The Pittsburgh Pirates had the 7th highest number of quality starts in 2010. Remember now, a quality start is defined as a start where no more than three earned runs have been allowed by the starter through at least six complete innings. Backing our starters up was a bullpen which ended the year with the 5th worst ERA and the 3rd worst winning percentage in the game.
But was the bullpen really to blame?
Below I used a very basic stat Bill James invented called Game Score to evaluate starting pitching in the division. All you have to really know about Game Score is that 50 is the mid-point and any number above that is better than average with about 50% of all starts falling in the 40 – 60 range and 20% falling below 30 or above 80 range.
As you can see from the chart on the left side below, the Bucs starters produced the third highest number of 50+ Game Score starts in the NLCD at 81 yet ended up winning only 56.8% of those starts which was 10.9% below the NLCD average. Had the club produced wins at league average levels, we would have theoretically seen 8.8 more wins. That’s a crapload of potential additional wins.
Where did we go wrong?
Now look at the charts on the right side.. as you can see, our failing point was the 3rd inning. When you are behind in 70 games by the third, and you have a below average offensive unit, you’re going to have a very bad year and that’s exactly what happened to our Bucs. It wasn’t the fault of the bullpen, it was the fault of our anemic offense as well as our starters as shown by the reddish/pink highlighting below.. an incredibly high 3.59 ERA in our 50 – 59 Game Score contests.
The bullpen gave up quite a few leads but every bullpen does.. it’s expected as part of the game. The problem is the Pirates didn’t have the offensive weapons to come back like every other team in the division does and that’s one solid reason why they lost so many last year, and why they will lose another boatload this year. Bolster the bullpen all you want, but unless the pen can put up zeros in every single game once the starter leaves, it won’t matter one bit if they have 100 mph fastballs, get more swings and misses, or throw heavy sinkers.. we’re still going to lose a lot more than we win. That’s what history tells us.
Enjoy the chart.
Interesting… I wonder why our starters were said to have a good year when they were losing by the 3rd inning in most games. Looks like the plan to get by on strong pitching and a below average offense is going to go up in flames.
The bullpen sucked. It’s been fixed.
End. Of. Story.
While the Pirates were 7th with 84 QS, the National League average was 82 and 5 of the 6 teams ahead of the Pirates were also in the NL (including the powerhouse Arizona Diamondbacks).
Pirates were 28th in SVO, had 28 saves vs the NL average of 40. Of the top 12 guys (in terms of IP) who pitches for the Pirates last year 5 had an ERA below the NL average of 4.19, 2 of which already are gone. Duke and Ohlendorf were the only starters w/ERAs below league average.
And still haven’t gotten to the topics of batting and defense (a lot of those QS’s were logged with different guy holding a glove).
More. To. Story.
Nice analysis. As I look at the data, it appears our bullpen also failed, because we kept following further behind. By the 9th we were 89, and extra another 9. Games ahead were steady from 3-9. You are right about the third inning, but the BP contributed to not giving the offense a chance either IMHO.
Anyone catch Huntington’s comments on Bryce Harper on the Post’s blog? I understand hype in our 24 hour sports cycle world, but Harper seemss impressive. Is this Huntington setting us up for disappointment for another ’signable’ draft pick at #2? Also, what’s up with Chuck Finder’s anti-Harper cheerleading? He reminds him of Shawn Abner? Who does he work for the Postgazette or the Pirates? Jake, your got any thoughts on Harper, or will you be saving those for closer to the draft?
The Pirates’ massive overhaul is over, as Coonelly stated, “We do not anticipate an exodus of players off the roster at this year’s Trade Deadline.”
-mlbtraderumors.com
BS Meter– Truth Kinda BS or Total BS
Either way its the stance u should always have. That way when someone calls u havent already shopped the block with the guy and devalued ur product. If Doumit performs he will be gone because everyone has been offered him and he’s not in the future plans of this club. I think an AL team would be crazy to not want him. He’s a perfect DH/C/1b and maybe Of in some parks.
Totally agree with you… I bet Doumit has a solid year and gets a lot more league recognition
In terms of being ahead or behind, the 1st inning was the worst (-14) followed by the 8th inning (-10 from the 7th). The 3rd was the best at +4 from the 2nd.
% wise they had their asses royally kicked in extra innings. 2-9? Gag!
Did anyone ask him to define “exodus”? The old “So, what exactly do you mean by “is” bit?”
How bad are the stats if u take Ross and Duke out?
They accounted for about 27% of all innings pitched last year and were the only starters w/an ERA under league average. I’d guess the stats would be REAL BAD without them.
Mark in Dallas- get a life..It’s an editorial.. Mark is over at the PBC blog crying like a little baby..dude is pathetic..Unemployment nation wide over 10 %, disater in Haiti. and Mark is going to cry like a little girl over an editorial about the worthless Pirates…My God, some people need a life…
on the bright side, sure been refreshing not hearing from him for a few days…
Editorials have been around for years..Are u that stupid ?
I would stop trying to poke fun at Mark in Dallas. Hes entitled to his opinion just like you are.
no man these guys are the know all tell all. And by that i mean know all tell all the same thing evvveeerrry daaay.
u know George he is, but when u cry and moan like it’s the end of the world, that is overdoing it..In the grand scheme of things, Nutting’s cheapness may drive us crazy, but this country has bigger issues.
I understand that… but this is a public forum. Key word is public. Mark in Dallas may annoy you but he can say what he wants to. He hasnt said anything on this site that he hasnt backed up with facts. I know he defends Nutting, but he can do so if he wants to.
Coonellys so full of crap when talking about the young players. Hes either blind or plain dumb, telling the fans what a great young core of young players we have. Other tahn Alavarez, McCutchen and Lincoln id like to hear some names. Id lock up Ikwamura now with a 2 year deal rather than dealing him in July for a stale loaf of bread. Duke and Maholm ar3 next to go along with Doumit who will bring nothing in return.Payroll will then be lowered more as Nutting will once again have a big smile on his face.Same old same old. Nothing has changed or will changed until the cancer is removed. Please cure the cancer Mario!
amen Moondog…and the sad part is, clowns like MarkInDallas will defend the annual firesales
I like the idea of locking up Aki for a couple of years, although I would wait to see if he can stay healthy before doing so.
what good is a quality start if the offense never shows up!? just think if we had those quality starts when bay/nady/mclouth/laroche/sanchez were in pitt! it just seems like one year we have pitching and then the next year we have offense. it never seems to show up at the same time…could all this be just bad luck!?!?!?
i know, i know….probably not