By Jake, on February 28, 2010, at 11:50 pm |
We’ve reached the halfway point! Seven days left in the Pledge Drive to keep the paywall down.. you can read about it here and here. So far $517 has been pledged toward our $1,000 goal. Pledges can be made here.
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Oh my, what a heartbreaking loss by the American hockey team. Stunning. Let’s take a look at a few question marks we have entering ST play from a different perspective.
First our coaches.
Let’s not forget that Tony Beasley, for the second time in two years, was denied an opportunity for advancement. Instead, ex-Indians minor league instructor Carlos Garcia was promoted in to be the infield coach. It is one thing for the denial to be based on Huntington bringing in guru Perry Hill, but it is a completely different thing for a relative newcomer in Garcia to walk in over Beasley who has paid his dues having been with in the organization as an instructor for more than 10 years. That was a shocker and Beasley can’t be a happy camper.
Then there is John Russell. I can’t find one person around the game who expects the Pirates to be remotely competitive this year because of the developmental transition stage we are in and many believe Russell will be the one to fall because of it. How will he handle the pressure and, more importantly to me if he is released in-season as the scapegoat, how will the players handle it?
Joe Kerrigan was rumored to announce he would not be back in 2010 despite the Pirates holding an option on him but later recanted and agreed to return while also stating this would be his last year. If so, obviously there was something Kerrigan didn’t like to take that position.
That’s three of our field staff with potential question marks hanging over them. I’m not suggesting the motivation of any of these men will be less than expected, but should we expect these men to be perfect soldiers all things considered? Plus the players hear rumors too.. they know what’s going on. While it may not be proper for them to question the credibility of the front office, these issues have to weigh on them with questions like.. who will be managing next year? .. will there be a new GM? .. and so on.
It’s no wonder the Pirates hired a mental conditioning professional.
Next, roster makeup.
The players know better than anyone where our roster stacks up in the game and while every one of them are competitive human beings, it’s not easy to grind out 162 games knowing full good and well every other club in the game has more talent on paper than you do. Still the games have to be played and Lady Luck is known to throw some bizarre curves so, who knows, anything is possible. But they are only human and walking into each contest feeling like the underdog takes a toll too resulting in more errors, blunders, inattention, bases being overrun, more chances taken in routes, and a slew of other miscues.
And even though Bob Nutting, Frank Coonelly, and Neal Huntington have all said this winter that the remaining players make up the core foundation, the players know full good and well that the game is a business first and they are likely to see more veterans shoved out the door mid-year in the name of rebuilding. After all, that’s all they know.. that’s all they have seen.. they expect it even though ownership and management said otherwise because they have been told that before too.
Just the expectation of the dumping - whether or not it actually happens – places a dark cloud over the players. It’s easy to say go play your best and don’t worry about things you can’t control, but when you are paid based on your production and your performance takes a monster hit because veterans around you are dumped, you can’t help wanting to strike out at the ones who hurt your livelihood. That’s human nature too.
And I haven’t even touched base on our prospects who are seeing new development staff every single year and, now with the GM not being renewed yet, start the season off wondering if Kyle Stark and his development team are even going to be around next year, much less next month.
Overall
That’s a crap load of issues. Sure, every team faces issues each year but few to none face the type of questions and insecurity our players are facing this year. The only parties who probably feel comfortable starting this season off are the owners, but there was also problems amongst them because the Nuttings withheld dividend checks to cover taxes this year Dejan said.
From the GM not being renewed yet, to scouts and development personnel being on the seats of their pants in case another GM is brought in, to player concerns, to an ownership rift, to fan discontent.. the state this organization is in is so unstable, so disjointed, how can they not be losers?
Think hard about it.
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I said this the other day and I’m going to say it again tonight and then not bring it back up until it happens – there is a lot of chatter about impending change. I haven’t a clue what the change is but something major is going on. I’m guessing it has something to do with ownership like the Nuttings buying more shares, but it may not be. I just don’t know what it is – and I’m not too sure anybody else really has a handle on it yet either – but I can say there is some concern floating around.
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Just imagine Ryan Doumit hitting at US Cellular Field. Their fans are based on the e-mails I’m getting.
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Since we had fun talking about Ohlendorf yesterday, here’s a tidbit that was thrown out at me from an anonymous scout this evening: Ross Ohlendorf’s ERA partially benefited from a lower than expected BABiP from an improved changeup. He wouldn’t go so far as to talk about whether he thought the lower BABiP would continue for him or not.
That surprised me because I have that offering as a tick below average pitch. I’ve read research about plus changeups resulting in lower BABiP but I can’t remember Ohlendorf ever throwing a plus changeup all year. Now he has me wondering if I’m grading changes I see properly.
Anyway, food for thought.
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Here’s one that almost got away.. you can work for the Pirates if you have a degree and are willing to accept no benefits. Sounds just like a Nutting job offer, huh?
Exciting careers with the Pittsburgh Pirates!
Inside Sales Representative
This sales position is entry level and focused on selling full season plans, partial season plans, and group tickets to individuals and corporations in the Greater Pittsburgh region.
Some of the responsibilities:
Make minimum 100 outbound sales calls from provided lists to sell full, partial, 10-game and group ticket packages, Call on canceled business and individual season accounts, Develop new sales leads and actively prospect daily, and Meet or exceed weekly and monthly sales goals.
Education required:
Bachelors Degree in Management, Business Administration or equivalent
Please Note:
This position is temporary with no health and welfare benefits or relocation assistance.
Does this sound exciting to you?
By Jake, on February 27, 2010, at 10:36 pm |
Eight days left in the Pledge Drive to keep the paywall down. You can read about it here and here. So far $428 has been pledged toward our $1,000 goal. Pledges can be made here.
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Traveling tonight so short post.
Q: I usually keep my hopes for the Pirates in check. I fully expect them to lose 100 games this year, if not their usual mid-90s. But I will be paying close attention to their minor- league clubs. .. Truthfully, I think its extremely difficult to build an entire team from within.
Bob Smizik: I think you have the right approach, Nate. Low expectations for this season but increasingly higher ones in the years ahead. The Pirates have placed their bets on the amateur draft. It’s not a perfect way to build a team but it seems the only way they can do it. ..
The picture Smizik paints above shows, imo, one of the main problems the fans have in proper evaluation of the current regime. Simply put, he’s content waiting for higher expectations in the years ahead as we build via the draft. No matter where you go to read about the Bucs and ‘the plan’ that’s the message you are hit with.
The problem with that mindset is that there is no accountability for the last two years. For instance, the Nutting family has refused to infuse any of their own cash since 2007 to prop up our draft position during a full rebuild that Bob Nutting said he is the co-architect of.
One way the Nuttings could have done that is by keeping Jason Bay through his contract years which would have resulted in two additional draft picks in 2010 from Bay walking out the door as a free agent. All things being equal, that would have provided us with the 36th and 57th picks in 2010 for an additional $10M or so paid to Bay.
Obviously that $10M infusion would have ultimately been reduced some from Bay’s market value (ie: suite sales, corporate sponsorships, ticket sales, etc, etc, etc) and then wiped out totally from future value received if just one of the two draft prospects contributed as expected – if the second one was a hit as well, then Nutting would have actually banked a considerable profit. That assumes, of course, that Greg Smith and Neal Huntington properly identified, selected, and signed two solid players.
And perhaps that’s exactly the issue – maybe the Nuttings didn’t trust Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington and his staff enough to ultimately bring them that future profit? Instead of risking those personal funds (which we now know would have been at least been covered from the profit they stated the organization made in 2008 and 2009), they instead chose to dump Bay’s salary off the books.
Now going back to Smizik’s assessment and fan perceptions.. are we really committed to rebuilding through the draft if we haven’t leveraged our draft position opportunities considering 12% of the 2009 Type A free agents (three in Gonzalez, Grabow, and Bay), and two of the Type B (Nady and LaRoche), had been under our control when the new regime took over? By my count, that’s a potential for three additional first round picks or no less than three additional second round picks, plus no less than three first round sandwich picks but could be as high as five.
Imagine that a second.. we could have had no less than eight selections before the 82cd pick overall this year and possibly as many as ten of the first 82. Now THAT’s rebuilding through the draft folks. And we could be supplementing that while rebuilding by bringing in ’better bets’ over the next few years in signing free agents with high Elias ranks and giving them stupid money one-year deals. We couldn’t lose because the value of free agent compensation far exceeds any stupid money paid out unless it’s $10M over true value received.
We’re not rebuilding by the draft – all we’re doing is spending as little as possible to get by.
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Iwamura is evidently not 100% yet. Not that we believe he ever will be during his stay with us, but that’s a story for another day.
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Hilariously posted at Pirateball.com as if mocking Pirates ownership.
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Joe Blanton will pitch against the Bucs in Bradenton when the Phillies come in March 6th. They aren’t wasting any time, although it will be interesting to see how many pitches Blanton actually throws. How ironic is it that Coonelly’s old buds send a right-handed soft tosser over to get lit up. Make sure you place your bets on that game.
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“I feel like the most complete player I’ve ever been. I feel like I can be a threat on both sides of the ball. I’m excited to see what I can do.” — Lastings Milledge as said to MLB.com
I, I, I, I, I, I.. well, at least the I’s have it.
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Nyjer Morgan, the good corporate guy – he learned fast in Pittsburgh. Now he’ saying in Washington that there’s a “vibe” in the clubhouse that he didn’t feel in 2009. You know, like we’re hearing about the Bucs in 2010, and we heard in 2009, and 2008, and 2007, and 2006, and..
You get the idea.
Now I wonder if that vibe he’s feeling is a good vibe, or a bad one because they only have three starters?
Ouch.
By Jake, on February 26, 2010, at 10:02 pm |
Nine days left in the Pledge Drive. You can read about it here and here. So far $428 has been pledged toward our $1,000 goal. Pledges can be made here.
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One of the more basic stats in the game is average run production per at bat. In the National League, I only look at position player productivity believing that additional run production by pitching is just gravy on top. Last year the Pirates position players racked up an average of 0.1227 runs over their 5,118 at bats generating 628 runs scored.
Since everyone seems to love Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections, I decided to use them for my baseline projection here and they are predicting a 7% increase over 2009 to 0.1320 runs. If we assume 5,150 at bats, that would be 679 runs scored resulting in the second worst projected offensive output in the National League and, obviously with the AL DH rule, the second worst in the game. Other projection systems like Marcel and ZIPS also project a low scoring Bucs offense.
Personally, I think the 0.1320 PECOTA projection is too high and have the Pirates regressing 2% from 2009 productivity to a 0.12025 which, over 5,150 at bats, would generate only 619 runs scored. But understand, my projection isn’t as tight as PECOTA because I included projected trades as well like Doumit and Aki.
Regardless which system you like, or what your personal projection might suggest, the goal of the Pirates front office this year needs to be production in the 0.1400 range generating 721 runs scored (assuming 5,150 position player at bats) in order to be competitive in the division. The reason for that is this – there isn’t much punch in the division this year and our pitching staff is going to leak runs allowed like a sieve. PECOTA projects them at 800 runs allowed (5th highest in MLB) and I have them even higher (4th highest at 825).
Now the million dollar question is, how can the front office generate more run production? The simplest route lies in the batting order.
Iwamura is in a contract year coming off an injury, he has league average speed (which means not much), he has the best eye and contact rate of all our players, and thrives in the leadoff spot. He’s not a natural #1 hitter for the NL, but he’ll be about as solid as you’ll see.
Behind him I’d like to see a good bat handler who puts the ball in play. I think Lastings Milledge would be a good choice here because he typically chokes in high leverage situations like whiffing at the worst time, he doesn’t have that great of an eye, he has some speed to get down the line, and while he isn’t exactly the best bat handler on the roster, he stings the ball enough to force the opposition to play on the balls of their feet. No, he won’t be a trusted hit-and-run batter, and yes, he’ll still whiff a lot, but I think with McCutchen behind him he’ll see more pitches to square up on.
The third hole has to be McCutchen. The toss-up is do you want him on the base paths when other batters without high contact rates coming to the plate, or do you want him driving runners home? That’s a no-brainer.
I’d put Jones in the four-hole and follow him with Doumit and then let Clement sting the ball next followed by LaRoche and then Cedeno. So it would look like this:
Aki, Milledge, McCutchen, Jones, Doumit, Clement, LaRoche, and Cedeno.
When Alvarez comes up, and assuming LaRoche is traded, he could hit in Clement’s spot while he gets his feet wet, and a decision could be made about whether to swap Clement and Milledge who would bat behind Alvarez.
My model runs project a modest increase in runs scored using this lineup card a majority of the season. And, surprising to me, more production than a McCutchen, Aki, Milledge, Doumit type of card. Oddly, the best lineup for run production had a lineup of Aki, McCutchen, Church, Moss, Doumit, Clement, LaRoche, and Cedeno (not Crosby). That would be a very poor defensive lineup card except in some of the smaller parks, but there you go – lefties must rule this year. Surprisingly for his age, my models runs just don’t like Milledge this year.
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I’m starting to get a few tidbits out of camp and I’m hearing there are a few more minor injuries than we’ve already heard about. I’m not going to discuss them in the hopes they just go away but one in particular is a major concern to me. We’ll see over the next few days what is reported.
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The Red Sox bench players are being paid just $1M less than our projected 25-man roster, a Comcast report states.
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The Bradenton Herald covered the Pirates pep rally held in Bradenton with a nice article and some good pictures.
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Fan note of the day: Bob Smizik writes absolutely nothing and gets like 100 kiddie comments, Mondesi’s House puts up their Friday at the Polls and gets 5 comments, and recently Deadspin wrote about the depressing Pirates story of the day and generated 9 comments.
If that doesn’t tell you all you need to know about the current state of the Pirate Nation, nothing ever could.
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HUH????
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Anybody else notice that all of a sudden blogs and discussion forums are becoming littered with posts suggesting why the Pirates should take a position player and not a pitcher in the first round? The exact same thing happened last year during spring training then died off and came back again about a month before the draft.
Interesting.
By Jake, on February 25, 2010, at 9:48 pm |
Ten days left in the Pledge Drive. You can read about it here and here. So far $380 has been pledged toward our $1,000 goal. Pledges can be made here.
I won’t lie to you – I’m a bit surprised that so few have an interest in expanded coverage of our minor league system and being able to view in-season professional scouting reports on our “core foundation” players in Pittsburgh.
Perhaps I crossed the ‘writer reality line’ as I got a little closer to the inside? With one foot in the game and one foot out, the step that is in thirsts for expansive knowledge about everything going on, and the foot that is out tries to figure out how to cross the line to also get in. I have to admit it is one hellaciously fun ride playing with all the new toys I have found inside, but it also causes problems as I become more dialed-in.
Without question, the fan landscape in Pittsburgh has changed dramatically over just the last three years. I realize part of that is due to our continuous losing cycle as many fans want to align with a winner, but its more than that.. the dying newspaper business has also changed fan habits.
Gone are the days with an entire page would be dedicated to one game showing hitting charts, pitching locations, and other in-game stats in full color no less. Today you are lucky to get just a concise recap in the newspapers and then have to listen to fluff radio coverage listening to people who may or may not have even watched the game. Then you turn to the blogs to try to fill your plate but they have become robotic duplication machines with everyone covering the same topic each day.
Thus my desire to step up and bring you more here to melt between your mouth.
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Chuck Finder reported today that Hanrahan was evaluated by Doc Andrews and given a green light to resume throwing. Good stuff. Just consider the warning I gave you earlier this week – don’t count on him regardless of what he was told. Unless he’s superhuman, over the next few months every time he takes the mound he’s going to be thinking that the next pitch he throws might end his career, and that takes a toll on a guy.
The more interesting part to all this to me is how John Russell choses to handle Hanrahan. Once the season opens will he bring him in during high leverage situations from day one, or will he ease him back into his role understanding the mental challenge Hanrahan will be facing? And, if Russell does throw him into the fire real fast, how will Hanrahan handle it? Fewer sliders? Less fastball velocity?
What Russell does from day one will be a clear indication to me what Huntington’s plans are for him down the road. If they immediately throw him to the wolves (which is what I expect to see) then I think its safe to say they don’t see Hanrahan as having much short-term value. If they decide to either give him a little DL time, or they decide to ease him in using him in lower leverage situations (down by 10 and need someone to throw an inning), then I’ll believe Huntington feels there is short-term value he wants to protect.
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As first reported here in the comments by TonyPenaforHOF, top prospect Tony Ranaudo will miss his next start due to elbow discomfort.
I guess this is as good a time as any to tell you that I’m hearing that we’re paying a lot of attention to Chris Sale, a southpaw down at Florida Gulf Coast. A lot of attention. Obviously this young man will have to continue to take steps forward to get serious consideration a 1/2, but you can officially add him to our watch list.
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In 2006 I mentioned to Bucco Blog readers that I felt impending change was on the horizon because of chatter and activity occurring behind the scenes I was in the middle of. Today you know that activity included a pro scout hammering me most likely because he feared he would be out of work in the near future. Later we learned Nutting took over and a new President and GM were eventually hired.
Once again the chatter is picking up steam. For that reason, as a fan I’m going to call on Frank Coonelly to crap or get off the pot – either give Neal Huntington an extension right now or fire him right now. I’m not in favor of dragging this out over the season because we have too much to lose.
I understand that if replacing Huntington is under consideration that the timing for such a move isn’t good right now but we have some strong people upstairs who can take over until a new GM is hired. If instead he’s going to extend him, then make it be known that negotiations are in place so others feel more comfortable in the organization. I think everyone expects Huntington to be extended but I’d guess the parties aren’t agreeing on the number of guaranteed years.
Stabilize the organization Frank.
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For all you uniform gurus, here are some drawings of the Marauders uniforms which were unveiled today. White will be the home jerseys, gray for the road, and the black will be batting practice jerseys. Thanks to the Marauders for the information.
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Speaking of Bradenton, I wonder how long it will be before Trevor Goodby runs for the Florida Senate?
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Did anyone else notice how the Pirates got early spring training play from the MLB Network while the young kids from our farm system were likely to be getting the majority of at bats, but when the men of the game take over from mid-March to April 4th, the Pirates are nowhere to be seen in their schedule?
March 03, 12:00 p.m., Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees
March 10, 6:00 p.m., Baltimore Orioles @ Pittsburgh Pirates
March 13, 6:00 p.m., Pittsburgh Pirates @ Boston Red Sox
March 14, 8:00 p.m., New York Yankees @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Don’t forget daylight savings changes 3/14. The press release states that the games will be blacked out in each of the team’s home market (why, I have no clue other than to force you to go to ST).
By Jake, on February 24, 2010, at 7:57 pm |
Our ”anti-paywall” pledge drive is in the fourth day and we’ve received $380 towards our $1,000 goal. If we reach the goal, then I’ll be able to bring you cutting-edge statistics, charts, fantasy reports, handicapping tips on Pirates games, scouting reports on our minor leaguers from pro scouts, and much, much more, free here at New Bucs. If I can’t raise the $1,000, then I’ll have to put this material behind a paywall on another site and collect membership fees to help offset my costs.
Quite a few people have asked “why should I donate if those who don’t get the same perks as I?” I initially said you had to donate $100 or more to have access to private chats with the pro scouts I’m bringing in like Anup Sinha but I’m going to drop that to anyone who donates at least $50. Those who donate at least $100 will also receive my personal handicapping picks during the year and my private phone number.
If we don’t collect $1,000 in pledges, then those who donate $25 will receive one-year membership behind the paywall (a $49.95 value), those who donate $50 will receive a two-year membership, and those who donate more that $75 will also have access to private chats with the pro scouts (all members will have access to chats but $75 and up donors will have private time).
Lastly, I’ve been asked to show some of the types of reports you’ll have access to during the season. If you click one of the images below a larger image should pop up. These are just some of the major league performance and matchup reports you would have access to that are updated nightly.
You can click the Donate button below which will take you to PayPal’s secure website where you can make your pledge using a credit or debit card or log into your PayPal account and send your pledge to jake [at] newbucs [dot] com.
Sample reports (click an image for it to expand). Realize that the images show condensed versions since they are so big. Firefox users might want to wait 20 seconds or so before clicking one of the links for the lightbox effect to load:
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Two quick mentions about Chuck Finder’s lastest out of Bradenton. First this tidbit:
“I believe that any organization is built on stability. I have a lot of faith in the leadership that is put in place, both on field and in the front office,” Nutting said. “They’re following the plan we put in place.”
Err.. what did Nutting just say? Wow, let’s back up a second and break that down.
“I have a lot of faith in the leadership that is put in place, both on the field and in the front office.”
It’s pretty obvious the leadership he’s talking about includes Neal Huntington and John Russell and not Frank Coonelly if for no other reason than Finder’s article was about extensions for Huntington and Russell. Knowing that, let’s look at his second sentence:
“They’re following the plan we put in place.”
Nothing could be any clearer - Nutting is admitting to the micromanagement of Neal Huntington. Ever since Bob Nutting took control in January 2007 I’ve believed one of the consultants he was using was one of the Duquettes, although I don’t know that for sure. I assume Jim because I spoke to Dan one time and he denied any involvement with Nutting other than friendly passings, but he wouldn’t tell me anything anyway. Sure, all the Duquette’ish moves are probably coincidental but considering Bob Nutting and Kevin McClatchy both admitted that Nutting was pretty much clueless about baseball ops, I have to believe someone is guiding Nutting and one of Duquette’s seems logical because of the branding on the hires, moves, and decisions already made.
As a fan, I respect that ownership and the President have a grand plan bit its concerning to me that ownership just admitted that the GM is merely following their plan. Think about that hard.
Finder also mentioned that Nutting said there is no immediate plan to extend Huntington but I have to believe that Nutting is just being coy about current negotiations. There’s almost no way Huntington doesn’t get extended in my book. As for Russell, I think he’s booted out the door after this club starts to come apart this year. All are just guesses on my part.
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Is anyone keeping track of the number of players who have claimed that imperfect health cost them production in 2009? Here’s just a few I quickly remember off the top of my head:
Duke (fatigue), Maholm (knee and flu), Moss (knee), Doumit (smorgasbord but mainly wrist), Milledge (broken ring finger recovery), Donnelly (calf, shoulder, and prior elbow), D McCutchen (mental conditioning issues), Meek (oblique), Church (back), Clement (knee and oblique) .. that’s one-quarter of our 40-man.
I know there have been more but I don’t recall them right now. Dotel being out with an oblique injury early is a bit of a concern, we also have health concerns with Hanrahan (elbow), Hanson (back and mental issues), Yates (elbow), Ascanio (shoulder), Morris (mental makeup), Vazquez (knee), and Donnelly (coming off TJ), not to mention a host of other minor leaguers.
That’s quite a few health issues adding to our overall risk this year.
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I’m not even going to talk about Coonelly’s ridiculous ‘dynasty’ statement.
By Jake, on February 23, 2010, at 11:51 pm |
As you may know, I’m running a pledge drive in an attempt to bring to you major league quality scouting reports on our minor league players this year as well as contracting with a professional scouting service to provide us with in season daily performance updates on our guys in Pittsburgh. You can read more about the plans here and here.
The goal is to collect $1,000 over two weeks in order to keep the material freely available here and not put it behind a New Bucs paywall, and so far we’re up to $380. Please donate what you can by clicking the donate button below which will take you to a secure PayPal site where you can pledge anonymously if you like, or use your PayPal account and send your pledge to jake [at] newbucs [dot] com.
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“[T]he future is finally bright for the Pirates, even if the sun is just barely peeking out from behind the clouds at this point.” – John Perrotto at the Beaver County Times today.
Last week a scout told me his focus on minor league players isn’t whether they will break out this year or next, or if they should be able to handle a specific league or not, it’s on what their contribution at the major league level will likely be. Obviously that’s the name of the game when you initially draft the player, but what wasn’t as clear to me was why performance during their minor league development years wasn’t just as valuable.
Consider Tony Sanchez. The kid raked last year while proving quite a few people wrong about his defensive skill set by flashing a 70 glove. When I asked the scout if he thought he’d breakout with his bat this year he said he didn’t know and it really didn’t matter to him. In his mind he felt Sanchez was destined to be a backup catcher type of player for numerous reasons, the most obvious being his large frame size which will continue to grow and his likely inability to hit major league pitching at an average clip down the road.
Other scouts I talked too said basically the same thing – the only people raving about him are media types like Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and others who are journalistic oriented, not scouting oriented. But all of the scouts echoed what the first scout said, while the signs still point to a higher probability of Sanchez ending up as a backup receiver, he has a chance to break that perception with a strong showing with his bat, but that will have to happen in Pittsburgh over time. What he does in the minors isn’t relevant.
So I took those thoughts one step further by asking all these scouts what they thought about our minor league depth and I was told what we already know – there is Alvarez and everyone else.. a few solid A- or B+ type guys in the system who have a good chance to shine down the road (they mentioned six) and then a system clogged with B-/C+ types better known as average players.
Perrotto mentioned in his article that as many as 40 players have a chance to make the bigs, but that’s a pretty wild assumption he made. If you compare our system with that of the Cards, then they must have 60 – 80 players who have a chance, and the Rangers must have 200. But the game only offers so many slots for Perrotto’s claim to be realistic — unless, of course, he means a Nutting owed club which never infuses cash, rotates out any player who is two years from free agency, and replaces them with developed players from our system regardless of the loss of production. Then I agree, we probably do have 40 players who could fill in here or there.
My point is this - once a prospect enters our system his future is tagged based on his projectability when selected. Obviously that can change over time, but you need to understand it rarely does. Scouting isn’t an exact science by any means but tools don’t grow on trees - it’s next to impossible for players to add tools to the shed if they don’t exist to begin with. They can improve on what they have but it’s a rare bird who is drafted throwing 89 and then starts throwing 96.. it’s a rare bird who is drafted with a power projection of 40 and then starts hitting 30 home runs five years later.. and it’s a rare bird who is drafted with a 45 command projection who then starts effectively painting the black at will.
Realizing that and then looking at the depth of our system, you have to understand that we have quite a few players who have complimentary problems with good tools. One example is that we have quite a few young live arms who also have command issues and/or lack true secondary pitch depth. When you add to those types of issues the inherent high-risk of any high school pitcher ever making it to the bigs, or already broken down and/or repaired risks in guys like Lincoln and Alderson, or huge makeup risks in guys like Tabata, Morris, and a few others I won’t mention here, or potentially highly overrated players like Tony Sanchez, Chase D’Arnaud, or Rudy Owens, you start to see the red flags we have in the depth everyone is currently raving about.
Going forward consider this – right now our ‘core foundation’ 40-man roster in Pittsburgh is made up of many players whose careers hit brick walls.. Milledge, Clement, Cedeno, LaRoche, Donnelly, Hanrahan, Hart, Morris, Morton, Veal, Tabata, Hernandez, Crosby, D McCutchen, Moss, and Church. For whatever reason, they were other clubs rejects or unhealthy players who have found a second life in Pittsburgh. I’m not suggesting these are bad players, just that it’s obvious most of these guys were lacking something.. tools, makeup, health, development, something. Maybe it all comes back together for some or all of them, maybe it doesn’t. We’ll see.
But realize what we have rebuilt the foundation of our new house with is mostly other teams rejects who once had projection, a ton of risk in young high school arms with none of them projected as having top of the order tools, quite a few health or makeup problem players who had projection at one time, and a bevy of others who are considered average.
Some of these risks are going to excel, some of the average guys are going to prove to be more worthy, and some of the health or makeup issues may allow the player to resume their projection, but no matter how you look at it, it’s a shaky foundation at best. Significantly more shaky than the average, stable organization is dealing with. Adding to the shakiness are guys like Duke, Maholm, and Doumit who aren’t likely to see the start of the 2012 season as a Pirate.. if even the 2011 season.
Stay focused — projections of system-wide depth are only as strong as the strength of the tools in those projections. And most of all, the only performance that ever matters is the performance goes in the statistical books as a member of a club’s 25-man roster.
By Jake, on February 22, 2010, at 10:24 pm |
It should be pretty obvious by now that we’re undergoing a major transformation here. One of the more exciting aspects of that change involves a deeper look at our minor league system. Not from the view of ordinary fans, but from the likes of professional major league scouts who I’m bringing in as correspondents to guide us all in the evaluation of our minor league players and system unlike anywhere on the web.
But it’s more than that. The other day Neal Huntington declared that many of the younger players on the major league roster are the core foundation of our future, so I’m contracting with a major league scouting service (Inside Edge) to provide us with daily updates on their performance and progress during the year as well as to provide us with series matchup information and notes.
It’s a significantly different path I’m taking to provide Pirates’ fans all over the world with an intense scouting look inside our organization. To be blunt, I’m stoked about this one-of-a-kind project. But there is a catch.
This is costing me a small fortune (thousands and thousands) and I’m asking for your help to offset some of the costs. If I can raise $1,000 in pledges from my readership over the next couple of weeks, then I won’t put all this material behind a paywall and charge a subscription fee to offset my costs. Instead, the content will be made available right here free of charge at New Bucs.
So far you have pledged over $300 in the first 24 hours so we’re well on the way, but we still have some ground to cover. You can read about additional perks here for donating at least $50, or $100 or more, you can send your pledge amount to my jake [at] newbucs [dot] com e-mail account via PayPal, or you can click the PayPal link below to use a credit card anonymously.
To give you a little idea of where all this is going, below is Anup Sinha’s bio and an introduction article which is an excerpt from his recently published book for you to enjoy (about Harding Peterson, no less!). Anup will be evaluating and reporting some on the Pirates in spring training camp, the Marauders FSL team during the year, and as we get closer to the amatuer draft he might have a chance to report on a few players who we are said to be tied to in the first few rounds.
Thank you.
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ANUP SINHA BIO
Anup Sinha worked five years as a major league scout, most recently for the St. Louis Cardinals (2005-2008) in both California and Florida. Prior to that, Mr. Sinha wrote for TeamOneBaseball.com for five years. He just recently wrote and published a book entitled CHARACTER IS NOT A STATISTIC. Sinha, 39, was raised in Detroit, and currently resides in Jupiter, Florida.
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Hello Bucco Blog readers. I look forward to writing scouting articles for Jake this spring and summer. At some point in mid-March, I’ll head across the state from Jupiter to Bradenton to check on the Pirates minor leaguers in spring training.
I recently wrote a book CHARACTER IS NOT A STATISTIC. For more information, please visit our website (https://www2.xlibris.com/bookstore/bookdisplay.aspx?bookid=70062). It is also available at Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and other online bookstores.
I’ve pasted over an excerpt that I thought would interest you older Pirates fans. In one of the appendix chapters, I researched and ranked the ten best scouting directors of the draft era (1965-present). It is entirely subjective, of course, and former Pirates SD Harding Peterson ended up ranking 7th. Take a look at the players he brought into the organization! And as most of you know, Peterson enjoyed the fruits of his labor as the GM of the 1979 World Series Champs.
The descriptors are explained in the book, but in a nutshell:
IMPACT MLB refers to players who were All-Star caliber for at least three years and above-average starters for at least three more.
SOLID MLB refers to players who were at least average starters for at least five years. I’ve also included strong backup players who lasted ten or more years.
ASSET MLB is a player who doesn’t quite fit “solid” but made a contribution in the big leagues that went beyond a “filler” or “cup of coffee” player.
Fillers and cups of coffee guys were not included.
I hope you enjoy
This is excerpted from pages 292-293 in Appendix M:
7. Harding Peterson, Pittsburgh Pirates, 1968-1976
IMPACT (8): OF/1B Dave Parker (14th, 1970 June), RHP Kent Tekulve (FA, 1969), LHP John Candelaria (2nd, 1972 June), 2B Willie Randolph (7th, 1972 June), RHP Bruce Kison (14th, 1968 June), LHP Rick Honeycutt (17th, 1976 June), RHP Ed Whitson (6th, 1974 June), LHP Al Holland (FA, 1975)
SOLID (8): RHP Don Robinson (3rd, 1975 June), RHP Doug Bair (2nd, 1971 June), C Milt May (11th, 1968 June), SS Craig Reynolds (1st, 1971 June), OF/1B Mitchell Page (3rd, 1973 June), C Ed Ott (23rd, 1970 June), LHP Rod Scurry (1st, 1974 June), SS Dale Berra (1st, 1975 June)
ASSET (9): RHP Larry Demery (7th, 1972 Jan Sec), RHP Fred Breining (3rd, 1974 Jan), C Steve Nicosia (1st, 1973 June), LHP Bryan Clark (10th, 1974 June), RHP Tom Dettore (3rd, 1974 Jan Sec), RHP John Morlan (1st, 1969 Jan Sec), 2B Mike Edwards (7th, 1974 June), OF Dick Sharon (1st, 1968 June), 1B Ken Macha (6th, 1972 June).
What makes Peterson’s drafts most impressive is that he never had an early pick. The Pittsburgh Pirates were National League powers during this time so by virtue of their record, they tended to pick late. The earliest pick they ever had in the June draft was ninth overall (among twenty teams) in 1968. The following years, they picked 10th, 13th, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 11th, 20th, and 21st. So Peterson would come in at a disadvantage and still manage to out-draft his opponents.
The organization was stocked before he got there, thanks in large part to his predecessor Rex Bowen. Bowen was a contributor to the 1960 Pirates and largely responsible for the backbone of the 1971 club, both of whom won the World Series. Peterson continued the tradition of strong drafting and he’s the most deserving of credit for their excellence throughout the 1970s culminating with the 1979 World Series Championship.
Dave Parker would become their #3 hitter and a terrific all-around player for the 1979 Champs. Tekulve was the closer, while Candelaria and Kison were vital starting pitchers and Don Robinson an outstanding swingman. Ed Ott and Steve Nicosia formed the catching corps while Dale Berra served as a utility infielder before turning into a starting shortstop later in his career.
In addition to those eight, there were nine more Peterson draftees on this list who were traded for other players on the 1979 championship roster. That’s the type of impact his drafts had on the franchise.
Peterson would become the Pirates GM in 1978 and be able to enjoy the fruits of his labor with the World Series title in 1979. Peterson also benefitted greatly from Howie Haak, the Pirates international scout for more than two decades. Haak was truly a pioneer, signing Latin players at a time when most teams had none. Among his prizes were two 1979 starters; centerfielder Omar Moreno and second baseman Rennie Stennett.
With that kind of domestic drafting out of Peterson and international scouting from Haak, it’s no wonder the Bucs were a force in the decade of the 1970s. The franchise has more recently suffered a record 17 consecutive losing seasons between 1993-2009, but there was a time when the Pittsburgh Pirates were the model organization of baseball. During the ten years of the 1970s, the Pirates won the division six times and the World Series twice. Three other years, from 1976-1978, they finished second in the National League East to their powerful in-state rival Philadelphia Phillies.
By Jake, on February 22, 2010, at 5:27 pm |
10 days left in the pledge drive as we attempt to collect $1,000. Click this link to read why: Pledge Drive
Amount pledged as of 2/25/2010 at 8 PM: $380.00.
By Jake, on February 21, 2010, at 8:40 pm |
Five years ago after the Nuttings shut down The Pirate Report, a friend of mine and I attempted to put the magazine back in the hands of the fans. We offered to buy piratereport.com from the Nuttings, were green lighted for the first round of venture capital funding, and assembled an elite staff of professional freelance writers for the publication, including John Perrotto, Joe Rutter, Tracy Ringolsby, and numerous others.
But my personal desire in the project was the smaller vision buried within the big picture – I wanted to cover the minor league players with such intensity that our product would be the envy of the baseball world. So we brought in all the beat writers from the smaller newspapers covering each minor league affiliate, contracted the services of a couple of out of work scouts, and brought onboard a few of the most passionate Pirates fans we knew.
The plan ultimately crumbled because of the Nuttings refusal to sell the domain and subscription list which was critical for our business model, and ultimately our funding.
Fast forward to 2010 and my plans for content behind the paywall at New Bucs Insider. But this time I don’t have venture capital to work with, I won’t be publishing a magazine, my best friend with the mega-bucks and big vision isn’t involved, and I’m not hiring beat writers.
Instead, I’m contracting with Inside Edge, Inc, who provides scouting services to most of the major league teams including the Pirates, to allow me to publish cutting-edge in-season reports on the performances of our youthful roster in Pittsburgh as well as series matchup data that will only be available here, I’m bringing in professional scouts like Anup Sinha as correspondents to monitor and report on our Bradenton, West Virginia, or Altoona prospects during the year, and I’ll be offering commentary not only on the state of the system, but on the games I visit as well.
In other words, no ads, no agendas, and no subterfuge. Just the facts.
My costs to provide this material will be well over $5k this season which I hoped to offset with membership fees. But since so many of you have written asking me to drop the paywall concept and provide the material free here at New Bucs, I decided to try a pledge drive instead.
Here’s my goal.. if you pledge $1,000 or more over the next two weeks, I’ll drop the paywall and post all the Insider content here at New Bucs. As a special incentive, any party that donates $100 or more will have access to private chats with the scouting correspondents I assemble during the year, you’ll receive my personal handicapping picks on each series during the year, and my phone number for any last-minute questions or just to chat about the club.
If I don’t collect $1k in pledges, then those who pledge at least $50 will be given a two-year membership behind the Insider paywall.
Donating is simple and you can remain anonymous. Simply click the link below and you will be taken to the PayPal website where you can use your PayPal account or any credit card of your choice in a secure environment. PayPal will handle the transaction to my company (Baseball Productions) and then bring you back to the home page. I’ll update the amount received in this sticky post each night.
I’ve disabled comments on this post so people don’t inadvertantly put login info or other sensitive data in the thread, so if you have a question use the contact form in the navigation bar above or e-mail me a jake [at] newbucs [dot] com.
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