“We will systematically work to change the culture of this organization and to return it to a consistent winner for the city of Pittsburgh” said Huntington. “To achieve our goal, we will thoroughly evaluate and aggressively seek to acquire elite talent internationally and domestically.” — Neal Huntington, September 25, 2007; emphasis added by Bucco Blog
A week ago I asked Bucco Blog readers to think about what the phrase ‘elite talent’ meant to them, and now you can see why. When Neal Huntington took over as GM of the Pirates he used the term as the heartbeat of his organizational philosophy. To understand where Huntington is headed, we have to first understand what that phrase meant.
So I asked him. Several times I asked him. Each instance he politely declined to answer and I speculated during our correspondence that, perhaps, the reason he was balking was because he might jeopardize his internal valuation process if part of it was published. Also notice that Huntington didn’t quantify whether the talent he would aggressively seek would be prospects or those already playing in the senior circuit.
I assume both herein.
Since my senses told me that Babe Ruth was an elite player, Mickey Mantle was an elite player, and Albert Pujols is an elite player, I felt pretty comfortable that Neal Huntington didn’t mean he would be aggressively seeking to acquire talent already at that level, so I headed down the prospect trail. I could have tried to define the term using statistics as many, many others have done on similar issues, but instead I wanted to know what people around the game thought it meant.
Jim Callis, Executive Editor at Baseball America and a specialist on rating prospects, told me:
When we refer to someone as an elite prospect, we mean they’re a potential superstar. The Pirates have one of the best in Pedro Alvarez. I haven’t tried to rank the teams in terms of elite talent, but the Pirates are probably ahead of the game. I wouldn’t classify 30 prospects [in the minors] as elite talent, and Alvarez is one of the best.
Imagine that, fewer than 30 out of 4,000 – 5,000 players in the junior circuit are considered elite talent in his book. When you stop to consider approximately 1,500 players are taken in the first year draft each year, that means one elite talent comes around about every three years on average that would fit that bill.
Others I spoke to were a bit more liberal. Darren Heitner, CEO of Dynasty Athlete Representation and the agent of a few Pirates farm system players, answered the question by saying:
Somebody who displays elite talent is a person who is among the absolute best of his trade. In baseball, there are 30 teams, each with 25 active players on their rosters. You have 750 players right there, alone. Add to the mix thousands of more players after gathering up all the names in the various farm systems, and you will find a lot of very talented players in that grouping. But how many of them are elite? Baseball America is widely known for its extensive prospect rankings, but are the names at the top of those rankings necessarily those who have elite talent? I would say no. Instead, they are the players that, based on raw skill determined by a subjective scout, have the most potential if everything goes right in their development. Fact of the matter is that rarely does everything go right.
So back to the question…what is “elite talent?” Elite talent are a select few members of an organization that can immediately and substantially contribute additional wins to their organization. These are not role players. These are the men that you look at in a line-up and say, “Well if he is playing today, it looks like we have this one in the bag.” My company, Dynasty Athlete Representation, represents Ryan Kelly and Kyle McPherson in the Pirates’ organization. Kelly is a great reliever who needs some more developing before he is ready to be an elite talent. Kyle just finished up Fall Instructs, and I believe that based on his performance and how he fared last year, is an elite talent, ready to contribute some really important wins.
The ability to immediately and substantially contribute additional wins versus a potential superstar. That’s quite a contrast in opinions on first view but aren’t they both saying elite talent must contribute wins substantially to their organization? Sure they are. On the surface where they appear to differ is on how many projected future wins it takes to qualify since Kyle McPhearson, whom Heitner believes is an elite talent, isn’t even rated in the same stratosphere that Pedro Alvarez is whom Jim Callis calls an elite talent.
So, who is right? Both views represent different sides of the game – one is from an agent whose job, like Huntington’s, depends on accurately projecting future talent, and the other is from – shall I dare say this – an elite prospect ranking service whose survival as a publication is partially ground in accurate projections as well. The key for me as a fan is, which is closer to Huntington’s view?
The best way to test that was to ask folks with other clubs. The first person who came to mind was the infamous Bill James who is with the Red Sox. Bill said:
A player who has a substantial chance to be one of the ten best players in baseball at his position.
A substantial chance to become one of the top 12% in the game (assuming ten players at nine positions or 90 total players out of 750 men on 25-man rosters) seems to me to be about as restrictive as Jim Callis suggested.
MLB veteran Jonathan Mayo added his definition:
As it pertains to Minor Leaguers or prospects (typically my domain), I’d say ‘elite talent’ refers to any player with the potential to become a Major League star in the future. Not just a big leaguer, but a well above-average one. That being said, just having ‘elite talent’ does not guarantee a player will maximize that talent. To me, it’s a term that belongs with ‘potential.’ There have been plenty of elite talents who haven’t made it to the big leagues, let alone reached star level. But those who combine hard work and the ability to grasp the nuances of the game with that ‘elite talent’ are the ones who end up with plaques in Cooperstown or at least several trips to the All-Star Game.
Mayo seems to follow the Callis’ superstar definition route and emphasizes many of the same concerns about projectability that Heitner did.
Another statistical guru with an NL club who wished to remain anonymous suggested players at or above +4 WAR would be elite players in his book which also fits the James and Callis definition since only 67 players (9% of the same 750 players we used with James) qualified at that level in the senior circuit in 2009. That also echoed what Tom Tango said who consults for an American League club.
I could go on and on with more definitions from scouts (who mostly fell in the James/Callis group), media people (tending to be more liberal), agents (again tended to be more liberal), or front office types (bean counters and old school men both were inline with James/Callis), but since this is a shortened down version of a future series I’m putting together on our minor league talent, I’ll stop here since there appeared to be some consensus from inside the game.
While we can’t accurately nail down Neal Huntington’s definition of the phrase ‘elite talent’, I believe we are pretty close if we use Bill James version which was simply: a player who has a substantial chance to be one of the ten best players in baseball at his position. The reason I say that is because, while no two people answered the same, those closest to the game were all in the same ballpark.
Now that you have a feel for what elite talent is, going forward you can start to put together your own judgement on the success or failure of the new regime in carrying out their above stated goal.
And before you ask me let me answer the one question I’m sure to be asked and one I’ve already asked a host of others about including Jim Callis: was Sano projected to be elite talent? The answer I received most often was no, although the Twins and Rene Gayo, the Pirates’ Latin American scouting director, might not agree with the answer.
Many thanks to everyone who participated.
Related posts:
Jake,
Has Huntington used the “elite talent” moniker after his initial usage? From that quote, I just read it as him trying to acquire the best talent available. I don’t think anyone, Huntington included, would assume me meant he was going to acquire numerous superstar caliber players. I’m just trying to find a different way for him to word that statement other than “elite talent” and can’t come up with anything. Maybe it was just a heat of the moment thing…but I’m not sure if he’s continued to harp on this “elite talent” thing.
Great work talking with the other folks about it though, it was interesting to hear the different points of view.
yeah, used it numerous times that I found and once very recently which I’ll be going into in the next part of the series. The term generally applies more often to prospects than current players.
This is the best blog, by far, about my beloved Pirates. Keep up the good work/analyses!
Jake, when I first heard NH say this quote a few years back not once did the thought of aquiring MLB Elite talent players entered my mind. There was absolutely no reason to think that he would. Obviously Nutting wouldnt spend the cash to do that. Then came the Bay trade, in my mind Bay isnt elite, but he is a solid player and when NH traded him that was the first sign that we werent going to go after elite mlb talent. If NH was interested in aquiring the best of the best the MLB has to offer than he would have to spend the money. In Neal’s defense, Bob probably keeps him on a short leeche. In all honesty, do you really believe the Pirates will sign an impact player in the FA. If I remember correctlyour FO said we will spend the money when we need to, not just spend money because we have it. Well last I checked, both middle infielders wouldnt start on any other MLB club. Heres an iknteresting thought that I would like to see but sincerley doubt it will happen, make a move to get Jose Reyes, his stock is a an all-time low and he would look great as our lead off. That would prove to me that NH was serious about aquiring his “elite talent”
> when I first heard NH say this quote a few years back not once did the thought of aquiring MLB Elite talent players..
Well, we’re not done yet on this subject so hold your thought because you just might become surprised down the road.
Meaning? I don’t think we have too much more MLB “elite talent” left on the roster to trade away (or any left for that matter) – so are you saying we’ll be SIGNING or TRADING for some MLB elite talent????
I can’t go into it right now because it would ruin the next part but chew on this.. maybe some believe we already have the ‘elite’ talent in the house?
Reyes continous groin tear surgeries worry me i wouldnt trade anything of value for him since he keeps having to get surgeries and mets wont deal him unless they get a plus prospect back in return.
Other than Alvarez and Mccutchen we have no elite talent. Weiters and Sano would have made 4. Nutting needs to go yesterday. He makes me very very ill!
man wouldnt a roster with weiters sano alvarez and McCutch look sweet
Jake whats your take on Tony Sanchez….I get the feeling he could turn into a Yadier Molina type player which would be fantastic… could this be true or like another type of good catcher, or is it just wishful thinking?
A bit early to tell yet George. He’s a couple years away and next year will be more critical for him and tell us a lot more about him.
Any names on who might be the new fielding coach?
Few notables- Chris Bootcheck elects for free agency (good luck chris that 9 plus era should attract plenty of teams) Bautista and Hansen were outrighted but still remain in the organization. George H , Pirates should offer Travis Fryman a contract for that spot with a possible managerial opening down the line Fryman is a top notch guy in my eyes to be looking at. Tony Sanchez extremely strong arm behind the plate not many tried stealing on him he had a nice throwing out percentage 30′s to low 40′s(i think that was his numbers in cs, will come back with more accurate numbers he was way over 50% early in his rookie season in the minors.) Yadier Molina might be a good comparision with a touch more speed on the bases and a touch more bit of power.
Here’s my take on “elite” talent. I when you talk about “elite” talent at the ML level, you are talking about superstar caliber players in the mold of Pujols, A-Rod, Ryan Howard (Thanks LittleYield!), Roy Halladay, etc. However, I think that a player capable of hitting .290+ with 20-25HR year in, year out, would be considered an “elite” hitting prospect. Defining an “elite” pitching prospect is more difficult, with all the various contributing factors that go into a pitchers level of success. I think in order to be considered an “elite” pitching prospect, you’ve gotta have some serious heat (96+mph) and prove the ability to harness that power with great control.
Using these definitions, the only player currently in the Pirates system that have “elite” written over them is Pedro Alvarez. Brad Lincoln could be borderline, but with a history of arm trouble, I’m hesitant to put too much stock in his 09 performance until I see him replicate it with additional success next year. Outside of those two, the only other one that jumps out is Alderson, but at this point he’s just not there yet. Jury’s out on Huntington’s “high potential” 2008-2009 draft picks like Von Rosenberg and Robbie Grossman. They need more time to prove themselves before they can even be mentioned in the same sentence with the word “elite”.
The current team has one “elite” talent in Andrew McCutchen, and I think most would agree with that. To be honest, I don’t think anyone else on our current roster would even crack the top 15 at their own position, and that’s probably being generous. Doumit could with his bat, but his defense is just not up to par for his position, so his value takes a serious hit there. Put him at 1st or in RF, and he’s just not gonna crack the top 10.
It does kill me when I look back and think that we legitimately could have Matt Wieters and Miguel Sano in our system. Then you figure if we drafted Wieters, we wouldn’t have drafted Sanchez opening up our ability to take an “elite” arm in the 2009 draft instead of Sanchez. Perhaps a guy like Aaron Crow? When you consider those things, it’s a very tough pill to swallow to see where we are at right now. With the fast track that Alvarez/Wieters/Crow are on, and the projected fast track for Sano, we could have been looking at a monster lineup no later than 2012. And I’m not talking a .500 lineup, I’m talking about a championship caliber club with the right peripheral moves to strengthen the club in other areas. I still see a decent number of good prospects in our system, but we are lacking that true “elite” talent that you’re speaking of Jake.
I think Huntington’s swing and miss on Sano was a hard blow. I like Sanchez and think he’s a decent prospect, but I still don’t think he was worth a #4 overall pick. Times like these make you wish they could trade draft picks, because they probably could have traded down into the 10-15 range and still got him. Regardless of whether they want to admit it or not, the money for Sano was coming out of the draft budget and that’s why they went with Sanchez. They figured that Sano was a top 5 talent, and they could use the #4 overall money on him and then add another decent 1st round talent in Sanchez. Had they gotten Sano, I think that 2009 would have been THE banner year for the Pirates amassing talent in the minor leagues. Huntington knew this. I honestly believe that had he been given the opportunity, Huntington would have beaten ANY offer that was on the table for Sano. Maybe not if it had gotten into the $5 million range, but seeing what he signed for in Minnesota, there’s no way the Pirates would have let him go had they had a chance to match. I think they would have gone up to $4-$4.5 for him if they really had to. Sadly, we weren’t given the chance to match because of the relationship between Huntington/Gayo and Plummer. I can’t say I blame Huntington or Gayo for what they did, because it’s probably the same route I would have taken…trying to appeal to the kid and his family, but after 2 consecutive years of the same problem (similar problems with Alvarez if you remember), I just hope they’ve learned their lesson. That lesson is: agents are greedy scumbags, but sadly you’ve gotta play the game by their rules or you’re gonna end up out in the cold.
The real scary thing is wondering what would have happened had the Alvarez debacle turned out differently. Had he gone back into the draft, or more unlikely become a free agent like Boras wanted, the Pirates would have had the 3rd pick and the 5th pick in the underwhelming 2009 draft…and likely would not have ANY elite talent in the minors.
Well, now that I’ve written a short novel on the subject, I’ll end it with this:
I think the Pirates *could* make a significant move on the FA market to bring in a top player. The current payroll is a joke and I believe they are going to be under pressure from the commissioners office to increase it. I’m not sure it will be this year since 2010 is basically another throw-away year, but if not this year, they could certainly get something done in 2011. If they can identify a guy who would be a valuable contributor in 2011-2013 and beyond, they should make a serious effort to bring them in because we don’t have the “elite” talent in house that we are going to have to give big bucks to. We have a bunch of great “complimentary”-player type prospects, who should be more than serviceable ML players, so that could allow us to test FA to find another “Elite” type player that could hold down the fort.
Interested to hear what you guys think.
My list of elite guys – Pedro Alvarez , Borderline guys- Jose Tabata, Brad Lincoln,Tim Alderson, Gorkys Hernandez next tier- Rudy Owens, Brett Lorin, Hunter Strickland, Chase D’Arnaud, Bryan Morris, Jeff Locke , Robbie Grossman , Aaron Pribanic- Have to prove something the 2009 draft class top end guys – Black, Cain, etc…… Pirates payroll i dont see much happening for 2010 season maybe a minor piece like a omar infante, maybe a reliever or two we should look at Dusty Hughes he’s lefty who saw some ml time for a Robinzon Diaz. We will still have clear some roster space for the rule 5 eiigibles roster is at 38 currently we need unload another 3 to 5 guys.
Ryan Howard (Thanks LittleYield!)… I cant quite remember but werent we gonna trade Kip Wells for Howard?
Well, their GM wanted to trade us Howard for Kip Wells, but LittleYield insisted on Chase Utley if I remember correctly. Typical LittleYield asking for outrageous returns and then ending up getting basically nothing out of the deal. But hey…at least we have Jesse Chavez!
Yes.