counter for wordpress

Happy New Year!

What better way to celebrate the start of the New Year than to post the Bucco Blog resolutions for 2009.  If you are here before midnight EST, then here’s a link (Windows Media) to the Times Square celebration for you to enjoy.

Blog Resolutions:

1.   Go see no less than 50 Pirates minor league games this year 1A and up.

2.   Stop talking about how much Dejan Kovacevic sucks as a beat reporter.  In fact, I’ll try hard not to mention Dejan Kovacevic or the Post-Gazette’s name much at all in 2009 since Dejan Kovacevic has such little clue anyway.  Ok.. did you get that?  I won’t mention how bad Dejan Kovacevic sucks as a beat reporter. 

3.   By the end of 2009 I would like to know the extent of every local media’s relationship with the Pittsburgh Pirates.  I’ll be researching that as the year goes on.  We all have the right to know if local coverage is diluted and why. 

4.   More in-depth game coverage at the MLB level.  Lots of folks asked for this during 2008 but I just didn’t have the time or the energy.  Now that we have a couple of prospects playing and better field staff around, this will be more of a joy than a task.

5.    This is only in the preliminary stages, but it looks like we’re going to throw a huge Blues bash for Pirates fans in September.  Hey, breaking the consecutive losing seasons record in pro sports only comes around once a half-century or so anymore so partying seems appropriate.  Besides, we’ve all earned it.

6.   Did I mention I won’t say how much Dejan Kovacevic sucks as a beat reporter or how bad the local media’s coverage of the Pirates is?  Yeah, ok.  Well, until these clowns start putting more pressure on ownership.. never mind, you can’t beat a dead horse to death.

7.   Change this blog’s design.  Many of you have asked for the old style like I had at MLBlogs and I’ll work on that after the first of the year. 

8.    I’ll do more Vegas style of reporting where I handicap each game in a series.  We’ll also keep track how much money we would make with a few well placed bets here and there.

9.   I’m not much into the fantasy baseball scene but I get a lot of fantasy players who say they appreciate the statistical side of the blog.  I didn’t do as much stat work after the trades last year because, well, crap is crap no matter how you turn it.  We’ll still be crap but we’ll start watching trends with the Pirates and other clubs earlier in the year and make armchair manager suggestions during the year.

10.   That’s right, I won’t talk about how Dejan Kovacevic sucks as a beat reporter any more.

Eat your cabbage first thing Thursday morning and maybe the Baseball Gods will throw us more charms than not during the year.

Pittsburgh Pirates: 2008 Year in Review

It’s pretty easy to sum up 2008 – everyone was checking everyone out.  The fans wanted to believe in Bob Nutting but had a hard time doing it so they sat back and watched his moves; Nutting’s new front office wanted to believe in the remaining management team and players so they sat back and watched them; and the players and staff sat back and watched being watched.

In the end, everyone lost except ownership’s checkbook - the theme the fans are coming to count on more than wins.

2009 brings little new hope.  We started with one impact prospect in the farm in 2008 and now have two after the draft.  Of course, every other club gained one as well so not much happened there.  Out the door went franchise player Jason Bay along with a few other complimentary pieces like Nady and Torres and in return we picked up some younger talent who have options so ownership can continue to rake black ink.  Yes, there is some upside in the group, but not enough for anyone’s hope machine to start going off.

At least, not yet.

Since player development started in motion late in 2007, they filled holes the best they could and as we read in Kyle Stark’s recent Q&A here, the year was pretty much used to evaluate and get organized.  So if there is any place in our entire system hope could possibly spring some life, it would have to be in player development.

If they get some toolsy players to develop, that is.

Our scouting department used the first year player draft to select a considerable amount of college seniors, a few riskier hard sign prospects which Neal Huntington did a good job inking, and took Alvarez as their #1 who immediately flipped his middle finger up at the fans in the name of money.

As for the 25-man, the year started off bad when Snell reported to mini-camp and was the only pitcher to not throw off the mound.  We speculated he was being held back because of a possible trade but later found out his elbow wasn’t healthy.  Tom Gorzelanny reported to camp overweight and out of shape as did quite a few others in our system which told the fans the new front office’s buzz phrase of accountability wasn’t being adhered to.  Then when Sanchez couldn’t throw long toss more than 75′ in the spring, we knew our season was over before it started.

But despite all the problems, the Bucs rolled out of the gates putting up an impressive 4.9 runs scored per game over the first half – the most since 1999.  But then the roof fell in – Bay and Nady were traded, Gorzelanny went down, almost every pitcher was being asked to tweak their mechanics each week, and the clubhouse became a living nightmare.  In the last 21 series (July 17th on) the Pirates played just .383 baseball and scored just 4.0 runs per game. 

The 2009 25-man roster opens with no less three position players penned in as opening day starters who have never played a full year of baseball outside the farm in Brandon Moss, Andy LaRoche, and Nyjer Morgan, with Jack Wilson, possibly Freddy Sanchez and Adam LaRoche all playing  in contract or pending free agency years, and a rotation, bullpen, and bench chock full of question marks. 

But you can be certain that the Pirates President has employed brainpower to manage the club on all fronts, the GM has hired the best possible staff he can, and they all want to win.  Eventually.

The problem is, there isn’t any money as our owners are spending lavishly on ski resorts, a baseball stadium and golf course, hockey clubs, scrap iron businesses, and who knows what else not named the Pittsburgh Pirates.

And the fans, once again, are starting to stir.

Ouch: run values per fielded ball

Each year I like to look at one simple defensive stat to get a general idea how each of our positions did against the MLB average the last three years across the board.  All I do is add up all the balls fielded at each position as well as the number of runs scored on each play and divide the number fielded by the number of runs to get a run value for each ball fielded.

For instance, if you look at the graph below in the position “P” row you’ll see that every time our pitchers touched the ball in ‘06, 0.04 runs scored, in 2007 0.03 runs scored, and in 2008 0.04 runs scored.  The MLB average run value of a fielded ball by a pitcher between 2006 and 2008 (all 29 other clubs) was 0.03. 

We also see that the total # fielded by our pitchers in 2008 was 254 and that was 54 more than the MLB average those three years.  When we take the 54 extra fielded in 2008 and multiply it by the Pirates 2008 value of 0.04 runs, we see the resulting +/- runs for that position was 2, but that’s not a real two runs as you’ll see below. 

rv

As you go through the chart a few things quickly stand out: 

a)  the exceedingly high number of balls in play fielded on the left side of the diamond; 

b)  that five of the nine positions (P, C, 1B, LF, and RF) were above the three-year MLB average run values, two were under (2B and CF), and two were equal to the MLB average (3B and SS);  and

c)  the high number of home runs allowed as well as the higher run value;

A few quick notes are in order at this point.  Don’t look at the +/- xFielding or +/- Runs columns and think they are facts – they aren’t.  They are only reference points.  That being said though, you’ll notice all three outfield positions were +42 runs above what the league average club saw so in that regard you can feel comfortable that we have some problems out there.

Now look at CF’s 2008 value for the Pirates at 0.17.  Remember the big debate about Nate McLouth winning a Gold Glove?  Well, it’s time for a little love for the guy because look at CF where Nate started 148 games..  0.17 runs per fielded ball which was -0.01 UNDER the league average club.  Sure, Nate benefited from playing in most of the year – no doubt about it.  Tracy started that in late 2007 and Huntington continued it in 2008.  Now look what happened to the OF corners - their values skyrocketed.  Ouch.. that’s not what you want to see.

You might not be so happy to know that a lot of the Pirates mushroomed values occurred after the July trades.  In fact, some were just plain obscene they were so high.  But we expect that with part-time players getting a chance to play everyday after being traded from winning organizations to a perennial losing club.  The numbers will come back around over time.

Lastly, the defensive problems the Pirates have are hardly new – they walk too many batters, give up too many home runs, and fail to make routine plays more often than other clubs do.  It’s been like that for more than a decade, so that’s not new.  But the trending up of run values per position is somewhat new – it started in 2005 and it hasn’t abated yet.  When you throw in all the youth that is going to hit the field in 2009, there is a high probability those run values are going to go even higher.

So what can we take home from all this? 

One, clearly we need at least one, preferably two, right hand starters in the rotation.  If we don’t field a league average shortstop and third baseman behind all the southpaws, runs scored is going to go through the roof with the imbalanced distribution of balls in play.  Simply put, we have an over-reliance on our shortstop and third baseman.  Rookies aren’t going to get the job done there so if Wilson is dealt, Bixler or Cruz better be ready.

Also, don’t forget we’re looking at a chart showing balls in play – not things like walks or strikeouts.  The fact that the left side of the diamond is fielding almost 200 more balls in play per year over the league average club is of serious concern.  Putting a speedier Andrew McCutchen in left isn’t going to solve that problem one bit – we need fewer balls put in play to begin with.

Secondly, we need better defensive outfield corners..  we’re getting killed there.  Now a speedier McCutchen with a league average or better arm might help to bring down left field’s run value to around league average but you have to believe that the other club’s will simply adjust their approach and put everything they can in play to the right side where we are weakest.  Remember now, our pitchers are almost all pitch to contact guys so that means a good MLB hitter can do just about anything he wants with the pitch.  Will it help though?  That’s another question entirely.

Thirdly, little values like at first where we were at 250% over league average (at 0.08) have to be accounted for.  Perhaps LaRoche or other first basemen last year simply went for the out with a man at third instead of throwing home?  But maybe they didn’t even have a chance (like with bunts). 

Lastly, we have to reduce the number of home runs allowed.  I’m sure part of that can be accounted for in the freight train that ran between Indy and Pittsburgh last year carrying all the relievers, but at some point this organization has to field men capable of consistently performing and the bullpen should easily be one of those places. 

Perhaps a little rethinking is in order if this club wants to try and squeeze a few more wins out like reduce the number of at bats by pitchers.  As a general rule, no starter should bat three times in a game unless the game is well in hand, and no reliever should bat unless we’re getting blown out.  We’re better off carrying 12 pitchers and rotating out of Indy for freshness and keeping 13 men on the bench.  Let’s face it, even a fringe MLB player is going to hit better than .150.  A six-man rotation might also be in order, assuming Dumatrait is going to be ready sometime soon.

But the fact remains, the defensive unit we are going to field in 2009 is going to give up more than league average run values and it’s going to remain that way for several years while more youth come up from the system.  All of this starts and ends with our pitching where, unfortunately, we are the weakest in our entire system.  If we can’t reduce the number of balls in play, it really won’t matter what positional run values allowed are.

LAR, PEW, and MLB

The Fire Jim Bowden blog recently posted a good article where they plan to keep track of all the winter moves based on WAR (Wins Above Replacement).  While the blog’s approach is hardly a novel one, it has influenced a new paradigm for Pirate fans…

LAR.. Losses Above Replacement.

That’s right, we can just as easily figure out which of our players, if any, contributed to more losses than a standard mail-order league average replacement player would have playing under the same conditions.   And if you read Tom Tango’s definition of WAR, you’ll note that he defines -2.25 wins per 162 games for a non-position player as replacement value, but we won’t be that unkind here.

We’ll use -5.00.  Why?  Because there is so much bias on the Pirates diamond…  from the umpires, to the lack of talent we field, to playing in front of hostile sold out stadiums all the time.  

Ok, so to figure out how each player did last year we’ll start with a baseline by throwing in positional adjustments.  Tango’s model reads -0.5 overall but I think that’s a tick unfair for our guys.  Since Doumit is being forced to take shot after shot off the mask every day, we’ll give him +10.0 LAR, since the LaRoche boys are putrid slow but glove what they can get to, we’ll give them +2.5 each,  Freddy,  Jack , and Nate have to be the worst middle of the diamond defensive triangle in the game so we’re going to give them each +5.0, Moss gets +5.0 because he shows up everyday, and Morgan, well, what the heck, let’s give him +5.0 just because he’s a clown.

So after positional adjustments everyone is +0.0 except the LaRoche boys who are both -2.5 WAR and Doumit who is +5.0. 

Now we add defensive contributions.  We’re not going to worry about park factors, nor comparing our players to league average rates or against their peers, and we won’t be using bUZR, fUZR, sUZR, RZR, FRAA, PMR, FPCT, ZR, TZR, RANGE, FSR, DER, or Plus/Minus *geez, there sure are a lot of metrics floating around* — no, we’re going to use BBE.  That’s short for Bucco Blog’s eyeballs which is about as zany and good as anybody’s elses metric out there.

Ok, so last year I would say Doumit was -5.0 LAR defensively (hey, he lost 8 games with go ahead runs all on his own blunders so that has to be close) and that puts him at +0.0 overall, Andy LaRoche really struggles on anything in or to his left so I’ll guess he was -2 LAR making him -4.5 LAR now, and Adam LaRoche saved many a shot down the line and many a relay throw from our middle infielders, but then he’s horrid at cutoffs and forgets what planet he’s on at times so let’s just say he’s +1 LAR making him -1.5 LAR overall.

Sanchez in 2008 was putrid at second in every regard, and Wilson made some nice plays depending on who was on the mound and how many cheeseburgers he ate before the game, but they both continue to be overworked because of our pitching so, hey, well give them a little slack and say Freddy was -2.5 LAR, leaving him at -2.5 LAR overall, and Jack was -1.0 LAR putting him overall at -1.0 LAR.

McLouth won a GG so he gets +2.0 LAR for publicity, but then we take all that away when we figure BBE because he stinks in CF, and we have to take another -2.0 LAR away because he actually thinks he is GG good in center, so that leaves him at -2.0 LAR defensively and -2.0 LAR overall.  Moss and Morgan are average corner guys so we’ll cut them some slack and give them both +0.0 and making them +0.0 overall.

Ok, so here’s where we are at before we consider offensive contributions:

Doumit:  +0.0
An LaRoche:  -4.5
Ad LaRoche  -1.5
Sanchez:  -2.5
Wilson:  -1.0
McLouth:  -2.0
Moss:  +0.0
Morgan:  +0.0

Ranking our players against the league offensively just isn’t fair. So instead, let’s rank them against themselves.  Sounds good to me.

Doumit and McLouth both get gold stars for 2008 so let’s give them +2.0 LAR each, and Adam LaRoche is right there as well with +1.5 LAR.   Everyone else gets -2.0 LAR for sucking so bad except Andy LaRoche who takes home the coal award of -3.0 LAR.

Ok, so let’s see where everyone is now since we’re not going to worry with all that ridiculous 162 games/150 games/125 games, etc. time played stuff.  It is what it is.

Doumit:  +2.0
An LaRoche:  -7.5
Ad LaRoche  +0.0
Sanchez:  -4.5
Wilson:  -3.0
McLouth:  +0.0
Moss:  -1.5
Morgan:  -1.5

Well, that leaves us with -18 losses above replacement. 

For pitching that’s easy – they all made us vomit except for Maholm, Capps, Grabow, and Karstens so we’ll just issue everyone who threw 50 or more innings -1.0 LAR except for Gorzy and Snell who both get -2.0, Maholm +3.0 LAR, Grabow +1.5 LAR, and Capps and Karstens +1.0 LAR.

So, that’s 6 times -1.0 LAR, 2 times -2.0, and +6.5 LAR for the four guys above, or-1.5 LAR overall.  Then we’ll add the bullpen pretenders who had less than 50 innings and give them all -5.0 LAR combined even though Beam got +1.0.  That’s a total of -6.5 LAR.

Throw in the bench at -2.5 LAR even though we gave +0.5 to Minty, and that means our overall total is:

-18 + -6.5 + -2.5 = -27.0 LAR.

So what does -27.0 LAR mean?  Who knows.  Who cares..  Suckatude is suckatude.

Scathing.

I’m going to miss ole’ Kevin.  Poking fun at the Nuttings just won’t be the same – they are too easy.

Some things just don’t make any sense no matter how hard folks try to make it seem real.

My goodness, another scathing report — Pew Research determined that the Internet has overtaken newspapers as news sources.

Who would have guessed?

Now if MLB would only wake up..

Speaking of MLB, the Baseball Network premiers January 1st and here are some of the channels you’ll find it on in Pittsburgh:

Comcast  181 & 124
DirecTV  213
Verizon FiOS  86 

I know, like you really care.

Q&A with Kyle Stark, Director of Player Development

Between supper and playing Santa on Christmas Eve, Kyle Stark repsonded to the questions we sent to him back in November.  For those that haven’t followed along, Stark had asked if we would wait until he completed his minor league hiring since some of the questions dealt with those positions. 

Lastly, I stressed in a post a few weeks ago that if the Pirates were only signing one-year deals to key development people (1A and up plus the rovers), then we weren’t taking the steps necessary to build a cohesive system.  So I asked Stark and he replied:

 ”I appreciate where you’re heading with your question, but we’re not going to comment on the contract status of our coaches.  I will say that we are only as good as our coaches so you can bet my focus is on assembling and preserving (if not improving) a quality staff.”

That being said, I continue to be worried that we are only hiring stop-gap solutions, albeit many are quality men.  But until the Pirates can hire and hold their key development staff, too much productivity will be lost in each transition and the entire system weaker as a result.  We won’t turn the corner until that happens but, as Stark notes about personnel below, we are getting closer.

Now for the Q&A:

1.  In your first Q&A with us in April you stated that the most important process change you implemented in the system was your new philosophy:  “To help players achieve their potential, while developing them as professionals, through a relentless, systematic, and cohesive approach. That drives everything we do in development.”

While strides were clearly made in the system, one might argue that those standards took a few hits this year: cohesiveness, the significantly high turnover rate of field staff;  and systematic, in that a few notable players in the system criticized their player plans as being inefficient, untimely, and/or inadequate. What steps are being taken to better inform players what is expected of them on a more consistent and timely basis?  And, what steps are being taken to reduce staff turnover in your system?

Stark:  Strides were definitely made and I would argue that whatever bumps we ran into along the way (and we certainly ran into some as one would expect when implementing a new system in any environment) still were heads and shoulders above where we were as an organization a year ago. The fact that not everyone was on board or some players were critical of their player plans still is better than everyone doing their own thing with no cohesive message or a checklist of things a player should be able to do that was not relevant to a player’s development.  I will discuss both items in more detail, but first want to comment on the good things that are going on in development. 

I am extremely encouraged with where we’ve come in about 12-13 months, which makes me excited about where we’re going in the next 12-13 months.  Whether it be individual staff members getting better, players improving, stories from the community commitment program, staff from other clubs complimenting our staff or how our players play to me, personnel within the organization in other departments recognizing the strides and expressing pride in our development system for the first time, external people complimenting our Spring Training and Instructional League workouts (one such person commented that he had visited about 20 different camps and they all lagged behind ours), or other organizations expressing some interest in our staff for other positions (12 of them which I’ve never heard of in one offseason … and many chose to be a part of this), I believe in what we’re doing.

As for the turnover in staff, it really is not much different than what we had the year before.  I am not shocked that not everyone was completely on board with what we are doing.  In fact, if everyone embraced it then the message was probably not different enough from the past one or not challenging enough.  We talked openly that there is more than one way to develop players (even though we feel strongly this is the best way) and that no one would take things personal if people wanted to leave. 

We used this year to determine who was on board with what we were doing and who was competent to execute what we were doing, and ultimately made some decisions that not everyone was. 

The fact that many people have chosen to be a part of this (both existing staff and new adds like Kremblas, Walbeck, Forbes, Treanor, Whitehurst, Brewer, Long, Skaalen (almost!), etc. who all chose our opportunity over others) tells me that we’re on the right track and don’t have to worry about staff turnover being near as great going forward.  Although, with as much interest that was shown by other organizations in our current staff, we may have to worry about losing people to other opportunities!  However, that’s a good problem to have and actually a goal of ours, i.e. to see Pirates throughout the game as ML staff members, coordinators, farm and scouting directors, cross-checkers, general managers, ML managers, etc.  I am very excited about the staff we’ve assembled in a very short period of time. 

I think we have good leadership in the coordinator group (one person commenting that we have a pretty good ML staff right there), a manager group who better aligns itself with our development philosophy, and excellent teachers throughout.  We’ve added difference makers at the upper levels, moved personnel to roles and levels they are better suited for, and been creative in adding people to complement our staff (ex. veteran baseball guys like Rich Donnelly and Jim Skaalen – who we lost to OAK as their ML hitting coach, experienced teachers at the lower levels like Gary Robinson – diverse background and long history of developing players – and Mark Brewer – veteran pitching coach up to 3A with coordinating experience in Latin America as a rehab pitching coach in Bradenton to help with rehabs and entry level pitchers, etc.).  Much has been made about “clipboard holders” being hired in development or people desperate for jobs, but I think this offseason shows a different approach.

As for players and their player plans, any player who is/has complained should be calling himself out since players are involved in the process and creation and player plans are designed to create accountability in the players so there are no questions about what he has to do to advance (it’s completely on his shoulders).  I have commented a number of times that not only does the talent in our organization need to improve, but so does the mentality and this is a reflection of that.  Some people still are struggling with the accountability concept. 

That being said, the player plan system has not been implemented perfectly in less than one year and has room for improvement.  I think we made strides in introducing the concept, getting people’s mindsets to change from a checklist of items that may or may not be kept up-to-date to a living document that changes with the player, and introducing it to the players.  However, we need more familiarity with the concepts (that it drives a player’s development and our teaching) and more consistent implementation by all staff.  When functioning efficiently, the player plan system will let all parties know exactly what needs to be done, what is being done on a daily basis to help accomplish those goals, and what progress is being made.  The mindset has been introduced, but we need to further application of being systematic in our development.

2.  Have you started getting baselines of some of the young pitchers at ASMI? If so, how many and can you tell us who has been there? If you haven’t started yet, can you tell us if, and when, you plan to start and who would be likely candidates to go?

Stark:  We have not gotten any pitchers to ASMI yet; however, we have laid the groundwork and have started getting our staff more acclimated with what ASMI does.  Like anything else we do, we strive for consistency throughout with all parties involved being on the same page so we’ve decided to make sure that all personnel (strength and conditioning, medical, pitching, ML/minor league) have a familiarity with ASMI. 

We had planned to send some pitchers during Instructional League, but could not work out the logistics.  Timing is important as the pitchers need to throw at roughly 90% intensity to ensure accurate results.  The next logical opportunity to try it would be towards the end of ST or during next IL.  Ultimately, the groundwork has been laid and we’re ready to add this aspect to our pitching evaluation and development processes. Likely candidates would include guys coming off injury, those with red flag mechanical concerns, and some higher dollar investment guys to get initial baselines established going forward.

3.  Can you tell us the goals of the new flat ground throwing program that pitching coordinator Troy Buckley implemented this last year?

Stark:  First, everything that has and will be implemented in player development is a joint effort and a commitment by us rather than an individual person.  That being said, Troy Buckley, as our pitching coordinator, has a significant voice and serves as part of our pitching “leadership”. His pitching philosophy greatly aligns with mine, Neal’s, our ML pitching coach, and others within the organization. 

Our throwing program, which we feel like led to significant strides made by a number of pitchers and led to the overall improvements in health (as noted by your question below), does include a flatground element.  This is no different from most other quality throwing programs that I have been associated with or come across.  Basically, pitchers finish their long toss session with a limited number of “pitches” at 50-55′ on flatground for daily maintenance of their delivery and feel.  Unlike hitting where everyone can get hundreds of swings every day to work on their mechanics, pitchers are limited in the number of throws they can execute. 

Doing it on flatground helps limit the stress, as well as monitoring the intensity, but allows us to practice our delivery every day as opposed to only on sideline days.  Also, the flatground routine is part of our progression of intensity from long toss to flatground to bullpen to game so that pitchers do not have to flip on a switch and go from 60% intensity to 95% in competition.

4.  I had heard a rumor during the year that certain pitchers had been prohibited from throwing certain pitch types. Is that true? If so, can you tell us what the benefits of such a restriction would be?

Stark:  Certain pitchers were limited in their pitch selection in certain situations.  Examples include a more general limitation like the amount of 2-seam fastballs thrown by younger prospects to more specific limitations like capping the number of breaking balls a pitcher threw (or limiting them to one of the two innings the pitcher threw) or challenging pitchers to throw fastballs rather than falling in love with their offspeed stuff.  The goals can vary greatly depending on the pitcher and the situation, but the main purpose is the same, i.e. our sole focus is on what that player can be (hopefully someday in Pittsburgh) as opposed to what he can be on a certain night.  Sometimes you need to sacrifice a battle to win the war! 

This applies to the situations outlined above in the following ways:  limiting the number of breaking balls thrown was done to force the pitcher to throw his change-up more (which led to a solid average if not above average change-up in Ronald Uviedo’s situation); challenging a specific pitcher to pitch with his fastball as opposed to simply rely on the change-up (even though we are trying to increase the use of the change-up throughout the organization) was done to get the pitcher to pitch off his fastball (and hopefully develop some more velocity which it did) as opposed to pitching off his change-up (which led to Tony Watson being viewed more than simply an A-ball lefty with a change-up who can dominate A-ball hitters); and the limitations on the 2-seam fastballs are done to promote the 4-seam fastball (the foundational pitch in basic pitcher development), which leads to 1) better command, 2) more arm strength, 3) not afraid of contact mentality (de-aluminize their thinking), and 4) change-up development because of the lack of fear of contact. 

Everyone wants to focus on that night and finding shortcuts to help, but our focus is more of a big picture, long-term perspective since development is progression-oriented.  Obviously, each pitcher is different and different courses of action are applied in each situation, but our core philosophies and beliefs serve as a foundation where we start from and build off for the individual person.

5.  Pick one: tools or makeup?  Why?

Stark:  BOTH!  I don’t know that you can get away with only one or the other. However, it all starts with tools.  If you don’t have some base level of tools, then you are limited.  You’ve probably heard the line about chicken salad (can’t make chicken salad out of …).  Tools allow us to have something to work with in helping players reach their potential. Those players with greater tools tend to have greater potential.

However, make-up can be the separator in whether the player reaches his potential or how close he comes to reaching it.  We’ve made it a point to spend a great deal of time defining “Pirates” makeup, identifying players with those characteristics, and developing those characteristics in our system.  The fact that we’re defining makeup indicates the importance we’ve put on it, but also the fact that it is such a gray area.  We all want to surround ourselves with good people, but that is not necessarily makeup.  Therefore, we’ve separated it into off field (character), on field (competitive), and baseball intelligence.  I’ve told numerous people that the two greatest things that needed to change in this system were obviously talent, but also the mindset.  This is where the accountability concepts have come into play. 

6.  It’s hard to have a Q&A with you and not talk about the potential for a logjam at third base with Alvarez, Walker, LaRoche, and others. Without divine intervention it’s hard to tell who will end up where down the road, but is it safe to say Alvarez has to stick?  If you say possibly no, is there any plan to get Alvarez some time at first base in 2009? And, is there any chance Neil Walker will start seeing some time behind the plate again?

Stark:  I think Pirate fans have been waiting a long time to talk about logjams of talent!  I personally am looking forward to the day when we’re talking about them at more than one position.  However, I can tell you that setting up projected rosters for next year was much more challenging than last year as we have more prospects at similar positions that need every day at-bats.  As for third base, we think all three players can be quality ML third basemen and also see a scenario where all three fit on the same team.  Each bring different things to the table (LaRoche has the best track record, Walker brings athleticism and defense, and Pedro has the upside).  The amazing thing about this game is that these things tend to work themselves out (which is why you need multiple options at every position), but it is a good problem to have. 

I can tell you that there is no plan for Pedro to get time at first base in 2009 (or beyond at this point) or for Walker to get time behind the plate again.

7.  Can you tell us about a few players who made significant ‘under the radar’ strides in 2008?

Stark:  When we first got here, our long-term goals were to obviously create a sustainable championship organization and development’s role in that was/is to help our players reach their potential.  Therefore, we needed to start to create a cohesive philosophy that would guide our process.

The short-term implications of that were to maximize what was here and hopefully find some “value” where the industry didn’t expect it.  I think we saw a number of those cases emerge this year where players either maximized their prospect status or put themselves on the map in many people’s eyes.  I suppose those players put themselves “on the radar”, but they certainly weren’t when we first got here.  Examples include Kyle Bloom, Jeff Sues, and Ronald Uviedo, none of whom people expected to be in the roster protect discussions; Luis Cruz becoming a viable ML utility middle infielder; Jimmy Negrych earning player of the year honors; Jose Tabata, Steve Lerud, Jimmy Barthmaier, and Juan Mateo re-establishing their “prospect” status; Evan Meek making significant adjustments after struggling horribly in the Big Leagues; Miles Durham, Matt McSwain, Moises Robles, and Tom Boleska all performing themselves into the mix. 

However, I think there were some players who took strides that might not have gotten as much attention due to the fact that their overall numbers were not as good.  These “under the radar” guys include Shelby Ford, Dustin Molleken (threw well in move to pen after getting chance to log innings early), Jordy Mercer and Brian Friday (competing at advanced levels for them), Angel Gonzalez (competed at 2A playing SS everyday), Michael Crotta (certainly not expected to be in the discussion to go to AFL earlier in the year), Neil Walker (on defense and power offensively), Andrew McCutchen (controlling the strike zone plus the strides he made during IL), etc. 

While we cannot create impact players, we can help all of our players get better.  There are a lot of good things going on in our system (which makes us even more encouraged for maximizing the potential of impact players when they’re added).

8.  Many old school baseball folks say winning in the farm system is an important part of the development cycle.  New wave baseball folks seem to place less emphasis on winning, especially at the lower levels. What’s your philosophy and why?

Stark:  This seems to be a hot button topic and one with very black and white sides to the issue.  Two significant elements of our overall development philosophy fall on both sides of the equation. 

First and foremost, the most important game in our system every night is the one in Pittsburgh. That is why we’re here and what we’re striving for, i.e. winning championships in Pittsburgh.  Therefore, everything we do in development is aligned with that concept. 

Second, we are not just developing players to play in Pittsburgh, but to win championships there (as mentioned previously) so winning and learning how to win becomes part of development. 

The question then becomes how do we win and teach players to win (develop players in a winning environment) while not getting short-sighted and focus on that night’s game as opposed to the long-term development of the player (the discussion above on pitchers and pitch selection alludes to this).  We feel like this is accomplished by our staff’s attitude (show up to the park everyday expecting to win), managing the game with development first in mind but winning as the goal of the game, and getting our players better. 

We talk about staff earning their salaries from noon until 7 pm and that the game is the reward, as opposed to the game being the focus of the day.  This concept ensures the players are prepared and that we’re doing everything we can to get them better, which leads to more wins.  However, we are not going to artificially create wins by holding players back levels, signing fillers to take at-bats away from our own players (who could be or are prospects), or making managerial decisions that limit a prospect’s development (ex. Pinch-hitting that left-handed hitting prospect because the opposing manager brings in a left-handed reliever).

9.  It appears you significantly reduced days lost due to injuries in the system last year, but is it possible to place too much of an emphasis on having players play through injuries? I’m thinking about cases like Shelby Ford last year who appeared to continue playing despite a hip pointer diagnosis, he failed, and then had to be shut down. What’s the balance?

Stark:  Because our focus is on what the player can ultimately be (long-term, big picture view), we are not going to make short-term decisions for a given night that risk the health of a player.  That being said, we did have an overall healthy year on the field in 2008 and feel like me made strides in overall health and processes leading to injury prevention and maintenance. 

Our new throwing program discussed above played a major role in that with our pitchers, and our strength and conditioning and medical staffs in the minor leagues did a great job responding to expectations and slightly different processes.  Shelby Ford’s situation actually involved one of those slightly different processes/expectations as he could have been rehabbed a certain way to get him back on the field sooner.  However, due to his history, we chose to shut him down completely, send him to Bradenton, and tackle the root of the problem rather than trying to keep him healthy to play.  This occurred after the diagnosis (as opposed to challenging him to play, him failing, and then us responding).  A similar approach was taken with Brian Friday when he suffered some back discomfort during the season.

10.  What has been the hardest part of your job over the first year and what are three advances you would like to see the system take in your second year?

Stark:  The most challenging part of this job in any year is managing all of the different (often competing) interests from all the parties involved. That is also what makes this job one of the most interesting and rewarding as well. 

I think the biggest obstacle we ran into during this first year was trying to implement a completely different system in a short period of time.  Most people suggested that I use year one to observe and evaluate before implementing any systems and processes; however, I knew there were certain things that we needed to do a certain way and we needed to get them in place as soon as possible.  We still used the year to observe and evaluate (staff, players, etc.), but decided to tackle the culture, philosophy, and processes immediately.

As for advances for next year, I think I would prioritize them as:

1) continuing to tailor our general philosophies to individual players (we made huge strides in getting some things in place, but now we need to let them and our staff work the way they can to better our players),

2) continuing to get all parties on the same page (both with new staff and another year of familiarity with each other and our ideas), and

3) expanding our use of other resources that were non-existent before and took significant strides last year but have a ways to go (video, charted data, player plans, etc.).

Kevin McClatchy out

I hope you got everything you wanted this holiday season!  One of my five year old’s gifts was his first aluminum bat.. 25 inch, 15 ounces, of all things.  I took him out and had him try to hit some whiffle balls thinking there is no way he gets around with that thing, and he nearly took my head off drilling them back up the middle.   Unbelievable. 

Lots of things to talk about so let’s get popping. 

Bucco Blog has learned that ‘The Man who Saved the Pirates from Leaving Pittsburgh’ is about to be bought out.  That’s right, Kevin McClatchy.  I don’t know who the buyer is but after checking a few places I’ve come to the conclusion it is probably the Nuttings.  I expect an announcement after the first of the year that will probably involve more than just Kevin being bought out.

I mentioned Jim Skaalen had been inked back in early December but as you may have found out reading the news recently, the Pirates didn’t stand in his way from taking the A’s hitting coach position.  What a blow, but understandable.

Kyle Stark sent back his informative Q&A and I’ll be posting it Saturday night for your reading enjoyment. 

As for Greg Smith’s Q&A, I was surprised by how many questions I received from all of you so it’s pretty obvious where everyone’s interest is right now – in our scouting.  Because of that, I asked Smith if he would entertain doing a live chat session three times per year for us and I’m waiting for his answer as we speak.  Don’t hold your hopes up too high because I’ve never seen anyone with this organization do a live chat outside of MLB’s control, so we’ll see.  In the meantime, I’m still picking through your emails for the best questions to ask.

I was hammered on my position with Doumit.  First I badly misjudged his value, then when he came in under my calculation I then called the signing too risky, and few of you missed all that.

Simply put, Ryan Doumit is not the guy I want to see behind the plate for the next three years and if I was playing GM for a day, I would deal him for some prospects while he has some value.

Like we should have done with Snell and Bay last winter.

No, the X-man won’t be considered for Pittsburgh unless Moss is expected to be out a significant amount of time and right now the org is saying that isn’t going to happen, or Nady is willing to sit on the pine for peanuts which isn’t likely.  He can only play right and he doesn’t even play right all that well.  Forget first with LaRoche on the roster, and forget third even though many of you continue to believe he might be able to man the position.

What we need is a left fielder for one year.  Pat Burrell would be interesting if his price dropped, but then again, too many other clubs would grab him first if it did.  There’s still lots of time left for things to shake out.

Goodness gracious, the Giants signed Randy Johnson to an $8MM/1 deal that could reach $12MM.  And everyone thought the Teixeira deal was sick?  I believe Mr. Sabean has lost his marbles.

And for all you Pirates fans who think the Yankees are spending outlandishly, you’ll be happy to know revenue sharing is alive and well and the Nutting family will probably be adding new ski lifts over at Laurel Mountain in 2010.

C’est la vie!

It’s hard not to mention something about the economy’s impact on print publications.  Take a look around.. the NY Times is selling their interest in the Red Sox, the Trib is selling the Cubs, and McClatchy is now jumping ship with the Pirates as his company’s stock took a massive plunge the last week or so.

You have to wonder how strong the Pittsburgh newspapers are and what effect all this is going to have on local reporting.  Times are tough all over, not just in print publications.

Happy Holidays!

To all Pirates fans all over the world, I pray you and your family have a happy holiday season!  I’ll be back Friday night.

How The McClatchy Stole The Pirates

[edit by Jake - normally I would just provide a link to the work but Cecil outdid himself on this one and I hope he aproves]

How The McClatchy Stole The Pirates
by Cecil Seuss (of Pirateball.com fame)

Every fan
Down in Pittsburgh
Liked baseball a lot…

But the McClatchy,
Who lived near Pittsburgh,
Did NOT!

The McClatchy hated baseball!
The whole baseball season!
Now, please don’t ask why.
No one quite knows the reason.

It could be that his head wasn’t screwed on quite right
It could be, perhaps, that his shoes were too tight
But I think that the most likely reason of all
May have been that the McClatchy’s heart was two sizes too small.

But,
Whatever the reason,
His heart or his shoes,
He stood there on Opening Day Eve, wanting the Pirates to lose
He watched Baseball Tonight, and frowned a McClatchy frown
Peter Gammons was predicting a pennant for Pittsburgh town.
McClatchy knew every fan down in Pittsburgh so close
Was bragging about who loved the Pirates the most.

“And they’re wearing their Bucco gear!” he snarled with a sneer.
“Tomorrow is Opening Day! It’s practically here!”
Then he growled with his McClatchy fingers nervously drumming,
“I MUST find a way to keep a pennant from coming!”
For, tomorrow, he knew…

…All the fan girls and boys
They’d wake up bright and early. They’d rush for the field.
So excited they’d not stop at red lights, they’d refuse to yield.
And the one thing the McClatchy couldn’t stand, were the cheers and the squeals of an excited fan.

Then the fans, young and old, would sit down to feast.
And they’d feast! And they’d feast!
And they’d FEAST! FEAST! FEAST!
They would start on Lube Wings and Primanti cheese steaks on whole wheat
Which was something the McClatchy couldn’t stand in the least!

And THEN
They’d do something he liked least of all!
Every fan down in Pittsburgh, the tall and the small
Would stand close together, and sing to the Heavens
“Take Me Out to the Ball game,” during the stretch in the seventh!

They’d sing! And they’d sing!
And they’d SING! SING! SING!
And the more the McClatchy thought of the seventh inning sing
The more the McClatchy thought, “I must stop this whole thing!”
“For all of my life I’ve put up with this now!
I MUST stop a pennant from coming!
…But HOW?”

Then he got an idea!
An awful idea!
THE McCLATCHY
GOT A WONDERFUL, AWFUL IDEA!

“I know just what to do!” The McClatchy laughed in his throat
And he made up a quick Bucco hat and Bucco coat
And he chuckled and clucked, “What a great McClatchy plan!
“With this hat and this coat, I’ll look just like a fan!”

“All I need is a partner…”
The McClatchy looked around.
But since he lived all alone, there was no partner to be found.
Did that stop the old McClatchy…?
No! The McClatchy simply said,
“If I can’t find a partner, I’ll have a Nutting instead!”
So he called in Bob Nutting. Then he took some spare thread
And he tied a Bucco cap on top of Bob’s Nutting head.

THEN
He loaded some bags
Stuffed full with cash
And the McClatchy and Nutting
Set out for Pittsburgh like a flash

McClatchy yelled, “Giddyap!”
And his private jet started to head
Towards Pittsburgh town
Where all the fans were in bed

All the windows were dark. A springtime calm filled the air.
All the fans were dreaming sweet dreams of pennants without care
But when they woke up in the morning, big news filled the air.
The McClatchy had purchased their beloved Pirate team
And to all the fans it seemed like a dream!

The McClatchy looked a true baseball fan, with his bright Bucco cap
And his partner, Nutting, seemed like a fine friendly chap
And the hearts of the fans were forever won over when the McClatchy said,
“For this team to leave Pittsburgh town, I’d have to be dead!”
He pointed to Three River Stadium, where championship banners hung in a row
And said, “Now this old stadium, is the first thing to go!”

“Why we’ll build a new park, that looks like it’s old.
And take advantage of revenue sharing and luxury suite gold
There will be bobble heads, hot dog shoots, and glorious prizes
We’ll have fireworks nights, perogie races, and drinks of all sizes!”
And at hearing his words, the fans broke out into cheer,
“We love the McClatchy, We’re so glad he is here!”

Then the McClatchy removed his hat and solemnly said,
“Let me tell you good people what I dream of in bed.”
He told them about a nightmarish nightmare where the team left the city,
It was horrific, tragic, and not in the least bit pretty
“But while I am here, my dear sweet fans, there will be no such thing,
We’ll have a beautiful stadium, and thanks to a five-year plan, a World Series Ring!”

Well the fans pumped his hand and tooted on their saxes
They didn’t care about funding the new ballpark with their taxes
The McClatchy was a fan, so he wouldn’t lie
And his business partner, Nutting, seemed like a swell guy

And McClatchy soaked up their praises with glee.
“And now,” he told Nutting, “Let their money come to me!”

But the McClatchy heard a slight cough, and turned around to find
That a little fan daughter, had been listening this whole time.
She stared at the McClatchy and said, “Mr. McClatchy, why?
Why are you buying our baseball team? WHY?”

But, you know, that old McClatchy was so smart and so slick
He thought up a lie, and he thought it up quick!
“Why, my sweet little fan,” the fake McClatchy lied,
“There’s a problem with baseball, all joking aside.
A small market team, simply can’t win, my dear.
So we’ll fix the entire system, and keep the team right here!”

And this fib fooled the fan. Then he patted her head.
And McClatchy got her a souvenir soda and a bobble head instead.
And when the little fan had left with her cup and her doll.
The McClatchy told Nutting, “We’ve fooled them all!”

Well several years went by since the McClatchy had won over the fans.
He and Nutting had made oodles of money on six five-year plans.
He snickered and sneered, and tooted his trumpet
“Why Nutting we’ll make a fortune with this team, move it, and dump it!”

But from three thousand feet up, in his luxury suite
He heard a noise that was somehow brewing beneath.
“Pooh-pooh on the fans!” he was McClatchy-ish-ly humming.
“They’re finding out now that no pennant is coming!
They’re just waking up! I know just what they’ll do!
Their mouths will hang open for a minute or two
Then all the fans in Pittsburgh town will all cry BOO-HOO!”

“That’s a noise,” grinned the McClatchy,
“That I simply must hear!”
So he paused. And the McClatchy put a hand to his ear.
And he did hear a sound rising over the stands…
It started ever so low. Then it started to grow from the fans…

But the sound wasn’t sad!
Why, this sound sounded happy!
It couldn’t be so!
The team was playing so crappy!

He stared down at the stands!
The McClatchy popped his eyes!
Then he shook!
What he saw was a shocking surprise!

Every fan in the stands, the tall and the small,
Was cheering! Without any winning at all!
He HADN’T stopped people from coming!
THEY CAME!
Somehow or other, they came just the same!

And the McClatchy, with his McClatchy feet standing in money,
Stood puzzling his puzzler: “Why something is funny!”
“They came without victory, they came through the losses!
They came on work days and lied to their bosses!”
And he puzzled three innings, ‘till his puzzler was sore.
Then the McClatchy thought of something he hadn’t before!
“Maybe Bucco baseball,” he thought, feeling quite sore.
“Maybe the Pirates…perhaps…mean a little bit more!”

And what happened then…?
Well…in Pittsburgh town they say
That the McClatchy’s small heart
Grew three sizes that day!
And the minute his heart didn’t feel quite so tight,
He sold the team to Mark Cuban and all was all right!
He brought back the joys! And the Pirates’ losing ways switched!
And he…

…BATMAN HIMSELF…
Michael Keaton, threw out the first pitch!

Doumit signing too risky

The primary news today was Ryan Doumit inking at $11.5MM covering his three arb years.  I had expressed that I believed he would come in at $24MM/4 and essentially what he got was $27MM/5.  As you may remember, I used a forward-looking valuation system because, to be blunt honest, I didn’t know how to value him with his track record using stats from previous years.

When I looked at his value using his previous three years of production, he wasn’t worth what he’d likely get in arb and I knew that wasn’t going to happen. So then I guessed he’d make about $15MM if he went through arb each year (for those wondering what I was smoking, I forgot to discount his playing time 40%) but I knew that was pretty high for him.

That’s why I used forward-looking valuation.

I wasn’t even close and should have stayed with my typical previous three year evaluation scheme (5/3/2).  Using that, Doumit’s true value was $9.7MM/3 and that means the Pirates overpaid him.

Yet my senses tell me that’s nuts.

Logically, he started 65% of the Pirates games behind the plate in 2008 (80% is what you want from a full-time catcher), his defense was below average and has been forever, as I mentioned yesterday his offense has been limited to first half play for much of the previous three years, and the guy just can’t stay healthy.

Also, if Grady Seizmore got $13.5MM for his three years of arb, Yadier Molina got $9.5MM or so for his three, and Aaron Hill $11.5MM for his, Doumit certainly fits into the Molina class because of his limited playing time. 

I mean, come on, Doumit is a guy who has a total of just 943 at bats in his professional baseball career the last three years (111 of those in the farm to boot) and is now being cast by the front-office as the club’s franchise player.

How friking bizarre is that?

Seriously folks, think about this a different way – Freddy Sanchez came off three years of 1,600 AB hitting well over .300, had played outstanding defense at third for part of 2005 and 2006 albeit he didn’t have the arm for the position, played below average to average defense at second in 2005 and 2007, and took home a batting championship to boot.

His reward for being a backup to Joe Randa in 2005 and then proving his worth?  $11MM/2 for his final two years of arb inked one year ago.

Doumit is getting $11.5MM/3 for having played +/- 60% of the time Sanchez did.  Sure, first year of arb Doumit would have taken home about $1.5MM or so anyway, but still.. that’s the equivalent for the last two years of arb of about $10MM/2 for Doumit vs Sanchez’s $11/2.

For what amounts to pretty much a part-time player the last three in Doumit.

That’s crazy.

I go back to my original thought about this signing – the Pirates should have waited to ink Doumit instead of offering him guaranteed money beyond 2009.  I realize he’s probably being paid a tick more because of his power potential, more because he’s now the ‘franchise player’ the fans like and he helps the org to sell tickets, and I realize there is more potential for growth from Doumit if he can ever stay healthy.

But until he does it all at least once in his pro career, he isn’t worth it.

The fans will eat this up thinking they got the best of Doumit, but that’s just not true.  Doumit got the best of the Pirates.  It’s a very risky signing. 

I saw all the minor league players we signed, some with invites.  There’s nothing there to get excited about.

I also read an article from last week where Dejan said the org was going to push Alvarez.  The Pirates don’t want Alvarez pushed.. that’s ludicrist.  They want him simmering in the farm as long as they can hold him there until Tabata et al finally prove they are ready for the show.  Remember now, despite what you may have read elsewhere, McCutchen just isn’t ready for Pittsburgh yet.  He’ll certainly open in the big camp during the spring but I’m sure he’s already been told he’s going back to Indy no matter what.

Nothing on the rumor front.. it’s slowed up some which is typical during Christams week.