“Newspapers mentioned Gorzelanny may have been removed from his start Thursday because it was cold. Isn’t he from Chicago?” — JW, Pittsburgh

LoL – yes he is. A native at that. I reviewed my cards on Gorzy and saw that he opened 2006 for Indy with a 48 degree temp and a 15 mph wind blowing to boot.

The 76 degrees - Thursday’s game time temperature – wasn’t the reason for shutting him down and I don’t know why it was even brought up – numerous times in various articles – by one beat reporter.

He was shut down as a precautionary move. End of story. I still expect – want to see, is probably the better way to say it – Gorzy shelved for awhile. Let’s slow down and take our time with him.

“Two shoulder discomfort shut downs in seven months under two general managers for Tom Gorzelanny. Will the Pirates ever learn?” — SH, Tampa, FL

It’s scary stuff. Nobody is God and can predict the future for Gorzy, but as long as he remains open in his communication with the Pirates trainers, he should be ok unless something snaps.

“Baseball America just posted a note about Pedro Alvarez indicating his injury may be rougher than originally thought. If the Rays take Matusz, who do you see the Pirates taking?” KT, Wheeling, WV

I mentioned that high school arm Gerrit Cole and starter Aaron Crow from Missouri are interesting, although Florida’s Buster Posey is starting to catch my eye some but isn’t as talented as several players ahead of him – high school and college.

“You mentioned John Russell doesn’t like “flashiness” which gave the edge to McLouth to start in center. Can you elaborate?” — YR, Iraq

Russell is well known to appreciate talent, not showboats. That’s probably about as far as I should go with that. Does it mean Morgan has no prayer? Not at all. He just needs to outperform McLouth this spring and show Russell he’s a total player. But don’t count on it, at least based on Russell’s historical track record.

“Use your scouting senses – Doumit or Nady in right batting third?” — PW, Penn Hills, PA

Tough call. A healthy Ryan Doumit probably puts up a .275/.330/.475 split over 350 at bats. He’s matched Nady for potential power breakout in my book and you have to like his compact swing. But I don’t like the lack of contact at times and the high ground ball rate (although better in 2007), but I do like his ability to get on base a bit better than Nady.

In right, Nady covers better and, even though the position gets fewer opps than league average with all our soft tossing southpaws and Morris, you can’t let teams score at will on poor routes.

For me, I’d put my money on Nady because of the semi-reduced downtime, the fact I don’t want LaRoche batting 5th or two lefties back-to-back unless I can help it, and Nady’s “clutchiness”. 

Now if Doumit could just get his game management skills and ability to handle a staff under control, he’d be worth 3 times what he’s worth today even if playing only 120 games. Perhaps that’s Russell’s and Huntington’s intention – to push him to see if he can?

“2001 all over?” — TC, Sewickley, PA

I assume you mean in wins and losses. Boy.. tough to say. New regime, new policies, new demands, new everything. Who knows how the players take to it all. Nobody knows better than the players where they fit in the game.

Do they give up on Russell like they did Tracy and Mac? And if they start to, what does Russell do.. bring up replacement level players and lose a ton? If they don’t give up, play hard, and lose a ton, does Huntington then pull the plug as we expect him to? If so, when?

Sure, we could be looking at a 100 loss season but one that should propel us forward a lot more than 2001 did.

– Tidbits –

Pirates beat reporter Jenifer Langosch mentioned today she didn’t know who it was that reported Snell having arm problems. I guess her site search is broke because it was MLB.com that originally reported Snell missed his start with forearm numbness September 27, 2006. It ended up being tightness in his right elbow instead, the AP later reported.

Of course, that was just a month after MLB.com reported Snell mildly strained his right shoulder.

Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus ”barely” green flagged his health (subscription required) but Carroll has mentioned in the past that Snell uses a lot of effort to deliver every pitch which also led to some concern.

–

Bucs lost to the Phillies as Jack Wilson homered in his first at bat of the spring and went 3-3 with two of the balls in play in the air. Deja vu of August and September last year? Hmm.. perhaps it’s a mental thing in that he’s still feeling like possible trade bait? Good for him – bat him second Neal.

Mientkiewicz went 1st to 3rd again.. nice hustle. Even getting caught stealing was impressive. Hey, the cat’s trying to lead. Good for him.. I just hope he gets smarter on the base paths and starts thinking about putting wood on the ball. Maybe the wrist just isn’t there yet?

Shane Youman with four walks. Wow. Anybody else think his massive inning count had anything at all to do with that? Geezz.. poor kid.

We saw the inherited problem with flame throwers today in Carrasco – they get yanked out of the park more often which is something we absolutely can’t afford to allow.

I wish I saw the game to know if the two wild pitches were really wild or if it was more Ryan Doumit being all thumbs and not blocking the ball as has been the case in the past.

Two walks for Bautista. Man, set this guy up in the 8 hole with Morgan or McLouth in front of him and he’ll walk a ton all year setting the plate for Sanchez leading off.

Bay.. just two at bats and off he went stage right. Not a good sign.. not a good sign.

Hey Andrew McCutchen, did you work out in Georgia this winter or come in cold?

–

“Deep down inside, I wanted to be picked up,” Burnett said, “because [I thought] it would be a better opportunity maybe for me.” — Sean Burnett on being placed on the wire after getting DFA’d this winter.

Yeah, we secretly hoped the Cubs or Brewers added you to their rotation too Sean. 

Thursday’s game was one of those “excuse me” spring training wins. You know the kind.. balls falling in all around the diamond, weird throws, one of the slowest men in baseball scoring from second on a ground ball up the middle, infielders letting balls play them, home runs getting into the jet stream and being carried 75 feet more than they should..

.. and some poor baseball productivity.

The first 13 Pirate batters over three innings to face MLB pitching (Kyle Kendrick) did very little, other than a wind-aided home run by Adam LaRoche. For instance, Gomez singled in the second and then Bixler wiped him on a double play, and in both the first and third the only guys to reach came after two outs and both were left standing by the next batter.

In contrast, Phil Dumatrait started his first game since being bombed last year (6 starts, 15.00 ERA) and, as often the case with last minute starters, did a good job. In the seven batters he faced he struck out two, including Ryan Howard, walked Rollins, gave up a ground ball single up the middle, and induced three other ground ball outs.

Not too shabby for an emergency start against the Phillies big bats. Now don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Dumatrait will sustain those kinds of numbers (.167 BABiP) unless he’s used sparingly with good matchups by Russell until he gets a lot more innings under his belt. But he has good enough stuff that he might fit well as a late setup guy over time.

Unfortunately, Bryan Bullington gave up the farm.. 5 runs on five hits including a dazzling play in the outfield by Morgan (I see it, no I don’t.. yes I do, not I don’t. Plunk.. oh, there it is). The high sun was the excuse but.. hey.. be serious. Gomez lost a foul pop up in the sun too that opened up the inning but there’s no excuse for that… issue better flip-downs or teach how to shade with the glove better.

Interestingly after the game Russell said Bullington left some pitches up but, hey – that’s Bullington’s game. I mentioned a lot last year he was flirting with disaster pitching high in the zone in the games I saw in Indy. That seemed to be his comfort zone.

He found little comfort Thursday.

The Phillies put 2007 first rounder Joe Savery on the mound and he was eaten up immediately on mistake pitches by Doumit and LaRoche then Paulino showed why his 2006 contact rate was probably a fluke when he failed to put the bat on the ball to move the runners by striking out.

Gomez then walked to load the bases and another one of the huge developmental blunders came to light I hated seeing in Littlefield days – Bixler scorched a liner to short instead of simply lofting the ball in the air for a sac fly scoring a run. I’ll give it to Bixler – he tagged it. But it wasn’t the right move fundamentally.

Now with two outs, Josh Wilson singled up the middle bringing home Doumit and – can you believe – LaRoche from second, and then McLouth capped Savery’s day by slamming a slider over the right field wall scoring three more. Morgan? He struck out, like Paulino.

It was nice to see Nady batting third. It’s where I believe he needs to be. He ended up 0-2 but reached by being hit, so on base 1/3′rd the PA.

It was also nice to see the cumulative contributions from some of the players Huntington brought in.. Wilson and Gomez went 3-4 with 2 walks, 3 rbis, and 3 runs scored. Those were the guys getting it done keeping innings going, moving runners, and timely hits. And let’s be serious.. neither is really fighting for a job unless you really believe Huntington would use Mientkiewicz as a spare glove man. I don’t.

But we saw the same song starting this year from the regular roster players other than LaRoche that we saw the last two - living or dying by the long ball.. 3-15 (.200 BA) with one home run and, nicely, two ground ball singles up the middle. Swinging for the fences has to change. We need more contact and, as a fan, I hope to see Russell stress it.

Oh, and another song too - Pirate pitchers walking the first batter of the inning.

But it’s still early. 

–

I really wish Adam LaRoche hadn’t homered in his first at bat. I wish he would have ground out. Why? Because now everyone’s talking about him again and that’s what set him into a tailspin last year by putting too much pressure on himself. We’ll have to see where this goes too.

–

Interestingly, two games and still no sign of Jack Wilson, Jason Bay, or Freddy Sanchez. Both games had the DL in effect so it’s not like they couldn’t have got an at bat or two.

–

The Pirates said they plan to give Gorzelanny an inning Sunday. The good news on that is that the game is in Bradenton, not St. Petersburg. Remember Oliver Perez who went to St. Pete March 25, 2005, overthrowing in 90 degree heat that toasted his arm?

The potential worrisome news is that I heard today Gorzelanny had been complaining of soreness for several days before he was actually shut down. One day being sore is one thing.. even a second day. But three?

Ouch.

Now I understand the soreness isn’t usually a bother on its own.. and I understand they did take the innings off his plate.

But a couple of days of complaining, knowing his workload the last two, before shutting him down sends a huge red flag up my spine, especially since they didn’t feel comfortable having him throw a bullpen instead of his start. 

If it’s me, I shut him down immediately and then send him back to start his spring all over. Remember now, he pitched 26 innings last spring as well.

I don’t believe there is any value in Gorzy taking the mound Sunday against the Rays, even if only throwing at 75% – it can only hurt the young man. He’s taking the mound with a huge question mark in his mind already and that tends to screw up mechanics. And, getting bombed isn’t going to help him emotionally either. Young pitchers tend to want to prove too much – take that opportunity away.

Why not back him up? There’s plenty of time even if he isn’t ready until the Pirates home opener.

In the long run, it’s just not worth it.

–

Yeah – David Price put one hell of a scare into the Rays by coming up with shoulder stiffness causing the Rays to send him to Doc Eaton.

The Pirates will see RHP Jeff Niemann, one of the Rays’ top prospects, Sunday in Bradenton, followed by RHP Jae Kuk Ryu, RHP Scott Munter, LHP Kirt Birkins and RHP Wade Davis.

–

Usually NL clubs adopt the DL early in spring training but some clubs don’t, like the Reds. It’s interesting because it forces their pitchers into live at bats before the season starts. We’re not contending for anything this year so, to me as a fan, it doesn’t really make a difference. But it’s a smart move for those who feel they have a chance.

–

A few new rule changes in the short season leagues have been adopted today by the Playing Rules Committee, as well as other MLB rules that weren’t noted other than a coach having to remain in the box until a batted ball passes him. Read about them here.

–

I heard about the Pirates ticket sales lagging. What did anyone expect to see.. more sales? They will sell a healthy walk-up crowd. You know, all of those who refused to buy packages thinking they were showing the organization something. Now they will pay more. LoL

Go get your tickets.

–

Here’s a canned article at Minor League Baseball’s site on the Pirates minor league system.

–

Culture change on Colorado’s roster? The model to follow is “in God we trust?”

Yeah.. riggghhhttttttt.

Any other ideas?

The team is calling it “minor irritation” in the shoulder and he’s expected to pitch Sunday.

Nothing to worry about yet.

We’ve already talked here that Gorzelanny would have to be handled with kid gloves this year because of his pitch count loads last year. No big deal if he’s managed right.

There’s two ways to look at this.. one, it’s nothing and will go away with a little rest as most irritation problems do; or two, it’s a clear warning shot across the bow of the ship – why even take the risk of pushing the team this year?

We’ll see.

You won’t find the Manatee Community County Lancers in the top 25 Junior College rankings. In fact, you won’t even find one player on their roster in any of the top 200 JC player lists headed for the 2008 draft.

But they did have a nineteen-year-old by the name of Scott Rembisz who happens to lead NJCAA Division 1 baseball in wins for all starters over 23 innings pitched. He won 1st Team All-State, All-Suncoast Conference and Suncoast Pitcher of the Year honors as a freshman, had been selected to the JUCO East Squad All-Star team last year, and named to the Louisville Slugger All-America team during his senior season in high school.

Rembisz entered the Pirates game 5-0 with a 2.94 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 33 innings of work, so he’s no push over by any means.

But the Bucs still hit him and walked away with a four run lead after the first and only inning Rembisz would pitch, no thanks to defensive blunders by the Lancers. The only two players the Pirates started with more than 75 at bats in the bigs, other than no-bat Raul Chavez, proved to be too much for Rembisz as Ryan Doumit and Doug Mientkiewicz combined to hit rockets bringing home two runs each.

Yoslan Herrera’s stuff proved to be a bit too much for the Manatees to respond in the first.

Nick Debacker took over for the Lancers in the second, a decent reliever in NCJAA land, and held the Bucs to three hits and no runs over the next two frames. Herrera followed suit in the second inning and Jesse Chavez matched Herrera with a shutout inning of his own, striking out two of the four batters he faced.

That was about all the action until the Pirates got to Jose Hernandez (no relation to Jose that played with us last year, I’m told) when Raul Chavez brought home Pearce in the 5th.

I saw Brian Bixler walked in two of the three at bats he had which I thought was pretty impressive, lower competition notwithstanding, Andrew McCutchen racked up his first SB despite going just 1-5, Steven Pearce continued his mashing ways after being told he was heading to Indy to start the year by going 2 for 3, and even Daniel Moskos got into the act with three groundball outs in his one inning of relief.

As I said, Bucs Win! Bucs Win!

–

Ok.. now a few questions. 

Cutch reached first and then Bixler doubled to left but McCutchen only made third. I wasn’t there so I can only assume Cutch had to play Bixler’s hit half way in case it was caught. Since it was in left, you would think he should have been able to ramp up most of the way to second while waiting with his speed.

Anyway, then Walker grounded out to first and Cutch was still standing at third??? Hmm.. ok.. maybe it was a bullet, but why wasn’t he going on contact with no outs in a development training game? Just curious..

Nice to see Mientkiewicz go 1st to 3rd on Thompson’s single to right in the 3rd. It was also nice to see that Walker and Raul Chavez teamed up to catch a theft at third.

–

Several teams are fielding close to their starting lineups from day one I noticed in the box scores today. It makes a lot of sense.

Why spend half the spring trying to make evaluations on players when, instead, you allow your better players to get 75 at bats or more under their belts heading to opening day?

–

Did they really say that?

“More teams are putting together packages that accentuate the food products as much if not more than the event.” — Steve Greenberg, former Pirates marketing executive talking about the Pirates new ‘All-You-Can-Eat’ seating section.

The Pittsburgh Business Times article notes that if ”a family of four bought the “all-you-can-eat” tickets on the day of the game, it would cost $160. Normally, tickets in the outfield reserved section cost $17, if purchased on an individual basis.

“A family of four could attend the game at a cost of $68, meaning they would have to eat $92 worth of hot dogs and hamburgers to justify the price.”

Ouch.

–

Someone close to the game who responded to my post yesterday on batting Sanchez first said:

“Freddy doesn’t walk enough to warrant him leading off.”

Ok.. fair statement. But also consider he’s been hitting third and his job is to put the ball in play and move runners, not to take walks, albeit Sanchez isn’t a walk machine in any case.

In limited career at bats (184), Sanchez has a .337/.371/.484 split hitting #1. Ichiro Suzuki has a .334/.379/.437 split over thousands of at bats. But supporting my conviction Sanchez would succeed as a leadoff hitter is the fact he has a .357 career OBP in the three hole in nearly 1,000 plate appearances as well.

My point is, it doesn’t matter if you hit the ball exceedingly well to get on base or you draw a lot of walks plus hit the ball well too. On base is on base.

It just makes sense to give it a try.

–

Heard around Pittsburgh circles: John Russell doesn’t like flashiness so expect Nate McLouth to be the favorite to open in center. Now, does Morgan head to Indy to play left along side of Cutch setting up a future outfield of Morgan, McCutchen, and Doumit? Hmm.. don’t be too surprised.

That raises the question, does Huntington then believe that Pearce, Walker, McCutchen, Morgan, Doumit, Bixler, possibly Ford, and Paulino are the guys to build around?

Today at Pirateball.com, Kyle Stark is quoted as saying:

“Steve Pearce is a younger guy who we want to build around.”

No offense, but, boy, I sure hope not. We have that playing out right now with the ‘no power’ offense in Pittsburgh. That one is even worse.

And no, that doesn’t mean I’m down on Pearce. Just the combination of eight above.

–

Pedro Alvarez has been sideline with a broken bone in his right hand.

Most are saying it won’t derail his prospect status, but with lingering questions where he would play every day anyway, I still have my money on Brian Matusz.

–

So, we might be moving our AAA affiliate to Buffalo, huh?

–

All eyes should be on Phil Dumatrait in Clearwater tomorrow. If he doesn’t break the rotation, which seems a bit out there right now, he’s probably going to be groomed to fill Damaso Marte’s role in the pen.

Easy goes it Gorzy.. easy goes it.

–

Heard around Bradenton circles: Zach Duke looks like he has regained his ’05 form.

–

TOGA PARTY!!!!!!!!

Damn those Brooks boys know how to have fun. I wonder if red cups are optional?

–

* blub * blub * blub *

The sound of the rocket sinking at sea.

–

Let me understand this.. if you drive drunk with red hair as a Cardinal, you get canned. But if you drive drunk as a Cardinal with little to no hair, you get to manage the team? Notice in the article the Cardinals kept Spiezio despite the assault charges until they found out alcohol was involved. 

Spooky.

You make the call –

You are Neal Huntington in your first year as GM of the Pirates and your job is to rebuild the organization. Included in your job responsibilities is a mandate from ownership that fans have to keep flowing through the gates, although they understand there will be some hits.

Your roster includes three potential blue chip players in Jason Bay, Tom Gorzelanny, and Ian Snell, and few other chips like Xavier Nady, Jack Wilson, and Freddy Sanchez.

Bay has had a significant statistical downturn the last two years and other clubs wonder if his best days aren’t already in his past. Silently you wonder too. You pencil Gorzelanny in as the only untouchable blue chip of the group wanting to sign him long-term in a few (say five years). Snell enters 2008 at 26 years of age and you wonder how much more he has in the tank before he reaches his trading peek.

Now the dilemma.. you have to decide how to construct your batting order and pitching rotations for 2008. Questions like where do you bat Bay, Sanchez, and Wilson, or how do you slot Snell and Maholm to maximize their value in-season without appearing that you are doing just that hound you daily. Your now at the point in spring training you have to make a decision.

Do you:

A. Maximize player value regardless of outcome (higher probability fewer wins will be achieved) knowing your ultimate goal is to get value for value down the line?

B. Do your best to maximize player value and obtain wins while still respecting ownership’s desire to be funded with gate proceeds (probability of more wins than in A above)?

C. Construct lineups and slotting orders that put your club in the best position to win every day regardless of how much it may hurt player value down the line (probability of even more wins than in A or B above)?

It’s not as easy a decision as you may think. But the path Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly decide to take in the next 15-30 days will, in all probability, define much of their success or failure over the next two and one-half years while rebuilding.

–

The table below shows how each of our lineup positions have done the last two years against the National League average. The results are one-year differences. Last Out is who made the last out in an inning.

The reasons that caused the deficiencies are not relevant. What is relevant is that they exist.

Take our #4 hitter, for example. He’s getting as many plate appearances as the average #4 batter on a NL club yet makes the final out .7% more often. So who ever is batting in the #5 slot is, of course, leading off more often than average. That’s not good because, typically, that’s the lineup position that holds a power oriented player who strikes out more often than average.

And look at the lack of run production – scoring and producing – from our #3 hitter. That’s obscene. Again, don’t focus on why it might be happening.. just focus on the fact it is happening.

Interestingly, our #8 batter is hitting 12.8% better than the NL average. Think about that a second. On one hand, that sounds good because the pitcher can move him around. On the other hand, why haven’t we concentrated in getting those players more at bats?

Remember this table from Part III of my ‘Are We Really Getting Better’ series?

Hmm.. look at that. We are getting the same number of at bats as the average MLB club, getting on base about the same considering the extra hit batters we have and the near same number of hits, but we aren’t scoring runs. Yes, the lack of home runs are a big part of that, but not even 40 of the 71 runs.

We don’t have any clutch – or - we’re placing the clutch we do have in the wrong lineup slots. It has to be one or the other.

Now, it’s not like we have a lot of choices in where we can bat certain players since the only true middle of the order guys we have are Bay and LaRoche.

Then there’s Nady.. perhaps the most underutilized player on the Pirates roster. Why? Because he’s had the third best percentage of runs batted in on the club the last two years but has been buried in the lineup. Look how few opportunities Nady has had last two compared to one year of LaRoche:

The rbi opportunity stats are from Baseball Prospectus. OBI is others batted in (RBI-HR), ROB is runners on base, R1BI% is the percentage of runs batted in from first base.

Ah.. now it’s starting to come together. For all Freddy Sanchez is doing (19% OBI, 20.8% R2BI%), and knowing he has predominately batted third the last two years and knowing how large our productivity deficit was for our #3 batter, obviously Mr. Sanchez needs to be hitting some where else. He’s spinning his wheels.

But look at Paulino and Nady – very impressive. And despite the opportunities, Jack Wilson just isn’t getting the ‘clutch’ job done.

Ok.. so moving Wilson out of the eight hole to the two hole is a no-brainer but only if we can get an extremely high on base player batting in front of him so his bat control makes sense. A case could be made for either McLouth/Morgan or Bautista, but I’m going to suggest Sanchez and keep my speed behind later OBP for use later in the lineup.

So we have Sanchez leading off, Wilson batting second, and the obvious #3 batter has to be Xavier Nady. That leaves LaRoche batting fourth, Bay batting fifth, Paulino batting sixth, Bautista batting seventh, and then flip a coin if the pitcher should bat before Morgan or McLouth. It wouldn’t hurt with Bautista’s OBP potential and slower foot speed.

So there you go.. one lineup that utilizes ‘clutch’ performance based on runs batted in production, as well as attempts to satisfy meeting lineup slot performance, is:

Sanchez
Wilson
Nady
LaRoche
Bay
Paulino
Bautista
Morgan/McLouth/Pitcher
Pitcher/Morgan/McLouth

That also hopes to keep Paulino from hitting into too many double plays since, hopefully, Nady, LaRoche, and Bay will have cleared the runners by the time he comes to the plate, it puts speed late, and it, hopefully, pushes the third out past the #4 hitter more often than not.

It’s just one idea of probably 100 floating around the Pirates front offices right now. But maybe it isn’t.. batting Sanchez first is a bit unorthodox, but he’s being wasted batting #3. So who knows. Also, many NL managers like speed early but I’m not as high on the value of speed, although our #1 batter has scored at the NL average last two. But I think Sanchez will score even more this way.

Lastly, now consider the implications of this lineup with the first part of this post. How does it affect player value and wins? To me, it attempts to raise values for Sanchez (perhaps debatable), Nady, Bay, and Wilson.

You?

Quite a few asked if I would sign Bonds and my answer all along has been sure, why not? I’d write a contract that says he gets paid “X” amount if he remains with the club all year and “Y” amount if indicted. In other words, I’d stand behind him until proven otherwise.

I mean, is he going to be that big of a distraction to a rebuilding club? Hardly. And judging by the amount of email I’ve received on this subject the last month or two, I’d say he’d be a very good gate draw in Pittsburgh.

And to be perfectly blunt, the entire baseball community knows we need more right-hand power.

Shoot, move Bay to right and play Sanchez 10 steps on the grass if his arm is healthy. Then close your eyes and cross your fingers when you hear the crack of the bat off one of our pitchers.

–

I think this guy is actually smelling himself.

And he gets paid to write that crap.

Wow.

–

Kim’s contract isn’t guaranteed? Ok.. smart move Huntington and Coonelly. But tell me, what’s the chance of him not making the roster if he throws strikes?

–

Rumor heard in St. Petersburg: David Price wants to pitch against the Bucs March 22cd if he’s still in camp. And guess what, Maddon set his slots up to seemingly give him the chance. Interesting..

Oh.. and the rumor goes he thinks he can no-hit us as a springboard to staying in the rotation this year.

Ouch.

–

Two years of a seemingly declining Jason Bay to the Giants for Tim Lincecum? Evidently, that’s the idea some Pirates fans have.

Forget it.. won’t happen.

Lincecum’s a bit over rated in my book, but Brian Sabean isn’t.

JSeiner wrote a very nice NLCD preview you might want to read. In the article he suggests the Pirates could win 3 to 5 more games this year.

At least half those extra wins will have to come on the road, if not all of them, I’m guessing.

The last two years the Pirates have won a paltry 34% of their road games (55-107) despite playing in some very friendly run scoring environments. Take Miller Park for example. In 2006 the Pirates raked 5.2 runs per game and in 2007 saw a 40% reduction to 3.1. Yet the Brewers have averaged allowing 4.7 runs per game over the period AND actually gave up more there in 2007 than in 2006.

We have to do better.

With that thought in mind, I broke down the Pirates production on the road the last two years against teams we will face again this year. I then took our production and compared it to the average production each team allowed over the period to get a feel for where we bomb and where we play hard.

Here’s the table: 

The rows for the White Sox and Orioles are empty for the Pirates stats because we didn’t play there the last two years. The ERA columns show the teams ERA over the two years in the park and the second column shows the ERA against the Pirates over the two years. Each column set is like that for each category like H/9, HR/9, etc.

As you can see, the Pirates have experienced run per game deficits (last column) against every single club except four – the Rockies, Reds, Giants, and Mets, who they matched the club’s average. Many of them are very close like the D’backs just -0.1 R/G off. But look across at the Pirates winning percentage in Arizona and you’ll see a shocker.. just 17%. Wow. Now that’s a bit unlucky.

So that leads us to our expected wins on the road in 2008. The table below shows the number of games we play at each away park, as well as our Expected Runs, and Expected Wins. I estimated games for the White Sox and Baltimore at the bottom.

Thirty wins.. that’s what is expected based on the last two years of historical stats.

To improve our away record, it has to start against some of the better pitching and scouting clubs in the game like San Diego, Arizona, and Atlanta, and in some of the more intimidating places there are to play for younger players like Dodger and Shea stadiums.

Then we have to take care of business against teams we should be beating like the Nationals, Marlins, Orioles, and White Sox.

If we do, five more wins is very realistic.

–

For those wondering, the correlation between the Pirates winning percentage on the road and runs scored was highest at .686 – not quite as high as I expected. Interestingly, BB/9 produced a .579 and HR/9 a .567 - both higher than I did expect to see. H/9 was .468, and K/9 an expected inverted -.131.

–

Now this is scary.

Anybody else read Alan Schwartz’s article on the Bucs in the New York Times? It’s a good read. But someone tell me, does anyone you know button their top button on a polo shirt anymore? I guess I’m out of the fashion loop anymore.

Come on Neal, relax.

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I had a great email question today. Harrison from outside Pittsburgh asked if I would keep Mientkiewicz in favor of Doumit and add Chavez to the 25-man.

Wow.. tough question.

I assume Doumit is not out of options – that the Pirates could sneak one out of MLB, although I have no earthly idea if he is out or not. If he is out, then the decision is a lot harder.

Mientkiewicz brings a lot of offensive capability to the club if his hand/wrist is healthy. The problem with him is that he only can play first. He doesn’t have the arm for right except on a limited basis, he doesn’t have the hands or athleticism for the hot corner any more, and he doesn’t have enough speed or cover ability to even think about in center. Even left at PNC would be too much for him, be my guess.

So no, not right now I wouldn’t because we aren’t going to contend unless Duke and Morris have unbelievable career years as our #4 and #5 arms, we find some pen depth, and our bats decide to romp.

But boy.. I’m close to saying yes. My senses tell me Mientkiewicz would end up giving me 300 at bats with solid OBP which is what I badly need. And as a pull hitter from the left side, he might just surprise everyone with added power. He could be a huge park friendly sleeper IF healthy.

But we have to have defense too and Doumit’s arm plays well in right, albeit I think Mientkiewicz has the better bat and could probably cover the ball just about as flashless as Doumit does.

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Here’s a nice article by John Lembo of the Bradenton Herald on Matt Capps.

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Join the movement – retire 21. It’s long over due.