Rosenthal: D-Day is near

“Then again, the suspicion of Pirates’ new management team of club president Frank Coonelly and GM Neal Huntington is understandable — they’ve yet to show they can make proper decisions.”  — Ken Rosenthal, Fox Sports July 25, 2008

The day after veteran sports writer Danny Knobler indicated a growing rift in the Pirates front office, heavyweight writer Ken Rosenthal not only supported Knobler’s take that executives have been taken aback by the Pirates valuation of their players, but then took his own turn blasting the Bucs front office.

It’s an ongoing story I’ve been telling you about for months, and it’s not going to go away anytime soon.  The reason?  There isn’t as much value in the hole as the fans want to believe and no matter what the Pirates front office does, they can’t possibly win in their eyes.

Consider this:  by all accounts Xavier Nady is having a career type year.  I’ve already discussed the issues surrounding Nady’s value here at the blog – he’s 29, his medicals suggest he could break down any moment, his offense over the last month has been fueled by an unsustainable 37% hit rate, and he’s a poor defender in right, the only position he can play with any sense of respectability.

One analyst with a NLCD team told me last night Nady’s value is +0.5 wins for a contending club replacing a replacement level player, which means he’s worthless to a contender.  Especially when you consider there doesn’t seem to be any potential contenders “whose only alternative is to a trade is a replacement player in RF or LF.”

But the fans want to see an MLB-ready “A” prospect for Nady.  Unfortunately, the value just isn’t there (about 2.0 WAR this year on the high side).  Unless some GM is willing to come to Huntington’s rescue (calling Shapiro, calling Dombrowski) for the sake of bolstering Huntington’s credibility hoping for a better deal down the line from him in exchange, Huntington is in a no-win situation.

I discussed last winter why waiting to “increase value” with Bay didn’t hold water for a few reasons, but the most obvious being that the Pirates will have eaten about 33% of his remaining contractual value.  This winter that jumps to 50%.  So unless a contender needs one power bat to push them over the top this July, he’ll never get dealt without Huntington taking a beating and why the Pirates are saying they might try to keep him around.

Then there is Snell’s regression since he was at the height of his career last winter when he should have been dealt; Doumit and McLouth who are currently at the height of their careers but the Pirates act like both are untouchable for some bizarre reason; Sanchez who was given new money then faded like Jack Wilson did when he received his new money; and other players who have taken value hits because of health issues like Grabow (elbow), Capps (shoulder), and Gorzelanny (workload/fatigue).

Rosenthal finished his article on the Bucs saying:

“Trading Nady, Marte and even Bay when their values are high would be the right thing to do.  The truth will be revealed at the deadline — Thursday at 3 p.m.  Then, and only then, can the Pirates be judged.”

Haven’t they been judged already since Rosenthal said “they’ve yet to show they can make proper decisions,” Knobler and five other national writers have written about the exorbitant price tags Huntington has put on his players, and even bloggers like ole’ Jake here have told you there are more problems on Federal Street than you’ll ever know?

By July 31st Huntington will turn some deals if for no other reason than all the components that make up the industry – media, owners, fans, and Selig’s office – are applying pressure… pressure so tight even a Holistic practitioner must find it hard to breath.

One question that has to be asked is, who becomes the Pirates front office savior(s)?  Shapiro?  Dombrowski?  Epstein?  Friedman?  Colletti?

Probably the better question to be asked is, what if nobody runs to bail out this group? 

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Thanks for all the email support folks.  It took a long time this year for many of you to wake up to reality, but you’re finally starting to see the light.  I try to call ‘em as I see ‘em. 

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I’ll be posting my personal opinions about the trades below as they occur.

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1.  Nady and Marte to the Yankees for RHP Dan McCutchen, RHP Jeff Karstens, OF Jose Tabata and RHP Ross Ohlendorf.   July 26, 2008

Let’s remember Neal Huntington’s winter position regarding his roster’s makeup:

“I would say there is a pretty good nucleus in place with the major-league roster, particularly the rotation… We feel good about where we’re headed, in large part because of our starters.” — Neal Huntington, January 10, 2008

Fair enough.  He didn’t indicate they were going to win in 2008, only that he liked the core group.  Bucco Blog readers know I’ve been high on Maholm’s ability to fill a #4/#5 slot and Gorzelanny to fill in a #2/#3 slot.  After that things get fuzzy for me.  I don’t see Snell as a starter, I don’t see Duke in any ML rotation, and we know Morris is now history with no MLB-ready depth in the system.

And that’s where this trade analysis starts.

Three of the four players Huntington traded for are being labeled starters, but only Karstens fits that bill to me and only then as a possible #5/#6 guy.  To be quite blunt, he’s taking Matt Morris’ place taking the ball every five days to eat some innings but will probably fare a tick better than Morris did here.  If we get more than that, raise the Jolly Roger because I don’t believe anyone expects more.  

Karstens tools from one pro scout’s view:

5th starter type. 4 pitch mix. Moves the ball around and has to! No plus weapon. Doesn’t project to have a miss bat pitch at the ML level. Fb (87-91) cb (77-80) sl (83-85)

Ohlendorf and McCutchen are the keys, not because they are impact arms but because they will play an important role in Huntington’s mid-range plans as I see it developing.  Here is one pro scout’s take on their tools:

Ohlendorf- sinker slider guy. 6th inning arm for me. Tops out at 95 with below average fb command.  Doesn’t strike me as being the toughest guy out there.

McCutchen- ML pen profiler. Aggressive mound presence!! Hard curveball is his calling card. Adequate feel for change. His fb is flat. Needs some life! Fb(88-92) cb(78-82). Overall command comes and goes.

These two guys will be in the running to take the ball from the 6th inning on starting in 2009, although you very well might see Ohlendorf earlier.  Huntington stated he’s going to continue stretching Ohlendorf out to see if he can make the jump to the Pirates rotation but if he doesn’t fare well in the jump, Huntington won’t be shocked.  If he does, everyone will be pleasantly surprised.

And Tabata’s “light switch” mentality means we can’t count on him until the young man decides to take the game seriously.  If he does, we end up with a toolsy impact guy down the road. But don’t hold your breath waiting for it - Neal Huntington certainly won’t be.  Another real concern is Tabata’s horrid hammy pull that might well limit him to being another 350 AB Nady down the road.

Both Huntington and Coonelly stressed after this trade that the organization was restocking its pitching depth with this deal.  I think that’s a fair assessment.  What bothers me is that we didn’t need to restock our depth if Huntington hadn’t given away the depth we had to begin with.

Shoved out the door, for whatever reason, were MLB arms Salomon Torres, Shawn Chacon, Matt Morris, Bryan Bullington, Shane Youman, and Tony Armas, not to mention the ton of non-roster invitees we had around in the spring.

So I see this trade as the need to pick up behind Neal Huntington’s first-year poor roster moves more than anything.  Of course, the club’s unwillingness to pay above market for free agents they were after might have something to do with it as well, although we don’t know if any of them would have desired to play in Pittsburgh anyway.

Had Huntington kept just Morris and Torres, he probably could have stood his ground for a couple of lower level impact players in return, instead of marginal to fringe guys plus one ticking bomb his new farm system “makeup” machine doesn’t need.

If we throw aside the fact Huntington made rookie GM roster moves that hurt this club, then the trade makes sense because he had to try and get a foundation back under the big club’s feet.  Unfortunately, unless Tabata becomes another Jose Guillen, this trade is nothing but a dead man’s hand no matter what any of the players do because they are simply filling in the foundation cracks Huntington allowed to appear.

My rating: Two thumbs down.  Nady’s value increased, Marte’s remained high, but we had to give them away because of poor front office planning.  We should have had more, in more ways than one.

Plus, I can’t help wondering if George Steinbrenner’s yelling at Selig that the Pirates were using welfare money to pay down debt instead of improving the on field product finally paid him a dividend?  It came up too fast and too many other GM’s were walked over for this to be anything but. 

Lastly, next time we trade two of our everyday players for four non-impact Yankees prospects someone kick me in the head and ask me why I’m still a Pirates fan.

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2.  Bay to the Red Sox for Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris from LAD, and Craig Hanson and Brandon Moss from BOS.  July 31, 2008

Morris is the key to this deal – if he makes it to Pittsburgh one day with the same projectable arm he had before he blew it out in 2006, the Pirates will have realized some impact from this trade.  The other three players are nothing more than wannabes or hopefuls who have to prove they are more than that before anyone will believe them anymore.

LaRoche started the year off as the Dodgers number two prospect and by all accounts has taken a pretty severe slide.  He’s slid so far the Dodgers started viewing him as a super-utility player.

I rarely agree a change of scenery will help a player but I think in LaRoche’s case it can at least be argued.  Still, he could be Bautista’s younger twin who projects to hit for average which Bautista can’t do, both are below average defenders, both have acceptable arms, both know the strike zone well, and both have a tick of power.  There’s no impact here but the fans will think the #2 projection is as sexy as him playing with his bro. 

If there is a second key to this deal, I don’t see it as LaRoche. 

Hansen is a marginal middle reliever if he sticks around that long and Moss projects out like Nady did when he first came over – a plus arm guy who can drive the ball but tends to have a difficult time against southpaws, where Nady was said to have a hard time against right handers.  Nady proved skeptics wrong and perhaps Moss will do the same making him the second key.  Again, there’s no tools for impact in either of these two players though.

So it comes down to the lightening in a bottle arm of Morris which is exactly the kind of risk Dave Littlefield took all those years and failed at – developing arms.  Morris has the tools but he’s going to need a lot of time, he’s pretty raw.

Like the Nady trade, we should have ended up with more for Bay.  Not more in the sense of quanity, but more in the sense of quality.  I believe Huntington lost that advantage when he didn’t deal Bay last winter exposing Bay to a trade with just 1.3 years left on his contract instead of two. 

My rating: It’s hard to not like Morris but he’s a huge, huge risk and since the rest of the booty is average to marginal, despite more upside, two thumbs down.

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Rosenthal said Huntington shouldn’t be judged until after the deadline passed and I think that’s fair.

The million dollar question is, did Neal Huntington get hired partly based on a presentation to Bob Nutting and Frank Coonelly that the 2007 roster could compete competitively in 2008?  I think he did knowing it was what Nutting wanted to hear, Shapiro probably supported him on it, and thereby set himself up for early failure unable to deal his roster last winter when his potential for return was highest.

On that accord, judging Huntington is easy – he’s failed.  Instead, immediately upon taking over he should have blown the roster up and thrown this club into a four to six-year rebuilding plan because that was the only way he is ever going to make the franchise successful again.  Snell, Sanchez, Bay, Nady, Wilson, and LaRoche should have been pushed out the door then, and McLouth, Doumit, and Maholm pushed out this July.

In the end he traded away three of his prime chips for two impact maybes and six average players while attempting to keep both ends of the candle burning at the same time – Nutting’s wish to not turn PNC into a ghost town and the need to rebuild. 

It won’t work.

And as a fan I think I have the right to question all the deals this year that has ulitmately put another $25M – $30M in the Nutting’s bank account to pay down his debt.  We can’t, and won’t, sign high-end free agents so what good does stashing the money do down the road?  Honestly, I feel what we have witnessed is just another Nutting salary dump – $12M to pay off Giles deferred salary and another $12M to cover 2008′s draft signs or Morris’ salary, Littlefield, and Tracy. 

But if instead we assume Huntington was mandated to keep his roster intact against his better judgement until at least July as at least one media source wants us to believe, then, indeed, Huntington got what the market would bear in both trades and the only question becomes was making the trades the best move?

Keeping Nady and Bay meant payroll would escalate in 2009 and the Bucs surely would have declined Marte’s option and offered him arb so if he left, we would have had at least one, if not two, supplementary draft picks.  But under the Pirates PR theme of “if our pitching was just average this year we probably would have been at least a .500 club if not competing for the division,” then why in the world would they make any trade that downgraded the roster if they actually believed that with  2009 right around the corner?

It doesn’t make any sense.

And never mind that we still have three soft tossers in the starting rotation, are adding a fourth Friday, and the one flame thrower we have is a two pitch pitcher who shows the ball so much the league has figured him out.  And what about those two thirtysomethings playing up the middle? I mean, did Huntington forget that pitching and defense wins games? 

We got what the market would bear so how can it be wrong?  So are the oil companies and next time you read how much profit Mobil made, you’ll understand why I think Pirates fans have been screwed once again.  All the Pirates really did was to open a new can of worms for the fans to put on their hooks to fish for hope with.  It’s a sick circle of dysfuntional greed.

But I suspect the fans will buy into the Pirates hope machine because there is nothing else they can do.  The fans have no choice.  None.  And Bob Nutting knows that.

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