By Jake, on December 22, 2009, at 3:10 pm |
By Jake, on June 1, 2009, at 3:40 pm |
Matt Purke, southpaw, Klein High School, Spring, Texas.
Purke has a projectable frame at 6′ 3″, he’s a little thin but since he’s still only 18 he’ll see more filling out, his mechanics are clean, he’s very athletic, he already has three solid pitches with a fastball that explodes out of his hand (55 fastball, 50 slider, 40 change), outstanding control, a lower three-quarters delivery that offers some deception (I’d guess that if he was throwing more on a downward plane he’d lose a tick of velocity but he’d see more late sink which he naturally has plus be a bit harder to pick up), he has a good Christian background, and he’s signable, albeit a tougher sign. I’m guessing it would take about $2.5MM (think Jarrod Parker).
Now I hear you.. why take a pitcher, much less a prep pitcher at #4? Neal Huntington, in his weekly show Sunday, hinted at his draft philosophy when he said this: play wma. In my book that’s a serious flaw as we’ve witnessed in Tampa, Milwaukee, and Colorado. For one, Huntington isn’t a Billy Beane or John Schuerholz with his peers, nor does he have an Eddie Bane with Bane’s outstanding scouting staff from his bird dogs up. Plus, our development system isn’t exactly our strongest point either – we have a hard time just finding quality field staff, much less rovers. So for Huntington to draft thinking he can eventually trade his position players for premium pitching down the line is foolish thinking in my book.
Continue reading » 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates Draft: Bucco Blog recommends..
By Jake, on April 4, 2009, at 7:55 pm |
We officially ended spring training with a .400 winning percentage the last 30 games (12-15-2) which is a “normal” spring training season for us based on the last few years. We began the spring winning early and then crashed and burned as time went on. Can we assume, then, that we’ll come out of the regular gate strong? Let’s review our schedule again:
– 28 of the first 48 games are on the road. Of those 48 games:
– we have a winning record last three against just one club (Nats); and
– we have less than a .400 winning percentage against five of the sixteen series opponents.
The last time we opened in St. Louis was 1983 and we went on to an 84-78 record with Chuck Tanner as our manager despite only scoring 659 runs on the year. The reason? Five starters – Rick Rhoden, Larry McWilliams, John Candelaria, Lee Tunnell, and Jose DeLeon, combined for 66% of the innings logging a 3.24 ERA along the way. Wow.
I’ve churned my models over the last five days and there’s no question the division is weaker but the difference between a weak division and one that is weaker isn’t much unfortunately. We’ve heard the projection guys all say the Pirates will finish last, then the Astros, then the Brewers and Cards will be there somewhere, but I’m here to tell you throw all that out the door this year.
Why?
Because I don’t believe the quality of baseball played in the division this year will be anything like we’ve seen the last five years. My personal guesstimate is that play is going to be sloppier across the league, there will be more runs scored than anyone believes, and runs of “good luck” will be a lot more streaky. I believe this division is a lot more wide open than anyone is projecting.
What did I say? The division is a lot more wide open than anyone – and I mean anyone – is projecting. That’s right – and, go to the bank on it. Am I implying the Pirates could finish with a .500 record? No, but I can see a 72 – 75 win season.. 78 wins if we get the right breaks.
Surprised?
Don’t be. It’s not that we are better – it’s that the whole is weaker and I think all the outside projection systems have focused too hard on past performances under better conditions (better played games) which, I believe, won’t be the case this year (overlooked but not forgotten.. key in on the statement: “But look at the wins and losses – that’s a 17 game swing despite a very low -8 runs allowed difference”).
I told you what to “historically” expect from this club this year.. a 67-95 record, and I also told you that I made my “annual season prediction” at pirateball.com’s discussion forum of 60-102. So why am I now telling you something that seems to be completely different? Because I waited to find out what traditional media and the fantasy houses all saw before I ran my models to see if they were seeing what I was seeing/feeling.
And nobody does.
This is a 72 win club in this division this year, all things remaining equal, and don’t be too surprised if they win 75.. or more. And it’s going to shock a lot of folks, including the Pirates front office.
But not you – because now you know better.
Go get your tickets because if they break .500 (long, long shot), you’re going to want to have the best seat in the house when they do it.
72 wins or better.
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Pat Bresnehan was released today and that is a huge shock to me considering the arm trouble he had in 2007 certainly couldn’t have cleared enough by now to make a rational decision. There has to be more to that story than we’re hearing because many scouts I talked to liked his 8th inning upside if he could stay healthy. Last time I saw a gun on him (2007) he was (over)throwing at 95 and his slider was biting pretty good.
I don’t get it.
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I told more than one scout that Kris Benson’s head was screwed back on this year. He made the Rangers rotation although he’s not yet 100%, but watch and see how he does from about May – July. I think a couple of clubs missed out on his seriousness to return.
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Chris Duffy also made the Brewers. That’s FAB – u – LOUS for the Duff. I wish him well every game except against us. Now watch their defensive efficiency this year when he plays.
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I believe that we are breaking camp with too few AB – especially consecutive game AB – for most of our starting position players, and our starters have yet to be challenged. All of this makes me believe we’re going to start slow while getting rocked – we’ll see.
By Jake, on February 25, 2009, at 12:29 am |
Over the last four years, pitchers developed in our farm system graduated to Pittsburgh and then became test subjects for our pitching coaches. Jim Colborn wasn’t satisfied with some of the mechanical traits 3A pitching coach Jeff Andrews installed, so he changed them, Andrews moved up and de-tweaked Colborn’s work, didn’t get good results so he attempted new tweaks, and now Joe Kerrigan has a new tweak of his own in mind..
.. to pitch more inside.
Before we go any further I think it’s critical to understand the Pirates have three potential “power” starters who have demonstrated in the bigs they can throw a better than average fastball (91 mph or better) inside consistently: Ian Snell, Jason Davis, and Ross Ohlendorf. Everyone else is in the average to below average range, or they haven’t thrown enough above 3A to qualify here.
“Throwing inside to a hitter is at the heart of aggressive pitching… If you teach a hitter that you’ll throw inside — if he knows that — then his whole approach to facing you is quite different… A lot of young pitchers in the big leagues right now are afraid to throw inside. This fear invites a hitter to dig in and dominate the outer part of the plate.” — Nolan Ryan’s Pitcher’s Bible
As we all know and Ryan suggests, pitching inside simply adds another element to the batter’s conscious level while in the box.. one that typically makes him uncomfortable. Back in Bob Gibson days we would generally see an 0-2 pitch thrown high and tight and then followed up with a slider low and away for the strikeout because the batter was still sweating from the 0-2 close call.
But times have changed. Joe Torre said not too long ago that “we’re more sensitive” about inside pitches today. Next time you see someone throw under a batter’s chin, watch and see if that batter doesn’t come up with glassy eyes staring the pitcher down with a murderous glance. And if the pitcher throwing the ball happens to be on a 90+ loss type team going nowhere, you can expect benches to clear.
So before we go any further, let me answer the most asked question since Kerrigan was hired: do the Pirates actually throw less frequently inside, and if so, to what degree.
To answer that question I had to first make a decision on what “inside” really meant. As we all know the plate is 17″ wide and jumps to 20″ because any part of the ball that crosses over the white part of the plate is theoretically a strike. John Walsh found umpires calling a 24″ wide zone and I suppose that means they are including “the black” area around the plate as part of the zone, but that isn’t rulebook correct.
So for this post we’ll use Walsh’s 24 inch width finding and use all pitches that are 3.6 inches (0.3 * 12 inches) or closer on the side of the plate closest to the batter. In PITCHf/x terms that means all pitches less than -0.7′ to right hand batters and all pitches greater than 0.7′ to left hand batters on the px line.
Now to answer the above question, yes, the Pirates did throw 9.0% (304) fewer inside pitches in 2008 as compared to the average number thrown by all other 29 teams. That’s equivalent to 1.8 fewer per game. The issue doesn’t sound like such a big deal when you think of it across 162 games, does it? But don’t let that fool you because there is too much bias floating around that 1.8 figure.
Better yet, let’s take a look at what happened last year when we did throw inside versus the MLB league average:
(Notes: LHB is against left hand batters, RHB is against right hand batters, and BiP is balls in Play.)
Holy Moly, no wonder we weren’t pitching inside as much.. we were absolutely smoked when we did. In fact, we were so scared to throw inside strikes to right hand batters we ended up throwing/having called about 8% more balls when we tried.
But perhaps that is Kerrigan’s real goal? Not to get them to throw more inside per se, but to get them comfortable throwing more strikes inside? I can just see our opposing team’s licking their chops as I write that.
Obviously pitching inside isn’t going to be the answer across the board. As I noted above, Snell, Ohlendorf, and Davis are the only starters who have enough heat to throw inside effectively because major league batters can easily turn on an 88 mph heater up and in. And they did, as evidenced above.
And look at that insane .937 OPS left hand batters enjoyed feasting off our inside pitching. We could probably start a high school pitcher and get better results than that. Ok, maybe not, but you get the idea. That’s embarrassing and clearly demonstrates the lack of “pitching inside” tools our collective pitching roster has.
Now don’t think for a second our pitchers don’t have these stats at their disposal.. they do. They know if they get mauled coming in or not so I doubt seriously anything Kerrigan tries to push on them is going to make a difference one way or another. See the Pittsburgh Pirates clubhouse culture book, Chapter 16: ”We run the show and do what the hell we want, and dang if you are going to devalue us even more” on page 63.
Don’t expect more inside pitching overall except, perhaps, early in the year, and even then probably only from Ohlendorf, Snell, Davis, and maybe Gorzelanny. Oh, but watch them all try their best throwing inside during the spring.. and get away with it to boot.
Here’s the location of every ball in play by a left hand batter against Snell last year that resulted in runs scored:
By Jake, on February 10, 2009, at 1:56 pm |
I initially asked for your opinion whether or not the 2009 Pirates might surprise the other five clubs, and then looked at our hitting in Part II trying to decide if we might put more runs up than most expect. Your responses were favorable in the first question and in the second we found even if all eight starting position players had duplicate career best years we might still be short runs scored.
Obviously then our pitching has to limit the number of runs allowed for us to have a chance at being a surprise team. And remember, the more runs allowed our pitching can remove from the board across the year, the better our hitting production starts to look.
First let’s look at the basics.. how Pirates pitching did the last four years as against the other five NLCD clubs. I broke this into two categories – those who started ten or more games in one year were put into the starting pitching (SP) pile, and those who started less than 10 games in any year but pitched more than 20 innings were put into the relief pitching (RP) pile.
Here’s the chart:
Pretty ugly starting pitching line for the Bucs, isn’t it? More walks issued, fewer innings worked, fewer strikeouts, and a ton of extra batters faced per inning. The only good stat is fewer home runs allowed which we expect to find considering half our games are played at PNC Park where it is tough for right handers to hit one out of the park.
Let’s combine the two groups and then compare one against the other:
Yikes, a 73 run difference per year average mostly fueled from too many hits and walks allowed. And by the looks of things, our pitchers have been playing three extra games each year based on the extra numbers of batters faced.
That’s not good. But at the same time we know that three of the last four years have been development years for our young starters, so it’s not shocking to see lots of problems.
Ok, so if we’re going to surprise anyone this year we all agree it has to start with pitching so let’s look at career best years from Maholm, Gorzelanny, Snell, and Duke, and use Karstens as the fifth starter and use his best production over 162 games as per Baseball Reference. Then let’s compare our best against the NLCD average over the last four years to see if we have a prayer or not:
A tick better ERA with 2% better runs allowed, fewer home runs, and significantly fewer strikeouts all across nearly an identical number of batters faced. But look at the wins and losses – that’s an 17 game swing despite a very low -8 runs allowed difference (where’s the beef hitting?).
So if all five of our projected starting pitchers equal their career best years in 2009, that only gets us to the NLCD median last four. That’s not going to work. We better hope we haven’t seen any of these guys breakout years yet, huh?
Ok, so if our hitting is projected to be significantly under the last four year NLCD average, and our pitching likely will be too, how can we become a surprise team?
Luck seems the only way, at least in 2009. Remember what Branch Rickey believed: luck is the residual of design. Certainly the additions of Joe Kerrigan and Perry Hill can swing a tick more luck our way, and who knows what Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss really have in their tanks, and we all know that any team that can stay healthy during the year is more likely than not to see their fair share of luck along the way.
But it sure would be better if we had more tools in our shed, huh?
(Post updated at 10:13 AM 2/11/09)
By Jake, on February 9, 2009, at 5:36 pm |
Part I is here. Ok, let’s look at what it would take to be a surprising team in 2009. In Part II we’ll look at hitting and in Part III we’ll look at what pitching will be needed.
Hitting
The game of baseball begins with pitching and defense, but it ultimately ends with hitting. If your pitching and defense can shut opposing teams down, you still can’t win if you don’t score more runs than the other club does.
The old saying is that you have to carry a .500 record or better against division teams if you want to play in October so let’s take a look at how each of our eight positions compare to the production of the other five NLCD clubs, position-by-position, except that an outfielder is an outfielder for this post.
First, here is the median production of every position in the NLCD (not including Pittsburgh) over the last four years based on 200 at bats or more at their primary position. In other words, if player “X” had more than 200 AB during a year I then looked at where he played the most games and used those AB as his primary position. For the record, the NLCD production was a tick better than the MLB production for every position except catcher.
If we assume that chart represents the minimum value our offense in 2009 must achieve for a .500 club, then we should compare those values first to what we have produced at each position those last four years based on the same criteria.. 200 AB or more at the player’s primary position:
One thing is immediately clear – the lack of home run production and walks leading to significantly lower total bases. Let’s see how bad it is by first normalizing the Pirates figures to the NLCD figures by using AB as the normalizer:
Pretty ugly, huh? Not only is that -77 total bases short including 25 less home runs and 56 fewer walks, the really ugly part is that the numbers above are only across 2504 AB. Here is a chart showing the differences (normalized PIT vs NLCD):
Ouch.
But have faith.. let’s look at the NLCD averages in chart one against our 2009 projected lineup using our career best years as the baseline other than for Morgan, Moss, and Andy LaRoche which I’ll use their 162 game high at Baseball Reference. Then let’s look at the normalized differences of those career best numbers against the NLCD averages in the first chart:
Believe it or not, even using our career best years we’re still 4% short in runs scored overall (356 vs 342). True, Andy LaRoche certainly has a lot of ground he could improve on the above numbers in 2009 and that will help. Plus, Brandon Moss also has some room for growth according to Huntington and others.
But even without any decline from McLouth’s 2008 season, even with Sanchez and Wilson duplicating their finest years ever, even with Adam LaRoche putting up a 30+ home run career type year, and Ryan Doumit crushing out another sizzling performance, we’re still short in the runs scored department.
Now if we’re going to surprise any clubs in 2009 it looks like the evidence will have to be in our pitching projections because it sure won’t be from our hitting unless something very unusual occurs.
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Sorry for the delay in posting. I went flying with a friend of mine in his new Cessna Grand Caravan and we had to land with a fuel pump problem in Knoxville, TN. Hairy stuff.
I’ll post Part III of this probably sometime during the day tomorrow and then be back to posting every night.
By Jake, on February 5, 2009, at 11:07 pm |
After careful consideration, here are 2009’s Sleepers and Foolers.
Sleepers
1. Jimmy Barthmaier. While communicating with one of the Pirates brass last year after Barthmaier got mauled against the Rays in Pittsburgh, I said: “he’s a keeper.” His mound presence was below average, his stuff was about the same, and his command even worse, but the way batters tended to back out on him means there’s more in the tank than anyone thinks. Will it shine in 2009?
2. Robinson Diaz. My longshot sleeper for two reasons.. one, I believe Doumit will be out of action within 90 days of breaking camp and somebody will need to step up, and two, his glove is good enough to handle our staff now that Kerrigan is around to help him along instead of Andrews. His bat won’t be the exciting factor, his glove might be the sleeper.
3. Freddy Sanchez. Smell that in the air? That’s bacon cooking and Sanchez knows he has to come out of the gate on fire to get some or he’s likely to be eating only canned hash the rest of his career. That does something to competitive good guys.
4. Nate McLouth. He wasn’t on my beta sleeper list and if he avoids his arb hearing by agreeing with the Bucs on a multiyear, then scratch him here. However, if his case is heard keep him here because he’s going to be one pissed off dude (as if hot head Nate can get hotter) and he’ll be playing hard thinking the Bucs will likely spin him off in July, if not earlier.
5. Adam LaRoche. Early slump? Naw, he’s got the same bug Freddy Sanchez has knowing if it doesn’t come together early for him he’s likely to be sitting on the sideline next winter looking for a gig until July. If it’s in him to hit the ball early, this will be the year he does it.
6. Jeff Karstens. Kerrigan’s poster boy, to be sure. If he stays healthy and can get a couple of his pitches to cooperate, he could suprise everyone including himself.
Foolers
1. Brandon Moss. Also not on my initial list, but my hunch is that he won’t perform until McCutchen comes up to take all the pressure off him, then he’ll relax. Look for him to come around in 2010, although “coming around” may still not be good enough.
2. Andrew McCutchen. He has no business being in Pittsburgh in 2009 but Nutting needs to sell tickets so look for him early on. His bat might play until video gets around but then he’ll be eaten alive by MLB pitching coaches who find “the problem.” Throw in that McCutchen is fueled by the attention he seeks and gets and with Sanchez and Wilson dominating the clubhouse for their own need for attention, McCutchen’s tank runs empty real fast. If Wilson is gone quick enough, he might settle in faster but will still have trouble.
3. Tom Gorzelanny. Starts out strong but then the abuse that he absorbed last year from being made to throw with a bad back, no legs, and lingering arm problems will be too much to overcome. Plus, 2010 will be his first year of arb so he’ll be pushing too hard adding another layer of frustration when his arm won’t cooperate. If his arm doesn’t break, he’ll be one of the league’s premier pitchers from 2010 on.
4. Ian Snell. Like Gorzelanny, this will be his second consecutive year on the Fooler list. Look for him to bust out early, tame off in May, crash and burn in June or July, and end up in the pen in September with the Pirates trying to keep his arm, and head, attached. If somehow he decides he wants to pitch instead of throwing again, he has the ability to put up startling strikeout numbers although his BABIP and HR/9 might go through the roof.
5. Jack Freaking Wilson. He went to Vegas thinking he was Manny and left with his head tucked under his tail then blew off the fans all winter. His first step was his best asset but that’s long gone leaving the Pirates having to pay for nothing but mouth. Hey Jack, just when do you plan on retiring again?
6. Ryan Doumit. He got the big money and all year long he’ll be thinking harder about where to spend it than caring about the game he’s in just like Ian Snell, Kris Benson, Jack Wilson, and Freddy Sanchez who all took the ”year after” A-train. I expect he’ll be on the DL early but if he doesn’t go, watch the other NLCD clubs finally figure out he has a hitch in his swing on the left side. Don’t expect too much from this party boy unless he really has matured. Riiighhht.
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Here are previous years: 2006 Sleepers and Foolers, 2007 Sleepers and Foolers, and 2008 Sleepers and Foolers.
By Jake, on February 1, 2009, at 10:00 pm |
It’s nice to finally be able to look down our system ranks and see a few tools but the system is still too thin for a club that begins it’s second year in full rebuild mode. The current short-term plan of the Pirates appears to be zeroed in on 2011+, instead of 2013+ which is where I believe they need to focus.
That being said, the balance between seeming to be competitive so the business side of the organization remains healthy versus actually being competitive is tricky. Ryan Doumit and Paul Maholm are players that most likely will not be around the next time the Pirates reach .500 so their eventual trades could significantly impact our system’s depth, which is desperately needed.
Also because of that tedious relationship between finances and competition, the Pirates ended up misgauging the market change on Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez late 2007 through 2008 and we are now stuck holding their bags. That’s a position that shouldn’t have happened and cost the system no less than two above average prospects.
Lastly, the Pirates continue to have strained relationships with agents and players which is affecting the ability of the organization to take a few giant leaps. By strained I mean nobody seems to be buying into the idea that this organization is honestly changing. On the surface the club appears to be but the core is still owned by a well-documented frugal miser by the name of Ogden Nutting and his son Bob who, by all accounts, could care less about fielding a competitive product. Their goal has been the flow of black ink.. not wins.
This is a defining year for the Pirates in many ways – attendance and fan support, corporate sponsorships, and roster management/rebuilding efforts, just to name a few. With the fan’s hope machines running on fumes, the Pirates GM faces some unbelievable challenges during the year and if he doesn’t get additional support from Frank Coonelly and Bob Nutting, rebuilding could take a crushing step backward.
Bucco Blog’s Top Ten Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect List is below. I don’t list players who have made their MLB debut.
1. Andrew McCutchen. The kid’s a natural spark plug. Many believe he is an average five-tool player but that’s three more tools than nearly everyone else in our system. Alvarez may have one superior tool in a plus-plus bat, but McCutchen has the entire package.
2. Pedro Alvarez. Bad knees and selfish attitude aside, his bat remains one of the only true gifts in our entire system. Now the question becomes, will he take his bat out of second gear before his contract year? I’m betting his big-head attitude remains as much a problem as Scott Boras is to Frank Coonelly.
3. Bryan Morris. I really wanted to put him number one, but I’ll wait for his arm to prove it to me in 2009.
4. Jose Tabata. His tools, outside of his makeup, belong here but how long will it take before everything comes together for him?
5. Shelby Ford. He’s no Maz with a glove but his bat will play better than Maz’s. I’ve been high on him since he was overdrafted and believe he’s worth it. He needs to be looking over his shoulder at Jarek Cunningham though who may get turned around.
6. Brad Lincoln. He’s had the time to heal mentally and physically – now he has to put it all back together again. I think he breaks out significantly in 2009.
7. Don Veal. I wasn’t high on him when he was in the Cubs system but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for one year.
8. Justin Wilson. Very capable southpaw who should begin to move up in the Bucs system during 2009.
9. Neil Walker. My last year of typing his name, I suspect. Just not my kind of guy but remains sexy being the local product.
10. Quinton Miller. How can you not like this kid since he’s throwing mid 90’s out of high school? He has a long way to go but has some polish.
The system is fuzzy from seventh on.
By Jake, on January 11, 2009, at 3:01 pm |
Quick, you make the call - you are the Pirates GM, your reworked club took it on the chin in the second-half of 2008 and now you have to make a decision.. stand pat or add free agents in 2009. What would you do?
Any answer is fuzzy logic until you peek at the Pirates 2009 schedule.
Each winter I do an analysis on who we play and when and where we play them trying to make some sense of the upcoming season in terms of expected wins and losses. Last year’s analysis was done in February after all the rosters were pretty much set but this year I’m looking earlier because of the critical importance of upcoming roster management choices and the continuing potential for trades and/or acquisitions.
One thing became crystal clear after breaking it all down this year more so than in any of the previous five years – we’re facing one of the hardest schedules in quite awhile. To give you an idea of what I mean:
– 28 of the first 48 games are on the road. Of those 48 games
– we have a winning record last three against just one (Nats); and
– we have less than a .400 winning percentage against five of the sixteen series opponents.
– 14 of the first 17 series (April and May), and 22 of the first 29 series (to the break), are against teams that had a .500 or better record in 2008. Worse yet, 71% (37) of the 52 series we play this year are against teams that were .500 or better in 2008 (it was 52% in 2008).
– the Pirates median winning percentage across all 162 games, based on the last three years, is .405 (it was .402 overall in 2008 and .432 after the break).
– from May 22 when we enter interleague play thru the end of June, a total of 37 games, the Pirates are projected to win just 12, a .324 run.
Folks, it doesn’t get much uglier than that. But there is some good news too, by the end of the year things trend back to the mean and we’re projected to end up with a normal’ish 67-95 record.
Here’s the overall breakdown:
Note: the bottom four rows give you some sense of where things break out looking at the schedule a different way – based on a .465 winning percentage at home and .350 on the road which my research suggests we’ll be close to. Interestingly, both ways (unregressed historical win/loss records and expected winning percentage at home and on the road) showed almost exactly the same results. For those interested, when I regressed the historical three years using 50% for year one, 30% for year two, and 20% for year three the results were even a tick worse. And yes, some columns appear to add incorrectly but that’s because of rounding.
So if you answered the opening question by saying you would add free agents, you probably just spent unwisely because without adding a Manny Ramirez type of player, the end result of the acquisition would be negligible at best.
And so goes Neal Huntington.. he’s standing pat as he should. Even Ramon Vazquez was a mistake because he probably could have spent that $3MM toward a corner outfielder for one year instead of taking at bats away from Bixler and Walker who can handle the left side of the diamond like Vazquez does, albeit not as flashy. Plus, we all know we need more power – not more utility.
So it’s pretty easy to see what the Pirates 2010 slogan could be – ‘look how well our youth did at the end of 2009′ because we’re expected to play .424 baseball from the break to the end of the year vs. the first-half’s .393.
And if the first-half looks so dismal on paper, what possible reason can the Pirates extend for holding on to the likes of Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm, Ryan Doumit, and Adam LaRoche? Remember now, the Pirates have had the tentative 2009 schedule since September 2008.
Just clearing LaRoche, Wilson, Doumit, and Snell wipes at least $41MM off the books. If we assume Wilson and LaRoche are gone after 2009, and Snell and Doumit retained through 2011, that means we would lose about 8 wins in 2009, 4 wins in 2010, and 3 wins in 2011. That’s around 15 wins for $41MM or a cost of $2.7MM per win.
Considering those four players are part of the team’s core, that cost per win ratio doesn’t appear to be too bad. But on a 90+ loss club, $2.7MM per win in any combination is extremely inefficient. And even if you double Doumit and Snell’s projected contribution for 2010 and 2011, from seven wins to fourteen, and then add the four player’s total of eight wins for 2009 making the grand total twenty-two wins overall, that is still $1.9MM per win and still much too high for a rebuilding club.
In other words, just think what player development and scouting could do with just 20 of that $41 million. Right, probably hire away some extremely good scouting evaluators by paying them stupid money for the next three years, not to mention the dollars that could be spread all the way down the pipe to associate scouts.
That’s certainly one way to rebuild, but not the way we’re heading.
Instead, we’re bloated at the top with players who don’t want to be here, a few are being paid more than they are generally worth, and a couple who are taking playing time away from some youth we need to evaluate before they become minor league free agents like Wilson instead of Bixler or Cruz; and LaRoche instead of Pearce. I think Ronny Paulino fit in that case as well as a backup catcher but he was dealt for even less than we got for Torres last year.
I understand that in some cases like Pearce future value decisions appear pretty easy to make, but that’s not the point. We clearly need every advantage we can reap from the first year draft while rebuilding this ship and if we put ourself in a position to lose 100+ games to gain that advantage, so be it.
Obviously 2009 is a perfect year for that scenario considering our schedule.
Huntington needs to stand pat adding free agents as he has. Even adding a corner outfielder isn’t worth it on paper because those at bats could go to Neil Walker instead no matter how bad he would look learning the position. Just imagine.. could he potentially be our 4th OF in 2011? Or even Pearce could get ABs even as slow as he will be covering the ball in left.
I’ve said it before and I’m going to say it again, we’re not going anywhere. It’s nice we have developed a plan in the farm system, and it’s nice that Stark feels it’s starting to take root, but without more tools in that system, we’re spinning our wheels. We need to take more risk dealing our core players.
It’s way past the time this ship should have blown up and it’s a shame we’re going to lose a second year because we hired a front office that needed two years to get organized instead of hiring a GM who would have walked in the door with men in his pocket that knew what they were doing from day one.
The fans and the City deserve more.
(Update: the rational I used in this post became murky when I finally unveiled the Pirate blueprint later in the week. The wins chart above remains accurate, but why the Pirates aren’t dealing became more obvious in the blueprint post which you should read.)
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For those interested, here’s the 2008 schedule analysis and results:
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Thank you kindly to everyone who emailed about Corey. His fever broke and I’ve yet to see a rash develop but he’s finally eating good again so whatever it was must be passing.
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I saw where Dejan answered the question we first posed a week ago here about Huntington’s plans with Andrew McCutchen where he indicated he wasn’t going to jump start Cutch just because he’s the best option. Instead he’s going to wait for McCutchen to show he’s ready.
And that is exactly what we said needed to be said – let Cutch know immediately he’s not in the plan to head North regardless of what he does in the spring. That’s a positive step forward.
Now it’s up to McCutchen to head to spring training and use it as a springboard for his 2009 3A season and, if he works hard and overcomes the few remaining obstacles in his way, we very well might see him in September. Otherwise, probably not until September 2010.
Also another good note about Huntington’s plan for ST:
“The Pirates will invite fewer players to spring training, Huntington said, expressing regret about the 65 in camp last year, especially the 38 pitchers. “It was too many, and that’s my fault,” he said.”
A lot of players were upset about last year’s ST so it’s good Huntington got this right. But in the meantime, everyone is paying a price for him to learn on the job. Everyone. But as long as he finally puts his foot down one day after he finally gets it all figured out, it will be worth it.
Or so we all hope.
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