Aaron Cook is having a very good year and, while the Bucs got to him for a few runs, they couldn’t muster enough to overtake the six Duke had given up.
So we fall to 50-58 closing out July play which is +4 wins over our expected historical win/loss record, two of those wins being pythagorean “lucky” wins (expected wins based on runs scored vs runs allowed) which may or may not even out as the season progresses.
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The trade rumor buzz is about the three-way deal between the Red Sox, Pirates, and Marlins. When I saw Hermida’s name associated with the Pirates I spewed my beer. I’m not going to go into the whys right now because I think the probability of this deal ever being consumated is relatively small. So I’m going to keep focusing on the other teams in the Bay hunt because I honestly believe the Pirates are in salary dump mode.
I assume Neal Huntington has a few teams interested in buying Bay on the cheap, including the Rays. Wilson probably has a few suitors too. Don’t be too surprised if you hear Ken Rosenthal at 4:01 PM tomorrow saying: “What in the world were the Pirates thinking” for the second time in a week.
I hope I’m wrong.
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160,000 page loads last 7 days. My God, where is everybody coming from? I guess I should be asking, what is everyone expecting to find? And thanks to those who emailed their support. It’s pretty easy seeing through Dejan’s “I’m like a bought-and-paid-for-reporter who promotes the org’s PR” BS. You’re learning.
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I’m off to bed – son’s sick. Not much is going to happen before the Commissioner’s Office opens Thursday I’m guessing. If something does happen, I’m betting we won’t like it anyway.
Related posts:
I believe this three way deal will happen…
I think Huntington is resolved to make himself look like a big boy after the reaction to the Nady/Marte deal.
Its gonna happen and its gonna be good for Pirates fans!
3 years of hermida is worth more than 1 of bay. even without prospects, that would be a solid deal for the pirates. people forget that hermida is only 24, 8 months older than kemp.
kudos to jake for getting wind of this before anyone else!
kudos to me for suggesting it at 9:28 AM today
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/07/rays-deep-in-ta.html#comment-124515486
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/07/manny-ramirez-2.html#comment-124516158
kudos to me again for suggesting the possibility of a 3-way involving bay and manny a couple days ago.
http://www.pittsburgh-pirates.org/forum/showpost.php?p=2681&postcount=111
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/07/manny-ramirez-r.html#comment-124171494
Jake, you are a classic PCF.
Spewed your beer in a good or bad way…what’s up with Hermida?
ESPN was reporting the possibility of Hermida and prospects to Pittsburgh, Manny to the Marlins, and Bay and a Left handed reliever (Grabow?) to Boston.
rob – bad way.
Any reason why Hermida packaged with prospects would be so bad (other than it would be the Pirates making move so you would obviously be negative)? Are there any personality or major injury issues? He seems like a nice player for only being 24 and with all of his arbitration years still ahead of him.
What is TBA 2005?
Kevin, you\’ve got the right idea – it\’s going to be bad (whatever it is) because the Pirates did it. The inconsistencies are amazing. According to Jake, Bay and Nady are serviceable players on a contending team – six or seven hitters at best – yet if Huntington can\’t get the next Johan Santana in trade he\’s an idiot dumping salary. Doumit is worthless and everyone knows heKevin, you’ve got the right idea – it’s going to be bad (whatever it is) because the Pirates did it. The inconsistencies are amazing. According to Jake, Bay and Nady are serviceable players on a contending team – six or seven hitters at best – yet if Huntington can’t get the next Johan Santana in trade he’s an idiot dumping salary. Doumit is worthless and everyone knows he’s terrible defensively, but he’s “platinum” and should be dealt right now. Apparently other GMs don’t have anyone with Jake’s evaluation abilities in their organizations.
I tend to think our players are better than Jake does, but whatever you believe he is trying to play both sides, as usual. (See, we could sweep this series or get swept on the first day, and an I-told-you-so at the end regardless of what happens.)
But hey, why trade for outfielders when Duffy is just about to make a major impact at the major league level, right?
Hermida is a solid replacement. 3 years of Hermida is worth more to the Pirates than 1 year of Bay. Hermida is only 24 and has Bay-type upside. BP\’s PECOTA system saw Hermida as a .280/.380/.480 hitter entering this season (20 HR, 30 2B) (he is currently at .275/.328/.444). While that is obviously lower than Bay, that is his mean projection, and he has Bay-type upside. Even at his mean projection, he would be worth $10 million to $11 million over a replacement player for 2009, 2010, and 2011. They had Bay at the same value for 2009 (although their projection is low, given his return to health). Regardless, even if Hermida does not develop into a star, he is worth more than Bay.
The only thing that concerns me is that his BB% has really dropped from where he was in the minors. As a 21-year-old in AAA in 2005, he his .293/.457/.518 with 18 HR, 23 SB, and more BB than K. But he blew his knee out the next year and has not stole any bases since, or show the same kind of batting eye that he did in the minors. But again, he is only 8 months older than Kemp. When bay was the same age, he spent most of the year in AAA. Hermida enters his prime next year. Hermida + a few prospects would be a very solid package. It would be a low risk, good-reward move. Trading for just prospects would have much higher risk (even Tampa Bays top prospects are not sure things, many a pitching prospect has floundered or been injured), but more reward.
pena – you must have a crush on Jake the way you present yourself. Say what you want about the writer but he’s been right too often now for someone like you to change my mind.
Pena is just sad he doesn’t have his own blog that hordes of Pirates fans will read. His endless diatribes on these comments sections are far more annoying, unfounded, and childish than anything he complains about in Jake’s posts.
Jake has apparently disappeared at an odd time. He is the first one mentioning the mystery team (even though he will not disclose that it is Boston). Then with every rumor in the world flying everywhere from everyone, Jake skips the fun?
mymrbig – I haven’t disappeared, there’s just nothing to talk about. I’ve already mentioned what I think is happening – the Rays called the Pirates bluff and are sitting back waiting to see if Huntington is going to sell short. If so, they are in line. I also expect more payroll dumped like Wilson. The tune hasn’t changed in Pittsburgh, just the names of those humming it. Between now and January expect this club to be as cheap as can be fielded with Nutting continuing to laugh at the fans.
How about filling us in on your apparent dislike of Hermida? It apparently seems as if it’s Sox/Marlins or bust right now, and if so, it’s looking like Hermida being the centerpiece. So, let’s hear your thoughts on him.
WFAN in NY claiming the Pirates have agreed to prospects in the trade. No names mentioned. If they no this, how can Pittsburgh media not know?
jake, a couple of reasons but the biggest being he’s a major health risk – too much risk for the Pirates to take on, imo.
rich, WFAN = useless 99.9% of the time.
Dejean was also saying that about the Pirates agreement to the prospects. No need to give your thoughts on him though. He was saying the holdup is that the Marlins now want more money (maybe to help cover the signing bonuses for their compensation picks?).
I heard that money is the hold up as well …… This will be interesting……
Looks like its dead according to Gammons & Rotoworld
I’m a huge Pirates fan in Seattle and my access to the team mostly consists of Gameday, blogs, and articles. It’s beyond me why this blog is so critical of a beat reporter day in and day out. I just can\’t take this anymore…I like to read a lot of different opinions about the team, but I’ll go somewhere else that isn’t so pompous. We’re talking about the Pirates, not foreign policy.