McCutchen's routes cost us early, pen costs us late

Through the first four innings the Astros had managed just one run off Snell and that was sort of lucky.  In the second with Lee at first from a low line drive single that wasn’t caught by Vazquez, Berkman swung at strike three for the first out with Lee on the run.  Jaramillo’s throw went high but Vazquez did a good job of handling it and putting a fast swipe tag on the sliding Lee to get a double play.  Problem was, Lee was safe.

Blum then doubled on a line drive into right which would have scored Lee and then Kepplinger hit a light line drive into shallow center that froze McCutchen for a second too long (his first body movement was actually backwards) and the ball fell in.  McCutchen gloved the ball on one bounce and threw a one-hopper to the plate but it tailed up the first base line and the sliding Blum was safe scoring the Astros first run.

In the fifth with the score 1-1 and one out, Kepplinger doubled into the right field corner and then Quintero hit a long fly ball into right center which McCutchen froze on again, then his first step was the wrong direction so he immediately turned and rocketed toward the warning track only to miss the ball by two steps as it went for a double scoring Kepplinger and putting the Astros up 2-1.

So up to that point both runs scored off Snell were directly the result of late routes by McCutchen unlike Saturday night’s game when a line drive went off his glove but that runner was eventually stranded. 

Pence then walked in the seventh with one out and stole second with Lee up and later scored when Lee hit a grounder through the right side putting them up 3-1.

We got two runs back in the 7th with very nice bat control when McCutchen came to the plate with the bases loaded and no outs and ground one to the right side allowing a run to score and both runners to advance.  Then Morgan lined what seemed to be his first hit in weeks into center to score the second run, and Adam LaRoche ground into a double play to end the threat.

The Astros came right back in the bottom of the 7th frame after Snell was relieved by Steven Jackson who gave up a two out walk to Bourne with Kata at first and then Tejada hit a grounder back thru the box that Vazquez managed to glove on a nice play, but he tried a glove flip to Sanchez covering that Sanchez didn’t handle.  That allowed Kata, who was off on the swing of the bat, to round third and head home and score the go-ahead run before Sanchez had the chance to recover the ball and throw home.  The Astros never looked back as they scored two more in the 8th.

Yet another tough loss to swallow. 

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I pray nobody is hanging on McCutchen’s defensive play right now because the young man is expected to make a lot of mistakes considering the position he has been thrust into.  And he’s making them.  But it’s going to take some time.. easily through 2009 and I’d guess half of 2010 before we start seeing more consistent gold glove type of defense he’ll eventally mature to have.  In the mean time while we’ll see flashes here and there, he also has to learn the league batters and parks, our defensive schemes, and ball flights off our pitchers.   That’s not an overnight gig.

He’ll be fine, but it’s going to cost us some defensive runs allowed down the road. 

His swing has been steady and sweet, he’s laying off tough pitches, he’s hitting not only quality fastballs but offspeed pitches as well, and he’s spraying the ball, all of which are solid indicators he’s comfortable in the box.  That’s a great sign and I’m guessing that will keep his motor running.  I won’t mention that he appears to have a hole the size of the grand canyon nobody seems to have figured out yet but if you watch his swing closely, you’ll see it.

One reader wondered if I thought McCutchen was really ready for prime time and I told him I felt he was, but I  didn’t like the circumstances which lead to his arrival.  Essentially, he became a pawn for ownership trying to difuse the McLouth trade.  That’s not the way I wanted to see him brought up.. the timing was poor.  He’s in a tough position and was moved through the system fairly quick for a high school player, but I’m in the camp that believes speed guys tend to reach their prime earlier than other position players do anyway so my thought is that he’s ready when you also consider his play in 3A.  He’s going to have to make a few more adjustments than McLouth or a Duffy ever had to make but I think Cutch is strong enough mentally to handle it.  Duffy wasn’t ready and it was easy for McLouth who sat on the pine early for the most part.

Lastly, the only other reservation I have about Cutch being brought up now is that his clock started when it didn’t have to if he was brought up in September.  There’s no way Huntington can send the young man down in the future now – he’s here to stay regardless, unless he just collapses. 

This also might bring him to arb one year earlier than if he had just a September callup and then began play in 2010.  I’ll have to ask around to be sure.  If that’s the case, then that’s a blow considering we don’t have the rest of the wave ready to play with him.  Alvarez and Tabata are at least another year away from seeing Pittsburgh, the Bucs don’t seem willing to bring up Lincoln this year unless it’s for a cup of coffee in September probably before he goes off to play some winter ball, we don’t have a first baseman for the wave unless it becomes Doumit (God forbid) or we resign LaRoche which I seriously doubt, Ford isn’t ready for second, we still have a reliance on Wilson at short although Vazquez is signed through 2010 but even 2011 might be stretching it for Friday, and that’s before we talk about pitching.

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Speaking about pitching, buried in Dejan’s Sunday Post-Gazette article was this blurb:

“Gorzelanny, despite being effective in relief to the point Russell has used him in situations where he clearly does not trust others, still sounds destined to return to Indianapolis to resume starting. But [Morton being promoted to Pittsburgh] might get him blocked, so a trade is a possibility there, too, especially given the hot market for major-league ready starters in Class AAA.”

The Pirates have run Gorzelanny’s value right into the ground and other clubs have noticed as I’ve discussed here often over the last few months.  Morton isn’t a Gorzelanny replacement – that’s insane talk.  But the fact remains Gorzelanny is on the outs with the Pirates front office and field staff and that has obvious negative connotations.

If you were shocked on the McLouth trade, then watching Gorzelanny get run out the door should almost kill you because he is, perhaps, the most valuable asset the big club has at this point outside of Doumit whose value tanks because of his health history, McCutchen, Maholm, and possibly Andy LaRoche.  Unfortunately, Gorzelanny took a massive hit with too many innings during the 2006-2007 campaign and our front office has only aggravated his condition ever since, especially now in 2009. 

However, I am in agreement the next player out the door will be a pitcher and Snell is the likely candidate as he clears about $10M off the books for the Nuttings which will give them their 2010 draft money.  Plus, he’s the only other player outside of Maholm and Doumit who have contracts of value past the 2009 season if we assume both Sanchez and Wilson’s options are not picked up in 2010, or they are dealt this July which obviously the front office isn’t planning on doing, or doesn’t feel it’s possible or worthwhile, considering they dumped McLouth to clear the red ink they needed for the draft.  (how about that run-on sentence.. whew!)

That means starting in 2010 we are likely to see player payroll less than $25MM while the Nuttings rake in $50MM or more from MLBAM and revenue sharing and whatever else.  Since they likely lost their tax advantage after the ten years McClatchy’s contract ended, I assume much of that $25MM could be going toward taxes, but that’s a wild guess since I haven’t the slightest clue.

Bottom line?  Expect more dealing, and expect it to be pitching.  I’m in agreement with Dejan on that and I think the way the Pirates have killed Gorzelanny’s momentum, he’s the most likely to go unless he gets sent down to 3A here almost immediately.  If he is, then I would guess Snell.  What will be interesting to see is the value Huntington places on Gorzelanny against Morton who is unproven yet at the ML level.  We’ll see after the other trades and/or roster moves are made after the draft.

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Perrotto chimes in at Baseball Prospectus that the Giants might be interested in Adam LaRoche.  Gee, I wonder where I heard about LaRoche to the Giants before??  It’s a bit late for that move now considering the Giants are 8.5 out already behind a very talented Dodgers club.  Sabean would have to pull a Littlefield at this point and I doubt he’ll do that, save-my-job mode or not.

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“After losing the first two games of the series, to be able to come back in the eighth was important,” said McLouth, whose game-tying RBI double put him in position to score on Yunel Escobar’s game-winning single to left off Carlos Villanueva.”  — MLB.com

Just what we need to be hearing.  Ughh..  But good for Nate.

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The Neal Huntington Show Sunday was very informative.  You can listen to it here.

Highlights include:

 –  the Bucs are a deeper, stronger organization long-term after the McLouth trade;
 –  he believes McCutchen will prevent more runs than McLouth (no, he didn’t say when it would start);
 –  he believes Locke immediately becomes 2cd – 3rd best pitching prospects in our system;
 –  he believes we received three “above-average” players in the McLouth trade;
 –  and he believes the Pirates will be in the top third in money spent during this draft.

His voice appeared to quiver at times but he stood his ground as if he actually believed what he was saying.  I’ll have more on this conversation after the draft.

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Bryan Morris was activated from the DL and started at Lynchburg today.  It appeared he might have run out of gas late but who cares as long as his arm stays attached!  After he settles in a few starts I’ll try to get a reading on his velocity and sharpness of his offspeed stuff.

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On to Atlanta where the McLouth trade will be crammed down our throats for a few days.  Anybody want to guess that we sweep them and McCutchen goes 10-12 as a part of the trade benefits?  Ughh.. ok, probably not.

The Bucs are 9-26 last 35 games in Atlanta but are 6-2 overall in our last 8 meetings.  Funny thing, Duke is 8-0 last 8 Monday starts and the Braves are 1-10 in their last 11 Monday games so isn’t that a bit wild?  Complicating matters is the fact we’ve only won game one of the last 14 series 28.6% of the time and won just 23% of our last 13 games where we faced a right-hand starter on the road. 

But this isn’t an ordinary road series.. this is against the Braves where Nate McLouth was traded to with the Pirates players are still fuming about the deal, so throw away traditional anaysis this series.

Kawakami has been pitching very good the last few times out (less than three earned runs every start since May 1) as has Duke which has surprised me with all his road quality starts this year.  I never expect Duke to pitch well away but he’s been defying me all season.  The Braves have been in an abnormal hitting funk around the Mendoza line last 5 or 6 games which is never a good sign and on the flip side, we’ve been pounding right hand starters all year so this could be one of those games.  Perhaps to help remove some of the sting of the trade, the Braves will hand us game one as a token and then come out mashing Ohlendorf and Karstens?  Just a guess.

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