|
||||
|
I was handed four pit passes, four suite tickets, and a parking pass to the Daytona 500 not to mention a host of other event tickets beginning February 6th with the shootout. This is a premium package. First Bucco Blog reader to e-mail me can have them. Edit at 1:48 PM — the tickets went to Charles in Pittsburgh.
I’m proud to say I broke this story a month ago – I just couldn’t list the buyer to protect my source. Dejan expanded on the news by listing the buyers as well as putting the timeframe together, so kudos to him. That being said, I was told no offer was ever presented to Bob Nutting contrary to Dejan’s report.. simply talking about wanting to buy the team will never get it done.. talk is cheap. I will tell you that there is a group of extremely powerful individuals who have made themselves available to any group wanting to buy the Pirates. Lemieux and Burkle’s camp were only recently made aware of this group so they did not have the benefit of their help when they talked with Nutting the first time. Whether or not they are serious enough in this endeavor to bring these folks into their camp remains to be seen.
First of all, Bob is Ogden’s son.. ’nuff said there. And second of all, anybody who believes for one second Bob Nutting gives a rats ass about bringing a championship back to Pittsburgh needs their head examined, imo. I think it’s fair to say the only competitive spirit the Nutting’s have shown the fans since 2003 is in the miser column, not the win column. They have had numerous opportunities to reinvest back into the on-field product starting with keeping Aramis Ramirez and they have shot blanks at every turn. You don’t take people like the Nuttings out by talking to them. Instead, you make them want to run. One way that could get accomplished is by cutting off their cash cow. In that regard, I’m aware that a group wants/wanted to put up billboards all over town this season with a message something to the effect of don’t buy tickets, and another group has their eye on staging protests for the same purpose. I’d bet there are others I don’t even know about. I said this the other day, the fan base is one collective pissed off group but, for now, they don’t have enough leadership to bring the Nuttings to their knees. Someone with a household name needs to take the bull by the horns and until that happens, the Nuttings will continue to sit comfortable. Personally, I don’t think the remaining fans are at the tipping point yet. The players in the system seem to be, but the fans aren’t. If the Bucs lose another 90 games in 2010 with Alvarez, Clement, and Doumit around, that might put the fans over the top. I’m betting Coonelly knows that too so don’t be surprised if you see a series of mid-season moves that might seem a bit shocking if the club is heading towards 90 losses. Their goal will be to try, one last time, to build a hope fire under the fans, as well as to keep the union off their back. At some point the fans will finally wake up. They always do. I just hope to see it before the Nutting’s slither away. I’ll be back Monday night. Since my family and I are about 75%, I’m going to wait until Monday to shift my energy to breaking down who I believe the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates are, where I expect they will be by the end of the year, and how I believe they will stand up to the rest of the division. In the meantime, here’s some defensive runs saved data for the last four years to enjoy (note: ten runs saved theoretically equals one win). I grouped 2006 – 2008 together because Huntington was hired so late in 2007 that he started the 2008 year off with mostly Littlefield’s roster, albeit trades made in 2008 influenced the regression to some degree. Still, there is little doubt where Huntington picked up his gains in 2009. Simply replacing Bay brought him back to near league average in left and adding a little speed in Morgan and Milledge added a few more runs to boot. And even though McCutchen was a below average defender in center, the fact McLouth wasn’t out there swung center’s defense back to a league average rate. Throw in a little Kerrigan with some flyball arms, and all of a sudden Huntington realized significant gains. Should we expect to see those same kind of numbers in 2010? Sure, both McCutchen and Milledge have a few miles under their feet now so their routes are expected to improve plus Varsho, who aligns the outfielders, and Kerrigan have a year under their belt together. It’s the left side of the infield which is going to take a significant hit. Replacing Wilson with Cedeno was, and still is, a concern. On one hand Wilson was in seventh heaven playing like he was 24 again with all the attention he was getting from traveling scouts and Hill’s presence until he was dealt, and on the other hand you have Cedeno who was brought in and immediately asked to retool his mechanics. The resulting loss in runs saved was significant and remains a problem for 2010. Huntington addressed one hole by grabbing Aki early on because as you can see in the chart above on the right, we were -9 runs at second alone. Then there is LaRoche. Perry Hill proclaimed him a gold glove candidate after the 2009 season and rightfully so. In 2008 LaRoche bled runs but swung a win and one-half the other direction under Hill’s guidance. Unfortunately for Huntington, LaRoche is nothing but a placeholder at third for Alvarez who is likely to come up looking like a 2007 Jose Bautista clone (-30 runs type of production). Put Cedeno and Alvarez together and, well, let’s just say it’s not expected to be a pretty sight. On the rest of the diamond I think we’ll be near league average or better with the only question mark in Jeff Clement. Both Pearce and Jones are good glovemen at first and Clement is still in the learning stage, so I expect a drop in runs saved.. say ten runs; twenty would kill us and that’s very possible if Cedeno doesn’t hit Clement’s mitt consistently which I don’t expect to happen. Overall can we expect to keep up the +46 run difference like we saw in 2009 as compared to 2006 – 2008? Not a prayer in hell – but I don’t think that’s Huntington’s goal either, although he’ll certainly take it if it happens. I’d guess with all the young studs headed to Pittsburgh this year, Huntington would be tickled pink to be +1 run at the end of the year. Problem is, that’s a -3 defensive win swing from 2009.. so where can he make that up? Offense? Pitching? Anywhere? We’ll see next week. Ninety-hours of hell ended last night with my son waking up at 3 AM sweating profusely – he finally broke the fever. Considering I had nearly every childhood disease, sickness, and flu known to mankind growing up outside Chicago, I thought I had seen it all.. until this. The dang fever wouldn’t subside.. he would ratchet up to 103.6 – 104.0 and I’d give him Motrin which would knock it down only a couple of degrees; three hours later it started climbing over 103 again so I’d give him some Tylenol; two hours later it was back up over 102 so six hours after the first Motrin dose, he’d get another; and it went like this for days. When the 72 hour window passed his pediatrician told me to have faith since he didn’t show any other symptom but I have to tell you, I started intermixing a lot more prayers at that point. I printed out the e-cards some of you sent.. they really helped to brighten his days, thank you. One thing about the Pirate Nation that can never be questioned is our unity.
For instance, why would Nutting give his state of the union message at a ski resort instead of at corporate offices on Federal Street? Is snow more important than Roberto Clemente now? He was mocking the fans, no different from when he mocked the yellow t-shirt protesters on walkout day when he wore his own yellow t-shirt to the park. Bob Nutting – the jokester. Ha. Ha.
What a pathetic collective message sent to the fans by the media and the owner, neither of whom cared enough to put their best foot forward. We deserve so much more than this brothers and sisters. So much more. Speaking of nauseating dirty socks, Rob Neyer had the audacity to proclaim the new regime safe from accountability through 2011 as long as they win 70 games before then. What a bozo – we won 67 games with Tike Redman batting third for gosh sakes.. we better win one hell of a lot more with Cutch and Alvarez around. Neyer’s writing style has become so feminine lately. After choking down the Bob/Dejan/Robbie hour, I moved on to Rocco who was broadcasting live from — you got it — Seven Springs. His broadcast was so borrrrrrriiiiinnngggg, I had to shut it off and walk away three times. Gag me with a spoon (for all you old fart Valley critters out there). I like Rocco but listening to this two-hour broadcast required me to drink. A lot. Continuing the media reviews of the caravan allowed me wonder why the focus on middle school children.. day, after day, after day. I figured it out – you know damn well what we’re going to hear when the caravan is over — “we had a record turnout” — well, eight forced school assemblies will certainly help accomplish that, huh? Goodness. The final media word of the week came in a report issued not too long ago telling me that the Pirates are building a copper statute of Maz who will be placed at PNC facing Heinz Field. How fitting for a Nutting project.. cheap tin with the man’s back to PNC and looking across at Steelers HQ. I hope they place a tear in his eye too. – McCutchen bulked up this winter. Great, just what I needed to hear as a fan.. another player heading into his sophomore year adding mass the winter before thinking it will help him to last out the next season only to find out in July he’s weaker than he was last September and ends up on the DL. Let’s hope this year the tune plays differently. Any bets on how many more of these stories we hear this spring? We could be witnessing the start of another 2005 type meltdown. – One source tells me that a club went after Doumit heavy this winter but every deal offered was turned down as inadequate including a package that included a potential top of the order young pitcher currently in A-ball. Ouch. Ouch. Ouch. – John Russell said that if the stars align, his 2010 group could ‘surprise’ .. who, or what, he didn’t say. But isn’t it interesting that even Russell thinks it will take the stars to align in order for this roster to do anything that would surprise anybody? – I keep getting e-mails about Pedro getting moved to first base if LaRoche busts out. Forget it. Pedro comes up at third. End. Of. Story. The when could be delayed by a strong start by LaRoche, but I believe Huntington already has a trade in the wings for LaRoche sometime around June. And Doumit early July. And Maholm later in July. Then Duke at the deadline. All saving Nutting a shitload of cash while mocking the union. – If these guys were dressed in black and gold, the message would be spot-on: Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy My son has some kind of bug again so I’m taking the weekend off and will be back Monday afternoon. Day three of the beast and we finally got his fever under control. But, mom and dad have now picked up the bug so it look like it will be Thursday before I’ll be back. Peace, Since Neal Huntington seems to favor power arms, and since our pitching staff now seems complete, let’s take a look at how each of our pitchers did in 2009 with their fastballs. The only players missing below are Lopez, Veal, and Jakubauskas. First some trivia. Including our new additions, which roster pitcher had the highest swing and miss rate on fastballs in 2009? Including our new additions, which roster pitcher induced the highest groundball rate? The answers to those questions are in the 2009 fastball production table below:
Glossary – the chart has four groups, potential starters at the top, then projected relievers although Ascanio is a maybe, then players in the system, and lastly some of the players no longer with the club. These types of unique stats, and hundreds more including things like daily updated hit charts, fantasy matchups and notes, and production trends (heading up, staying the same, or moving down), will be available in the New Bucs Insider (NBI) membership area in a couple of weeks. My publication license limits what, and how much, of these stats I can post in the public blog here, but I’ll do my best to try to keep everyone informed. I’ll ink the contract next week and be able to tell you which stat house is involved, but you can be assured they are A++ as they work closely with most of the teams. Where this all gets very exciting is when you compare these types of stats to the Pirates opposition, or against division foes, because you immediately see glaring weaknesses in matchups. So let’s answer the trivia questions first. Including our new additions, which pitcher had the highest swing and miss rate on fastballs in 2009? The answer is Dotel – an incredible 24% which was 10% higher than the major league average. That’s an incredible number when you also realize he threw a very high 81% of all pitches as fastballs, 17% above the ML average. Including our new additions, which pitcher induced the highest groundball rate on fastballs in 2009? That would be Evan Meek. Surprised? I certainly was even though I knew he had a semi-heavy fastball. And look at Meek’s swing and miss rate on fastballs – 20%. Wow. Let’s hope that stat remains constant – or even gets better – in 2010. Have fun with the chart – discuss it in the comments section. Just remember you are only looking at one year. Think the Bucs are going to need solid middle infield D? Oh my. For reference, here’s my scouting report take and concerns about him from yesterday. – Dotel is being paid $3.25M which means it’s a tick better than average signing by Huntington. At $3M I would have been a bit happier, at $4M I would have been a lot more concerned, but in any case it’s nice to see we didn’t significantly overpay to get him to play in Pittsburgh. That’s a good sign. Since he has a 2011 $4.5M club option with $250k buyout, I doubt he’ll be around in 2011 unless this roster surprises everyone including Huntington. So someone tell me why Rizzo didn’t hand Dotel the closing job in Washington, or why Dotel didn’t want to go there if Rizzo did call him? Rizz isn’t stupid and has deeper pockets, so am I the only one wondering what’s up with that? – Poll time: The Pirates had the 5th worst reliever ERA in 2009 despite throwing the 4th fewest number of innings. One reason for the higher ERA was that it was fueled from the 4th highest on base average allowed in the game at .350.
–
Stab, stab, stab. – Something to think about in case you missed it, courtesy of a TonyPenaHOF comment yesterday:
Ouch. Good stuff, thank you TPHOF.
Dejan does an ok job covering the Pirates but, I have to tell you, I really cringe seeing any beat reporter write comments like that — even as a blog entry — because it smacks of no objectivity. I mean, those are the words of the man who is granted a media license by the Pirates allowing him to cover the team from the inside that the fans demand objectivity from all year round. So when I read his words — online or in print — I am expecting that he is covering the news of the Pirates. Not creating news (ie: his “true test” fuzzy logic). Now it’s your turn: at what point do sports writers cross the ethical divide? Or can they? – Duke signed for $4.3M avoiding arbitration. Obviously he’s worth every penny of that as a solid MLB #4 type starter in our rotation. Will we, should we, see Neal Huntington approach Duke with a long-term offer? I think they waited too long for it to matter now. I’m guessing Huntington and Coonelly entered 2009 thinking Duke would regress back to 2007 type numbers and planning to offer him a long-term deal after the season. If so, that backfired on them as Duke’s numbers improved across the board. What would he command? If the Pirates wanted to buy out one arb year and two free agent years, I’m thinking they would value him around 1.75 WAR per year. That would be $22M over three, less the 35% third-year arb discount of $2.5M, and that leaves $19.5M over three distributed something like this: $5.5M in 2011, $6.5M in 2012, and $7.5M in 2012 (at age 30). Would Duke sign that deal? Probably not. He’s going to want in the neighborhood of $25M – or more – over those three years and his agent is probably sitting back reading all the negative revenue sharing news and licking his chops even more. Plus, his agent is reading Pirate Nation media coverage like I posted above from Dejan knowing full good and well that the new regime has to start being held accountable at some point, and they probably believe Duke is that point. Do the Nuttings pony up for one of the organizations draft and developed players, or trade him off to reduce future costs in the name of getting younger? On the flip side, I sit back and realize that Zach Duke’s name isn’t on my roster when we finally compete so it behoves Huntington to deal him for some youth while he still holds some value over contract. Huntington probably believes it’s best to wait out the first part of 2010 and see how things go before dealing him, but I think that’s a mistake.. we should have dealt him this winter at the latest. We’ll see what happens in the next 6 months.. a long-term contract or trade. Or nothing. – Dotel inked. I went back and watched some film on him and walked away concerned that he tends to leave batters in the box too long, tends to be too repetitive in his pitch selection, and tends to throw upstairs too much. For instance, reviewing PITCHf/x material on him shows he’s one of the few pitchers in the game who will almost always throw a fastball when behind in the count. Not 75% of the time, not 85% of the time, I’m talking like almost every single pitch. To his credit, he has enough movement on it that he doesn’t get hit hard which should play fine at PNC, but I wonder if that will be the case in some of the smaller NLCD parks? The same is true of pitching upstairs because we have some pretty solid hitters in this division who crush that pitch. He’s a straight fastball-slider guy who tosses a occaisonal changeup to left hand hitters and curve to righties. The fact he has two more pitches than Capps says it all; throw in movement on his fastball and he’s going to be an exciting difference over Capps. But it all comes down to money.. at $3M I’ll love it, at $4M I’ll still be happy but he better not waver. At $5M I’ll be laughing like hell because this roster doesn’t deserve a $5M closer. That is, unless David Roderick’s internal division theory is correct – internally some believe we have enough pitching to contend despite having a below average offensive machine. Do we? I think we’re about to see when Dotel’s contract amount is revealed. – I want you to know that I placed my “Neil Walker possibly being traded” source into the unreliable drawer today on the advice of someone who intimately knows the source. I’m sorry to have led you astray. As for any other place that has suggested a Walker trade, I’m 100% positive it didn’t come from my source so they either got the idea here, or have their own source. – Doug Davis back with the Brewers, huh? What a strange addition. – Some are wondering if the Pirates are getting serious about Ben Sheets? My answer would be no since we sent an amateur scout to watch him instead of a pro scout. – thcBA, thcERA, and thcOPS are new sabermetric stats that were copyrighted today by Kief Ganja. Interestingly, when you see the ”+” sign behind one of them like “thcERA+” it doesn’t mean park or league adjusted – it means known user. Confused? Then that’s probably a good thing. For those that know exactly where this is going, I assume you were the ones called by ABC News in their recent poll. You see, 81% of those contacted:
Dude, like, at least I’ll be able to laugh watching my 90+ loss team year-after-year-after-year-after-year-after.. An ex-NL scout handed me his projection today for Andrew McCutchen in 2010: .285/.360/.465 .. 35 stolen bases, 110 runs scored, and 20 home runs – all from the #1 hole. I thought it interesting that he thought 2011 would be the earliest Huntington would consider moving him down the order. Wow – so much for the sophomore year jinx, huh? Let me tell you if McCutchen busts out with production like that, some of those optimist comments I’ve seen like “this team might surprise you next year” will be spot-on if our pitching holds together. A couple of more observations from him – – he likes Jones bat speed and ability to adjust and thinks he’ll maintain solid numbers in 2010. He agreed with me that Jones seemed to be vulnerable to getting busted in belt-high and above and said he’ll have to come out of spring training having to handle that pitch or he could flounder. If he does handle it, 30 home runs are not out of the question he said. Amazing. – like me, he likes Clement but doesn’t think he’ll respond with the bat until late season, if at all in 2010. He suggested that if Clement gets 550 AB in 2010, he’ll be an offensive force to recon with in 2011 likely as the Pirates everyday catcher (that surprised me) – “not enough power, not enough defense, to stay at first.” He thinks Huntington will hold off dealing Doumit until July as he’ll be more valuable to a contender then since questions about his wrist injury linger. I’m still hearing Doumit’s name as a potential trade, however; – said Maholm could blossom to a #2 type starter (another shocker) and several teams are high on him. I asked when he thought Huntington would deal him and he responded that he thought Huntington would hold him to the end of his contract unless handed a must-trade opportunity; – unlike me, he likes Ohlendorf as a #3/#4 starter and thinks Kerrigan is the right guy to help him adjust to the league. If he isn’t able to, he thinks May and on could be rough for Ohlendorf; – not high on Morton, not high on Cedeno, likes Hart over McCutchen to start the year in the rotation, questions if Aki is truly healthy, said Duke was a solid MLB #4 starter, and not high on Moss. His “wild guess” is 75 wins. – Brandon Jones, huh? He’s a Braves draft-and-follow failure the scouts were always mixed on. Some thought his defense would be his saving grace, others thought his bat would come around. Now at 26, he’s a marginal prospect with a tick of upside and good makeup put on the wire with an option, so Huntington grabbed him. Obviously he’ll be assigned to 3A because he’s a notoriously slow starter and by the end of the year he’ll put up incredible numbers making Huntington’s 3A club — and Huntington – look good. If Jones ever finds more plate discipline and learns how to run better outfield routes, he might be a candidate for a 4th OF role in 2011, but don’t count on it. – A charge of family abuse was dropped against Tyler Yates who was arrested and later bonded out. A quick review of the statute linked above suggests that Yates’ victim must have had some obvious injury for him to be arrested in the first place, although that’s speculation on my part. Since I don’t know what happened, I won’t guesstimate on Yates’ makeup and why Huntington didn’t know better before dealing for him. Congratulations are in order to the Garden Island newspaper for publishing the facts. Also, kudos are in order to Mary Junck of, get this, Ogden, Iowa, the CEO of Lee Enterprises who owns the Garden Island newspaper, for her belief in the public’s right to know. I can only assume the Pirates and/or Ogden Newspapers attempted to squash any release of the Yates arrest which tended to devalue one of Nutting’s commodities, but I don’t know that for sure. For the record, I never liked the Yates trade. If Todd Redmond was still around, he would most likely be our (raw) 5th starter in 2010. – I had heard Neil Walker was out the door but tonight I’m hearing that there may be more than one club in on him now (personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up in San Diego). We’ll see since it will probably happen in the next 24 – 48 hours if it gets done. – John Perrotto’s new home away from BP?
That came from an article posted today by Hall of Fame writer Murray Chass. Obviously Chass believes, as we found out yesterday Bill Madden believes, that the Pirates are a future target by some owners and the union. Indeed. Unfortunately after digging deep into MLB’s ownership circles Sunday, I came away with the feeling Bob and Ogden Nutting are pretty safe. That’s not to say there isn’t trouble in paradise surrounding the Nutting empire, just that the Pirate Nation isn’t likely to see them cornered by other owners between now and the new CBA talks. If ever. You can probably thank the Nuttings impeccable strategy timing the transition of power from McClatchy for that. Remember how McClatchy went public in 2006 stating he wanted Nutting more involved in the organization but Nutting only took baby steps that year, then took the entire 2007 season to “evaluate” his system before implementing change? That one and one-half year stall/delay seems to have perfectly positioned the Nuttings outside the crosshairs of the owners and union. The Commissioner’s office implemented a yearly recommended minimum payroll threshold several years ago which several teams have failed to meet (the Pirates are one of the clubs that have never met it, I’m told). Not meeting that minimum has drawn the ire of the player’s union especially since quality players have either been forced out of work or had to settle for significant reductions in pay the last couple of years because of the reduced market and demand. On one hand we have the Commissioner with a recommended salary floor the Pirates didn’t meet, on the other we have the union screaming for more demand for their product, and on the side sit a few well-heeled owners who are fit to be tied that a few owners seem to be taking their ‘charity’ for a Sunday ride and thereby devaluing the MLB brand and their financial position along the way. Simply put, its greed vs greed vs greed where the ultimate loser will always be fans like you and I who have to bet on the longshot to win. Last thoughts — I think an important part to the “why aren’t the Pirates being told to spend more” equation is to remember that this organization has a debt load of over $100M which grew in 2009. I questioned that figure years ago as fictional accounting because I felt it was primarily funds they would have to reimburse the state for the building of PNC and accrued interest from two loans they took on, neither of which they would have to repay unless the franchise is relocated before 2030. Ironically, the first $20M URA loan made in 1985, and the $11.5M subsequent loan handed to the organization when McClatchy begged the city to renegotiate the terms of the first note, were both taxpayer subsidies which are being slowly written off by the city for years now. See this post for more coverage on the subject. I assume the Pirates would have to write those off their debt load too but yet they get seemingly replaced by Nutting limited partner and McClatchy buyout stock purchases made the last few years along with a few other capital expenditures. In other words, if the owners want to play hardball and come after the Nuttings for perceived creative accounting, then all they are doing is opening a can of worms because every club is probably doing the same thing. That will never happen. The books say the Pirates have $100M+ in debt and every owner will tell you that they want one of their own to have the ability to pay down that debt with the spread the wealth formula they have in place. So put any “Nutting gets hammered by the union” fantasies aside because they are unrealistic at this point. If you want to blame someone for that, you can blame the Nuttings for refusing to infuse deep pocket partners or refusing to sell because neither has happened despite valid attempts. Will the new CBA negotiations offer Pirates fans any hope? I’m certainly not counting on any. –
That quote is from Phil Rogers’ Sunday column in the Chicago Tribune. It was a brilliant risk in my book, one we should have taken, especially considering the deferred money payout. Unfortunately, another smaller market organization in the same division did. – We ended Brian Bixler’s misery today by tossing him over to Neal Huntington’s ex-boss so we could clear roster space. That’s not the trade I heard about so you might see another deal here shortly outside the rumor below. One thing I need to tell you is that Neal Huntington has taken extreme measures to quiet circuit gossip about his moves. And I do mean extreme. Bluntly put, he has made it well-known he won’t tolerate leaks anymore and he’s gone to great lengths to surround himself with old school men who don’t talk about their organization to even their best friends. Period, end of story. However, he still has some holes in his armour plus he can’t control what happens after he talks to other clubs, so things leak out. But the waterfall of rumors all media around this club enjoyed the last five-plus years is quickly drying up, so when a rumor comes our way we’ll have to be a bit more careful not to expose our source. Now for a juicy rumor.. is Doumit close to being dealt? I ‘tink so and I also ‘tink we’re close to signing another catcher. Now let’s see if it gets done. |
|
|||
|
45 queries. 0.491 seconds. |
||||
