Last night while watching the Pirates/Cubs game my retired scout friend made an observation that shocked me. He said he felt the Pirates were, perhaps, the most balanced team in the NLCD right now.
I just laughed thinking about our putrid offense and our less than shining defensive play over the first month.
As we know, the Pirates have been very lucky in April.. a flair that falls in for us at just the right time, a homer that just clears a 16′ wall, a hit and run executed perfectly that scores the tying run, a bomb off Torres that hangs up and stays in the park.. you know what I mean. But, he said, luck is often a product of design.
I didn’t think much more about it until this morning when I started digging into the stats for tonight’s game.
He might be right.
Consider these random stats:
– Bucs are -7 runs defensively in a division averaging +2. Only the Astros are closer to the mean at -2 runs.
– Bucs team FIP (fielding independent pitching) is 3.87 with the NLCD mean at 3.84. Nobody is closer to the mean than the Bucs. Plus, we have only allowed 5+ runs in four games – well below the mean.
– Bucs offense is averaging 3.58 runs per game in a division that has a 4.14 mean. While this isn’t even close, there are some curious signs showing it should be, or will get, better. For instance:
– Pirates .283 BABiP (batting average on balls in play) is just .006 off the mean and second closest to it.
– We are making an out in 72% of all plate appearances which is off the charts and highly unlikely to continue. The league average over the years is about 69% and the Pirates have never been more than mid-70′s.
– Pirates have a .209 BA/RiSP (batting average with runners in scoring position) which is second worst in MLB. This has been a product of bad luck as the .283 BABiP indicates and it’s just a matter of time before this will even out.
– Xavier Nady isn’t in the lineup and Freddy Sanchez hasn’t been 100% in weeks. Throw in LaRoche and Paulino’s slow starts and you know things will eventually turn around. And, even if our offense only gets .25 runs per game better with everyone clicking, that would put us second closest to the NLCD mean.
So as you can see, two of the three basic events – pitching, fielding, and hitting – are very balanced right now, even with the offense lagging.
When the offense starts to click, another part of the game will typically tank some – most likely the defense, as has been the case over the last 13 months. But there is room for a deviation from the NLCD mean in those two events to remain mostly balanced. And that could very well be the key to 2007..
Maintaining that balance.
Related posts:
This is easily one of the best teams that the Bucs have fielded in years. Can’t wait until we a chance to see more of that gorgeous ballpark and the sharp unis over there.
http://thedrunkentacoman.mlblogs.com