I had the Pirates in game one of the series by virtue of the fact the Cardinals had been hitting under the Mendoza line last seven and the Pirates had racked up 108 total bases in that same period.  And Duke nearly pulled it off – he pitched a four hitter thru five innings but one of those was a two-run home run to Pujols.

Unfortunately, that’s all the runs they needed when Wellemeyer was on the mound as he held us to one run – McLouth’s first inning solo shot – on six hits over 7 frames.  The Cardinals pen – second best in the NLCD – shut down the Pirates the rest of the game… until the 9th.

With the Cardinals up 2-1 batting in the bottom of the second, Molina led off with a single to left and Barton put down a sac bunt Duke fielded and started to throw to first.  But nobody was there.  Sanchez was late to cover and Duke’s arm action prohibited him from stopping, the ball fell out and rolled past Sanchez, and both runners advanced another base. 

Wellemeyer then hit a liner to Nady and he uncorked a throw home that went 30 feet up the third base line allowing Molina to score but Chavez was able to grab the one-hop relay and he threw to Mientz to nail Barton trying to advance to third.

The score remained 3-1 until the Cardinals came up in the 7th and it was if Ringling Brothers unloaded the clown van and they suited up in Pirates uniforms for the half inning. 

With Tyler Yates on the mound wilder then hell, Ankiel sent a line drive to left field.  For some odd reason, Bay left his feet diving for the ball which bounced five feet in front of him and Ankiel had a triple.  There was no excuse for Bay to leave his feet on Ankiel’s single since there was no outs and it was a two run game.

But he did.

And wouldn’t you know it, Kennedy then ground out to LaRoche which was hit hard enough for a double play if Bay had held Ankiel to a single.  Ankiel had to hold at third.  Then with Izturis up, Yates attempted a pickoff at third and nearly threw the ball away but Mientz made a good stop. But it didn’t matter as Izturis punched a line drive to right to score Ankiel.  

Now again remember, most likely there would have been two outs when Izturis singled if Bay had done his job, but even if we didn’t double up Kennedy, the worst we would have had was men at first and third and one out – and no runs in yet.  Since Ryan then hit a sharp ground ball to Mientz which would have easily been a double play ball, the inning would have ended harmlessly and the score still 3-1.

But the clowns showed up so let me rewind all this and tell you what else happened.

After the Ankiel triple, Kennedy smoked one to LaRoche for the first out and that held Ankiel, Izturis lined a catchable liner to right that Nady let fall in for some inexcusable reason, then Izturis was off on a hit-and-run which Ryan threw his bat at out of the zone and Chavez uncorked his throw into center allowing Izturis to take third, with the infield in Ryan smoked a grounder Mientz somehow got a glove on for the second out and holding Izturis at third, and then Mather ground one thru the left side to score Izturis.  That put the Cards up 5-1.

Of course, it should have been 3-1 without the clown acts, as I showed above.

And low and behold wouldn’t you know it, the Pirates came back and scored three runs in the 9th from a Michaels double in the left field corner with the bases loaded to make the score 5-4 Cardinals.

Not 4-3 Pirates.

There were a few more clown plays in the game I didn’t mention but they didn’t hurt us so I didn’t go into them.  Let’s just say this game was another example of too little effort early, too many clowns in between, and too late to make a difference.

–

Ho-hum…  Tyler Yates last five games:  8.18 ERA, 5 walks, 6 strikeouts, two blown saves.

And Russell just keeps calling his number.

–

Stop the presses! Burnett pitched the 8th inning and didn’t walk a batter.  Yeah ok, the Cards were up by 4 and there was a tornado watch in the area with lightening starting to flash close by. 

LoL

–

How about that three-run double by Michaels in the 9th — off a righty, no less.  Good stuff there.

–

Sanchez has gone ice cold.  He’s not even squaring up on the ball any more.  Perhaps it’s time to switch McLouth back to leadoff, Sanchez #2, and bury Wilson in the 8 hole since he trotted around the diamond like he’s still rehabbing his leg?

By the way, we are 3-4 with Wilson this year (.429) and 22-25 without him (.463).  We’ll see where this goes.

–

It seems like every other game we’re seeing rookies starting their career against us.  Bruce for the Reds, Mather Friday for the Cards, and now Saturday it will be Parasi on the mound for the Cardinals. 

You know things aren’t going well when almost every rookie in the division that has started, starts against your team. (The only one that didn’t was Tom Dillard of the Brewers so far).

–

Oppps… we officially claimed the cellar.  Well, we typically hammer AAA type pitchers so there’s hope.  There’s hope. 

–

It’s nice to see Shelby Ford back in action after being sidelined with a hip flexor.  He’s the real deal but still needs some time.  Believe it or not, in two years you’ll be saying “Sanchez who?” when you watch Ford at second.  He won’t win a batting title and he’ll never win a Gold Glove, but he’s got a cannon for an arm, a sweet compact swing, and pretty decent footwork and glove he’s been showing off after turning around from short.  Now can he stay healthy?

–

What an absolute blessing watching Chavez handle the umpire, opposing batters, and the staff.  Man I have really missed watching good caught games in Pittsburgh.  He’s horrid at the plate but in games Russell thinks he has enough offense without his stick, they should bat him 9th and let him catch.

He’s still very, very good. 

–

Yeah, yeah, the Mets are rumored to being after Bay or Nady again.  Perhaps there is some credibility to the rumor this time because the Pirates dumped a PR release via a Dejan interview Friday.  Basically the PR release said “we’re open for business if you want to deal MLB GM’s, but you’re going to have to pay ridiculous prices for our subpar talent because we believe we can still contend this year.”

I’m not hearing anything but that doesn’t mean something isn’t going on, of course. 

Consider this statement by Coonelly in that PR release:

“If our fans see one player getting traded, it doesn’t mean the red flag is up,” Coonelly said.”

Right Frank.  * wink wink *  

The white flag went up in December when you failed to deal then.

Look for Sanchez, Wilson, Bay, or Nady to be headed out the door here real soon.  If I was a betting man, I’d bet it’s Wilson.

 

What a job considering the position he was in – he had to stop a two-game losing streak against the very club that just let him go.  And he responded – with a very efficient two-hitter over 7 innings.

Now that’s pretty impressive.

One reader asked me if I thought the Pirates “bought” Dumatrait a win by allowing the Reds a two-game PR snow job since they had called Jay Bruce up.  He contended that the Pirates played on the lamb for two games because of the Bruce hype (it’s good for baseball, he said) and then they gave one back to the Pirates in Dumatrait’s start.  Afterall, he suggested, why was Duke moved back just one day?

I thought I was the only conspiracy theorist in Pirateland?  Maybe I’m breeding a whole new group?

I’ll admit the Reds approach toward Dumatrait wasn’t typical, and I’ll agree it looked like Harang was taking one for the team pitching up in the zone all game (about the only place we really mash).

But how do you explain Dreckman’s poor zone Wednesday night?  I mean, was he in on it too?  Or I wonder if the reader was suggesting there a new silent code among clubs that goes like this: anything that promotes the game in a significant manner will be allowed to foster? 

LoL – I wouldn’t be surprised the way everyone in the game is only after money any more.  And hey, if it is true, then we’ll know when McCutchen comes up.  Maybe we should get the calendar out and look for when we play the Reds this year to anticipate McCutchen’s arrival?  Let’s see, we play them a three-game set right after the roster’s expand – September 2cd. 

Hmm.  We’ll revist this when/if McCutchen is brought up to see if his point was valid.

But back to the game, Dumatrait had to make his pitches under tough conditions and he did just that.  Kudo to him… a W is a W is a W and, hey, the win kept us out of the cellar.  Good stuff there.

So it’s on to St. Louis where we see Duke and his 4.97 road ERA (and first career start at Busch) up against Wellemeyer and his 2.70 home ERA, Maholm and his 8.57 road ERA against rookie Mike Parasi who will be making his first MLB start (get out the memo, do we have to play the Bruce game again?), Snell with his 8.40 last three ERA againt Looper and his 7.63 last three ERA, and Gorzelanny with his 11.57 last three ERA against Wainwright and his sparkling 2.42 home ERA.

It’s no wonder Bullington was called up and Burnett kept around.  Looks like there’s going to be one heck of a lot of long relief opportunities the next four days, huh?  And if we’re really blessed, Gorzelanny will be shut down for at least one start and we can see Bullington take his slot.

My-oh-my… the fun we’re going to have.  But look at it this way, we have won 10 of the last 32 games in St. Louis (.312).  Ouch.

The road ahead is paved with lead balls tied to our Pirates ankles.  Blub, blub, blub.  Let’s see if we can at least split this series and prove everyone wrong.  If not, then we’ll see Dumatrait against the Astros Tuesday before Oswalt pitches Wednesday night. 

Talk about a pitcher being setup for some wins.

–

Joe Torre evidently told one of the Reds broadcasters that he feels it takes half a season for a new manager and field staff to get to know the players, and the players to get to know them, before they start to gel.

Half a season put us well into the trade deadline, huh?  Maybe we’ll see a whole new cast for Russell to learn to gel with by then?  I know I certainly can’t wait.

 

This man’s name is Bruce Dreckman and he’s a Major League Baseball umpire.  In fact, he called the plate Wednesday night when Tom Gorzelanny took the mound.  Bucco Blog called Dreckman out last September when Gorzelanny pitched against the Cubs because he was calling a floating zone (a strike in position “X” would be a ball the next time there).  Gorzelanny also called out Dreckman in that game with numerous bad looks showing him up.

The payback? 

Dreckman called 22% of Gorzelanny’s pitches balls that were in the zone Wednesday night, the highest amount I’ve ever recorded. 

Obviously Dreckman didn’t forget those looks last September. 

It’s a hard lesson to learn in this game – you don’t show the men in blue up because it will come back to haunt you.  Just ask Gorzelanny.

Now don’t think for one minute Dreckman was the entire problem, he wasn’t.  Gorzelanny’s first pitch of the game revealed body language that said ‘I really don’t want to be out here’.  His mechanics looked smooth enough but his release point was all over the place much like it has been all year. 

His arm is simply not healthy and he needs to be shut down, as I’ve said all year. 

Kudos to the Reds for piling on when they saw Gorzo down and out.  God knows we’ve done that to Arroyo enough times.

–

Jack Wilson’s “big picture” impact since rejoining the team?  The Bucs are 0-2, not that he’s had much of anything to do with the losses.

–

Keith Law of ESPN told me today:

“They’re [the Pirates] down to Posey, Tim Beckham, and Alvarez. I thought a week ago it would be Alvarez, and it might still be, but he was awful at the SEC tourney with a lot of Pirates heat there.”

Interesting.

After a long day of talking with some scouts, writers, and folks in the industry, I’ve narrowed down the top five on my board to:

Posey, Alvarez, Matusz, (Tim) Beckham, and Crow. 

I know two boards that have this order and many of those I’ve talked to seem to agree.  But the more important point is, not everyone sees it this way.  That’s important because it goes to show us there really isn’t much difference in the few at the top so the first few to pick can consider drafting for need.

I heard a week ago the Rays were locked and loaded on Alvarez and this week there has been numerous reports they have shifted to Posey or Beckham.  I’m not so sure.  Like Law said, Alvarez just didn’t put the exclamation mark on his performance in the SEC tourney while under the microscope and that seems to have a few people nervous around the game.  But his historical stats tell the real story – he’s not a one year cinderella guy, his power is for real. 

Without knowing the intentions of the Pirates front office on their five-year plan, it’s impossible to guess which way they will go.  We can guess all day long and still be wrong.  Unquestionably, the top three bats, or tools, are Alvarez, Posey, and Beckham and unquestionable the two best arms are Matusz and Crow. 

Matusz is a middle order starter guy that could end up being a tick better – or a tick worse – and his arm/shoulder has always worried me,  Beckham has some question marks around him as well, Alvarez’s late year let down has some scratching their heads, and everyone wonders if Posey is the real deal.  It’s simply not a cut and dried draft this year by any means – the talent all runs together.

I’ve stated numerous times Crow is the guy I’d take but after hearing a few more reports on him I’m even starting to question myself now.  That being said I’ll stick with Crow, even though it’s obvious he’s not going to be the top guy on anyone’s board in the #2 slot, just because I have this gut feeling about the guy like I did about Posey this last winter.  I guessed right on Posey and I think I’m guessing right on Crow. 

The way it will probably go down? Rays take Beckham or Alvarez, the Pirates take either Alvarez or Posey depending who drops (Matusz would be my third guess, not Beckham).

 

(Edit 10:30 AM Wednesday – here’s a video of the pitch I described below… it was on a 2-1 count not the 3-1 count I mentioned below)

–

Instead of talking about the game overall, I want to focus on Ian Snell a minute. 

Snell walked a career high seven batters.  On May 9th against the Braves he walked six, then a career high, two weeks before that he walked five on April 29th against the Mets, and the game before that he walked four against the Cards April 23rd.  From that Cardinals game forward, he’s started seven and has a 6.34 ERA with 26 walks and 24 strikeouts.  The first four games of the year he had a 4.07 ERA with 5 walks and 20 strikeouts.  

What’s the difference?

At first we all thought it was mechanical.  Snell told the Post-Gazette he was having a hard time repeating a new mechanical adjustment Andrews made on him that had him throwing from a new slot, one that is higher.  Weird thing about that though, his release point hasn’t changed.  Still, the Pirates tinkered with him removing his sinker from his repertoire (I assume to reduce his line drive rate) and it’s been all downhill since.

Then Snell revealed a week or so ago he had been bothered by a back problem two starts ago after he was taken apart by the Cardinals in his worst start since he was removed after 1.1 innings May 14, 2006, against the Marlins.

So is it mechanical, or is it a back problem?  Or is it both, or something else entirely?

Snell provided a hint in the 5th with the Pirates up 3-0.  After Corey Patterson was quickly retired, Snell threw a 3-1 pitch to Hairston and clearly grimaced after the pitch with his body language suggesting he was uncomfortable on the mound and having a back problem. 

Now the bizarre part about that grimace is this – the Pirates trainer, Brad Henderson, is hardly  incompetent and I’ve never seen him miss a grimace as obvious as Snell made.  So that tells me Henderson and the Pirates already knew about the problem and they were waiting for Snell to let them know he couldn’t continue.

But Snell never did. 

Instead, he walked the next three batters using an even more modified arm slot seemingly to reduce pressure on his back, gave up a sac fly for the second out, and then Dunn went yard on a 1-0 flat 91 mph fastball middle down putting the Reds up 4-3. 

Now, I won’t go into the John Russell/Ian Snell/Jeff Andrews/Ronny Paulino game management decision of letting the white hot Dunn (11 for his last 21 with 4 home runs) bat against Snell with a base open and Encarnacion on-deck (5 for his last 35 and pulling everything), because that would mean we didn’t learn a thing from the last two games Lou Piniella managed to lose under the exact same circumstances.  For the record, long-term matchups suggest Dunn was the better batter to have at the plate but that goes to show you how little value matchup reports are versus an advance scout’s eyes.

And you can’t help wondering how this game would have ended if Snell walked Dunn then got  Encarnacion, allowing Snell hit the dugout where Henderson could talk with him. 

I said I wouldn’t go into stuff like that or Russell bringing in Marte with the bases loaded and no outs the next inning when I just mentioned yesterday his WHIP last three was off the wall, so I won’t.  Let’s get back to Snell.

Now the question that begs to be answered is, is Ian Snell really hurting and really having mechanical problems, or is he just another pitcher being exploited from the increased availability and use of enhanced video scouting and those are his excuses coupled with a loss of confidence like in 2004/2005? 

I had also suggested earlier this year that giving Snell a big contract would be a mistake because we very well might end up with a three year Kris Benson and, so far, that’s exactly what we are seeing from him… excuses, excuses, excuses.

So is this a short-term glitch that we can expect to see Snell get over the hump with, or are all these excuses going to mount derailing the young man the rest of his time in Pittsburgh like has happened with a few others?

Obviously, we don’t know right now. 

I would guess the Pirates’ position is that the team was 6-4 when he took the mound before Tuesday’s game so if Snell feels comfortable enough on game day to pitch, why shut him down to rest him?  The obvious answer to that is, because he’s altered his mechanics to pitch through what he stated as discomfort and all that is going to lead to more problems and fatigue him quicker in games and in the year.  Plus, he’s an asset that could have gotten us a decent return over the winter that right now couldn’t fetch a can of corn.

We can’t lose both a top-to-middle order starter and trade value.  Wow, talk about a club taking a double-whammy.  We’re in a stretch where we play 20 games in 20 days and Snell would need to make three more starts before possibly getting skipped in the rotation from a day off the 16th.  The way he looks right now, Snell’s going to need to either be yanked at the 65 pitch mark against the Cardinals and Diamondbacks (his next two starts), take a shot in the back, or simply be shut down.

We could bring Bullington up and send Burnett down easily enough, but I doubt we’re going to see that happen.  Based on the historical trends of this organization, my bet is that Snell is run out there every five days and forced to pitch come hell or high water.  Unless he breaks or shuts himself down, that is.

The Pirates need to find the answer instead of letting this fester like they are with Gorzelanny and Maholm.

Tough loss.  The Pirates had a chance to put the game away early on but just couldn’t put together the clutch hits they needed to make it happen. 

Tommorow we see Ms. Arroyo who we own so maybe we can bounce back.  It could be we’re headed for another rough slump where we lose six or seven in a row and we’ll need someone to step up.  We’ll see.

–

Jay Bruce played a great first game.  Kudos to the young man.  His approach suggests he has some weakness but he certainly has some quick hands.

–

I mentioned the rift developing in the Cubs clubhouse about Soriano three days ago and now ownership has gotten the fans involved.

“TV analyst Bob Brenly should be applauded for his Steve Stone-like blitz, saying after the Pittsburgh blunder, “You could throw a dart at that (Cubs) dugout and find a better defender in left field.”

So now the Cubs are warning fans not to fire verbal zingers at Alfonso Soriano.  Seems they want $45 for a bleacher ticket, $6 for a beer and your right to free speech if the human blooper reel drops another fly ball.

But censor the fans? All in the name of babying a mercurial player with the most lucrative contract, by far, in Chicago sports history?

What is this, a suburban t-ball league?”  –  Chicago Sun Times

Un-frikin-believable.  This is far from over.

–

“We are continuing to tweak Bryan’s delivery,” Searage said. “With a fastball at 88 to 91 (mph), Bryan has less margin for error. He must continue to mix his off-speed pitches and keep the ball down in the strike zone. He’s done both of those things well over these past two starts.”  — Madison Courier on Bryan Bullington

By my count, that’s now 9 pitchers (including Morris) who have their mechanics being “tweaked” this year somewhere in our system.

Nine.  Think about that a minute.

–

“It was written in this space that the Pirates’ best transaction of the offseason was hiring Jeff Andrews to replace Jim Colborn…  [I]t is a shocker three of the rotation’s big four, excluding Duke, have taken a significant step backward under Andrews considering they worked with him and thrived under his tutelage in the Pirates’ farm system.”  John Perrotto, Beaver County Times.

LoL

–

Kudos to Bixler for a job well done having been thrown into the wolves den before his time.  Good job dude.

–

Below is the projected end of year stats for all the players using STATS, Inc’s, projection system which used all games through May 26th.  I would bet Duke won’t end the year with a 4.32 ERA, or Dumatriat with a 4.20 after more film circulates on him.  Just a wild guess.

 

Ah, what a series this will be with the loser probably solidifying 5th place while the Brewers get mauled by the Braves, and the winner might be able to pick up a couple of games on the Astros who are going to have their hands full with the Cardinals.

Vegas sees us getting our butt whipped this series and they very well could be right, but like I told you in yesterday’s post, we’re getting the job done weird ways lately.  Really weird ways.

Snell generally has his way with the Reds at Great American and the Pirates generally have their way with the Reds.  But Great American is the kind of place where weird things can get a whole lot weirder real fast.  Throw in the fact the Reds are 7-0 last seven at home and have only lost six games their last 28 where they were the favorite to win at home and, well, you can see why Vegas might like the Reds.

And let’s not forget that we were quickly headed into a major crash and burn streak that was averted by bad managing by Piniella and *cough* Luis Rivas home runs.  With Jack Wilson returning to the diamond, will he provide the next spark to avoid yet another crash and burn streak? 

Lots and lots of questions and few answers.

I think Cueto is going to get his number rung and Snell is going to flash dance a 10 strike out night and if you take Pittsburgh, you very well might be walking home with a few extra bucks in your pocket.  But watch the over/under because the Pirates could take Cueto out for 6 runs in one inning, or we could get no-hit just as fast.  And the same could be true about Snell – he could strike out 10 but give up three walks and four yard balls.

Who the heck knows what’s in store.  Still like I said, I like our chances in game 1.

–

It looks like we are about to witness what happens when a 21 year old (Reds first rounder in 2005 draft) gets a callup to play centerfield.  Shades of the fans wish for McCutchen, huh?

Jay Bruce could start for them Tuesday.  Should be interesting as he is an absolute monster with the bat.

–

Sean Burnett’s WHIP last three: 2.80, and he’s still on the roster.  My God.  Like, are we to believe he’ll pitch at Great American?  LoL

Hey, don’t laugh Tyler.  Your WHIP is a digusting 1.63, and Marte’s is a 1.67 last three outings. 

Gee, I hope our starters all throw 9 innings.  I think our pen hopes that too as good as the Reds mash at home.

Ouch.

–

Oh boy, Jack Wilson is finally coming back to play baseball.  Whoopie.  Now if he can pick up where he left off last year…

Hey, how many fans are going to be upset if they see him in the #2 hole?  LoL

 

Just what the hell is going on? 

– Rivas goes yard, not once, but two times?  Do What?  To top that off, one of them (the first) didn’t even make it over the right centerfield wall – it hit the pad on top of the wall but it was still called a home run.

– Adam LaRoche, certainly one of the slowest men in the game, hit a line drive to right and took second on Fukudome’s great arm but, easily out at second, Theriot dropped the relay?  That set up…

– Bautista, a negative 1/2 win guy in high leverage situations, hit a grounder that bounced six inches above Ted Lilly’s glove trying to grab it and the ball went into short-to-medium centerfield to Reed Johnson who fielded it.  Low and behold, around third came Adam LaRoche six feet out of the baseline chugging like a steam roller trying to catch his breath and Johnson uncorked a perfect one-hop throw in time to easily nail LaRoche at the plate.  But Blanco didn’t handle the ball and LaRoche scored the tying run.  Best I can tell, that’s the first time LaRoche went second to home on a ground ball to short-medium centerfield this year.  Or last year.  In fact, I can’t find where he’s ever done it.  Puh-lease.

– Sanchez walked in the ninth with the Pirates down a run and Bixler ran for him.  Say what? 

– Two outs in the 9th, Bixler at first, and McLouth hit a lazy fly ball to Soriano to end the game but Soriano lost it in the sun and Bixler scored tying the game.  I bet you’ll see that everyday…  come-on.

– 11th inning, game tied, Jon Lieber on the mound, and thirty-six year old Chris Gomez starts it off with an infield single to short just off the bag, Bixler sacrificed him to second, Rivas struckout for the second out, and the Cubs intentionally walked McLouth to get to Jason Bay.  That’s right, intentionally walked McLouth to get to Bay who was 7-13 in the series and already had one walk-off hit the night before when McLouth was also intentionally walked in front of him.  So with a base open, Bay lined one into left and Gomez scored giving Bay back-to-back walkoff hit games.  

Funny thing, McLouth was a 1.196 OPS hitter against Lieber (4-7) and Bay a 1.375 OPS matchup (5-8).  In the on-deck circle?  Xavier Nady, a .500 OPS guy vs Lieber (1-6 with a 33% strikeout rate).  Hellllllloooooooooooo…. anyone home?

– Paul Maholm, who took the mound to face the club he had the highest career ERA against (more than 30 innings, 6.27 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP, but 4-0 in those contests – talk about big time run support needed, wow) threw a career high 121 pitches over 8 frames against a roster that had six guys who had seen him before and were hitting .313 BA with a .912 OPS in 64 at bats.  Puhhhhhh leeeeeeese.

And this kind of weird stuff is happening nearly every other game lately. 

I mean, last year when this team was down four runs by the third they simply folded.  Period.  End of story.  Once in twenty games you might see them rally but it was a rare feat indeed.  That’s not happening this year.  Well, let’s say this – it’s not happening as much. 

It truly has been a pleasant surprise to the fans.

But it’s one that they should be expecting too.  In 2007 we won two of three series against the Cubs in Pittsburgh.  In 2006 we took 1 of two and swept them the one we did win.  So it wasn’t so surprising that we took this series.  In fact, we’re still two wins short of our expected winning percentage ending May with five games to go (the April 28th game against the Mets was rescheduled).

It’s the way we’re getting it done that’s so bizarre.  Think Twins in 2008 – giving up the farm but still winning games.

–

Don’t dismiss lightly what you heard here last night about some of the Cubs players being a bit upset over Lou’s remarks in the newspapers.  It very well might carry over for quite some time.  I’m not going to suggest Soriano, who was the subject of Piniella’s remarks, intentionally dropped McLouth’s fly ball in the 9th because I don’t believe he did it intentionally.  But Soriano has his head full of BS from his manager right now and it’s very possible that contributed to his lack of focus on the play.

Now the question that begs to be answered is, will the Cubs fold in the division with the obvious rift they have developing in the clubhouse?  If so, how far will they fall before they pick it back up and, what opportunity will that provide to the other teams in the division not named Pittsburgh especially since they play a devastating June schedule?

It’s going to be interesting to see.

–

A reader asked yesterday, “Do you have any more info on Posey, Beckham, or Crow, aside from what mlb.com and BA have written?”

Having watched Posey and talked to numerous scouts about him I can tell you this: he doesn’t have Mauer’s power but he’ll be a solid line-to-line .280 major league hitter (.750 OPS’ish) and eventually knock 15 out per year.  I think he’ll be a tick above average catcher receiving and blocking, he’ll be plus-plus holding the running game in check, stay athletic allowing a move down the road to short or center if really needed, and he’ll be a plus guy in the clubhouse.

To me, Posey would represent an overdraft at #2.  He’s had a cinderella year and done a remarkable job but I’m not buying it, if that makes any sense to anyone.

Tim Beckham is another Andrew McCutchen without Cutch’s raw speed.  Five solid tools with quick hands, a short compact stroke, good pitch recognition for his age and level, some power potential albeit not as much as Cutch, and a plus-plus makeup guy.  He’s everything you’d want in a starting shortstop five to six years from draft day.

His tools are impressive but I think there has to be concerns about where he eventually lands, although nobody is questioning this – everyone sees him staying at short, and I’ve heard a few tidbits about other concerns I won’t go into here because they might be incorrect, although I’ve heard them from more than one person.  If he doesn’t stay at short, where would he eventually play?  Center? Second?

I don’t expect he’ll be taken #2 for numerous reasons but most importantly because the Pirates can’t wait out five to six years of development he’ll need.  Besides, there are some toolsy college shortstops in this draft we can overdraft in a later round if that’s what we really want to do (UCLA’s Brandon Crawford is one such example under the radar).  The only reason I think we would jump on Beckham is if the front office is playing the “we’re going to kiss Nutting ass and save him millions” game.

Aaron Crow has rough mechanics which some clubs are going to run from, despite good command of his 96 – 98 heater.  However, he lacks command of his secondary pitches and that also has some clubs biting their nails but, if nothing else, he ends up being another two-pitch (fastball/slider) Ian Snell. Still, the Pirates will probably be one of those running.  But I think the issues with the way he loads up and the way he plants are overblown and I think he’s going to be a lot better pitcher than most think he is.  But that’s a risk and the Pirates aren’t going to be in risk taking mode, so I don’t expect him to go #2 either.  But I still do unless I’m missing something.

Brian Matusz is being called the safest of the safest in picks, but I’m not so sure about that.  His mechanics and shoulder leave me worrying more than Crow’s problems that can be minimized.  He has a Mark Corey curveball with a live Gorzelanny type fastball and also throws a tick better than average changeup and now an average slider. Mautsz is ”the safer” #2 pick in this draft if Alvarez doesn’t fall but will the Pirates actually take him?  Doubtful.

Kyle Skipworth is a left hand hitting high school catcher who is being compared to Joe Mauer.  I just got done watching 45 minutes of film on him and he surprised me with his maturity and ability at the position considering his age.  His power package is what has some scouts drooling and the fact he projects to remain at least an average catcher.  Will he eventually fill out and play third? If so, he’s a huge overdraft in the first 10 picks of the draft. If scouts think he remains at least an average defensive catcher, which I’m hearing they do, then he’s a solid top ten draft pick.  He’d be an overdraft at #2 but if the Pirates wanted to rebuild the six year way, he’d be an excellent one to start with.

Smoak, Hosmer, Gorden Beckham, and Gerrit Cole are all overdrafts with Cole probably being the better pick of the group, albeit Beckham is an exciting player too.

The draft really comes down to one player for us – Alvarez.  If he’s there, we take him. If he’s not, then let the guessing games begin.

 

 

A reader asked a question yesterday I thought I’d take a few minutes to try and answer while the game drags out now in the 14th inning.

“What’s happened to Paul Maholm in May?” — Lee H, Pittsburgh

Great question.

If I had to guess, I would say he’s become the victim the release of Matt Morris.  Here’s why I think that…

In his first five games, Paul Maholm had a 3.26 ERA and in his last four games starting May 3rd he has a 7.33 ERA.  Matt Morris started before Maholm his first five games and Phil Dumatrait has started before him the last four games, albeit Maholm pitched in the same series just three of the four games (7.94 ERA in those three games) with his last start against the Brewers being that exception.

Now remember, Maholm had allowed just two earned runs against the Brewers starting the 7th and then walked off the mound after giving up a one out home run to Cameron on his 111th pitch of the game – career fifth highest number of pitches thrown by him and the most since August 29th, 2006.  Considering Maholm had hit two of the last four batters he faced, some think John Russell’s long hook was more a problem than Maholm was.  However after Maholm left he was replaced with Burnett who allowed the game to get out of reach.

Then here is a breakdown of the average speed of the four main pitches thrown by both Dumatrait and Maholm as the pitch crosses home plate using PITCHf/x data (Duke is added as a reference since he throws before Dumatrait):

As you can see, there isn’t much difference between any of them.

Now here are 200 random release points of all three pitchers represented in feet:

What you see is a general three inch vertical difference in release points between Dumatrait and Maholm and a six inch difference on the horizontal plane.  But look at the difference between Dumatrait and Duke – twenty inches on the horizonal plane although about two inches on the vertical.  Plus Duke has a slingshot (throws across his body more) type of delivery where Maholm and Dumatrait’s mechanics are a bit straighter.

So in essence, when Maholm pitches in the same series as Dumatrait it’s only reasonable to expect batters to pick up his release point quicker and see more damage done.  When you watch the Cubs game Sunday afternoon, see if you don’t get a feeling for what I’m showing you… especially it being a day game after a night game (quicker to the field).

–

Bay finally won the game with a walk off single into the left center field gap with Sanchez at third in the 14th.  Yeah!

We just have to hope Grabow and Capps still have their arms attached a week from now.

And what the hell was that strike three pitch thrown by Osoria?  A… a… a fastball?  Bad to the bone. Again, it was nice to see the veteran Chavez behind the dish.  Home plate ump Wally Bell typically makes batters put pitcher’s pitches into play anyway (generally a large strike zone) resulting in lower scoring games, but still, watching Chavez handle Dumatrait and take charge on the field is something the Pirates have sorely missed the last bazillion years.

With the Pirates up 3-1 going into the 8th, John Russell went to Tyler Yates for some unexplainable reason and he promptly blew the game open allowing the Cubs three runs on three hits and a walk.  Now what is so surprising about Russell’s move to me is that, despite his good numbers the last two outings against the Cubs, he was running on pure luck fumes in those games (xERA over 6 and line drive rate over 21% the last month) fueled from a ridiculously lucky 100% strand rate over that period. 

Still Russell trusted him and it backfired. 

Overall it was a good game despite the fact we fielded a starting lineup hitting just .255. Jason Michaels had one of his rare good games against a right hand pitcher and even made a nice catch in the game, Jason Bay has officially gone into one of his happy-go-lucky hot streaks, and Rivas came through with a clutch sac fly to tie the game in the 9th. 

But don’t get too excited.  One Cubs fan emailed me and said the players were a bit upset over some comments Sweet Lou made to the local Chicago papers after Friday nights game and they might not show up 100%.  He was right… they didn’t. 

Makes you wonder if the Pirates knew about it too.

–

The Rays have evidently settled on Pedro Alvarez as their #1 pick, a friend of mine in St. Petersburg around the team said tonight.  He’s been right each year the last four, albeit a couple of them were no brainers. 

So if Alvarez is indeed gone, the Pirates have to be sitting back wondering a few questions:

– is Posey the real deal? And, will they take on the PR hit for missing Weiters last year by selecting Posey?

– go young with Tim Beckham and his tools?

– stay mainstream and draft the best arm they believe in Crow or Mautsz?

Tough, tough decision this year but, as I suggested before, I believe it’s going to come down to the Pirates five-year plan which I don’t believe is going to include the word rebuilding in it.  Therefore, I’ll stay with my initial pick and continue to go with Crow despite his critics.