Zach Duke wins. On the road, no less!

By Jake, on April 10, 2010, at 11:59 pm | 9 comments

The Diamondbacks brass were probably sitting in their offices during Saturday’s game fuming while Duke was mowing their roster down. You see, Duke was one of their offseason targets and Huntington politely turned them away saying he wasn’t available. In the long run I can’t help wondering if those execs will be successful in getting their man later on down the road?

Saturday night was Duke night — he threw 99 pitches, allowed just four hits, gave up two earned runs in the 7th on a LaRoche double and a Reynolds long, yard ball, and most importantly - his defense held up. Oh, there were quite a few wacky mistakes on our part (McCutchen airmailed a relay throw, Jones too lazy to lean over far enough to get the ball in the mitt, and Doumit unable to glove quite a few pitches, for examples) but in the end they didn’t hurt us much.

Hat tip to Duke – he pitched a masterful game, and hat tip to Bucs management for finally showing up with some advanced scouting work and player positioning because we were right where we had to be pretty much every pitch. That has been a rarity and it was quite obvious somebody spent a lot of time analyzing the game plan. It kind of makes me wonder if there was an ulterior motive - to continue building up Duke’s trade value for when this team becomes engrossed in their annual nose dive? It sure seems like he’s starting to be set up for the push out the door. Been there, done that. Just a guess.

Jeff Clement with a no doubter home run. Good stuff there. Aki’s was just as impressive. Haren was up in the zone too much most of the night catching too much plate and that hurt him in the end. But just as we put a lot of emphasis building a defensive plan behind Duke, somebody spent some time breaking down Haren for the guys too because we made some quick adjustments within innings that I don’t typically see us make.

Except for Doumit, that is, who earned the golden sombrero award for four strikeouts on the night. You think he needs a rest?  LOL

McCutchen has become pull-happy while also hitting most everything on the ground anymore. He just doesn’t look comfortable at the plate. He’s being pitched to a lot better than last year and that’s probably part of the problem – he needs to make a few adjustments, but still, he’s not generating the bat speed and he’s not generating loft he usually does when he’s on. Maybe just a rut.. perhaps pressing too much.

Andy LaRoche has opened slow too but at least he’s been stinging the ball some.. they just aren’t falling in for him unlike McCutchen who is hitting easy out ground balls most the time. Milledge has been a nice surprise and I agree with what John Russell said Friday that he’s been very unselfish with the bat, but I’m not in the camp that thinks he needs to be batting third. That’s nuts - too much pressure. But whoever told Milledge to not wear his bright yellow shoes (if anyone did) needs a pat on the back – he has a long way to go before he’ll earn the right to be that loud.

But the real drama of the game didn’t begin until the 8th. Donnelly replaced Tachner who was all over the place and had given up a double but took third on Cutch’s throwing error over second, and walked a batter.  I then counted five times Donnelly backed off the mound on Doumit shaking his head. To the casual eye it looked like they weren’t together on signs, but to me it looked like Donnelly was choking on what Doumit’s pitch selection was pitch after pitch after pitch. It was a critical part of the game with two on — first and third — and the Bucs up by 4. 

To make matters worse, Doumit wasn’t gloving many his pitches. The first pitch he threw was a slider that bounced out of Doumit’s glove and squirted away. Luckily the runner at first was lost in space at the moment because he easily could have been at second.  Donnelly eventually walked that batter leaving the bases full for Abreu.

Donnelly threw a first pitch changeup that hung right in the middle of the plate and Abreu just watched it float by (thank gosh!).  Doumit put his signs down for the second pitch and Donnelly backed off the rubber shaking his head. Doumit went out to talk to him. Donnelly threw a low fastball for pitch two which bounced right before Doumit and almost squirted through his legs. The next pitch was fouled off, and pitch four was thrown at Abreu’s feet to make him dance a bit but it was so close it almost hit him. Then after Donnelly stepped off again, Abreu hit a sac fly liner to center that McCutchen airmailed his relay over second and both runners moved up a base.

Upton came to the plate and took ball one after an initial Donnelly step off the mound. Then ball two and Doumit went back out to see Donnelly when he backed off the rubber again. Upton fouled off the next pitch and Donnelly stepped off again and was visibly upset with Doumit’s pitch selection. One more step off the mound and Donnelly had Upton chasing a slider off the plate away, and then backed that same pitch up a second time for the strikeout.

And John Russell came running out of the dugout with a hook to get Donnelly and end the drama.

It was hilarious and reminded me of Roberto Hernandez taking Doumit to task in his pitch selection.  Here was a veteran pitcher who obviously was able to read the batters weakness better than Doumit and he just wasn’t going to allow Doumit to call a pitch he didn’t want to throw. Period, end of story. Doumit kept trying.. he’d throw down one sign, then try another, then a third – Donnelly would step off shaking his head like a mad man and then toe the rubber, throw a pitch, and the same sequence would start all over.

I think it is fair to say that Donnelly and Doumit don’t jive together at this point.

So I tip my hat to Donnelly – he did what every one of our pitchers should learn to do.. control the game when the game controller isn’t quite sure what he is doing.

And how about Adam LaRoche? Two men on, two outs in the 8th, down three, and facing a sidewinder southpaw in Lopez and he eventually strikes out. Sound familiar? I don’t know why he wasn’t hit for because he isn’t known to be a quality AB guy in April, much less against a tougher lefty, but bat he did and that was the end of the threat. In July he probably hits a gap shot.. in April he strikes out. Just something about the early season with him.

In the end it was all Zach Duke and whoever designed the defensive game plan. The two clicked.

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.600 baseball. Un-be-lievable.  And hey, the Giants are winning every single game they play so our timing in playing them will be perfect since they will be on the dive. Right?

Right?

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Poor Houston.

0-5 having scored just 12 runs in 5 games and given up 35. Wow. I hear you.. they are a late season club. Not this year they aren’t.

Time to sell that puppy.

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What the…??  Pedro didn’t go deep Saturday night?  Someone log a protest. After two days of run scoring frenzies, I’m guessing those boys are tuckered out.  Moss 3-5.. batting .300. Stay focused.. this guy is going to light it up. I’m telling you..

Tim Alderson threw a four-hitter for Altoona against a very weak Harrisburg club. The good news is, he only walked 2.

And poor Kyle McPhearson.. he throws a five hitter over five, strikes out 3 and walks none, allows just one earned run, but his defense kicks the ball all over the diamond on him allowing two more to score and he ends up taking the loss. Damn those Huntington draftees. LOL  That roster has some major freaky bats.

April 10th, 2010 | Tags: , , , | Category: 2010 game notes

Bucs bullpen: full of bull and short of pen?

By Jake, on February 12, 2010, at 7:11 pm | 8 comments

Another headline from the Pirates PR channel at pirateball.com:

“Bucs’ bullpen much improved from ’09″

Much Improved?  In which way?  Let’s see:

“So, is this bullpen built to be less of a liability in 2010? Statistics, even though they can be misleading when it comes to projecting reliever performance, would suggest that yes, the ‘pen will be better.

Replacing Capps at the back end will be Dotel, who hasn’t closed for a full season since 2004..

The 38-year-old Brendan Donnelly.. brings eight seasons of experience with him.. though the fact that he is less than three years removed from Tommy John surgery remains a slight concern..

Lopez represents the left-handed option that the Pirates lacked and is looking to emulate the success that he had with the Red Sox from 2006-08..”

Better statistically even though the author sees huge red flags.  Ok, now we have something to go on.  Let’s see if the ‘better statistically’ premise is even close to accurate.

Let’s take all the relief pitchers from the NLCD in 2009 who appeared in at least 30 games and throw them together.  Then let’s add the three new additions and rank them by OPS allowed just for fun:

Donnelly and Carrasco look to be a nice addition based on that one stat (if you don’t also peek at Carrasco’s leverage index of .62) while Dotel and Lopez finish well out of the money.

How about if we rank by percentage of inherited runners who scored?  Once again, Donnelly ranked well as only 3 of 15 scored for a 20% ranking while Lopez wasn’t trusted enough to be put in a position to find out what he could do.  Dotel choked with 52% scoring which, granted, was a tick better than Capps, but significantly higher than league average as well as Chavez we lost. Carasco choked there too.

Where our new additions look really good is in the one stat our GM tells us is worthless with relievers – ERA.  When I look closer at Dotel and Donnelly’s ERA using xERA as a comparative tool, Dotel’s ERA looks legitimate despite a ridiculous number of walks, but Donnelly’s was somewhat lucky (mainly from lots of walks) although still very good. 

Considering Donnelly barely made our cutoff since he only appeared in 30 games, I’m not so sure we’re looking at a true representative sample for him.  Also, the NLED isn’t exactly known for having the best advance scouting departments.  That being said, this is a young club which is more likely to need his services at home so I suspect we’ll see him rack up considerably more innings at the friendly confines of PNC Park where he should shine — as long as he stays healthy.

As for Dotel and Lopez?  Dotel pitched in some pretty big parks except at home but his position is now somewhat reversed where his home park is larger and his road parks are going to give him fits.  I think that’s problematic for Dotel because he’s going to have to rely heavily on Kerrigan for batters to walk to get to batters he can handle (his MO) because he doesn’t know NL batters.  Throw in small away parks and I think we’re looking at a road implosion candidate who very well might put up nasty numbers at home. 

And are we supposed to think D.J Carrasco hasn’t forgotten that he was forced to throw +26 innings in 1999 from 1998 and then never given a chance in Pittsburgh which resulted in a somewhat dysfunctional career including pitching in Japan? And what about the fact that Neal Huntington was director of player development with the Indians in 1998 when Carrasco was handed his release papers?  Am I the only one who thinks there is a huge cultural red flag there?

Anyway, was the premise accurate? A couple of statistics are better, most statistics are worse, and some statistics are questionable and/or unreliable.  I happen to be a big believer in the percentage of inherited runners which score stat when combined with opportunity leverage and in that regard we’re worse off as a whole with the new additions I used above. 

There might be some merit to the argument that Dotel and Carrasco pitched in the AL, in a short-perch park no less, which on the surface seems like they should have a tick better advantage. But I don’t buy into that argument because the batting average and OPS difference between the NLCD and ALCD is statistically insignificant plus they are now having to pitch more often in less pitching friendly parks. Add in the age of all these additions, but add some love because of their experience level, then subtract for their health risks and I think we’re looking at a weaker pen, not an improved pen.

“I think the bullpen this year is really going to surprise a lot of people,” Meek said. “I don’t think [manager John Russell] is going to hesitate to use us.”

Aside from Meek issuing the standard 2010 corporate-love player PR statement, let’s hope he’s wrong and that our starters are able to go deeper into the game than ever because I’m not personally comfortable that we have any better tools in the pen to hold leads than last year.

Not that we’ll have many, that is.

February 12th, 2010 | Tags: , , , , | Category: Feature Story