Ed Eagle, MLB’s Pittsburgh Pirate beat writer, said this in his recent Mailbag:
So, assuming that Burnitz can once again play on an everyday basis — and that is admittedly a leap of faith on my part — I’m going to stick with my original guess that he’ll go deep somewhere around 30 times this season.
Is that the same Jeromy Burnitz that Gammon’s said something like ‘almost everyone believes he failed [Baltimore's] physical’? Naw.. it can’t be. Can it?
Let’s look at Burnitz’s career numbers at PNC park: .174/.276/.337 and 3 HR’s in 92 AB. Hmm.. if Burnitz was to get 250 AB at PNC, and considering his past performance there, he would hit just 8 HR’s.
I assume we are to believe that Burnitz will hit the other 22 HR’s on the road in his other 250 AB?? That is 1 HR every 11.36 AB. However, that is a feat he has never accomplished in his entire career.. the closest he got was at age 30 in Milwaukee when he hit 1 per 14 AB playing half his games at a 1.08 HR park factor park.
Shoot.. in 2004 playing for the Rockies in the NLWD smaller parks, he only averaged 1 HR per 15 AB. And, last year while playing for the Cubbies, he only managed 1 HR per 25 AB.. at age 36.
Now he is 37, playing 81 games at a .088 HR park factor park, in the pitching rich NLCD, and Eagle somehow feels he will triple his production on the road?
Shhh… let’s not tell Eagle Burnitz only hit .237/.300/.387 with 10 HR after the ASG last year. Oh.. and 7 of the 10 HR’s were at wind driven Wrigley Field, one at Coors, one at Great American Park, and the last at Busch — all of which combined equal a 1.08 HR park factor.
How do some of these writer’s get their jobs anyway.. kissing the owner’s hope baskets?
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