Grab the kids and head to Piratefest!

I’ve been enjoying all your emails about Piratefest and the caravans.  That’s good stuff.  Sure the team isn’t quite where we want them to be but you still have to stand behind the organization.  I’m glad to see many of you are participating.

Get out and feel gushy about the Pirates!

While you can.

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Numerous emails about media reports in San Francisco and other places reporting there is a trade in the works – Adam LaRoche for Jonathan Sanchez.  And some reports even have us getting another player with Sanchez.

How bizarre. 

I don’t know any possible way my post about that trade idea could have been construed as something I heard whispered in the circuit, which it obviously wasn’t.  As it all unraveled I found out how the rumor started becoming a fact.. it was being pushed by someone in the Pittsburgh area who is a master at rumors.  Needless to say, I’m learning from the seat of my pants how some folks in the media fraternity like to play hardball with others outside that good old boy network.

Live and learn. 

And no, I haven’t heard any whispers about Adam LaRoche being traded.  Or Matt McSwain either (you can rest at ease Rev. McSwain). 

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Jack Wilson dissed Piratefest and the fans.  Hilarious.  Gee, I guess we can count on his great attitude helping the club in 2009.  Huntington needs to wake him up by letting Bixler break camp with the team.

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The new jerseys are pretty kewl.  Sleeves are a must – the players have been complaining about the sleeveless jerseys for way too long.  And thank gosh all of McClatchy’s red is finally gone. 

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I’m pretty involved in a swing-and-miss study right now and thought I’d post the Pirates rates for the last seven years. 

The chart below shows how many opposing batter’s plate appearances had either 0, 1, 2, or 3 swing-and-misses over each year.  2004 is highlighted because it stands out as the Pirates best in the seven year span.

What you need to focus on is the consistent reduction of three swing-and-miss plate appearances.. from 0.9% in 2004 to 0.5% (it was actually 0.49% but is rounded in the chart) in 2008.  As you can plainly see, as that rate fell, so did K/PA while the team ERA also rose. 

This is important because the new regime has preached about swing-and-miss rates since taking over and have continued that theme by trying to add “power” arms ever since. 

Obviously it will be next to impossible for the 2009 staff to go any lower than 0.49%.  Not only is that the worst performance by a Pirates staff since 2002, it was also second lowest in the game to the Orioles in 2008 who had a ridiculous 0.27% — the lowest of all 210 team staffs since 2002.

Now granted, the overall number difference between a 0.9% and a 0.5% rating isn’t very many batters.. about 20 fewer strikeouts on three swing-and-misses over the entire year.  That doesn’t sound like much at all, does it?  It’s not.. you’re right.  But the significance is enormous, as I’ll show you when I post the study.

Also you should know that three swing-and-miss strikeouts are declining year-by-year anyway.  I assume that has more to do with improved video, the push for moneyball’ish type of contact hitters, and probably the growing lack of experience in catchers.  The Reds had the highest rate in 2008 with a 0.83% and they just broke the 85 percentile of all 210 staffs since 2002. 

But interestingly, we’re not seeing more and more clubs at the bottom of the pile, although the 2008 Orioles were quite the exception to the rule.  Instead, the game is seeing less fluctuation between staffs and more hovering around the median since 2002.  It’s pretty fascinating stuff.

Lastly, I think it’s important to recognize the value of an experienced catcher. I can’t emphasis it enough – Ryan Doumit’s presence behind the plate has hurt our staff a lot more than any of you could ever imagine.  And it’s getting worse instead of better, contrary to public opinion.

Look at the huge decline in our stats from 2004 to 2005.  Jason Kendall was handling the staff in 2004 and Ryan Doumit caught about 50 games in 2005. Sure, we had a pretty rough pitching staff in 2005.. I agree.  But so did we in 2006 with all the rookies but we still improved some.  Right, Doumit only caught a hand full of games.

And no, it wasn’t all Ryan Doumit’s fault.. but when you see how much the stats tilted when he was in the game vs. when he wasn’t, you’ll get a better picture.  This isn’t an anti-Doumit thing because I realize like you do we’re stuck with him back there no matter what now.  But it is what it is.. some offensive catchers don’t hold much positive value when it’s all said and done.

As I narrow down the performances across numerous stats by catcher experience in the league like the percentage of called strikes, value of balls put in play, number of runs allowed by the battery, and the like, you’re going to be rather shocked how much a catcher actually plays into a team’s defense.

We’ll monitor stats like these to evaluate Neal Huntington and his field staff over time.  Right now there isn’t any place to go but up so expect to see a rebound in pitching performances.  If the bats come around and we see more Baseball God luck than not during the year, we might be able to make a run for the Astros and fifth place.

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Nate the Great a bit dissappointed the Bucs didn’t come running with a long term deal?  I think he’ll get one but they will wait him out to see if he was a one-year wonder or not.  That’s good for Nate and good business sense.

Related posts:

1. Playing with swing-and-miss rates
2. On The Cheap: FLASH! Bucs grab situational southpaw
3. Power arm fun: a simple look at the Bucs pitching
4. Random thoughts
5. Swing-and-miss and…