By Jake, on February 28, 2006, at 7:10 pm |
There is a lot of speculation floating around about Kip Wells. Will the Pirates release him? Do the Pirates have to keep him on the roster because his injury is work related? If released before March 15th, do they pay him 30-days termination salary? The questions are endless.
Initially, I believed Kip would be subjected to release and 30-day termination salary, as Dejan reported at the Post-Gazette (I should have known better right there, huh?).
Long time Pirate fan Mike Emeigh questioned my position so I decided to check with a front office official in MLB today. I was told this:
"My guess is that if they release him, Wells/his agent/the MLBPA will contest it and it will go to an arbitrator, at which point anything can happen, but most likely the sides will work out a settlement, probably one that favors the club (because it was not a guaranteed contract, so the onus is on the player’s side to produce affirmative evidence that the injury was caused by his earlier work)."
As I stated on the Pirates listserver, evidently, nothing is set in stone. Dejan has already reported what we can *assume* to be the Pirates position that they could release him and pay the 30-day termination fee.
That stated position also correlates with Littlefield’s initiatal press release, that Kip’s current injury is not related in any way to his previous injuries, to the thoughts expressed to me above.
Pirate fan Wilbur Miller, himself an attorney, responded to my post in the listserv with these thoughts:
"I think this is probably right. The "release the player because he [stinks]" clause gives the team a lot of leeway by saying "in the opinion of the Club’s management." I get the impression from the newspaper stories that there’s probably not a definitive answer on the cause of Wells’ injury. Since he’d have the burden of proof to show it was baseball-related, he wouldn’t be in a strong position, although he’d have enough of a case that it would probably be in the Pirates’ interest to settle.
I’ll be curious to see how this comes out.
The Pirates have shown more of an inclination to litigate lately than they did under Bonifay–they went to an arb. hearing with Jack Wilson (although they apparently have all gotten over it, as we’re seeing today), and the last I knew they also were litigating with Bobby Bradley."
Kip is back in Bradenton and seeking a second opinion. Good for him. Until we hear if Kip is going to pitch or have surgery, all we can do is continue to pray for him and his family.
By Jake, on February 27, 2006, at 8:27 pm |
The Pittsburgh Trib reported last night that the Pirates did not have insurance on Kip because he had a non-guaranteed contract. I did not know his contract wasn’t guaranteed.
That makes perfect sense because the cost of a policy with the deductible would have been about $1.6MM compared to the $692K if released by 3/15, and $1.04MM if released by 3/29. Further, insurance generally only pays off if the player misses the entire year. Lastly, we don’t even know if Kip was insurable because of his previous health issues.
Bob Moose, a Pittsburgh Pirate pitcher in the 70′s, also had the same condition Kip Wells has. Moose had a collapsed vein under his right collarbone and about May 29, 1974, had surgery. In Moose’s case, he had a rib removed that was causing compression of the vein. He eventually was back throwing in Bradenton late in the Fall and was able to start the next year with no problems.
I’m not a doctor so I spoke with a physician today who told me that Kip will likely be hospitalized immediately because the anticoagulation therapy used to treat Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS) is associated with future arm disability in as high as 70% of the cases. So, Kip needs to move quickly to reduce his exposure to the meds. He pointed me to several sites for more information but this one seemed to spell it out best for a medical dummy like myself: http://www.medschool.lsuhsc.edu/Neurosurgery/nervecenter/TOS.html.
Almost 2 months, 2 days, and 32 years since Moose had his surgery, Kip now faces the same procedure. Kip should be fine and ready for the 2007 season but don’t expect to see him this year.
Therefore, it seems likely the Pirates will release Kip and pay him 30-days termination pay, thereby losing all future value. The Pirates could resign him to a minor league contract after he passes through waivers just to keep some hope in his tank.
By Jake, on February 26, 2006, at 10:21 pm |
First, our blessings and prayers go out to Kip and his family. Nothing is scarier than having to worry about a medical condition.
It looks like Kip will be having surgery.. just not the UNC surgery I figured he’d have. So, scratch his name from the Pirates 25-man roster for 2006.
Sean Burnett will get the fourth spot if healthy out of spring training, but that is a huge IF right now. Knowing the Pirates front office ways under Littlefield, and the fact Sean has been throwing ok so far, I am going to assume Burnett is pushed to start the year in the rotation.
That leaves the fifth spot up for grabs among:
– Ian Snell, Victor Santos, Matt Capps (you didn’t know he could start?), and Ryan Vogelsong;
– long shots: Jonah Bayliss, Tom Gorzelanny (needs time in AAA), Brandon Duckworth, Terry Adams, and Giovanni Carrara (remember, Tracy likes this guy a lot);
– even longer shots: Matt Peterson, Bryan Bullington (late in the year), Damaso Marte (hasn’t started since 1999), and Marty McLeary;
– still even longer shots: Ron Chiavacci and CJ Nitkowski.
Pedro Astacio is the only starter left in the FA pool and he really isn’t any better than Santos. However, the Pirates could afford to go after Astacio if Wells opts for surgery (assuming Littlefield was intelligent enough to have purchased a risk management policy on Wells) because the Pirates will be about $3MM flush in cash after insurance pays Wells.
A trade for a starter would be difficult because several teams are in the hunt including the Astros, Nats, Rays, and Reds, among others.
Four teams seem to have an abundance of qualified MLB starters: A’s, Giants, Angels, and Braves. The Marlins also have an abundance, but of youth.
Our best trade partner looks to be the A’s for Joe Kennedy. Possibly a Craig Wilson package might sway them some since Swisher is their starting LF. The Marlins also need OF help but it will take a lot more than Craig to get one of their arms.
Hennessey with the Giants could be available. He hasn’t exactly lit up the majors with his work and his farm stats don’t suggest a long term stay as a starter in the bigs. However, the Giants need some relief help so maybe there is a potential deal there.
My take?
Pirates GM David Littlefield backed himself in the corner by diluting his starting rotation with the giveaway of Mark Redman and the release of Josh Fogg. Either of these two guys is superior to Victor Santos, despite their ills in 2005.
Further, Littlefield should have known he had injury risks in Oliver Perez (limited velocity in early 2005 and couldn’t find the plate all of 2005), Wells (lack of velocity and couldn’t find the plate in 2004 and 2005), Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten, and Byran Bullington (all coming off surgery), and Paul Maholm (tired elbow the end of 2005).
I feel Littlefield was negligent in trading Mark Redman because the end result was Burnitz being signed where Craig Wilson would have been a better pick to start anyway. Redman was our 2cd best full-time starter last year who simply blew up after his injuries set in mid-year. Had Mark received reasonable run support, he would have had a very strong first half.
Littlefield can only make more mistakes at this point: starting Gorzelanny, pushing Burnett notwithstanding his performance so far in spring training, starting Capps, or pushing a four-man rotation with Burnett, Perez, Duke, and Maholm.
If Burnett can’t start out the year in the rotation, Santos will take the fourth spot and Carrara, Snell, and Duckworth will be competing with Vogelsong for the fifth rotation spot. Don’t expect Snell to win, imo.
The 2006 Pirates aren’t going to contend and Littlefield knows this so don’t expect a trade or the Pirates to go after Astacio, albeit you might hear rumors in the Pittsburgh press.
Wells going down simply opens the door for Littlefield to say easier in July ‘look at the team – we aren’t competing’ as he starts his annual mid-year, blue light special, salary dump with Sean Casey.
Also expect the $3MM saved on Wells to be put in the bank for Ogden Nutting and company.
By Jake, on February 26, 2006, at 2:54 pm |
What day do you think Pirate pitching gave up the most home runs per day? Monday after a long weekend of partying? That was my guess too.
You are right.
|
HR per G |
# G |
| Monday |
1.42 |
17 |
| Saturday |
1.37 |
26 |
| Tuesday |
1.20 |
24 |
| Thursday |
1.13 |
18 |
| Sunday |
0.93 |
26 |
| Wednesday |
0.81 |
25 |
| Friday |
0.72 |
26 |
Other HR tidbits from 2005:
– 14 players combined to hit 52 HR’s at an average of 3.7 HR’s each. Talk about missing advance scouting!
– Opposing batters had a 37:63 strike-to-ball ratio while batting during HR AB. That indicates a lot of plate discipline waiting for their pitch to hit.
– 34 HR’s hit were hit on the 1st pitch and Lance Berkman did it twice.
– 43 HR’s were hit on the 2cd pitch.
– Some players like Aramis Ramirez never saw more than 2 pitches each HR AB.
– 72 (44%) of all HR’s were hit after a ball was last pitched:
| Swing-n-Miss |
5 |
| Foul Ball |
29 |
| Called Strike |
17 |
| Ball |
72 |
| 1st P |
34 |
| Throw to 1B |
5 |
– Batters put a HR in play after seeing an average of just 3.1 pitches per AB compared to 3.7 for all other AB. Don’t wait around do they?
By Jake, on February 26, 2006, at 1:37 am |
"One of the things Dave and I talked about in October was the way I viewed the Pirates — and this isn’t just about Craig Wilson — from my time in Los Angeles. One thing I noticed was the number of swings and misses. If you swing and miss that much, it really limits the pressure you put on the other team. If you play against another team that’s not very good defensively and you’re not putting the ball in play, you’re not exploiting an area of weakness." — Jim Tracy, January 26, 2006; emphasis added
I love it when the Post Gazette dumps these tidbits in the paper like they are supposed to mean something and we are to believe them just because the manager said it and the PG reported it.
Swings and misses, eh Jim? Ok.. let’s just look at the Pirates swings and misses in 2005. First, a simple table showing how many strikes Pirate batters swung at and missed in 2005:
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# Pitches |
% of NP |
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|
|
Called Strike |
3736 |
17% |
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|
Swing Miss |
2216 |
10% |
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Pirate batters saw 22,569 pitches in 2005 and 10% were swing and misses, which was close to league average. In 2004, they ranked 13th in the NL. So maybe Tracy meant swing and miss on the first pitch? Let’s see:
Hmm.. just 6% swing and miss strikes on an 0-0 first pitch count. That is very low. Maybe he was thinking of just one player? Or, maybe he was thinking of the Dodgers? Or maybe he was remembering something he read about the Rangers and their unbelievable 21% first pitch swing and miss rate?
Could be Tracy was thinking more about putting the ball in play? The problem with that is, the Pirates were 5th best in the NL last year with a 31% BIP average. They also had the 7th best BABIP at .301. Shh.. don’t tell Tracy, but the Pirates even beat the Dodgers in both categories.
If I was Tracy, I think I would be more worried about the amount of called strikes the batters are taking as 1 in 6 pitches buzzed by them to be called a strike last year. That is a lot of pitches to be behind on.
For the record, the Pirates saw 60% first pitch strikes in 2005. By strikes I am talking about the bat hit the ball, a strike was called, or the batter swung. That percentage has creeped up every year for the last 3. If I am a player, I am laying for 1st pitch fastballs next year. To heck with Tracy. But that’s my take..
By Jake, on February 26, 2006, at 12:48 am |
First, Freddy. It’s never any fun to take a shot off the body and yesterday was no different for Freddy. While batting, he fouled a pitch off his calf and was carted off in a golf cart with many of the fans cussing under their breath.
Freddy is ok.. he’ll be back in a few days after the swelling goes down.
Kip, well, Kip is Kip. He was off to St Louis to be checked out by his own specialist for vascular thoracic outlet syndrome (a compressed vein in his arm). He was feeling some finger pain after throwing Wednesday and he reported it to the team physician on Thursday. Littlefield didn’t buy it, it seems, and scheduled him to pitch batting practice on Friday.
But Kip had other plans and scheduled an appointment for Friday with his doc then told Littlefield who had to agree because he had no choice under the CBA.
There was talk after 2003 about Wells having an Ulnar nerve compression at the elbow and, by his tanking stats in 2004 and 2005, one has to wonder if it might not be true. Rumor was he pitched with a lot of hand pain the last half of 2005 so maybe the rumor was true.
Kip isn’t going to take any risk because he is in a contract year. If there is anything wrong with him, he’s going to force the org to get him straightened out right now, ala Kris Benson… no matter what David Littlefield thinks.
My gut feeling? Kip has been hurting for several years and refused to push the org and now feels more comfortable about doing so. Kip’s stats suggest a medical issue.. especially in 2005 from a lack of velocity and inability to find the plate. I would guess Kip will hang out as long as he can to start the year and then take off and go have his UNC surgery. But that’s my take..
By Jake, on February 25, 2006, at 2:45 am |
Yep… maybe.
The Pirates have begun "preliminary discussions" with the Reds about building a joint sports complex in Sarasota. The Reds facility use contract expires in 2008 in Sarasota and the Pirates facility use contract in Bradenton expires in 2011, so unless the City of Bradenton is going to let the Pirates bail, I don’t see this happening anytime soon.
However, there has been a lot of controversy surrounding the installation of lights at McKechnie Field over the last year in Bradenton.
First, the cost was estimated at over $1MM back in April last year and funding was approved by the Bradenton Tourism Council. That approval was based on two factors:
-
The Pirates would extend their facility use contract with the city for an additional 15 years; and
-
Funding for the lights would come from an in-place 4% tourism tax which already funds renovations at the stadium.
When the Tourism Council presented their recommendation to the City Council, it was tabled and has yet to resurface that I can find.
Then in October, Bradenton Mayor Wayne Poston came out and said the city was against the Tourism Council’s funding plan and they were talking with the Pirates about getting it done ‘other ways’.
Now the Cinci Post article.
I don’t know if the City of Bradenton and the Pirates have worked anything out the last few months or not. There hasn’t been a press release in Florida I could find and Dejan’s article last month simply said:
"The 68-room dormitory at Pirate City, closed since May because of mold infestation, will be torn down and replaced by next spring training, according to Trevor Gooby, the Pirates’ director of Florida operations… Gooby said the plan of the Bradenton government — which owns the complex — could include lights for nearby McKechnie Field, the only stadium in the Grapefruit League limited to day games, as well as a fifth practice field for Pirate City." — emphasis added
Seems to me the Pirates are simply telling the City of Bradenton ‘No lights.. no Pirates.. c-ya". Sound familiar? Yeah.. it has a certain Marlin ring tone to it, doesn’t it? "No stadium.. no Marlins.. c-ya".
More on this as it develops from emails I have out.
Thanks to Reds blogger Red Hot Mama for the tip. Check her site out.. whoa!
By Jake, on February 24, 2006, at 1:13 am |
Baseball America released their top 100 prospects for 2006 and there were few surprises except for possibly Chris Young jumping up a ton of notches from 2005.
I often hear Pirate fans say ‘oh, I wish we had taken him instead’ when looking over Top prospect lists. I know I shiver everytime I hear Steven Drew’s name mentioned remembering Jack will be gone after 2007. Anyway, to make it easy for all of us wishers, I have listed BA’s top 50 along with who we took instead.
n/a = this was a draft pick ahead of ours that year so not applicable;
By Jake, on February 23, 2006, at 2:54 pm |
Baseball Analysts Column Today
Swinging and Missing
"Brad Eldred takes the top spot by a whopping margin on the strength of striking out 77 times in 190 at bats, a rate that even Rob Deer would appreciate. He also saw fewer pitches per plate appearance than league average, which is not good when you swing and miss as much as he did resulting in just 13 walks and a .221/.279/.458 line."
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PA |
P/PA |
Miss/P |
|
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Brad Eldred |
208 |
3.6 |
24.40% |
|
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Russell Branyan |
242 |
4.2 |
19.10% |
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Wily Mo Pena |
335 |
3.8 |
19.00% |
|
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Jason Dubois |
202 |
3.8 |
18.70% |
|
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Carlos Pena |
295 |
3.9 |
17.90% |
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Dallas McPherson |
220 |
3.8 |
17.70% |
|
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Miguel Olivo |
281 |
3.7 |
17.10% |
|
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Humberto Cota |
320 |
3.6 |
16.30% |
|
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Dustan Mohr |
293 |
3.8 |
16.20% |
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Jeff Francoeur |
274 |
3.4 |
15.90% |
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2005 Lack of Plate Discipline Leaders
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PA |
P/PA |
PD |
|
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Brad Eldred |
208 |
3.6 |
51 |
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Jeff Francoeur |
274 |
3.4 |
53 |
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Angel Berroa |
652 |
3.4 |
54 |
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Humberto Cota |
320 |
3.6 |
55 |
|
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Ivan Rodriguez |
525 |
3.3 |
58 |
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Miguel Olivo |
281 |
3.7 |
59 |
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Jason Dubois |
202 |
3.8 |
60 |
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Corey Patterson |
483 |
3.4 |
61 |
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AJ Pierzynski |
497 |
3.6 |
62 |
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Johnny Estrada |
383 |
3.3 |
62 |
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I guess we should be proud of Brian Graham’s accomplishments in player development. Oh man..
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