Reds Series Preview

The Reds come to town the day it is announced by Rand McNally that Pittsburgh ranked as the most livable city in America.

This series starts with another Friday night contest at PNC Park with the Pirates as the huge favorite in Vegas. In fact, the Pirates are favorites to win all three games and that’s not the kind of odds I like to see.

Oh – the numbers are there to support them being favorites:

– Pirates have a 2.84 ERA first 7 games at PNC, and our starters have a 1.59 ERA last 3;

– the Pirates have won 7 of their last 9 against the Reds at PNC;

– the Pirates are 7-0 when they out-hit their opponent which figures to be the case most of the games in this series;

– the Reds are hitting just .201 against right-handers last five and their team batting average is a horrid .243 their last 10 games placing them dead last in the NL;

– Reds have committed 13 errors in their last 7 games;

– since 4/14 when Rich Hill shut the Reds out, they have gone 4-8, been held to 2 runs or less in half of those games, and held to 6 hits or less in 8 of those 12 games.

No matter how you slice it and dice it, the Reds come in looking like the NL version of the Kansas City Royals.

But that’s the problem.

The Pirates have won 4 straight and only won 5 straight 2 times in 2006. Despite a 2.96 ERA in their last 8 starts, Reds starters are 1-3 mainly because their bullpen has imploded with a 7.94 ERA their last 5 games.

Pittsburgh has a depleted bullpen with two of their seven relievers unavailable, Salomon Torres the closer having been ripped from two consecutive games, and three of the five arms in the pen that are available with ERAs over 6 their last 3 games.

But what bothers me most about game 1 of this series is that Ian Snell does not pitch his best at PNC (24G, 5.16 ERA), the National Weather Service suggests the wind will be blowing straight out at 10 – 15 mph with gusts certain to be much higher, the Reds are 4th in the NL hitting home runs, and the Pirates are only hitting .204 against southpaws averaging less than 1 home run per game.

The keys to this series for the Pirates are going to be:

1.  Our pitchers keeping the ball in the park;
2.  Keeping Gonzalez and Hamilton from beating us;
3.  Putting the ball in play and letting the Reds defenders make mistakes;
4.  Xavier Nady’s availability because he wails Reds pitching;
5.  Run, run, run if Valentin is behind the plate;
6.  Deflate the Reds even more by hammering Milton in game 1.

Hopefully the Reds leave Pittsburgh thinking it’s a place they don’t want to come back to anytime soon.

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Jason Bay is one home run away from becoming the 20th Pirate to hit 100 homers for the Bucs. It’s a safe bet he’ll get it tonight against Milton if he isn’t walked all night long.

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Look for LaRoche to have the night off against Milton, or be dropped way down the order.

Related posts:

1. Reds "B" roster puts out Snell's fire
2. Bucs open homestand flat; Are shutout by Arroyo, Reds
3. Bucs sweep Ms. Arroyo, Reds, out of town