Tyler Matzek is getting all the love from Internet evaluators Callis and Law to many of the media mags, but there are two prep players who many believe are better than Matzek – Matt Purke and Donovan Tate.
My initial liking of Purke began with comparison videos I saw on a few of the prep pitchers – Turner, Wheeler, Matzek, Purke, and Hobgood. Next I scoured the Internet to find as much ‘dirt’ as I could and then I finally had a chat with a Florida scout I respect who had him as the #1 prep player in the land back in March. I scoured more video and even talked to some anonymous scouts in discussion forums.. I liked what I heard and what I saw.
Two weeks ago I went back to the Florida scout to see if Purke had fallen on his board because I was having a hard time finding anyone with the same love for the kid as he and I had, but he said no, Purke was still #1. Then last week another scout I talk to frequently finally opened his war chest and told me he had Purke #1 as well. Today it finally came together when two prospect guides (one was Perfect Game) announced they had Purke #1 as the best arm behind Strasburg.
I knew it would eventually surface that Purke was the best because it was a pick I had become very comfortable with, and my sources were A++. Yet it was driving me nuts not seeing the young man get any play with any of the other ‘media’ draft gurus.
Anyway, I graded Purke as above average in four of the five main scouting interests with part of the fifth - signability – being the only raw issue. He’s a tough sign.. a very tough sign. But he is with reason because he knows he is the best arm in the draft behind Strasburg and I found out today there are other scouts who believe that too. But is he heads and tails above, say, Wheeler or Matzek for the hard sign money? No, he isn’t. We could just as easily draft Crow or a couple of the prep players and sign them quick at $4M or less and not have to deal with the hassles associated with Purke.
But we shouldn’t.
Consider this – the difference between having Purke and not having Purke is about $3MM I’m hearing tonight. Evidently most clubs believe his value is in the $3MM range, some a bit higher, some a bit lower, but around there. Purke is said to be wanting Porcello money around $7MM but most believe he’ll sign around $6MM. He isn’t worth that today but that’s just it – we’re paying today based on his projectability in three years by keeping him in our stable and out of college and, at that value, he’s worth every penny of $6MM. Plus, in three years he leapfrogs ahead of Matzek and the other prep arms in projections and if that was to happen, he’d command a tick lower than Strasburg money so the $6MM would look like peanuts.
He fits our park, he fits our long-term plan, he fits our character, and he fits our strengths. What he seemingly doesn’t fit is our ownership’s restricted budget. The Pirates have to continue being aggressive in the draft and when we hear statements like ‘if it comes down to two players who are similar and one of them has lower demands then we’ll select the lower demand player so we can allocate the remaining funds to other players’ and we don’t select the better player, we’re not heading in the right direction. We need to go after players like Purke AND hard after any other hard sign players our front office deems appropriate without budget constraints.
You are either rebuilding or not.. put up or shut up.
The ‘Internet evaluators’ don’t have Purke high on their cards because of his signability issues, they don’t even rate his talent as high as other pitchers in this draft, but I’m here to tell you that there are some very respected and dialed-in people in this game who say Purke leads the class by a bigger margin than might be suspected.
There are only a handful worthy second-tier players in this draft and Purke is easily one of them and the Pirates need to select him with the #4 pick Tuesday. Passing on him to be selected by another club willing to pay for him would be a huge mistake and one we can’t afford to make.
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Theres not an obvious pick at #4………some scouts will have Purke higher, Crow higher, Matzek etc etc…
You even disagree with what 90% of scouts are saying in Ackley being the best pure hitter in the draft…..
Quit trying to stir up something when they’re nothing to complain about(at least yet).
we will draft crow if he is there at #4. If he is gone they will more than likly get tony sanchez c from bc. I wouldent mind grant green.
Matzek’s velocity is widely reported to be “easier” than Purke’s max-effort delivery. I don’t see the vast talent level between Matzek and Purke to warrant spending an additional $2-4 million on Purke.
I would rather sign Matzek for $3-3.5M and take the other money and sign lower round talent to persuasive bonuses (like Grossman and Miller last year) and infuse more talent into the system.
Many people think Matzek is better straight up over Purke, but even if Purke was slightly better it doesn’t warrant his exorbinant bonus demands.
What about Shelby Miller?
I’m sorry Jake, but you are just attempting to stir the pot man. We all know you are going to find something wrong with what the Pirates do, you always do. If you agreed with people who get paid to do this,and again I ask why don’t you get paid to do this, than this blog wouldn’t get the viewership. Good try stiring stuff up champ, they take crow tomorrow buddy. You are not nearly as connected as you make yourself out to be, have fun in fantasy land with your “sources”
Sounds like some of the readership are eating Cheerios and drinking beer tonight Jake. I’m also wondering about Miller, isn’t he legit at four?
@charles…so if you don’t agree with Jake, you must be drunk?? I would think that if you beileve even one tenth of what the “super genius” says, then you must be the one drinking. He has a cute enjoyable site, but I will stick to the big boys who get a paycheck for doing this stuff to give me analysis on who the Pirates should take.
L
The player i think the Buccos will take unfortunately will be shocking the world- Tony Sanchez – C – BC
Long time reader but first time commenting and I would like to know who you expect N Huntington to take in the first round. Keep grinding it out Jake; I don’t always agree with your opinions but I do enjoy the read.
If we take Sanchez, I will be furious…just throwing that out there. I want more pitching, you can never have enough pitching….ever
I just have that not so good feeling , about the Buccos draft.
In your Draft related post on June 1 when you first mentioned Purke, you called him “signable” and estimated it would take 2.5MM to get him signed.
“I’m guessing it would take about $2.5MM (think Jarrod Parker).”
Now that you sources have provided you with drastically different informaiton regarding his signability only a week later, doesn’t that make you want to re-think your projection? I mean he went from a below-slot guy in your mind to WAY over slot in 7 days. Has he gotten that much better this week?
There are quite a few good choices available and we’ll all P&M in just a few hours regardless of who it is.
Purkee, at the amount being bandied about, would be insane for the Pirates-as would any H.S. pitcher. I like the idea of going for a high school arm, but not sure I’d go with one as early as #4. Donovan Tate might be worth it, but I don’t see the Bucs handing him what he wants at the risk of him going to college.
I’d like to see Crow in the first round, Gibson-if he’s available, as a sandwich pick and Sanchez in the 2nd round. The Bucs might get lucky and grab somebody in round 2 who has slipped. But they have to make a quality choice at #1.
Anybody know what Crow might ask for?
Hey Jake, just want to appologize. I went a bit over the top, we are all adults(I think), and I should act like one. I want to ask you, what are your thoughts on Crow? I agree he will be a quick sign, but appears to have decent stuff. Thanks, Mark
Lets trade our four overall and two seconds for Strasbourg.
Jake - I am not in tune with the HS and College player, but I enjoy following the blog and am intrigued by the business of baseball. Do you believe that the Bucco’s will not be contending for the playoff until 2012/2016? If so why would they not draft more hitting prospects? They seem easier to project performance. Baseball enthusiasts love a pitchers dual, but most folks would rather see a high scoring game. From a baseball as a business standpoint, would not filling the stand with fans salivating for a the New Lumber company be a smart option? Then use the extra $$ to buy pitching?
–Tom
I had a dream the other night that we traded Snell to the Mets for Brian Schneider and a prospect…I need a life!
a predraft agreement with Sanchez???? please say it isn’t so
Keith Law rumors have the Pirates drafting Tony Sanchez – C – BC, rumor has it that pre draft deal is done with him.
The only thing that will save this draft is if some players fall and the Pirates go overslot and sign em.
Crow is supposed to fall to the 2nd rd now…..who knows.
Purke is apparently falling fast as well with his money demands, same with Miller. I can’t wait to read Jake’s take if/when they select Sanchez. I don’t think this team could really take the PR blow from that selection with McLouth’s departure still fresh. They cannot count on anyone being available for their second pick that they truly want. Drafting Sanchez should cause a boycott or revolt or something. He will be tagged just like Moskos in the minors. I am hopeful that Law was fed bogus info or the Bucs are bluffing, although I see no reason to use Sanchez, no one in slots 1-3 would even consider taking him. We’ll see soon enough.
then why don’t you take your moron attitude down the road and hang with the big boys? Don’t let the door hit your butt.
> Matzek’s velocity is widely reported to be “easier” than Purke’s max-effort delivery.
Purke doesn’t have a “max effort” delivery. That’s nuts. His mechanics are clean, but I agree Matzek’s velocity is deeper but I prefer Purke’s command better. A lot better.
> would rather sign Matzek for $3-3.5M and..
watch him go on the DL in a year? That’s what I’m concerned about. Check his workload closer.
> and take the other money and sign lower round talent to persuasive bonuses ..
in theory that sounds nice.. the problem is there are few Grossman’s this year and those that are there are likely to be snapped up in the first few rounds since the talent in this draft is so thin.
more probable DL candidate in my mind and a few other minor wrinkles I hear. But very intriguing.
Can’t please ‘em all Charles. I’ve never even tried.
I don’t see Sanchez but who knows what this group will do with Nutting’s money.
Dont be surprised Jake, hell John Braves MVP Russell brought in Jeff warning track Karstens in instead of Capps tonight.
> I would like to know who you expect N Huntington to take in the first round
Great question. Either Ackley or Green. I’ve been going on the assumption all along Tate won’t be available at #4 but if he is there, I wouldn’t be surprised if our FO doesn’t consider him since he’s a two-way player they can split bonus money up on. Hey, plus he’s intriguing.
I will be surprised if the Pirates make the right draft pick.
I’ve heard some numbers on purke 4 to 7 million signing bonus area.
tiz – great question. I guesstimated Purke’s true value in the first post and had him at Parker money which I thought was pretty fair. Talking to the scouts over the weekend I came to realize that when a high school player is signed you have to pay somewhat of a difference between their future projection (as a draftable junior out of college) and their current value as a high school player. At that point Parker’s money was too low on him. Call it a learning curve for me.
That being said, I believe he easily fits in with MLB’s recommended slot money at 4/1 (around $3.5MM) so any difference goes into breaking his desire to head off to college (about $2.5MM sources say). So the question becomes, is he worth that $2.5MM?
I believe he is because almost anyone we sign at 4/1 is going to take the $5MM range or better anyway (Ackley/Tate/probably Matzek are good examples I think) so what we’re really talking about is an extra $1MM for Purke. And yes, at that point I think he’s worth the extra dough because his character and makeup take him over the top, along with his pretty easy projectability. I think he’s one of the few prep arms that could be in Pittsburgh in four years, for example.
Look at it another way.. would I rather have Vazques around in 2010 or Purke signed?
(edit 10:30 am — I finally settled in to review the signing demands of other players which I never do until I’m done evaluating players and saw Ackley wanting $9MM, Matzek wanting a tick more than Purke which is over $7MM, and Tate is seeking $6MM. I still believe Purke gets signed at around $5MM).
Crow is said to want slot money and should be a quick sign.
As for taking a high school arm, I agree Salem, it’s risky business but southpaw HS arms are somewhat less risky and some kids that have easy mechanics (think Duke) are easier to feel comfortable about.
have faith BM!
easy answer………..gimme Purke over Vasquez anyday of the week.
In all seriousness what is your take if the Pirates draft Tony Sanchez 1-4?
Love him at 49 or 53 but NOT 4
Sanchez at 4 is a big overdraft considering the talent ahead of him. Think of him as third-tier.
not a problem Mark. Crow is a ‘safe’ pick for the Bucs because of the PR behind him but most scouts I’ve talked to see him as a good candidate to either go under the knife or destined to be in the pen with only two pitches (think Snell). Live arm, no doubt, but too many questions for as far along as he is in his career and his age.
> Do you believe that the Bucco’s will not be contending for the playoff until 2012/2016?
earliest window I see developing is 2014+ Tom.
> If so why would they not draft more hitting prospects?
That’s not a bad philosophy Tom because PNC makes average pitchers a tick better than they are by it’s nature. But on that same note, we have a park which supresses offensive power so why not lean on developing pitching if all things are equal since the end result is more value in the system which is more readily tradable as a commodity?
> From a baseball as a business standpoint, would not filling the stand with fans salivating for a the New Lumber company be a smart option?
Sure, that makes sense from the owners perspective but I think winning is also a requirement or those fans won’t show up regardless of how many hit and runs there are every night. I mean, fans are naturally competitive too, don’t you think?
Plus again I have to emphasis, building a ‘lumber company’ with PNC isn’t as easy as it sounds. How many years have we even been around 800 runs scored? Last year in the first half we were approaching that and the FO tore it apart as a result.
Sanchez comments that he wont demand big money with his pick is the right words the Nuttings want to hear. http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09160/976055-63.stm?cmpid=pirates.xml
All this will sign right away talk by Sanchez have the Buccos drooling, Jake. Dont be surprised if Sanchez is their guy, and then at the mlb network draft coverage should play the Price is Right losing horns if and when the Buccos pick Tony Sanchez- C , BC
Ian Smell is so crappy in my eyes i would take a Niese and Ruben Tejada package for him if the Mets would offer that or Tejada for Snell straight up.