By Jake, on April 30, 2009, at 11:33 pm |
Some interesting questions this week:
“Pedro Alvarez has more errors than home runs in Lynchburg. When does he get moved to first base?” — CT, Belle Vernon, PA
Lots of fans e-mailing about this. The Pirates aren’t about to move Alvarez from the hot corner just because he commits errors while being developed, CT. The fact of the matter is, Alvarez has to stick at third or they risk losing a lot of value in him.
“You mentioned clubhouse problems the other day Jake. What are you hearing?” — NR, Reynoldsburg, OH
Nothing specific, just some low-level grumbling. There are some very dedicated men who want to win as bad as the fans want to see them win, and then there are some who just collect a paycheck, sort-to-speak. When a club is winning a lot there’s less grumbling – when they are losing a lot, there is more. So the fact I was hearing grumbling while they were winning means there is some deep conflict within the group. But let me stress something, clubhouse problems aren’t always directed player-to-player, they are also directed player-to-front office, field staff, or even ownership.
“Wilbur Miller and other die-hard Pirates fans agree with Smizik’s claim that Bob Nutting had nothing to do with the Pirates problems the last five plus years. Is it possible you are wrong?” — PM, Wheeling, WV
I’m not going to get into a pissing contest over what someone said or didn’t say. But no, I’m not wrong – the Nutting’s controlled the Board. Now what the details of the initial ten-year partnership agreement were I haven’t a clue, but it stands to reason that if one family has a majority of the stock and owns a voting majority on the Board, they control the franchise – including the CEO. The Nuttings started buying up everyone’s stock in the 2002/2003 era with one thing in mind – complete control, and they did that knowing they had the votes on the Board to do as they pleased.
“Why did you believe Tom Gorzelanny might be brought back to Pittsburgh when we head to St. Louis next week?” — JB, Las Vegas, NV
I miscalculated Gorzelanny’s service time. He was a tick over two years at the end of the 2008 season so to keep him around another year we won’t be seeing him until June 1st at the earliest, more likely June 15th or later. Same would be true for Andrew McCutchen being called up – no earlier than mid June.
“Jonathan Mayo at MLB had an article on Tanner Scheppers today and it seems you were right about him all along Jake. We should have signed him. ” — JF, Belle Vernon, PA
It was a no-brainer at the time, JF. Looking back today it’s even an easier decision – if you are going to spend $2MM for an older utility player, why in the world would you not spend that money instead signing one of the premiere arms in the ‘08 draft knowing you had Bixler and a 90-loss club?
But what bothers me most about the Schepper’s no-sign is that our decision-making process was obviously flawed from our pro scouts all the way to Coonelly. The Pirates stated they felt he was an injury risk but he’s clearly shown that not to be the case.
Perhaps the biggest concern I’ve always had is that we have never been geared up to develop pitching in our system, and we still aren’t. Hiring quality pitching instructors is next to impossible for clubs going nowhere and the Bucs are a perfect model of that. Until we go spend some stupid money on getting pro caliber talent to develop these arms, it might be better we don’t try to put any in our system because all it will do is lead to more failure.
“Grant Green in June?” — VR, Pittsburgh, PA
No, we need arms and there are some decent second-tier pitching that will be hard to pass up on. Remember now, I was high on Crow last year and I’m still on him.. Matt Purke is another live arm, Shelby Miller another. If I’m picking a position player and Green is available, I probably pass him and take Mychal Givens instead (a tick of an overdraft as a shortstop but one I think worth it). The kid is simply a monster in waiting, but very, very raw. And for those that have asked, I’m not high on Ackley.. I just don’t see the power potential everyone else seems to think is there. I think he’ll go early as a raw hitter, but it will be an overdraft in my opinion.
Crow, Givens, Miller.. those are three studs. Miller might even be available at #49, although I highly doubt it. Givens and Crow are top 15 guys on my board.
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So the Reds are coming to town, huh? We see Arroyo Friday night and you probably immediately said, we own him. We certainly do.. Arroyo is 0-4 last four starts at PNC against us. But guess what, the Bucs (are you sitting down?) have won only four Friday night games that Duke started (out of 21). Ouch.
Duke always throws well against the Reds at PNC – he keeps the ball down and we see a ton of ground balls so look for Vasquez to start at short and then we have a problem - who plays left? I assume Monroe but maybe Moss since his knee looks better and he’s certainly seeing the ball well right now. That assumes McLouth is sitting this series, of course.
If I was in Vegas betting on this game I sure like the long odds on the Reds. Arroyo always pitches well at PNC but always seems to lose. He got bombed by the Braves but that’s understandable with the way the Braves are hitting right now. What bothers me about Duke this game is that he threw 114 pitches last time out and he has the potential to give up the ship after throwing more than 100 the previous game. I don’t expect him to go very deep.. maybe 85 – 90 pitches so that means our pen will have to close out the last three or four innings.
And don’t think the Reds pen can’t hold a lead, they are pretty good so far this year and the club ERA is like 5th or so in the league.
Saturday we see Owings (ouch, but we should get to him because he’s probably going to fatigue early) and Sunday it’s Cueto who is always been tough against us.
Be careful with this series because if McLouth comes back less than 100% and the Reds put some runs up, we could very easily get swept.
But don’t count on that happening.
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So we ended up the month with an 11-10 record, good for +2 wins over historical expected with one game cancelled. That’s excellent. This month we have a little harder schedule but a tick better historical winning percentage against so if we take care of business against teams like the Reds who have some problems, we should be able to go up another +2 wins.. or even more.
And we better because in June it gets downright ugly.
By Jake, on April 29, 2009, at 11:06 pm |
What a pitcher’s duel at Miller Park Wednesday. Snell pitched very well but Gallardo was better. I didn’t expect Snell to pitch as well as he did – I admit that. In fact, I thought he’d get crushed because the last game he pitched he was back up in the zone and unwilling to bury his slider in the dirt. That didn’t happen – he was low in the zone and consistently bounced a very tight slider on the dirt all day. And I don’t just mean a tight slider, but one of those 60 to 65 type of pitches you hear scouts rave about. It was on. His fastball command wasn’t on, and his change up is still a little league offering he’s throwing way too much, but his slider was sweet.
But so was Gallardo’s stuff. Man was Gallardo on. He has one of the hardest hooks (power slurve?) to pick up I’ve ever seen. His arm and body action makes it look like a fastball until you see the ball tumbling softly out of his hand and by that time it’s too late – it freezes you as it bends five feet. Tough stuff. If he commands that pitch all year and spots his fastball like he did today, he’s going to be a 15 game winner – easily.
All you can do is tip your hat to him. But be sure to tip it Snell’s way too – he pitched an excellent game.
Not more than three innings into this game I started receiving e-mails about the strike zone being called by Marty Foster. And after Adam LaRoche made some comments to the media after the game about Foster seemingly favoring Gallardo, my in-box lit up.
My response to everyone is this – Karstens set the tone for this series when he threw under Looper’s chin twice Monday when trying to bunt, then hit Braun in the numbers on his back. If you are going to play old school baseball, then you better expect the umpires to play that way too and the fact is, they don’t like being placed in the middle of it all. Brush batters back, make them move their feet, even toss some high heat, but don’t intentionally throw at the body. If you do, don’t expect the man in blue to come to your rescue.
And he didn’t all series long.
But, you know, who cares where the strike zone was anyway? There was probably only two guys in our lineup who even saw Gallardo’s pitches well enough to know when to swing, much less where to swing. You can’t win games with bats on your shoulder so I have a hard time giving any sympathy to our guys because they think Gallardo’s zone was huge. They failed to make an adjustment – you know, like swing the bat. LOL
Oh, and we see Gallardo again next Monday in Pittsburgh. Will we have a new excuse then?
The e-mails I received also questioned Snell being allowed to throw 131 pitches. You know I’m a pitch count freak and I agree, Snell throwing +39 pitches over his last outing is a bit much, but I watched the game close and I never saw him give any signs he was in trouble so I don’t have any issue with Kerrigan taking him that deep. Plus, Snell is well beyond my personal pitch count red flag area of less than 500 professional innings.. it’s about time he goes deeper.
For those wondering, here’s a quick snapshot of his velocity over the 7 frames. As you can see, he threw 65 fastballs, 28 sliders, and the rest change ups. The chart simply shows velocity over time based on the per pitch type thrown.
You’ll also notice he was still throwing mid-90’s late so it’s hard to fault Kerrigan for letting him go so long. Perhaps an argument could be made that when he overthrew his pitches (early and late) he didn’t find the plate as well as he did in the middle, but perhaps the speed changes were also intended?
Would I have pushed him that long? Yes, if our goal is to deal Snell for some youth this year which it should be. No, if Huntington’s goal is to keep him around a few more years, regardless of being outside my red flag innings. And, let’s not forget he has a history of back and elbow problems so it’s not what happened today that makes a difference, it’s what happens down the road that matters.
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I suppose I should take a minute to talk about Snell and Diaz not communicating very well in the first inning. It got so bad that Snell pointed his finger at his head looking at Diaz which really upset me as a fan. Diaz is a rookie and if he was making rookie mistakes, who does Snell think he is to call him out in front of everyone like that instead of asking him to come to the mound and speaking to him privately? That was bush league.
I hope John Russell or Neal Huntington put a foot up Snell’s – well, gives Snell a little boot where it counts because he had no business to treat the young man like that. In fact, if Diaz’s glovework hadn’t been as slick as it was, Snell would never have had the great game he did because Diaz bailed him numerous times blocking sliders in the dirt well in front of home plate.
Man we have some selfish players on our roster.
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Tabata out four to six weeks, they are saying. Well, the negative to that is that his injury is something that can flare up all his professional days (think Nady), so that’s not good. The positive to this is that it probably happened at a good time because with all the legal issues around him right now, he needs some space. Say a prayer for him.
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I really don’t like talking about this article because I believe it was written only to incite links back to the newspaper (thus you won’t see one here), but Bob Smizik’s latest article “In defense of Bob Nutting” is so far out there, it deserves an award for the biggest piece of crap written by a professional newspaper blogger of all time.
Smizik attempts to pursuade Pirates’ fans that Bob Nutting had nothing to do with the downfall of the Pirates. In defense he states:
“He officially has been the principal owner of the Pirates since January of 2007. Prior to that, he had some influence since his family was a major stockholder in the team. But as best can be determined he was not making major baseball-related decisions.” emphasis added here
Now don’t let Smizik’s double-talk take you off the beaten path. He wants you to focus on the fact Nutting didn’t make baseball-related decisions, but nowhere in his article did he tell you Bob Nutting has been Chairman of the Board of the Pirates since 2003. Nor did Smizik tell you that the Nutting family held voting control of the Board after Kevin McClatchy ‘pawned’ one of his two votes to the Nuttings.
Kevin McClatchy was, in essence, the president of the corporation and until the fans are ever provided documentation of anything to the contrary, McClatchy then served at the pleasure of the Board (that the Nuttings controlled). That means anything McClatchy did was done with Nutting approval since Bob and Ogden Nutting could have just pushed Kevin aside any time they wanted.
And they did just that in other areas like, oh, we saw employees fired among other things like refusing to input their own cash when the franchise needed it the most – (ie: see the dumping of Ramirez and all the drafts subsequent to that).
Then Smizik gives his personal laundry list of reasons to like Bob Nutting. Puh-lease Bobby, save your breath. We can list twice as many negative things about the Nutting clan in Pirates circles than you’ll ever be able to dream up on the positive side.
Smizik then says:
“As near as I can tell, Nutting is running what amount to something close to a textbook operation for low-revenue teams. “
Agreed. The Nuttings are raking hand-over-fist.. it’s textbook.
“Rant if you want, but the Pirates have been awful for any number or reasons but nowhere chief among them is the failures of Bob Nutting.”
The Pirates failure has been the direct result of the Nutting family’s unwillingness to act. Here’s a little corporation law 101 for you Mr. Smizik: 15 Pa.C.S.A. § 515:
§ 515. Exercise of powers generally
(a) General rule.–In discharging the duties of their respective positions, the board of directors, committees of the board and individual directors of a domestic corporation may, in considering the best interests of the corporation, consider to the extent they deem appropriate:
(1) The effects of any action upon any or all groups affected by such action, including shareholders, members, employees, suppliers, customers and creditors of the corporation, and upon communities in which offices or other establishments of the corporation are located.
End of one very biased written story.
BTW, hey Mr. Smizik, does your newspaper still have a free luxury suite at PNC??? You go Bob. You go.
By Jake, on April 28, 2009, at 11:01 pm |
Maholm came out throwing pretty rough just as I expected, but the Brewers couldn’t take advantage of it. That now makes three straight starts Maholm has taken the mound with average stuff and shaky command and got away with it. Tuesday nights offering was a 104 pitch, five inning affair with five walks and five hits (ooppsss.. they just had him bat in the top of the 6th, if you can believe that). He stranded the bases loaded in the third and fourth just to give you an idea of his luck.
Maholm started the 5th at the 83 pitch mark and I kept wondering how far he would go. He opened Hart getting him to a 1-2 count then walked him, Braun hit a little broken bat flair double to left that Moss had a hard time handling and Hart scored from first on, Fielder then ground one to first getting Braun to third, and for some reason Russell had the infield back with one out and a man at third in a 5-1 game with nobody worth a can of corn in the pen, and Cameron hit a slow grounder to Bixler at short allowing Braun to score. That made the score 5-2 and it put the Brewers in momentum mode.
And it put Maholm at 104 pitches and I figured that was it for him because he was leading off the 6th. But no, Russell had him bat and after three quick outs, we were right back on the field.
The first pitch from Maholm to Hall went over the left field fence, on three pitches Kendall flied out to right, Counsell hit a rocket on the third pitch to Sanchez that ate him up and ended up in right center for a single, and finally, mercifully, Russell went and got Maholm at the 111 pitch mark with just 62 of them strikes.
Heat thrower Chavez was brought in to face Weeks and the first 92 mph offering was low and in and the second two-seamer was flat, belt-high, middle of the plate, and Weeks deposited it in the left field seats and the Brewers took the lead 6-5.
From Bixler’s third out at bat to end the 5th – a strikeout – to the end of the 8th, we sent ten men to the plate and saw just 37 pitches. Simply put, we packed it in after blowing the 5-1 lead. In the 9th with Hoffman on the mound, Vasquez ledoff with a single, Morgan then attempted to bunt on the first pitch for some reason (went foul) and then struck out two pitches later, and Sanchez hit into a double play.
A demoralizing loss. Read my lips again, a D E M O R A L I Z I N G loss. The kind that sends teams into ten game downspins and gets players wondering why they even try when field staff and management haven’t got a clue.
You know, we’re seeing our weakness get exploited which is what we expected since spring training since Huntington didn’t get aggressive signing talent. Our pen is putrid. And let’s be honest, our starting pitching has been extremely lucky (ie tonight alone, see two bases loaded strands by Maholm) with very few true gold performances so far.
Kudos to Jaramillo who delivered a clutch two-out double scoring two (Hinske and Andy LaRoche who were both hit by a pitch — jersey’s glazed) in the 5th putting us up 5-1. That was a monster hit. Hinske’s double in the third was also a solid knock scoring two.
Unfortunately, Russell out-managed the game for the second night in a row.
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Tough spot for Snell to be in Wednesday. He’s going to get mauled the way Russell has set him up. I would almost be willing to bet he exits with an ‘injury’ early in the game. Let’s watch and see.
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MLB.tv didn’t even start until 40 minutes after first pitch. MLB.tv is really rank this year – if you even attempt to watch any game in what they call high def, you better take epileptic meds first, it’s that bad.
And someone tell me why any baseball fan should have to pay $20 per year to use Gameday Premium? The only thing they give you extra is some little one-inch by one-inch screen that purports to tell you hitting or pitching patterns but it’s a joke. If you’re paying for that, you’re out of your mind.
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Tabata has a hamstring problem I heard. It’s probably a good time for it to happen. Maybe he can clear his head with a little time off.
But what’s up with Andrew McCutchen? If he isn’t around Wednesday for more than a token appearance, I’ll ask around. Ford took his place returning to the lineup but from what I hear, he’s not 100% yet either.
Looks like the Pirates are back to their old tricks – keep pushing the kids out there unless they break in two.
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To heck with Ryan Braun. And notice the wonderful acting job by Kendall at the end of the clip.
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I thought some of you might like this old video I found of Duke. Notice his arm speed and velocity early on. The first part is in fast motion.
By Jake, on April 28, 2009, at 12:11 am |
Good game. Karstens came out of the pen without command of any of his pitches but was able to limit the damage to just five runs primarily coming from three home runs, all on hanging offspeed pitches elevated in the zone. But it wasn’t only hanging curves and sliders that got Karstens in trouble, his two-seamer had absolutely no run on it early and he saw it crushed all over the diamond, even for outs.
We had a lot of chances.. the Brewers had a lot more. But the one that seemed to kill our momentum the most happened in the very first inning.
No outs, 1-0 Bucs, Adam LaRoche at the plate with Sanchez at second and Monroe at first, and LaRoche hit a line drive single to medium depth center field. Sanchez was running fairly hard to third but not pouring it on and then all of a sudden Tony Beasley gave him the green light to head home. Sanchez sort of looked twice at Beasley wondering what the heck is going on and Cameron threw a bullet nailing him ten feet before the plate.
That was ugly.
Instead of the bases loaded and no outs, we now had one out with Monroe stopping at second and LaRoche at first. Hinske then hit a grounder back up the middle that would gone through with the infield playing in and no outs but Weeks got to it and flipped behind his back to Hardy who missed it and everyone was safe. Keep following me now – at this point it would have been no outs, two runs in, and the bases still loaded instead of bases loaded and one out.
Andy LaRoche came to the plate with the infield playing back with the one out, instead of possibly in and no outs (probably not that early in the game but I don’t know how Macha would have played it), and he hit a rocket down the first base line Fielder gloved that would have easily gone past him into the corner scoring no less than two runs if he had been in. Instead, Adam LaRoche scored making it just 2-0 Bucs and there were now two outs.
So no less than one run was squelched with Tony Beasley’s decision to send Sanchez but it could have been as many as three runs. We’ll never know.
The Bucs went to sleep after that mistake – five of the next eleven batters (three innings) struck out on unimpressive Looper stuff, we managed just one hit – Adam LaRoche’s double over Hart’s head in right leading off the fourth, and one walk. That was it. And don’t credit it to Looper – he was all over the place, his velocity down so low the Brewers shut off the broadcast gun when he pitched. No, we we’re up there taking big swings looking for the fence as we always do at Miller.
In the eighth with the score Brewers 5, Bucs 3, Jaramillo singled leading off, then with two outs Morgan singled putting runners at first and third. Sanchez then pulled a hanging change up into the left field corner scoring both runners and I spewed my beverage in delight. The game was tied.
For – maybe – five minutes.
Out of the pen comes Tyler Yates and I lost it. He had already been sent to the mound three times this year in high leverage situations and in two of the three times he allowed runs (both games were home run shots). Better put, in the three times he entered a tie game from the 7th on this year, four of the twelve he faced reached and those batters hit at a .879 OPS clip against him. It was the worst possible matchup we had available (like we really had a lot of options, you know what I mean?).
Eleven pitches later he had runners on second and third with one out and John Russell was sticking with him and curiously drew the infield in with Weeks at the plate. I don’t understand why Russell didn’t walk Weeks there to open up a double play opportunity with Yates’ sinker (allowing us to play back too) but he didn’t, and Weeks hit a sharp grounder to Sanchez who dove to his knees to stop it and fired home off the mark allowing one run to cross the plate.
And it was all down hill from there.. five runs on just two hits in the inning. Unbelievable.
We played them as tight as you could expect with a #5/#6 type starter on the mound in an away game until our pen hit the mound, but then it got ugly fast. Just one of those nights where it’s easy to second guess everything.
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One thing is becoming more and more clear every game I watch Jaramillo is that he is too raw to catch every day. I love his enthusiasm, I love his potential down the road as at least a solid backup defensive catcher, but he’s way too raw right now. Another problem is he doesn’t know these pitchers well enough to call a game yet and more and more often we’re seeing pitchers not hitting his mitt. It’s more than obvious they don’t like him behind the plate.
But they are stuck with him.
I’m not suggesting Diaz would be any better because, from what I saw of Diaz, he’s too frisky behind the dish to ever amount to anything, but Jaramillo clearly isn’t the answer. He’s stepped in and handled them the best he can but he’s starting to wear down mentally and it shows. Maholm and Duke will probably be ok with him, but the others need more. A couple of games off sitting beside the field staff charting might not hurt the young man one bit.
And yeah, I think Ronny Paulino getting away was a mistake even as flawed as he was.
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Craig Monroe batting third is simply ridiculous. Who is making out these cards? I realize we don’t have much choice based on our available roster, but I think hitting Hinske third and Monroe fifth makes one heck of a lot more sense regardless of the lefty-lefty 3/4 problem.
Someone needs to reread Markov.
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John Grabow didn’t look very healthy again tonight. I’ve said this two or three times this season, he doesn’t look right.
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Maholm hasn’t been impressive to me his last three outings so don’t expect too much Tuesday night. Just a wild guess.
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Think about it.
By Jake, on April 26, 2009, at 9:24 pm |
Winning two of three in San Diego, $1,560 at BoDog, Freddy Sanchez benched, $8M savings in ‘10, Jack Wilson put on the 15-day DL,
How ’bout ‘dem Bucs? And just in case you didn’t notice, other than Adam LaRoche, Brian Bixler, and Nyjer Morgan, that was Neal Huntington’s boys out there winning Sunday. Sure, they only went 6-20 with no rbis and three runs scored compared to LaRoche, Bixler, and Morgan who pounded out a 5-10 day with 8 rbis and 5 runs scored, and Ohlendorf did all the rest of the work, but, you get the idea.. maybe there is more to that lineup than anyone realizes? Like, oh… trying to sway ownership into allowing some talent to be dealt for youth down the road? Maybe.. maybe.
Well, we’ve played six series so far.. we won three of them, lost one, and tied in two, we’ve scored an obscene 81 runs in 18 games (4.5 runs per game; obscene because of the limited ‘toolsy’ talent), and held opponents to a measly 55 runs (3.1 runs per game). That’s a 1.4 runs per game split and historically so far out in left field, it’s beyond comprehension.
So let’s take a peek where we are at based on the pre-season schedule analysis. We are already +2 wins from historical expectations with a chance to go up a couple more (and don’t forget one game was postponed in April). We can see that April is our third easiest month based on the strength of schedule using each club’s 2008 winning percentage, and we see that May is the second hardest period of the year behind July before the break.
Now we heard the media say before heading to San Diego that the Padres series would show where the Pirates truly were, but I warned you to be cautious about that statement. The Pads have a lot of problems from the clubhouse to the diamond and we went in there and took care of business as we should have.
But the real test starts now.
We play the Brewers five of the next eight games with the Reds sandwiched in between, then two in St. Louis, two in New York against the Mets, three more at home against the Redbirds, then the Rockies come in for three. That’s a tough 21 games compared to the first 18 we played.
But hold on.. the Brewers are a little vulnerable right now, the Reds have massive holes if they don’t get solid pitching from their starters, the Mets and Cards always play tough at home no matter what, and what happened to the Rockies.. they have really fallen off.
Maybe we’re hitting a few of these clubs at good times? Still, don’t discount the play the next few series.. they are all going to be tough especially in Milwaukee where they have owned us for years.
As a fan, I WANT to sweep the Brewers at home. I WANT to see 10,000 KFC buckets thrown on the field. I WANT to see the Bucs handle them. If they win the first two, I’m on a plane to watch Snell with my own broom. LOL
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God Bless the person who made the decision to put Wilson on the DL. Left middle finger strain.. puh-lease.
Bixler up to play but I would hope Vasquez gets more time behind the harder ground ball pitchers like Duke, Snell, and Maholm.
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I was asked via a reader’s e-mail if I’m starting to get warm and fuzzy yet and my answer was no.. I don’t see anything to make me believe this club is better than the 72 win club I projected. True, we’re on a roll having won more than any other Pirates team since 2002 but don’t forget that the 2002 team was an 89 loss club too. In 1992, we were 23-16 after 39 so let’s see where we are after the Rockies series and talk again.
Still, we all have to be pleased with the hard nose play and the fact players are picking up each other. But just imagine for one second what might have been if Adam LaRoche broke out early in ‘08? Oh my.. the Bay trade might never have gone down.
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Jaramillo has been a pleasant surprise. I’ve been watching his receiving skills closely and, while his blocking mechanics and release times on throws to the bag are much improved over Doumit’s, he’s got a nasty habit of moving his glove too soon after receiving the ball. He needs to understand that umps call the zone based on where the ball lands and learn to hold his mitt a split second longer. I think he’ll get more of the ‘on the black’ calls he’s not getting right now.
At what about his bat? Man, he can absolutely mash a low inside pitch. Since he appears to want to pull everything I’m guessing video will catch up to him because he’s got a few pretty serious holes. But so far nobody seems to know where they are and he’s raking. You have to like his bat speed.
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And kudos to whoever made the decision to play Andy LaRoche every day regardless of the outcome. It’s exactly what was needed and now he’s starting to get some confidence going. Let me tell you, I saw him pick some balls off the turf the last few games that few hot corner Pirates in the last decade would have made a play on. He’s still raw on his thinking and throwing but he’s slowly maturing right in front of our eyes. Oh, and have you seen what Don Long has done to his approach in the box? Whoa.. he’s really loading up now.
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I saw an interesting thread at Pirateball.com’s discussion forum today. Evidently Keith Law made a few comments about Maholm and Duke being back of the order guys which he’s said a few times already this year.
And he’s right – they are.
But what made the thread more interesting to me was the fact some of the fans were questioning Law’s credibility about the Pirates.
They shouldn’t.
I happen to know Keith Law’s name ran across Neal Huntington’s desk for the open AGM slot. No, Law’s cell never rang to the best of my knowledge and the position remains open today showing how far that went, but Law isn’t exactly stupid when it comes to his hometown Bucs. Plus don’t forget, Law worked with Tony LaCava and some of the ”Pittsburgh connection boys” in Toronto so I would suspect Law wants to see the Bucs turned around just as much as all of us do.
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Tom Gorzelanny is getting squeezed big time in 3A by the umps running the circuit. I noticed it a few starts ago and then it continued the start before this one and today it happened again. To Gorzy’s credit, Kratz is way too big to be behind the plate receiving (remember my mentioning the scout’s talk about big body catchers potentially being a disaster?? Kratz is the extreme of that premis.) but it’s more than just Kratz. It’s Gorzy. His command isn’t sharp by any means but he’s not getting good calls either. I’m not sure I understand why.. perhaps something happened this spring we didn’t see? Something last year we missed? Has he become a household name to the umps?
I don’t know. I’ve asked two scouts to give me their impressions the next couple of games he throws to see what they think since I don’t know anyone that was at the game today. And is his velo down?????
Oh, and Ford didn’t make an appearance today.
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Dad always told me good hitters rake all the time. So, what’s up with this dude? 60 AB, .217 BA, 8 strike outs last 12 AB, and more K’s than total bases. And, can he even hit a southpaw?
YAWN.
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I’m not advancing the Brewers series other than to say don’t bet on it.
By Jake, on April 25, 2009, at 9:49 pm |
Thru the first couple of innings the Bucs are wailing Shawn Hill whose body language in between innings on the pine looks like he’s already given up mainly because he can’t find a release point on his two-seamer. Bucs are up 3-0.
Now top 3rd Geer replaces Hill who didn’t look hurt – just dejected. Perhaps Black just wanted someone in who could keep his team close more than Hill being hurt?
Duke’s throwing inside a lot tonight and getting good results.. jamming swings, missed swings, and a few ground balls. But he’s up in the zone too and if the Pads slow down and realize what’s up, I think he’s going to get hit hard. We’ll see. (Update: Hill has a tender right elbow or bicep, not sure which.)
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Bottom third and Gerut grounds one sharply toward the hole on the right side but LaRoche lays out and grabs it and tosses to Duke covering. Very sweet play. That play was back-to-back with Morgan’s closing out the bottom of the second when Burke hit a lite fly into left center that he covered a lot of ground from straight away center to get to. McLouth would have never caught that ball. Two great defensive plays.
The Bucs added two more in the 4th when Vasquez singled into right then Jaramillo hammered a line drive over Gonzalez’s head at first into the right field corner for a double, with Vasquez stopping at third. Duke was finally allowed to swing a bat by Russell and he hammered a fly ball close to the warning track in center allowing Vasquez to score and Jaramillo to take third, and he scored on Morgan’s sac fly.
5-0 Bucs. Duke’s pitching smart.. good plan so far. He elevates on chase pitches and pitches inside, and he’s staying away on offspeed stuff with Padres batters failing to take the pitch the other way – they are trying to pull everything since it’s so slow. So far they haven’t adjusted.
Now in the top of the fifth with two outs, Hinske singled and then Andy LaRoche doubles using a sweet Freddy Sanchez inside-out swing on a two-seamer middle-in and elevated.. the ball hits the chalk line in right field and Hinske scores as Geruts throw is up the 3B line just enough to get by Hundley.
6-0 Bucs through 5 with Duke throwing a three-hitter (62 P, 18 BF).
Considering I thought we should have won Friday nights game had Jackie Wilson not been such a selfish guy, this series has played out like I expected so far. Now if we can just handle Peavy..
Till tomorrow..
(oh my, two out rally in the 6th with Morgan singling thru the box, Sanchez singling thru the right side, then Monroe with a shot into right center field splitting the gap that scores two more. 8-0. I’m off to bed.. time to let Meek and Veal throw a few innings.)
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Hansen on the DL. They are saying back spasms and they made his DL stint retroactive to the 20th meaning it probably happened the day before which was when he was rocked for 4 runs off two hits, a walk, and hit a batter. Oh, and Ross’ home run. Considering the young man hadn’t allowed a run up to that point, perhaps his ego was bruised more than any back muscle? Well that’s ok, it will give him time to go run and cry on the shoulder of his college coach.
He’s replaced by Evan Meek who will be rocked just as bad as Hansen would have been. Just give a little time for film to get around.
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McLouth still out with a pulled muscle in his rib cage area. Makes sense, I mean, didn’t he get a new big money deal this year like Doumit did? Where’s Doumit? That’s right, he’s on the DL too. Who else got the big money this year? Shh.. we better not name them.
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So we lost Dave Davidson huh? That makes sense. I mean, what do we need another young lefty reliever around for anyway? Besides, pinch hit extraordinaire Delwyn Young was too important to pass up on and he needed the roster spot. Oh my.
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Anybody else starting to smell the “we’re the players and we run this show and we don’t give a damn about anything you say” theme starting to take root? Pretty early this year. Pretty early.
Go Jack Wilson!
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Shelby Ford out with wrist inflammation (same as in ST) and is expected back in the next few days.
By Jake, on April 24, 2009, at 8:39 pm |
Let’s try this for one night..
Top 1st.. 10:05 game start
Morgan
Wilson (nice change)
Sanchez
Ad LaRoche
Hinske (figured)
Moss in LF (hmm)
LaRoche
Jaramillo
Snell
McLouth out with oblique problem. Correia throwing on 8 days rest. Ouch.
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Morgan gb 3b, Wilson shallow fb cf, Sanchez strikeout chasing low/away out of zone. Ugly AB’s so far. There’s no stadium radar showing in the broadcast.
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Bot 1
Gerut
Eckstein
Giles
Gonzalez
Headley
Kouzmanoff
Hundley
Rodiguez
Correia
Gerut 1st P FB LF, Eckstein pops out foul to Hinske in right – nice run for the ball, Giles backed out on Snell and then Snell threw the next pitch at his feet and made him dance then FB RF. Three FB outs.
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Top 2
LaRoche 1st P gb 2b w/shift on, Hinske HBP on 2-2 count (left top foot), Moss gb 3b he hustles down line and beats relay extending inning, Andy LaRoche 4 pitch BB, Jaramillo 0-2 to walk (great AB fouled off several on 2-2), Snell w/bases full LD cf scores Moss, Morgan gb 2b
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Bot 2
Gonzalez gets belt-high/outer half 1st P fastball and he drills it over the CF wall HR, Headley is given the same pitch but just gets under it and pops out to shallow CF, Kouzmanoff strike out chasing offspeed away, Hundley 2-2 offspeed Snell shakes off goes for a ball, then Snell throws a 3-2 offspeed pitch (change?) and walks him, Rodriguez up Headley picked off, caught stealing
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Top 3
Wilson 0-2 to 2-2 then gb SS, Sanchez FB RF, LaRoche 3-1 to BB, Hinske (PB, LaRoche to 2B) pop up 3B
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Bot 3
Rodrigguez 1st P hanging slider drilled down RF line for a double, Correia sac bunt Rodriguez to 3B, Gerut FB shallow CF Morgan’s throw goes up 1B side but Rodriguez held, Ecksteain pulls hanging 1-2 slider away down 3b line into corner misplayed by Moss as it rolls around but Rodriguez scored.
2-1 Pads
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Top 4
Moss 2-0 gb 1B, An LaRoche crushed LD CF right at Gerut, Jaramillo strike out heat off plate away swinging
2-1 Pads
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Bot 4
Gonzalez strike out, Headley LD off RF wall 2B (FB knee high middle plate), Kouzmanoff strikeout, Hundley two out rbi double crushed into left centerfield gap (two seamer caught too much plate low/in), Rodriguez 2-1 then INT walk, Correia LD back thru box into CF loads bases, Gerut smokes LD right back to Snell who makes a miracle catch.
Sandwich time for an inning
Snell’s catch
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Top 5
Snell single – he has both hits so far, Morgan bunting and is clearly out of the box with his back foot but isn’t called on it and is out at first, Wilson gb SS, Sanchez strike out
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Bot 5
Eckstein brushed back after hitting the triple then gb 1B, home plate ump Dan Iassogna all of a sudden doesn’t know where the zone is and Giles is walked, Gonzalez fb shallow LF, Headley walks (pitches in the zone but no-calls again), Kouzmanoff first two pitches in the zone but called balls and Snell ends up walking him to fill the bases with walks, Hundley then grounds out to 2B.
Snell walks off field jawing at ump.
3-1 Pads, just a 2 hitter by Correia (both by Snell — Snell at 89 P)
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Top 6
Adam LaRoche 3-2 foul tip not held on to, 3-2 fould Headley just misses in LF, then BB, Hinske gets down, middle, FB and crushes it to RF high on wall Giles goes up and has it in mitt but it falls out for double (first hit by position player) with LaRoche going to 3B, Correia is replaced by Clay Meredith then Moss gb 2B scores LaRoche with Hinske to 3B, Andy LaRoche with a clutch LD CF single scoring Moss, Jaramillo crushes LD right to Giles for single with LaRoche off on pitch making it to third, Young strikeout, with Morgan up Jaramillo steals 2B but stops halway thinking Morgan’s swing was fouled off but it wasn’t but he was safe, then Morgan INT BB, and Wilson strikes out with the bases loaded on two pitches so far out of the zone it would make your head swim. You expected something else?
3-3
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Bot 6
Chavez in for Snell
Rodriguez FB RF, Edgar Gonzalez PH for Meredith who swings on Chavez high heat up and out for strike three, Gerut 1st P gb 2B
Pads are all over 1st pitches tonight
3-3
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Top 7
Mujica in..
Sanchez gb SS (standing 6″ behind batters box), LaRoche strikes out, Hinske strikes out but on 2-2 pitch he check swung, ball hit catchers mitt and bounced to wall, ump called it foul but Hinske never moved to run to first but replay shows the ball didn’t touch bat. Go figure.
3-3
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Bot 7
Chavez back in
Rodriguez FB RF, Grabow in Giles gb 2B, Gonzalez LD CF single, Headley FB CF
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Top 8
Gregerson in
Moss gb 1B, An LaRoche pop up 1B, Jaramillo gets FB outer third and he pulls a LD into RF corner for double, Vasquez PH and FB LCF which Gerut gets a good jump on and with an outstretched glove catches it – nice play, but it swings Lady Luck toward Padres.
3-3
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Bot 8
Yates in (ugghh)
Kouzmanoff gb 2B, Hundley gb 2B, Rodriguez FB shallow CF Morgan comes in for (whew on Yates)
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Top 9
Heath Bell in
Talk about luck swinging.. Morgan gb off plate and he legs it out, Wilson pops up his bunt to the catcher (why is this guy on our roster??), with Sanchez up Morgan was picked off on first throw over – he was leaning toward 2cd, and Sanchez FB RF. Un-be-lievable.
Bot 9
Burnett in (oh my)
I suppose luck just shifted back as Burnett had a 1-2-3 inning. Hairston PH and strikes out, Gerut gb 1B, Eckstein FB CF.
I’m guessing it’s our turn now that they took Bell out of the game.
Top 10
Moreno in
Ad LaRoche FB CF from 3-1 count swinging at ball 4, Hinske pop up 3B, Moss LD hammered and it goes off Adrian Gonzalez’s glove at 1B for a single, An LaRoche gb 3B
3-3
Bot 10
(son just woke up so I’m out of here. I assume we’ll leave Burnett in and he’ll get eaten up thanks to some of that Jackie Wilson kind of love for the org)
oopps.. he just walked Giles who led off, now 2-0 to Adrian Gonzalez but he grounds to 1B and LaRoche gets the force at second but Sanchez’s throw is way off the mark and Gonzalez is safe missing the DP, (bad vibes going on), Headly gb smoked to Wilson which he boots so he can’t turn the DP, then his throw to LaRoche pulls him off the bag so everyone is safe (Wilson has handed the Padres this game all on his own), I can’t watch..
I’m off to feed my youngin.
Lord, he got out of it.. Go Bucs!
Bench Wilson Saturday Russell.
By Jake, on April 24, 2009, at 2:09 am |
I’m down with a sick son who got a fever and rash from his second MMR vaccine getting ready for school this fall. It’s mild but aggravating enough for him to be uncomfortable and not wanting to sleep. Nothing like putting up a 10′ x 10′ tent in the den and watching Sponge Bob all night!
Anyway, nothing much is going on other than a few bloggers or media types wanting opinions on the Bucs early start. I think 16 years of suckatude has taught us all to tread with caution.. and we are. And we should be. Still, it’s nice to see some of the ridiculous optimistic media reports abound right now.. heck, one even has us challenging for the division. Oh my. I think it’s even funnier that many are calling the Padres series a ’serious look’ at where we are really at. Puh-lease.
I do think we’ve learned a big lesson in Pittsburgh though – buying out arb years might appear good business but it begets laziness and indifference on bad clubs. Look at the production we’re all of a sudden realizing from guys in contract years. It’s a mockery. But you know, I don’t blame the players one bit – the Pirates have been cheapskates on player payroll for decades and nothing Huntington and Coonelly do is going to change that mindset deep within the game.
And yes, I saw the Forbes report on the Bucs. They state we have a 35% debt ratio but that’s a joke. This year’s figures are so far off the wall it’s not even worth talking about.
Youngin’s up again so I’m out of here. I have some stat work I wanted to post tonight but it can wait until Friday sometime.
By Jake, on April 22, 2009, at 11:13 pm |
What a roll. Fantasy house experts are raising the bar suggesting the Bucs will win as many as 80 (can you believe that??), readers are back e-mailing five times a day here, traffic at this site has shot through the roof, and even some of the fans who have been sitting on the sideline for the last seven-plus years are now e-mailing and asking, is this team for real?
The obvious answer to that is, yes, they are. Well, at least so far they are.
“You just witnessed five [Joe] Kerrigan and [Perry Hill] wins.” — anonymous NL scout
Make no mistake about it, the Pirates manhandled two of the better teams in the game by exploiting gapping holes in their ships. We out-foxed them, out-pitched them, out-ran them, and out-defended them.. game after game after game. We were clutch when we needed to be, lucky when we had to be, and smart upstairs when it counted most.
It was no fluke.
And I’ve read your e-mails.. you have taken me to task on my Lady Luck = unexpected wins analogy. I respect every single one of your thoughts. And some of you stated it best when you asked, why does it have to be luck.. why can’t it be part of the process/part of the plan. It can be. It has been.
But historical stats tell us, at this point, luck has more to do with it than any other possible process.
Consider this very basic stat: our team ERA entering Wednesday’s game was 3.00, best in the NL. But our Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was 4.56. That’s a 1.56 spread between the two which is not only four or five times average, but a solid indicator there are more balls in play being turned to outs than expected. Sure enough, our defensive efficiency (percentage of balls in play turned to outs) is a crazy high 74% (2cd best in NL), our strand rate is a crazy high 78% (2cd best in NL), and our starters have allowed a scant .267 batting average on balls in play (also 2cd best in NL).
Maybe a better way to show you what I mean is this – over the first 123 innings that we have pitched, we’ve allowed 105 hits and 51 walks while striking out just 69. Our opponents, in 121 innings, have allowed 126 hits and 43 walks, but struck us out 101 times. If you normalize the 121 innings to our 123, that’s about 127 hits allowed, 43 walks, and 102 strikeouts. So, that’s 4.15 batters we have faced per inning on average which is about the same as our opponents yet we are allowing one extra man to reach every three innings on average which, so far, has been erased in double plays (our twenty to opponents eight) and other base outs (caught stealing, pickoffs, etc).
Throw in that our pitching is allowing almost a 20% line drive rate, we’re hitting just .237 on the road versus .288 at PNC so far, we have a very low 8% walk rate at the plate (5th worst in MLB), our batting average on balls in play is just .314 (lower third of all teams), and for advanced sabermetric folks, our WPA+ is MLB’s worst at 6.78 and our WPA/LI is in negative figures.
In other words, what we’re doing doesn’t add up historically in any statistical context. If the ‘65 Dodgers starting rotation of Koufax, Drysdale, Osteen, and Podres couldn’t rack up a 1.56 ERA to FIP spread, why in earth do you think a staff that includes Snell, Maholm, Duke, and Ohlendorf should be able to continue theirs? I hear you, we’re doing it all the same in a small sample size. You’re right, but that takes me back to the luck factor – we’ve been exceedingly lucky, whether or not you want to buy into it. Oh, we’ve played good baseball too, but not sustainable .600 baseball. Or sustainable .500 baseball. Or .450 baseball, for that matter.
I suppose the question now becomes, is it possible for us to keep rolling along with Lady Luck guiding our way? I guess that depends on how much you want to believe in this roster. In the Padres series we miss Chris Young but face Peavy on get away day, open against Correia, then face Shawn Hill in the middle game. That’s not exactly a dominant starting group we’re facing but don’t forget we’re playing the Padres (we’re just 5-15 against last three) at Petco (2-5 last two years). More importantly to me is that we typically have a hard time in our first west coast trip each year but maybe that’s where guys like Hinske can help us out?
I honestly don’t know when Lady Luck is going to walk away but the Padres are playing with just as much luck so something has to give and it’s usually the home team that walks away with a tick more. The Padres are banged up and have a mix matched club this year, and at the same time it will be like pitching at PNC – our guys should keep the ball in the yard and force them to beat us with speed and defense, which they really don’t have. Tough call, but I like our first two matchups but Young has been very good so far this year and has owned us. Hopefully we win the series with 2 of 3. But…
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Maholm was looking good the first time through the lineup – 32 pitches facing the minimum and four ground ball outs early. But then it unraveled on him but a combination of Marlins youth and his defense quickly got him out of a jam. Men on the corners and no outs and Ramirez hit a little tapper to Maholm who threw to second for the force but then Bonifasio broke late to the plate and was thrown out for a quick DP. Sure enough, the next batter was Helms and he pulled a Maholm heater down the left field line with Morgan shaded toward center and he legged out a double scoring Ramirez from second. In the inning the Marlins had three hits and two stolen bases but managed just one run.
Unbelievable.
Without going into the entire game I’ll just say that the Marlins drew close and then handed it to the Pirates with poor defensive work. Numerous bad relay throws and balls off outfielder’s gloves were their main problems, but my man Ronny Paulino’s errand throw to past third trying to catch Morgan stealing didn’t help either.
I expected a lot more defensive miscues and problems this series on the Marlins end than I saw so they were tight compared to what I had seen so far from them this year. PNC is not an easy park to come up and try and learn center field in a series and Maybin, who was eaten up, showed exactly why McCutchen will probably come up and take a corner position. Just a guess.
It ended up being a very weird series.. very cold, rainy, and more like hockey weather than baseball. The Marlins were clearly out of their safety net.
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I mentioned this the other day and it seemed to confuse a few people so I’ll say it again more clearly.
Adam LaRoche owes Pittsburgh fans. He dogged us for two years in the early season and everyone kept saying that’s the way he is, but that’s pure BS as we now see as he heads down the road toward free agency. Simply put, if he could see the ball early this year, he could see it early any year – he obviously just didn’t want to… didn’t plan to.
I won’t be sorry to see him go out the door.
C-ya.. take Jackie baby with ya dude.
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Rumor city: Has a rift developed amongst some of the limited partners and the Nuttings? That’s what one source is telling me and the end result might be that the Nuttings will be buying even more stock later this year. Considering the down year, you have to wonder where they will get the cash to buy them out, and also what, if any, ramifactions it has on dumping player salary and draft allocations?
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Bryan Morris is said to be responding well to an aggressive stretching and strengthening program. Here’s hoping it all comes together for him.
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