(Edited on March 8, 2009, to show how ridiculously high the Maholm contract really is.)
I’m starting to seriously wonder if the Pirates new regime has a long-term plan in place. The short-term one is easy to see - sign any first-year arbitration eligible player of value to a three year contract. Beyond that, everything else is fuzzy. Let me show you what I mean.
The chart below is a crude attempt to extract data from my project software to show you where the Pirates are in their long-term cycle. This is based on my own player value assumptions as of the end of the 2008 season so that’s why you don’t see Karstens, Ohlendorf, and several other players I personally don’t believe hold long-term value. Plus, I used my assumptions to fill in some slots to give you some sense of where and when players come and go. You can make the same chart at home and plug in the players and time frames you like, just be sure to carry forward the known contracts.
No matter which names you plug in, or where you plug them in, when you throw in the Pirates current short-term model you get a jumbled long-term mess (four years plus out).
Consider this.. what is the probability Sanchez and Wilson will still be here in 2011?Derecho, pretty close to zero. So plug in two middle infield rookies starting at least by 2011. And at some point McCutchen, Alvarez, and Tabata are going to come up so plug those rookies in too.
Starting to get a feel for it? That sure is one heck of a lot of rookies running around behind our “veteran” pitchers the next couple of years, and at critical positions too. So if the Pirates are going to start getting more competitive along the way, they either have to do it before the entire defense becomes rookie’ville, or before all the starters we have with any experience leave.
Take a minute and chart it out using your own players, then come back and read the rest of this.
Derecho, the long-term plan is becoming more fragmented with every three-year contract signed. The Pirates emphasis doesn’t appear to be in building a long-term plan, the emphasis is in signing arbitration eligible players at their lowest cost value in their first year of arb. In other words, all we are seeing in the short-term plan is the Pirates leveraging their position to keep payroll as low as possible every year.
Not in building a long-term competitive club.
The Pirates often mention the Brewers as a model they like but they rarely offer multiple year deals until the second year of arb and almost always lock up key youth for numerous years to include two free agent years plus like Ryan Braun (8 año, $45M) and Bill Hall (4 año, $24M plus one club option year), whereas other youth wait for a deal at least through their first arb year like Hardy, Bush, Coffey, and McClung. Fielder is the obvious exception to the rule.
Look around the game.. it’s not just the Brewers, almost all of the teams lock up key players long-term buying multiple free agent years. With position players it’s a bit easier than pitchers who break down more often, but clubs do offer multiple club option years to pitchers to keep them in-house, and rarely do they offer a multiple year deal until their second year of arb.
That’s just smart long-term business sense.
Not the Pirates. And the only one we did offer it to (or if we offered, the only one to accept) was Ryan Doumit who agreeed to the two club option years as long as the Pirates exercised them both in one year. How bizarre was that?
Our long-term model is taking a hit with these three-year, first arb year deals. I understand we can ask the player for additional years later down the road but that’s a risk we shouldn’t be assuming. Throw in Alvarez’s bizarre six-years-and-I-plan-to-run-so-fast-it-makes-your-head-spin MLB deal, and we’re not getting anywhere.
Until this organization starts thinking long-term, agents and players are going to continue to refuse to buy in resulting in first year draft picks gone in six years, key players signing away no more than one free agent year (which is when we deal them making it useless anyway), and player production tanking the year after they get their big money deals. It’s a dysfunctional cycle that has gone on too long and has to be broke.
That was what I expected as a fan from Frank Coonelly being hired. So far it’s not working for anyone but the Nutting family.
Jake, shouldn’t Alvarez be w/ the club through the 2014 temporada? También, no faith in Walker or Laroche to contribute to the club in any way eh?
When the Pirates get players of Braun’s caliber on it’s roster, things may change. Right now they’re wrapping up lesser talent for a satisfactory period. In a way, it’s business as usual, but the players are getting fatter contracts upfront. Good business? I’m not sure. It may become different if Alvarez, Cutch, Tabata, etc pan out. From what I understand Maholm is getting an option year for his first year of F.A. So it’s actually a 4 year deal for him. To me, it’s a good deal for mgmt and the player.
On another front: you’ve expressed a desire to sign Veritek. What do you think about Pudge instead? Cheaper, same offensive numbers, reasonable leadership, still calls a good game.
Thanks.
Isn’t ‘09 AdamLa’s last arb year?
I think we also need to keep in mind that every year we will add players thru the draft and free agency. This deal makes sense for all parties because this helps to set the budget for this year and beyond. Good chart.
Cuenta
It is SP however there’s no quality replacement inside or out so it might be wise to offer him arb. If he declines we could get a sand. pick out of it.
Jake
As usual great post. Just a thought… do you think the timing of the collective bargaining agreement expiring after the 2011 season has any play in the decisions that Coonelly makes now? Maybe all those years in the mlb office he may know something.
I agree with you that we HAVE to buy out free agency years, unless the rules of the game are about to change.
Pensamientos?
I don’t see any young players that warrant being signed for any extended time. You do that to players who you can build a team around and I just don’t see it.
Maholm? At best, he is a 3rd starter. No reason to drop the bank on him.
McClouth – Average outfielder at best.
Doumit – Average
The list goes on. This team is so depleted of good, young talent, let’s not reach for players who you can’t really build a team around.
Alvarez, McCutchen, or Tabata might be our first hope of locking down a player long term, a player that is worthy.
Signing Maholm for 5 years will not make this team any better.
Good job nailing another contract Jake, you’re getting pretty good at those. Put me down for wishing Maholm had given the Pirates five years too because I’m not as comfortable with our pitching depth.
Well Jake, i found ya. Good Model for the future of the Buccos. So many parts missing for the future hopefully Huntington can keep drafting well like he did in year 1 Alvarez was the pick for the first round not the Pirates fault he’s been lazy in his working out and keeping in shape. Pirates need more guys in the 20-22 range like they have in A-Cutch, Bryan Morris, José Tabata, and so on and so on. Maybe they should go the route of drafting more high schoolers with mulitple tools sure it takes longer to get them up to the bigs 3/4 years our college drafting of late has been garbage except for this year. I would like to see the Pirates grabbing some of the unsigned talent out of the venezulan and dominican winter leagues there was a few pitchers i saw that had better numbers then a lot of AA-AAA talent we had.
Jake, what is your take on platooning? With the Hinske signing they now have some interesting platoon opportunities. Hinske/AnLaroche, Pearce/AdLaroche, and Monroe/Morgan are obvious matches. I’m not sure how Russell feels about platooning, but I think it should be considered. Given AdLaroche’s struggles to start the seasons, what would hurt sitting him periodically (more than in the past)against lefties. Many players got adjusted to the ML by platooning in the past. Today players are rushed, exposed, and judged too quickly. A platoon would push the players, give them a better chance of success, and help the bench with pitching changes late in the game. It would also keep your bench players fresher. Hopefully AnLaroche would force Russell to play him everyday with his play and AdLaroche would improve his stats and do the same thus increasing his trade value. Just some ideas.
Surprised they cut Beam lose. He seemed better than Sanchez and Hanson. More moves coming??
Cuenta
Jake, do you think if either Laroche struggles that Hinske sees more time at either 3rd/1b in the early going.
Okay let be honest, no matter how you look at it the Pirates future is bleak. They have some decent young talent, but they either aren’t good enough to make significant contributions, will leave through free agency once they do, or will be too old to contribute long term once the team does become competitive. But that is not the worst of it for the Pirates. They don’t sign ANYONE! And even if they wanted to, no good free agent wants to play for the Pirates. Let’s look at this off season. Rocco Baldelli (he was destined to sing with the Red Sox from the start, but he still counts) Ty Wigington, Daniel Caberra, and Pedro Martinez all either signed somewhere else, or will. And No player wants to come be a Pirate because they know they won’t win. And as for the youth movement, remember when the Pirates got Freddy Sanchez? I do, he was a stud prospect with the Red Sox. Know he is an injured ageing 3B who won’t be with the team much longer (I think he will rebound this year btw, so the Pirates would be stupid to rid themselves of him). Here’s how the Pirates get better. Continue the youth movement, and sign a few good players (I like the Hinske signing). They obviously won’t be competitive right away, but a sign of improvement plus a veteran presence will help the rebuilding/youth movement, and make them look better in the eyes of free agents. The next few drafts will be of extreme importance for the Pirates. Draft a few guys who could have an impact in the next few years and suddenly the future is bright (Hablando de eso, how come is it that the Red Sox were able to hire Bill James, one of the best stats guys in baseball history, and have pumped out stud prospects over the last 6 año: John Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, and now Jed Lowire. THE PIRATES ALWAYS DRAFT BEFORE THE RED SOX. OH and I forgot the biggest prospect to come from the Sox farm system, Hanley Ramirez). en 5 año (maybe sooner) the Pirates should be a playoff contender. I will admit I am a Red Sox, but this offseason I have taken an interest in the Pirate because they are always so bad, and I hoped them might improve this year. sin embargo, I don’t see it happening. SO until the Pirates start rewarding you for you loyalty, pick another team and root for them. Red Sox Nation is always looking for fans! My condolences (I honestly hope the Pirates get better.)
I think outside of McLouth Arbitration case the Buccos budget is pretty much done for the offseason they wont bring in a GCL (gas can looper) or pedro they will go with the semi youth pitching staff of maholm, snell, gorzo, karstens, and zach duke probably.
Gracias Jake, glad to be here.
Here’s an idea. WHy don’t the Pirates trade for someone like Delmon Young from the twins? Don’t get me wrong, he’s not a superstar, but he is a solid OF who hit .290 last year. También, Su 10 HR and 69 RIB aren’t bad considering it was only his 3erd year, and at 24 there is no way he has reached his cealing. He is an established young player who makes less the 2M, and the Twins are, and have been trying to trade him.
Edwin Jackson would also have been a good target. Sure he didn’t have the best season last year, but he was goog enough 14-11 recored, and still 26.
Another guy I like, and no one will probably agree with this, Lastings Miledge. Much like Young he wasn’t great last year, but he’s cheap, a five tool player, and at 24 could be a very good player in a couple of years, at the very least I believe a solid bench player who can hit for power and steal bases.
I don’t think the Pirates should sign Looper, and I am not sure about Pedro either, he’s just toooooo OLD. aunque, if Pedro does sign with the Pirates, I will still view it as a step in the right direction, by adding a veteran presence.
sin embargo, the best move the Pirates made all offseason was adding Joe Kerrigan as their pitching coach. I had a bad expirence with him when he was with the Red Sox (and he was a TERRIBLE manager, so if they wind up looking for one, don’t pull for Kerrigan) but he can wok wonders with pitchers. He made David Cone a 9 game winner in Boston after that 4-14 season he had in NY. Point is the Pirates have a good pitching coach who can really help YOUNG pitchers.
That is why I think letting Danial Caberra sign somewhere else was the biggest mistake both the Pirates and Caberra this offseason. He might not pitch well somewhere else, but I think is would have with the Pirates.
I agree it is time to get rid of Snell, and Wilson. sin embargo, I wouldn’t rule out signing pitching. Infact I woulden’t rule anything out. Because the Pirates are in the situation they are in now, they really just need to improve. Before the Pirates can be a liget contender they are going to need to seriously fix their image. Unfortunately no one takes them seriously, and why should they. They lose every year. But I agree, having someone who can hit for power in the OF is important. So why not trade for Carl Crawford? I am pretty sure the Rays were trying to deal him at the deadline last year, and though he only hit 8 HR last year, he was banged up and I think will play better next year. He is also someone who’s going to hit lost to 90 RBI, steal a TON of bases and hit at or close to .300, and did I mention he’s still only 27. The Mariners are looking to trade Adrian Beltra, he hits for power and if Seattle is willing to eat some of his salary then he might be worth looking into. and he’s only 30. I also really like Jeremy Hermida of the Marlins. I know Hermida would be expensive to get through trade, but if I were a Pirates fan, it would make me feel better just to know my team considered it. Another guy I think they should at the very least keep an eye on is Andrew Jones. Yea he was more then terrible last year, but signing him to a low cost high incentive deal would work for two reasons. One, it gives the Pirates a low cost power hitter who can bring fans into the stadium, and he can be cut at any point if he doesn’t produce. Two, if he does meet all of his incentives and becomes to expensive for the Pirates he can be traded at midseason to a team looking for someone to put them over the top, and the pirates will get more prospects then he is worth. I also think they should have signed John Garland, he’s not the greatest pitcher ever, but he has been consistent and is good for 12-15 gana. He was expensive at 6 molino, but at some point this franchise is going to have to spend some money. en 29, Garland should still be pitching well in 4 years when the Pirates (I would hope) start contending for the playoffs.
yes Brian.. 2014. I did the post in the middle of the night so I got middle of the night results trying to read the export from my project software.
Andy LaRoche or Neil Walker? En, I’m not in the camp that believes they will be contributing enough to warrant a starting position. But that’s me.
Pudge? Not for me. y sí, Adam’s out of here after 2009 but I have him inked for one additional year in my personal short-term plan.
backfin – En, I think the agreement will remain much like we know it today for one reason – the game is too flush with cash. I’m hearing the two sides aren’t agreeing on second year FA year values so that’s why it isn’t getting done.
And I agree, you HAVE to buy out FA years at discounted pricing. That’s how you move forward whether you keep the player at that reduced cost or have more tradable equity.
billy, if Maholm is a #3 as you suggest, then why would you not attempt to lock him up for two of his FA years at an overall reduced cost? That’s just smart biz of baseball.
As for for statement “I don’t see any young players that warrant being signed for any extended time” – that’s subjective of course and I respect your opinion.
I happen to believe Maholm is one of the few that warrant that look.. his arm action is clean, mechanics smooth, he’s taken the heat off our staff for three solid years by matching up against opposing team aces more than any other pitcher we have, and his numbers continue to improve. En, he’s not an ace and, Sí, he doesn’t miss enough bats to be sexy, but as long as he keeps the ball on the ground he’s always going to hold value. But that’s me. Good stuff.
hey Mike.. long time no see. High school arms are intriguing to me but few clubs like to go that route, for obvious reasons. But I’d take a few from the 20th round on. HS bats, sí.. all day if they have ‘da toolz.
I’m not a big believer in Latin arms. The good ones we can’t afford so the few eyes we have over there will have to dig them out before they hatch, if you get my drift.
Good to see you again.
I don’t think you platoon Hinske in the NLCD natky.. he plays where needed without that consideration unless there is crafty oldtimer southpaw on the mound and then he probably sits. As for LaRoche, he plays. Periodo. Fin de la historia. His salary is the reason.
Another thing about platooning.. you take ABs from youth or devalue veteran players by doing that. As for Morgan’s AB, I don’t think the brass is too worried about losing his but I think there’s still a chance they are after an OF. Stay tuned.
Thanks Charles.. I had him at $16M/3 and he signed at $13.75M/3. That’s not close, but thanks the same
T.J Beam was cut wow?, He’s better then the Big Chief Romulo Sanchez, and Craig Hansen he served a legit purpose last year long relief for those horrid starting performances, i think the only reason he was cut he will be turning 29, they want to go i guess with wild things of the pen instead. The only hope is that Daniel McCutchen wins a bully spot so we dont see either one in the pen.
I’m not surprised.. he’ll probably float thru the wire and end up back in Indy. No loss if he doesn’t.
Mike – my opinion only but they both have to play in my book. Hinske isn’t signed to take AB from Andy’s development in the league and we can’t afford to devalue Adam. I think Hinske gets his AB in LF.
> will admit I am a Red Sox, but this offseason I have taken an interest in the Pirate because they are always so bad, and I hoped them might improve this year..
Misery loves company! Welcome to the ship Adam.
agreed, other than a LF possibility.
I haven’t followed Young since his Rays days but his youthful ways wouldn’t seem to fit the Pirates new “Christian culture” we have brewing. I always liked the guy myself.. scrappy, intense, but immature at times. Jackson’s heater runs too straight – he’d get mauled in the NLCD with the short parks.
Milledge and McCutchen in the OF together is intriguing but I’d like to see more power from my RH corner OF myself.
I don’t think we sign a pitcher unless we have designs to finally get rid of Snell which is what we should have done years ago. And yeah, Kerrigan is a great teacher by example, as is Perry Hill. Both are quality field instructors and good guys.
We upgraded at least one area coaching staff with Hill and Kerrigan. Huntington did his best to put a bench together for about what 7 mil didn’t do as bad of a job as last year.