Analyzing the Pittsburgh Pirates blueprint

Nearly every day I get an email that starts something like this: “Where are we going?”  I used to answer those with a simple response - we’re rebuilding and it’s going to take time.  But then I would typically get a reply saying something like “What do you mean rebuilding when we aren’t making any trades?” 

Casual fans just don’t get it like hard-core fans do, but recent statements by Neal Huntington, Frank Coonelly, and unquestionably in Larry Corrigan’s radio interview the other day, are now confusing even the hard-core fans.  So let’s take a look at the Pirates blueprint and see if that answers some of your questions.

Why the Pirates won’t admit to rebuilding

Because they aren’t, and they won’t be, at least not in the traditional sense.  I finally realized this the other day when I was communicating with one of the Pirates top brass.  After I hit the send button it dawned on me that my rational for thinking we were in a rebuilding mode was completely off base. 

When we hear the term rebuilding as fans we immediately jump to the conclusion there will be a fire sale.. du, dump everyone you can and reload with youthful prospects.  In previous years with the Pirates and other franchises this was the case.  But as I mentioned the other day, baseball’s landscape has changed dramatically the last 18 months and, while it might have been feasible to have a fire sale in December 2006, it’s nearly impossible to do that now. 

varför?  Because the value of toolsy youth has skyrocketed beyond reasonableness.

Three years ago a club could have wrestled a Carl Crawford type of player away from a team like the Rays by taking on his big contract and giving back one or two toolsy prospects, but that’s nearly impossible any more.  Now an organization has to give up three or four 60+ score (out of 80) prospects PLUS eat the large contract.  The days of the Yankees or Red Sox dealing their better draft picks for guys like Crawford are gone unless an organization virtually wipes out the top level of their farm system.

And it’s only going to get worse.

So if we’re not rebuilding per se, what are we doing?

I suppose that’s best answered by another “R” ord – restructuring.  First we saw this at the upper most levels of the organization when Kevin McClatchy stepped down and Bob Nutting took over.  Nutting took a year to evaluate the system and consult with his peers and then made the decision to restructure the balance of the organization starting with the hiring of Frank Coonelly. 

That was the biggest decision Nutting had and, while I think Coonelly was his man all along, I don’t believe it was for the reasons that garnered our attention as fans.  Sure, Coonelly could help Nutting save a few dollars with his arbitration background, and sure, Nutting would probably benefit financially by having an ex-MLB guy take the reins, but I don’t think that’s the main reason why Coonelly was hired.

Istället, I believe he had a different vision on how to turn this organization around.  We’ll call it “Frank’s Plan” from here on out.

Now I can’t speak for Coonelly because I haven’t even discussed this with him, and he’s free to leave us a comment below if he so desires, but we’ve all heard a few different media reports from credible sources that Huntington and Coonelly appear to be heading in different directions at times.  I believe professional tension exists between the two parties but I don’t believe it’s anything to write home to mom about, nor do I think there is any infighting between them.

Istället, Neal Huntington wants to command the restructuring as any GM would but Frank Coonelly just isn’t willing to let go of those reins – thus the difference of opinion that sometimes is played out in the press.  It’s not that Huntington and Coonelly are on different pages, it’s that Huntington wants traditional GM power and he doesn’t quite have it yet.

That’s also part of Frank’s Plan.

Traditional GM’s handle roster affairs and only go to the President or ownership for financial approvals.  True, when a franchise player like a Jason Bay is possibly going to be dealt, that’s different.  But day-to-day roster management is generally always handled exclusively by the GM without interference from the President or ownership except, as I said, for financial approval.  (I hear some of the front office types across baseball laughing at that last comment because there are a lot of owners who meddle.. have faith – keep reading.)

But in Pittsburgh, Frank Coonelly has added another layer to Neal Huntington’s ability to manage his roster – trade approval.  Maybe not in every case, but in most.

That’s also part of Frank’s Plan.

So now that the Pirates have taken two years to restructure the organization (Januari 2007 – Januari 2009) in what they ultimately called a culture change, we’re starting to see phase two of Franks Plan take root.

Surfing the waves

I’ve spoken here numerous times over the years about Jonah Keri’s fabulous article at Baseball Prospectus in 2002 called “The Success Cycle.”   There Keri outlined exactly where Dave Littlefield’s plan differed from Cam Bonifay’s and why Littlefield appeared to be heading in the wrong direction in his.

To what extent Littlefield was his own problem over all those years isn’t at issue here.  But notice how Frank’s Plan has so far paralleled Littlefield’s plan – dealing a couple of vets for some youth, locking up fan appealing players to longer term deals, and picking up a few pieces of worthy fruit here and there to help the current team. 

But there’s one notable difference in Frank’s Plan than from either Bonifay’s or Littlefield’s.. holes are being filled and tradable youth and veterans are staying put.

It appears Frank’s Plan is to let the current wave of players - Wilson, Sanchez, Doumit, McLouth, and Adam LaRoche – remain in place regardless of the cost or resulting wins for one benefit Bonifay and Littlefield never seemed to understand or could afford.. full development of the next wave. 

And based on what we’ve heard in the media from trade opportunities Neal Huntington has taken to Coonelly for approval the last two years that were ultimately shot down (Wilson times two, Bay to Cleveland, Maholm, Snell, Grabow, etc.), it appears Huntington doesn’t understand Frank’s Plan either.   I mean, on the surface it doesn’t make a bit of sense just as Keri alluded to – either you commit to a full rebuild or you ultimately end up with a disaster.

But in reality it’s the first time in two decades anything our front office has done that does make sense.

Breaking down the blueprint on each wave

Frank’s Plan requires that current holes in Pittsburgh be filled first, then the next wave’s holes filled second, and then a third wave developed behind that as we saw by the selection of the risky but talented Bryan Morris in the Bay trade and the drafting of riskier high school products in Robbie Grossman and Quinton Miller.

The first wave can easily be defined as the current core group of Pirates that make up the 25-man roster.   One theory why Wilson wasn’t dealt is because Frank’s Plan won’t allow a hole to go unfilled unless a reasonable youthful replacement is found, especially a critical position like the left side middle infield for the Bucs. 

Huntington couldn’t find one so Wilson remains a Buc.  And no, Frank’s Plan doesn’t allow a utility or below average player (perhaps as projected by the Pirates pro scouts?, although I do know Coonelly can break down players pretty good himself) to assume the duties unless that is the result after a trade is made which ultimately makes this organization better overall.

The second wave includes the balance of the 40-man not on the active roster plus just about anyone in 2A and up.  But more specifically by each position:  a hole at first base possibly filled by either Andy LaRoche or Pedro Alvarez with the other player remaining on the other corner, Shelby Ford at second, perhaps Brian Friday at short (though a bit early to declare him), Jose Tabata in left, Andrew McCutchen in center, perhaps Brandon Moss in right, and maybe Ryan Doumit catching the first couple of years of this wave, although I see a hole at this position myself. 

That wave is scheduled to begin no later than 2011 and will probably also include starting pitchers Tom Gorzelanny and Paul Maholm (signed to five year deals in 2009?), any graduates of the Joe Kerrigan two-year school of pitching (Karstens, Ohlendorf, McCutchen, Lincoln, McSwain, Barthmaier, Beam, and Meek are likely candidates), plus any possible advanced top draft pick in 2009.

Then the third wave will start pushing to shore around 2014 – 2015 hopefully providing the depth needed for a consistent run in the division year-in and year-out. 

Get it?Höger, it’s actually very simple and exactly what Ed Creech/Dave Littlefield and Cam Bonifay/Mickey White were doing all their years but didn’t have the financial luxury to continue playing higher priced dead weight in Pittsburgh so the next wave could continue to develop.

The risks

Mickey White was no fool, and by most standards Ed Creech and his lowly paid foot soldiers didn’t do too bad a job either contrary to public opinion.  Unfortunately, player development failed both men not to mention many of their riskier picks led to too many bad luck flameouts.

We’re still at risk for these types of drafting errors/problems because we have, by most accounts, too many unproven foot soldiers at the area level.  As I was recently told, most clubs like to place area scouts with no less than three years of proven experience under their belts, but we’re not there yet in some important parts of the country. 

Throw in the fact our scouting department took a significant hit several years ago when this organization had a hard time coughing up payroll for their scouts, and to say we lost ground from the associate scout level up from China to the US would be an understatement. 

Frank Coonelly is doing what he can to try and change that sentiment in the industry with  increased cash flow to the department, Neal Huntington is placing more emphasis on the voices in each region as evidenced by the last draft, and even little things like Coonelly passing out water on hot days to advance scouts working at PNC during the year is making a difference.  Trust me, scouts are talking about all this.

But it’s going to take time.. it’s going to take a lot of time.. to alter the mindset of those foot soldiers in this game who are true difference makers we might like to employ by giving life changing money to, because they still won’t come.

As for player development, I covered that in December by basically saying that it’s nice we have weeded out the cultural problems, it’s nice that we have a new blueprint, and it’s nice that Stark is working passionately 24/7/365.  That’s a huge start which will begin to show up more in the third wave than we’ll notice in the second wave. 

But there are still glaring problems in PD. 

For one, we seem to be hiring too many temporary stopgaps like quality field staff being hired on one year deals.  That reduces productivity, reduces cohesiveness within the system, and continues the mentality that Pittsburgh is a place to hang out waiting for a better gig.

och två, Kyle Stark has handed way too much power to his rovers.  If you read my blog you know I’ve touched on this during the last year and Stark is adamant his system’s approach is the best way, but in some folks eyes there’s already been too much damage inflicted both inside and outside the system with the power his rovers are commanding. 

Typically when a rover visits a minor league team in most other organizations they listen to the field staff, do their work with the players and their plans, and then observe.  They don’t take out bullhorns and take over like we’re seeing in our system.  Perhaps this will be toned down some this year with the hiring of some more professional help 2A and up. We’ll have to see.

Slutligen, as we all know it comes down to tools in this game and the Pirates have taken some positive steps forward trying to find that talent outside the draft like the new academy in the Dominican Republic and spending more time outside the US looking at potential talent. 

Ultimately impact talent outside the draft is going to primarily come from trades so it’s up to Neal Huntington and his advisors to find that talent when the opportunity presents itself, and as well as Frank Coonelly’s willingness to let Huntington pull the trigger.  So far Frank’s Plan has been to keep a light touch on the trigger, for better or for worse.

Conclusion

First and foremost don’t ever forget you are watching The Frank Coonelly Show here in Pittsburgh.  Before Frank it was the Kevin McClatchy Show.  From all the sources that I have reached, it appears the Nuttings are not, and never have been, involved in any micromanaging as I have suspected.

Med detta sagt, there are still a lot of holes in our processes as well as in the prospect waves building offshore, as noted above.  While we have patched quite a few of the holes and this ship is back afloat, it’s only just treading water.  As Keri noted, Frank’s Plan is risky in that he’s not selling a full rebuild like Branch Rickey did here in the 50’s, and if we’re at the same position in two years we were two years ago, it’s going to be a lot easier to see.

Mer, 2009 is a defining year for this franchise in many ways.  If the Pirates draw 1.4 million fans or less and/or lose 100 Spel, ownership is going to be put in a precarious position as many needed revenue streams are all but sure to dry up until the next wave hits Pittsburgh.

Ownership knows that better than anyone and that’s why they handed the reins to Frank.  It’s his baby, sink or swim, although this ownership is probably going to be very quick to pull the rug out if the ship starts to sink too much.

Stage three of Frank’s Plan?  .500 baseball riding the surf year-in and year-out.  I’m betting in his heart he wants it in 2011, will settle for 2012, but probably realizes his cycle begins in earnest in 2013.

Will that be too late? And will Frank’s Plan even work at all? 

Good questions.. tough questions.  On paper it all seems so simple.