Could the only piece we end up dealing before March be Matt Morris? It’s starting to look that way. There are still a few teams who are looking for a veteran arm and a couple more who should be upgrading their #5 if they want to stop pretending.

Little known fact.. of the 50 wins Morris has against NL teams the last 5 years, 3 of his most dominating 7 games during that time, using Game Score as the standard, came in the last two years. In fact, 33% of his most dominating 15 games last 5 came in the last two years (39 IP, 20 H, 5 ER, 24 K, 8 BB, 1.15 ERA), with two of those in 2007 despite the hell he went through.

So the old dog still has some life in his arm, to be sure.

–

There’s a report circulating that Freddy signed a  two year deal Wednesday. I don’t know the terms. I emailed the Pirates but I haven’t received word back confirming or denying it. As I said the other day, I expect to see a 2/12 or 2/14 deal, but thought they would go three years.

(Update 1PM EST..  rumor is the deal is 2/11 with an $8M 3rd year option that becomes hard if Sanchez gets more than 600 AB’s in either year while being selected to the AS Game. I guess we nailed it because that’s essentially a 3/19.3 deal and I had thought 3/20.)

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“I don’t look at my experience as just the years I had in Cleveland,” Stark said. “I look at it as just continuing to learn… I understand it’s a challenge, but, as I was telling friends of mine, the great part is getting the opportunity to come in here and build something. It’s exciting.” PG, 1/30/08

I’m giving Stark hell, of course. He has a massive job to do and we’ll have to wait to evaluate his rebuilding effort. 

There were some tidbits in Dejan’s article Wednesday that I had assumed would happen once the new crew took over..

1. An expanded role for the American Sports Medicine Institute (ASMI) lab.

YEAH! You can see my interview with Dr. Fleisig from the lab late last year.

Dejan mentioned in his article that the lab just started doing biomechanical analysis last year, but that’s incorrect. I’ve been screaming for this since late 2004.  In fact, Ryan Vogelsong wanted to go to the lab – paying with his own money, and on his own time during the AS break in 2005 – and the club told him no, I was told. All he wanted was to be a better pitcher. The sad part about it all is that he was one of many arms who has had to go outside the org to find help over the years.

Now don’t start getting all giddy about the lab with the players we have on this roster and in our farm. They can only do so much. I mean, the talent has to be there first, then a few helpful suggestions from the lab might reduce shoulder tension or elbow stress resulting in fewer injuries. That’s the primary goal of the lab – reduce injuries. Consistency in mechanics is a potential offshoot of their work, but the program isn’t designed for that.

Also, I’m guessing the main reason the lab is getting involved is to have another babysitter for Huntington and Stark. The lab can review film on players and report back in 24 hours to the team, if the Pirates are going that far with them.

Dejan needed/needs to research that one step further because that lab can be hired to work with the team all year, or they can just do evaluations of our pitchers and some players. It would be nice to have them on board as consultants as the front office sets up the draft board each year.

This is a positive step with long-term rewards potentially resulting in wins down the road. Hopefully it starts with reduced hard pitch counts from the GCL up through AAA.

2. The “revitalized and never-ending Player Plan” BS in the article means nothing except Stark will face more accountability. That’s ok, but his buddy is the GM. End of story.

3. The “better technology” bread crumb Dejan reported won’t provide us with wins anymore than better player plans will. Who cares if they have one centralized database or 20 decentralized systems? Big deal.

4. The “greater supervision” part in his article leaves me questioning more than Dejan answered. True, we added some rovers. But are they working full-time, or part-time as I heard some are? The concept is great, but who is supervising the supervisors? THAT was our problem under Littlefield and THAT looks to be unchanged.

5. But, who is leading whom?

“John Russell has a style of baseball he wants to see played, and that’s going to be driven by cohesiveness all through our system,” Stark said. “There will be no separation.”

Now that’s scary. I sure would feel better if Stark came out and said Huntington’s style of play will be the one dictated in the entire system and that Russell, Stark, and Huntington all forged the playbook together.

Stark’s comment above almost looks like the old Dave Littlefield – let’s blame everyone else – scenario being set up all over again.

As I said, Dejan’s work is leaving more questions to be asked, but this third one was his best work so far. I don’t usually find much he writes worth a can of corn, but that one was. Good job DK.

–

Pirates after Bako? Yeah.. this one makes sense and probably a guy they can actually sign. Since it will be a split major league/minor league deal, it’s probably better too. All we need is someone to receive the ball if Paulino goes down for an extended period of time.

BTW, did you read Estrada’s comment:

“This past week, I had a couple of teams that were bidding against each other, and they both wanted me to come,” Estrada told reporters in Washington. “I came close to signing with Pittsburgh, but I really didn’t want to sign there.”

Can you blame the guy? But, why say it? Not good manners Johnny. I hope you don’t come to the dish anytime soon against us.

The shot that was heard around the world today – that Adam Jones allegedly has a degenerative hip – wasn’t called in to a radio show by accident, I’m guessing. That’s the kind of info that has to be leaked to someone, somehere down the line.

If it’s even true.

Pure guess here – about the only place this would show up that the Mariner’s had no control over is in the Major League Scouting Bureau’s file on him. Now before you go crazy, I’m not suggesting that’s where it is, where it was leaked from, or even if Jones has it. It’s really none of my business. I’m just suggesting that’s the only logical conclusion I can come up with other than a hired gun (investigator) finding it. That’s assuming, of course, it wasn’t right smack dab on his team medical file.

This is the sort of thing fans have no control over.. we don’t have medicals in front of us to review before we blab “I want ‘X’ player” for ‘Y’ player. And that’s why there are scouts and investigators in this game. It’s big biz now.

I’m not qualified to even guess how it might affect him in the future, if he even has it. I’ll leave that to the docs.

–

Santana goes to the Mets, as we assumed would happen here. That’s one hell of a coup by Minaya. Maybe the Mariners will go after Oliver Perez now? LoL

Don’t laugh.. the ALWD has a lot of lefty hitters.

–

We’ve read a lot about how the Pirates don’t want to deal Bay low so I thought I would take a hard look at this from a statistical point of view.

I had Bay as a +2.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) player last year and, after regressing his last three years, found he has a projected +4.6 WAR value going into 2008.

That’s what the other clubs are sitting back and playing the guessing game on – will Bay remain a +2.0 WAR player in 2008 and 2009, will he regain his +7/+8 or more WAR ways he had in 2005 and 2006, or will he fall somewhere in the middle? And, if he was to go to the AL, how would the change of teams and league effect him mentally and statistically?

It’s all a guessing game.

The chart below assumes Bay produces a straight line +4.5 WAR in 2008 and 2009, and assumes a trade July 31, 2008.

As you can see, the Pirates will have ‘used up’ nearly one-third of Bay’s available WAR under contract and will have paid him 28% of what he is due. The receiving club would obtain somewhere around +1.6 WAR for the two plus months left in 2008 and that would be worth $5.6M to then if you assume +1 WAR is worth $3.5M.

But note this.. the receiving club will get a total of somewhere around +6 WAR over the period for $9.6M. That’s $1.6M per WAR obtained, which is very cheap, all things considered.  

If the receiving club took the plunge right now guessing Bay was going to meet +4.5 WAR for both years, they would pay $13.25M for +9 WAR – or $1.47M per WAR. In other words, there is very little difference between getting him this winter and waiting until July if the receiving club doesn’t want to risk jumping right now AND they don’t need the WAR asap.

And that’s why they seem to be waiting - it’s pretty easy to replace a left fielder in either league.

But here’s the point I’m trying to make – the Pirates will have used up 30% of his WAR value (assuming he achieves a straight line +4.5 WAR both years) and used up 32% of his WAR by July.

So the team wanting Bay has to need him for a run in late 2008 or there would be no reason to get him until after the 2008 season has ended, value wise. But at that point, 50% of Bay’s WAR will be used up, 48% of his WAR value will be gone, and the price per WAR will shoot up 5% to $1.7M. Who would want that?

Logically, if Bay was going to be dealt, a team would go after him now because that saves the receiving team more than $27M in the market (assuming $4.5M per WAR for a free agent and two years of 4.5 WAR production, minus Bay’s payroll).

Huntington is trying to deal Bay like he’s a +7 or better WAR player who had an abberration in 2007. But the clubs don’t see him as that +4.5 WAR guy right now (regressed value after his +2.0 WAR last season). They probably see a +3 or less WAR guy.

Now comes the crapshoot.

If you deal Bay now the receiving club saves the most money, they get the most WAR, and they also get a supplemental draft pick in 2010 if they don’t resign him and he continues to mash. But to deal him now you have to deal him at a +4.5 WAR return, as explained above.

Or, do you hope and pray Bay gets his production back up to a +7 plus WAR type level but eat nearly 33% of his WAR and 30% of his WAR dollar value savings while waiting?

Which gives you the most potential return?

No brainer – dealing him now.. not in July, even if he picks up his value to +7 or more.

So what we are really hearing is that Huntington can’t get a deal that’s worth a can of corn for Bay. Just like none of the other teams can get value for their players either. It’s only going to get worse as the prospects in other systems get better.

Bottom line? We need to be dealing our roster. Holding onto Bay, Sanchez, and the rest is only going to get us much less in return, the more time goes by. The only players that aren’t affected by that are Gorzy and, perhaps, Snell.

Deal ‘em now – perhaps taking a tick more risk by grabbing a tad lower level players for more impact, take our losses, and move on with a better stocked farm around McCutchen and start working on development.

I heard today the Mariners won’t be interested in Ian Snell even if they don’t get Bedard. They also have no desire to reopen talks on Jason Bay. I will say that my feelers I put out all confirmed that sources close to the Orioles believe the Bedard trade is a done deal. Will Angelos back up? Who knows. But those in the bowels of that org believe the deal is done.

End of story.

So what might happen now with us?

We’ll probably see Snell’s name rumored to be going everywhere after the Mets land Santana and the Orioles land Bedard. There are quite a few teams still looking for a quality starter (git away Mets).

But one front office guru told me today that “The names are new [in Pittsburgh], the story is the same.” He was talking about perceived player value – that the Pirates continue to demand more than some in the market think is rational, all things considered.

We’re about two weeks from spring training opening so it isn’t likely the Pirates are going to deal anyone now unless they get absolutely blown off the map, and that’s not likely to happen.

–

Odds to win the NLCD in 2008:

Chicago Cubs ……………….. 10/11  
Milwaukee Brewers ……………. 9/5  
St Louis Cardinals ……………   5/1  
Cincinnati Reds ………………   7/1  
Houston Astros ……………… 10/1  
Pittsburgh Pirates …………… 40/1  

Vegas sees a potential five-team race.

And then the Pirates.

–

I slotted Gorzy to be the opening day-away starter and Snell as the home opening day starter. You can flip them at will if you believe Gorzy will be the home opener this year, which is very probable. The rest of the slots are just an educated guess.

In any case, we run up a few good opportunities in the mix and then we see some pretty stiff competition for quite awhile. We could easily be 5-13 after 18, especially with the cold-to-hot-to-cold-to-hot-to-cold weather schedule we have.

And no, the NLCD is not wide open. That’s a fantasy dream. 

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Speaking of fantasy, one fantasy writer’s top 50 arms in baseball doesn’t include a Pirate. Email him in the article and let him know what you think.

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Here’s a nice read from Guy Cipriano who follows State College and been writing about the Bucs farm system for years.

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How about one of you well-to-do readers popping for a sponsorship for us in the Pirates Golf Classic in February?

Read more about it here.

Surprise me.

DAMN.

Well just damn.

I can’t get a handle on anything except we were close and then everything became so quiet you could hear a pin drop. It still is, but I put feelers out just the same.

I could post a 1,000 word “I’m pissed off” column right now but I won’t bore you with it. Let’s wait it out.

–

I’ve started researching bat speed and quickness to the ball in my scouting gig and I’ve been amazed at the differences I’m finding between players.

If you put a stopwatch on a batter at the point they touch their toe to the point of contact (generally called unloading), you come up with some really strange differences. I’ve noticed times from .12 to .30 seconds. The average MLB player is around .18.

Then MLB bat speed ranges from a little over 100 mph to the 50′s with somewhere around 80 as the median.

I emailed one of the Pirates top dogs on hitting and asked them about these times and they basically said they don’t deal with it. That’s not uncommon I’m finding out.. it seems to be more a scouting thing than a front office or coaching concern at the MLB level.

But when you consider that, for every 5 mph in bat speed gained makes an MLB average 90 mph fastball fly 30′ feet further, you have to wonder why clubs aren’t studying this more. In other words, they simply think in terms of bat weight and hitting the sweet spot as consistently as possible – swing mechanics are a part of it, but times isn’t so much a concern.

Makes sense. A hitter has a certain approach and mechanics and, while mechanics can be tweaked, his approach is hard to change. Look at Paulino stepping in the bucket everyday because he’s obviously become scared of the ball and pulls out.

As I get a bit deeper into all this I’ll update you showing some examples.

–

Charlie Daniels will be touring again this year but he won’t be playing in Pittsburgh. Instead, you’ll have to travel to Seven Springs where Nutting booked him.

–

I’m going to bed hoping the nightmare ends with better news tomorrow.

All I’m gonna say at this moment.

–

I mentioned here a week or so ago that some players were hot under the collar with the “underachieved” slogan coming out of Federal Street. In support of them, I penned a simple piece showing the team overachieved.

What do you know.. that piece ended up in the Pirates front office during a meeting and they decided to change their rhetoric line to “underperformed.” Now everywhere you turn that’s all you hear.

Dan Giger over at the Post-Gazette put together a simple video from the club’s Q&A at Piratefest Friday that hammered that line over-and-over-and-over. (Pull the trigger Neal.) It was said so many times by so many people, I decided to put them to the test.

I contacted Joe Navarro, who is internationally recognized expert in the interpretation of nonverbal behavior (he was the FBI’s expert on nonverbal behavior for 25-years and is the author of the fabulous ‘Read ‘Em and Weep’ poker tells book) and asked him to review the clip. If you remember, Mr. Navarro was kind enough to review another clip back in September on Robert Nutting.

Anyway, Mr. Navarro sent me back these simple observations:

“From their nonverbals it appears that this was staged or at least in part rehearsed. They seem to be repeating the same message over and over and they seem to all buy into the same message (no one grimaced and no one leaned away).

“The message though appears to be a palliative for the audience rather than a challenge for the players. Unfortunately, corporate messages now adays tend to sound scripted as this one did. I long for the days of Yogi Berra who spoke plainly and genuinely.

“Jake, makes you wonder if there isn’t some groupthink going on in that outfit when everyone apes the same message. Presentations like that are performances and so they lack the purity of a private conversation or even interview.“

Give them an Oscar.

End of story.

–

A lot of readers have emailed asking why Huntington would tell the fan base the team is not going to contend. A lot more asked why Bay said the team had no chance.

You realize these statements all came out about the same time, don’t you?

Now, couple that knowledge with the acting jobs above during Piratefest’s Q&A session and what do you get? A lot of BS being spread around by everyone.

The question is, who is the director? Ogden or Robert Nutting? McClatchy? Coonelly? Brian Chiera? It certainly isn’t Huntington.. he’s obviously just aboard for the ride, the way he talks.

Obviously they have some internal problems trying to figure things out because they start in one direction, then backup and go another. Then a week or two later start a new path, abandon it then go some other way.

(Pull the frikin’ trigger Neal.)

One thing I am impressed with as a fan – at least they are trying to be honest about the team’s ability to compete this year. That’s, perhaps, the first time I’ve heard a sports franchise come out and say: we suck, but we can compete, that is if the players overperform while we rebuild, yet remember, we won’t contend nonetheless.

We’re probably not getting deals done because nobody is taking their meds up there.

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“Trenni Kusnierek has joined the FSN broadcast team for Brewers games in 2008.” – JSOnline

Damn Lanny and his smelly socks.

–

“Justin Morneau and outfielder Michael Cuddyer are the recipients of $104 million from Minnesota Twins owner Carl Pohlad’s bank account.”

$21.3M per year over three, then $13.3 for three more… for two players.

Hell, no wonder the Pirates front office isn’t using the Twins as a model anymore.

–

Here’s a great read from KDKA on Andrew Olson, one of four of the Pirates bat boys.

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PULL THE DAMN TRIGGER NEAL.
PULL THE DAMN TRIGGER NEAL.
PULL THE DAMN TRIGGER NEAL.
PULL THE DAMN TRIGGER NEAL.
PULL THE DAMN TRIGGER NEAL.
PULL THE DAMN TRIGGER NEAL.
PULL THE DAMN TRIGGER NEAL.

And readers, don’t ask because I can’t say a thing without getting some folks very upset.

“It comes back to most of our guys are younger and, statistically, it is rational to expect them to be better. They should be getting better. We have a number of players — and they’d be the first to admit this — who underperformed.” — Neal Huntington, January 25, 2008

I argued here a few days ago that the roster didn’t “underperform” except for players who were walking wounded last year – Duffy, Bay, Maholm, Duke, and Grabow. Nearly everyone else had a career year as defined by OPS+ or ERA+.

Then some of the readers turned on me saying Huntington said they “underachieved” and that didn’t mean they “underperformed.” I argued otherwise, they didn’t listen to reason, and now Huntington has filled in the blanks for them.

Earlier in the month I showed that, if every player on the roster produced 10% above their career best, the club will still lose 87 games next year and MIGHT possibly reach the 724 runs scored they “overachieved” on last year.

That hasn’t changed.

This is a 90 loss team. End of story.

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“I think that, for a championship-quality team, you need to make more moves. And I’m not talking about the .500 team we can be. I don’t think anyone in this room is going to tell you we’re a championship-quality team. There still needs to be more moves. And you know what? I’m not trying to tell people anything they don’t already know.” — Jason Bay, January 25, 2008

Obviously the man is disappointed. I suppose you can sit and wonder what he is disappointed about because he knew the club couldn’t possibly acquire enough talent to dent the contending teams this year. So, is it because he’s still a Pirate? Or, is it because he’s fed up with ownership?

Flip-a-coin. Heck, flip three or four coins.. add your own theories.. who knows. Who cares?

Instead of talking about the lack of moves, it would have been nice if Dejan asked him point blank how his dang knees are, how his shoulder is, or if he’s been working out for the team or their physicians to evaluate him. I mean, geezz.. the guy was pretty rank last year.

Give the guy a Brian Giles button.. or a Kris Benson button.. or a Jason Kendall button. They all spoke up against the org and were moved.

C-ya J-Bay.

–

Freddy Sanchez has been offered a multi-year deal, so says pirateball.com.

My book has Freddy as a tick below average defender at second (where I assume he’ll be rated at for his extension), an average to above average hitter, and will be 30 this year so add a small tick of regression. That makes him about a 1.5 to 2.0 wins above replacement player for the Bucs.

Now the question is, how long will they try to wrap him up?

Let’s assume both arb years. If I take the median road that puts Sanchez at $12M (2/12) and the high road about 2/14. But the Bucs have absolutely no incentive to do a two-year deal because they can’t lose anything forcing Sanchez to an arb hearing each year and then taking a comp draft pick in 2010 when he leaves.

Also, the Pirates would be nuts to offer him a two-year because if they try to deal him – as they should be trying to do – they will lose trade value every day he remains a Pirate because it’s improbable to expect him to do any better than he has last two.

The Pirates probably want four years at a hometown price. In that case, Sanchez would almost certainly reject a four-year deal because he’ll be on a declining cycle entering 2012 at age 34. He doesn’t want that. On the flip-side of the coin, the Pirates would be signing him at near high value right now so they are going to pay through the nose if they get 4 years.

So look for the two sides to either settle on a three-year or a deal doesn’t get done because the Pirates couldn’t get a large enough discount.

Three years at $18M – $20M would be my guess.

And then dealt.

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“According to a report Friday in the Rocky Mountain News, the Mets are “close” to a deal for free-agent starter Livan Hernandez, who could provide a boost for their rotation.”

Let the starting pitcher posturing begin!

–

I heard the rumblings about no tickets for spring training games and made a few inquiries. It seems a few ticket companies were very aggressive this year and that has left many of the games sold out.

Tickets to the first mosquito bowl game, March 19th under the lights against the Yankees, are already pouring online at up to $200 per ticket, which is insane. You couldn’t pay me $200 to sit under the lights in Bradenton and get bit up by Off resistant insects, some the size of a golf ball. But there is one good thing to note.. it’s been pretty dry this year so you may not see a lot of blood feeders in March.

But, oh my gosh.. can you even imagine the flying Palmetto bugs the size of a half-dollar freaking out from all the new light invading their space and creaming the fans in the stands? Or the bats? Or the fruit rats climbing on the wires and trees? Someone needs to be filming the stands for America’s Funniest Home Videos.

Wow. 

As a native Floridian I can tell you, whoever dreamed about playing under the lights in Bradenton needs their head examined. 

PS.. don’t forget to bring a gas mask. Most of the towns fog at dusk with chemicals that make your eyes water.

For days.

“The Pittsburgh Pirates signed pitchers Jaret Wright, Casey Fossum and Hector Carrasco to minor league deals with an invitation to spring training Thursday.”

Some have asked who I thought had the best chance of making the roster out of all the players we’ve signed so far. Since I believe we are done adding arms to the equation now, let’s take a quick look and see.

If you would like, you can download an Excel spreadsheet I put together with all the basic stats covering their last two to three years of work. If you don’t have Excel, you can view this page: pen additions.

Honestly, we haven’t signed much upside. Carrasco, Dumatrait, Bernero, and Beam could be the sleeper group but I say that gently. Does Bernero have an arm to pitch with anymore? Can Dumatrait make the jump? And Bowden mistake Carrasco just might fool everyone putting up Capps like numbers now that he needs a paycheck.

Who knows?

It’s impossible to project any of these guys because many of them have/had unhealthy arms, some are so far over the hill it isn’t funny, and others are just plain fodder material or too young to guess at since I haven’t seen them.

Taubenheim doesn’t have a plus pitch to put anyone away and his makeup in the two games I watched film on has to be questioned because he throws the ball – he doesn’t pitch, making me question why he’s even around. Here’s some video (Windows Media – 38 MB) in the game he beat Bullington in last year.

Dessens is intriguing if you like to root for the underdog, Wright could have the best arm of the group if it’s healthy, Fossum hasn’t been the same since the Rays abused him in 2005, and Barthmaier probably has the liveliest arm of the group (maybe Bernero or Beam are there too) but is a straight two-pitch guy with little command and probably a couple years away from trusting his stuff.

So go over the spreadsheet, see what you think, and post your own gut feelings over at the discussion forum.

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I get one email a week wondering why the Pirates don’t move Xavier Nady to third base, and I personally shutter just thinking about the move.

It took me awhile to find this but in the Bill James Primer he wrote back in the 90′s which is pretty much still gospel in most club’s circles, James said:

“The defensive spectrum looks like this:

     – 1B – LF – RF – 3B – CF – 2B – SS – C -

“with the basic premise being that positions at the right end of the spectrum are more difficult than the positions at the left end of the spectrum.  Players can generally move from right to left along the spectrum successfully during their careers.”

Obviously this isn’t set in stone, but it does incorporate a good understanding of the basic concepts and requirements for each position. True, 3B and RF and next to each other and that might make some think it’s even more possible.

But Nady’s going to be 29 next year, he’s played a total of three games there in his pro career that I could find, and from just watching him field in right it’s pretty obvious he doesn’t have the hands for the position. But that’s my own feeling.

I think X has a lot to prove this year, especially defensively. He’s close to becoming a platoon/utility guy for the Pirates. But again, that’s my own thoughts.

–

UPDATE @12PM.. I posted the wrong dataset in my initial post. The chart below shows the correct distribution of fielded balls in play at PNC by the Pirates.

This has little value on its own because of all the junk we put on the mound last year, but it does tell you the fielding distribution on balls in play last year.

Notice that the centerfielder handled nearly 20%. Read that again.. the centerfielder handled one-in-five balls in play last year. Now remember that when you start considering who you want to play the position while Duffy is rehabbing - Morgan or McLouth – and their limitations as noted yesterday.

Also notice the Pirates didn’t reduce the number of fielded balls in the outfield (still over 50%) and that is what is causing us an additional 25 – 30 runs allowed per year.

Until I finish BiP distribution models from away games I can’t tell if the outfielded fielded 50% or more over the entire year, but I suspect they did. However, notice that only 48.7% were fielded in the outfield at PNC and that is one reason why the defense held opponents to less than 5 runs per game even with the junk we put on the mound.

You can read about 2006 ball in play stats, as well as gander at some BiP distribution models on some of our pitchers, in this series I did last year. More on this in February.

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Piratefest is in swing.. get out and go enjoy it! Share your photos with displaced fans by emailing them to us to post.