Ian Snell, in alpha

I decided to start crunching winter numbers and began with the PITCHf/x data MLB was so kind to allow us stats junkies to obtain free of charge.  It took me hours to write a trigger, stored procedures, and functions in MySQL just to be able to obtain the rolling pitch count per at bat across MLB.  Remember now, that’s nearly 750,000 pitches if you include tosses to first and second.

Never again will I do that in MySQL. 

When finally finished, I pulled the finished product into SPSS and, with my heart beating a million miles an hour with the new toy in front of me, I glanced at the clock – it was already midnight.  Ughh..

I wanted to give you an idea of what we will be able to learn from this new toy so I ran a quick crosstab of Ian Snell’s pitch count and batter events like strikeouts, home runs, etc, broken down into left and right hand batters.  Without more processing it’s about useless for the causual fan, plus all you stat gurus out there need to realize this is in alpha stage — there’s still a few bugs like the way MLB records picked off caught stealing in PITCHf/x data.

Still, it’s very kewl stuff – the kind of stuff you haven’t seen much of, although I’m sure someone, somewhere is breaking all this down (edit 2 PM: several folks have pointed out Retrosheet’s data set at the end of the year allows this. But is anyone providing it during the season – or before Retro’s release – without paying for it?).  Anyway, click the chart below for a larger image to see what I mean:

Realize the chart shows what happened in every plate appearance by final pitch count and batter hand.  So, for instance, where you see a 0-3 or 1-3 type count, that means Snell struck out the batter and shows the final count.  The same is true with 4 ball counts – they were walks. 

But the rest of the pitch counts are what the count was when the batter put the ball in play and it shows what happened when he did – like line out, single, home run, etc..

If you happen to wander to ESPN and notice Snell actually had 2 less plate appearances than shown in my table, that’s because of the two runner out events.

So enjoy.  I’ll keep fine tuning the data and then start throwing in pitch locations, umpires, matchup reports, etc.. and we’ll be able to break down results as good as any MLB front office.  Or so we’ll think, anyway.

Update 9:40 AM: The graph below shows Snell’s percentages for each event (ie: walk, single, home run) on each count, and by batter hand, versus the MLB league average right hand pitcher last year (although the graph doesn’t say that).  Now that’s kewl stuff.

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If you didn’t read KDKA’s little article on Robert Nutting, you need to go check it out.  One question and answer that really rubbed me the wrong way was this:

“Pompeani: “What is more important to you – winning or making money?”

Nutting: “There’s no question with the Pittsburgh Pirates that one, they go together, and two that this team needs to win. But it fundamentally is good business for the team to win on the field as well.”

What the heck did he just say?  I swear I heard some Jim Tracy, Kevin McClatchy double-talk there. 

But I think we all know what he means – to him it’s a business first, a competitive game second.  We all understand that. 

I think Mr. Nutting needs to remain behind the desk and keep his mouth shut because the way he comes across can easily be misinterpreted.  But, what do I know?