By Jake, on February 22, 2007, at 9:17 pm |
We often hear that "X" player would do much better if he just got repetitive at bats. That thought always conflicted with what I was told as a player years ago by my old baseball coach – that good players hit, no matter what.
So I went over to Baseball-Reference.com and looked up the statistics on our main position players from 2001-2006 to see what I could find out. I decided to use 3 plate appearances per game as the key and then made my cut at 10 consecutive games.
I ended up with two groups.. the first group had the stats for each time period a player played 11 or more consecutive games where he had 3 or more plate appearances per game, and the second group had all the time periods with less than 3 appearances or less than 10 consecutive games played.
To give you an idea of what I ended up with, between 2001-2006 Jason Bay had 7 time periods where he didn’t get 11 or more consecutive games of 3 or more plate appearances, and 6 where he did [link].
 This first chart shows the overall batting average for each player, in each group.
For instance, when Freddy Sanchez had 11 or more (>=11) consecutive games of 3 or more plate appearances, he batted .327 in 796 at bats.
When he didn’t get 3 or more plate appearances in 11 or more games, or didn’t play in at least 11 consecutive games, his batting average fell to .286.
So with Freddy, my coach’s statement that ‘good hitter’s hit no matter what’ seems true. But the repetitive at bat theory holds water here too.
However, look at Jason Bay. He hit .290 or better in both groups, despite having only 85 at bats in the <=10 group. So much for the repetitive at bats theory with him but my coach’s theory still held water.
How about Adam LaRoche.. in his case, repetitive at bats significantly enhanced his batting average. If my old coach is right about good hitter’s, then perhaps there is some bias in the >=11 games at bats LaRoche did get, like against mainly right-hand pitching? It’s certainly possible because he was obviously platooned a lot based on the at bat splits in the two groups, and he didn’t hit anywhere near as well in the <=10 games group.
No matter, even when not getting consecutive at bats, LaRoche’s .268 batting average was still as good or better than 6 of the remaining 10 players who did get repetitive at bats. For the Pirates, anyway, it really doesn’t matter.
So the repetitive at bat theory seems to be true for marginal players, and the statement that good hitter’s hit no matter what seems to be true for better hitters. At least that is what the first chart seems to indicate.
What’s going on with Duffy above? I haven’t a clue except to guess his split is due to how often he was platooned when first called up. And poor Nate McLouth, he has yet to play 11 consecutive games getting three or more plate appearances.
At this point I threw away the <=10 group and concentrated on the >=11 games group to see who the leaders were in various categories. Remember now, each player had multiple time periods of >=11 games, so the chart below lists the top 5 and bottom 5 time period results for each category.
Realize that a consecutive time period can end the last game of the year and continue with the first game the next year. The start and end columns are the time period dates.
Enjoy!
By Jake, on February 21, 2007, at 10:31 pm |
I saw the "I Love Jack" column the Stats Geek wrote yesterday and I heard the rumblings about Castillo taking grounders at 3B away from the starters today.
Am I supposed to believe any of that means something? I guess a lot of fans do because my in-box is littered with fantasies.
I’m not going to deny Freddy Sanchez will glove about the same amount of balls at 2B as Jose Castillo will – their career range factors at the position are nearly identical. And I won’t deny that Sanchez will play a more conservative, mostly error-free second base. He will.
The simple fact of the matter is, Castillo committing 13 more errors at 2B over the year will net the opposition about 6 extra runs. However as I’ve shown you [link], the fact Sanchez’s arm is not respected by NL teams and base runners run like water running downhill on him, that will net opposing teams 3 to 4 times what Castillo’s extra errors will.
It’s no-brainer who plays 2B. None.. zip. I don’t even understand why this is being discussed.
Look at it another way – the Pirates 2B saw 4.3% fewer balls hit in his zone than the average 2B in MLB last year. Our 3B saw 1.7% more. If Jim Tracy puts Sanchez at 2B, he’s now gloving 6% fewer balls, his arm is allowing runners to run at will, and he produced 4% less double plays in the pivot than Castillo last year.
Add it up.
Then add in Bautista’s shocking career .938 fielding percentage taking all those extra plays at 3B and, well, you have a royal mess.
Who cares if Castillo makes a few extra errors when his cannon arm keeps runners on the bases and not scoring? Who cares if Castillo makes a few more errors if his cannon arm nets us more double plays? Who cares if he hit .253 last year when Bautista hit .235, and only .207 after the break?
It isn’t even close folks.
One email I received suggested a Bautista/Castillo home/away platoon with Bautista playing at home. In 266 at bats at PNC Park, Bautista has a .229 batting average. I suggest folks look at Bautista’s career .188 batting average with runners in scoring position and the fact the .188 falls to .078 when there are two outs. I suppose nobody is looking as these things.
Bautista playing is a media-drummed up fantasy.
Sure, it’s sexy to think about Freddy Sanchez playing 2B with his buddy Jack at SS. That’s neat, huh?
Mark this down.. if Bautista plays 3B with Sanchez at 2B in 2006 for more than 70 games, this team will lose closer to 95 than 90.
No matter how much the local media attempts to portray Bautista as the Pirates savior, Jim Tracy isn’t going to put the young man in the position to find out. Tracy wants to win – he doesn’t want to just give games away.
Castillo at 2B.. always has been, always will be. This isn’t even worth discussing anymore.. I’ll let the media hype events to sell their papers.
Perhaps what the local media should have done is questioned why Dave Littlefield didn’t acquire a replacement 3B that is better than Bautista or a 2B better than Castillo over the winter? I mean, we’re sitting here wondering which below-average player should start next year.. a no-bat, no-glove 3B, or a mild-bat, mild-glove 2B?
How ridiculous is that?
For those that requested the break down of the number of ground balls fielded overall by each position last year, it’s below along with how much higher or lower that position ranked compared to the league average for the position last year.
Notice a total of 4.5% more grounders fielded by our SS and 3B and 6.3% fewer on the right-side of the infield.
|
% +/- |
2006 |
|
from MLB |
# Fielded |
| Pos |
League Ave |
by Pirates |
|
|
|
| P |
1.1 |
199 |
| C |
0.5 |
28 |
| 1B |
-2.0 |
183 |
| 2B |
-4.3 |
351 |
| 3B |
1.7 |
414 |
| SS |
2.8 |
553 |
| LF |
-0.2 |
128 |
| CF |
0.3 |
142 |
| RF |
0.0 |
107 |
By Jake, on February 21, 2007, at 12:13 am |
Yesterday’s Stats Geek article in the Post-Gazette [link] had this statement:
"Another clue that last year’s [double play rate] drop was more Castillo’s fault is that he played the equivalent of 139 nine-inning games, the most by far in his career, and Wilson played 127, the fewest since his rookie year."
The Stats Geek essentially stated that it was more Castillo’s fault that fewer double plays were turned last year by Jack Wilson. I was curious if his analysis was true so I spun up my SPSS and plugged in Retrosheet’s data for 2006 [link].
I decided to test the statement measuring the result of the two most basic scenarios in baseball where a shortstop and second baseman have to work together to create a double play:
1) Runner at 1B with 2B empty, less than 2 outs, and a ground ball is hit to either player; and
2) Runners at 1B and 2B, less than 2 outs, and a ground ball is hit to either player.
I made sure Wilson and Castillo were on the field together and I decided to normalize the results by adding back in the percentage of errors made by the other player.
The results:
|
Runner 1B Only |
Other Player’s |
Rate |
|
DP Made |
Error Rate |
Total |
| MLB Median 2B |
96.3% |
0.9% |
97.2% |
| Castillo |
95.5% |
1.9% |
97.4% |
| difference |
-0.8% |
1.0% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
| MLB Median SS |
54.7% |
0.9% |
55.6% |
| Wilson |
68.5% |
0.0% |
68.5% |
| difference |
13.8% |
-0.9% |
12.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Runner 1B & 2B |
Other Player’s |
Rate |
|
DP Made |
Error Rate |
Total |
| MLB Median 2B |
93.4% |
2.5% |
95.9% |
| Castillo |
83.3% |
8.3% |
91.6% |
| difference |
-10.1% |
5.8% |
-4.3% |
|
|
|
|
| MLB Median SS |
59.3% |
1.2% |
60.5% |
| Wilson |
62.5% |
0.0% |
62.5% |
| difference |
3.2% |
-1.2% |
2.0% |
Castillo showed his weakness when there was a man at 1B and 2B – he ended up with a normalized rate -4.3% below the league average second baseman last year. And that was despite adding back in Wilson’s 8.3% error rate on his plays.
But the value difference between -4.3% and the league average of 0 is just 1/2 an error. That’s right.. 1/2 an error. As it turns out, the only other error made was by Castillo himself.
Jack Wilson, on the other hand, came out smelling like roses turning double plays just as the Stats Geek suggested he might. With a runner at only 1B, he was 12.9% better than a normalized league average shortstop, and 2% better with men on 1B and 2B.
It’s true that Wilson’s INN/DP did drop 19% in 2006 from 2005.. the equivalent of 17 fewer turned. The Geek didn’t tell us why Wilson’s double play rate dropped last year other than to suggest it was Castillo’s fault.
But that simply isn’t true. Here’s a few reasons why:
1) Jack Wilson had a .837 Zone Rating in 2006 versus an .885 Zone Rating in 2005, which was his career high year by a considerable .026 points. That meant Wilson reached 6% fewer balls in his zone last year resulting in 38 more balls in play floating past him to the outfield. Castillo reached 0.8% less.. just 5 fewer than his 2005 season average which is pretty steady gloving year-to-year.
When you consider Wilson turned a DP every 7.4 total chances he had in his zone in 2006, that meant he lost 5 double plays simply because he didn’t stop the ball.
That’s not Castillo’s fault.
2) Wilson committed one error every 63 innings last year versus one every 93 innings in 2005 resulting in 7 additional errors in 2006 when you normalize innings played. Castillo’s error rate was 1 every 69 innings in 2006 versus 1 every 70 innings in 2005. That is also fairly stable work.
But 5 of Wilson’s 18 errors came when he was turning a double play last year versus just 1 in 2005. That’s four more he lost.
That’s not Castillo’s fault either.
While Wilson might have made 17 less double plays in 2006, we’ve identified no less than 9 being his own fault, and that’s more than half. Plus, we haven’t even looked at all the other variables that influenced Wilson’s inability to produce double plays from his 2005 rate.
Yet, consider this — Jack Wilson turned one double play every 12.8 innings last year and, of the 24 qualified shortstops in baseball who played more than 998 innings, Wilson’s INN/DP rate was still 11% above league average [link].
Comparatively, Wilson was 22% above league average turning double plays in 2005. But guess what, if you add the nine we know he missed in 2006 to the 88 he did turn, Wilson’s 2006 DP rate would jump all the way to 19% above league average, just 3% short of his 2005 rate.
But hold on, there’s even more – the league average double play rate for the 24 qualified shortstops in 2006 decreased by 5% from 2005.
No matter how you look at it, Wilson’s DP rate in 2006 was excellent considering his error rate and zone rating. Still, Castillo played steady league average defense both years.
Therefore, the Stats Geek should have been pointing the accusing finger toward Jack Wilson on the left-side of the diamond, not Castillo on the right-side of the diamond, if a finger was raised and pointed any where at all.
Besides, since the Wilson/Castillo team actually produced double plays well above league average rate last year, I’m not so sure I understand why anyone is even pointing a finger at all.
The Stats Geek then said:
"On fielding ground balls, however, Wilson is among the best and Castillo the worst.."
I’ll stop right here because that statement is so overgeneralized it isn’t even worth debating. I love the Geek’s articles, but sometimes. . .
By Jake, on February 20, 2007, at 1:13 am |
After I looked at Salomon Torres as a potential closer last week [link], I received a lot of email asking me to look harder at Torres in a few areas. Specifically, everyone wanted to know how he had done over the years closing games out as well as when he came into a game starting the inning off.
That made a lot of sense.
I also received a couple of emails from folks in the game suggesting that I look harder at Torres when pitching at home versus away because I had painted Torres as a poor reliever on the road, which none of them believed was true.
This article looks at all three of those suggestions. I used Retrosheet’s wonderful data for the statistics for this article [link].
Let’s begin by looking at Torres when he started an inning off in a game. That chart is below:
Chart Notes: the Earned Runs Allowed column includes runners that were bequest to a reliever and who ultimately scored earned, and the Middle Inn Flag tells us how many times Torres had to be relieved in the middle of an inning.
You can see that the emails I received from those in the game had validity because Torres had a 0.36 / 0.18 split on runs allowed per game in home and away games 2005-2006. That’s huge, just as they suggested.
We can also see that Torres had a 0.06 reduction in runs allowed per game from 2005 to 2006. Just as interesting is the 20% rate Torres was removed in the middle of an inning between 2005-2006.
Now, let’s look at how Torres has done closing out games:
Here we see the same significant split in home and away games between 2005 and 2006. In fact, the rate is nearly three times higher. That is even higher than in the first chart where the split was double.
You will also notice the significant drop in the runs allowed per game between 2005 and 2006 – a 50% decrease primarily because he closed 16% fewer games at home in 2006.
If we compare the year 2006 in both charts, we see Torres allowed 0.25 runs per game in both, so it’s a good bet he’s going to be close to that in 2007 if he closes both home and away games.
With these figures in hand, let’s project how Torres will do closing if he appears in 65 games.. 65 games times 0.25 runs allowed = 16 runs projected for the year. Twelve of the sixteen should be from away games at the 2-1 ratio we found above.
That sounds pretty good until you consider that Mike Gonzalez only gave up 2 earned runs in the 24 games he saved last year (that would be the equivalent of 5.4 runs over 65 games).
As a better example, you might remember cringing everytime you saw Jose Mesa heading toward the mound to close a game in 2004? He only allowed 13 runs over the 65 games he finished that year. But do you remember telling yourself in 2004: if we aren’t winning by more than two runs when Mesa takes the mound, we’ll probably lose?
Many fans did.
Torres has considerably better numbers on the road as we saw above. In 24 games, he gave up just 5 runs last year when finishing a game. But even that rate of runs allowed is 2 1/2 times higher than Gonzalez’s last year.
That’s not good folks. Considering this team figures to play a lot of close games, that’s even more concerning.
No matter how you slice it or dice it, the fans seem to be in for a nail-biting year in tight games with Torres closing for us, especially at home.
There are some variables that could influence how well Torres performs next year, and some of those might be swinging in our favor more so than in previous years — the team could play better defensive behind our closer, we could have more of a lead in the 9th, or we just might find more luck.
Of course, Cam Bonifay was fired as the General Manager in 2001 waiting for those exact same events to occur, and his replacement, Dave Littlefield, has yet to experience those events in his five and one-half year tenure either.
But hey, the team’s slogan is "We Will" so maybe this is the year they finally will? We’ll see. In the meantime, I’m getting my net ready in case I happen to see a pig flying over head.
By Jake, on February 19, 2007, at 4:02 am |
I was chatting over at one of the Pirates discussion forums when I ran across a post that made the hair on the back of my neck stick up. The topic was about the rash of injuries in the Pirates farm system over the last 5+ years and whether or not it was unusual.
As I read through the thread I ran across a long-time Pirate fan who posted this message:
‘"[he quoted a third poster here] However, I do tend to suspect that the percentage of it happening with the Bucs is (as our 14 year bad streak would have it) pretty much higher than with other teams."’
"[he then said] I used to think the same thing until I read this article……. www.post-gazette.com/pg/05030/450078.stm As it turns out, the Pirates are no worse than any other team."
I followed the link to the January, 2005, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette article where they said:
"American Specialty, an insurance company based in Roanoke, Ind., is the official outfit used by Major League Baseball to conduct a thorough accounting of injuries. It measures the impact on disabled lists and gives additional weight to season-ending or career-ending injuries, and it includes every player in the system down to rookie ball. It is the industry’s most comprehensive study of such matters.
In the most recent survey, released after the 2003 season, the Pirates had the fifth-best rating for keeping their pitchers healthy in the five-year span leading up to it.
Yes, fifth-best."
To the casual baseball fan the information in the article had to be accurate because it was in a newspaper.
Right?
But it wasn’t accurate. Nor was it complete.
The truth was, Major League Baseball tossed American Specialty out the door after their last annual study in 2003 and the book they published each year – the Redbook – ceased to exist.
The Post-Gazette article also didn’t mention that American Specialty measured the Pirates ‘fifth-best rating for keeping their pitchers healthy in the five-year span’ based on two factors:
1) the amount of time players spent on the disabled list; and
2) the amount of money American Specialty paid to each club for players who were disabled, or, how much the organization paid out on their own.
Those are key facts missing from that article.
The low budget Pirates came in ranked so well because they simply don’t buy insurance on players because they rarely, if ever, sign players to lengthy contracts. That’s a no-brainer.. few low budget teams can [link] and [link].
Further, small-market teams experience injuries in the farm system at significantly higher rates than large-market teams do [link]. Think about that a minute – can you recall the Yankees spending $10m per year on a player in the 90′s who broke down three weeks into the season? Rarely.
That is important because the season in the minor league’s is thirty days shorter than in the majors and so there are typically fewer disabled days racked up against small-market teams.
I find it fascinating that so many baseball fans read a newspaper and believe every word it says. The Post-Gazette article above wasn’t intentionally deceiving – it simply didn’t tell you everything you needed to know to make rational decision on whether it was wasted print or not.
But that’s my point – newspapers can’t run a research journal every time they print an article.. it would cost too much. You have to balance what you do know against what you feel. If you think the Pirates have had a higher amount of pitching injuries than other teams have had, you might be right.. they probably have.
ESPN did a nice story showing a 54% increase in the number of players going on the disabled list between 1991 and 2001 [link]. In the article ESPN said:
"[T]he [2003] Redbook shows it is primarily pitchers whose rate of injury continues to accelerate. The theory here is that managers are asking pitchers, who face more powerful hitters and throw more breaking balls than ever, to do too much work when their arms are tired. "Virtually every pitching injury is an overuse injury," says Dr. Glenn Fleisig, head of research at the American Sports Medicine Institute in Birmingham, Ala."
Now, when you think about whether or not the rate at which pitchers are falling by the wayside in the Pirates organization is unusual or not, remember what the Post-Gazette article said, and then start thinking about what Dr. Fleisig said above.
For instance, Brad Lincoln’s total innings pitched count in college:
2004 – Freshman 56 IP
2005 – Sophomore 102 IP plus 54 IP in the Cape Cod League
2006 – Junior 127 IP plus 23 IP Pirates
The 156 IP for Lincoln in 2005 was 100 more than he pitched in 2004 [link]. There is no bigger red flag on a pitcher’s potential for arm problem than innings worked year to year, and 100 more one year to the next is mind-boggling.
Then throw in the fact he was playing every game for Houston in 2005 and 2006 as a 1B if not pitching, and he couldn’t possibily build into his schedule normal arm strengthening routines to save his arm [link]. That’s a red flag the size of Texas over him when the Pirates drafted him in 2006.
Today he sits in Bradenton shut down with an arm problem. What did Dr. Fleisig say? That’s right – overuse is the biggest contributor to pitching injuries. Under use of all available information is the biggest contributor to incomplete newspaper articles that tend to lead you down the wrong track.
Stick to your hunches.. they are probably right more often than not.
By Jake, on February 18, 2007, at 12:06 am |
Time to get to some of the email hanging around:
"We have enjoyed your buccoblog articles about the Hickory players this past season. Our grandson has been assigned to Lynchburg Hillcats to start the 2007 season. We will be following him in Lynchburg, but will also be reading your blog to keep up with his friends that stayed in Hickory." — J &W
All the credit goes to John Setzler, J & W. It was his hard work and dedication that provided every Pirate fan with a candid view to the Crawdad’s team.
I have received quite a few emails from family members over the last year hoping we could expand our coverage in the minor leagues so they could follow their kin a bit closer.
Since early 2005, I have attempted to put together a group of journalists and photographers from every city the Pirates had an affiliate in to bring together unparalleled coverage in our farm system. I have only been semi-successful, as you have seen. But I am still trying.
If you are a writer or photographer in Indianapolis, Altoona, Lynchburg, or State College, drop me an email. Perhaps we can work out a stringer position.
"I’m not sold on anything we have for right field. With the addition of LaRoach a real upgrade at his position, it makes the spotlight on right field brighter, with hardly any real choices. What’s the answer?" — LM
I think Dave Littlefield is comfortable with Xavier Nady this year. We know he had an emergency appendectomy at the end of May last year and quickly returned to the field by June 18th. His stats in June and July weren’t very exciting as you would expect.
August rolled around and he put together the best month of his career with a .359/.411/.466 line over 103 at bats. Those that believed all Nady needed was repetitive at bats to come out of his shell seemed to be right.
Then September hit and Nady tanked like a lead ball in water managing just 21 hits in 96 at bats for a .219 batting average. Some say he tired out because it was the first year he had amassed over 330 at bats in one year – he had 468, and others suggested it was the surgery that eventually wore him out.
Nady is going to see more at bats against right-hand pitching this year than he has ever faced in his career if he starts all year, and that has been his weakness. He will also be fielding a lot more balls in play than even he could dream about as a right fielder with all the southpaws we are going to feature this year. Unfortunately, Nady is not known for his glove, but he does have a better than average arm.
For right now, I think Littlefield has to give Nady at bats in right and watch his defensive play. If he starts killing us with his glove, as some fans believe he might, then you might see Littlefield move on a trade for someone like Jacque Jones. And don’t rule out Littlefield acquiring someone before opening day.. there will be quite a few players dropped from rosters before day one.
"Jake, I have two questions:
1. Why are you so down on Bautista? I know he had a .235 avg last year, but it was his first true year in the majors absent his rule 5 stint and he was second on the team last year in drawing walks, something the Pirates desperately needed. I know that only makes his .235 avg worse, but if it comes around then his power will surely increase as well.
2. I am now intrigued! Can you tell what I will have to do with MLB.Tv upon ordering? Will I purchase it and then spend the rest of the year trying to figure out what I have to download to get the thing to work? It causes me great anxiety, but if it is cheaper or close to DirectTV then perhaps I will give it a shot." — BW
1) It’s not that I am down on Bautista, it’s that he is a player I believe who would have been better served remaining in AAA and seasoning offensively, as well as developing defensively, instead of riding some pine time in Pittsburgh.
In the first half of the season he benefited from opposing pitchers not worrying about him and he blasted 10 home runs in 120 at bats. He also showed remarkable patience at the plate.
By the second half of the season, the teams had became a bit more concerned about his power and started handcuffing him, and he was never able to make the adjustments to get out of the rut. He also lost his patience.
Because he isn’t a gap hitter – more of a flyball hitter, and because his plate patience is thin, he simply does not exciting me. I just don’t see much growth opportunity for him offensively.
Defensively, he is below average at 3B and in right field, which reinforces my belief that he needs to be in Indy this year.. not competing for a role he’ll never win or, if he does, the team suffers greatly as a result.
2) MLB.tv is extremely simple to use. On game day you click a link and a browser window pops up with an embedded media player that plays the game for you. You will need speakers to hear the broadcast.
There is nothing to download unless you sign up for the premium package and want to watch more than one game at a time. Then you can download Mosaic, which is a very simple install as well. You won’t have any problems.
"I saw your article the other day about Salomon Torres closing. Is he really that bad?" — HT
I had a lot of email from that article and the majority of it asked for me to look at how Torres did when he came in starting off an inning. I’ll have that result in the next few days. The results might shock us all, who knows.
One reader suggested that Torres has some Snell pitching blood in him.. when he is exposed to more than 5 batters in an inning (Snell’s number has been 80 per game), he gets raked. That makes sense but only because if a pitcher comes in and is still on the mound facing the sixth batter that inning, something is not going right anyway. So much for that thought.
Look for the new article by Monday night. I’ll be able to tell you better then.
"I know you were an ex-catcher so I want to ask, how many earned runs would our staff save if we had a pro catcher behind the plate instead of Paulino?" — SK
Tough call, SK. Certainly some runs. One of the biggest problems Paulino had last year as a rookie receiver was that umpires didn’t believe him because he was a mitt waiver for more than half the year.
Paulino has to gain the trust and respect of the men in blue and it won’t happen in one or two seasons. I believe this hurt our staff more than Paulino’s passed balls did last year. And it will be a problem again in 2007. Some umps just don’t like rookie catchers and you aren’t going to get a borderline call from them if your life depends on it.
On the flip side, our staff has a habit of missing the plate way too much anyway and the men in blue know that. They will remember that this year too and it is going to influence some calls. Our starters *have* to pitch to contact better and trust their defense more.
Paulino’s game management skills were very poor most the year and that hurt us too. He would call for 3-2 or 2-0 offspeed stuff or ask for a heater on a 1-2 count way too often. Our battery has to be given a better plan by Jim Colborn and our pitcher’s have to be more aggressive shaking off Paulino if they aren’t comfortable with the call.
To answer your question, I would guess as many as 50 runs SK. Perhaps a lot more.
By Jake, on February 17, 2007, at 12:48 am |
Yes – I saw the Post-Gazette article about Brad Lincoln being shut down for the short term [link].
Don’t forget, Lincoln was also shut down last year with a strained oblique so I don’t find this report odd at all. It’s not uncommon for a young pitcher to alter his mechanics and/or habits worrying about re-injuring himself, thus leading to a different ailment.
Depending on the location of the discomfort in the elbow, the Pirates will either just let him rest a few days and then get him back throwing some toss and see how he feels, or ask Lincoln to take an MRI. If he heads off to get an MRI, then the Pirates are concerned about ligament and/or nerve damage, or else they want to see if there is any inflammation.
The last thing the Pirates want is this — > [link].
Readers who have followed Bucco Blog already know that Lincoln was considered by some scouts to be profiled as a reliever [link] anyway so what can we lose? Ok – don’t shoot the messenger. But don’t forget, Lincoln has the Pirates mark of the Beast [link].
UPDATE: The Post-Gazette is reporting tonight [link] that:
"All that is known is that there is a strained muscle in the forearm.."
That’s not encouraging folks.
We’ll see if the Pirates have him take an MRI since they are talking about him resting for a few weeks, which is about the amount of time it takes for the dye to wear out of his system if he does.
–
The same Post-Gazette article that featured Lincoln’s ailment also stated that Dave Littlefield has finally decided to move Neil Walker out from behind the plate. That’s the good news. We saw this coming in mid-December when Littlefield signed David Parrish, if you remember [link].
The bad news is, as I have stated here several times, it’s much too late to start Walker off at a new position [link] expecting him to be in Pittsburgh in 2008. Littlefield should have thought about this move in early 2005, not late 2005 [link], which would have allowed him all of 2006 to develop. Now he is one full year behind.
–
I just signed up for the MLB.tv Premium package at $120 for the season. My first reaction was, why should I have to pay $40 more per year just to get a higher resolution picture from MLBAM? They should be offering that as a product upgrade for free.
But then I tried it. Wow!
I put my Sony laptop on top of the coffee table and plugged in the HDMI cable to my Sony 40" flat screen and brought up the 700k demo that MLB is offering [link - go to the lower right land corner] and man-oh-man, the quality was much better than I had last year. I can’t wait to see their 1.5MB rate stream – it will be like I am sitting in the park.
I was a beta-tester with MLB’s Mosaic product last year and I wasn’t impressed, to be quite honest. For one thing, it installed SwarmCast on my computer without my approval or knowledge and that opened a door for hackers I didn’t want open. I discussed the issue with MLB techies and they assured me it was safe, but I’ve been around the web too long to believe all that. A door open, is a door open.
The other reason I didn’t like it was because it should have come with a photo seizure warning.
Really.
I mean, there’s something about having a bunch of small little screens all running different content that sets your brain into overdrive mode.
This year they are offering an enhanced version where you can pull up six high resolution games side-by-side. You’ll definitely need to be sure and have some seizure meds around for that.
One of the new features they are offering this year is an alert notification system so when your favorite player comes to bat, you’ll hear an audible signal.
They are also throwing in the $14.95 radio programming for free in the MLB.tv packages this year, which is nice when you want to listen to a blacked out game. You also get a 365 day subscription instead of a 183 day subscription like last year. That means you get to see everything from spring training games to the post-season for the same price.
It’s a great package and it features a lot of programming for the money, to be sure. To heck with the dish.
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Now I know why my son and I have been so sick over the last month – that creamy wonder called Peter Pan [link]. For a week we thought my three year-old just had a case of the stomach flu that was floating around up North. He was so violently ill it was scary. My sickness was a crampy belly, being tired, loose bowels, and feeling God awful.
Little did we know.
If you aren’t aware of the ongoing problem, follow the link in the last paragraph. Essentially, all Peter Pan peanut butter made since May 2006 could be salmonella-contaminated. Trust me, some of it is.. my son and I know.
Go right now and see if you have Peter Pan on your shelf with the 2111 Product Code on the lid. If you do, toss it.
So much for chicken noodle soup, peanut butter on bread or crackers, and 7Up for an upset belly day, after day, after day. Ughh…
By Jake, on February 16, 2007, at 2:24 am |
Phase one of spring training brings all sorts of players to camp early: those out of shape, the broken down ones, wannabe players, and, of course, the pitchers and catchers.
Last year in January we were all wondering why Jose Castillo wasn’t asked to participate in mini camp by Dave Littlefield. After all, he tore his left knee MCL in August 2005 and never played another game that year. And, although he was on the Venezuelan World Baseball Classic roster in February 2006, Littlefield asked him not to play, so he didn’t.
As you can probably guess, Castillo reported to camp in February almost 20 pounds overweight, started the season off with a .571 batting average, and then proceeded to tank to .217 by May 7th. As Castillo tanked, so did the team, who were 9-24 on the day Castillo hit rock bottom.
This year minicamp was blown off by Littlefield because the there was a timing conflict with PirateFest.
So here we are – phase one of spring training where the players typically spend time meeting the press. You’ll hear statements such as "I like our chances this year.. we might win 100 games", or "I feel great – best shape ever".
This phase typically lasts a week but might extend out a little longer this year with all the press wondering if Masumi Kuwata is going to have a heart attack, shower with Dial soap, or eat pickled pig’s feet at the Crab Shack.
Phase two typically starts separating out those players who are clueless on training methods, or who came to camp out of shape. Hamstring injuries are common in this stage, back problems with pitchers often occurs, and oblique strains by the boat load are all seen.
The third phase is the best one of all.. position players report and the camp becomes a bit testy as they get all the attention from the press while the pitchers run to ice down their shoulders and the catchers run for bandaids.
In this phase, fan comments like "I didn’t know Jack Wilson was that small" start to pop up around Bradenton. Then the annual Pittsburgh Post-Gazette rah-rah article is run telling us all about how Wilson and Castillo took 4 more double play balls in fielding practice than the coach wanted, how so many balls are being hit over the fences it’s just unbelievable, and the direction the team is taking is just remarkable.
Of course, they won’t tell you the wind was blowing 30 mph toward center field, or how Castillo and Wilson really needed 1,000 more grounders – not four, or that the gel in the locker room was more like F Troop.
When the pitchers finally take the mound you start hearing "whoops" and "watch OUT!" a lot, as the batters run for cover. One minute the pitchers will be teeing off, the next minute batters will be trying to hit the ball through the open side of the pitcher’s net to get even.
Then the belonging stage of this phase begins trying to turn all the loose cannons into a team. There is bowling with Jack Wilson, golfing with Littlefield, and drinking with.. with.. hey, Mesa and Burnitz are gone. I wonder who will be the drinking leader this year?
Finally phase four takes root and the Pirates start playing games. This is when we hear all the competition themes like Burnett believing he’s better than anyone in the rotation, or the press pitting player against player to fill a position the front office had long decided who would win.
This is also the time where the fans start to see which players have some pull with the front office as they are typically the ones who don’t have to ride the team bus two to three hours each way to play exhibition games in Orlando or Ft. Meyers.
Lastly, we start hearing about how the pitcher’s arms are tiring, how the bat speed of the position players is catching up, will see the wind speeds increasing at every park in Florida, and then batting averages skyrocket making for more journalistic fantasy land reporting. Suggestions like "Bautista is hitting .900 this month with 15 homers in 30 at bats making it hard for Jim Tracy to make a final decision on who the starting eight position players should be" will become a daily ritual.
It happens every year.
This year I’m going to play it smart. I’m going to wait until about March 23rd to start following the team around like a puppy dog knowing that the beat writer’s will have mostly gone home, the pitchers will be all humble because they hurt like heck, and the position players will all feel like a million dollars because they are hitting everything thrown at them.
Besides, it will probably be the only time in my life that I get to see guys like Nate McLouth and Xavier Nady take Johan Santana to task. It should be fun.
By Jake, on February 14, 2007, at 9:59 pm |
Happy Valentine’s Day everyone! What could be more appropriate today than to take a hard look at the potential of Salomon Torres to close this year?
The Pittsburgh Pirates traded their star closer Mike Gonzalez to the Atlanta Braves this winter to get Adam LaRoche – the middle of the order power bat they desperately needed. The question now becomes, who closes for the Pirates?
Manager Jim Tracy has already hinted that Salomon Torres will be the closer. This article looks at why Tracy might have made that early decision and who else is on the roster that might be as good, or better, to fill the closer role.
Comparing a closer on one team, to a closer on another team, is like comparing apples to oranges because there are simply too many variables that can influence the final outcome of a game. Park factors, defensive skills of the players behind the closer, age and experience of the closer, umpires, and run support for the closer, are just a few of those variables.
Knowing the limitations of such a comparison, I compared Salomon Torres with the Angels Francisco Rodriguez, who I considered to be the best closer in 2006, Dan Kolb with the Brewers, and Mike Gonzalez, Matt Capps, John Grabow, and Damaso Marte with the Pirates.
I wanted to know two things – how did each pitcher fare under the following critical conditions:
– when entering a game in 2006 that was tied, or there was no more than one run difference either way; and
– when entering a game in 2006 that was tied, or there was no more than two runs difference either way.
It is my belief that when a pitcher with closer blood in his veins enters a meaningful game knowing his performance could be the pivotal factor, they will rise to the occasion whether they are closing or relieving. Simply put, true-blue closer types thrive on the thrill of shutting down the opposing team and their stats will reflect it.
Obviously coming out in the 9th inning with AC/DC blasting on the loudspeakers hypes a closer a lot more than a reliever who enters with two outs in the 8th. But hype doesn’t get results.. pitching gets results. Either you have the ability to shut down batters in critical opportunities, or you don’t. It’s that simple.
Let’s look at the comparison chart. You’ll notice that Torres is listed twice – once showing his full year stats and then I listed just his closing stats starting August 24th when Mike Gonzalez went on the DL. I also posted two years for Kolb – 2006 with the Brewers and 2005 with the Braves.
Notice Rodriguez’s stats in the most critical games when the score was tied or +1 to -1 runs (top table in chart).. he allowed just one run in 30 games while facing 145 batters. That’s just filthy. Mike Gonzalez was right behind him with just two runs allowed in 24 games facing 110 batters. That’s nearly as filthy.
Now look at Torres when closing.. one run allowed in 9 games having faced 50 batters. While that sample size is small, it certainly does trend toward being as filthy as Mike Gonzalez was. One red flag sticks out however.. it took Torres one additional batter per closing opportunity to shut the door than it took Gonzalez. That typically means the closer is either giving up more hits or walks and then getting strikeouts to end the inning, and that is exactly what happened with Torres last September.
Also look at the amount of run support Rodriguez received with the Angels – almost 1/2 run per game. Kolb also received about 1/2 run per game support in 2005 with the Braves in the +2 to -2 runs table. One-half a run per game is a lot of run support for any closer.
Now look at Torres when the Pirates were semi-raking in late August and September – he received less than one-quarter of a run per game in support. Mike Gonzalez, on the other hand, received virtually no run support and now you know why other teams were after him.. he was filthy without support. That’s a plus.
The upper table also clearly shows us why Matt Capps should not be handed the ball to close yet in his young career – he allowed 23 runs in 34 games in the most critical games he entered. But when a little bit of the pressure was taken off him (+2 to -2 runs in the lower table), he excelled, allowing just one run in the 21 games over his +1 to -1 run performances.
Marte and Grabow are pretty much the same animal, with Marte having the edge. Don’t forget that these two were used as specialists from the left side last year so their stats are going to be biased a bit more than the other pitchers. But like I said earlier, results are results and both of these pitchers did an overall better job in critical situations than Torres did last year. In fact, Marte was twice as good as Torres, subject to the bias limitation of being a specialist.
Kolb was limited by the Brewers on when he was handed the ball last year so his results are a bit biased from that as well. But still, he did do an acceptable job in critical games and that is probably why Dave Littlefield is giving him a shot.
Kolb’s success with the Braves in 2005 was fueled by the run support he received in the +2 to -2 games because he was allowing more than one-quarter of a run per game across the board which is two to three times higher than you want to see from your closer.
Jim Tracy is seemingly handing the ball to Torres because of what he accomplished in 23 games from August 24th on last year, but that is just as biased as some of the comparisons here are.
Consider this, half of Torres 12 saves last year were against two deflated teams in September – the Reds and Cubs. Further, in half the games he entered from August 24th on, the Pirates were up by at least two runs. While he did a good job nonetheless, that sample size isn’t enough to override the shockingly high .43 runs allowed per game average he had in critical +1 to -1 games.
Lastly, when you dig into Torres career numbers in +1 to -1 run games since 2003, you’ll find he entered the game 142 times and allowed a total of 93 runs for a .65 average run allowed per game rate. Most relievers get released with numbers like that.
You would also think Torres would fare better at PNC as a ground ball pitcher, but he didn’t. In those same 142 games, 69 were at home were he allowed 50 runs, for a .72 run per game average. That’s off the charts.
Think about that a minute.. 50 runs in 69 games. If he averaged 1 inning per start, that would be a 6.52 ERA and make Shawn Chacon seem like the next Matt Capps.
One thing Jim Tracy better be aware of if he uses Torres is not to bring him in when the Pirates are down by two or three runs in away games because he has historically given up the farm averaging .95 runs allowed per game. If we are ahead by two or three, Torres typically shuts the door better — .31 runs per game.
Nothing in Torres’ resume spells closer material. I can see why Jim Tracy wants to give him a shot based on the few games Torres did do well in, but I have to believe he will be on a very, very short leash.
The obvious choice to close games in Pittsburgh – from the above numbers – is Damaso Marte, then John Grabow.
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