By Jake, on March 31, 2009, at 11:35 pm |
Jeff Karstens and Joe Kerrigan have to go back to the drawing table because the young man wasn’t fooling anyone Tuesday. It’s one thing to have a bad day because of bleeders or flairs that drop in, but it’s quite another to have almost every batter that comes to the plate against you get a quality at bat.
Through just the first three innings I had Karstens giving up four hits on six seeing eye ground balls, the home run, one flair for a single, and two hits on line drives. Throw in two walks, a hit batter, a sac fly, and all this against just two starters and many lower level farm system kids, and you end up with little league numbers on the day.
But of more concern to me was our defensive miscues behind the soft tosser. I mean, how do three of four ground balls to the right side get through? Sure, they were hit hard but where was Sanchez? You’re probably right – just like last year he was probably shaded toward second base with a man at first and with LaRoche holding that runner there was a huge hole on the right side and Twins batters were exploiting it. Just a guess but probably a good guess.
And like in Monday’s game against the Reds where Nate McLouth lost a ball in the sun, Brandon Moss lost his Tuesday but McLouth happened to be motoring nearby and got him out of the jam. Moss also had a couple of other miscues out in right so I assume he just wasn’t feeling well or something the way he played. A few more balls falling in for hits in front or behind McLouth, more cutoff men missed, wild throws back into the infield, and base runners taking extra bases multiple times — all before we got out of the third inning.
And it got much, much worse after that.
Our fundamental play the last ten days has been putrid. And what’s really bothersome about all this is that we have yet to face a true major league lineup yet this spring even though we’ve sent ours out there on a near routine basis lately. We’re unbalanced, we’re out of sync, and we’re not thinking on the field.
We really have some deep problems. My season prediction made today over at pirateball.com?
60-102.
More on that this weekend.
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Neal Huntington, imo, needs to stand pat and not add players he has to trade for. We’ve already lost a few prospects over the last year who had some upside projection – we can’t lose any more to fill short, short-term gaps at the major league level which should have been filled with ownership’s money and free agency instead. There are simply too many gaps. I’d even send Veal back if it cost us more than a C- prospect.
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Here’s a recap of all the projection systems for the National League. Just looking at the recap shows one obvious error for teams like us - there’s no possible way we’re going to break 700 runs scored unless half the pitching in the division go on the DL or the schedule somehow changes. The recap also has us allowing 843 runs which is neither here nor there for me but I’d guess more in the 875 range myself.
So, 675 runs scored versus 875 runs allowed equals 60 wins. Oh, isn’t that what I had above?
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Guys like Sheffield and Pena don’t excite my senses one bit – we need defensive players first, then offense, imo.
And puh-leasseeee – no Izzy. Why not take a chance on Chuck Tiffany instead?
Lots and lots of rumors flying right now.
By Jake, on March 30, 2009, at 10:11 pm |
Finally traveling back home so short post. Bucs won another game late with a little bloop off the bat of Salazar after a rather risky steal of second by De Los Santos in the 9th with one out considering the Red’s Castillo has a cannon arm.
I didn’t get a chance to listen to the whole game so I don’t have a feel on Ohlendorf’s work but the box stats look impressive, for what that’s worth. I did notice that 58% of his outs on balls in play were in the air and that might be a bit of a concern down the road in away starts in some of the smaller parks. We all know that was his downfall with us last year as he allowed one HR over the wall every 7 innings or so (under 6 as a Yankee), and a couple others that nearly left the park we brought back in.
He’s still our #5/#6 starter (honestly only a 7th inning guy we’re trying to get more than we deserve from) even though the Pirates have labeled him our #4 — Karstens, once healthy, has a much better shot of being a solid back of the order guy and Vasquez is pretty intriguing himself although hasn’t proven it yet at the ML level. I guess what I’m saying is, regardless of his mechanical tweaks, Ohlendorf is still only throwing two MLB pitches and batters are still going to seek out his heater, so don’t expect a lot from him down the road. If we get better results – as we might early – then great.
I also heard Salazar hasn’t embarrassed himself playing center nor has he hurt himself on the base paths as he has been known to do. He’s obviously not the best utility guy to have around on a club needing power but I think he’s made a case for himself. I don’t see a breakout type of season in the cards from him (on base league average rate but more K’s and a tick more clutch), but he covers the ball well, he runs ok, his arm isn’t Morgan’ish, and it appears he’s at least thinking about baseball during the game. I also like the fact he can handle center which could put McLouth in left leaving him less exposed.
Tough call for Huntington here but with Morgan having options and all Morgan’s 2008 ”feel good” late season on base stuff actually costing us 1.2 wins when he was in, I don’t know how Huntington can justify his accountability theme with the other players without sending Morgan down myself. Hinske and Salazar are no-brainers, as is Monroe because we have no choice there. I’m guessing +2 wins with Salazar over Morgan based on the matchups, defense, and assuming Moss can handle left some away from PNC.
I also saw where Bautista had another fine outing – a blown save coming from allowing an inherited runner to score. I strung together a little video on his work the other day that is probably fitting here (very, very raw video): Bautista.
Oh, you came here looking to see McCutchen’s blast the other day? Here you go – Cutch Goes Yard! Good stuff.
I saw where we have “officially” dropped out of the Ohman race. Stick with Bucco Blog – we’ll try to steer you down the right path here. Also saw where McCutchen and Bixler were optioned with Bixler being a bit of a surprise even with his poor game Sunday. That’s pretty much a signal that Cruz makes the team but that’s even more of a shock so Huntington might actually be close on Baker from the Rockies, or some other player. We’ll see.
Speaking of Bob Nutting, I heard he infected the clubhouse with a virus and now everyone’s sick with the flu. Ok, just kidding – I don’t know it was a Nutting bug but the virus is running through the roster right now.
Ok, it’s that time of the spring when the hitter’s should be locked in or close to it and many pitcher’s going through a dead arm period, so we’re likely to see some guys getting mauled a bit more than usual over the next week or so.
Question asked in yesterday’s thread:
“You’re a statistics hound Jake, any thing handy on catchers in general and their performances on a day game following a night contest? “
Nope, nothing concrete came of a study I did on that a couple of years ago. It was simply too hard to single out causation — why did “X” player’s OPS drop late this year over 145 games when last year it didn’t over 130 games. Nearly impossible to run down the real reasons for change. But the season is much longer on a Pirates catcher because his 140 games is more like catching 145 or 150 games with the abuse he takes off our marginal arms (tons of body shots) and all the extra balls in play resulting in additional batters coming to the plate. Throw in a long, boring, hot season as a 95 loss-club and, well, 140 games is eternity for a Pirates catcher right now.
Another quick question:
“Does [the front office] stance with Tabata aid in Jack and Freddy saying they want to stay?”
Jack and Freddy can say anything they want, that doesn’t mean that’s what we’ll do. We’re two years off from having Ford contributing on a daily basis, probably three with Friday or any of the other hot-shot shortstops coming up, so it only makes sense for Huntington to try and turn sour grapes into wine by getting Wilson’s contract in a manageable state so he has options with him. Same with Freddy.
But don’t count on any of that happening because the front office has taken great pride riding the organization of the losing culture who Jack Wilson is the model player of, in my opinion. Like me, I’m sure they can’t wait to be rid of his sorry butt. As for Freddy, I would guess if he shows he can hit the ball again and Perry Hill feels he actually has value at second, the Pirates might approach him to add another year and get rid of the option. I can see that happening.
Just don’t forget for one second.. we are still in acquisition mode so if another club approaches us with an offer than makes sense for just about anyone that improves the long-term picture of the organization, the deal will get done. But those deals are getting harder and harder to come by.
Oh – and as for us dealing to get one of the Rays pitchers, everyone stop drooling – we don’t have what it would take to get that done mainly because the Rays can just stick the other guy in the pen if need be.. they don’t have to make a deal. Plus, why in the world would we give up long-term youth for a short-term solution that probably wouldn’t make us any better overall anyway? It doesn’t make sense. Instead, let’s wait until they bring up Price and then drop the other guy off their roster because he stunk the place up lowering his value – maybe then we could at least have a conversation that lasts more than a few minutes with them anyway. Get the idea?
Hmm.. Chris Carpenter will pitch game four against us in St. Louis. LaRussa is one smart cat looking ahead to Ohlendorf matching up to him. More on that later in the week after we hear how the Pirates set their opening day rotation which appears to be Maholm, Snell, Duke, Ohlendorf, and Karstens.
By Jake, on March 29, 2009, at 11:21 pm |
First of all, praise is in order for the brass of the Pirates organization. When Jose Tabata confronted them with a personal problem they dropped everything and then went well out of their way to embrace him. As they went into damage control mode, something happened that hasn’t happened in Pittsburgh player circles in quite a long time – instead of taking actions designed to protect the Pirates brand regardless of the consequences to the players, their unselfish actions protected the player regardless of any possible hit to the brand. In other words, the player came first which hasn’t always been the case during the last few decades in Pittsburgh.
That’s huge and signals a significant shift for this organization which needs to be recognized.
(Edit 11:38 AM: An email I received this morning said it much better than I ever could – that the Pirates embraced the man, not the player. That’s good stuff.)
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I mentioned in Duke’s last outing that his work didn’t excite my senses and I was looking forward to seeing him get challenged a bit more to see exactly where he was at. I found out.
This wasn’t simply a “one time poor outing” by Duke because his last two outings didn’t really excite my senses either. No, this was good MLB hitters taking apart his plan, his pitches, and the mental side of his game. Yankees hitters were sitting on his second and third pitches knowing he was coming in the zone on his first pitch too often (78% vs his typical 52-58%). So when Duke got 0-1 they loaded up on the second pitch hoping it was over the zone and, if it was, hammered it. If it wasn’t, then they loaded up on the third pitch and hammered that. And when they got a rally going and really wanted to exploit him, they hammered his first pitch knowing he was likely to come in.
Another thing I noticed was that the Yankees took away his ability to fight out of jams. For instance, when a man got on base they became even more patient at the plate waiting for their pitch and then drove it which resulted in a lot of balls in play hit very hard. That, of course, caused his defense to fail more often behind him giving the edge to the Yankees. Or they used the speed game to disrupt Duke’s plan.
Now our defense was far from golden as we had two missed double plays albeit one was probably never going to get turned with Gardner legging it out to first, and the other one crashed from dropping the ball before the relay to first, one misplayed fly ball that was catchable, another fly ball to the outfield that was catchable that our outfielder turned two times to try and line up on then it hit the ground right behind him, one poor outfield relay plus the dropped DP relay above, one infield throwing error, one infield fielding error, one outfield throwing error, and two balls booted. Not every one of those resulted in extra bases taken or a hit – some went for outs – but they exposed our weaknesses all the same. And no, Wilson being in instead of Bixler wouldn’t have made much of a difference.
With such a small margin of error making a difference between an out and runs scored - game-after-game - too many balls in play results in a marginal defense being too exposed which is obviously our problem.
So what can Huntington do? Limit Duke’s starts. He should only take the mound in favorable matchups which will more often than not be at PNC Park, and then bury him in the pen as the long guy in between those starts and give the rest of the innings to Vasquez since he’s now past his two-year arm recovery cycle (2005-2006.. +44 IP) and looks to have some upside if he’s indeed healthy.
As for our bats, AJ Burnett pitched very poorly throwing everything up in the zone with little movement and everything else well of the mark. What bothered me was that we ended three of the first four innings by hitting into inning-ending double plays – two of them by Andy LaRoche which makes me wonder if the eight hole is really appropriate for him. I’m guessing we’ll see him seventh in front of Jack Wilson, if not in the six hole some.
Hinske hit a home run and it just amazes me why pitchers like Burnett try to force feed their fastball past him when they know he can’t hit offspeed stuff to save his life. It was a 3-1 count to boot and with a green light, he hammered a fastball inner-third over the right field fence. Hinske is pretty much a straight pull hitter too so obviously Burnett didn’t have his stuff.
And other than Hinske’s home run early, we really didn’t dent Burnett too bad until the fourth when Doumit led off with a fly ball that went off Gardner’s (Damon’s?) glove for a ground rule double. Hinske then walked and when Moss walked, and Hinske breaking on the pitch, Posada airmailed a throw to second that went into center allowing Doumit to score just our second run.
Then Burnett’s pitch count and frustration unraveled him in the 5th. More interesting to me was what happened later in the 9th. Cutch singled with one out and went first to third on Jaramillo’s single to right, then broke home on Phillip’s contact which ended being a weak grounder to Swisher who was playing in at first, and he was out by a country mile. But left hand hitting Hinske was on deck in a tie game with right hand pitcher Jose Veras on the mound. I’m not sure I understood why McCutchen was sent there.
Duke had left with one out in the fourth handing the bases loaded to Sean Burnett and, as I talked about Burnett’s poor numbers with inherited runners scoring the other day, he saw two of the three come around. This time Burnett can lay the blame on Bixler since Cano’s ground ball was fielded cleanly by Adam LaRoche and he went to Bixler for the force at second, but Bixler’s relay went past LaRoche allowing the two to score. But that’s the type of stuff that happens behind soft tossers with marginal defenders – weird stuff, all the time.
Jason Davis? He walked the first batter he faced in each of the 7th and 8th innings but otherwise seemed to get a few broken bats, a few outs, and a couple of hits. Nothing impressive but it was odd seeing him come out for just a few innings instead of getting innings and being stretched out for a starter role. I assume that means he is officially back being a 7th inning guy now.
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Uh, anyone know why Doumit left the game so early?
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Uh, anyone know what’s up with Jack Wilson and his supposed “bruised” knee? Hmm..
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So who are we going to have to give up for Veal since Huntington seems to think we need to keep him around? How about Brian Holliday?
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Now that the cat’s out of the bag, Joe Kerrigan removed the two-seamer from Ross Ohlendorf’s arsenal leaving him throwing gas with the four-seamer. Kerrigan evidently feels there is enough late movement on the pitch to justify Ohlendorf being relieved of the two-seamer which he was said not to be able to control in the Yankees organization.
But that’s a curious move because by my book, Ohlendorf had been throwing more first pitch strikes with his fastball than league average and was well above the league average in percentage of fastballs in the zone. Where Ohlendorf has always had problems is getting his secondary stuff (slider/change) over the plate for strikes and so batters simply keyed on his fastball and wailed it. He’s primarily a two-pitch pitcher – fastball/slider with a few change ups here and there.
It will be interesting to see how much more heat he has added using the four-seamer (96+ ?) and how well he can paint with it because if he leaves it over the plate, his .390+ on base average allowed is going to skyrocket.
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Neal Huntington’s radio show didn’t provide any clues other than he now admits his bullpen is unstable. Maybe I’ve missed that acknowledgement in previous media reports, I don’t know. And I agree, he has a mess out there but it’s better to sort through all these guys now than in 2010.
But one statement did stun me:
“I’m a catching oriented defensive guy.”
Hmm.. he sure hasn’t shown that — he still has Doumit behind the dish despite the fact his staff isn’t all that crazy about throwing to him (not to mention his poor game management skills and his propensity for injury) and he let Chavez get away who would have been a huge asset to have with Kerrigan coming on board. I’d like to see him target and get a young defensive catcher who can call 140 games per year for the next six years plus.
I did like the fact he mentioned McCutchen was too focused on hitting only fastballs which is resulting in too much pull-side hitting because I’ve stated the same thing here. We’ve talked about the fact he’s not taking advantage of the whole field by hitting off speed stuff away – especially with men on he has to move - and therefore a knock against him from becoming the “complete offensive player he needs to be. Bixler tends to be that way too, although he’s more likely to drive a hook into right to move a runner than McCutchen has shown so far. Think winter ball in Mexico this year Mr. McCutchen.
The other things he mentioned we discussed were probably going to happen here the other day – Morgan gets the nod but from his words it appears he’ll be on a short leash – as he should be; that he’s comfortable with Moss in left although I’d bet he meant away from PNC for right now; and he’s comfortable with Hinske in right vs right hand pitching.
He also seemed to debunk the two recent Post-Gazette rumors – that we were talking with Ohman and an extension for Jack Wilson.
Here’s his show if you want to listen to it: Huntington show 03-29-09
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Just two days left to enter our March contest for a chance to win some cash.
By Jake, on March 29, 2009, at 12:42 am |
JR called my name and I ran like a two-year-old over to him to see what he wanted when I heard him say – “grab your glove, you’re going out to play right field next half inning.”
“Yes SIR,” I responded as my knees bgan to shake uncontrollably.
Finally it was D-Time.. I ran out with the group being careful not to run too fast or look at any of the faces in the stands, but I could hear them talking about me before I even reached the outfield grass. The comments were flying — “Look at that kid.. he can’t be more than 15!” — “He doesn’t have a name on his jersey — #50?? – he can’t be anyone special!” — “Hey Peachfuzzzzzzz! Come here baby!”
I honestly thought I was going to heave by the time I reached right. Next thing I knew, pitches were flying left and right, balls were in play, and before I could even get my stomach settled down, the inning was over and trotted back in.
Gary Varsho told me I was up 4th and to grab my bat and I immediately turned to look and see who was on the mound and saw Brad Lidge and almost had a heart attack. My God, they can’t possibly want me to get in the box against a guy who can dial it up to 98 mph – Hell, I’m ONLY 19 and hit just a buck eighty-eight in rookie ball, are they crazy? – I remember thinking as I grabbed my stick.
I sat down on the pine and wondered if the first three batters would make outs and all I would have to do is stand on the on-deck circle. I can handle that, I thought.
Then IT happened.. AC doubled to left-center with one out and I knew I was going to get my first AB against pro pitching. My gut turned inside-out, the game sped up so fast it seemed like Negrych was in the box for two seconds, and then it was my turn.
So I stepped in the box and before I could even find Lidge’s arm slot the ball wisked past the plate – thankfully well away from me. My heart was beating faster as I saw Cutch tipping me to an inside location for the second pitch and all I could do is watch it float by I was so scared – one minute it was coming straight at me, the next thing it darted about two foot down and away.
I backed out of the box a second and took a couple of practice swings trying to stop the flow of piss wanting to exit my bladder when I heard the home plate ump say let’s go.. so I stepped back in. The next pitch stunned me – high heat, head high.. my knees buckled just a bit but I stood in there determined to let it take off my nose if it hit me in the face.
I waited for the fourth pitch noticing Cutch tipping from second an inside location again and my bladder about opened right there.. I saw the ball out of Lidge’s hand for the first time and it was coming right at my crotch so I bent back just a bit hoping it would miss and then I saw it tail away about two foot and out of the zone.
Whew! I thought my baby-making days were over right there.
I stepped back out hearing the ump call a 2-2 count and Lidge released a fastball slow enough for me to track so I started to swing, but it was well low and in the dirt.
Now I was getting cocky.. I was starting to see the ball, I was actually trying to swing the bat which seemed to make Mr. Lidge a bit upset, so I guessed fastball on the 3-2 pitch getting ready to head my way..
Heater.. away.. I saw it well.. the damn thing was low and outside and nearly painted but I played it off like I did in high school by starting my “damn I’m glad to be alive” trot to first praying the ump didn’t ring me up for leaving the box too early when I heard “Ball Four!”
There I was.. on first with Mr. Hill telling me great patience (if he only knew), and to watch the ball and the runner in front of me when a couple of pitches later Garrett Jones hammered a Lidge offering over the fence allowing me to run the pro bases for the first time in my career.
When I got back to the dugout I was mobbed even though I didn’t hit the home run.. they knew what I just went through, they knew I was scared to death and acting the best I could, and they were all proud and willing to share that with me.
Including JR who told me – “You just had your rookie hazing kid. Good job.”
I walked away with a smile on my face thinking that wasn’t too hard and licking my chops thinking about first round of A-ball pitchers I was going to maul.
The batter? Robbie Grossman- fresh out of high school and having graduated from rookie ball a month or so later. No, that’s not his story – it’s one I made up as I watched the young man. It was obvious the game was running faster than his mind could control but he did seem to start getting a little more comfortable toward the end of the AB – even looked a bit mature. He did a great job.
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How about Andrew McCutchen? 5 for 5, three doubles, a home run, three runs, and 2 rbis. WOW. Ok, the single was on a throwing error but, hey, it would have been bang-bang anyway so the hit was legit.
And I swear I see some Ernie Banks in McCutchen’s swing. Cutch doesn’t have Bank’s head tuck and Banks didn’t use his front foot for timing, but Cutch has the exact same swing pattern, exact same right elbow wing in a quiet stance, and they seem to have the exact same ”quick” hip/torso rotation. I’m no pro in swing mechanics but there sure is a lot of similarities from what I remember about Banks watching Cutch.
Anyway, Cutch sat patiently in the box waiting for Moyer’s fastball and when he got the pitch it always seemed to be right down broadway and he wasted no time squaring up on it. Only one of Cutch’s hits were off an offspeed pitch – a curve that Moyer hung knee high middle/out Cutch went out and drilled. Every ball was hit hard off him and his home run was a no doubter even with wind gusts near 40 mph.
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Snell was effective and wild.. maybe better put, effectively wild. More than 10% of his pitches were wild as hell, he threw about half as many balls as strikes through five, hit one in the middle of his back, and every batter he started off 1-0 in the first three innings walked except one which ended with a sac bunt. He wasn’t exactly facing a tough lineup and those that were in were beating the ball on the ground swinging over what seemed to be his two-seamer and a change.
I also noticed that Snell was using a slight pause when he raised his plant foot and his hands met that knee in the middle of the windup (think Oliver Perez without the long pause). Each time he paused he seemed to be wild but when he found the plate with the pause he appeared to have more life on the ball for some reason. Maybe it was just an illusion? I’ll have to watch him in a real game to see if he does it then.
And man-oh-man, did Howard hit a bomb off Snell. On a 1-2 count Snell tried to go in with a belt high fastball and Howard was waiting for it. If it wasn’t hit 500′, it couldn’t have been far off. Snell lost his composure after the bomb and walked Jenkins then hit Brunett in the back with the first pitch to him. He then recovered against Giles after starting him off 1-0 and got him to ground to short.
But that exchange with Howard reminded me of Snell’s problems in 2007 and 2008 – he threw too many fastballs that grabbed too much of the plate on two-strike counts and batters were waiting for him. Not once did I see him bounce a slider in the dirt today – not once.
It was also obvious Jaramillo and Snell weren’t in sync most of the game as Snell kept backing out on him. But Jaramillo helped Snell along by removing three baserunners – he picked Giles off first whose secondary lead took him halfway to second for some reason, he threw out Rollins at second base who got a late jump off Bautista but his throw was perfectly on the money which it had to be to get him, and when Ruiz doubled to leadoff the third and Moyer layed down a bunt right in front of the plate, Ruiz broke for third and was out by a country mile. Sloppy (surreal?) baserunning decisions in the game by the Phillies.
I also watched Craig Monroe take a strike three count looking with two men on and no outs, and this was the second or third time I’ve seen him do that exact same thing. He’s looking more and more like the anti-clutch strikeout king who might display some power when he’s at the plate with nobody on. And you should have seen him leave his feet for a fly ball Ruiz hit leading off the 4th inning. Thank God McCutchen was motoring his way because the ball skipped past Monroe heading toward the wall and Cruz might have had a triple or better. Ok, there was a lot of wind but Monroe’s left his feet before this spring..
Salazar didn’t impress me, Vazquez didn’t impress me, Jones didn’t impress me even with the home run (I’d take my chances on Salazar between him and Jones even though he seems to have a temper), and Bixler continues to try and be the little engine that could despite the odds against him. He’s turned around pretty quick and is getting good reads and making good plays for not knowing the league batters that well. Obviously Perry Hill’s instruction isn’t hurting that young man one bit.
It was a good game that seemed too surreal knowing Bob Nutting was at the game watching intently and this was JR’s old organization. Moyer never pitches up in the zone like we saw today and what team in their right mind plays 41 year old Matt Stairs in left field with a 30 mph wind blowing out? Still, Cutch says thank you Charlie Manuel, I’ll take those near misses by Stairs.
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Talking about having blinders on, whew. It’s sad to hear a preview that far off base from Charlie. Some day in the near future I’ll address the larger obvious off-the-wall comments like Snell being the only one possible to have a good year, the comment about how it took Friedman two and one-half years to “fix” the Rays, the fact that he felt it doesn’t “matter” who pitches the sixth inning on a 95-loss team, and that he thinks Coonelly and Huntington have “got it right” so far.
Goodness, gracious.
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Bucs negotiating with Wilson to keep him? Yeah right – and cows fly. How about negotiating with Wilson to reduce his year-to-year contract value plus add a year or two so we can actually deal him since he’s threatened to retire so many times? Oh, and to add a million qualifiers like playing time..
Want to keep Jack Wilson.. oh my, the stories we’re told.
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The Pittsburgh-Post Gazette announced Friday that they are discontinuing circulation Monday – Saturday outside their core five-county area and will begin offering a digital version of their newspaper online for subscribers. When asked today if they were planning to put all online content behind a pay wall, their city desk replied “No – not yet.”
I’ve been warning Pirates’ fans that is going to eventually happen and I suggested by spring training of 2010 the only way you’ll be able to read Dejan’s daily beat material online may be if you pay. The same is sure to be true with Pirates online coverage at the Trib, if they are even around then, or Perrotto’s work at PiratesReport, although he certainly has the edge to remain outside of a pay wall since the Pirates majority owner is indirectly paying his salary.
Mark. My. Words. The entire landscape is changing.
Fast.
It’s a great time to be an independent blogger.
By Jake, on March 27, 2009, at 11:13 pm |
Slow day plus I’m traveling so this will be a quickie. There is some talk in the circuit about a trade involving a couple of players but everything I’ve heard suggests it’s just pookie at this point because we’re wanting a lot for our guys – especially starting pitching, which seems to be the main focus. Don’t expect anything to happen until July although we might see an addition from players dropped off rosters. If I hear anything concrete I’ll pass it on.
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Jays game sounded pretty uninteresting – a few errors and miscues here, a couple of nice defensive plays there, balls put in the play on the wrong side of the diamond again, Morgan showing why he shouldn’t start against a right handed pitcher with his two strikeouts (can he even hit a slider or changeup?), Moss and Hinske starting to look more comfortable in the box every AB, clutch opportunities not taken advantage of, Vasquez finding the zone late in most AB’s, Burnett getting hit hard by a left hand batter, Grabow watching one go yard on him, Hansen unable to find the plate, and Yates throwing gas. Oh, and then there was this guy called Halladay..
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I haven’t heard anything about Gorzelanny since the 21st and that day he didn’t throw many pitches. Perhaps there has been some news out there about him but I’ve missed it. If so, leave a comment – if nobody does I’ll inquire.
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I think the Bucs have to break with Ohlendorf and Karstens in the rotation and that sets up a troubling scenario when we get back to Pittsburgh. More on that later in the week.
Morgan is probably going to hold on to his LF slot – albeit platooned some – and Huntington allow him 50/75 AB or so to see if he gets going (going where is the big question though), but I suspect he’ll be on a short leash. Moss looks like he may be ready but might not start playing everyday which could open some AB’s for Hinske in RF early. Just a guess.
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Neil Walker? Short-term I’d guess he stays at third because we don’t have any clue what Andy LaRoche is going to do, nor how long it’s going to take Pedro to make it up. We think we know the answers, we hope we know the answers, but we really don’t yet. Long-term? He’s a corner utility guy at best with Bixler the middle utility guy.
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Keep focused – micropayments.. it’s coming to a newspaper/blog/search engine/whatever near you.
The Poynter Institute discussed Google’s Publishers Advisory Council’s outcry for a change in the way Google handles newspaper search engine results – especially from paid content sites. Google’s CEO said in January:
“People love the news. They love reading, discussing it, adding to it, annotating it. The Internet has made the news more accessible. There’s a problem with advertising, classifieds and the cost itself of a newspaper: physical printing, delivery and so on. And so the business model gets squeezed. …
We have a mechanism that enhances online subscriptions, but part of the reason it doesn’t take off is that the culture of the Internet is that information wants to be free. We’ve tried to get newspapers to have more tightly integrated products with ours. We’d like to help them better monetize their customer base. We have tools that make that easier.” (emphasis added)
Yup, Google stands ready to assist the change to a subscription model (micropayment system?) which is going to be forced down the throats of every user who thrives on immediate gratification. In sports, we’re already seeing some daily newspapers reduce – or eliminate – things like scouting reports, umpire reports, matchups, and now even box scores are going to be skimpier.
What is ironic about the article is that newspapers are wanting Google to give them a higher priority in search results which shows their continued ignorance and disregard for what made the Internet what it is today – impartial, open, and free. Asking Google to alter their practices only invites another search engine company to fire up and take over (think what Google did to AltaVista years ago when the public wanted change but AltaVista was too slow to adapt; or even when Yahoo refused to get rid of it’s DMOZ type of search environment everyone hated).
The solution? Just think back to BBS days, that is, if you were around back then. It’s a no-brainer.. one segment of BBS Land was free and offered anyone that made it there the basics; then there were paid BBS sites which were very robust and offered everything from discussion forums, games, mail, news, even classifieds. Those BBS’s were the roots of the current Internet, although many folks don’t realize it.
And I’m here to tell you as a guy who had a very successful paid BBS in the ’80’s (more than 60 US Robotics modems strung all over the front room), if they offer something nobody else does – or they do it better – people will pay. Ask Ma Bell (pay telephone), Baseball America, The Wall Street Journal, or now, Time Magazine.
Keep focused.. it’s happening faster than you think and baseball and football fans are all but certain to be early guinea pigs.
By Jake, on March 27, 2009, at 12:10 am |
“It does bear mentioning, obviously, that [Morgan] batted .347 from Aug. 19 until the end of last season, the 10th highest average in the National League in that span.” — Post-Gazette, March 26, 2009
Sounds impressive, doesn’t it?
But the reality is, the Pirates won just 8 of the 27 games Morgan started in despite all that feel good stuff, were negative -0.3 pythagorean wins with him in the starting lineup (8-19), and scored 3.2 runs per game on average. With him out of the lineup from August 19th on (10 games), the Pirates scored 3.4 runs per game and between August 1st and the end of the year were +1.2 pythagorean wins in games he didn’t start in. Small sample size alert across the board, but that’s a +1.5 win shift all the same.
Yes, Morgan hit the ball well from August 19th on.. no question about that.
But he was only allowed to start three games against a southpaw and hit just .200 in those (4-20), he wiped himself off the base in one of those four hits, and against right hand pitchers where he fared the best, two of the five pitchers he went 12-24 against are either no longer in the game or moved to the AL (Sabathia and Torres). Of the other three, Joel Pineiro, Adam Wainright, and Dave Bush, only Wainright has a job locked up although all three may well be in their club’s rotation.
Throw in a 2-6 against Jeff Suppan, a 2-4 game against Brian Moehler, and a 2-3 against Hiroki Kuroda at PNC, and it appears Morgan can wail right-hand soft tossers or guys like Kuroda who don’t pitch worth a can of corn away from their home park. If you’re keeping track, that’s an 18-37 run (.486) against the eight named pitchers – the rest of the time he hit .284 (23-81) with 22% of those hits against 2A/3A pitchers with names you’ve never heard of - many late in games. And I bet you didn’t know that Andy LaRoche hit .308 in 8 of those same games?
Plus, of the 48 times he reached base in games he started, he removed himself from the basepaths almost half as many times (8, which includes caught stealing) as he scored (20).
Still, Morgan proved to be a monster against six pitchers, five of which he’d probably see a game or two against in 2009, but he’s proven he can’t hit southpaws in the league, and the Pirates scored more runs per game and realized a better pythagorean winning percentage with him not in the lineup than with him to boot. Throw in his below average arm and average to below-average route running on defense, plus being totally useless as a pinch hitter, and you have a right to ask – why is there so much love being spread around the media for such a limited player?
If it was me, I’d option Morgan to 3A (can he be designated for assignment with an option year left? I’d guess so) and let the rest of the game know he’s available for a low level C/B arm, then take a harder look at Salazar and Jones. It’s time to move on even though we’ll take a tick of hit defensively.
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Another interesting quote from that same Post-Gazette article:
“[Burnett] held all batters to a .188 average in the last month.”
They are talking about 38 plate appearances pitching against almost equal amounts of left and right hand batters over 13 games and every team well out of the hunt, except the Dodgers where he faced one batter in the first game and allowed one inherited runner to score (he allowed 13 of 44 to score all year.. ouch), then faced Repko and Hu in the next game- not exactly huge threats there either.
Still, I can’t help wondering myself if Chavez catching 34% of those at bats had anything at all to do with Burnett’s limited success?
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Pirates’ talks with Ohman heat up, huh? You say that has a familiar ring to it? You’re right, it does.
Remember when we reported that the Tigers and Pirates were deep in talks regarding Wilson this winter? And do you remember the Post-Gazette’s off the wall idea that Wilson would restructure his contract so he’d be more affordable to the Dodgers, but it turned out they weren’t even interested in Wilson to begin with? Yup, we all wondered why Mr. Wilson wouldn’t restructure his deal for his current team instead – remember?
Well you see, all three of those players (Ohman, Lawrence, and Wilson) have one common thread – agent Page Odle.
Now back to today’s headline – why in the world would the Pittsburgh Pirates pony up $2MM on a situational reliever when they have so many 7th inning guys that need to be sorted out? Consider Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, and Virgil Vasquez, they have Jason Davis and Daniel McCutchen in camp, and Hansen, Chavez, Davidson, and Burnett all hanging around.
Now I’m not suggesting any one of those guys will be a Will Ohman, but does it matter in ‘09? Are we still in acquistion mode (trading for youthful players) or are we starting to get some kind of warm fuzzy feeling looking at spring training numbers? I hope we’re still dealing because I still can’t get our runs scored projection up to 700 and I’m still looking at over 800 runs allowed.
And besides, if they did spend $2MM for Ohman, and considering the $4MM they gave Ramon Vasquez with Neil Walker and Brian Bixler both available, we might have been able to give stupid money to Bobby Abreu, Jason Varitek, or added a few dollars to get Jon Garland.
Who would you rather have around?
This doesn’t make any sense unless Grabow is about to go on the DL – or out the door in a trade, which very well might be possible. Ohman is solid in the divison but an arm we don’t need to be spending money on.
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Speaking of warm and fuzzy stories, here’s one at ESPN on Pedro Alvarez. I’m sorry but as a Pirates’ fan who would have loved to see this guy well on his way to Pittsburgh by now instead of being an agent’s punk boy, I don’t have anything for Pedro. I wish him well but I won’t waste my time thinking he’ll ever really be a Pirate. More like a scab of sorts who runs in six years.
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So what’s with Brad Lincoln? We haven’t heard a peep out of anyone about him this spring other than he’s slated for 2A.
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Three guesses where Sandy Alderson ends up.
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We take on the Blue Jays Friday night and Roy Halliday will start followed by BJ Ryan against Virgil Vasquez. Now that should be an interesting game. Maholm is throwing a “B” game at Pirate City against the Yankees 3A club.
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Brian Friday is having himself quite a spring – he went 4-4 Thursday against the Vegas 51’s and the Tribe won again. Good for Friday – he’s starting to separate himself which he badly needs to do.
By Jake, on March 26, 2009, at 12:40 am |
Another typical game late in the spring.. decent pitching early (check!), reasonably sound defense from both clubs early (check!), the starters exit and then the bizarre book opens (check!).
I mentioned here Monday night that it was time to send Veal back to the Cubs and I made that comment based on the obvious – he was starting to display the “I fold under pressure” knock that has followed him since A-ball. As spring starts to wear down and cuts are now looming, Veal finally crashed and burned Wednesday night.
He entered in the 7th and had a nice 1-2-3 inning then came back out and walked the first batter he faced in the 8th. Sound familiar? If you had been around pirateball.com’s discussion forum between 2004 and 2005 then you know who I’m talking about – John Grabow. Spin Williams used Grabow to clean up an inning and he’d go sit on the pine then come out and try to get outs the next inning and more often than not he’d get hammered.
Veal could be Grabow’s cousin, meaning that his value is probably as a lefty specialist down the road somewhere.
Anyway back to Wednesday night’s game.. so Veal walked Olmedo who was the first batter, Sadler bunt right past Veal on the right side and Cruz couldn’t throw him out, and Luna then laid down a sac bunt that Diaz went to third with but Olmedo was called safe on a bang-bang play. So at that point Veal had allowed one walk and two men reached on bunts loading the bases.
Joe Kerrigan came out and talked to the young man then on the first pitch Veal hit Longoria on his foot from a hook he bent off a bit too much. That forced one run in, Ensberg struckout for the first out, and then Veal walked Richards in an extended at bat forcing in the second run.
Two walks, a hit batter, two bunts, a strikeout, and two runs across — and Veal was sent to the shower, Bootcheck got the next batter to hit into a double play to end the inning, and the Bucs lost.
Now here’s the key – the Cubs probably care less about Veal at this point in his career so I suspect we’ll see him clear the wire and us work out a deal to keep him in our system. But if we offer more than a 30 year old DSL player for this guy, we’ll be giving up too much.
Just my opinion.. what do I know.
One of our runs came in the 6th when Vasquez ground one in the hole on the left side that Bartlett at short got to but couldn’t make a play on, he stole second as Adam LaRoche struckout swinging, and then cruised home when Moss singled back up the middle. The other run came from back-to-back doubles by Moss and Pearce in the 4th.
The Rays two other runs came from a third inning blast by Adam Kennedy to center off Karstens with Gross on first who had singled.
Some of the more obvious fundamental ”thinking” parts of this game that I found curious..
.. Cruz singled in the third with one out, then McCutchen ground a ball to the left side – it went through for a hit but it also could have been a double play ball. With Cruz at third and Cutch at first, Bixler did the exact same thing – a ground ball to the left side that forced Cutch out at second but Bixler was lucky enough to beat out the relay on. Cruz had to hold at third the entire time. We’re not thinking in the box like, oh, going to the right side to move runners.. we’re just acting. Plus I also wonder, if Cruz had been off on the crack of the bat, even if he gets thrown out at the plate a speedier McCutchen is still at second so why did Beasley even hold Cruz? Strange stuff.
.. Cutch put the ball in the air in three of his four at bats as a leadoff batter. That’s not what I want to see from him.. I want to see him pound the ball on the ground and use his legs. I’ve talked about this over-and-over until I’m blue here, Cutch has been swinging long and evidently nobody cares enough to stop it or else he’s being groomed for the 2 or 3 hole??? Come on.
.. bases loaded, two-two tie game, eighth inning, no outs, Veal on the mound unable to consistently find the zone.. what does he throw? A first pitch hook after Kerrigan walked off talking to him. Puh-lease. Why not heat under Longoria’s chin?
.. 9th inning, one out, the Bucs down by two, Moss squibs one on the right side and the first baseman throws it away. Even though the wall is very close, Moss rounds first and takes off for second and is thrown out. What was Perry Hill telling Moss to do? I don’t know, but I doubt seriously it was to turn the corner down two in the 9th with the pitcher fielding the errand throw.
Unfortunately, these “thinking” kind of miscues/misfires have been popping up daily and it’s getting to the point now that they need to be mentioned. It appears – appears – the players are back to doing whatever it is they want to do without any accountability whatsoever. That’s not good and it’s going to cost us wins if it keeps up.
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Wilson exited with an asthma problem which is also typical in March in Florida.
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Bucs are 7-1 in one-run games this spring. That’s quite a feat considering what we’ve been running out there from our pen.
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Someone tell me why Brian Bixler showed up to camp swinging for the fences every AB?
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The Jays shoved one in our face Wednesday when they sent Bryan Bullington to the hill against Indy who pitched 4.2 scoreless and then TJ Beam came out and held the Indians scoreless for another 1.1 innings and picked up the win.
One day Bullington is likely to get on track and become a back of the order guy.. just a gut feeling. I liked the way he was throwing the ball before we lost him.
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Lots of emails from readers on Tabata. I’m not going there except to say I’m praying for him and his family and hope you do the same.
By Jake, on March 25, 2009, at 12:22 am |
I ran a couple of new models today using Ohlendorf and Vasquez in the rotation with Duke, Snell, and Maholm, and I came up with 0.48% more balls in play than our median for starting pitching in 2008 but a reduction of 0.37% in walks. That’s a hefty reduction in walks since we were 1.1% higher than the MLB median in innings 1-5 last year and will get us closer to the league average rate for innings 1-5 over the last three years.
But there’s more to it than all that.
Many seem to believe that the vast majority of walks we issue are because our pitchers can’t find the zone. While I don’t disagree with that, I also wonder how many of those misses were intentional, not-intentional walks?
Last November when I saw Huntington’s plan developing, I considered this exact scenario and asked:
“The problem becomes how many runs will score from those additional hits where fewer runs might have scored from issuing a walk to get past a batter the pitcher wasn’t comfortable with?”
If I remember my base run states correctly, a leadoff walk will score about 40% of the time which is about the same as a leadoff single. The only other times the value of a walk is equivalent to a single is when there is nobody on base regardless of the number of outs. Every other state a walk’s run value is less.. many states significantly less.
Makes sense, right? Except one thing.. as you probably know, when a ball is put in play the defense has two options - they either turn an out (70% of the time or so) or allow a hit (30% of the time).
So, how many of those balls in play actually go for outs, or how many hits remain singles, with Ohlendorf and Vasquez as compared to Gorzelanny and Dumatrait in the 32 starts they made last year?
Now before you answer that consider this - you know Tom Gorzelanny had an insane 6.66 ERA last year in his 21 starts because that’s what the Pirates and the local media have force fed down your throat the last week. But there’s another picture the fans don’t realize..
.. in 13 of Gorzo’s 21 starts (62%) he had a 3.79 ERA and allowed less than a hit an inning (78.1 IP, 69 H). Throw in 7 of Phil Dumatrait’s 11 starts where he allowed 29 hits in 40.2 innings of work with a 2.66 ERA, and you have a combined 20 starts, 119 innings pitched, 98 hits given up, and a scant 45 earned runs allowed for a ridiculously low 3.40 ERA.
Now are we supposed to believe Ohlendorf and [put your favorite fifth starter name here between Karstens and Vasquez] can combine to hurl 20 of 32 starts with a 3.40 ERA?
I’ll give you 100-1 odds that will never happen.
So let’s go back to the base run states.. the Pirates state a walk puts a man on base 100% of the time where a ball in play results in a hit 30% of the time. Ok, fair enough. But if our pitchers are walking batters they know have their number (ie: Lance Berkman vs Ian Snell with 7 walks in ‘08) and that ultimately results in fewer runs allowed (ie Gorzy – 46 of his 70 walks issued in ‘08 came in the 13 starts he had a 3.79 ERA in), then what’s the harm?
Right, it appears to be limited.
I’m not denying the Pirates premise.. fewer walks might have made Gorzelanny a 3.00 ERA pitcher in those 13 starts last year – who knows, but it also might have made him a 5.00 ERA guy too.
But when you change that ‘08 makeup by putting less experienced strike throwers on the mound like we’re planning on doing, I’m here to tell you that, even though we’ll see a tick more strikeouts, those balls in play are going to rack up more runs allowed than those ”intentional, not-intentional” walks ever did, especially in the case of right hand pitchers throwing at PNC.
Mark my words.
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I’ve not had the opportunity to reach some of those I intended to interview about Gorzelanny’s demotion so Part II is delayed indefinitely until I get the answers. And trust me, I’m not giving up. Nor will I throw out the rumors I’ve heard because they haven’t been confirmed.
But I especially didn’t like the fact John Perrotto (demeanor change) and John Wehner (attitude) started piling on Gorzelanny after he was sent down - those all were low blows from inside that shouldn’t have come out in my opinion, especially after the young man worked so hard this offseason to fulfill the Pirates plan for him.
Understand too, those men are being paid by the Nuttings/Pirates one way or another and they unloaded on him with nearly identical themes almost in unison. Now why would those two attempt to sway the fan’s thinking in a negative direction?
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Ohlendorf pitched a good game against the Braves Tuesday evening despite all the 2-0 counts he rang up. It was nice to see him accomplish it against most of their “A” lineup guys and despite a quirky defense behind him, so he earned it. Since it wasn’t broadcast on MLB.tv it’s hard to get a read on his work, but for a guy that was just lit up by a 3A club a few days ago probably working on things to shutting down a decent offense just makes me wonder.
All we can do is hope his magical spring translates once the season starts. Maybe for a few weeks.. maybe.
I only listened to the first six innings or so until it got squirrelly but heard all three McLouth strikeouts (red flag?). It was an odd game.. the Bucs were sitting on Vazquez’s first pitch fastball early and just couldn’t get wood on it and that ended up with them swinging from their heels more often than not. Monroe dumped one just inside the left field line for a double that scored a run but that appeared to be an “OMG I hit it” type of AB for Monroe more than anything. But hey, an rbi is an rbi. There was a very stiff wind blowing in knocking a few balls down so that helped both pitchers too.
And a win is a win too, huh?
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Burnett with another fine outing.. five batters faced, one walk, one hit. Same with Yates – lots of heat, little movement, little command. Neither one impressed me but have they ever?
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More “We love you Nyjer” talk from the broadcast booth. I don’t get it.. the guy is a total waste of time. Why are we even thinking of a platoon? I mean, we need a 7th inning speed guy sitting on the pine like we need another closer sitting around gathering dust.
I also heard Bob Walk wondering who the Pirates were going to take as the backup catcher. If Doumit goes down early year as I’m projecting he will, it isn’t going to matter one bit, is it?
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Lots of emails from readers about rumors they are hearing about at “XYZ” blog or somewhere else. It’s that time of season that the rumor mill goes amuck so just realize I’m not throwing out the BS unless I know it’s for real.
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A few are asking me if Strasburg falls would I take him with a $50MM price tag. Sure, why not? What’s the dang difference between an extra $1.5MM on him per year and $1.5MM per year in Bob Nutting’s pocket? I’d draft him with the expectation of starting him in 2010, for better or for worse.
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Prayers for Jose Tabata and his family.
By Jake, on March 23, 2009, at 10:52 pm |
Pirateball.com’s headline after the game:
Duke dominating in outing vs. Rays
Indeed.
Let’s look: he started 8 of the 18 (44%) batters faced with a 1-0 count, allowed just two hits in five innings, he went to a three ball count in one-in-four batters that didn’t hit his first pitch offering, and he walked 11% and struckout 22% of the batters he faced.
Now some perspective: in Duke’s best year, 2005, he struckout 17% of the batters he faced – a feat he’s never again come close to (10.5% in ‘08), and last year he walked just 5.6% of batters faced.
Ok.. you get the point.. he probably wasn’t exactly facing a challenging lineup or attacking the strike zone, and you’re right – he didn’t. Just a couple of Rays starters made the trip down including the famous Pat Burrell who played left field of all places and saw a couple of balls go over his head, around him, through him, or whatever. It was hard to tell since he was doing some kind of swan dive in the outfield so much. Oh, and standing at the plate with runners on base and one out and watching pitch after pitch go past him for strikes until he could finally go sit down and get out of the drizzle.
So yeah, Duke wasn’t exactly challenged today. In fact, none of our starters have been challenged much this year. But he’s setup to pitch next Sunday in Tampa against the Yankees as they gear up to head north so we’ll see he does against their “A” lineup, if they even field their “A” guys. Duke is also setup to pitch opening day at PNC.
Offensively we handled Jason Hammel. He didn’t put on much of a show as he walked five (McCutchen three times), but either did we. Morgan walked in the first, stole second, and when a pitch bounced in that Navarro handled he was hung out to dry standing between second and third so he was thrown out. Cutch later walked and advanced to second on a Vasquez hit and run and was then thrown out at the plate by Ruggiano on Hinske’s line drive he came running in on.
Hinske also hit a line drive in the second Kapler stretched for and missed (misplayed?) in center and the ball rolled to the track and Hinske ended up making third (if you can believe that). He scored when Moss hit a grounder to second. Then Wilson doubled to Burrell in left and Duke scored him when he drove a liner over Burrell’s head. Just crazy stuff.
In the fourth it was no better for the Rays.. Moss opened with a walk, Wilson doubled to Burrell again who did a tuck and roll on the play, Jaramillo ground one to Brignac at short with Wilson breaking in front of him to third, but he threw to first for the out as Moss scored. Then Morgan hit a grounder to Pena who was playing back on the outfield grass (Morgan’s a big bunt threat, huh?) and it went off his glove allowing Wilson to score. Even crazier stuff.
Sure as you might expect at that point, our “C” roster pen guys came out and mopped up – Veal, Bootcheck, Yates (ok, he’s not an “A” roster guy, not a “C”, so we’ll call him a “B”), and Chavez. We barely dented their three “B” pen guys after Hammel left.
And we won yet another game. Whooopie.. we rock.
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Two radio broadcasts in a row the Pirates announcers have hinted at a possible trade looming with an outfielder.. obviously McLouth. I hear the White Sox and Yankees are the two teams hunting for a center fielder the loudest but there are other clubs that could probably use a Gold Glove (*cough*) outfielder too like, oh, the Rays considering Upton’s questionable status.
I would LOVE to see McLouth dealt high for some young pitching and I would guess we’d want at least one arm who could step into the rotation now plus one upper level younger pitching prospect. Then if we could deal Doumit and Wilson off to the Red Sox too for a Buchholz and Lowrie package..
Ok, back to reality.
We have a mess in the outfield as it is. Morgan is loved too much and he offers too little, McLouth was a surprise in 2008 but I’m not in the camp he repeats, Moss is hurt and is really only a 4th outfield kind of guy anyway, so we’re already having to fall back on Hinske and Monroe which is a bit of a worry defensively. If we toss McLouth out the door we’d be stuck with Monroe, Moss, Hinske, and Morgan with Salazar or Pearce as the guy to go to in Indy.
That’s not exactly a defensive dream team, nor an offensive one either.
I realize everyone keeps talking about Andrew McCutchen still being in camp as a possible signal he could break with the club but I don’t see any value in that considering our pitching woes. I mean, why start the kid’s clock in an obviously dead year? Let’s wait for Tabata to force him up or McLouth to fail. What’s the rookie of the year minimum time limit? 45 days, not including September? Then I’d wait to start his clock where he can be up 44 days before rosters expand allowing him a chance at rookie of the year in 2010 IF — IF — we had to start his clock in 2009.
My choice? He stays at Indy through 2009 and doesn’t see Pittsburgh until June or July of 2010 so we get that extra year out of him down the road we need so bad.
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Speaking of McLouth, did you get a chance to read his interview at Baseball Prospectus? His old school approach on the value of defensive metrics caught me a bit off guard, especially considering the amount of energy flowing around such metrics the last couple of years.
But his acknowledgement that he plays the shallowest center field in the game comes as no surprise to us – we’ve talked about that over and over here ever since he was brought in last April. For him it works, but for the Pirates it doesn’t work as well as a guy who can cover some ground and be off on the crack of the bat like we saw with Chris Duffy. Even Andrew McCutchen has that pause in his early route recognition which will require him to play in a tick too until he gets used to the league, I’d guess.
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It’s time to send Veal back to the Cubs.
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Jake Peavy a Brewer? Why can’t there be Peavy rumors outside of the NLCD?
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Just eight days left to enter our March contest where you have a chance to win some cold hard cash.
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Here’s a release from the Indy Indians on their game Monday (nice to see Friday swinging good wood):
INDIANAPOLIS HOLDS OFF LEHIGH VALLEY 3-2
Tribe Jumps Out To Fast Start In Rain-Shortened Exhibition Game
CLEARWATER, Fla. — Infielder Brian Friday’s first inning homer was the difference as the Indianapolis Indians beat the Lehigh Valley IronPigs 3-2 in a rain-shortened exibition game on Monday March 23 at the Carpenter Complex in Clearwater, Fla.
The Tribe jumped out to a quick 1-0 lead as Friday blasted his first spring homer off of Major League veteran and Wold Series Champion Jamie Moyer. The left-handed Moyer (5.2 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO) gave up ten hits and received the loss after 5.2 innings of work.
Indians top prospect Daniel McCutchen (4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO) went four scoreless innings for the win, allowing just two hits while striking out three.
Former Indianapolis Indian Chris Coste, who played with the Tribe in 2004, caught all six innings for Lehigh Valley.
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