So let’s talk about what it will take to not be another pretender team since we’ve been able to see the Bucs play a little.
Obviously we have a gaping hole at shortstop as neither Crosby or Cedeno are major league answers. Since Neal Huntington left the club short-changed here, and because we don’t have any talent in the upper system, we’re going to bleed defensive runs at short all year. The free agent market was thin but I suggested in November we needed to go after Orlando Cabrera or deal from our moderate pitching strength to get a younger player ready to take over the position. Neither happened and now we’re stuck. For us to be more than a pretending club, for me it has to start with our defense up the middle starting with Cedeno. We’ll go as Cedeno goes.
The second most obvious hole we have is at first base. Clement is athletic enough to handle the position defensively with enough reps, but can. he. hit. major. league. pitching? Huntington’s short-term plan is to either open with Clement’s unknown bat or toss him aside and put Jones at first and let Church play right. Either way we end up with a pretender at one of the corner positions and that spells trouble. But I’m not going to go out as far on a limb as other media writers suggesting that we’ll only be as good as Clement can hit, instead I’m going to say we’re only going to be as good as Tabata can hit and field the ball because that’s ultimately the way it shakes out.. Tabata in right, Jones at first, and Clement catching. How soon these position adjustments are made will determine whether we have a chance to break the pretender role or not, although I don’t expect Clement to be catching full-time until later in the year or next year.
Out of the second hole above comes our third obvious hole – lack of power on our corners. Milledge, Jones, LaRoche, and Clement or Tabata just aren’t enough thump. And if Huntington eventually comes out and says his intention was to build a doubles oriented offense, then that theory also fails. Milledge is going to sting the ball when he makes contact, but the probability of his contact rate being high enough to warrant talk isn’t very high; Tabata will be a rookie in 2010 so we can’t expect too much from him; and — honestly — who knows what LaRoche, Jones, or Clement are going to do. That’s a lot of question marks from the four corners. In order for us to avoid the pretender label, three of the four corners are going to have to be league average or better offensively. Good luck on that one.
Our fourth concern has to be in Doumit’s inability to stay healthy. His habits as a receiver suggest he’s going to get hurt along the way.. the question becomes, how bad? I don’t think anybody questions his ability to hit the ball when he’s healthy but, is. he. healthy? Flip-a-coin. We need Doumit to step up in 2010 and be the offensive threat he can be or we might as well write off the 2010 season.
Defensively, we’re going to bleed runs. Aki will save as many as he gives up, Cedeno will give up more than he saves, LaRoche seems solid enough to save a few, Clement at first in development mode will bleed runs, Jones in right may seem like a neutral offering but to me he’s below average defender out there, Cutch should save us runs now that he’s in his second year but I’d be happy with +0 instead of him giving up runs, and Milledge and Doumit will both bleed runs, albeit Milledge looked great on some defensive metrics (not mine though). With all the pitch-to-contact arms we have, this is not a dream defense by any means.
That leaves pitching. I’m content that Maholm will produce at a mid-rotation level but still find himself trying to pitch out of too many jams, Duke may be a stat king but his stuff is so ordinary he’s likely to get hammered big time this year because everyone knows he only has one game plan – stay away, Ohlendorf living upstairs is a logistical nightmare but he got away with it last year – the question is, can he again, and who knows what to expect from soft-hearted Morton. With three of the four starters being sinkerballers, how can we possibly expect anything from them during the start of the season with it being cold and their arms still tight? It’s likely to be the end of April before they get loose enough for us to see high enough groundball rates for us to have a better chance, so look for some ugly games early.
And who exactly can even be our #5? The technical definition for a #5 is something like a guy who can give you 120 innings while keeping you in more games than not, but Hart and McCutchen are bigger question marks than our problem at short. We need someone to step up during the last half of spring training.. Bryan Morris, Brad Lincoln, McCutchen or Hart, Veal.. someone has to. If not, then we can just mark the calendar three out of four every-fifth-start days with an “L”. We’re that bad off. Throw in Kerrigan’s desire to limit innings to Duke and others because of fatigue, throw in the potential of arm abuse from heavy workloads two years ago from Morton and Ohlendorf, and throw in unhealthy relievers we are carrying, and, man, we really have some big question marks with this group. And don’t be too surprised if you see us having to use Carrasco to close games during the season.
On the utility side we have a backup catcher who can’t block the ball or hit, we are carrying a Rule 5 outfielder for some insane reason, and we have wannabes hanging around in Crosby, Pearce, Vazquez, Moss, Walker, and Young.
That’s one hell of a lot of question marks to overcome so here’s a couple of suggestions..
We are going to see a lot of players dropped off rosters and put on the wire here shortly. And I mean a lot. I think it is imperative that Huntington latch out and grab some of the better talent that becomes available. So far he’s refused to take risks but that needs to change.
Another way that can help is for Coonelly to green light Huntington to burn a few of the extra years of control we’ve gained the last couple of years. It will cost more in the long run to do that, but we can advance our development by at least one-half a year if we do. For instance, Tabata breaks with the club, Jones goes to first, Jaramillo who I believe has one option left, goes to 3A, Clement goes to backup catcher or to 3A if Jaramillo doesn’t have an option, and Lincoln is added to the rotation once we have a need for a 5th starter. I wouldn’t push the envelope on Alvarez just yet and would wait to bring him up in June.
That’s an aggressive stance financially but I think it’s necessary to shut down some of the bleeding defensively, to add some offense down the road, and to get Lincoln on track ASAP so that we can deal one of our starters in July like Maholm if we get an offer we can’t refuse.
Those are a few ways that might sneak out a few more wins for us. What ideas do you have?
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I watched some of the Yankees game and wondered why all the pitchers in spring training seem to be missing high so far? Have mound heights changed? Has side work changed? Or is it because I’m watching the same staffs over and over and over? I suppose the third answer is the right one.
Sabathia was crushed missing high and being too predictive as he looked to be working on certain pitch types each inning and was punished as a result. I thought one guy was impressive – Romulo Sanchez.. the guy Huntington gave away for Eric Hacker who we let walk away last winter. Go figure.. think there was a little extra motivation in Sanchez’s heart during Tuesday’s performance?
Anyway, once the Yankees brought in the garbage in Boone Logan and the youngsters in Hector Noesi and Jeremy Bliech, our backups went to work and put a “W” up for us. And yes, I saw Jones’ towering blast. LOL
It’s a typical spring training.. pitchers who threw competitively all winter or who have early stuff look like a million dollars, and pitchers who need more time or want to work on things regardless of the outcome are getting hammered. It’s pretty hard to decipher any of it without more information.
So who do we play Wednesday? The Yankees again? Boooorrrrringggg. No, it’s Baltimore.. the team with a lot more problems and question marks than the Pirates (is that possible?). Perhaps we need to trade Young to them? Anyway, Duke throws against Bergesen and they have Hendrickson scheduled as well. We’ll see Donnelly, McCutchen, Chulk, and Jakuwhatever. Too bad we missed Millwood this trip.
I’d say we can start looking a bit closer at stats starting this weekend.
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My son had his first t-ball game.. great stuff. He played first and actually caught a solid grounder and tagged first, missed a throw from the pitcher, and missed another grounder. At the plate he went 3-3 like most of the kids did. Fun, fun, stuff.
And I swear I saw Boras hanging around passing out business cards to the parents. I dunno, maybe I was mistaken. Maybe..
Related posts:
I’m not sure why you are suggesting that Tabata goes north right away. I’m one that likes Tabata long term, but he hasn’t shown much of anything yet this spring. I think he’s got to go to AAA and show he can dominate there before being called up. I think there’s a chance he could do that this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he had to wait till next year to get his shot.
I think Clement will go north but he’ll be on a short leash and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Church in right field if he doesn’t put it together within a month or so.
On the backup catcher, Kratz just might be the guy instead of Jaramillo. I’m not a Jaramillo fan, but it seems Huntington has started paving the way for Kratz to leapfrog him by saying that he might want Jaramillo to get consistent ABs to start the season and continue his development.
We’ll see how the pitchers develop this spring it’s early to be writing anyone off just yet. DanMac gives up a lot of HRs, that much we do know.
> On the backup catcher, Kratz just might be the guy instead of Jaramillo
naw.. Kratz’s body is too big.. Jaramillo won’t be going anywhere. But that’s my thought.
Jake,
Interesting thoughts on Clement- I remember you writing that there was no mistaking the Pirates intentions about him being part of their future plans, but all I’ve read is that his catching is not. Are his knees better than we’re told? And it won’t be too, too long before Sanchez is up.
This whole C/1B/RF situation with the club certainly has me scratching my head. And if all goes well (with Clement/Tabata)- Then Bam Bam Jones is the odd man out??!!
I wouldn’t be to upset if Tabs stays down until a Sept. call-up. And I still am convinced the FO is only thinking long term, long term, long term. In 2011 and maybe 2012 they’ll still have a high draft choice (I’ve got the patience, I guess).
there is a VERY deep draft in 2011.
One thing I have noticed this spring is Laroche has to be at third, his defense seems to be getting better and better. I do believe bat wise he should be a second baseman and I think he will be. Fifth starter I like Veal,I say give him a shot. If he fails u can always fall back on the other options. Pedro Alvarez is really struggling with lefties. As everyone knows we dont have a everyday SS but I would just run a different guy out there every day and see if one of the three guys who can play there sticks out. Hopefully the competition gets the best of them.
I imagine it will be
But Jake, in all seriousness. Do you believe they are really planning on switching Clement back to catcher?
yup. I don’t think they believe in his bat like we are being led to believe they believe in his bat. Make sense? Sanchez is two years off, Doumit has to be dealt, if Jones hits he has to play first, that leaves Clement as the backup catcher. But I think they want to give him a consistent 500 AB in ’10 just to make sure his bat doesn’t play since there is such a division amongst scouts.
Well, Jake, still trying to see where the sense lies in this weird situation.
O.K. Yes, if I was G.M. I would lean toward a Doumit trade if the offer was attractive.
O.K. Yes, Sanchez is probably closer to two years away.
But what about all the scuttlebutt concerning Clement’s knees? Why would there be such a charade about it? If his knees are perfectly serviceable, why not just declare him the back-up catcher and platoon him at first? Jones would then platoon with Clement at first and at RF with whomever. Clement would get plenty of AB’s in that situation, too.
Also, Is Clement really a better back-up catcher than JJ/Katz/Walker? I’m guessing he would be- but, again, what about the knees??!!
I’m sorry about the barrage of questions, Jake, but I’m desperately trying to wrap my brain around this one. I’d appreciate your thoughts.
> But what about all the scuttlebutt concerning Clement’s knees?
The Bucs are planning long-term so they are protecting him right now. Plus, we don’t know if our FO will ever be convinced Clement could catch 120 games.
> why not just declare him the back-up catcher and platoon him at first?
Huntington is making it as easy as possible for the young man to concentrate on quality at bats this year. Nothing more will be put on his plate. If he can prove he can hit major league pitching over 450 – 500 at bats this year, THEN Huntington will think about where to play him in ’11 and on. Don’t forget, Huntington NEEDS this young man to hit on his resume or he’s going to take a hit from the fans in the trade.
> Is Clement really a better back-up catcher than JJ/Katz/Walker
I think his upside is significantly higher than those guys, absolutely. Is he a better catcher? Hmm.. not better than JJ, probably not better than Katz, but better than Walker yes. I’d put him a tick above Doumit defensively.
Great post Jake. I couldnt have summed it up any better myself.
“Perhaps we need to trade Young to them?”
Funny you should mention that – http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/roberts-injury-may-prompt-orioles-to-explore-trade-market.html
Any chance we could get anything of value for him?
Also, odds that he’s in the line-up tonight?
don’t know.. probably not likely because there is enough film on him out there.
the Roberts injury wasn’t really new.
Did your post yesterday have anything to so with the three minor league pitchers out until July?
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10069/1041607-100.stm
no sir.
Looks like the Rangers are still having catching problems-could they revisit a Doumit deal??I suspect Young or Vazquez will be dealt before the end of spring. very good post Jake!Wow -T-ball started already?We still have some snow on the ground.Our league opens April 24th-all 3 kids playing this year!
Bill
Doumit’s gone.. when is the question. I think the Bucs would take a massive PR hit if they dealt him now so look for a June/July deal as being more realistic at this point.
Jake,
This is at least the second time that you mentioned that there are several interesting players who are out of options that may be cut. Are you keeping your eyes on any specific players who may fit into the Pirates multiple needs?
Q: Are you a vocal little league parent?
He probably controls the salary cap for each team
haha.. I did ask for new dirt for the infield. They told me I was welcome to pay for it and haul it in.
> Are you keeping your eyes on any specific players who may fit into the Pirates multiple needs?
I can’t watch the wire.. it’s not published unfortunately.
> Are you a vocal little league parent?
LOL.. no, I’m too busy running like crazy with the video recorder catching every play he makes to be vocal about anything.
From the P-G: “The dominant overall impression is that it’s striking to me how disciplined everything is. The players move with almost military precision from station to station, the managers and coaches are wound tight as a drum, and there even is a sign on the bulletin board listing 11 players who that day did not maintain clean lockers. (No kidding. The player’s name is there, and right next to it is something like “Clothes hanging.”)”
Man, that would be no fun at all. I’d hate that. The job is on the field. Why does the condition of your locker matter? Even being a teacher/coach in such a situation is no fun. To do so you have to turn yourself into a not so nice person. It wears on your after a while.
yup.. part of what I have been talking about over the last year. You don’t earn respect by treating men like babies.. you earn respect by treating men as men.
Would it be a hard/time consuming/cost effective measure to add in some sort of chat room where we could possibly chat during games, etc? That might be cool…unless there is one and I’m unaware.
hmm.. I’ll look into it Rob. Thanks for the suggestion.
good idea..may need moderator’s
you would make an excellent moderator neil.
I coach a little league baseball 14-16 years old with my brother Tony H… Last year we lost to go to the championship unfortunately. Im only 22 so sometimes the “loud parents” have some words because I guess they think Im too young, but Tony H and I get pretty intense with the team so the parents tend to love us. I honestly dont mind the loud parents or the parents like Jake that run around with their cameras. They tend to get more into the game and its fun to feed off their energy. Jake its definitely cool that you have a big interest in your kid’s sports because theres a few parents on my team that could care less and it shows on the kid’s face, so good for you.
man, I’m sweating every AB, every GB, every throw toward him, every time he’s on base. But I’m not loud yet – that will come in little league, not t-ball.
I just feel blessed he’s playing and having fun.