The Bucs open in Atlanta where they have a .219 winning percentage their last 32 games, Ian Snell starts who has never won at Turner Field, the Pirates have only won two away opening day games since 2001, the house will be packed with screaming fans, every one of them believing their club is going to win the World Series this year, and our guys will take the field not having been able to hit AA pitching, much less quality arms, this spring.

On paper this is a blow out game.

But throw all that out the door because we have something going for us the Braves and their fans are unlikely to think about – we have nothing to lose.

They have everything to lose in front of their crazed fans.

So. Bring. It. On. Chop. Flop. 

–

Snell’s pitch selection is going to be the key to the Pirates game. If he keeps the ball in the yard, the Pirates have a shot. With an expected wind of 8 – 10 mph blowing to left field, Snell simply can’t be drilling 2-1 and 0-2 heaters in the zone. If he keeps them off-balance and guessing, and he isn’t afraid to pitch inside, he could have a very good game.

If he tosses watermelons up to the plate on expected counts, he could be gone by the third inning.

Player to watch: Brian McCann who has seen 33% of his career hits off Snell go yard.

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Paulino, Bay, and LaRoche to be Monday’s tough outs?

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I received a lot of email today asking if I really believed the Pirates will win 75 this year. Sure, after all, that’s what Martha said.

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Jay Gibbons? Naw. I wouldn’t.

Barry Bonds? Yeah. I would.

–

Anyone hear how Tom Gorzelanny’s simulated work went today? < fingers crossed >

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Like last year, I’ll have an in-depth analysis of every game this year.

Ah, the traditional last game of spring where guys you didn’t even know existed end up getting one shot to show their stuff.

Thank gosh for the flu, huh? (Both the Pirates and Twins are experiencing bouts.)

Take twenty-year-old Venezuelan rookie Edward Garcia, for instance. With two outs and two on in the 7th and Capps on the hill, Garcia was about to make a nice catch to end the inning but… he dropped it, and two runs scored.

Or how about seeing guys like Kyle Pearson on the mound when most Pirates fans wrote him off to an unannounced injury a couple of years ago, or Kris Watts behind the dish when many believed he’d never see a pro game past AA, or even Eddie Prasch who many thought seemed to fit better in center than third where he plays now out of high school.

That’s good stuff, and a refreshing ending to spring training for the kids.

But the other side of all that is that we have a major league roster who don’t seem to be picking up the spin of the ball up very well, much less arm slots or even release points, as few players have hit quality pitching this spring.

Perhaps it will take everyone 25 – 30 at bats to get into the groove? If so, that’s a shame because that is exactly what spring training is for. Unfortunately, the Pirates didn’t see a lot of quality starters this year and, when they did, it was on the road with an abbreviated lineup.

I’m not so sure we’re ready, but I said that last year and we came out winning. But winning in Houston early in the year isn’t quite the same as winning in Atlanta, so we’ll see.

–

Matt Morris holding the Twins to six hits and two runs over six frames is not exactly what I would call “a step forward” by any means. Throw in the three walks and it seems to me Mr. Morris has yet to fall back to his original mechanics tweaked by Jeff Andrews.

If Morris brings that downward plane crap to Florida with him in his first start, he’s going to get absolutely tar and feathered.

–

If you haven’t noticed already, MLB’s Gameday now tells you things like the type of pitch thrown, velocity, spin, and fall of the pitch. It’s really good stuff. 

Of the few intense research papers that came out over the winter on the validity of the current Pitchf/x system, one point stood out in all of them – it isn’t pinpoint accurate and never may be. As of last year, the system was said to be off as much as 2 1/2 inches which is nearly 15%.

Not only will I be archiving the data from our pitchers, but I’ll be doing the same for our batters and reporting to you what I’m finding. But again, it isn’t perfect science yet even though others may make it seem like it is. If you see a pitch go over the black on Gameday and then called a ball, remember it might actually be an inch or more off the plate.

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I’m hearing there is a little bit of talk between the Rays and Pirates. Not sure what is up. Perhaps all Huntington wants to do is get Meek under org control? Perhaps there’s more? I’ll post more when I hear more.

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So Freddy Sanchez all of a sudden declared himself ready to go? That’s a good sign, but one I take with a grain of salt because the man wouldn’t have run off for a second opinion if he wasn’t having problems. For now I’ll assume he’s willing to play through the discomfort since Doc Andrews said it was no big deal, but keep in the back of your mind he could end up with a lot more days off than any of us expect during the first few weeks.

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“[Trading of Jack Wilson] Outlook: Although ears will remain open, the Pirates almost certainly need to get a shortstop back before moving Wilson. There is no sure-fire, everyday shortstop at any level of the system.” — Post-Gazette Sunday.

I beg to differ – they have a couple but the one guy I think has the best upside, and is closest to the majors, is Shelby Ford. Unfortunately, the Pirates turned him around and have had him playing second.

He has a rifle arm but is a bit limited in range for short, although that shouldn’t be a disqualifier if Huntington is going to move to power arms and an athletic third baseman in Walker. Ford also has a projectable MLB average bat for a middle infielder so what are the Pirates waiting for?

Turn Ford back around where he is happiest, plays the best game, and can help this org down the road. Give Bixler all the time he needs but move him out of the way if Ford busts his way through the system with a little push.

In a well written piece by Dejan (did I really just say that?) was this golden nugget:

“Honestly, trade talk is something you have to deal with in this business every year,” Russell said. “We’ve told the players what we expect of them, and we like what we’re hearing back.”

That might be simply because the players have a clear picture by now: Win, and they might stay together. Win in a convincing manner, and their group might be considered the core for the future.

But, if they lose …

“Oh, we get traded,” Wilson said.

“If we get off to a start like last year, everything’s fair game,” LaRoche said. “They can get rid of everybody.”

Hmm..

There has always been three truths in the player’s minds in Pittsburgh: you can play yourself out of town (ie: the club can’t afford you any more); you can minimize your game so you are no longer a desired product; or you can talk your way out.

Interestingly, Bay talked against the organization this winter. But if you remember last year, his performance went downhill about the end of May at the same time I reported there was a rumor floating about a shakeup in the organization. At that time I thought it was Nutting selling out, but it ended up being McClatchy announcing he was stepping down and, of course, DL got canned months later.

Now remember that – Bay’s performance tanked about the same time as I heard the rumor. Call it a coincidence all you want but I never have. To me, I think Bay wants to remain a Pirate because he’s not flashy – he’s not one to enjoy big city media all the time.

But how about Jack Wilson? He was puke city until all of a sudden his name came up as a possible trade candidate in mid-June or so. He bit the dust down the July stretch probably because of all the talk but, in his mind, he knew he was one step out the door. Over the last few months we saw a focused and determined man playing at levels unseen in years.

Obviously Wilson wanted out.

Salomon Torres didn’t want out and when the “rumor” came out, his game went into orbit and he ended up on the DL. How else do you stop a trade? Think 2003 Kris Benson.

Nady’s game started slow in 2007 but he proved he could handle right-hand pitching, albeit not all that well. But the point is, he also knew he was a trade candidate and wailed the ball through the “rumor period” only to tank like a lead ball after the trade deadline.

Every player has their own motivation, whether it to remain a Pirate because it’s fairly big money without the big-market hassles, or wanting a ring more than money as some players do.

And everyone of these guys opens the season knowing they could be dealt anytime. Now, we’ll watch to see how the bell tolls with them.

The Bucs handled the punchless Twins Friday in the second to last game of the spring. Bautista had a good day going 2-3 with a solo shot home run, and Gomez and Rivas continue to be the talk of camp with their high contact rates.

Other than Bautista’s HR, we really didn’t put much together until the Twins went to AAA free agent signee Brian Bass who, by my card, didn’t even have a plus pitch as of late 2006 with the Royals (I haven’t seen him since), and a guy I saw some in the Florida State League last year, Zach Ward who really doesn’t have much stuff to talk about.

But at least our limited lineup got to them and scored a couple of runs to win the game. On the other hand, Liriano and Dennys Reyes combined to throw a four-hitter over six frames while striking out 35% of the batters they faced. Bautista’s bomb was the only run.

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It’s an interesting storyline how the Pirates are refusing to bring over the better prospects like Walker and McCutchen to play a few MLB games. I’m not quite sure I understand why that is especially in road games, but I would have loved to see them both get a few AB against Liriano myself.

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Paul Maholm was shut down from his last spring start, as well as being flipped in the rotation with Duke starting the year, due to discomfort in his back again.

Huntington said the shut down was a simple case of being cautious knowing his back gave him fits last year.

Scary stuff. He was dominant all spring to be sure but perhaps that’s the end result of pushing himself too early? We’ll have to watch where this goes since he’s got quite a load on his shoulders this year in the way of expectations.

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Speaking of the Atlanta series, a quick review of Pirate batter’s career success against southpaws in Atlanta (small sample size warning, of course) doesn’t paint a pretty picture since we’ll be facing both Glavine and Hudson. Not one player is above the Mendoza line except Ronny Paulino.

The Pirates ended the 2007 season 2-8 and are now underdogs in Vegas three straight against the Braves.

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Hasbro Toys has been kind enough to provide an offer for one of my readers.

Hasbro has out a new baseball game called Bulls-Eye Baseball. It’s a mini skeet-ball type game made for ages seven and up (but don’t let the age thing fool you), and they have agreed to send one free to a reader who promises to write a meaningful review of the product that I’ll post here.

If you are interested, send me an email to:  by Sunday with a valid return email address and I’ll pick one and send you back Hasbro’s public relations email addy where you can give them your info and they will send the product to you.

Be forewarned: the game is said to be addictive.

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Neal Huntington: Freddy WILL BE our opening day second baseman. Period. End of story.

Ouch…??..

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Pirates are the surprise team in 2008, so says Larry Stone of the Seattle Times.

I sure wish Stone would have said “surprise winning team.”

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I found out today I live in what has to be the only zip code in the US that isn’t subjected to a blackout with MLB.tv. Imagine the luck.

I’ll start taking orders next week. Just kidding… just kidding.

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I have a lot of fun things getting cranked up that you’ll be able to use this year stat wise. From a Pitchf/x database with graphic depictions to lineup matchups and lots in between. Be watching for the unveiling after the season opens and I get a chance to tweak the programs. If you would like to beta test any of these statistical gadgets, send me an email (use the email link in the Hasbro section) and I’ll add about 20 people.

Legends Field was renamed George M. Steinbrenner Field today at the Pirates game. Now, naming Legends after George is no big deal since the man has singlehandedly given more to the City of Tampa than most could ever believe possible.

But poor Jo – she took the mound to deliver the ceremonial first pitch and what happened? It bounced. After the fireworks, military flyover, and ole George making his rounds in a golf cart to the applause of everyone, Pirates included, the Yankees then lost the game.

Dang those first pitches.

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Gorzy went six innings and a scout on hand said later he thought he looked more comfortable on the mound than his last outing, but not anywhere near where he needs to be. Perhaps he’s starting to trust his arm better now? That’s a good sign but also a worrisome one because that’s usually when arms break. We’ll just have to hope for the best.

Tossing a two-hitter over six frames against a lineup featuring just three Yankee starters (Jeter, Arod, and Posada who, by the way, hit a combined .300 off Gorzy including a walk and a home run), Gorzy tossed 55% (41) of his 74 pitches for strikes and saw batter after batter hacking early in the count like they just wanted the game over in a hurry or something. Balls were hit hard off him – he wasn’t fooling anyone. Plus, the Yankees starting eight had just two guys seeing the ball well their last few starts, so that’s also a bit of a concern. 

Nyjer Morgan was the nut of the day trying to lay a sac bunt down to move runners on 1st and 2cd over with no outs (vs putting the ball in play but the bunt might have been called from the dugout although doubtful because the runners weren’t in motion), the runner at third is out from an ineffective bunt to the wrong side of the diamond, and then Morgan gets picked at first for the second out.

LoL.. and they want to keep him on the roster instead of sending him down and letting him develop and learn how to play a TEAM game? Unbelievable.

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Nady watch: 0-3 with yet another strikeout.  

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AL scout on Doumit: “He’s no [Jeff] Clement. I can empathize with Neal’s position, but he wouldn’t be receiving on my club if I had a choice.” Later in the conversation he wondered aloud why the Pirates backed off their plans to put him in right.

I was glad to hear someone in the game felt the same way I did.

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Sean Burnett was added to the Indy roster Thursday afternoon late so he’s the odd-man out. I hope he goes down with a positive attitude and dominates. I’m guessing we’re going to need him down the road this year. 

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For those of you keeping track, one of the first lawsuits challenging Don Beaver’s plan to build a minor league park in Charlotte was denied. Beaver has some friends that would rather see a major league park built than spending the land and money for a minor league facility. There are still a round or two of challenges so it’s not over, but by the looks of things, Beaver will get his park.

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Pirateball.com reported today Sanchez played second for four innings after reporting to practice for the day feeling good. That’s a good first step. We’ll have to see if he remains pain-free.

And guess who was hitting in front of Sanchez all four innings? Chris Duffy. They raked.

Let me tell you, if Duffy can get on his feet quicker than we are anticipating (mid-May to June’ish), then you’ll see me start to get a little excited. Duffy, Sanchez, Bay would be a very solid top of the lineup. Very solid.

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There are some rumors floating around with Pirates names on them. Marte and Morgan were both linked to the Tigers today.

And no, the Rays need Bay or Nady like a whole in the head.

The story of the day is that the Pirates lost Todd Redmond for a middle reliever named Tyler Yates in a move that is reminiscent of Dave Littlefield’s trading days. I’ll probably be the only Pirate fan questioning this move but, I just don’t get it.

Forget for a second that the entire world knows the Pirates are a 90 loss club this year, and forget for a second that Yates is thirty-years-old and Redmond just twenty-two. Instead, concentrate on the big picture – that we just dealt for another middle reliever.

WTF? A free agent signing was one thing. A trade is quite another.

The really sad part about this deal is that Yates was probably going to be DFA’d by the Braves anyway and the Pirates have the right to claim first off the wire. Bingo – a player for free. So why deal Redmond even though many don’t feel he projects?

Bucco Blog fans know I’ve been high on Redmond since he was drafted. He doesn’t have one plus pitch but he does have three solid average pitches with at least two of them, I believe, that could have ended up being plus pitches over time. Especially if he continued to build his frame up. What he does have is plus-plus mound presence/maturity, plus-plus makeup, and plus-plus command.

Not many pitchers in our farm have two of those traits, much less all three.

But more importantly to us, Redmond hasn’t pitched any meaningful time past A-ball so even our pro scouts could only guess on his projectability and, let’s face it, they haven’t exactly been picking lottery numbers the last few years. Nor has Redmond ever spent any real time developing with quality instructors. But, believe it or not, we just sent him to a club that has those instructors and who will take him to the next level.

And he’ll do just that.

Eddie Epstein and company missed the boat on this deal, imo. I understand the Pirates want to look competitive and Yates has the potential to get out right hand batters, but my God, we have McLouth in center, Bautista at third, Nady in right, Sanchez on the pine, Doumit behind the dish to receive Yates of all things, and, even with Yates in the bullpen, a cast of nobodies in the pen. Not to mention a host of in-season trades that are probable.

We needed to trade for Yates like a hole in the head.

Besides, we had Carrasco, have Bullington, had Wright, have Meek, have Romulo Sanchez, and have Yoslan Herrera. Yates, IF he ends up being in 2006 form, might get us one more win each year but for $800k in 2008 and then two more years of arb money? Plus a twenty-two-year-old kid who throws strikes costing us minor league minimum wage?

We were taken to the cleaners, imo. I’m guessing Huntington plans to “build Yates’ value” and then flip him at the deadline. There can be no other explanation. But who will want an over the hill reliever who walks 20% of the batters he faces? And perhaps there is another reason, like flipping him right now to another team? Maybe.. maybe.

I know the fans will look at the stats Yates has put up and will drool thinking missed bats. You better think again. He’ll miss bats – no doubt about that. He’ll also miss the plate, the catcher, the umpire, and if the fans are lucky in the first row, the net will hold and he’ll miss them too. He’s wild as hell at times and his last nine months numbers, including this spring, are suggestive of an underlying injury.

But hey, what the heck do I know?

Epstein and company saw a low xERA and probably think he’ll survive well in the NLCD. I think he’ll get crushed in the smaller NLCD parks after walking 30% of the lineup away from PNC while striking out a batter here and there along the way. And if he’s used as a one-or-two-batter setup man like Marte from the other side, we have to have scored more runs than our opposition for Yates to even have a chance to make an impact. Fat chance that happens often.

I just don’t get it. Two thumbs down for trading our future for the present while needing to rebuild.

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The Padres picked up Justin Huber from the Royals ending speculation they would push at the last minute for Nady to use as a backup at first and the outfield.

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Ok, on to Tuesday’s game. I did not watch or listen to it since the box had just a few of Detroit’s starting lineup making the trip and none of those that did make the trip are even seeing the ball yet. Accordingly, Duke pitched well throwing a six-hitter over six frames while striking out 20% of the batters he faced. Now if you want to believe Duke will have lines like that very often in the regular season, you go right ahead and dream.

But he does seem to have his confidence back and part of that I’m guessing stems from the fact his arm finally rested good over the winter after being pushed from 148 IP in 2004 to 192 IP in 2005 and 215 IP in 2006. He was a breakdown candidate in 2007 from the two years of increased workload but escaped virtually unharmed, all things considered.

Now with his arm feeling better, maybe he’ll put it all back together again. Just remember this as the season drags on – he logged only 123 IP last year so when he starts hitting 150 or so, he just might tank hard.

Meek walked three batters in two innings but he’s a young pup and knows he’s on the bubble. I suspect that took a lot out of him – trying too hard to impress.

And how about Willis walking in two runs in the first and then watching his mound opponent rake in a few rbi’s with a single with the bases clogged? Good stuff there.

It’s interesting to watch Bay being walked so much in the three hole to get to LaRoche who is dialed-in this spring. Yet right behind LaRoche is Nady who can’t even turn on an 86 mph heater on his hands yet. What’s up with that X-man? Perhaps a 30″ piece of ash is in your future? It will come.. it will come.

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Looks like McCutchen is going to break with the Indy Indians. I should hear confirmation of that in a few days as Kyle Stark has agreed to answer a few questions for us.

Two outs, bottom of the fourth, a no-hitter in progress, a two strikes and no balls count on Jason Bay, and Kevin Slowey throws a heater that paints the black away as Bay stands and watches it go through the zone.

Home plate umpire John Hirschbeck hesitated just a second, noticed Slowey starting to retreat off the mound toward the dugout, and he rang out “Ball!” to the amazement of nearly everyone in the complex.

Slowey couldn’t believe it, Joe Mauer pumped the ball a couple of times in his glove before sending it back as if to suggest to Hirschbeck he badly missed the call, and Slowey retreated back to the rubber with his head down. It was obvious at that point Slowey was beat.

The missed call opened the door to the Pirates who went on to score three runs in the inning off a bloop single by Bay, a double (misplayed liner by Monroe that was an easy out) to center by LaRoche scoring Bay, a ground ball through the second base hole that Michael Cuddyer ran in on and tried to gun down LaRoche at the plate but his throw was up the third base line (LaRoche was dead meat with a throw anywhere near the plate) allowing Doumit to take second, and a frozen rope single to right by Nady scoring Doumit.

Young Slowey learned a major league lesson not to tease veteran MLB umpires, Mauer learned there are times he needs to take a slow walk to the mound to calm his battery mates down, and Bay should have learned not to keep the bat on his shoulder with an 0-2 count and a locked-in pitcher on the mound.

To be sure, Slowey dominated the Pirates meek bats until he lost his composure, fatigue set in, and his mental state took him out of the game. In all, he delivered 32 pitches in the inning but should have been out and on the pine in less than 10.

It was at that point I turned the game off. I had seen enough.

I had watched four innings of Ryan Doumit pretending to be a MLB receiver, bouncing up and down behind the dish like a jackrabbit, flapping his glove tipping location, setting up early, failing to implement even the basics of blocking I had been led to believe by local media he had developed this spring (his guards were routinely in the air, his posture angled to the side and backwards instead of curled forward and square to the ground, his feet a twisted mess, etc, etc, etc), and his game management, while it seemed improved, was probably the result of the bench calling the pitches – not Doumit’s “improved” skills.

John Russell needs to take Doumit into the ProBatter cage and load it up with about 50,000 balls and set the machine to drop 90 mph hooks and sliders on the dish until he learns, first and foremost, how to square his body, curl, and to get his knees on the ground deadening the ball off his chest back toward the plate. Until Doumit can do that every pitch, every game, he doesn’t need to be behind the dish because he’s taking away the confidence of his staff to throw out pitches and deep sinkers.

Simply put, Doumit is just as poor a receiver as he was last year. If I’m Huntington, I go sign Doug Mirabelli to be the backup, leave Doumit on the bench as a utility outfielder, and send Morgan down to AAA knowing he’s just a couple hours away if needed. But that’s me.

I also saw Nate McLouth in center fielder today. He’s just not a smart defensive player, by any means. He can cover the ball adequately within his zone, but he still has that “take a step in then freeze” routine that’s always hurt him on balls hit at him. And he continues to leave his feet way too often.

In the fourth he made a fabulous diving catch on a line drive that was quickly dying from a stiff wind blowing in and he made it laying out and stretching for the ball catching it in the web of his glove. But that’s the point – he got lucky… very lucky. Nady was circling around behind him at the warning track and quite a ways from him so, if he missed it, it was a sure double and probably a triple.

I’m all for defenders leaving their feet with a good bead on the ball and help nearby but McLouth didn’t have either and risked injury and giving up extra bases, not to mention a possible easy run. I would have rather seen him play it on the hop for a single and let Snell go about his business.

BTW, McLouth was named the team’s opening day center fielder after the game so congrats to him. He’ll do ok, although he’ll end up giving more runs up defensively than he’s worth offensively. Hurry back Duff. Morgan will be the late inning defensive guy?? The late inning speedster?? He needs to be in Indy with his clock stopped, imo.

I also saw, as I suspected from earlier box scores and play-by-play reads, that runners are taking off more on Nady’s arm too. Man that’s not a good sign. We already have runners taking extra bases on Bay, McLouth’s arm is not even average, and now Nady is getting run on? Wow. Mark my word – our inability to halt the running/extra base game this year is going to kill us if we don’t take some measures to fight it off real quick.

It was an ugly win. Very ugly. But that’s what spring is all about. That is, IF we learn from our mistakes.

–

For those wanting to know, Snell was high in the zone early with a tick above average Juggs-type heat and got away with it. His slider looked tight after an inning or two but most of his hooks and changeups were deadly flat. If he throws like that in Atlanta the way the Braves are seeing the ball right now, he’s going to get hurt bad.

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More word came out about Freddy Sanchez’s little rift with the front office over his injury. Bob Walk reported today that Sanchez stated he has “pretty severe pain” when unloading a throw. Neal Huntington came out today and said he expects Sanchez to be in the opening day lineup. Later in the broadcast we heard Sanchez was rumored to have said he didn’t think he would be ready.

Now I used the word “rift” but I think that’s a bit strong. Perhaps “difference of opinion” is a better way to put it? Huntington has been on the record with a suggestive tone that he will wait for Sanchez to tell him when he’s ready. That, of course, is significantly different than Littlefield nearly ordering Sanchez to play through his pain early last year.

But one thing is for sure – if Sanchez doesn’t find a physician to come forward with more than an inflammation issue, he better start taking shots, continue packing ice, taking Motrin, and working his way back into the lineup asap or he could find one of the old school guys taping a pacifier to his locker real soon.

Baseball is a game you play through discomfort. Not pain – just discomfort.

Huntington, I’m sure, won’t even ask Freddy to play with pain. No GM would. But if the inflammation responds to treatment, which I assume it is otherwise they wouldn’t have him scheduled to play this week some, and Sanchez continues to complain, the only thing left is exploratory surgery to eliminate the question marks. I doubt we’ll ever see that unless Sanchez continues to experience unexpected “severe pain.”

“Huntington said Sanchez may get a few more off days than normal in April as a concession to the shoulder but does not anticipate it being a long-term problem.” – John Perrotto, Beaver County Times Tuesday

In the meantime, Rivas looked very fluid at second today. It was just one game but he looks to have more range at the position than Sanchez. That should be a good thing for us.

Here’s an article on Rivas from the Baseball in Fort Wayne blog. It’s a very nice read.

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The Post-Gazette is reporting Kim will be bought out. After reading about Kim exiting the complex on the day he was to pitch, that’s to be expected.

The article suggests Mientkiewicz seems to be a lock, and one of Josh Wilson or Jorge Velandia will break north with the team if Sanchez is left in Bradenton, which I expect to see happen.

I would either sign Mirabelli or bring up Chavez putting Doumit on the pine, and send Morgan down to AAA.

As for the relievers, the article suggests Osoria will make it but for the life of it, I can’t tell you why. He didn’t impress me last year in the farm, his career numbers and MLE’s don’t suggest he should make it, and we seem to have a lot better candidates.

Meek has too much potential upside to turn back over to the Rays. His career numbers, and those I’ve talked to around the Rays, all suggest he needs to be kept on the 25-man.

I’d break with Wright, Meek, Carrasco, and go with the long shot Dumatrait, and send Burnett down to Indy. If Osoria is making the roster no matter how bad he really is, then I’d replace Dumatrait.

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“Pre-game ceremonies beginning at 6:30 p.m. will feature a video tribute to the Braves storied franchise, the longest continuously operating franchise in Major League Baseball. After full squad introductions, recording star Diana DeGarmo will sing the National Anthem and pilots from Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base, New Orleans will perform a fly over in F-18 Hornets.

“Nationally touring country band Whiskey Falls will perform their song “Load up the Bases”, written for the Braves 2008 season, pre-game in Fan Plaza, and will sing God Bless America during the 7th inning stretch. Country music star Eric Church will lead fans in Take Me Out to the Ballgame following God Bless America, as the Braves celebrate the start of the 2008 season.” — Braves press release on opening day events Monday.

I guess we should tune in around, oh, 8:00 PM for the first pitch? Geez.

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“The only thing Tampa is going to be fighting for now is draft positioning with the likes of the Pittsburgh Pirates – another pathetic franchise that I am going to have rip apart at some point soon.” — Run in the Belleville News-Democrat, a newspaper owned by The McClatchy Company that Pirates minority owner Kevin McClatchy sits on the Board of.

Ouch.

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Here’s the 2008 Hickory Crawdads Media Guide in Microsoft Word doc format. Right-click the link and then click “Save As.” Hat tip to John Setzler.

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My Strat-O-Matic says the Bucs will win 69 games BEFORE trades, injuries, and the like. I’ll have my annual prediction this weekend.

Kudos to Matt Morris for keeping his composure despite a juggernaut series of defensive implosions behind him. Without going into detail let me just say, we played a horrid game on the field Monday. End of story, let’s move on.

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I talked again to someone close to many of the players today and asked what the heck is going on – the guys look lost in space. If you remember, I was told a couple of weeks ago that the guys just needed some time to get used to everything.

Today the answer was short, sweet, and to the point – “[many players] are still uncomfortable.” That was all I could get out of them.

I have to guess from the things I’m hearing, so I’ll assume that not one starting position player feels secure right now. Bay, Wilson, McLouth, and Nady are well-talked-about trade targets, McLouth and Morgan are fighting for a position they know they won’t hold more than a year or two at best, Sanchez’s name has come up at times during the winter, LaRoche has to feel he’s also on the block, Bautista is being pushed by the fans and Neil Walker, and Doumit is getting more than his share of attention from Russell et al leaving Paulino to wonder if he’ll even have a position in 6 months.

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago Huntington needed to clear the young prospects out of the dugout and send them to minor league camp so they weren’t exposed to the flow of negativity around the older players, and, surprisingly, he did that in quick order. That’s helped their cause, and also helped the established guys. One prospect told me last week that the “air is fresher” over on the other side of the complex.

I’m sure he’s right.

But don’t misunderstand the negativity. It isn’t about Russell and his staff, it isn’t about Coonelly and his front office, it isn’t about position battles, and it isn’t about the makeup of the club. Instead, it’s about the innate need to feel secure in life. And right now, there isn’t much to feel secure about if you are a starting position player on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Look for this club to come out of the starting gate looking tired, beat, confused, and mistake-prone and then, hopefully, pull it together as the air of competition heats up their blood.

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It’s good to hear Sanchez is healthy enough to allow him to work his way back to playing every day. I’m sure he has a lot of questions in his own mind, but now that he can put it all behind him, perhaps in a week or two he’ll be ready to play.

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As I mentioned above, the rumor mill is picking up steam again as clubs try to fill last minute holes. I haven’t heard any specific Pirates rumors yet but they are certain to come out in the next few days after all the released players are picked through and discarded.

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Opponents have averaged more than one stolen base per game against us this spring. Look at these staggering caught stealing rates:

Doumit 7% in 78 innings and 15 attempts (1-15)
Paulino 25% in 58 innings and 8 attempts (2-8)
Chavez 13% in 42 innings and 8 attempts (1-8)
Hernandez 50% in 38 innings and 4 attempts (2-4)

Base runners are taking off at the rate of 1.7 per nine innings against Doumit. Now that’s high – more than two times our last four year rate which was over league average as it was. Remember now, Huntington’s Indians didn’t stress having a catcher who could throw out runners for years as Josh Bard (19% CS rate, .98 SBA per 9 career) was clearly inept at it. But if Doumit and his battery mates don’t start nailing some of these runners, they are in for a long season.

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We face the Twins a lot this week so unless they pull their main starters over to the minor league side to get their work, we might be in for a long week. Tuesday we face Slowley who handled the Reds last week and the Pirates will counter with Snell who at least doesn’t have to pitch on the road this time. Should be a good game.