My thoughts about the two trades are here. 

Starting late 2001, I became a member of pirateball.com’s discussion forum and posted there nearly every day following the team from late 2002 until I started Bucco Blog where I’ve posted a daily beat now for two and one-half years.

That’s nearly a six year daily grind folks.  I’ve heard every excuse possible why this team is on the right track, why a certain trade made sense, or why “X” player was more worthy.  But the bottom line the entire time was, we stunk, we weren’t getting better, and I wanted to try and educate the fans over the years why I felt their hope was misguided.  No, I wasn’t perfect – I made just as many bad evaluations as the next fan did. 

Still, we all wanted the same thing – this proud franchise to stand up again.

As I sat reading all the messages being posted today from Dejan’s blog to other fan blogs to my blog here, I realized one thing – as fans we’re right back where we were in 2001.  We’re so niave we honestly believe another “Tike Redman” is going to save the day. 

We have next to zero impact in the system and we traded for zero impact.  You can tell me all day long Tabata, Alvarez, or LaRoche will be this or that but until they are, they are nothing but names in the system to me.  Yet we keep sending away the Chris Youngs, Jason Schmidts, and Jason Bays, while keeping the Zach Dukes, Jack Wilsons, and Steve Pearces. 

As fans, we haven’t woke up yet… we’re not smart enough to ever cause a change in Pittsburgh.  Because of that, the ownership group will continue to throw us hope bones here and there to try and keep us off balanced while raking in the dough and laughing at us behind our backs. 

It’s a game they love to play, and they are damn good at it. 

So you can make all the comments below you want about how I don’t know what I’m talking about, how all your players are going to be superstars with the Pirates a .600 team in two years, and how there’s no way you could ever be wrong.  I expect that.  I’ve taken a lot of heat over the years and I expect to take a lot more.

But I’m going to tell you now the same thing I told pirateball.com members in 2002 – this club is going nowhere and we’re letting ownership screw us. 

Nothing has changed.

2:05 PM –  not Toronto, contrary to Stark’s latest report.  They haven’t even talked to the Pirates I’m hearing, which is about what I expected.

Two hours to go.  Rays have to be the leader if Huntington is going to deal short.  Now, is Wilson being pitched somewhere late too?  We’ll see.

2:50 PM — Not Boston.  Not the A’s, although my source there says “if Bay’s cheap enough…”

It’s becoming apparent nobody wants to deal with Huntington.  He’s called so many teams and they have all refused him - he can’t give Bay away… or Wilson… or Grabow. 

Nutting’s starting to sweat thinking of all the green cabbage he should have saved by now.  There’s still the Rays for Bay…

3:47 PM — Some are saying Bay is a Ray.  Is he?  For those that can’t load other sites like Dejan’s, he doesn’t have a clue either. 

3:58 PM – Late push by Boston might have made Bay a Red Sox.  That might also mean Wilson was dealt.  We’ll see.  Nobody is talking.

4:12 PM — I’m guessing the Pirates want to wait until the 4:30 conference because they are remaining tight lipped.  My senses tell me Huntington couldn’t get much of anything done despite repeated efforts but we’ll all see then.

4:30 PM — Bay stays.  Confirmed by Perrotto at Beaver County’s website.  But he might be wrong.

4:35 PM — Bay to Red Sox.  Pirates get Andy LaRoche (LA), and Craig Hanson and Brandon Moss (BOS). Oh, and Bryan Morris (LA).  New York Times has it.

Aaron Cook is having a very good year and, while the Bucs got to him for a few runs, they couldn’t muster enough to overtake the six Duke had given up. 

So we fall to 50-58 closing out July play which is +4 wins over our expected historical win/loss record, two of those wins being pythagorean “lucky” wins (expected wins based on runs scored vs runs allowed) which may or may not even out as the season progresses.

–

The trade rumor buzz is about the three-way deal between the Red Sox, Pirates, and Marlins.   When I saw Hermida’s name associated with the Pirates I spewed my beer.  I’m not going to go into the whys right now because I think the probability of this deal ever being consumated is relatively small.  So I’m going to keep focusing on the other teams in the Bay hunt because I honestly believe the Pirates are in salary dump mode.

I assume Neal Huntington has a few teams interested in buying Bay on the cheap, including the Rays.  Wilson probably has a few suitors too.  Don’t be too surprised if you hear Ken Rosenthal at 4:01 PM tomorrow saying: “What in the world were the Pirates thinking” for the second time in a week. 

I hope I’m wrong.

–

160,000 page loads last 7 days.  My God, where is everybody coming from?  I guess I should be asking, what is everyone expecting to find?  And thanks to those who emailed their support.  It’s pretty easy seeing through Dejan’s “I’m like a bought-and-paid-for-reporter who promotes the org’s PR” BS.  You’re learning. 

–

I’m off to bed – son’s sick.  Not much is going to happen before the Commissioner’s Office opens Thursday I’m guessing.  If something does happen, I’m betting we won’t like it anyway.

One Rays source is saying they are close to a “very interesting” trade.  I talked to my friend that works with the club and he said the deal is “lightening in a bottle if it all gets done.”  Neither would identify the team involved but since I was alerted, it must be the Pirates.  Both clubs are being hush-hush.

I assume it involves more than Bay and nets the Bucs a couple of substantial impact players in return.

I’ll leave the “who” speculation to you folks since nobody is talking about the who.

–

3:15 PM — Not 15 minutes after posting the above I received an email from a very solid source who said “Bay may not be going to the Rays – don’t jump too fast.”  There doesn’t seem to be any question the Rays are close to a big deal, but that’s the second person now telling me Bay’s destination isn’t St. Petersburg.  Boy it’s hard to decipher the motivations of sources at times like this.

–

3:25 PM — Confirmed… there is a mystery third team in on Bay.  That’s all I can say.

–

4:30 PM — The Rays push for Bay seems dead, one source tells me.  In fact, that source says the push has been dead for days and re-drummed up by one beat reporter in Pittsburgh.  Now several others are saying the same thing.  I get the feeling there is an offer on the table from the Rays, but not one the Pirates are going to be willing to take.

Perhaps I had assumed too much when my Rays bud emailed me about a pending deal?  The more I read his cryptic message, the more I’m starting to believe he was trying to tell me the Rays were off looking at a mega-deal somewhere else.  But I have to admit I still don’t know.

I do know there is another club pushing for Bay and their name isn’t St. Louis or Tampa.  Whether or not they will beat whatever the Rays might have put on the table is certainly questionable since they aren’t rich in talent, but they do have the pieces to get it done I’m told.

I also continue to hear Wilson whispers, but it’s probably just me since I’m digging hard trying to find someone to take his lazy butt off our hands.  However, I don’t think Wilson staying in Pittsburgh is as dead as some believe.

–

7:00 PM — All the noise is the same – Rays placed an offer on the table days ago which Huntington obviously didn’t think was acceptable and they sit back waiting.  My Rays bud finally emailed back and told me I was “on the right path” but refused to talk about any deal. 

One AL ex-exec told me the Rays probably gave Huntington a list of ‘acceptable’ players they would deal and it’s up to Huntington to make a decision if any of them would make a good enough package for Bay.  He also said the word in the circuit is that the Pirates are more interested in clearing payroll off the books than ever, so don’t look for anyone to blow Huntington’s socks off.

Ouch.

–

8:40 PM — The third “mystery” team has been disclosed all over the media now so my source is safe.

As you’ve heard, the Red Sox are trying to work a deal with the Marlins and Bay is their backup.  When I heard that around 3 my initial thought was it will never happen but it persists.

More as I hear it.

Just how improbable have these last two wins been?  Nine walks Monday ultimately caved the Rockies and Tuesday we win behind Yoslan Hererra, Jason Davis, Sean Burnett as a setup guy, Tyler Yates closing, and Luis Rivas going three for four with three rbis. 

Yeah, right.  Well, hey, wins are wins are wins, no matter how bizarre.

If I’m the Rockies I find an immediate replacement for Brad Hawpe who can’t play a lick of right field, despite his 3-3 night. He might have added a run or two offensively but he gave up more than that defensively.  And what was all that baserunning stuff by the Rockies in the sixth – who is on third, where’s the ball, who wants to run.  Then we made a couple miscues of our own – did you see Doumit leave his feet lunging to tag out Stewart?  What the heck was that all about?

In the end it didn’t matter – we had scored enough runs to hold on and win.

Brutal baseball.  You have to wonder where the Rockies hearts are right now with two very tough losses.

–

John Grabow’s stock plummeted in front of a ton of scouts, about the same as Wilson’s has the last little bit while scouts have been watching.  Some say the best way to a no-trade is…

–

I honestly thought we had a chance of raiding the Angels private farm stock with Bay.  I had secretly hoped for a Kotchman package thinking he would be a fabulous upgrade to Anderson.  I realize Kotch’s numbers look putrid but don’t think for a moment they would remain there in the NLCD.  He’s about a year or so from breaking out huge. 

The Braves got a fabulous return for a Teixeira rental as long as Kotch stays healthy. 

–

Doumit/Grabow… Maybin…  ???  Don’t laugh.  Maybin has had some trouble lately, especially health questions and Doumit would positively give them +2 wins IF, and a big if here, if he could walk in and handle their staff.  No, the Marlins wouldn’t ever do it.  Would they?

Drool on that one thinking about McCutchen, Maybin, and Tabata in the outfield down the road. Maybe we could supplement those three with Kotchman (come on Neal, do a Braves deal and get him, LOL), and throw in Alvarez, Ford, and, and.. well, I guess we’d need a shortstop and catcher. 

I see Will Carroll’s eyes lighting up like deer in headlights with all the risk there.

But wow.  Ok, back to reality.

–

Strat-o-matic says we are a .404 winning percentage club after the latest trades and roster moves and with Sanchez and LaRoche both on the DL for more than 15 days in August.  That means we should only win 22 games the rest of the year but somehow the way our luck has been going, I’m betting Sean Burnett will win two, Karstens will win no less than five, Osoria will get a couple more, and Ohlendorf will be promoted and win three or four too.  Unbelievable year.

So that projects us out winning 72 overall, four better than last year.

–

Take a look where opposing teams have been pitching Nate McLouth this year (April 1st to July 28th):

The red dots are balls that were put in play ending an at bat, blue dots are strikes of any kind during the at bat other than balls in play, and the green dots are pitches called a ball.  Pretend you are the umpire looking at the pitcher and McLouth is standing in the batters box to the right of the image.  The dark red rectangle in the center is McLouth’s strike zone and the width is 17″. 

Very, very interesting.

MLB.com Braves beat writer Mark Bowman stated earlier Monday that:

“Before the start of Friday’s game, many of the Braves players were asking about Bay.  Some were under the impression that they were going to walk into the clubhouse that day and find him to be their newest teammate. 

“But a proposed deal, which would have brought Bay to Atlanta in exchange for four Minor Leaguers, was killed when presented to the Pirates owners for approval.”

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette responded:

“Also yesterday, a high-level source within the Pirates emphatically rejected an account on MLB.com — reported by no other outlet — that the Pirates and Braves had agreed to a Bay-for-four-prospects trade, only to have it vetoed by the Pirates’ ownership. No aspect of it was accurate, the source said, and ownership, while informed of pending trades, has not vetoed any since team president Frank Coonelly took over last summer.” — Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, July 29, 2008

So, does MLB.com have liars working for them?  Is Bowman’s story a fabrication?

Or, are the Pittsburgh Pirates so out of it one hand doesn’t know what the other hand is doing and their response has now tarnished a writer’s good name? 

Or, perhaps this is nothing more than a Post-Gazette Pirates beat writer trying to protect his own credibility since he got beat to the draw, if Bowman is accurate?  And, did the Post-Gazette beat writer contact a valid source within the Pirates who would even have direct knowledge?  I mean, “high-level source” within the Pirates could mean anything.

It’s MLB.com’s turn to respond to their credibility beatdown.

Ian Snell had a good outing against the Rockies Monday night.  Yes, he was hit hard.  Yes, the Rockies were a tick undisciplined at the plate.  Yes, he was rough early.  But he made some adjustments, settled in, and was able to keep them off the board after giving up three runs thru two.

Our offense choked until we were issued three consecutive walks leading off the fifth and then Doumit hammered a double into right scoring two of them.  Another single and a sac fly later, the Pirates had pulled ahead 4-3.  We added a three more runs in the 6th including a monster 448′ solo shot home run by McLouth that bounced into the river. 

John Russell used Bautista for two innings to finish the game suggesting to me he isn’t going to be annointed as the closer.  Still, he whiffed four of the batters he saw throwing pinpoint 95 heaters.

–

“I can’t believe it!”  Mazeroski said. “We just traded two of our best players for four guys I never heard of.  How could we do this?”  — Bill Mazeroski quote, July 27, 2008, in the NY Daily News

I’m betting you’ll hear a retraction from Maz over the next few days out of pure loyalty to the organization, but don’t discount his words.  Maz is no fool.  Oh, and he’s a special instructor for the club as well.

So that means there are at least two people who feel the Pirates got robbed in the Nady/Marte deal;  Jake and Maz.  How bizarre.

Oh, and Ken Rosenthal just stated:

“The reviews of the Pirates’ four-player return for outfielder Xavier Nady and lefty Damaso Marte ranged from critical to scathing”

I guess there is more than just two of us.

– 

After speaking with a few people, the Bay to Braves rumor where Pirates ownership rejected the deal as reported by Mark Bowman, the Atlanta Braves beat reporter for MLB.com, seems to be a fact despite one Pirates beat writer calling it untrue.  ”Multiple solid sources” confirmed this.  Most fans don’t know this but Bowman lives in Wheeling, WV, and has known the Nuttings for a long time.  

Readers that emailed want to know why Neal Huntington is having his hand held so tight, and also want to know if it was Nutting or Coonelly than nixed it and if that’s normal.

First of all, Coonelly is ownership.  What I mean is, Coonelly doesn’t think for ownership, contrary to what you are reading in newspaper reports, he talks for them, although he certainly has input they value.  Perhaps a better way to put it is, he represents ownership’s interests in public… he’s a figurehead.  Since the Nutting’s hold majority interest in the franchise, I think it’s reasonable to say the Nutting’s killed this deal.

Like the Bay to Indians deal was rejected last winter.

Is it normal for ownership to reject deals?  The four sources I have who have either worked in front offices, currently work in front offices, or are close to ownership, all said no.  I’m told all trades routinely run through the CEO of all four org’s but never has one been rejected.  But let me stress this – all four organizations have GMs who are household names and have been in their positions for quite some time. 

That’s not the case in Pittsburgh. 

My research has uncovered instances in other organizations where ownership has reportedly rejected offers and I guess the best case example of that was Vince Naimoli rejecting Chuck Lamar deals with the Rays.  But that’s probably the extreme.

So, no, it doesn’t seem to be the rule.

Why is Huntington’s hand being held so tight?  You have to assume Huntington felt the Indians and Braves offers were both acceptable to him to even present them to Coonelly, but to try and guess why they were both struck down would be pure speculation. 

–

If you have been reading Bucco Blog then you know I’ve been high on Matt McSwain and Monday night he hurled a no-no through 8 innings against a pretty decent Charleston team, facing the minimum no less.  What a blessing for that young man to come back as he has.

Keep an eye on him.

“The shock didn’t set in until X said his goodbyes.  They all knew it was going to happen, they just didn’t really know it was going to happen.  Now everyone is on pins and needles wondering if the revolving door has their name on it and where the door leads to.  The fun is gone.” — someone close to the players

It’s no wonder the Padres tossed us back into the NLCD cellar with such ease.  Heck, they came in as a .306 road team and walked out taking three of four.  Sure, that’s been the case since the break across baseball, but it’s different in Pittsburgh.  Next are the Rockies who have won nine of their last ten and on a mission.  It’s not going to get any easier.

And it won’t be much fun.

Possible pressure effects are already being seen – LaRoche and Sanchez both out with back problems, balls routinely floating under Wilson’s glove again, and Bay looking like he lost his puppy dog.  It’s a hard time for any player on the bubble, but even more so when it involves moving somewhere else and starting all over.  It’s no fun.

Maholm pitched another gem but Peavy is Peavy.  This is two years in a row now Maholm has been matching up consistently with other team’s aces.  The guy has a lot of guts, I’ll hand that to him.

–

The Rockies come to town and will be starting Jason Hirsh vs Snell, Rusch vs Herrera, and Cook vs Duke.  Hirsh has pretty much owned the Pirates in limited innings at PNC (3.60 ERA in two starts). He’s going to give up some hits but he keeps the game close and is pretty tough to pick up first time or two batters see him.  Rusch we’ve handled pretty well at home since we can drive his stuff into the gaps, and Cook we generally hit well too. 

I’m not so sure there is going to be a lot of fire in our dugout with all the players names floating out there right now.  Might be a good time to take the under for this series.

–

The Pirates are saying Karstens will take the mound Friday or Saturday in Chicago against the Cubs.  My guess is Saturday since extensive rain is forecast that day and I doubt the Pirates are going to want to expose Maholm to that. 

What should you expect from Karstens?  He’s been an extreme flyball pitcher at times and that doesn’t bode well considering he’s making his Pirates debut at Wrigley in an afternoon game.  He can be tough at times but your more likely to see a command problem with him than not.  One source of mine suggested he thought Karstens might have been hiding a shoulder injury since mid-2007 so let’s watch and see if he doesn’t become yet another Pittsburgh DL candidate.

Also, Jason Davis has been promoted to Pittsburgh and I assume he’ll be our closer for Capps since that’s what he’s always wanted to do and he’s one of Huntington’s guys.  That’s just a guess since we don’t have anyone else.  Grabow isn’t a realistic option, or shouldn’t be anyway, and Bautista may get the first shot but don’t expect much there.

–

I can’t help wondering if we’re going to see some guys on the 25-man all of a sudden be placed on the DL to open some active roster space.  Just a thought… let’s see what happens.

–

Question bag:

“Apparently this trade was good for the Pirates because not one Pittsburgh newspaper, radio show, TV station, or blog I follow had anything negative to say.  You’re the only one Jake.” – Jerry B. in Pittsburgh

Yeah, it’s Jake against the world, huh?  All I can say is this – I don’t have a contract with the Pirates, I don’t earn a living writing about the team, and I don’t need a couple of hits from a writer’s blog.

The best I can tell, not one person in any of those mediums evaluated the trade based on the years roster moves made before the trade like I did, all they see is the Pirates PR plug that we got “three starters and an impact bat.”

Sure we did.  

Let them all sit back and say “nobody can judge this trade for a couple of years” or “Huntington’s decisions during the year can’t be properly evaluated for quite some time.”  That’s exactly what the Pirates want you to think.  It’s a stall job and as fans we’ve eaten stale hope for years and years. 

My point is, Neal Huntington tossed marginal players out the door earlier in the year and then brought in his own marginal players with this trade.  His prayer is that Tabata becomes something.  He better, because that’s all we got for Nady and Marte – a huge risk.  That’s not smart baseball in my book.

“Tabata is a monster.  How could you not like this trade?” — Glenn B. Tampa

And a monster high-risk prospect too.  Consider Elijah Dukes who was the 5th best prospect in a very deep Rays system in 2005, rated higher than AZ’s Chris Young in 2007 on one prospect list, and was later traded to the Nationals for a relief pitcher whose name you’ll never hear again.  So your point is… ???

I’m not interested in seeing the Pirates take risks in makeup.  Tools, ok.  Makeup, no.  Health, no.  But Tabata has both makeup and health red flags.  That’s too much risk for me, and I think it should be too much risk for Huntington as well.

“Three starters Jake!  Three! They can’t all be as bad as Matt Morris was.” –  Victor H  Wheeling

Boy did I get a lot of emails like this one eating up the Pirates PR release.  The probability of these three guys starting in the majors – and being successful – over a significant period of time is about the same as Jack Wilson hitting 40 home runs next year.  In other words, forget it.  The tools just aren’t there.  We got two pen guys and a starter who is going to have a lot more bad days than good days over a period of time.

“This smells of David Littlefield.”  — Bob S. Pittsburgh

Agreed, we just took a different path which seems to be confusing some people right now.

“Glass half-full, what’s to like about the trade?” — Chuck R  Pittsburgh

Lots of emails wanting an optimist’s view too. 

I assume you want an honest take so here’s what I’ll give you – Tabata becomes that solid full-time 5-tool player everyone wants to see by his second year of arb and we deal him for booty;  Ohlendorf becomes a solid middle reliever we can count on in the 6th for years to come; Karstens surprises us with 2H 2006 form and racks up some quality starts; and McCutchen finally finds the plate consistently and becomes a set-up guy.  But that’s a small glass which is half-full, if you get my drift. 

“More deals, or more steals? And would you have kept Nady and Marte?” — Warren G. Arlington Heights, IL

I’m guessing Bay and Grabow like everyone else is suggesting may happen.  Lots of talk around the game about both.  Will it ever happen?  I doubt it.

I would have kept Nady and dealt Marte since we had so many teams locked in on him.  The Pirates refusal to spend money on trying to keep Nady (Boras client) concerns me, but I won’t go into that here.  Some suggest what we saw, and what we may see more of, is nothing but more salary dumping.  They may be right.

“Did the Pirates set up shop to deal Bay at a higher value by getting rid of Nady early?” — Hugh L Boston

No.  Bay’s value is Bay’s value which Nady had zero impact on.  The other elite hitters said to be available which might impact Bay’s value in July are still out there.

There’s nothing like the Pirates PR machine.  They made a trade late Friday while many were busy with other life events and then change it on Saturday morning while few were looking as the players they dealt head off to play in one of the most hyped series of the year.

On the mound that Saturday night for the Pirates is the team’s worst starter facing one of the worst offensive machines in baseball and he’s getting hammered, then his reliever gets crushed, and finally they pan to Neal Huntington who talks about the recent trade saying he made the deal because he needed pitching depth.

All the while the Pirates run a charity auction in the background wanting the fans to pay for a baseball diamond for special needs children who are shown every two or three minutes with their diabilities.

This club needs an Academy Award for best performance.  I mean, Steven Speilberg couldn’t have written a better script. 

–

There is no sense talking about the game other than to say JVB was mauled as expected and the guys looked tired and down.  As most fans now realize, the rest of the year is a race to the cellar for draft picks and analyzing young players potential.  It’s been that way from July on for the last decade.

Oh, and the Steelers camp opens Sunday.

Here we come .370, here we come.

–

My take on the Nady/Marte trade is posted in the feature column. 

–

No, I don’t hope McCutchen comes up to witness this mess.  Hopefully Huntington will stabalize the roster before September and then call him up as a token shot.