(Edit 10:20 PM Monday eve.. the final score was 9-5 Pittsburgh not 8-5 Bucs as I had projected. LOL So if you waited late for the rich and famous that use BoDog to make their mistakes before you got in, you just pocketed 14%. Not a bad haul for one night. Now keep your money in your pocket the rest of the series. * hint *. Man I love this game.)
If the Brewers expect to have a chance to play meaningful baseball in October, they need to sweep the Pirates. Bad. If the Pirates expect to make a meaningful run at next year’s #1 draft pick, they need to be swept. Bad. So what’s really going to happen?
Vegas sees this series as a blowout while thinking Wednesday’s game could get rained out. Every sports junket wizard has the Brewers rolling over the Pirates all three games. Even Pirates fans are planning to avoid the big screen the next three days because they took enough of a butt whipping over the last week to last a decade, so why add insult to injury?
Well guess what? Ole’ Jake thinks game 1 is ours. Believe me, it’s not because we’ve been playing good baseball on Monday, that’s for sure (1-5 last 6 albeit 7-7 on the year), and it’s not because we have a rich history of beating the Brewers, because we don’t (.324 winning percentage last 55 games against them), and it sure isn’t because we have our “A” game going, because, man, we’re looking around for our “C” game much less anything better (15-36 last 51 games played for a robust .294 winning percentage).
No – it’s much deeper than all that.. it’s called regression. Oh, plus a few other intangibles.
Yes, I know the Brewers have been absolutely mauling right-hand pitching lately and, yes, I know we have Kevin Hart taking the mound, but you know what? While most of you have probably been turning off the games early over the last week, I kept watching the misery and I saw some good things. For instance, even though Doumit might not be seeing very many pitches lately, he stung the ball even though they went for outs. Same with McCutchen, and a few others.
We’re going to score some runs off Villanueva.. go to the bank on it. And we’re going to score more runs off the Brew Crew bullpen. Go to the bank on that too. So it boils down to this in my mind – can we score more than Hart is going to give up, because he is going to give up some runs. I think we can.. I think we will.
And I think it will be the kind of loss that sends the Brewers into a clubhouse meeting after the game.
Now back to our regularly scheduled pessimistic post.
Are you kidding me? Our guys come out every game looking like they are on 50 mg of Valium (uh, where’s the ball man?), our President is rolling around looking over everyone’s shoulder like they really have a chance of losing a chance to play with this pathetic roster of misfits, our field staff appear to be lost in space, our advance scouting is lost in space, and the only game plan we have is to go out and pretend we’re ballplayers.
And we have to play the Brewers in three who have been raking out almost 9 runs per game last five no thanks to a slugging percentage output two-and-one-half times the Pirates output, and we have to put on the field a group of guys who have managed a collective .187 batting average and .557 OPS over the same five games while our pitching has allowed a .612 SLG/.391 OBP/1.003 OPS?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Yeah baby, like, we really have a chance, huh? R U kidding me?
It’s a classic tale of two potential outcomes.. on paper Vegas is more than right.. I see an 85% probability we get schooled once again this entire series. 85%! That’s ridiculously high.
But that’s why I started this post off with the optimist view because that’s where I am. I honestly think we have a chance at game one IF — read my lips — ** IF ** – Kevin Hart doesn’t self destruct because of his last outing, and that very possibly could happen. I just don’t think it will.
Look for an 8-5 type Bucs win with the Brewers scratching their head wondering what the heck just happened knowing they could have gained a game on the Cardinals who are likely going to be handed their own schooling in LA.
If Hart does implode early, then turn the set off folks because it’s going to get very, very ugly.
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Those that asked – I think Strasburg signs. And no, I’m not looking toward the 2010 draft because there isn’t anything there that can help this club in 2010, 2011, 2012, or 2013. Why worry about it? If we get Harper, we get Harper. If we get Sano (talk is heating up now that we might indeed land him), then we get Sano. That’s great. But we have some serious issues to work through long before any of those guys will help us.
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Dejan linked to Cory Giger’s piece on Pedro Alvarez where he explained he believes Alvarez won’t be brought up because of business reasons (putting off arbitration one year), but I don’t buy that excuse. It very well may be the organization will take that path, but when you consider Alvarez’s commercial value today versus five years when there (hopefully) will be a more competitive product on the field, then it’s a no-brainer – you bring him up now and sell all the tickets you can.
And the reason for that is pretty simple to me.. if you buy into the belief Bob Nutting is going to spend down the road to keep franchise type players, then you have to believe the Pirates are going to want to extend Alvarez in 2012 which can/will control for the additional year cost in his overall package. But if you buy into the theory that Nutting is not going to pay to keep Alvarez once he exits arb, then Giger’s piece makes more sense because the Bucs will want to keep him buried to keep him around for that extra year before he departs.
And there’s another reason to bring him up today that is even larger, in my book. What happens if Perry Hill isn’t around when Alvarez does come up? Better put, do you believe Hill’s replacement – whenever that may be – can be anywhere near as good as Hill? I certainly don’t considering last year we had.. had.. who did we have?? So what is the future value price of Alvarez spending no less than 30 – 45 days exclusively with Hill versus a potential nobody? Off the charts.
There’s no excuse for him sitting in 2A. He came out of a strong program in a strong division – he can handle the bigs right now. All this talk of waiting to get one additional cheap year is the kind of stuff that has hurt us in the past.. it almost took McCutchen out mentally, it has taken others out of the game mentally, and now we’re pushing the envelope on Alvarez. No-brainer, I say bring him up.
But they won’t.
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Photo credit: Dejan Kovacevic - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
I can’t figure out why I keep thinking of Kevin McClatchy when I look at that photo..
Related posts:
“I’m not looking toward the 2010 draft because there isn’t anything there that can help this club in 2010, 2011, 2012, or 2013. ”
Really Jake thats a pretty bold statement. Id say the sure bets in the brewers series would be o/ the total
Were prob gonna lose atleast 2 of 3… does it realy matter, I would rather lose over 100 games to ensure a 1st overall pick. Im still pulling for some of the players to produce like Cutch and a few of the pitchers, but besides that, right now winning doesnt matter…just grow as MLB players and a team. Also any word on how Tony Sanchez is doing and when can we expect to see him in the Burgh
George, Sanchez is doing real well here in WV. He is hitting well and has thrown out his share of runners. To early to tell when he will arrive in Pit. Will need to see him in AA hopefully sometime next year. I agree with the winning and losing. We will find out tonight if we need pick 1 or 2.
Jake im with u on Alvarez. The question is were they really dumb enough to not look down the road and put his build and fielding combined with the gaping hole that has lived with the team since 1982. Looks like he will spend the winter learning 1b. He went to Vandy shouldnt take too long. I believe if they had made this move early he would be here. I guess they gave a former non NH guy a shot in Pearce. I know thats what brings me to the park Steve Pearce.
Jake,
Gotta give you props. You nailed it. Bucs won 9-5, extremely close to your prediction of 8-5. Hopefully you had some cash riding on it.
Jake hammered it down correctly. I’m glad the buccos got their top picks into minors and signed. Rays faled so far on not getting their 1st or 2nd rounders in, Nats still have locked down Strasburg. Tony Sanchez has been playing well at WV since he got in the 340′s and throwing out base runners to the point where they arent testing him hardly at all he still has some troubles at times fielding the ball behind home plate at times. The other picks have looked pretty good.
LOL Purke wanting over 6 mil at 14. That is an extreme overslot if the Rangers signed him White got 2.25 at 15. I’m glad we got Sanchez into the system we needed a catcher and Purke is money greedy.
Its official, Strasburg has signed with Nats. So getting the number two pick next year to try to get Strasburg is a non-issue. We need to get to number one to get Harper. Or at least number two. Not sure what Harper’s demands will be, but if they are significant, and we can assume they will be, the Nats may not be willing to throw out $15 million contracts in consecutive years. Who knows. But I think we have to hope we can land Harper. The hype and positive PR is just what this franchise needs.
So Strasburg and Boras cave big time at the last minute, or so it seems. That’s what I figured would happen. I don’t care how good you or your agent think you are, when you get offered record-breaking draft money, you just don’t turn it down. Especially when it looks like the next in line to draft you next year will be Washington again, Pittsburgh, or KC. None of those are exactly spend-happy teams, so I wasn’t surprised to see Strasburg sign his deal. I figured the only way he would go unsigned is if he and Boras were going to go all out on trying to somehow make him a free agent for next year instead of having to go through the draft again. I didn’t think that would be possible, and since he signed I doubt they did either.
Kinda stinks though, because I was really hoping that the Pirates would get lucky next year and have either Strasburg or Bryce Harper fall to them. We still have a shot at Bryce, as long as we continue our horrendous play since the deadline. In fact, now that Washington has inked Strasburg to this record breaking contract, they might not be interested in paying Harper next year what he will want. It’ll be funny to hear Boras break out the tired old, “once in a generation talent” in a few months to describe Harper. Psssst Bore-Ass…if it’s 2 years in a row, it’s certainly not once in a generation!
Rangers passed on him, they offered 4 million which is way way way way above slot. Purke turned it down and is pitching at TCU risking a huge injury and losing 2 to 3 mil if he gets hurt what a roll of the dice.
Jake what’s up with the posts not going thru right way
2 posts of mine deleted, Rangers offered Purke 4 million according to my sources. He wanted 6 million plus and Rangers said NO. Purke takes the huge gamble to pitch at TCU look what happened to Gibson getting hurt and costing himself over 2 million.
I really dont see the need to bring up Alvarez now. Too much pressure and too bad of an environment to have him in the bigs. It would be nice to have him work with Hill though.
What has led you to believe Hill and Kerrigan won’t be around next year?
Jose Ascanio looks to be done for the rest of the year. Lat Muscle problem in the shoulder.
Rangers said pass to Purke outrageous demands.
$6M and worth every penny of it.