By Jake, on February 27, 2010, at 10:36 pm |
Eight days left in the Pledge Drive to keep the paywall down. You can read about it here and here. So far $428 has been pledged toward our $1,000 goal. Pledges can be made here.
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Traveling tonight so short post.
Q: I usually keep my hopes for the Pirates in check. I fully expect them to lose 100 games this year, if not their usual mid-90s. But I will be paying close attention to their minor- league clubs. .. Truthfully, I think its extremely difficult to build an entire team from within.
Bob Smizik: I think you have the right approach, Nate. Low expectations for this season but increasingly higher ones in the years ahead. The Pirates have placed their bets on the amateur draft. It’s not a perfect way to build a team but it seems the only way they can do it. ..
The picture Smizik paints above shows, imo, one of the main problems the fans have in proper evaluation of the current regime. Simply put, he’s content waiting for higher expectations in the years ahead as we build via the draft. No matter where you go to read about the Bucs and ‘the plan’ that’s the message you are hit with.
The problem with that mindset is that there is no accountability for the last two years. For instance, the Nutting family has refused to infuse any of their own cash since 2007 to prop up our draft position during a full rebuild that Bob Nutting said he is the co-architect of.
One way the Nuttings could have done that is by keeping Jason Bay through his contract years which would have resulted in two additional draft picks in 2010 from Bay walking out the door as a free agent. All things being equal, that would have provided us with the 36th and 57th picks in 2010 for an additional $10M or so paid to Bay.
Obviously that $10M infusion would have ultimately been reduced some from Bay’s market value (ie: suite sales, corporate sponsorships, ticket sales, etc, etc, etc) and then wiped out totally from future value received if just one of the two draft prospects contributed as expected – if the second one was a hit as well, then Nutting would have actually banked a considerable profit. That assumes, of course, that Greg Smith and Neal Huntington properly identified, selected, and signed two solid players.
And perhaps that’s exactly the issue – maybe the Nuttings didn’t trust Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington and his staff enough to ultimately bring them that future profit? Instead of risking those personal funds (which we now know would have been at least been covered from the profit they stated the organization made in 2008 and 2009), they instead chose to dump Bay’s salary off the books.
Now going back to Smizik’s assessment and fan perceptions.. are we really committed to rebuilding through the draft if we haven’t leveraged our draft position opportunities considering 12% of the 2009 Type A free agents (three in Gonzalez, Grabow, and Bay), and two of the Type B (Nady and LaRoche), had been under our control when the new regime took over? By my count, that’s a potential for three additional first round picks or no less than three additional second round picks, plus no less than three first round sandwich picks but could be as high as five.
Imagine that a second.. we could have had no less than eight selections before the 82cd pick overall this year and possibly as many as ten of the first 82. Now THAT’s rebuilding through the draft folks. And we could be supplementing that while rebuilding by bringing in ’better bets’ over the next few years in signing free agents with high Elias ranks and giving them stupid money one-year deals. We couldn’t lose because the value of free agent compensation far exceeds any stupid money paid out unless it’s $10M over true value received.
We’re not rebuilding by the draft – all we’re doing is spending as little as possible to get by.
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Iwamura is evidently not 100% yet. Not that we believe he ever will be during his stay with us, but that’s a story for another day.
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Hilariously posted at Pirateball.com as if mocking Pirates ownership.
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Joe Blanton will pitch against the Bucs in Bradenton when the Phillies come in March 6th. They aren’t wasting any time, although it will be interesting to see how many pitches Blanton actually throws. How ironic is it that Coonelly’s old buds send a right-handed soft tosser over to get lit up. Make sure you place your bets on that game.
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“I feel like the most complete player I’ve ever been. I feel like I can be a threat on both sides of the ball. I’m excited to see what I can do.” — Lastings Milledge as said to MLB.com
I, I, I, I, I, I.. well, at least the I’s have it.
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Nyjer Morgan, the good corporate guy – he learned fast in Pittsburgh. Now he’ saying in Washington that there’s a “vibe” in the clubhouse that he didn’t feel in 2009. You know, like we’re hearing about the Bucs in 2010, and we heard in 2009, and 2008, and 2007, and 2006, and..
You get the idea.
Now I wonder if that vibe he’s feeling is a good vibe, or a bad one because they only have three starters?
Ouch.
By Jake, on February 20, 2010, at 11:12 pm |
“Pirates could open with four-man rotation”
That was the headline at pirateball.com today. We’ll talk about that in a second but for now, the article continued:
“[I]f the club wants to keep its starters pitching every fifth day, the Pirates could use just a four-man rotation and have one spot start made during the first few weeks of the season. Doing so would give them the luxury of keeping 14 position players on the team to open the year.”
One spot start during the first few weeks is really, really stretching it in my mind, but to be fair, let’s take a look at the schedule over the first 25 games to May second.
First we have to make a wild assumption.. who will be the opening day starter at PNC and who will be the opening day starter away? The obvious choice to start game one against the Dodgers at PNC is Maholm based on his performance in 2009 and his stature with the club. Assuming that happens, I layed out the rest of the rotation just plugging in names to plug-in names. You’ll find those in the column labeled ‘Rotation’ below.
Then I plugged in my ‘first-look’ rotation schedule using Ohlendorf as the opening day guy at home and Maholm on the road in the column labled ‘Exp Rotation’ above. As you can see, unless our staff starts throwing every fourth day, which is highly improbable, we’ll need at least three starts by the fifth starter over the first month.
So carrying 14 position players is so way out there, I don’t even know how anyone could even dream it up.
Just a side note.. look at the series matchups closely and you’ll see two of our starters who pitch against the Dodgers in the first series, will end up throwing against them a few weeks later. In between, the same thing happens against the Brewers. Ouch, ouch, ouch, ouch.
Also notice that 16 of the first 25 games are on the road. We expect some of that knowing how cold it is in Pittsburgh, but man, 64% is unforgiving to a really young club. And these aren’t just parks on the road, mind you, but tough parks. Sure, we play the Astros tough on the road, but all of those stadiums are going to be jacked with 30k+ fans. Plus, other than the D’Backs, those are all potential .500 clubs we’re facing right out of the shoot. And going from Milwaukee to Dodger Stadium? Man, the schedule makers must want to see our kids crying or something.
Now that’s a brutal schedule which is obviously going to demand five starters the second time through the rotation.
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The Pirates were said to have approached Zach Duke about a multi-year deal last year but were rebuffed in their attempts. Over the winter, Neal Huntington fielded quite a few calls on Duke but was never able to put a deal together. One reason that didn’t get done I’m told is because Coonelly and Huntington didn’t accept that Duke’s true value only included reasonable arb value during the years they have him under control. That obviously wasn’t enough. They are said to approached Duke again this winter but, once again, it hasn’t gotten done.
Duke’s agent is Mark Pieper with SFX, the powerhouse agency that also happened to handle Tom Gorzelanny that Huntington called out in the press as being lazy, having no command, and not liking his attitude as he demoted him to the minors. You can be sure that didn’t go over well with SFX. And we’ve all seen Coonelly and the Pirates throw quite a few players out the door who are represented by high-powered agencies, and in the last two years of drafts they have made very few picks who were represented by those same bigger agencies.
To me it’s just another showing of their anti-labor stance; to you it might all be a coincidence.
Anyway, out of nowhere today Chuck Finder posted this in one of his blog posts:
“While discussing Zach Duke and his All-Star season that ended with a 2-7 finish and a second-half ERA of 5.17, Kerrigan mentioned as how he, Duke and the Pirates staff are taking a look at ways to alleviate this starter’s workload/fatigue. .. Kerrigan’s concern seemed to be focused on such questions as: whether to limit Duke’s side throwing, alter his other routines (he already worked out differently this past offseason), or simply remove him in the seventh, eighth or ninth innings — particularly early in the season — so he doesn’t tire later in the year. .. “[We] cut back his side throwing a lot in the second half of last year, to keep him strong, [Kerrigan said].”
Forget for a second that Duke was +62 innings from 2007 to 2008 and we have historically tracked the second-year-after effect here in the blog from too many innings of work causing fatigue and potential health problems the second year after this high inning workload. And also forget that Duke went another +28 innings from 2008 to 2009, albeit that’s a lot better managed but still of concern knowing Duke’s abuse 2007 to 2008. And forget too that this kid went through tweaks by three pitching coaches over three years. Hell, he deserved to be fatigued.
Problem is, the stats and PITCHf/x suggest he wasn’t fatigued. In fact, we all remember Russell skipping to the mound like a good corporate boy with two outs in the 9th inning with the Pirates up by 10 runs in Duke’s second to last start against the Dodgers where he was throwing a four-hitter only to pull him out so he couldn’t record a complete game. Remember now, management couldn’t afford that because they were ‘nursing him’ because of fatigue. Hilarious.
Now answer this question: what possible good does it do anybody for Kerrigan to put that ridiculous nonsense out in the wild for public consumption?
There’s only one possible answer to me – the Pirates are attempting to devalue Duke. Perhaps they are back talking a multi-year and want their way, perhaps they are just pissed off SFX and Duke won’t return their calls to get a multi-year done, or perhaps Duke won’t give them what they want which is sure to be one or two years of free agency?
But Kerrigan throwing out org PR in the press like that is yet another example of management’s anti-labor stance to me.
The entire planet knows why Duke’s ERA climbed in the second half – it was because Ryan Doumit was back pretending to be a catcher combined with the fact that Duke had the 14th worst pen support the game of the 126 pitchers with 100 innings or more last year (7th worst in the NL).
Not because of fatigue.
Now I’m far from a Zach Duke fan but I can’t stand it when I see our players get hammered in the press like this from this club’s management. It’s deceitful, it’s immature, and it continues to set us back with labor (current players, agents, the union, and also those in the future). More importantly to me as a fan, its disrespectful. Somethings should remain in the clubhouse.
I say Pieper and Duke need to get some balls and call out the Bucs management.
Huntington got calls on Duke over the winter but couldn’t put a deal together because they probably didn’t want to value him at only the arb years they have him under control for. Perhaps now the Bucs are going to offer him multi-year hoping to get a free agent year or two.. but if you’re Pieper and Duke, what are you going to say? Right, are you crazy after what you just did?
This stuff has to stop. Has to stop. Next thing you know we’ll be hearing this stuff about Morton, Ohlendorf, McCutchen, and others.. but the end result will always be the same with the way we’re playing the game — screw you.. you’re not getting one second of free agency unless you pony up big time for me to hang around.
And we’re supposed to believe he has the heart to withstand all this and then want to win for Russell and Kerrigan, much less Nutting? What a joke.
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I’ve wondered since the AS break last year if our management didn’t have a grand plan in this game. How ironic that Capps is then just allowed to walk away as if he was given a huge favor to leave or something? Sure, a coincidence but I’m telling you, it’s too weird.
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My intital reaction to Bloomberg’s new fantasy baseball product is that it’s a joke. They spent lots of time developing a wonderful flash product only to fill it with useless data. Heck, I plugged in the Pirates rotation and it spit out a 3.5 runs per game average while our hitters where banging out something like 4.5 runs per game. Yet in the end they had us losing 90.
Go figure that one out. Don’t waste your money.. maybe next year it will be better.
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From 1490’s news blog who are covering the Bucs ST better than anyone so far by only posting the Pirates press releases:
“Today was the second bullpen session for the following pitchers (Ross Ohlendorf, Paul Maholm, Kevin Hart, D.J. Carrasco, Jeff Karstens, Jack Taschner, Steven Jackson, Bryan Morris, Brad Lincoln, Donnie Veal, Chris Jakubauskas, Justin Thomas, Anthony Claggett and Virgil Vasquez). Those 14 pitchers threw between 40-45 pitches during their session.”
Wow. Can I buy stock in Doc Andrews surgery practice? Man.
Cedeno, McCutchen, and Milledge are still no shows.
By Jake, on February 19, 2010, at 7:20 pm |
I cringe every year when I hear our pitchers throwing more than 30 pitches in their first ST bullpens. Evidently this year is no exception:
“The following 16 pitchers threw a 35/40 pitch bullpen session: Zach Duke, Charlie Morton, Daniel McCutchen, Brian Burres, Brendan Donnelly, Javier Lopez, Octavio Dotel, Jeremy Powell, Evan Meek, Wil Ledezma, Vinnie Chulk, Brian Bass, Ronald Uviedo, Ramon Aguero, Jeff Sues, Jean Machi.”
What is more worrisome to me is that there are at least four players in that first group who have had recent health problems and a couple others who enter the year with major red flags.
Why do they need to throw so much so early? They don’t. We push our pitchers way too hard. Way too hard. Later in the year when some of these guys fall by the wayside we can point back to the first bullpens in the cold at ST and ask, I wonder if that had anything to do with it?
“Rehabbing pitchers Neal Cotts (60 pitches!!) and Jimmy Barthmaier (30 pitches) threw off a mound in the bullpen. ”
Ouch.
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No brainer in this AP announcement:
“Just two days into spring training, the Pittsburgh Pirates might already have settled one of their position battles. … In discussing his pitching corps, manager John Russell mentioned Hart as one of the starters and McCutchen among the bullpen crew. But when pressed, Russell stopped short of confirming Hart has won the job.” — AP News
But this one is a bit puzzling:
“NOTES: OF Ryan Church checked into camp on Friday. Only seven position players — including Andrew McCutchen, Lastings Milledge, Delwyn Young and Ronny Cedeno — have not yet been spotted at Pirate City. The first full-squad workout is Tuesday.” — emphasis by Jake
Nice to see the ‘team’ mentality shaping up early (the list includes Ronny Cedeno, Argenis Diaz, Delwyn Young, Gorkys Hernandez, Andrew McCutchen, Lastings Milledge and Jonathan Van Every).
Other than pitchers and catchers who had to show up, plus Tabata and Alvarez, that appears to be all the remaining Black and Spanish players on the 40-man roster.
Hmm.. a collective message perhaps?
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Speaking about Jose Tabata, one of my least favorite media writers occasionally writing about this club, Rob Neyer, actually posted something of value about the Bucs today:
“Considering that the Pirates can’t win without young players both cheap and good, and that Tabata was supposedly one of the youngest and the best of their young players, the notion [by Neal Huntington] that Tabata’s age doesn’t matter just isn’t supportable. What the Pirates are trying to do, can be done. But the margin for error is exceptionally small. And trading for a 20-year-old who’s actually 23 — if that’s what the Pirates did in 2008 — was an error.”
Hell, this kid might be 26 or 28 for all we know. But at the end of the day, I don’t think it will really matter.
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I’ve posted daily college baseball scores under the “NEWS” navigation tab above.
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If you can’t sell tickets to a crappy show, how do you make more money from those who do buy? Right, give them booze.. lots of booze, and charge them a ton for easy access to it.
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E-mails went out to all the folks who stated they wanted to play in our fantasy baseball league so check your inbox. If you didn’t receive it for some reason, leave a comment below.
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Kevin Goldstein at BP released his top 10 Pirates list today and, once again, he showed why he really isn’t dialed-in to the Bucs very well. He has a tendency to select players who management appear to be pushing instead of players who have tools as evidenced with his Tony Sanchez selection as the Bucs second best prospect.
Here’s his list:
Five-Star Prospects
1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B
Four-Star Prospects
2. Tony Sanchez, C, 3. Jose Tabata, OF
Three-Star Prospects
4. Starling Marte, OF, 5. Chase D’Arnaud, SS, 6. Brad Lincoln, RHP, 7. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, 8. Colton Cain, LHP, 9. Rudy Owens, LHP, 10. Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
11. Victor Black, RHP
Tony Sanchez is a “four-star prospect” about like Steve Pearce was in 2008. Puh-lease.
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Dave Matthews Band, PNC Park Pittsburgh PA, Saturday, July 10, 2010. Pre-sales password=CRASH (ebucs is said to be another).
Somewhere Bryan Minitti is smiling.
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Holy Moly.. Sports Network dot org has the Pirates losing 105!!
* Jake smiles *
By Jake, on February 1, 2010, at 9:06 pm |
One of the most bizarre statements of the winter that I heard came from one Pirates exec when he said something to the effect of:
Our young players tasted success in the second half that we believe will serve to be their catalyst in 2010.
The ‘taste’ the exec was talking about was the August 17th – 27th homestand where we ran off a 7-2 spurt by pounding out 5 runs per game while holding the Reds, Phillies, and Brewers to under 3 runs per game. Unquestionably, it was the roster’s finest hour over a very poor season.
I’ve talked numerous times this winter about the internal debate on Federal Street regarding this very issue – some believe they have enough pitching to compete even with below average offense. But how realistic is that thinking?
No matter what side of that argument you stand on, the fact remains that our roster limped down the stretch in their last 2300 at bats. Simply put, it’s hard to win games when you can’t crack .700 OPS over an extended period of time. I think the last 36 games is a good example of how this roster will play in 2010 before Alvarez comes up.. they went 9-27 (.300) and were outscored by 2.1 runs per game on average.
Remarkably, they went 3-3 in their last road trip despite being outscored by almost a 1/2 run per game. The Pirates execs might argue they generated luck because of good pitching (sub 4 ERA) and that’s what they hope to accomplish in 2010. I’d argue that we won the doubleheader in Chicago playing in low 50’s, high 40’s weather with wind blowing off the lake, and then got our butts kicked two of three by a mentally defeated Reds squad. It wasn’t a pretty end of the season by any stretch of the imagination and, if anything, we had the wind knocked out of our sails when we couldn’t muster but 2 runs per game against the Dodgers and Astros September 11th – 16th while our pitching posted a sub 4 ERA.
Look closely at those batting averages from July 23rd on — that’s about as ugly as it gets folks with four of the nine groups (24 games) at .225 or less and ERA’s above 5 in five of the nine groups.
How realistic is it to think we have enough pitching to contend with the less-than-impact bats we have? Should we expect 5 runs per game in offense? I think that’s possible, but certainly unsustainable. So let’s assume 4 runs per game is more probable with 3.5 runs average per game most likely. What will be required of our pitching to keep us close every game at 3.5 runs produced on offense? For every 100 games (810 innings pitched) where we allow only 3.5 runs per game on average would require a collective ERA of 3.78 ERA just to keep the opposition at 3.5.
Do you know how improbable it is for a pitching staff to throw a collective 3.78 ERA across 160 games anymore? It’s happened just 12 times since the 2005 season led by such incredible staffs like the Padres with Young and Peavy, the Red Sox in Beckett and Schilling, the Blue Jays with Halladay and Burnett, the Dodgers in Lowe, Kershaw, Wolf, and Billingsley, and the Giants with Lincecum and Cain. I’m sorry to say we don’t have one pitcher – in Pittsburgh or in our minor league system – who resembles any of those men. Not even close.
So something has to give.. either we have to score more than 3.5 runs per game on average or we’re going to lose an obscene number of games again in 2010. Which will it be?
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I’m very, very bummed out about the upcoming year. I realize it’s yet another development year in Pittsburgh, and I realize the fans think they have a possibility of seeing 70+ wins, but I’m here to tell you I can’t get any model run to come out with more than 62 wins. Where PECOTA is finding the other 8 wins is beyond me because this is a 100 loss team no matter how aggressive you get with Alvarez, Clement, and Morton. (Update at 11:08 PM Monday.. PECOTA projection remains at 70 wins despite the fact they just shaved 83 runs scored off from the initial projection. Oh, and they also shaved 80 runs off runs allowed for some reason plus the Cards score the most runs in the division at only 724! Unbelievable stuff.)
We have too little power, a significantly unbalanced defense, and rookies waiting in the wings to add more unstableness. Hammer me all you want but it’s just not going to be a pretty year.
Except for laying down a few bucks on our Bucs, that is. I think Vegas and the rest of the world are going to be fooled by our roster this year leaving a wide open door for some outrageous opportunities for fans like us to make a small fortune from side bets.
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Preliminary Sleepers and Foolers for 2010
Sleepers
Dotel – think Mike Gonzalez on steriods and that’s how much fun Dotel is going to have.
Crosby — someone is going to have to step up and take charge in the Bucs inexperienced infield and Crosby is just the guy to handle the job. Look for a breakout type year from him as a utility man who plays too much.
Veal — the guy nobody believed in goes to 3A and uncoils a ridiculous sub 2 ERA in his first 10 starts and then comes up to Pittsburgh to replace Duke and ends up winning more games than any starter.
Doumit – he smells his exit from Pittsburgh and runs off a .320/.385/.490 line in his first 50 games and is then dealt to the Rangers. If he isn’t dealt, he’ll be on the DL the rest of the year.
McCutchen - April and early May won’t be his best months but by mid-August will be causing a ticket selling frenzy everywhere he plays. It’s the year of the Cutch.
Foolers
LaRoche - he knows if he tanks early he’s going to be dealt away from the land of suits and misery.
Duke – how do you spell ERA above 9?
Jones – he just can’t get around high and tight heat and the league finally adjusts.
Milledge - will he last 40 games before going on the DL? I don’t think so.
Ohlendorf – his head is still in Washington dreaming about all the heifers he met.
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A very special interview with a very special person, he says. Almost has a Pee Wee Herman ring to it, huh? Man I miss Joe Rutter. If you want to skip the interview I’ll give you a quick transcript of what was said that was meaningful:
nothing
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The Reds signed Orlando Cabrera for $4M. Wow. That’s a deal that will come back to haunt the Bucs. Mark it down.
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I forgot to mention that the other day I saw where Huntington was talking about competing and mentioned the 2012 – 2013 seasons. That’s typical for a GM to talk one year further out than he is inked for so I suspect we’re about to see him get a two-year extension.
By Jake, on January 30, 2010, at 9:45 pm |
According to sources on the Penguins side, the meeting happened four months ago at the Penguins’ front-office headquarters in Chatham Center, Uptown. Mr. Lemieux, Mr. Burkle and Mr. Nutting were present, and the intent of the meeting was for the Penguins owners to offer to buy the Pirates. Mr. Burkle made a financial offer. — Post-Gazette; January 30, 2010.
I’m proud to say I broke this story a month ago – I just couldn’t list the buyer to protect my source. Dejan expanded on the news by listing the buyers as well as putting the timeframe together, so kudos to him. That being said, I was told no offer was ever presented to Bob Nutting contrary to Dejan’s report.. simply talking about wanting to buy the team will never get it done.. talk is cheap.
I will tell you that there is a group of extremely powerful individuals who have made themselves available to any group wanting to buy the Pirates. Lemieux and Burkle’s camp were only recently made aware of this group so they did not have the benefit of their help when they talked with Nutting the first time. Whether or not they are serious enough in this endeavor to bring these folks into their camp remains to be seen.
Coonelly reiterated: “What I can tell you: Bob is not interested in selling the team; the team is not for sale. Bob is committed to bringing a championship back to Pittsburgh.”
First of all, Bob is Ogden’s son.. ’nuff said there. And second of all, anybody who believes for one second Bob Nutting gives a rats ass about bringing a championship back to Pittsburgh needs their head examined, imo. I think it’s fair to say the only competitive spirit the Nutting’s have shown the fans since 2003 is in the miser column, not the win column. They have had numerous opportunities to reinvest back into the on-field product starting with keeping Aramis Ramirez and they have shot blanks at every turn.
You don’t take people like the Nuttings out by talking to them. Instead, you make them want to run. One way that could get accomplished is by cutting off their cash cow. In that regard, I’m aware that a group wants/wanted to put up billboards all over town this season with a message something to the effect of don’t buy tickets, and another group has their eye on staging protests for the same purpose. I’d bet there are others I don’t even know about.
I said this the other day, the fan base is one collective pissed off group but, for now, they don’t have enough leadership to bring the Nuttings to their knees. Someone with a household name needs to take the bull by the horns and until that happens, the Nuttings will continue to sit comfortable.
Personally, I don’t think the remaining fans are at the tipping point yet. The players in the system seem to be, but the fans aren’t. If the Bucs lose another 90 games in 2010 with Alvarez, Clement, and Doumit around, that might put the fans over the top. I’m betting Coonelly knows that too so don’t be surprised if you see a series of mid-season moves that might seem a bit shocking if the club is heading towards 90 losses. Their goal will be to try, one last time, to build a hope fire under the fans, as well as to keep the union off their back.
At some point the fans will finally wake up. They always do. I just hope to see it before the Nutting’s slither away.
I’ll be back Monday night.
By Jake, on January 21, 2010, at 12:19 am |
“And this is why I write, time and again, that the true test of this ownership is.. [when] those players are ready for arbitration years and beyond.. that is when it will be transparent to all whether or not there is a genuine financial commitment to back up the promise.” — Dejan Kovacevic; Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, January 20, 2010. emphasis New Bucs
Dejan does an ok job covering the Pirates but, I have to tell you, I really cringe seeing any beat reporter write comments like that — even as a blog entry — because it smacks of no objectivity. I mean, those are the words of the man who is granted a media license by the Pirates allowing him to cover the team from the inside that the fans demand objectivity from all year round. So when I read his words — online or in print — I am expecting that he is covering the news of the Pirates.
Not creating news (ie: his “true test” fuzzy logic).
Now it’s your turn: at what point do sports writers cross the ethical divide? Or can they?
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Duke signed for $4.3M avoiding arbitration. Obviously he’s worth every penny of that as a solid MLB #4 type starter in our rotation. Will we, should we, see Neal Huntington approach Duke with a long-term offer? I think they waited too long for it to matter now. I’m guessing Huntington and Coonelly entered 2009 thinking Duke would regress back to 2007 type numbers and planning to offer him a long-term deal after the season.
If so, that backfired on them as Duke’s numbers improved across the board.
What would he command? If the Pirates wanted to buy out one arb year and two free agent years, I’m thinking they would value him around 1.75 WAR per year. That would be $22M over three, less the 35% third-year arb discount of $2.5M, and that leaves $19.5M over three distributed something like this: $5.5M in 2011, $6.5M in 2012, and $7.5M in 2012 (at age 30).
Would Duke sign that deal? Probably not. He’s going to want in the neighborhood of $25M – or more – over those three years and his agent is probably sitting back reading all the negative revenue sharing news and licking his chops even more. Plus, his agent is reading Pirate Nation media coverage like I posted above from Dejan knowing full good and well that the new regime has to start being held accountable at some point, and they probably believe Duke is that point. Do the Nuttings pony up for one of the organizations draft and developed players, or trade him off to reduce future costs in the name of getting younger?
On the flip side, I sit back and realize that Zach Duke’s name isn’t on my roster when we finally compete so it behoves Huntington to deal him for some youth while he still holds some value over contract. Huntington probably believes it’s best to wait out the first part of 2010 and see how things go before dealing him, but I think that’s a mistake.. we should have dealt him this winter at the latest. We’ll see what happens in the next 6 months.. a long-term contract or trade. Or nothing.
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Dotel inked. I went back and watched some film on him and walked away concerned that he tends to leave batters in the box too long, tends to be too repetitive in his pitch selection, and tends to throw upstairs too much.
For instance, reviewing PITCHf/x material on him shows he’s one of the few pitchers in the game who will almost always throw a fastball when behind in the count. Not 75% of the time, not 85% of the time, I’m talking like almost every single pitch. To his credit, he has enough movement on it that he doesn’t get hit hard which should play fine at PNC, but I wonder if that will be the case in some of the smaller NLCD parks? The same is true of pitching upstairs because we have some pretty solid hitters in this division who crush that pitch.
He’s a straight fastball-slider guy who tosses a occaisonal changeup to left hand hitters and curve to righties. The fact he has two more pitches than Capps says it all; throw in movement on his fastball and he’s going to be an exciting difference over Capps. But it all comes down to money.. at $3M I’ll love it, at $4M I’ll still be happy but he better not waver. At $5M I’ll be laughing like hell because this roster doesn’t deserve a $5M closer.
That is, unless David Roderick’s internal division theory is correct – internally some believe we have enough pitching to contend despite having a below average offensive machine.
Do we? I think we’re about to see when Dotel’s contract amount is revealed.
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I want you to know that I placed my “Neil Walker possibly being traded” source into the unreliable drawer today on the advice of someone who intimately knows the source. I’m sorry to have led you astray. As for any other place that has suggested a Walker trade, I’m 100% positive it didn’t come from my source so they either got the idea here, or have their own source.
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Doug Davis back with the Brewers, huh? What a strange addition.
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Some are wondering if the Pirates are getting serious about Ben Sheets? My answer would be no since we sent an amateur scout to watch him instead of a pro scout.
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thcBA, thcERA, and thcOPS are new sabermetric stats that were copyrighted today by Kief Ganja. Interestingly, when you see the ”+” sign behind one of them like “thcERA+” it doesn’t mean park or league adjusted – it means known user.
Confused? Then that’s probably a good thing. For those that know exactly where this is going, I assume you were the ones called by ABC News in their recent poll. You see, 81% of those contacted:
“.. support legalizing marijuana for medical use and nearly half favor decriminalizing the drug more generally, both far higher than a decade ago.”
Dude, like, at least I’ll be able to laugh watching my 90+ loss team year-after-year-after-year-after-year-after..
By Jake, on January 18, 2010, at 11:33 pm |
One down, three or four to go. Michael Weiner, in his first venture as head of the players union, successfully wrestled the Florida Marlins to baseball’s financial mat and is prepared to take on similarly recalcitrant revenue-sharing rogues. …
Bob Nutting, the Pirates’ managing partner, has been especially criticized by other owners for not spending the money to improve his team, which is on a record 17-year streak of losing seasons. …
“The Pirates, Marlins and Rays are spending nothing on payroll and showing operating profits of $20, $25 million, which goes into the owners’ pockets,” one executive said. …
The combined pressure exerted by Henry, other owners and the union was too much for the commissioner’s office to ignore. When Selig and Manfred don’t let a dispute get to a grievance, a management person said, “you know it’s serious. They made the Marlins accept it.”
Now the Pirates are on deck. There’s no more deserving team to bat next.
That came from an article posted today by Hall of Fame writer Murray Chass. Obviously Chass believes, as we found out yesterday Bill Madden believes, that the Pirates are a future target by some owners and the union.
Indeed.
Unfortunately after digging deep into MLB’s ownership circles Sunday, I came away with the feeling Bob and Ogden Nutting are pretty safe. That’s not to say there isn’t trouble in paradise surrounding the Nutting empire, just that the Pirate Nation isn’t likely to see them cornered by other owners between now and the new CBA talks. If ever.
You can probably thank the Nuttings impeccable strategy timing the transition of power from McClatchy for that.
Remember how McClatchy went public in 2006 stating he wanted Nutting more involved in the organization but Nutting only took baby steps that year, then took the entire 2007 season to “evaluate” his system before implementing change? That one and one-half year stall/delay seems to have perfectly positioned the Nuttings outside the crosshairs of the owners and union.
The Commissioner’s office implemented a yearly recommended minimum payroll threshold several years ago which several teams have failed to meet (the Pirates are one of the clubs that have never met it, I’m told). Not meeting that minimum has drawn the ire of the player’s union especially since quality players have either been forced out of work or had to settle for significant reductions in pay the last couple of years because of the reduced market and demand.
On one hand we have the Commissioner with a recommended salary floor the Pirates didn’t meet, on the other we have the union screaming for more demand for their product, and on the side sit a few well-heeled owners who are fit to be tied that a few owners seem to be taking their ‘charity’ for a Sunday ride and thereby devaluing the MLB brand and their financial position along the way.
Simply put, its greed vs greed vs greed where the ultimate loser will always be fans like you and I who have to bet on the longshot to win.
Last thoughts — I think an important part to the “why aren’t the Pirates being told to spend more” equation is to remember that this organization has a debt load of over $100M which grew in 2009. I questioned that figure years ago as fictional accounting because I felt it was primarily funds they would have to reimburse the state for the building of PNC and accrued interest from two loans they took on, neither of which they would have to repay unless the franchise is relocated before 2030.
Ironically, the first $20M URA loan made in 1985, and the $11.5M subsequent loan handed to the organization when McClatchy begged the city to renegotiate the terms of the first note, were both taxpayer subsidies which are being slowly written off by the city for years now. See this post for more coverage on the subject. I assume the Pirates would have to write those off their debt load too but yet they get seemingly replaced by Nutting limited partner and McClatchy buyout stock purchases made the last few years along with a few other capital expenditures.
In other words, if the owners want to play hardball and come after the Nuttings for perceived creative accounting, then all they are doing is opening a can of worms because every club is probably doing the same thing. That will never happen. The books say the Pirates have $100M+ in debt and every owner will tell you that they want one of their own to have the ability to pay down that debt with the spread the wealth formula they have in place.
So put any “Nutting gets hammered by the union” fantasies aside because they are unrealistic at this point. If you want to blame someone for that, you can blame the Nuttings for refusing to infuse deep pocket partners or refusing to sell because neither has happened despite valid attempts.
Will the new CBA negotiations offer Pirates fans any hope? I’m certainly not counting on any.
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“For us to compete in the market size we’re in, we have to do some things like this from time to time — a bold move.” — [Reds GM Walt] Jocketty on the Chapman signing
That quote is from Phil Rogers’ Sunday column in the Chicago Tribune. It was a brilliant risk in my book, one we should have taken, especially considering the deferred money payout. Unfortunately, another smaller market organization in the same division did.
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We ended Brian Bixler’s misery today by tossing him over to Neal Huntington’s ex-boss so we could clear roster space. That’s not the trade I heard about so you might see another deal here shortly outside the rumor below.
One thing I need to tell you is that Neal Huntington has taken extreme measures to quiet circuit gossip about his moves. And I do mean extreme. Bluntly put, he has made it well-known he won’t tolerate leaks anymore and he’s gone to great lengths to surround himself with old school men who don’t talk about their organization to even their best friends. Period, end of story.
However, he still has some holes in his armour plus he can’t control what happens after he talks to other clubs, so things leak out. But the waterfall of rumors all media around this club enjoyed the last five-plus years is quickly drying up, so when a rumor comes our way we’ll have to be a bit more careful not to expose our source.
Now for a juicy rumor.. is Doumit close to being dealt? I ‘tink so and I also ‘tink we’re close to signing another catcher. Now let’s see if it gets done.
By Jake, on January 12, 2010, at 11:26 pm |
Dejan at the Post-Gazette noted in his coverage of the Ryan Church signing that the Pirates felt by adding him they were protecting against Clement faltering. But the more I thought about this move, the more I believe they are more concerned about Garrett Jones faltering, not Jeff Clement.
Think about it a second.. nobody expects Clement to come to Pittsburgh wailing the ball – he’s going to need time to settle in just like McCutchen or anybody else who comes up needs. So if that’s the case, then the only legitimate worry the Pirates could have about Clement is his glove. But that’s not realistic because we know Clement is very athletic and we also know Clement was solid enough with his glove at 1B last year in 3A to ring up a very respectable .991 FPCT over 232 chances. I’m not suggesting he’s a future Gold Glove candidate, but he’s certainly not a disaster in the waiting either.
Jeff Clement at age 26 is the Pirates future just as much as Pedro Alvarez is. Alvarez will remain at third until he is embarrassing himself or the organization and Clement will remain at first and be the team’s emergency catcher, best I can tell.
That leaves Jones. Clement will spend the first 31 days in 3A so his major league clock doesn’t click off an entire year in 2010 leaving a Jones/Bobby Crosby tandem manning first until Clement arrives. So Huntington will be forced to use Church in right to start the year where matchups favor him playing and shifting Jones out there when they don’t. Or, perhaps Jones gets dealt between now and March and Crosby and Pearce play first?
When Clement comes up, Jones shifts to right field filling in until Tabata comes up in June. Clement’s arrival and Jones being asked to return to right despite Clement playing at three-quarters of Jones natural defensive ability will finally ring the bell in Jones head that he’s the odd man out as soon as Tabata arrives. In the meantime, don’t forget the rumor we heard about Kerrigan preferring Doumit be dethroned as the everyday catcher so it’s likely we’re going to see Doumit play some right field once Clement comes up since he’ll be a third catcher too.
Obviously all this assumes Jones was a one-year wonder and isn’t on fire. If he is, then Huntington simply leaves Tabata down a tick longer, unless Clement at first is embarrassing the club, and then Huntington pats himself on the back while dealing Jones in June or July to a contender needing a right side corner utility guy with some pop.
And that’s where Church comes into our picture. When we open the year and face tougher southpaws, Church sits and Jones plays right with Crosby at first. All the rest of the time, Church starts in right with Jones at first until Clement arrives. While Church is ringing up fairly consistent at bats, Huntington will be praying Tabata has become a monster waiting to be unleashed from his minor league cage. Assuming he is, Church goes to the bench and becomes our Sunday outfielder or is dealt in July, while Tabata rings up the AB in right.
So your opening day outfield will be Milledge, McCutchen, and Church assuming we don’t face Kershaw, Jones at first, Aki, Cedeno, and LaRoche, with Doumit catching. Backup outfielders will be Raynor as the Rule 5 guy and Moss or Van Every, backup infielders Crosby and either Walker so Doumit could be moved out from behind the plate some or Vazquez, and Jaramillo catching. That’s 12. If we go with 13, throw in both Vazquez and Walker.
All that means Moss, Bixler, Walker, Vazquez, and Young will all be put on the wire, DFA’d, or dealt, depending on who will be on the bench. Those who aren’t gobbled up off the wire will be assigned to the minors.
That’s my guess. So I don’t agree with Dejan’s premise that Clement isn’t seen as a lock. I believe he’s saying that because he doesn’t believe Jones could possibly be the odd man out. In my book, Clement is cemented in our future just as much as McCutchen, Tabata, and Alvarez are and Jones is expendable.
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Now how do I feel about the Church signing considering the above? I don’t like it. We spent $1.5M+ for a three-month rental where what we could have done is targeted Winn to play all year while forcing Tabata to decide if he really wants to play baseball. In other words, make Tabata a September call up at the earliest if he makes it through the year without trouble knowing he would suffer mentally a tick because he feels he is ready, but that’s my point. Assuming Winn wants about $4M at 450 AB, I think spending the extra cash would have been a no-brainer.
That being said, since we paid fair value for Church’s services and because of the way Huntington is playing his short-term plan, Church is just as good as anyone else and probably gets Bob Nutting a few more tickets sold than Winn in his mid-thirties might. We lost some defensive runs saved with Church over Winn, we lost Winn’s switch-hitting capability and better splits, we lost Winn’s ability to be able to play all three outfield positions, and we lost Winn’s top of the order type of bat. I mean, we got what we paid for in Church and Huntington just didn’t believe we needed more.
The other factor is, we have a front office with stars in their eyes looking at 2011 so in their mind they can’t possibly afford to hold back Tabata - he needs to be in Pittsburgh as soon as the super-two threat is gone. So he comes up come hell or high water and that’s a shame because in my book Tabata needs another year of development, if only as a character check.
Oh well, let’s wait and see if Church can pass what typically seems to be an extremely limited Pirates medical review.
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STATEMENT FROM MLBPA, FLORIDA MARLINS AND MLB REGARDING MARLINS’ COMPLIANCE WITH REVENUE SHARING PROVISIONS OF THE BASIC AGREEMENT
The following joint statement was issued today by the Major League Baseball Players Association, the Office of the Commissioner of Baseball and the Florida Marlins:
The Basic Agreement requires that each Club use its revenue sharing receipts in an effort to improve its performance on the field. This requirement is of obvious importance to all players, Clubs and fans of the game. In recent years, the Union has had concerns that certain Clubs have not lived up to this requirement, and has consulted regularly with the Commissioner’s Office about those concerns. The Florida Marlins are one of a number of Clubs that have been discussed.
After extensive discussions, the three parties are pleased to announce that they have reached an agreement regarding the Florida Marlins’ continued compliance with Article XXIV(B)(5)(a) of the Basic Agreement.
I’m guessing when we heard Boras and Red Sox owner Henry speak out about some of the owners taking advantage of the revenue sharing system, they did so knowing that this item was on the agenda at the annual owners meeting and that an agreement had been reached to make the Marlins the scapegoats. Bob Nutting may have avoided being in this initial release because the club came out with some of their financial records for public consumption, although it went over the head of most Pirates fans and the local media wasn’t about to challenge the Pirates any further.
Make no mistake about the intent of the union – they sent a warning shot across the bows of all the clubs they feel are not in compliance and the fact MLB supported the release is clear indication that Selig’s office is at least partial agreement with them. While the Pirates aren’t listed, there can be no doubt that the Pirates are one of the clubs that have been discussed and while they may not have been an immediate target, they absolutely have to be in the cross hairs of the union. Boras made that very clear.
Bottom line? It’s pure BS to me.
The game is too flush right now for any significant challenges to be implemented in the new bargaining agreement so forget that. And as I said the other day, one source close to MLB told me straight out not to expect central intervention (MLB) regarding our plight. It simply isn’t going to happen. As for the union? They aren’t going to step in either. I suppose we’ll see a couple of insignificant additions with vague language added to the next CBA and little else.
It was fun to read all the same as it threw a penny’s worth of hope our way, but you just spend that reading all this. Plus I wonder if the Marlins wanted/needed that released because their new stadium costs have risen and they needed to prove to the city they couldn’t use some of their income to offset them. But that’s a wild guess.
All the same the release just smelled fishy. Git. My. Drift?
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It was interesting to see Dejan’s list of minor league position players that showed up for mini-camp. One of the names was Robbie Grossman which tells me he’s most likely rehabbing some injury. I don’t recall him ending the year with any problems but maybe I missed something? Fill me in if you know what he broke during the last part of the year. Jared Cunningham and Shelby Ford are listed but we knew about their injuries.
And did you notice that Dejan mentioned that the pitchers would be throwing fastballs, changes and curves? Excuse me but that seems like quite a departure from previous years where they weren’t allowed to put pressure on their shoulder and elbow until late February/early March. It will be interesting to see if any of these pitchers end up with some elbow or shoulder problems this year.
Colton Cain and Brooks Pounders were the only heralded high school arms from the draft last year that seemed to make the trip. I’m not sure I understand the significance of that just yet.
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What the hell is going on over at WPGB? And is Rocco in or out – anybody know? What a mess.
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CY YOUNG AWARD WINNER DOUG DRABEK HEADLINES CURVE’S SPRING TRAINING FESTIVAL
Owens, d’Arnaud and Bonifay Join Former Pirates’ Ace on Guest List
ALTOONA, Pa – The Altoona Curve announced on Tuesday a new format for their off-season charitable event
and disclosed the details which include autograph sessions headlined by former Pirates’ pitching ace and 1990 CyYoung award winner, Doug Drabek.
For the past nine years, the Curve have held the Hot Stove Dinner and Auction with a similar format and program. While the event was successful in raising tens of thousands of dollars for local charities during its run, the franchise has decided to change the model and make it even more inclusive – especially for families.
On Saturday, February 6, the Altoona Curve will hold their first-ever Spring Training Festival with a daytime
event at the Logan Valley Mall and a dinner at the Ramada’s Tropical Courtyard Restaurant. Proceeds of the two-pronged event will benefit the Altoona Regional Health System Foundation for Life. WTAJ-TV and Forever Broadcasting are media sponsors of the event. In addition, Fiore True Value Just Ask Rental will be an in-kind sponsor of several attractions at the festival.
The Festival will begin at 1 p.m. on the second level of the Logan Valley Mall near the food court and include a two-hour (2:00 – 4:00 p.m.) autograph session with photo opportunities. Drabek, who was the anchor of a Pirates’ pitching staff that helped the club to three-straight National League East Division Titles from 1990-92, will be the featured guest. Additional guests will include 2009 Pirates’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year Rudy Owens, infielder Chase d’Arnaud, and the Curve’s all-time leader in home runs and runs batted in, Josh Bonifay. Both Owens and d’Arnaud are likely to play for the Curve during the upcoming 2010 season.
Tickets for the event can be purchased in advance for just $10 and will cost $12 on the day of the event.
(read the complete release)
(Photo of Rudy Owens courtesy of the Altoona Curve)
By Jake, on January 3, 2010, at 11:21 pm |
I think I’ve been fairly patient as a fan with the Pittsburgh Pirates ownership group the last few years. I rallied behind the organization during the yellow t-shirt protests in 2006 because I felt the timing of the protest was wrong, I rallied behind the organization again in 2007 when yellow t-shirts gave way to key lime pie colored shirts in protest because they were unorganized and going to do more harm than good, and this winter I shot holes in another fan protest that was gathering steam.. again in the name of the organization.
Lately as I look across the Pirate Nation I see a mostly unhappy group who seem to be content that the ‘new regime’ are ‘doing the right things’.. ‘making decisions and sticking with them’.. ‘on the right track’.. ‘rebuilding the core foundation’.. etc, etc, etc.. and so I have purposely kept my whimpering low-key praying things were going to be different. After all, Frank Coonelly was saying all the right things even though in my heart I felt we weren’t accomplishing much (see my blog posts the last two years).
Then today I pick up the Tribune-Review and read Rob Biertempfel’s article on the Pirates spending and found this buried nugget:
“According to data provided by the team, the Pirates since 2007 have spent more than $11 million on long-term capital improvements. The club also boosted scouting, the draft and international player signings by more than $10 million.
According to Coonelly, the Pirates have poured their operating profits back into the club and also “had to borrow very modestly,” which added to the team’s $100 million debt.” (emphasis New Bucs)
Remember all those years ownership fed us “financial flexibility” stories while turning a “modest” annual profit by fielding a near worthless product? Are we now supposed to believe that those funds vanished into thin air since ownership has made it clear for the last decade they don’t take dividends?
So where did the money go?
And according to Biertempfel, they just added even more debt to the $100M they already had. How could that possibly be? If the franchise is worth around $275M, thats a preposterous 36% debt load fifteen years after purchasing the franchise for $61M ($90M price tag minus the $29M owed to the URA they didn’t have to pay).
And the Pirate Nation believes we’re headed in the right direction!?! I’m sorry but it’s inconceivable to me that ownership will ever be in a financial position to be able to field a competitive club, and that’s putting it nicely.
I was so desperate to believe in a rebuilding process that I put blinders on the last few years hoping upon hope things would get better, but I have just taken them off since the Nuttings seem hell-bent on their own mission. Bob Nutting, you win the Con Man of the Decade award in my book for allowing the fans to be fleeced as COB.
It looks like we need to start a nerdy mission of our own.
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Update Monday January 4, 2010:
Andrew Zimbalist, Robert A. Woods Professor of Economics at Smith College who was recently hired by Major League Baseball as a consultant, just passed this note to me:
Jake, I am not sure how they could be adding to debt in last couple of years. It doesn’t compute for me either, unless they are making substantial new investments in the ballpark.
As Erik first noted in the comments below and Dr. Zimbalist suggests, the added debt was most likely from long-term capital investments like the Latin academy. Dejan actually broke the story first on December 7th when he said this in his article:
Coonelly.. [said] last week that the Pirates put all their profit in that span toward $11 million in baseball-related capital investments and, even then, needed to incur additional debt to cover the rest of the amount.
Those capital investments included a $5.4 million baseball academy in the Dominican Republic, $2 million toward the renovation of the Pirate City complex in Bradenton, Fla., and the recent purchase of a new Class A affiliate to play in Bradenton. (Note by Jake – we later learned from Dejan that the price to purchase the Bradenton club was $3M).
Now follow along.. they had $10.4M in capital investments and less than $11M in profits. Seems to me they pretty much wipe each other out.
So why borrow?
This isn’t making one bit of sense to anybody I ask and I finally see why Dejan was so excited over his December 7th article.
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