The Pirates simply don’t matchup to AL teams and we won’t until somebody starts spending some money to hire quality men to play the game, good evaluators to find the needles in the haystack, and good development teams to turn marginal players with upside into ML baseball players.  But that’s another post one day.

Another interleague game, another loss.  Today it was an Xavier Nady throwing error that led to two runs but it really didn’t matter – if it hadn’t been Nady, it probably would have been some guy named Burnett, or Wilson, or JvB, or any number of other players we have sitting around. 

That’s baseball as we know it in Pittsburgh. 

Still, it was nice watching Gorzelanny have a nice day even though Ed Rapuano most have been smoking what Joe West smoked last night.  What.  A.  Zone.  Wow.  Rapuano has never called a great game I’ve seen but he’s consistent with his bad calls making him somewhat more bearable.  But Sunday he must have had a tea party to get too. 

So Gorzy got some calls, Sonnastine got a few as well, and each team looked even flatter than they looked Saturday night, if you can believe that is possible.  Man, are we dragging or what?

And the Rays won yet another close one this year. What’s that now, 5 of their last 12 games have been won by two runs or less?  Talk about some luck going your way.  And speaking of luck, did we really let Troy Percival get away with murder in the 9th or what?  Nady walked, LaRoche flied out, then Bautista and Chavez struck out.  Did you see Percival throwing?  He couldn’t find the plate.  Everytime he put weight on his plant foot it looked like he was pushing his weight down on needles or something.  He had to be injured.

Well, don’t blame Nady.  He was in front of a large contingent of scouts and had a chance to ring up Pena at third base and got too excited knowing he had him by a country mile.  And funny thing about the last two games – balls in play were smoked but right at someone time and time again.  How so many got gloved on both sides is beyond me – it was a really weird series.

–

McLouth looked to pull up running out a grounder.  He was replaced by Michaels. 

Speaking of Nate the Great, I say bring up McCutchen July 7th before he heads to New York.  The kid deserves it and McLouth needs his panic button pushed again since watching Duffy getting healthy and hitting at a .929 OPS clip isn’t doing it. 

If Cutch’s wrists can keep him hitting the ball up here, let him stay and see if Long can take him to the next level.  Besides, we all know Nady is one-step out the door at the deadline and Cutch should be his replacement – not Michaels or McLouth.  And if we send him down 31 consecutive days next year, it would be the same as starting his clock in 2009.

Since we’re not officially rebuilding, it’s Cutch time.  Let’s get this thing moving forward.

–

I meant to mention something in Saturday nights game I was surprised to see – Taubenheim was routinely shaking off Doumit and often throwing away from his mitt.  That was VERY refreshing to see the young man take that kind of responsibility, and it proved to be correct almost all the time. 

Very nice… very nice. 

Doumit has one mentality behind the plate – pitch low and away or high and inside.  Period.  Well, that’s not always smart to do and Taubenheim obviously had taken the time to review film and make some mental notes because he stayed away from their bats.  Gorzy must have noticed it too because he followed Ty’s game plan some Sunday, I saw.

Tip of the hat to Ty.  Or I wonder if it was something entirely different?  I just wonder if Chavez took apart the Rays batters Friday night and put together a game plan for Ty?  I wouldn’t doubt it - he’s damn good a reading swing mechanics.

–

I’m hearing an AL team might/may have expressed in interest in Jack Wilson.  Now don’t get too excited because as you already know there isn’t exactly a replacement around the corner for Jack.  But get this, there is a chance Huntington might get/has already gotten a call from another AL team that has an exciting young shortstop they might deal that, I hear, might be interested in one of our relievers. 

It’s still early, but talk is starting to circulate even if it’s mostly BS right now.  And, no, I don’t know if the AL team potentially interested in Wilson is on his no-trade.  If they are, I suspect he would not waive it for them.

–

Bob Smizik continues to be on drugs:

“Three months ago, on the eve of the 2008 MLB season, there was only one franchise with a more wretched recent past and a more hopeless immediate future than the Pirates, and that team was…”

Right… the 2008 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Not the Rays.

The Rays might have lost a lot more games in a significantly harder division, but they certainly didn’t have a “hopeless immediate future.”

“But thanks to what Friedman and his staff in Tampa Bay, the Pirates have a road map to follow and the knowledge that it can be done.”

Huh?  What did he say?

“Tampa Bay has shown it can be done. It won’t be easy, it will be hard. It will take time, money and — most of all — shrewd baseball judgment.”

Time… money… shrewd baseball judgement.  Well, since Robert Nutting drives this ship, I guess we’re still screwed, at least according to Smizik’s own words.  Amazingly, Smizik unknowingly answered his own question with a question:

“All of which leads to this obvious question: If Tampa Bay can get up off the bottom of a division ruled by the Red Sox and Yankees, why can’t the Pirates, playing lesser competition, do the same?”

N
U
T
T
I
N
G

That’s why.

 

Despite the difference in runs and hits allowed, Ty Taubenheim didn’t show me what Jimmy Barthmaier did Friday night, but he did pitch one hell of a game Saturday night under rough conditions.

In a steady rain most of the night, Ty tossed six quality innings allowing just seven hits and two earned runs.  Featuring an average fastball with occaisional plus sink, he had a hard time commanding his secondary pitches but that didn’t seem to matter since Rays batters obviously didn’t pick the ball up out of his hand and were either swinging wildly, or not at all.

Part of the Rays problem was manager Joe Maddon – he played the rally killer several times they had Taubenheim on the ropes. 

For instance, when Bartlett opened the 5th with a double, Maddon had pitcher Edwin Jackson hit away instead of putting down a sacrifice bunt.  As it played out, all things being equal, Bartlett wouldn’t have scored anyway, but you have to believe Crawford and Longoria might have approached their at bats differently rather than making two outs on a total of three pitches had there been a man at third.

And in the sixth, Hinske opened with a double to left and Pena flied out to right allowing Hinske to reach third.  Navarro, easily one of the slowest runners on the Rays, then lined a single into center to score Hinske tying the game. 

Then in a very bizarre move, with one out and Taubenheim laboring to throw strikes, Maddon sent Navarro on what seemed to be a straight steal and he was nailed by 15 feet.  As you might expect, Aybar then singled, Bartlett singled, and with men at first and third now, Maddon let Jackson hit for himself who promptly ground out.

Probably even more bizarre was Maddon’s decision in the 7th – with two outs and first base open and  LaRoche at second, he let Jackson pitch to Minty with McLouth and his oh-for-the-last-ton-of-games production on deck and Minty burned him with a clutch single giving us our third run.

So it wasn’t like Taubenheim did it all on his own on the mound… he had a bit of help.  Thank you Mr. Maddon.  And let’s not forget home plate ump Joe West’s huge strike zone, not to mention his old-school mentality as the game got deeper and deeper.  If the ball was close and you didn’t swing the bat, you were rung up.  C-ya. That helped Beam big time.

But one thing not to be forgotten was Taubenheim’s rbi double in the 5th that put the Bucs up a run.  Wow… he crushed high heat with unbelievable bat speed, although sitting dead red.  Very nice, very nice.

The Pirates looked as pitiful against Jackson as the Rays did against Taubenheim.  Jackson had won just two of his last 13 starts, had a 6.17 ERA in June, sports a mid-5′s xERA for the year, and batter-after-batter choked at the plate.  Maybe the two teams partied together after the game last night?  Very strange these two pitchers weren’t both hammered. 

As if that wasn’t strange enough, TJ Beam then came out of the pen and threw two scoreless.  Hellloooooo…

Very strange.  But that’s the game of baseball for you.

The night after I hammered McLouth’s cover ability, he made a nice play in the 12th running down Bartlett’s fly ball in the notch.  As I said, strange game.  LoL

So it’s the bottom of the 12th and I’m sitting here waiting for the game to be won by some strange act.  Maybe Duke will hit for someone and put one over the fence?

Oh Lord – here’s JvB… in the 13th, no less.  But the way this game’s going, he’ll throw a scoreless inning too.  Yep, he sure did.

Oh my – now Bay avoids a golden sombrero award with a walk off home run as he jumps into a mob at home plate waiting for him.  Fab-u-lous stuff.

Thank you again, Mr. Maddon.

–

Anybody else wondering why Huntington dealt for Bautista when he had Taubenheim available?  It’s pretty obvious with a little work keeping him down in the zone, Taubenheim could easily be a middle reliever.  He may not throw enough strikes but he’s got enough deception in his delivery to keep most batters guessing.

–

Someone mentioned an early media report Saturday suggesting that Bautista was put on the DL and then later in the day it was retracted.  I don’t know – I didn’t see it.  Later it was mentioned he is listed day-to-day.  I would guess week-to-week or month-to-month might be a more appropriate way to say it.

I did see where Morgan was optioned back to Indy, Osoria put on the DL, and half of Indy’s staff called up.  LoL

–

Can’t hit Edwin Jackson…  oh my, what a night.

 

Lots to talk about, so let’s get to it.

Hat tip to Jimmy Barthmaier.  The young man showed good composure on the mound despite not having quality stuff or being able to consistently command his pitches – much less even being ready for the big show.  No question making his MLB debut on a short-leash had a lot to do with that.

Still, the kid looks like a keeper.  He wasn’t fooling anyone Friday night but a lot of the squaring up on his pitches had to do with poor location.  After I noticed him continually throwing into batters power zones, I took a quick look at the Hinske home run pitch in the third which I felt put the game out of reach.  Here’s what I found:

The red outlined dots represent Hinke’s extra base hits this year, the remaining blue dots show his singles.  The red “X” shows where Barthmaier threw his pitch, the green “X” is where Doumit wanted the pitch, and the red square box is Hinske’s strike zone. The view above is from the catcher’s eyes looking toward the pitcher and Hinske is a left hand batter, so he would be standing on the right.

So tell me, if you are pitching where would you throw the ball?  Sure, his weak spots are inside at the knees and absolutely up and in.

So why was Doumit setup low and away where he could extend? 

I can show you batter-after-batter like this Barthmaier was asked to throw into the Rays power zones.  Why?  I haven’t a clue.  But you would think Barthmaier didn’t have much time to review a whole lot of film, much less know what to look for considering he doesn’t do that in 3A.  So he had to rely on Andrews game plan and Doumit’s execution of it.

Obviously both were flawed.

Now don’t get me wrong – I stated earlier Barthmaier’s stuff wasn’t exactly strong and his command far from perfect.  But when any pitcher is asked to consistently throw into good hitter’s power zones, he’s going to get hammered, and Barthmaier was. 

Poor game management design by Andrews?  Poor or no advance scouting?  Poor pitch location reports from the Pirates stats agency?  And why no Chavez since he caught him in the spring?  Lots of questions there, as well as why we continued to pitch to Longoria knowing he came in white hot (.421/.450/1.105 last 20 AB). 

Hello advance scouting…??

–

I thought Iwamura’s suspension was upheld?  What was he doing dressed out?

–

Memo to Neal Huntington: fine Jack Wilson for his third inning bunt.  OMG, what the heck was that after Gomez walked and the pitcher on deck?  He can be such a selfish player at times.

That was about as bad as Sanchez coming to bat in the first inning swinging at the first pitch against Kazmir when the players had to have been told he had command problems the last three games which he didn’t receive decisions in (walked 9 last 17 innings of work).  It was like Sanchez came to the plate saying “we give up.”  Thank gosh not everyone felt that way.

–

Nate who?  His offensive output last 12 games: 11-52 for a .212 BA with one walk.  Boy, not going to score many runs with that kind of leadoff machine.  He’s hitting just .234/.299/.391 in July. 

But what’s more concerning about McLouth is that his defense has tanked like a lead ball.  No longer is he getting good jumps on his routes, no longer is he running good routes to the ball, and no longer is he playing back like I mentioned he started to do toward the end of May. 

I have McLouth -17 runs alone in center and I’m typically very liberal the player’s way, so he could easily be -25 or even more.  He’s absolutely killing us not covering the ball. Now that he’s into one of his typically very long slumps, we need to think twice about sending him out there every day.

The question is, who plays center? 

* Jake looks at the roster… looks at 3A and wishes we weren’t on a rebuilding path so we could see Cutch… looks at 2A and wishes Duffy had come along faster… * 

Looks like McLouth HAS to play, unless we just want to hand games away with Morgan or Michaels playing center.  Ughh…

–

Snell on the DL as I told you he would.  Now that he’s come out in the media telling everyone he’s had pain for weeks and was pitching through it, don’t look for him to be back anytime soon. 

* flush * 

There goes more value down the drain.

–

Someone better be taking a close look at Grabow’s arm too because, from where I’m sitting, he looks like he’s about ready to go down too.

* flush *

–

Bautista lasted, what, 12 pitches as a Pirate?  I gave him to August 15th before he’d hit the DL.  Looks like I might have got that one right a lot earlier than I even thought.  Since he didn’t lay on the ground and cry like a baby, he only shook his head no about staying in the game, you have to think he’ll be day-to-day and forced by Pirate management to get back out there in the pen.

But will he do it?  Not a good a signing as I said.

* flush *

–

Talking about signings, the Padres signed Tomko and it had been rumored that a few teams were after him including the Pirates.  I think we were fairly aggressive in trying but he’s a West Coast guy.

–

The A’s released Kiko Calero.  Obviously this man’s medicals must be a lot worse than I heard they were.  Too bad… too bad.  Unless there is another reason like makeup problems, how do you not try to sign him on a minor league deal?

–

Here’s each team’s ERA against us so far this year.  We’re currently +2 wins from where we should be this year but looking at the table below you have to wonder why we’re not -4 wins. 

–

Interesting question from chris in last night’s no post here:

“Jake i have been trying to pay attention to the gcl pirates and this kid Miguel Mendez is off to a very quick start he is a catcher and only played in 4 games but in those four games he is batting .632 with 3 home runs and 8 rbis and this kid has 12 hits in 19 at bats. He is only 20 years old so maybe somone to keep an eye on.”

Twenty and in the GCL.  I believe this is the guy that had surgery that cost him part of 2006 and 2007.  I might be wrong, but I think that’s what I remember.  If this is the guy I remember, he has little to no projection behind the dish so don’t get too excited.

–

I keep getting emails about the Braves maybe having an interest in Bay.  In fact, half the contenders are now said to be looking at Bay. 

Right. 

Just remember this – Shapiro and Huntington played a market game earlier this year by “establishing value” for Bay in a Cliff Lee package.  The deal was said to have been shut down by Coonelly but a few folks I spoke to said they didn’t think the deal ever got off the drawing board.

So until some team decides to empty their prospect locker for a nine month Jason Bay rental, don’t count on that happening, especially if Coonelly can’t get Bay to add a few more years to his contract at a hometown discount asap.  The Pirates will want too much for him and everyone knows that.

That leaves Nady but he’s playing lame again.

* more flushing heard *

–

Better wear your batting helmets to the park Saturday.  There will be lots of incoming. 

–

I suppose many of you are now starting to understand why I said releasing Morris was a huge mistake?

–

Ron Cook at the Post-Gazette said the Pirates needed to rebuild around Doumit.  Just what we need, rebuild around a tire that goes flat every 100 miles.

–

And someone please tell me why LaRoche was on the pine just because Gomez had a good record against Kazmir? 

* toilet is stuck wide open flushing now *

 

 

I’m traveling back home so since there is a rain delay, now a ridiculous two hours,  I’ll just post tomorrow after I get back.  I assumed if the game is restarted, we’ll get our first glimpse of Bautista.

We knew Joba was going to be tough, and he was.  He seemed to be very hittable on video but we just didn’t get much done with him.  Well, outside Doumit and Wilson, that is.

The biggest story of the day to me was Zach Duke, who gave up just three earned runs in 5 frames.  And if you watched the game, you know at least one more of those might have been prevented had Wilson charged Abreu’s first inning groundball that went for an infield hit.  And to be real honest, if we had a true centerfielder, at least one of Jeter’s flyballs over McLouth’s head would have been an out and they might have scored just one run.

I mean, is that weak or what?  If I’m Captain Jeter, I tell the other gyrls in the clubhouse to go bury their head in the sand for such a poor showing against Duke. 

–

TJ Beam.  I mentioned June 16th the Pirates needed to consider bringing him up because of the work he had done in Indy. I also mentioned that I hadn’t seen him pitch.  Well, I’ve seen him pitch now and, even though the sample size is ridiculously small, I’ve seen enough.  His fastball is straighter than Matt Capps and lacks deception to boot.  Now I don’t doubt Jeff Andrews might be able to get a little more cut/tail/sink on this kid’s heater, but he’ll never fool anyone with his arm slot so he’s taking up space on the roster to me. 

But I do think his ceiling is higher than Sean Burnett’s, for whatever that’s worth.

And I think this also goes to show us all how ridiculous small sample MLE’s (major league equivalent stats) are in the farm anymore.  When there was a lot of talent in the International League you could reasonably count on MLE’s, but now that the shelf is bare, MLE’s are generally worthless.  Maybe we need to consider getting back in the PCL?  Hello Nashville… when are you building that stadium???

–

Denny Bautista.  This cat has a live arm that GM’s love to drool over.  Unfortunately, he’s let all five GM’s down over the years. 

I can see Huntington’s desire to pick up some bullpen help but let’s be serious here, why Denny Bautista?  And why trade for him since he was DFA’d?  I mean, trading a 23 year old live arm in Kyle Pearson who can’t find the plate for a 27 year old live arm who can’t find the plate just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.  If we need to focus on someone throwing strikes, why not stick with youth?  I’m sure MLB would give the Pirates a year or two more of control since he was hurt – so why give up on the kid?

And did we put a claim in on Kiki Calero, potential surgery need or not? 

Well back to Bautista.  When he throws strikes, he’s been getting outs.  But here’s something about Bautista you won’t read in the local media tonight.  You see, on May 2cd the Tigers hung Bautista out to lunch.  He threw a 35 pitch inning and still couldn’t get out of his mess so they took him out. 

The next day he was put on the DL with right shoulder tendinitis.

From March 31st to May 2cd, Bautista was throwing some major heat – he touched 99 mph once, 98 nine times, and had thrown 42% of nearly 250 pitches 94 mph or or higher.

Since May 2cd he’s thrown just 4 of 96 pitches (4%) 94 or higher.  How do you spell “that’s two huge red flags Neal baby”? 

Now I’ll agree that the reduction of speed on his fastball since that 35 pitch outing has put him in the zone more, and I’ll also agree that his hit rate allowed in that smaller sample has been very good (something the Pirates probably keyed in on), but the two teams that he’s pitched against since then (Indians and Dodgers) were sitting on his offspeed stuff and not his fastball I assume because they were easier to see.

Considering Bautista’s success has pretty much come when he worked as a late inning setup type guy, and now Huntington plans to use him in middle relief, throw in the 35 pitch inning and now just coming off the DL with a long history of health and makeup problems, I just don’t get this signing at all.

I think Eddie Epstein must have been out to dinner when Neal called on this deal.

Two thumbs down.  Oh, he’ll have some good outings here and there, but overall…

Pearson wasn’t exactly an ace in hiding, but he’s only three years removed from arm problems and really hasn’t had the benefit of working with a development team that had a care or concern.  Throw in the fact he’s shown a propensity to be a reverse-righty (get right hand batters out), has a live arm, and still only 23, it seems to me if we were going to spend time developing it would be with kids like him, not trying to nurse Denny Bautista to throw strikes.

This is sort of like the Tyler Yates deal.  We sent youth out the door in Todd Redmond (now 7-2 in 2A in the Southern League with the Braves) for Tyler Yates who can’t get a batter out away from PNC and walks more than he strikes out.  Ok, some fans said Redmond was another Josh Fogg.  But we’d be so lucky, considering Fogg was the last starter that had back-to-back winning seasons in Pittsburgh.

Evidently Huntington must think there is a window of opportunity developing in the next three years the way he’s throwing away youth for broken down saddle horses.  Damn if I see it.

*  Jake scratches his head  *

I’ll make everyone a bet that Bautista hits the DL before August 15th, if he’s even with us that long.  Just a wild guess.

–

Shawn Chacon?  Puh-lease.

–

A couple of questions floating through the comment sections:

“Jake, you’ve been crying for this team to shut down Gorzo for over a year now. 2/5’s of their starting rotation is injured at this point. Who exactly are they going to run out there if Gorzo is shut down, too? …

What do you suggest this team does?”

Lose 70 of the next 90 games and get the #1 pick in the draft next year instead of pretending to be something we’re not year-after-year-after-year-after-year.

“It doesn’t seem to me that Gorzy is hurt. He’s just all over the place…”

Fatigued arms do that to you. 

“right now Steve Pearce is as hot as a pistol in his last 10 games he his batting .316 with 4 home runs and 10 rbis.”

Yeah, I mentioned that we would probably see Pearce take off once he saw Morgan get called up.  Sure enough, look at him go.  But the pitching in that league is pretty thin right now too.  See above about MLE’s.

“How about that pitcher for Fresno State tonight, Justin [Wilson]. The big lefty pitched a hell of a game. Didn’t the buccos draft him? Were we able to sign him yet? Now this is the first time I have seen him play, but based on that performance against Georgia who has a great team, I could definitely see this kid in the rotation a couple years down the road, your thoughts Jake?”

He pitched one hell of a game against a very, very good hitting club.  Agreed. 

All we can do is pray the multiple high pitch counts this season don’t take him out like Scheppers (123 on 4/11; 130 on 5/9; 127 on 6/25… insert Brad Lincoln’s resume here too).  Oh, and he stays off the Milky Way bars and learns how to condition his body, learns how to throw more strikes (see Redmond, Yates, Bautista, and Pearson, for examples), and develops a plus third pitch, sure – I think he might end up in the rotation one day.

But I’m not counting on it with his stuff and our current development staff.  Instead, I bet we see him sent out the door to a large market club in 2012 for a relief pitcher who throws 96 with straight heat but can’t find the strike zone. 

Well maybe not, Huntington will probably be long gone by then.

 

Sorry. 

I couldn’t help myself.

–

What an absolute butt whipping the Yankees took.  It started with a few small hits then our longball mentality took over that I told you last night we needed to employ.

And how Gorzelanny ever got out of the jams he did, I’ll never know.  For the record here, opening the fifth inning he had thrown 76 pitches, just 33 for strikes, had walked five batters, and allowed four hits and one earned run.  Oh, and stranded no less than a man at third with less than two outs in the previous two innings. 

It’s so obvious Gorzelanny is unhealthy it isn’t funny.  Huntington keeps running him out there and sure as I’m writing this, there is a toll that will be paid sooner or later.  He needs to be shut down.

It was a nice win – one the Pirates needed in front of their fans.  The fact the Yankees didn’t start two of their A players (Matsui and Damon, both 4th in the AL in hitting) was a bit bizarre, but I’m sure they are looking ahead.  Maybe Cashman said I’ll give you this series, you give me Marte and…

–

Some perceptive readers already noticed we have won our share of expected wins through June and we still have six games to go.  We’re not exactly blazing toward a .500 year, but we could be a game or two up if we can keep winning.

 

Ok… ok… I’ll answer your questions about this article.  I hate to… I really do, because then it gives the piece credibility which it doesn’t deserve.  But since some of you noticed yet another media article was written on a subject matter first started here, I’ll address it. 

I rarely read Bob Smizik at the Post-Gazette anymore because he flip-flops worse than a mad politician does.  In fact, I try to stay away from Dejan’s perverse, and often incorrect, writing as well. But since the team is owned by media men, a blogger getting anything on a routine basis from the media department isn’t easy.

Newspaper men work for a living, bloggers don’t.  That’s understandable, until you read write-for-pay crap like this:

“There will be no six-year deal with Bay — or anybody. The Pirates learned the foolishness of contracts of such length with Kendall.  But Bay might be agreeable, after this season and before free agency is at hand, to sign a three-year extension at, say, $33 million. That’s $11 million a season. It’s high, but it’s what Bay, if he continues to return to his 2004-06 form, will deserve.  Will the Pirates step up with that kind of money?

They don’t have much choice. The fan base has been exceedingly patient. The franchise has to make a commitment to its best players.”  Bob Smizik, June 22, 2008

For a minute, put aside the fact $11M per year in today’s market means Bay, as a free agent, would be signing at about 2.5 wins above a replacement type player.  That in itself is ludicrist.

Rather, focus on what Smizik is telling us should happen – the Pirates should spend $11M per year in 2010, 2011, and 2012 for a guy who has:

1. Never played two consecutive healthy years;
2. Will be 31 the year that contract would start;
3. Plays LF – a position that requires speed (large OF at PNC); and
4. Has had two consecutive declining years defensively, including 2008;

Now I agree Bay is a solid middle of the order guy, and I agree he’s improved his game this year.  Still, he also dogged us some for two years after getting big money – for whatever reasons.  

I remember rainbow throws as high as 50 feet in the air; I remember him trotting to first like he cared less; I remember him so slow to the ball batters routinely took extra bases on him; and I still see him failing to hit in the clutch.  Some of those things Bay could have performed better on – he had a choice and his choice was to dog it.

But more importantly, Smizik wants us all to believe that spending $33M for Bay should be worth more to us than the younger prospects that he could bring in return if dealt.  Let me rephrase that – Smizik wants us to believe that our 90+ loss team will somehow benefit by spending a ton of money on one player who will be in declining years.

The man has lost his marbles. 

Teams that are consistently losing 90 games a year don’t need to be spending $11M per year on one player.  Teams that are losing 90 games per year need to rebuild from the ground up with young, impact talent obtained from trading fat cat players like Bay.

The Pittsburgh Pirates need Bay roaming left field at PNC at age 33 for $11M per year about as much as they need Cam Bonifay back as General Manager. 

Now I agree with the general premise that the Pirates should try to get Bay to tag on two years to his current deal, but only to make him more attractive to the receiving team.  And that’s only if the Pirates get Bay to sign two of his free agent years away at a discounted price.

Smizik suggests $11M per year which is the equivalent of 2.5 wins above replacement level (WAR) player.  Bay won’t sign for that even on a discounted deal.  He’s a 4 to 5 WAR guy and he could easily get $33M on a two-year if he hit free agency, but because he’ll want his last big deal, he’ll probably only settle for something like a six-year, $60M deal somewhere.  And he’ll get it.

So in reality, Pirates fans don’t have to worry about what Smizik wrote because Bay would be out of his mind if he settled for a deal like that.  And Bay’s not out of his mind. 

Instead, realize that another media mouth has suggested the Pirates forget rebuilding and pay another huge contract to an aging player that will be in his declining years. 

Smizik said one thing I agree with: “he again has become one of the best offensive outfielders in the National League.”  That’s pretty much true – right this minute.  And what is the old saying – sell high, buy low?

C-ya Bay, and take your buddy Smizik with you before he expands this other article wanting the Pirates to pay another $30M.

 

Lots of emails on who might fill in for Snell if he is out for an extended period of time.  The way the new regime has played their hands, Bryan Bullington looks to be the guy who will get the ball.  Whether that will happen or not, I don’t know. 

And no, there is nobody in our entire system worthy of being called up, as sad as that is to say.  The MLE’s for the International League suggest anybody pitching there right now is going to get hammered, and Altoona down doesn’t have anyone either worthy, or ready.

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Before you read this section please understand I have no advanced medical knowledge and I relied on others to inform me on these issues the best they could.  This section is more a guess on my own opinions than anything based on what I have seen around the game, folks I have talked to that have gone through some of the same type issues, and general knowledge of previous player handling by the Pirates.

We heard today from the Post-Gazette that Snell has medial epicondylitis, more commonly called golfer’s elbow.  But after speaking with several folks in and out of the medical field, that’s pretty much a catchall phrase for they don’t have a clue what’s wrong other than Snell saying he’s feeling pain.  Don’t get me wrong – Snell’s tests more than likely showed something abnormal (probably swelling) on the medial side of his elbow, but what exactly is causing it is most likely yet to be determined.

A case in point is Angel Guzman with the Cubs who went down with the same pain in his arm. He also was diagnosed with medial epicondylitis, he was rested for a couple of weeks and then started a throwing program the third week, remained on rehab assignment for a month still experiencing pain and discomfort, and then ended up having reconstructive elbow surgery later that year.

Now elbow problems are not something new to Snell although he did say in the Post-Gazette article he had never experienced any problem before.  In September of 2006 Snell was shut down with tightness in his right elbow. At that point I think everyone concerned wrote it off as a fatigued arm, which was probably true. 

Monday’s Post-Gazette article also had this little blurb about the current injury: “It is the simple over-use of an elbow muscle.”

Nothing is that simple in a shoulder and elbow generating so much torque.

While the article suggests Snell may miss one start, I think he’s headed to the 15-day and I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t end up on the 60-day down the road.  And here’s why:

1.  Assuming everything we’ve heard is complete and correct, then the Pirates have to find a way to reduce the torque on his elbow or he’s going to come right down with the problem again.  That’s going to take time.

2.  Since I don’t believe the PG article was researched well, I’ll simply state that Snell’s inflammation isn’t the problem, if he even has any - that’s the result of the injury.  The goal of the Pirates is to first see if he responds to inflammatory medicines and, if he does, start him on a throwing program to see if the area gets sore again.  I suspect it will for numerous reasons, the most obvious being Snell throws too many sliders. But the main reason I think it will is…

3.  He’s already exhibited elbow problems and there is a good chance he has some scaring and the pain is going to reoccur until he finally gets it cleaned out.  This is where I think Snell is headed, sooner or later.

4.  And if he does respond to inflams, then I’ve been told the normal period of recovery for atypical “golfer’s elbow” is no less than four to six weeks before he can start throwing again just to heal the tendon(s). Then add some time in Bradenton, a rehab stint, and, well, you may not even see Snell back this year.

And that’s the point of all this post.  Since the Pirates seemed to have indicated to the PG Snell will only miss one start, it’s entirely possible they might be questioning whether there is anything wrong with Snell at all. The exact statement at the PG was:

“The arthrogram revealed no damage to the ulnar collateral ligament, which is far more important to a pitcher.”

It does not say abnormality was seen on the medial side, just that none was discovered on the UCL side.  That’s important.  And if they didn’t see any inflammation, you can’t help but to wonder if Snell is seeing flying cows and the Pirates simply want to get his butt back out there to throw the ball like he’s being paid to do, butt-whipping or not.  Perhaps more will be revealed in the PG tonight?  Somehow I don’t think there will be.

If a report comes out saying inflammation was present, then expect him down 4 – 6 weeks minimally, my best guess, and possibly as long as three months.  If they say inflammation wasn’t found, then he could be back on the mound his next start pitching with a tick of discomfort like most pitchers have at times.  But if they say he’s scheduled for an MRI (Pirateball said he had one but I think they are in error), a trip to go see Doc Andrews, or Snell is getting a second opinion on his own which he has the right to do, then, well, take a dart and throw it at the calendar to see when he’ll be back.

But no matter when Snell comes back, no matter when he starts throwing the ball again, he’s got to take torque off that elbow or he’s very likely going to continue to experience problems.

Dumatrait is another case.  The PG said he has bursitis in his rotator cuff.  Well ok, but again, what caused the inflammation?  That’s what the Pirates will have to find out and I think that’s going to take a lot more time than July 5th.  I’d be shocked if he doesn’t go under the knife, but that’s my own wild guess.

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I’m hearing the Pirates are talking with a free agent pitcher.  We’ll see if he agrees to pitch for us.  Right now it doesn’t seem like he is and the Pirates may have to make a trade to get some AAA fodder that can eat innings.  I wonder if Morris has stayed loose?  LOL

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MONDESI FIELD TRIP: THE PIRATES’ ALL YOU CAN EAT SECTION review. 

Hilarious and sad all at the same time.

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Why is it that the player of the week usually hails from a club we played the previous week?

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Those that emailed wanting to know about Snell’s pitch speeds, MLB told me the PITCHf/x tracking system blew up at PNC Park over the weekend and they are in the process of repiring the system.  So there was no data for the last two games.

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Here’s a nice article on Jim Negrych’s early success this year.  It’s a good read.  Take away from the article the fact he ditched the long swing mentality that has plagued the Pirates system in recent years.

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So, where exactly are the Pirates with their stash of cash in this deal?  Like, I thought we were moving forward in Latin America?  You know, nice new facilities, great scouts, blah-blah-blah.  Just no impact players, I guess.

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Ok, here’s what many of you have been waiting for, especially my buds in Vegas.

Tuesday’s game opens with a lot of attention on the matchup and you have to assume our younger guys are going to be a bit taken in by it all.  At least to start the game, that is. 

Gorzy’s been pitching high in the zone and getting away with it for the most part.  He’s also thrown one heck of a lot of pitches the last three games on a highly fatigued arm.  Put the two together and I think we’re going to see Gorzy humbled Tuesday if the Yankees start their available A lineup.

But that doesn’t mean the Pirates won’t be able to get a few runs of their own. Rasner has been pitching a bit over his head lately but that might partially be because of the poorer competition he pitched against.  He’s typically around the plate and generally doesn’t overpower anyone so we’re going to be getting wood on the ball. 

If we swing long all day, we might have a chance if our OBP guys get on base. If we rack up singles and doubles, we’re going to get killed in the end and he might settle in any blank us for five straight innings.  He’s capable of it, although his stuff is middle of the order’ish.

I think the Yankees bats get the best of us Tuesday, Joba is just nasty and will be tough Wednsday but we might be able to watch enough pitches float by to get him out in the 5th and then attack their pen, and unless Mussina finds new found life somewhere, I like our shot against him Thursday.

It will be interesting to see if the Pirates leave Nady on the pine against Rasner and Joba.  I suspect they will but will Michaels be the answer?  He just might be, considering he wants a ticket out of Pittsburgh in July to a contender if he can get one.  Mientz at third?  Sit Sanchez and play Rivas again?

Oh boy – the options we have.