Enjoy the super weekend. I’ll be back Monday night.
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(Edited on March 8, 2009, to show how ridiculously high the Maholm contract really is.) I’m starting to seriously wonder if the Pirates new regime has a long-term plan in place. The short-term one is easy to see - sign any first-year arbitration eligible player of value to a three year contract. Beyond that, everything else is fuzzy. Let me show you what I mean. The chart below is a crude attempt to extract data from my project software to show you where the Pirates are in their long-term cycle. This is based on my own player value assumptions as of the end of the 2008 season so that’s why you don’t see Karstens, Ohlendorf, and several other players I personally don’t believe hold long-term value. Plus, I used my assumptions to fill in some slots to give you some sense of where and when players come and go. You can make the same chart at home and plug in the players and time frames you like, just be sure to carry forward the known contracts.
No matter which names you plug in, or where you plug them in, when you throw in the Pirates current short-term model you get a jumbled long-term mess (four years plus out). Consider this.. what is the probability Sanchez and Wilson will still be here in 2011? Right, pretty close to zero. So plug in two middle infield rookies starting at least by 2011. And at some point McCutchen, Alvarez, and Tabata are going to come up so plug those rookies in too. Starting to get a feel for it? That sure is one heck of a lot of rookies running around behind our “veteran” pitchers the next couple of years, and at critical positions too. So if the Pirates are going to start getting more competitive along the way, they either have to do it before the entire defense becomes rookie’ville, or before all the starters we have with any experience leave. Take a minute and chart it out using your own players, then come back and read the rest of this. Right, the long-term plan is becoming more fragmented with every three-year contract signed. The Pirates emphasis doesn’t appear to be in building a long-term plan, the emphasis is in signing arbitration eligible players at their lowest cost value in their first year of arb. In other words, all we are seeing in the short-term plan is the Pirates leveraging their position to keep payroll as low as possible every year. Not in building a long-term competitive club. The Pirates often mention the Brewers as a model they like but they rarely offer multiple year deals until the second year of arb and almost always lock up key youth for numerous years to include two free agent years plus like Ryan Braun (8 years, $45M) and Bill Hall (4 years, $24M plus one club option year), whereas other youth wait for a deal at least through their first arb year like Hardy, Bush, Coffey, and McClung. Fielder is the obvious exception to the rule. Look around the game.. it’s not just the Brewers, almost all of the teams lock up key players long-term buying multiple free agent years. With position players it’s a bit easier than pitchers who break down more often, but clubs do offer multiple club option years to pitchers to keep them in-house, and rarely do they offer a multiple year deal until their second year of arb. That’s just smart long-term business sense. Not the Pirates. And the only one we did offer it to (or if we offered, the only one to accept) was Ryan Doumit who agreeed to the two club option years as long as the Pirates exercised them both in one year. How bizarre was that? Our long-term model is taking a hit with these three-year, first arb year deals. I understand we can ask the player for additional years later down the road but that’s a risk we shouldn’t be assuming. Throw in Alvarez’s bizarre six-years-and-I-plan-to-run-so-fast-it-makes-your-head-spin MLB deal, and we’re not getting anywhere. Until this organization starts thinking long-term, agents and players are going to continue to refuse to buy in resulting in first year draft picks gone in six years, key players signing away no more than one free agent year (which is when we deal them making it useless anyway), and player production tanking the year after they get their big money deals. It’s a dysfunctional cycle that has gone on too long and has to be broke. That was what I expected as a fan from Frank Coonelly being hired. So far it’s not working for anyone but the Nutting family. What’s with the Mutt and Jeff Show over at the Post-Gazette? In one corner they have Dejan Kovacevic trying to act as the good guy Mutt, and in the other corner we now have a blogger by the name of Bob Smizik acting like bad guy Jeff. In yesterday’s Post-Gazette you may have read Mutt’s column about the new regime’s plan with Eric Hinske and that they were close to a contract. I assume that article was meant for mass consumption via print circulation because Mutt tried to outline objectively why the Pirates would be interested in Hinske instead of Mientkiewicz, the fan favorite. Well, in his print work he does anyway. But not Jeff.. he hammers the Pirates new regime for carrying forward the same old “malarkey” previous regimes have been throwing at the fans for almost a decade. You see, Jeff believes Neal Huntington is attempting to deceive the fans (the malarkey) with his suggestion new hire Joe Kerrigan “will be a difference maker.” I guess that’s how you sell newspapers anymore… dual-personalities on every issue. After digesting the Mutt and Jeff act I finally broke down and decided I needed to really check Hinske out playing left field because Mutt made him seem too good to be true. As for Jeff’s report on Kerrigan, his analysis was just so wrong, so off the wall, it doesn’t deserve a comment. The sabermetric group seems to believe in Hinske’s ability to play either outfield corner. One metric even had him as a +1.5 win guy in left, of all things. My little Tandy computer had him well below average in either outfield corner, at first, and just average at third. So I went and watched some film.. lots of film. Trying to be objective here I’ll just say, Hinske is a poor outfielder. Think Nady in right without Nady’s arm, and for left imagine two left-foot Craig Wilson running around out there trying to cover the ball. That’s Hinske – poor range, poor first movement, poor cover judgement. I think the fans are going to be very disappointed in his fielding skills in left, but I don’t think they will notice any difference between a Moss or Nady and a Hinske in right. Forget about him in center. As for him playing first base, think Craig Wilson once again. A little uncoordinated, not quite sure what to do, but can glove what happens to be around him. At third Hinske looks to be more comfortable but may remind you of Andy LaRoche some with his inability to come in and only able to range hard to his left. I asked one NL scout what he thought about Hinske playing left for the Pirates and his answer was short and to the point:
I then talked to a couple of my buds around the Rays and they said he didn’t appear to be very comfortable playing the outfield but they were pleasantly surprised by his work out there. In other words, he stunk but got the job done thanks to the Rays ability to score a massive amount of runs every game. But like I said earlier, sabermetric types will tell you his numbers were better than he looked. Unfortunately, my numbers look like he looked. As for his bat, it plays in the NLCD where there are so few southpaw starters but he doesn’t know NL pitchers. He’s not known to be a clutchy guy, he tends to be a pull hitter and has a Doumit type of hitch hole in his swing, and as one sabermetric guru told me, if you look at his leverage over the years he doesn’t appear to be a good candidate for a team like the Pirates (tends to lay down when things aren’t going too good). It’s pretty obvious the Pirates targeted Hinske since they are terribly overpaying for him. Now the question is, why? I haven’t a clue. If I was to guess it’s probably because he’s the only one that would ink here who can play some left, lack of range notwithstanding. I’m going to suggest that Hinske isn’t going to put up the offensive numbers the Pirates front office thinks he will. I’m betting they are counting on him for 20 bombs in 400 AB. I think he gets 8. And I believe he’s going to be a fast starter but die a fast death, probably within 30 days as the “clubhouse culture” finally eats him up. If he hits better than .240 over 400 AB, I’ll be surprised. Now for Smizik’s column, as I said it doesn’t warrant a comment but I will say this – Joe Kerrigan and Jeff Andrews aren’t even on the same planet as far as skill. Kerrigan’s prep work will improve the staff for no other reason than Andrews didn’t do any, and when we factor in his willingness to yank game management from Doumit by calling pitches from the dugout, the results will be obvious from game one. So much for the Mutt and Jeff show. For me to waste so many words on such a rinky-dink signing is really, really depressing. We need more life on this team. – Aaron Heilman a Cub? Wow.. thank you Lou. We need all the help we can get. – And Maholm’s deal is????? Very odd this is taking so much time to get done, but understandable too. The fans probably don’t realize this but this contract is going to tell us more about the Pirates short-term plans than anything else they do. If they can’t ink Maholm to more than three years, they have trouble because he has to be one of the main pieces for the next cycle (2012/2013). He needs to ink for five years but they won’t do that because pitchers tend to break down. Look for no less than two club option years on top of a three year contract, but unlike Doumit’s where they have to grab both years in one option. Like I said, Maholm is the first piece of the puzzle to that next cycle and this is exactly why Coonelly was brought in. They have to get this right. Have to.. it defines everything going forward to the fans, agents, and players.. and prospects working hard in the system. – A couple of players seem to think McLouth will win his arb hearing if it goes that far. I certainly don’t, nor do many others I spoke to. Look for him to settle for less than $3 million. Short post while traveling today. Craig Monroe? Jeff Salazar? Luis Gonzalez? Eric Hinske?
Compete with Morgan AND Moss? Does that sound like yet another possible ”Brandon Moss won’t be 100% on opening day” red flag to you? Anyway, signing Hinske isn’t too bad an idea. I mean, think about it like this.. if McLouth was fed so many fat ones he could put up 26 home runs over the year, then Hinske surely would get 15 home runs in half the at bats, right? And his arm is much better than Morgan’s for left although he’s not exactly a great cover guy. I’d offer him a split contract (minor league/major league) since he’d be the corner IN/OF utility guy, but I wouldn’t hand him a major league deal. The roster space could be too important with all the youthful players that might get jettisoned off 40-man rosters here shortly. And does this officially mean we will not be pursuing any “better” free agents even if their price drops as time runs on? That’s a bit worrisome. – Chase Wright — the Pirates next John Grabow? He was DFA’d by the Yankees today. – Better move fast – Allegiant Air has some $29 flights to Florida out of Allentown, PA, in March. – So tell me, why is Snell being allowed to pitch in the WBC? The Pirates hinted yesterday they were on track to sell 1.6 million tickets this year. That’s rather remarkable considering the product and the economy, but it might also partially explain why they aren’t adding any talent too. The last year the Pirates went to the World Series was in 1979 and that year the Bucs drew 1.4 million fans. In 2008, the franchise drew 1.6 million to the park despite the fact the city had lost 35% of it’s population over those previous 29 years (PDF link which notes the suburbs have remained about the same size). Throw in all the MLB welfare check incentives for low revenue clubs that don’t compete and you certainly have a right to wonder.. What possible motivation does Pirates’ ownership have in putting a winning product on the field? Very little it appears. After all, the Bucs have drawn more than two million only twice since 1979 other than the year PNC Park opened and have averaged 1.7 million every year since 2001 despite fielding the worst product in all professional sports. And besides, 1.6 million fans.. 2.0 million fans.. what’s the difference? At an average ticket price of $50, that’s $200 million in gross income and, assuming a profit of 10%, somewhere around $20 million in the kitty for a rainy day. But wait, the Pirates are receiving more than that for not being competitive in the form of revenue sharing. So why should they bother to sell more than 1.6 million seats? Chances are, they don’t want to. As you saw in the New York Times link above, there are growing whispers suggesting the next bargaining agreement in 2012 should contain a revenue sharing incentive for lower revenue clubs that attract more fans. Funny thing about 2012, that’s about when the Bucs are expected to start turning things around. But if the Pirates started to see a trend towards 1.3 million seats sold, that would be entirely different.. they would have to scramble because somewhere between 1.4 and 1.5 million appears to be their break-even point right now. Never forget baseball is a business first and a game second. Thinking a bit outside the box, we have to assume players like Jack Wilson and Adam LaRoche remain on the roster right now for only one reason - to maintain the pace of ticket sales. Had Wilson been dealt to the Tigers with Bixler anointed his replacement, it’s conceivable the Bucs felt too large of a percentage of the season ticket holder base would have declined to renew in 2009. The same can be said about Adam LaRoche, although to a lesser degree. I’m guessing the Pirates “best” plan was to keep LaRoche while dealing Wilson and thus LaRoche would have received the money allocated to Wilson on the books. Since Neal Huntington couldn’t find a trade to acquire a young MLB-ready shortstop, Wilson remains a Buc and we now have two players eating more than $14 million in salary on a sure 90 loss club. That’s not good. Continuing outside the box, because of the above I would assume if we’re going to see Wilson or LaRoche dealt it will be after the first home stand (April 23rd and on). What the walk up ticket sales value of those two players is I don’t know, but it’s hard to believe it would be more than what we are paying either of them on an daily basis. Another issue that could be a sticky point is Maholm and McLouth’s arb hearings. I’d bet Maholm and the Pirates negotiate a three-year deal around $16 million, but I’m guessing the Bucs want that fourth year making it somewhere around four-years/$25 million. Funny thing, the trick to saving Wilson might be how Maholm structures his deal. If he’s willing to backload the contract, that just might keep Wilson a Buc through 2009, especially if Wilson is willing to restructure his contract as well (good luck with that one). As for McLouth, I think the Pirates let him head to arb and learn a lesson. They are probably offering him a settlement somewhere short of $3 million and he probably wants $3.5 million as a guess. They might find common ground around $3.1 but I’d be shocked if we went that high because there is no way McLouth wins his arb hearing in my opinion. Plus, does anyone out there really see McLouth’s name penned in from 2011 and on? I certainly don’t so if he lost his arb hearing and carried a tick of a grudge, it wouldn’t bother me too much. Many teams won’t even negotiate once it gets to the point arb figures are passed – you go to the hearing. Period. So there’s a lot more going on right now with Maholm’s deal apparently the trigger for everything. They need to get his deal completed asap so they will know what they have left in their budget to sign some of the remaining free agents. It’s doubtful we’ll see anyone signed of consequence until they know Maholm is ready to ink. –
God Bless revenue sharing, God Bless MLB.com, God Bless DirecTV, God Bless FSN Pittsburgh.. well, you get the idea. They have a lot more coming in than they have going out, that’s for sure. – Kris Benson showed a few clubs today he’s the real deal again. Word on the street is that Kris has his head back in the game and his body is cooperating with him for the first time in years. Someone is going to get a bargain. – Ben Sheets probably won’t be pitching in Pittsburgh, one source told me today. Evidently there is a notion floating around free agents that anyone on the Pirates roster this year will be cast for decades as “the worst of the worst” if the Pirates can’t break .500. Point well taken. He wants more money than we are willing to spend anyway but it’s very possible he may have to settle for much less. Even if he comes down to our price range, don’t expect to see Mr. Sheets in Pittsburgh I’m hearing. – The Bucs grabbed Virgil Vasquez off waivers. Yawn. With a ton of players coming off rosters in the next few weeks, I’m not sure I understand why we wasted our time with Vasquez. Eddie Bonine (Tigers) will be heading through the wire and so will Chris Schroder (Braves). Those are just two quick examples I can think of. – How classy is this act from Rocco Baldelli? That’s a half-page ad Baldelli took out in the St. Petersbug Times thanking the fans for their support. Way kewl. The Pirate Nation is abuzz with the dream of Adam Dunn roaming around left field in 2009. I can’t speak for Neal Huntington and his “new and improved” research department, but if you see Adam Dunn signed to a contract in Pittsburgh I would be shocked. I mentioned in my comments yesterday that one option Bob Nutting has is to hand our front office a check for $35MM – $40MM to go ink four “A” player one-year deals because then we’d only lose our fifth round pick in the draft since the first round is protected and the more “A” players you sign, the further down compensation goes. But Dunn can’t be considered for a team like ours where we have all pitch to contact arms because the amount of runs he would allow defensively would mean we could put a 10 home run guy in left field in his stead and probably come out ahead. Throw in his base clogging ability ala Adam LaRoche and we’d have a mess. Dunn is a sexy sounding option but one I’d bet the Bucs front office will pass on. As they should. But if they grabbed Varitek and three others.. – Andrew McCutchen got his ride pimped over the winter and was showing it off at Piratefest. Of course I’m talking about his new muscular frame. Funny thing about Cutch, some said he was doing the chicken dance in Georgia all winter to old Stevie Wonder songs while pumping iron. He’s a serious clown and his pop is even more of one, but don’t look for him to break camp and head north with the club because he needs at least another year to season. At least. – Again, thank you everyone for the comments about Piratefest, what the front office guys and players told you, and how kewl the experience was. Good stuff there. – One rumor ( <– read that again, rumor ) floating around is that John Russell’s days may be numbered. Some have suggested he and Varsho might be the fall guys after the 2009 season. Just a guess from what I’m hearing. – Fast fact on Ian Snell: Ryan Doumit was behind the plate when 532 batters stepped in against Snell in 2008, and our other catchers saw 234 batters step up with Snell on the mound. Ian Snell’s strikeout rates: With Doumit: 0.20 K/PA (105 K’s in 532 PA) To make it a bit clearer, if all our other catchers last year had seen the same 532 batters as Doumit saw, they would have seen 37 fewer strikeouts. Considering there were more than a couple hundred batters in each pool, that split is way high.. too high.. so high it smacks of more than just a coincidence. And what raises the red flag even higher in this oddity stat is that every single pitcher Doumit caught more than 200 batters with last year had lower strikeout rates, except for Maholm who was 0.9% higher. Plus every other year with Doumit since 2006, Snell’s rates were lower with him.. significantly lower. You might want to think about all that again. Then ponder this.. 17 of the 23 pitchers Doumit caught last year all had higher walk rates with him. Of the six that didn’t, five had considerably higher on base allowances when he caught them. The one that didn’t? Snell, obviously held lower from the higher strikeout rate. When was the last time you smelled a Mackerel? –
Pretty bold statement. – Anyone know where Randall Simon is these days? – Three weeks or so before spring training opens and we are just now being told Freddy Sanchez has yet to fully test his right shoulder. Ouch. And yesterday we heard Neal Huntington is looking to add another utility player and his name doesn’t start with Doug. Ouch. Excuse me while I light the candle at both ends here but, have we not been down this road before? The movie: Lame Gets Lamer. The plot: after everyone celebrates the Bucs at Piratefest, Freddy heads to Bradenton and starts throwing only to find out his shoulder hurts. He’s shut down and given an MRI, the team says he’s fine and they expect him to play, he tries to force himself to get ready for the season and hurts the shoulder more, then ends up throwing one-hoppers to first in the April damp cold. Some reruns are a drag. I’ve been enjoying all your emails about Piratefest and the caravans. That’s good stuff. Sure the team isn’t quite where we want them to be but you still have to stand behind the organization. I’m glad to see many of you are participating. Get out and feel gushy about the Pirates! While you can. – Numerous emails about media reports in San Francisco and other places reporting there is a trade in the works – Adam LaRoche for Jonathan Sanchez. And some reports even have us getting another player with Sanchez. How bizarre. I don’t know any possible way my post about that trade idea could have been construed as something I heard whispered in the circuit, which it obviously wasn’t. As it all unraveled I found out how the rumor started becoming a fact.. it was being pushed by someone in the Pittsburgh area who is a master at rumors. Needless to say, I’m learning from the seat of my pants how some folks in the media fraternity like to play hardball with others outside that good old boy network. Live and learn. And no, I haven’t heard any whispers about Adam LaRoche being traded. Or Matt McSwain either (you can rest at ease Rev. McSwain). – Jack Wilson dissed Piratefest and the fans. Hilarious. Gee, I guess we can count on his great attitude helping the club in 2009. Huntington needs to wake him up by letting Bixler break camp with the team. – The new jerseys are pretty kewl. Sleeves are a must – the players have been complaining about the sleeveless jerseys for way too long. And thank gosh all of McClatchy’s red is finally gone. – I’m pretty involved in a swing-and-miss study right now and thought I’d post the Pirates rates for the last seven years. The chart below shows how many opposing batter’s plate appearances had either 0, 1, 2, or 3 swing-and-misses over each year. 2004 is highlighted because it stands out as the Pirates best in the seven year span. What you need to focus on is the consistent reduction of three swing-and-miss plate appearances.. from 0.9% in 2004 to 0.5% (it was actually 0.49% but is rounded in the chart) in 2008. As you can plainly see, as that rate fell, so did K/PA while the team ERA also rose. This is important because the new regime has preached about swing-and-miss rates since taking over and have continued that theme by trying to add “power” arms ever since. Obviously it will be next to impossible for the 2009 staff to go any lower than 0.49%. Not only is that the worst performance by a Pirates staff since 2002, it was also second lowest in the game to the Orioles in 2008 who had a ridiculous 0.27% — the lowest of all 210 team staffs since 2002. Now granted, the overall number difference between a 0.9% and a 0.5% rating isn’t very many batters.. about 20 fewer strikeouts on three swing-and-misses over the entire year. That doesn’t sound like much at all, does it? It’s not.. you’re right. But the significance is enormous, as I’ll show you when I post the study. Also you should know that three swing-and-miss strikeouts are declining year-by-year anyway. I assume that has more to do with improved video, the push for moneyball’ish type of contact hitters, and probably the growing lack of experience in catchers. The Reds had the highest rate in 2008 with a 0.83% and they just broke the 85 percentile of all 210 staffs since 2002. But interestingly, we’re not seeing more and more clubs at the bottom of the pile, although the 2008 Orioles were quite the exception to the rule. Instead, the game is seeing less fluctuation between staffs and more hovering around the median since 2002. It’s pretty fascinating stuff. Lastly, I think it’s important to recognize the value of an experienced catcher. I can’t emphasis it enough – Ryan Doumit’s presence behind the plate has hurt our staff a lot more than any of you could ever imagine. And it’s getting worse instead of better, contrary to public opinion. Look at the huge decline in our stats from 2004 to 2005. Jason Kendall was handling the staff in 2004 and Ryan Doumit caught about 50 games in 2005. Sure, we had a pretty rough pitching staff in 2005.. I agree. But so did we in 2006 with all the rookies but we still improved some. Right, Doumit only caught a hand full of games. And no, it wasn’t all Ryan Doumit’s fault.. but when you see how much the stats tilted when he was in the game vs. when he wasn’t, you’ll get a better picture. This isn’t an anti-Doumit thing because I realize like you do we’re stuck with him back there no matter what now. But it is what it is.. some offensive catchers don’t hold much positive value when it’s all said and done. As I narrow down the performances across numerous stats by catcher experience in the league like the percentage of called strikes, value of balls put in play, number of runs allowed by the battery, and the like, you’re going to be rather shocked how much a catcher actually plays into a team’s defense. We’ll monitor stats like these to evaluate Neal Huntington and his field staff over time. Right now there isn’t any place to go but up so expect to see a rebound in pitching performances. If the bats come around and we see more Baseball God luck than not during the year, we might be able to make a run for the Astros and fifth place. – Nate the Great a bit dissappointed the Bucs didn’t come running with a long term deal? I think he’ll get one but they will wait him out to see if he was a one-year wonder or not. That’s good for Nate and good business sense. I’ve had numerous readers ask what happened to the Q&A with Scouting Director Greg Smith. I decided against it. For one, he hasn’t been as approachable as others in the new regime, and two, what can he possibly tell us.. that he just hired a brand spanking new area supervisor or two? Our scouting department hasn’t taken off like I had hoped it would under Smith and Huntington. In fact, it appears to be regressing if you believe what a few major league scouts are saying:
I’ve spoken about the challenges the Pirates are facing in their restructuring and nowhere is it more evident than in our scouting department. On the player development side, Kyle Stark has been able to add some experienced guns along the way, but in scouting we’re adding guys left and right with zero experience to area positions. Like Hal Morris. Or Chris Kline. Or Trevor Haley. To give you a better idea of what I mean, those three rookies represent 19% of our area scouts and they are covering 31% of the entire country (16 states plus part of Canada). Almost every organization follows one unwritten rule in regards to hiring scouts – they want guys with three years under their belts – preferrably having worked in the local area they will be assigned to - before they are handed an area. And there’s a good reason for those three years.. not only do they have a general idea of their job duties within that time, as well as a track record that can be evaluated by an organization, but the relationships they develop over that period of time are even more important. And sure, a guy like Hal Morris who was a player for years and years seems like a logical hire, but that doesn’t mean he can evaluate talent any better than your grandmother can. Plus, he’s been away from the game for eight years. Haley was at least in the game.. he was an intern in the Rockies organization. And Kline was a writer for Baseball America when Smith tapped him in early 2008. And that’s just three of the new guys. Now you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to wonder why an organization that is rebuilding top to bottom would even consider hiring inexperienced scouts when the only way out of the hole is primarily through the draft. Of all places, on the job training shouldn’t be an acceptable option in our scouting department. We just can’t keep going backwards in experience in area scouts every single year like we have the last five or six. Bud Selig and numerous other top executives in the game all agree, scouts are the lifeblood of any good organization. The Pirates?
Some believe Neal Huntington needs to perform a transfusion in a hurry. I certainly join with them. – I’m taking a lot of heat from SF Giants fans for my suggested trade of Adam LaRoche for Jonathan Sanchez. That’s understandable.. we always overvalue players on our own team. But unless the Giants organization comes up with stupid money for a Manny, I don’t see where they will ever get a better middle order bat for such a risky player like Sanchez. And one thing I don’t understand about Sabean’s position is, if he could have a LaRoche in a contract year where the guy is obviously going to play his heart out looking for big money after the season, coupled with the down economy and contract values falling, it seems to me they would benefit by taking on a one-year guy they felt they could sign and use a couple of years. Like a LaRoche who matches up pretty good against the arms and parks in that division. – Is Bill Lajoie around to advise Frank Coonelly more than Neal Huntington? – Join the misery club Houston Astros fans. Are they in trouble this year, or what? – Lots of folks asked if I had worked up swing-and-miss rates for more than the 2008 season. No, not yet. But I will and post the results showing each organization in a future post soon. – Two readers have joined on as moderators for Bucco Blog’s new forum opening in a week or so. If you know phpbb a little and have some time to moderate, drop me an email using bb[ at ] bucco-blog.com. Bet you didn’t know that the teams whose pitching staffs acquired the highest percentage of two swing and misses per plate appearance had an average winning percentage of .530 in 2008. Ah, the almighty swing-and-miss.. it’s powerful stuff. Right? Well guess what? The five clubs with the lowest percentage of two swing and misses per plate appearance had an average winning percentage of .510. Scratch that theory. What? You say look at clubs with a high number of three swing and misses ending an at bat? Ok, the Reds led all of baseball with 8.3%, but they went .457 on the year. Right, they are the obvious exception to the rule – they have some dominating stuff over there. Overall, the top five teams averaged .510 last year and the lowest five teams, which included the Pirates, averaged .480. Good job.. more about this later. Oh.. I hear a few whispers from the real thinkers out there suggesting to look at the teams that had the lowest percentage of plate appearances with any swing and miss in them. The ten teams with the highest percentage of plate appearances without a swing and miss averaged a .460 winning percentage last year with three teams at or over .500 (Yankees, Indians, and Cardinals). Ouch. No, double ouch. The lowest ten? A .530 winning percentage with three teams in that group under .500 (Reds, Royals, and Giants). Let’s take a look (SnM is short for swing-and-miss; home and away columns are the percentages of all swing and misses obtained by location of game):
Now that’s quite a difference. Look at the three clubs who were under .500 in the lower ten.. they are young and improving staffs many call to be significantly better in 2009. And, two of the three clubs that were over .500 in the highest percentage group – the Yankees and Indians – restocked, while the Cardinals will probably wish they had by this time next year. Funny thing, the correlation of a team’s ERA to their end of year winning percentage was 0.672 and the correlation of percentage of plate appearances with no swing and misses to team winning percentage was 0.650, so that’s some pretty strong magic to be sure. But not fool proof by any means. Look how opposing NLCD teams fared against Pirate pitching:
See what I mean? We won at both ends of the spectrum so it’s hardly perfect science. Sure, there isn’t a club in the division worried about any of our pitchers so they are up there hacking and that’s one good reason why we can say with confidence a Joe Kerrigan isn’t going to make much of a difference with our staff. We just don’t have the tools in the arms to get the job done. But if you are sitting back and still taking this all in you’ve probably identified the main grouping in the game by now.. the higher the strikeout swing-and-miss rate (column 3 in the above two examples), the higher the probability of winning. Sure enough, only two of top thirteen teams with the highest number of strikeouts ending with three swing and misses (all were over the league median) played less than .500 ball.. the Reds and Royals. That’s an 85% win rate. But you don’t get those kind of pitchers in a trade very often, and a smaller market team like the Pirates certainly can’t afford to sign them as free agents, so we have to draft and develop them. Like Bryan Morris. Ok, the other side of the coin.. here’s how Pirate batters did against opposing pitching staffs last year:
No rhyme or reason in any of it, huh? Look how much wood we’re getting on the ball.. there’s only six series opponents up there out of thirty-four that held us below the league average rate of 74.4% for zero swing-and-miss plate appearances. Just six. And we still couldn’t put wins together. Now that’s pretty sad. And check this out.. the MLB correlation of 0.650 for zero swing and miss plate appearances to winning percentage falls to 0.083 with the Pirates. Unbelievable. How is that possible, you wonder? Lots of possible reasons like other teams not taking us very serious like starting bottom of the rotation guys against us more frequently, or our batters having so little plate discipline fewer plate appearances get as deep; or opposing pitchers drilling fat ones down the pike not worried about the possible outcome if it is put in play; or a host of other possible explanations. We’re the freak show in swing-and-miss statistics.. no other club is like us. Not one. They all have balance.. we’re all over the place. Who knows the real reasons why. Watch out for the Reds and Giants pitching staffs this year.. they are going to surprise a lot of people. And the Brewers and Cardinals better find some help fast. But don’t think for a second any of that gives us more of a chance this year. Quite the opposite. By the way, you may notice that many of the clubs with higher swing and miss rates aren’t propelled by power arms. Many are anchored by one, but they are not the majority. Remember that as you evaluate the Pirates position in wanting to grab power arms.. experience in the league is like having a third plus pitch. And lastly, how many of you saw a few clubs with a higher rate of swing and misses on the road than in their own park? Now THAT’s where the action is. |
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