By Jake, on June 5, 2010, at 10:28 pm | 12 comments
What a nice game for the good guys. Lots of hitting, pretty good defense, and slick pitching in front of a sold out crowd in the stands. That’s good stuff. McCutchen put on a show going 4-5 and a triple away from the cycle, Walker with a couple of nice knocks right behind him moving McCutchen around, and Doumit and his pasty mustache knocked him home time and again.
On this night the Pirates looked like they had some future run scoring potential but in reality it was because we were facing Todd Wellemeyer who makes Jeff Karstens look like an ace when he’s not on. Saturday night Wellemeyer wasn’t on. He left in the 4th after a leadoff McCutchen home run and Walker walked, but we managed just four hits the rest of the way.
Dotel made it a little exciting at the end when the Giants loaded the bases and Freddy Sanchez came up with the outfield playing in challenging him to hit it over their heads and he almost did – he hit a shot to the left field warning track that Milledge had to dive for and he caught it. That would have tied the game.
It was nice to see all the players smiling and having a good time on the field in this game but to be quite blunt, the more they looked relaxed, the worse they played. By the end of the game it was a farce – three or four pitches got past Doumit, relay throws bouncing around the infield like in a pin ball machine, a dropped catch, and so on.
But the fans enjoyed the game even though there some looks of concern at the end:
Good to see the place packed.
–
I was sent an analysis of Neal Huntington’s record by a reader who, in essence, stated he felt it was too early to properly evaluate Huntington and used Andrew Friedman’s work with the Rays as an example why. Oddly, another fan sent an e-mail to me earlier this week also using Friedman in his example so I guess somebody, somewhere is trying to make the point that Huntington could be the next Friedman.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, of course, but since I happen to know a little bit about the Rays all I can tell you is, imo, there isn’t a prayer in the world Neal Huntington will ever become the next Andrew Friedman, but it has nothing to do with either man. Instead, it has to do with everyone below these men.
Friedman inherited a stocked system because Rays ownership mailed it in – whether on purpose or not – for so many years, Friedman inherited a minor league development system that some other clubs drool to have, and Friedman inherited a scouting system that has a lot of experience in the lower levels. For instance..
Huntington brought in Kyle Stark to manage his farm system and the only experience Stark had was in the front office at Cleveland but the Rays minor league director – Mitch Lukevics – was the Yankees farm director for seven years before taking the helm with the Rays in 1996. He was also a pro player, he was also a pitching coordinator with the White Sox for years, and he was also a pitching coach for the Rays. This man alone has more time in the pro game than Huntington and Stark – combined.. and probably times two. Stark was a virgin.
I can stop right there but I won’t – Lukevics brought in quality coordinator help over the years and has a staff of men that have a combined 160+ years in the game and all of them have been together as a team since at least 2003 that I remember – maybe even earlier. They even doubled up their main coordinators this year so they have two pitching, two hitting, and two fielding coordinators. In contrast, Kyle Stark hired a virgin in Troy Buckley who didn’t even last through his contract, Stark couldn’t, or didn’t, hire a replacement so one of Huntington’s special assistants now has a dual role as an SA and pitching coordinator (!!), we have an infield coordinator now who is a virgin, and so on, and so forth.
The difference between the Rays well-oiled minor league development system and the Pirates joke machine is equivalent to the difference between going to Harvard or going to your local junior college – it’s night and day, imo.
And THAT is why I want Huntington fired. It’s obvious he has too limited a network to draw pro help from and, as a result, we have a joke development system in place during a rebuild. It was fine while we grabbed the players if ownership was willing to forgo a talented evaluator and his peer network during the trades in favor of Frank Coonelly’s judgement, but it’s not fine moving forward. We have to put someone in charge that can draw from their network of friends in the game to put a butt-kicking development system together right now, or we’re never, ever going to climb out of the hole.
Forget comparing Huntington to another GM, especially with the Rays. You are comparing apples to oranges.
–
If anybody happens to go to the game Sunday and ends up with an extra McCutchen jersey, I’ll buy it from you for my son. Just e-mail me what you want for it – jake at new bucs dot com. Thanks.
–
Adam Revelette spent three days watching the West Virginia Power and his report is up at Bucs Prospects. Al Phillips spent a couple of days with the Indy Indians and I think you are going to be surprised by his report that will be up on Sunday. Anup Sinha will be catching the Marauders this coming week as well as taking in the Florida State League mid-season All-Star Game on the 12th, so enjoy!
Bryan Morris faced off against Kyle Drabek Saturday night and both pitchers did well as those are two good hitting clubs. From the Curve’s media department:
MANCHESTER, NH – The Altoona Curve bullpen came in to Saturday’s game with a collective ERA of 2.94 but were unable to hold a 3-1 lead as the New Hampshire Fisher Cats (AA – Toronto Blue Jays) came back to take the middle game of the series against the Curve with a 5-3 win on Saturday night at Merchantsauto.com Stadium.
Altoona (37-19) grabbed a 3-0 edge off Fisher Cats starter Kyle Drabek when they sent nine men to the plate against the son of the former Pirates’ ace in the second inning. Using three walks and a hit batsman in the inning, Altoona capitalized with a two-run single by Alex Presley and a bases loaded walk issued to Chase d’Arnaud.
That’s all Altoona would be able to muster offensively on Saturday, though it appeared to be enough. Curve starter Bryan Morris tossed a Double-A-high 6.0 innings in his fourth start since his promotion from Bradenton. Morris allowed just one run on two hits – fourth inning solo home run to Shawn Bowman. Morris struck out four batters and walked one.
New Hampshire (35-22) would rally against the relief duo of Jeff Sues and Michael Dubee.
Sues tossed only 0.1 inning in the seventh leaving the bases loaded before he departed and gave way to Dubee. New Hampshire knotted the score 3-3 when Manny Mayorson came through with a two-run single.
In the eighth, Dubee allowed four straight hits, the first three loaded the bases with no one out and the fourth by Adam Loewen scored a pair of runs that gave the ‘Cats a two-run lead, 5-3.
Altoona would bring the tying run to the plate in the ninth, but d’Arnaud struck out against closer Danny Farquhar to end the game.
The loss snaps a four-game winning streak for Altoona who will look to grab the rubber match of the three-game series on Sunday afternoon at 1:35 p.m. RHP Jared Hughes, the Eastern League wins leader (8-2, 3.75) will be opposed by former Curve reliever Ronald Uviedo (0-2, 2.96). Uviedo was a member of the Curve roster before being traded earlier in the week to the Toronto organization. Air time on flagship radio station ESPN Radio 1430, WVAM and Altoona Curve Radio Network affiliates is 1:05 p.m.
By Jake, on May 23, 2010, at 11:21 pm | 21 comments
After a week of giving away games with his glove, hitting little swinging bunts, and swinging at air, Doumit finally remembered how to square the ball up one day after John Russell was ejected and won a game with his bat. The game was tied in the 10th when he hit a shot to right. In the 6th he had hit a clutch two-out line drive to right to score Jones and wailed that ball too.. what was more amazing was that the pitch was well off the plate but he was able to get the bat on the ball and still hook it into right. An amazing feat considering Doumit’s weak swings lately, to say the least.
Maybe batting 7th for the first time in years had something to do with it?
Also in the 6th, McCutchen lined a shot into right center that Melky Cabrera took a horrible route to and the ball scooted past him to the wall. Once Cutch saw the ball hit the turf as he headed to first, he hit his afterburners thinking three all the way and made it, although the relay throw was close to beating him. That was the fastest I’ve ever seen Cutch run.
Duke pitched a good game.. he kept hitters off balanced, came in on them regularly, and was the beneficiary of a large strike zone by Tim Timmons – as was the Braves starter – which was a bit odd on a get away day for the umps. He gave up seven hits in the box but his defense was shoddy on a couple of those hits that should have been outs. One error was called – a high throw by Cedeno to Pearce which eventually came around to score.
But the bottom line remains that we have a putrid offense sputtering to press the clutch pedal down. We’ll get a few guys on here and there but inevitably strand them. That’s been the storyline for the last week or so. When we win, we typically win in groups of two or three and then quite a few games pass and we take a couple more. In our last ten games we’re 5-5 and half of those were on the road. Pretty impressive for a young club. But the sad part is, we could have been 7-3 had John Russell managed by the book.
Take a look at our offensive productivity by position so far this year (not including Sunday’s game):
That’s truly sad. Think about that a minute.. including the pitcher, five of nine guys we send to the box nearly every game have a one-in-five shot at getting a hit. If you are a starting pitcher in this league and can’t dominate this lineup, you don’t deserve to be in the majors. It’s that simple.
One of the funniest statistics I’ve heard thrown around the last week is that the Pirates are .500 or better when Morton doesn’t start. I haven’t looked to see if the claim is even true because it’s a totally useless correlation for this very reason:
When your team’s pythagorean win/loss record is 12-32 because your pitching has allowed 257 runs scored in just 44 games, while your team might be 19-25 on the books right now, you can bet your bank account that more losses than wins are headed your way over the remaining 118 games if you don’t find better pitching somewhere.
And don’t think for one minute it’s been better lately.. it hasn’t. Over the last 21 games we’ve been out scored by 30 runs and while we’re currently enjoying a 9-12 record in those games, mathematics tells us we’re going to win just one-third of our games down the road.. maybe less. We’ve been very, very lucky.
One area that has disseminated us has been defense. Look at the Pirates defensive runs saved by position:
That’s uglier than our offense. The only position with positive runs saved is shortstop. Now look at the top and you’ll see one reason why the Reds are winning ballgames.. they have positive numbers up the middle; look at the bottom and you’ll get an idea why the Cubs and Brewers are reeling. And if you think Ryan Doumit is only -2 defensive runs saved on the year, I have a bridge to sell you.
I love the fact we’re at where we’re at, but I have to look at reality too and reality says we’re really a crappy team and holding on by duct tape. There is no front office magic to the wins.. it doesn’t have anything to do with starting pitching.. we’ve simply run up against ice-cold teams or teams that turn ice-cold when they hit town while taking a breather. Trust me on this one – we have nothing in the dugout that can turn any team cold. Nothing.
Let’s look again at the numbers a month from now and see where we are then.
–
We’re off to play the Reds and I don’t really know what to expect. My gut says long games, high scores, and a lot of Jeff Karstens, but something is itching in my belly. Harang isn’t exactly throwing the ball well against good hitting teams (which doesn’t include us) and he isn’t exactly fond of throwing in his home park. On the flip side, the Reds aren’t crushing southpaws either but don’t let that fool you – their downside against southpaws is stronger than our per game average. They have been that strong with the bats.
We need to beat Harang because it’s all downhill for us from there. Leake, Arroyo, and Cueto have all figured things out their last few times out so all we can hope for is a let down because they are facing ‘the Pirates’ — will we see it? I’m not sure we will.. I have them taking three of four with our win coming Tuesday night.
–
Let’s see how the studs of our organization are doing lately:
Pedro Alvarez last ten games: 7 for 32 which is a .219 BA. Alvarez against southpaws: heading for the Mendoza line at .209.
Neil Walker last 9 games: 8 for 31 which is a .256 BA. Walker against southpaws: below the Mendoza line at .156 and sinking.
Tabata last 5 games: 4 for 16 which is a .250 BA. Tabata against southpaws: .237 and sinking fast too.
Gorkys Hernandez last 10 games: 6 for 35 which is a .171 BA. Hernandez against southpaws this year: a startling .430 OPS.
Robbie Grossman last ten games: 2 for 35 for an incredible .057 BA.
Tony Sanchez last 10 games: 8 for 35 for a .229 BA. Sanchez against southpaws: .216 and tanking like crazy. All this in A-ball, mind you. Think about that a second when you consider your first round draft choice for 2010.
Then there are some non-prospects making some noise and carrying the minor league system lately like Alex Presley and his .400 BA last ten, Eric Fryer at .324 BA last ten, and Jeremy Farrell with his .341 BA last ten. And then there is the (now) borderline prospect Shelby Ford who has gone .323 his last ten in what amounts to a platoon role.
Seems to me our hitting coordinator has taken the last couple of weeks off while the entire upper tier tanked. Pitching seems to be doing ok in the levels lately but not because they are studs by any means. BTW, has anyone even seen Benny (Jim Benedict – pitching coordinator) around lately?
–
You can listen to the Neal Huntington Show by clicking this link (Windows media). Nothing earth shattering was said.. in fact, the first three-quarters was very boring dribble which I’ll go into a little below. Toward the end I got the feeling he was sending a message to Lastings Milledge that his job isn’t threatened by Jose Tabata when he said Tabata needed to put consistent months together instead of weeks, much like he talked about with Neil Walker. He also mentioned what I told you a few days ago that Lincoln’s change is still work-in-progress and he’s not likely to succeed at the major league level as a two-pitch pitcher without it being at least an average offering.
Of everything he said, what I did like hearing was that he seems to be starting to take some responsibility for a poor evaluation of Iwamura last September. The recent hammy problem is one thing, the continued knee problem affecting his range and pivots and hitting is something entirely. I don’t get the feeling he’s going to give up on Aki anytime soon because he kept using his low batting average on balls in play as an example of why he should turn around, but that’s just nuts when the guy is in such poor health. It was a poor acquisition and the money could have been spent more wisely.
In the first part of the show he talked a bit excessively about development but I’m here to tell you he has significant development issues in his system. From field staff that seem they couldn’t care less, to players attitudes going south on him, to his entire development core failing to teach consistent fundamentals of the game. Those are my opinions from what I’ve seen, heard, and watched.
Huntington raged on and on about development staff coming aboard and taking roles below the major league level as if he was trying to talk someone into something they didn’t want to do. I go back to the fact he had a chance to hire quality old-school baseball instructors in the lower levels of his system but he decided to go another direction and I think it’s hurt him overall.
But what do I know.
–
It was announced today that Chris Sale will be throwing Wednesday in Nashville so Bucs Prospects have a pro scout who worked with the Dodgers there to give us one last evaluation.
Anup Sinha’s latest article: What Will the Bucs’ Strategy be for the 2010 Draft? is also up. The second round of coverage across our affiliates begins in a week and runs for most the month of June, and draft coverage is picking up as well, so you might want to keep checking in over there.
Lastly, I started Bucs Prospects with the simple goal of providing the fans with quality professional opinions on the talent and performance in our minor league system. The site just turned two months old a couple of days ago and I can’t tell you how well the concept has been received in the game, although some within the Pirates haven’t exactly been happy campers.
That said, we’ve already had one deep look at each of the affiliates below 3A this year and we’ll be doing our second deep look in June while also taking a peek at the short-season team during the month. Later in June or early July, the plan is to spend a little time in Bradenton looking over the GCL club and new draft picks that happen to be in camp as well. We haven’t spent much time in 3A because the future of the Pirates, to be quite blunt, doesn’t depend on Alvarez, Lincoln, and Tabata.. it depends on the growth and development of their supporting staff. So, 2010 is all about getting baseline readings on the players below 3A for that purpose.
There are numerous changes in the wings for Bucs Prospects. For one, currently under development is a unified player database which will allow you to immediately drill down to the scouting reports of any player scouted in our system. While the articles you read at Bucs Prospects contain some information on the players, the database contains all the scouting reports filed internally you haven’t seen which hold evaluations on tools, projectability, and many other factors.. not only on our players, but players from other teams scouted too.
Another major change currently in the works is that I will be stepping down as the driving force behind the site and handing the concept to an editorial staff and an executive general manager (a rabid Pirates fan, by the way). You will find numerous new scouts being added to the site over the next couple of months – all of them have either played or scouted professionally, another editor to assist Anup Sinha, and the executive general manager who will help guide the editorial staff to the next level. More on those announcements over the next couple of weeks.
It had been my practice to post advance knowledge of our next stop in coverage but I’m no longer going to be alerting anyone. In fact, in a couple of weeks I may not even know myself until an article hits the site.
So stay tuned!
–
Whoa.. I got smoked in one of my fantasy leagues last week (now 4-3.. the one I wasn’t around to draft in.. live and learn) and won in the other two. I’m now 7-0 in B&G3 which is simply amazing considering how stacked some of the other teams are, and in the other league I’m 5-2.
By Jake, on May 18, 2010, at 11:18 pm | 22 comments
I mentioned the other night that if you wanted to take a long, long shot bet of the year, this game was the time to do it and it certainly paid off with at least $155 returned on every $100 you wagered. If you made some money, you can click the “Donate” button in the right sidebar and tithe to ole’ Jake. LOL
Zach Duke – what a great game he pitched. The weather played in his favor with a strong wind blowing straight in and 40 degree temps, but still, he came after batters even when behind and forced them to do something with his pitches. Only Ryan Howard was able to do much with him as he dunked a couple of hits over our shift even with Young playing ten steps or more deep on the grass. Howard had three of the Phillies six hits.
The scoring started in the second when Doumit hit a little dunker into left for a double and LaRoche doubled on a fastball left up and away into the right field corner scoring Doumit. Duke had faced the minimum through four when Howard singled to right, Werth singled, Francisco struckout, Ruiz walked to load the bases, and Castro hit a soft line drive into center that scored Howard in the fifth. On the play, McCutchen threw out Werth at the plate.
The Bucs immediately responded in the sixth when Milledge singled on a soft grounder to Rollins that he had to eat, McCutchen ground out to deep second allowing Milledge to get to second, and then Jones hit a seeing eye ground ball through the right side and Milledge tried to score. Werth threw a bullet to the plate but Ruiz dropped the throw and Milledge was safe. On replay it appeared that Milledge beat the tag even if Ruiz had held on to the ball.
So the Bucs were up 2-1 and out came Meek. After a bunt single, Meek got two quick outs, and then Howard singled again, and Meek walked Werth. With the bases loaded and two outs, Victorino ground out to Young to end the threat. Whew.
The Bucs threatened again in the 8th with men at first and third and one out, but Church hit into a double play to end that opportunity.
After Meek’s excitement, Hanrahan and Dotel shut the door on the Phillies with six up, and six down in the 8th and 9th and the Pirates finally won their first road series since August 2007 when we took 5 of 7 against the Rockies and Astros. Can you believe it’s been that long? Wow. Ok, it was only a five-game road set, but still.
We head home having played .500 ball over the last 20 games. Think about that a minute.
–
The Brewers are up first and they have lost their last eight despite playing some good baseball. That’s a concern because they are a better team than that. I mentioned earlier this year that it seemed we would see a reversal in the way we win or lose with the Brewers this year – we’ll look better at their park, and the Brewers will look better at PNC, and so far it’s played out that way.
Essentially you have a very frustrated team coming in who was mentally crushed on get-away day when their closer – Trevor Hoffman – couldn’t record an out in the 9th with a 4-2 lead, and the Reds beat them. They are going to want to get back on track and they are throwing Randy Wolf at us who is always tough. We counter with Burres who has been lights out his last three starts.. 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA despite being mostly inefficient. One good thing for the Bucs is that PNC mauler, Jim Edmonds, was put on the DL today. Carlos Gomez is also on the DL too.
The key to this series is to get to the overworked Brewers pen as early as possible. Of the relievers available for Wednesday night’s game, in their last 3 they have thrown 14 innings, allowed 31 hits and 26 runs, and have a bruising 16.71 ERA. Their pen as a whole has a 6.29 ERA on the year. But don’t discount the Brewers bats, while they haven’t exactly been thrashing the ball lately, they have been hitting the ball hard but a bit unlucky.
The Bucs, on the other hand, have some payback in mind for the 36-1 romp the Brewers put on them the last time the two teams met at PNC. There were so many batters hit and bad blood between the two teams, I believe you can expect a little more cocky play by the Bucs this time around.
It’s a series between two teams playing poor baseball their last ten games. The edge goes to the Brewers in game one and the Bucs in game two with Maholm. But that’s the edge.. I think we’re going to see the Brewers light us up again both games myself. Can we score enough runs late to make a difference??
–
What’s with all the Keith Law hate? Today he posted his top 25 MLB prospects and I immediately started receiving e-mails about how Law is a Pirates hater, he doesn’t know what he is doing, and so on and so forth, all because Pedro Alvarez wasn’t listed.
What part of average do you not understand? Alvarez only has a .284 average on balls in play, he’s only hitting .220 against southpaws, and he’s carrying around a 27% strike out rate. Considering some of the weaker pitching he’s been facing this year, that’s not very impressive at all. Now I agree he’s starting to put things together a bit better so far this month, but the reports I’ve received on him indicate he still looks lost at the plate and his defense is hardly plus-plus. Not only that but, if you take Alvarez out of the hitting friendly environment in Indianapolis, he’s hitting very poor.. it’s either a home run or an out in most cases.
I agree with Law – right now Alvarez isn’t one of the top 25 prospects in the game. Not even close.
Don’t confuse projection with production in Law’s work - until Alvarez starts putting things together on a consistent basis, projection is just another ten-letter word like feebleness or ineptitude.
–
Lots of e-mail about the PBC blog and how the Post-Gazette is ruining everyone’s experience. Come on, give them some time to get things under control. As I told another reader, I’m not fond of the Joomula software they are using but they will probably figure all that out in due time.
BTW, I’m guessing Jerry Micro at the Post-Gazette finally gave ground to the Pirates as Finder will be covering the Pirates draft this year, one reader just told me. I’m guessing there will be a follow-up message over there about how Dejan will need to be used for something else, but there are some in the Pirates organization who take an exception to Dejan much like they do with my writing here.
I feel sorry for Dejan as he seems to be being used for target practice – he’s only been doing his job reporting what he sees and hears, but that’s a story for another day. A very long and — as developing – ugly story.
–
Speaking of targets, Bucs Prospects will have an article up Wednesday on the Power’s doubleheader Tuesday. Be sure to check it out as they were one-hit in the second game. What are the odds of two affiliates of one organization being one-hit in one day? It happened Tuesday as the Curve fell victim too.
Also, statistician Dwight Gill will be revealing the first part of his new defensive metric in an article tomorrow. I can’t wait to see it myself.
By Jake, on May 5, 2010, at 10:56 pm | 24 comments
Wait a minute.. I had to take a business phone call after Lilly loaded the bases in the fourth and I came back to find the game over and the win. That means we’ve taken the series from the Flubs Cubs. Not only taken the series, but we beat their ace and have a chance at a sweep if we take down their #2.
I’m not about to get cocky and start laughing my butt off, but come on.. the Cubs have more tools in that dugout than we have in our entire system (not exactly, but you get the idea) — how could they possibly lose to us? Hilarious.. if I’m Tom Ricketts, I’d be looking to bounce some heads to get things turned around in a hurry.
Unbelievable.
I had expected the Cubs to enter the series flat but I never thought in my wildest imagination they would play so uninspired. They are listless.. unemotional.. running on fumes. Lilly looked horrid early on.. he couldn’t command anything he threw and was throwing batting practice watermelons while I watched.
Charlie Morton, on the other hand, looked a bit smoother tonight and started throwing his slider a lot more (27% of all pitches) as I mentioned the other day I thought he would. In fact, not one slider went for a hit. His key in this game? Command of his offspeed pitches. Look at his charts below courtesy of Inside Edge scouting service:
That’s a heap of offspeed pitches to right hand batters — 59% of all he threw, to be exact. Incredibly, he opened 60% of all right hand batters with a first pitch slider and two-thirds of those went for strikes. Now look how many of them were meatballs, albeit we know most of his stuff runs plus to plus-plus outside his change. Now look at Morton’s fastball to left hand batters – yikes! He was up in the zone all night but the Cubs did nothing with the pitches.
Again, I didn’t watch but 4 innings of work but what I did see, combined with the report above, tells me that the only reason he was successful was because Cubs batters were so poor. He was very hittable this evening (just 7 swing and misses all night long) – he just didn’t get hit. Partially because he got ahead in the count early and forced them to hit his pitch, and partially because Cubs batters were lost in space.
Good outing for Charlie and good plan for Kerrigan. They eliminated the fastball tipping controversy by forcing him to throw first pitch offspeed and then hammering Cubs batters with softer stuff with a lot of movement all night long. I love the plan. I’m not sure it’s going to work against better hitting clubs in the groove, but it sure worked Wednesday night.
That’s two solid wins against a very flat team. I only wish it was us causing them to be flat. Burres Thursday just might throw a no-no they way the Cubs look right now.
–
I was a bit concerned reading about Bryan Morris by pro scout Anup Sinha at Bucs Prospects yesterday:
“The other weakness is his change-up, which Morris almost never throws. He may average three or four a game; it’s hardly ever called and like the art of holding baserunners, working with a change-up doesn’t seem to be emphasized at this level by the Pirates player development.
While one might argue that his 0.76 ERA is evidence Morris doesn’t need a change-up, I would counter that’s exactly why he should be working on it in Bradenton. Morris can afford to make mistakes here because he’s so dominant and this would have been a great time and place to figure it out.”
That’s the second scout who has talked about a lack of use of a change up in A ball or higher in our system. That’s not the norm in development – most all teams preach development of the pitch starting in rookie ball as Sinha noted. I understand the desire to force feed fastball command in the lower levels, but these kids also have to learn how to get batters out. We’ll have to watch how this plays out over the season because I can’t say the Bucs development plan doesn’t make sense just yet, but it sure seems to have a gaping hole in one obvious regard right now.
Also up at Bucs Prospects is pro scout Bob Smith’s report on Tim Alderson and Rudy Owen’s starts. It’s a must read.
By Jake, on January 11, 2010, at 12:09 am | 28 comments
Before I begin, make sure you have read Chuck Finder’s article in the Sunday Post-Gazette then come back and read the rest of this post.
First let me say that I laughed so hard reading that piece that I was crying by the time I finished. It was so whacked, so out there, it was that hilarious to me. Outside of The Goose and Michael Keaton blasting ownership in the last decade, nothing written or verbal comes remotely close defining the problems of the Pittsburgh Pirates. And I mean nothing.
The Cardinals ponied up $120M for seven-years of Matt Holliday as a free agent.
I’m betting most of you didn’t feel the irony in Finder’s work as I did. That’s understandable because the average fan has only heard whispers about “the why” from media, and that was from an out-of-town writer at a small newspaper you probably didn’t even read. Nor are you likely to hear about “the why” any time soon from local media because it’s a subject that has seemingly grown censorship roots. But it’s real, it exists, it’s growing, and anyone close to the inside around the Pirates – including media – surely knows it is laughed talked about by others around the game.
The Brewers spent $37M free agent dollars on a three-year deal with Randy Wolf and a two-year deal with LaTroy Hawkins, three years after spending $66M on Suppan and Hall. They also spent considerable dollars to bring in Pete Peterson as their pitching coach.
No, the only place you probably heard about “the why” was right here and I’d guess most of you read it in passing and never thought another thing about it.. until you heard me bring it up again. And again. And again. Even then it probably didn’t resonate very far with you. But I’m guessing it will now.
Finder basically wrote a research piece which we see in local Pittsburgh Pirates coverage only a few times a year any more. In the article he interviewed Dr. Bernie Holliday who was just hired as the Pirates mental-conditioning coordinator.
The Astros spent $25M on Brandon Lyon, Pedro Feliz, and Brett Meyers this winter.
Holliday mentioned in the article that he could use workshops, simulations, on-field exercises, videos and MP3 audios personalized to each player, attention-control technology and biofeedback analysis in his work with the young men in our system.
Here’s a quick video showing one of the West Point routines that might be deployed:
Finder continued: “The techniques cover a variety of mental skill sets: from adaptation to analysis, from energy management to establishment of a purpose, from preparation to perseverance, from self-awareness to self-regulation.. [It] is a long-term, multifaceted, intensified regimen.”
“I want the guys to have [goals] in mind worth pursuing so much that the very thought of it happening sends a chill down their spines,” Dr. Holliday said. “When this happens, we’re on the right track.
Isn’t this just another name for brainwashing? Or maybe we should be more polite and call it coercive persuasion, or thought reform, or the manipulation of psychological and social influence?
Maybe it’s better to just call it mind control.
Unquestionably it’s cult-like which has been refered to as “a process (<== note: key word in Neal Huntington’s lingo) in which a group or individual systematically uses unethically manipulative methods to persuade others to conform to the wishes of the manipulator(s), often to the detriment of the person being manipulated.”
Scott Snair points out in his West Point Leadership Lessons: Duty, Honor And Other Management Principles book: “the delegating of tasks replaced the need for the daily morning meeting.. Finally, since cadets rarely found the time to form groups larger than two, there was little danger of ‘groupthink,’ the conference-room condition where awful ideas take over a group and everyone buys into them in the name of conformity” – what Huntington calls the “culture” of losing.
The Cubs spent $22.5M on Marlon Byrd and John Grabow and also paid a hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo the most money in the game.
In the American Psychological Association’sReport of the APA Task Force on Deceptive and Indirect Techniques of Persuasion and Control, they talked extensively about cults and large group awareness trainings and discussed in their recommended public policy:
Young people, however, do not seek to be manipulated and deceived. They may long for an easy way to fulfill painful needs. But, except perhaps in certain pathological cases, they do not want to be the objects of “mind games.” Therefore, preventive efforts aimed at teaching them how “mind games” work may have much potential.
That reminds me of one sunny Florida spring training day not too long ago when one of the Pirates coaches mentioned to me that he was amazed how much younger the prospects seemed to be getting. He turned around and looked me in the eye and then said something to the effect of: “We have kids here who aren’t even shaving yet.” He wasn’t making a joke – he was concerned.
The Reds just spent $30M signing Aroldis Chapman to a five-year deal.
I understand most of you aren’t going to believe the Pirates are creating a force-fed military cult in their minor league system. That’s understandable. But I’ve told you the stories — a locker being placed in the center of the room like a throne and the players being told where their belongings must go, I’ve told you horror stories like how one prospect was approached on the mound in Bradenton and basically told he was a worthless piece of crap, and I’ve told you how I’ve been approached by numerous folks in and around the organization the last few years who were concerned about what was going on.
Finder’s article continued:
Kyle Stark.. last year instituted changes through the minor-league system — ranging from curfews to an on-field dress code — and sought an in-house, consistent system. His conclusion: a military approach. In his research, he came across the Army program that started with sports and cadets, then moved to soldiers before and after active duty.
I ask you, is there a point where the Pirates demands on their youth are too excessive? At what point are we just being ridiculous?
“We are relaxing some rules. Our approach is to allow our youth to be young men, not in forcing them to be something they aren’t. We determined that was counterproductive to our goals.” — anonymous executive
Is there a point all this “manhandling” backfires? For instance, is it possible future talent like Sano and Chapman will automatically refuse to sign with this organization because of what appears to be a psychotic obsession with rigid discipline as opposed to baseball development? I mean, throw that gem on top of the fact we’re a losing organization to boot.
And what about future first year player draft talent? Are they going to feel comfortable signing? Don’t be too quick with your answer. More from Finder’s article:
Mr. Stark said of the two-pronged strategy to develop players as men and as mentally-sturdy athletes, “We went off the radar here. We have to be creative” given the Pirates’ market size, not to mention the 17-year streak of losing seasons.
In my humble opinion, Stark’s “two-prong strategy” is only going to piss off the kids in the system more than they already are and, in turn, create another wave of culture shocked players with an attitude toward this organization. Our problems began decades ago when we refused to pony up for talent and the only possible answer to that problem is to either build robots or zombies. Or infuse cash.
The Pirates spent $1.8M on Bobby Crosby and Javier Lopez.
Until this organization starts spending money on true talent, we’re never going to be competitive because you simply can’t turn average ball players into five-tool talent with mental voodoo, holistic yaya, or cult’ish coercion. I don’t doubt for a second Stark’s program will build better men of our prospects, but there isn’t a stat in the game that suggests better men equate to more wins.
By Jake, on December 26, 2009, at 10:24 pm | 41 comments
I’ve spent a considerable amount of my offseason time researching our current player development system by talking to a significant number of people.
The ‘big picture’ I walked away with is this..
.. we have just as much confusion, discord, and lack of continuity and communication as we had two years ago under Dave Littlefield, if not more.
Here is a sampling of my research findings:
– the players either love or hate the current system.. oddly, I found little middle ground;
– we have young pitchers who are so fed up they may prefer to walk away than remain in the system;
– we have position players who believe they aren’t getting the help they deserve;
– animosity remains a constant factor between many Littlefield and Huntington draftees; and
– we still have staff up in arms over the system’s processes who can’t wait for their contracts to expire.
Now don’t walk away thinking that everyone is unhappy or that the system is in chaos because that wouldn’t be accurate. For instance, if you talk to any of the out-of-baseball working men who were hired back into the game to become a part of Stark’s new regime, they will probably tell you they have never seen such a well oiled machine. Or if you talk to any of the young prospects or their families who were handed hundreds of thousands of dollars or more in the draft to come play baseball, they will probably also tell you they love what they have seen so far and they are very excited. But when you dig into the core and get away from the fluff, you’re likely to find a completely different picture.
Realize too that my research is potentially biased because of who was willing to talk up. After all, I’m better known for being an organizational watchdog of sorts so people who are dissatisfied in one way or another were more likely to come to the surface.
But the fact remains, we still have numerous problems with the most glaring being continuity.
One of the biggest system-wide disappointments comes in the area of player plans. In two of the past three winters under Neal Huntington’s control, offseason pitching plans have been done for all the young minor league pitchers in the system either by a plan writer who had never even laid eyes on many of the players (Jeff Andrews in 2007) or the writer was raw and inexperienced (ex-Cleveland operations intern Kyle Stark in 2009 with help from a newly hired pitching coordinator). In the third year the plans were written by ex-coordinator Troy Buckley who, as we know, walked away from his position with the Pirates in-season several months later.
If you are keeping track, that’s four different plan writers over the last four years.
Obviously these plans aren’t the Holy Grail for young pitchers but they do go a long way in assisting the players and letting them know where they stand. As a position player, Andrew McCutchen was one of the first to criticize the lack of communication and organization in Huntington’s player plans during the winter of 2007 and he has been joined since by a significant number of players. As I mentioned above, some players have been left so much in the dark they are considering just walking away, the frustration level is that high. And make no mistake about this, these aren’t the ‘problem childs’ of the system who are the only ones concerned – its widespread.
Another area that needs attention is staff credibility in our system. A standing joke amongst some of the prospects is that two stops on the affiliate trail are ’dead ends’ because of the staff in place there. And it’s not just players who feel that way – even fans have written or talked to me about the same problem.
Lastly, it seems to me the exact same problem that plagues the organization in the major league arena also plagues the minor league player development system – lack of quality communication. Some have said they felt that Neal Huntington is unapproachable and now I’m hearing the exact same thing about Kyle Stark. It’s not that there isn’t communication because there is. Lots of it. But it appears to be one-way communication.. management to their hires or charges and little receiving.
No player development system is perfect or every organization would be a clone of it. And unquestionably we still have some prospects in the system who are self-defeating and dragging the system down — it was easy for Huntington to purge problems from the major league clubhouse but it’s not that easy with young men as prospects. Kyle Stark has done a good job implementing layers of accountability but there appears to be too little follow through. Plus, these are young men we are training to become ballplayers, not soldiers going to war. At some point Stark and Huntington need to ask themselves if their domination is because of the desire to turn around the system, or instead because they fear failure so badly?
That being said, we’ve moved forward in a few areas and taken steps backwards in others which might be expected, but we’re on our last leg with credibility – we have to hire better quality baseball instructors, we have to halt the turnover, and we have to implement better processes in communication. If we don’t, then every dollar we’ve spent on the draft the last few years will go up in smoke over the next three years.
Now is the time and it starts with this:
One of the most important decisions the Pirates have to make this winter involves replacing pitching coordinator Troy Buckley because we are heavily relying on young pitching to move this organization forward and their professional development is essential to that goal.
When the season ended there were some outstanding names available who could have helped in this mission such as Rick Peterson, Jeff Jones, Bryan Price, Carl Willis, and even Leo Mazzone. Obviously some of those men might not have considered a development role with the Pirates but who knows when you come calling with stupid money and/or a great PD plan? The Pirates obviously are having some trouble closing a deal with one of their coordinators since they have twice postponed their hiring announcement, but when they do I’ll dig up what I can on the hires and we’ll see if they add or subtract from the above goal.
Here’s my Top Ten Prospects for the 2010 season:
1. Pedro Alvarez. How ironic is it that internally the Pirates executives talk excessively about competing by the 2011 season yet hinge that on a player who is 0wn3d by Frank ‘I want to be Commissioner in 2011″ Coonelly’s soul mate Scott Boras? If that doesn’t spell disaster-a-brewin’ in the only city in America which imposes a payroll tax on non-resident baseball players, then also consider Alvarez’s immature holdout after being drafted which labeled him a softie. Does he pull a ‘Benson’ in 2010 keeping him down-and-out for 2011, or doesn’t he? Go look up the word ‘culture’ in your dictionary and stay tuned.
2. Brad Lincoln. The talent gap in the system between first-tier prospect Alvarez and second-tier start with Lincoln is pronounced but at the end of the day, I wonder if Lincoln doesn’t leave Pittsburgh with more playing time and better numbers? Lincoln’s plus-heat, pinpoint control, knee-buckling 12-to-6 hook, and ability to throw under the chins of batters on both sides of the plate, is exactly what the Pirates need. The Pirates need him to dominate in spring training and his first thirty-one days in 3A to earn a quick call up.
3. Jose Tabata. He’s probably the Bucs #2 prospect if you look at raw tools but he doesn’t have the power projection to play a corner and he doesn’t have the defensive wherewithal to play center rendering him useful as a solid fourth outfielder long-term. But since this is the Pirates whose owners care more about new ski lifts than Pirates wins, he’ll play left field regardless and the fans will continue to hear GM fish tales like ‘some of our players underperformed’ while the team struggles to score 700 runs every year as a result. In most other systems he would be trade bait (oh wait, he was).
Pick the next six out of a hat. This is where the system starts to crowd up with the average guys who either have projection or tools but need to stand out another year or two before anyone can really get excited about them. The problem is, we’ve been saying this same thing about our player development system with this class of player every year for the last decade and that remains true in 2010.
Edit 1/18/10: 3a. Bryan Morris. I just plain screwed up not having Morris in my intial list (my excuse: the dog ate his index card!). Last year I said he probably deserved to be listed as the best prospect in our entire system but this year he’s fallen a tier because of non-production and makeup concerns. His stuff is A++ — and always will be — but it’s starting to look more-and-more like he’s going to be another member of the Pirates self-serving culture brigade. I’m giving him one more year to man up.
4. Tony Sanchez. It’s hard to pass up Tim Alderson here but I’m not in the camp that puts much faith in him. Sanchez has at least demonstrated some ability so far and since the Pirates are spending more time with him than any prospect perhaps in the last five years, he better show up or else we are in worse shape than anyone can possibly believe. He’ll be rushed to Pittsburgh way too early which will derail what little bat he’ll bring and probably kill his defensive skill set too, but for 2010 he deserves to be right here and start in Altoona.
5. Quinton Miller. This kid ‘gits it’ and even the Pirates player development system can’t hold him back. Well, unless they break his arm, that is. 2010 is a defining year in this young man’s growth and I think he’ll take a bit of a ‘maturity’ hit early but come roaring back strong.
6. Justin Wilson. This is where I think the third-tier begins. Something about this southpaw gets me going – he’s as wild as Oliver Perez at times but from the little I saw of him on video last year, and some scouts opinions, I think he’s starting to harness it. If he does, he could end up a solid middle of the rotation starter in a couple of years. If he doesn’t, we’re likely to find out this year at Altoona. For now I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt much like I did with Donnie Veal on this list last year. Don’t be too surprised if Veal and Wilson open at Altoona together with Sanchez catching them.
7. Brooks Pounders. This is one of my picks where I reached over other talent to dig out a young man I think will excel in 2010. If he can continue to build on his 93 mph fastball, continue to develop his three other offerings, and keep his arm attached, I think he becomes the ’Rudy Owens breakout player of the year’ in 2010. I should also add that this is one young man I am very concerned about his injury risk in 2010.
8. Tim Alderson. He has to be listed somewhere so I guess this is the right place. I didn’t see any of his games in 2009, didn’t watch one frame of video on him, nor did I ask one scout this winter about him. I just didn’t like his scouting reports during his junior year of high school, nor did I like his ’07 reports, so I guess I just don’t like him. But here he is because those who have seen him believe in him. Don’t be too surprised if you wonder where he went two years from now.
9.Matt McSwain. The guy nobody wants to believe in but me. I think this will be the year his velocity finally comes back to the 94+ range since his TJ surgery and, coupled with his pitchability lessons learned the last two years, will finally be able to put it all together and take it to the next level. I expect him to open in Altoona with Veal and Wilson but the problem is he’s a Dave Littlefield draftee which means he’s likely headed for a reduced role. I think that would be a huge mistake and should be given at least 15 – 20 starts this year to see if he’s the real thing.
10. Sterling Marte. Take your pick here – fourth outfielder types like Gorkys Hernandez and Marte, 2009 breakout candidate and another Littlefield draftee in Rudy Owens, one-inning Huntington draftee in Zach von Rosenberg, the overhyped like Chase D’Arnaud or Robby Grossman, projectable guys not on track yet like Wesley Freeman, or any number of the 2009 high school pitchers like Colton Cain or Zach Dodson. They all run together.
Notes:
I rank Shelby Ford as my 6th best prospect (7th if Clement was added) because I want to believe his limited production in 2009 was the result of sustained injuries. I haven’t had the chance to talk with him and the Pirates won’t budge on the subject so until I find out more, I’m leaving him off since he tanked so hard. I just hope he isn’t another casualty of the Littlefield vs. Huntington draftees war but I’m starting to wonder.
I left Neil Walker off this list but I’m still high on his bat and think the young man has a career ahead of him, perhaps as a backup catcher if the Pirates ever allow him that chance again.
I also left off Jeff Clement because I don’t consider him a prospect. Anybody who has read my blog over the last three years knows I’ve always been in Clement’s corner and would have ranked him 4th on this list overall. But he has some work to do in 2010.
By Jake, on October 24, 2009, at 1:06 am | 4 comments
UPDATED.
The name of the game is scoring more runs than you give up because that’s how you win baseball games.
Neal Huntington can take credit for at least one positive in the Pirates system in 2009 - the ratio of runs allowed to runs scored was reduced from near franchise high levels in 2008 at every level. Some might call that a remarkable job, all thing considered. Others wonder how the heck he allowed the system to tank so far in 2008.
But, whatever..
In the chart below I simply took runs scored per 9 innings and subtracted runs allowed per nine innings to get the difference each year and then plotted it at each league level. ( team RS/9 – RA/9 = run diff )
It’s not a pretty sight. Not in 2007, not in 2008, and certainly not in 2009. Big picture? If we are moving forward in this regard, it’s at a snail’s pace. Considering we are a rebuilding club, you logically expected to see progression forward from 1A (many of Huntington’s first draft class) to High 1A between 2008 and 2009 and, sure enough, it’s there from a -1.3 run difference in 2008 at 1A to 0.1 run difference in 2009 in high 1A.
In fact, the 2009 high 1A positive run value difference is the first time that has been achieved in our system below 3A since Altoona in 2006 when a bunch of guys 26 – 30 years old you probably don’t remember the names of all seemed to have career years at the same time, and they rolled up a scant 4.2 runs allowed average per game type of year. This year at least the age of the players was appropriate for the league making it a legitimate honor even if they were absolutely blown out in the second half (28-42).
Still, kudos to Huntington, Stark, and their rovers and field staff – they made it happen at one hop. It’s a small win for the fans. Very small, but still there. Now the million dollar question looms – will it continue forward to 2A in 2010 and, more importantly, will we see additional movement forward?
Anyway, the sad part about that chart above is that it’s all negative numbers, has been in negative numbers for years, and remains in negative numbers today despite two solid drafts. In fact, the two years Huntington and Stark have been in control of the system have yielded the highest combined run deficit across this organization since Bonifay days. Part of it is explained off by the level of talent they took control of, but that doesn’t explain it all by far. There’s a lot of work to be done yet.. a lot of work.
As a fan, I need to start seeing each club consistently improve year-by-year against their division opponents. It’s that simple. One ‘elite talent’ in Alvarez won’t win us a division – it takes a whole team. 2010 is going to show us if this FO is improving the system. Not in words like ‘we’re stronger and deeper today than we were’ but whether those ‘deeper guys’ are getting it done in the trenches.
Or not.
——
Edit 10-24 at 1PM — lots of people e-mailed wondering how many of the other clubs were doing in the same leagues so I threw together a fast trendline chart to show you plotting only 1A, high 1A, and 2A runs scored minus runs allowed differences per team, per year.
Don’t look at the length of the trendline because it’s only determined by the number of affiliates that club has in the same leagues with the Pirates. Instead, look at the general direction of the trendline to get a feel for their system as each trendline starts at 2005 and runs through 2009. Not perfect science by any means but it does tend to show you how much better the talent is than in our system overall. Also notice the Pirates are at the very bottom, notice that only the Astros, Pirates, and Braves systems are not moving in an upward trend, notice the Nats have come out a major hole to being respectable, and look at the Giants and Yankees who always draft well behind us. That’s really embarrassing.
By Jake, on March 1, 2009, at 11:17 pm | Comments are closed
How ’bout dem Bucs.. tied for first after five games? Yaa-HOOOO!
Our pitching wasn’t pretty – walked seven, struck out just five — but our bats came through in the clutch. McLouth ripped a Miner fastball over the right field wall with a 20 mph wind aiding its flight and with two men on, Andy LaRoche picked up an rbi with a sac fly, and Sanchez’s single plated two.
Job done.
I think it’s about time to start focusing on how well we’re doing in the box against opposing starting pitchers because that’s the best spring barometer I know of.
11 IP
7 H
2 R
2 ER
4 BB
7 K
1 HR
That’s 1.6 runs per nine innings and as many strikeouts as hits (5.7 per nine). That’s not going to win many games. Obviously it’s way too early to put any stock in those numbers but it’s not a good trend to see.
–
Sounds like Phil Dumatrait may begin the year on the DL as he continues to work his arm back into shape. If so, that will open a roster spot.
–
I’m hearing the pitchers like throwing to Diaz over Jaramillo. It will be interesting to see if those feelings continue and if Russell rewards the young man’s work.
I’m also hearing a few players are very impressed with Shelby Ford’s game.
–
It’s going to be interesting to see how long the Bucs keep Jimmy Barthmaier in the big league camp while he’s having command problems. Personally I think this young man has the stuff to challenge Karstens and a few others for a slot but he doesn’t have the relationship with Kerrigan that Karstens does, and that may play a role. But I don’t think it should.
–
I hope they move McCutchen over to the minor league side of camp to clear his mind. Let him get rolling over there and then bring him back over to the big league camp.
–
Here’s an interesting article Sunday by Dejan on Kyle Stark’s implementation of a rigid discipline system in the minors that a few readers/parents have asked for my thoughts on.
If you’ve been reading Bucco Blog very long, then the theme probably didn’t surprise you very much because I outlined many of Stark’s ”fear of God” type processes and the fallout from them last year. Many of those issues were because need begets change which is typically fought off by the followers, or maybe better put, Stark had to take control and the resistance he encountered required a heavy fist.
While it is true I personally didn’t agree with a few of the tactics used by his employees, some of which I felt belittled his youthful charges, the players as a whole seemed to benefit overall and I guess that’s always the desired end result.
But make no mistake about this point which has been raised numerous times in the last week or so.. even though Stark has his own personnel in place now, including a commando unit of rovers and field staff, the players still have to buy into it all. From what I’m hearing today, that’s going to be a tougher nut to crack than Stark probably realizes.
On the surface the players can go through his drills, but for Stark to have a chance to change their hearts, Bob Nutting, Frank Coonelly, and Neal Huntington have to deliver a lot more to Stark in the form of tools, tools, and more tools.
Until that happens, the way Stark and his group goes about their business won’t make much of a difference and the kids and parents know that better than anyone.
–
Little ball? Nice article at the NY Times on how the players seem to be getting smaller.
–
Have you seen Bucco Blog’s newest contest yet? Click the CONTESTS! link in the navigation bar under the photo above or click this link.
By Jake, on January 14, 2009, at 11:31 pm | Comments are closed
Nearly every day I get an email that starts something like this: “Where are we going?” I used to answer those with a simple response - we’re rebuilding and it’s going to take time. But then I would typically get a reply saying something like “What do you mean rebuilding when we aren’t making any trades?”
Casual fans just don’t get it like hard-core fans do, but recent statements by Neal Huntington, Frank Coonelly, and unquestionably in Larry Corrigan’s radio interview the other day, are now confusing even the hard-core fans. So let’s take a look at the Pirates blueprint and see if that answers some of your questions.
Why the Pirates won’t admit to rebuilding
Because they aren’t, and they won’t be, at least not in the traditional sense. I finally realized this the other day when I was communicating with one of the Pirates top brass. After I hit the send button it dawned on me that my rational for thinking we were in a rebuilding mode was completely off base.
When we hear the term rebuilding as fans we immediately jump to the conclusion there will be a fire sale.. you know, dump everyone you can and reload with youthful prospects. In previous years with the Pirates and other franchises this was the case. But as I mentioned the other day, baseball’s landscape has changed dramatically the last 18 months and, while it might have been feasible to have a fire sale in December 2006, it’s nearly impossible to do that now.
Why? Because the value of toolsy youth has skyrocketed beyond reasonableness.
Three years ago a club could have wrestled a Carl Crawford type of player away from a team like the Rays by taking on his big contract and giving back one or two toolsy prospects, but that’s nearly impossible any more. Now an organization has to give up three or four 60+ score (out of 80) prospects PLUS eat the large contract. The days of the Yankees or Red Sox dealing their better draft picks for guys like Crawford are gone unless an organization virtually wipes out the top level of their farm system.
And it’s only going to get worse.
So if we’re not rebuilding per se, what are we doing?
I suppose that’s best answered by another “R” word – restructuring. First we saw this at the upper most levels of the organization when Kevin McClatchy stepped down and Bob Nutting took over. Nutting took a year to evaluate the system and consult with his peers and then made the decision to restructure the balance of the organization starting with the hiring of Frank Coonelly.
That was the biggest decision Nutting had and, while I think Coonelly was his man all along, I don’t believe it was for the reasons that garnered our attention as fans. Sure, Coonelly could help Nutting save a few dollars with his arbitration background, and sure, Nutting would probably benefit financially by having an ex-MLB guy take the reins, but I don’t think that’s the main reason why Coonelly was hired.
Instead, I believe he had a different vision on how to turn this organization around. We’ll call it “Frank’s Plan” from here on out.
Now I can’t speak for Coonelly because I haven’t even discussed this with him, and he’s free to leave us a comment below if he so desires, but we’ve all heard a few different media reports from credible sources that Huntington and Coonelly appear to be heading in different directions at times. I believe professional tension exists between the two parties but I don’t believe it’s anything to write home to mom about, nor do I think there is any infighting between them.
Instead, Neal Huntington wants to command the restructuring as any GM would but Frank Coonelly just isn’t willing to let go of those reins – thus the difference of opinion that sometimes is played out in the press. It’s not that Huntington and Coonelly are on different pages, it’s that Huntington wants traditional GM power and he doesn’t quite have it yet.
That’s also part of Frank’s Plan.
Traditional GM’s handle roster affairs and only go to the President or ownership for financial approvals. True, when a franchise player like a Jason Bay is possibly going to be dealt, that’s different. But day-to-day roster management is generally always handled exclusively by the GM without interference from the President or ownership except, as I said, for financial approval. (I hear some of the front office types across baseball laughing at that last comment because there are a lot of owners who meddle.. have faith – keep reading.)
But in Pittsburgh, Frank Coonelly has added another layer to Neal Huntington’s ability to manage his roster – trade approval. Maybe not in every case, but in most.
That’s also part of Frank’s Plan.
So now that the Pirates have taken two years to restructure the organization (January 2007 – January 2009) in what they ultimately called a culture change, we’re starting to see phase two of Franks Plan take root.
Surfing the waves
I’ve spoken here numerous times over the years about Jonah Keri’s fabulous article at Baseball Prospectus in 2002 called “The Success Cycle.” There Keri outlined exactly where Dave Littlefield’s plan differed from Cam Bonifay’s and why Littlefield appeared to be heading in the wrong direction in his.
To what extent Littlefield was his own problem over all those years isn’t at issue here. But notice how Frank’s Plan has so far paralleled Littlefield’s plan – dealing a couple of vets for some youth, locking up fan appealing players to longer term deals, and picking up a few pieces of worthy fruit here and there to help the current team.
But there’s one notable difference in Frank’s Plan than from either Bonifay’s or Littlefield’s.. holes are being filled and tradable youth and veterans are staying put.
It appears Frank’s Plan is to let the current wave of players - Wilson, Sanchez, Doumit, McLouth, and Adam LaRoche – remain in place regardless of the cost or resulting wins for one benefit Bonifay and Littlefield never seemed to understand or could afford.. full development of the next wave.
And based on what we’ve heard in the media from trade opportunities Neal Huntington has taken to Coonelly for approval the last two years that were ultimately shot down (Wilson times two, Bay to Cleveland, Maholm, Snell, Grabow, etc.), it appears Huntington doesn’t understand Frank’s Plan either. I mean, on the surface it doesn’t make a bit of sense just as Keri alluded to – either you commit to a full rebuild or you ultimately end up with a disaster.
But in reality it’s the first time in two decades anything our front office has done that does make sense.
Breaking down the blueprint on each wave
Frank’s Plan requires that current holes in Pittsburgh be filled first, then the next wave’s holes filled second, and then a third wave developed behind that as we saw by the selection of the risky but talented Bryan Morris in the Bay trade and the drafting of riskier high school products in Robbie Grossman and Quinton Miller.
The first wave can easily be defined as the current core group of Pirates that make up the 25-man roster. One theory why Wilson wasn’t dealt is because Frank’s Plan won’t allow a hole to go unfilled unless a reasonable youthful replacement is found, especially a critical position like the left side middle infield for the Bucs.
Huntington couldn’t find one so Wilson remains a Buc. And no, Frank’s Plan doesn’t allow a utility or below average player (perhaps as projected by the Pirates pro scouts?, although I do know Coonelly can break down players pretty good himself) to assume the duties unless that is the result after a trade is made which ultimately makes this organization better overall.
The second wave includes the balance of the 40-man not on the active roster plus just about anyone in 2A and up. But more specifically by each position: a hole at first base possibly filled by either Andy LaRoche or Pedro Alvarez with the other player remaining on the other corner, Shelby Ford at second, perhaps Brian Friday at short (though a bit early to declare him), Jose Tabata in left, Andrew McCutchen in center, perhaps Brandon Moss in right, and maybe Ryan Doumit catching the first couple of years of this wave, although I see a hole at this position myself.
That wave is scheduled to begin no later than 2011 and will probably also include starting pitchers Tom Gorzelanny and Paul Maholm (signed to five year deals in 2009?), any graduates of the Joe Kerrigan two-year school of pitching (Karstens, Ohlendorf, McCutchen, Lincoln, McSwain, Barthmaier, Beam, and Meek are likely candidates), plus any possible advanced top draft pick in 2009.
Then the third wave will start pushing to shore around 2014 – 2015 hopefully providing the depth needed for a consistent run in the division year-in and year-out.
Get it? Right, it’s actually very simple and exactly what Ed Creech/Dave Littlefield and Cam Bonifay/Mickey White were doing all their years but didn’t have the financial luxury to continue playing higher priced dead weight in Pittsburgh so the next wave could continue to develop.
The risks
Mickey White was no fool, and by most standards Ed Creech and his lowly paid foot soldiers didn’t do too bad a job either contrary to public opinion. Unfortunately, player development failed both men not to mention many of their riskier picks led to too many bad luck flameouts.
We’re still at risk for these types of drafting errors/problems because we have, by most accounts, too many unproven foot soldiers at the area level. As I was recently told, most clubs like to place area scouts with no less than three years of proven experience under their belts, but we’re not there yet in some important parts of the country.
Throw in the fact our scouting department took a significant hit several years ago when this organization had a hard time coughing up payroll for their scouts, and to say we lost ground from the associate scout level up from China to the US would be an understatement.
Frank Coonelly is doing what he can to try and change that sentiment in the industry with increased cash flow to the department, Neal Huntington is placing more emphasis on the voices in each region as evidenced by the last draft, and even little things like Coonelly passing out water on hot days to advance scouts working at PNC during the year is making a difference. Trust me, scouts are talking about all this.
But it’s going to take time.. it’s going to take a lot of time.. to alter the mindset of those foot soldiers in this game who are true difference makers we might like to employ by giving life changing money to, because they still won’t come.
As for player development, I covered that in December by basically saying that it’s nice we have weeded out the cultural problems, it’s nice that we have a new blueprint, and it’s nice that Stark is working passionately 24/7/365. That’s a huge start which will begin to show up more in the third wave than we’ll notice in the second wave.
But there are still glaring problems in PD.
For one, we seem to be hiring too many temporary stopgaps like quality field staff being hired on one year deals. That reduces productivity, reduces cohesiveness within the system, and continues the mentality that Pittsburgh is a place to hang out waiting for a better gig.
And two, Kyle Stark has handed way too much power to his rovers. If you read my blog you know I’ve touched on this during the last year and Stark is adamant his system’s approach is the best way, but in some folks eyes there’s already been too much damage inflicted both inside and outside the system with the power his rovers are commanding.
Typically when a rover visits a minor league team in most other organizations they listen to the field staff, do their work with the players and their plans, and then observe. They don’t take out bullhorns and take over like we’re seeing in our system. Perhaps this will be toned down some this year with the hiring of some more professional help 2A and up. We’ll have to see.
Lastly, as we all know it comes down to tools in this game and the Pirates have taken some positive steps forward trying to find that talent outside the draft like the new academy in the Dominican Republic and spending more time outside the US looking at potential talent.
Ultimately impact talent outside the draft is going to primarily come from trades so it’s up to Neal Huntington and his advisors to find that talent when the opportunity presents itself, and as well as Frank Coonelly’s willingness to let Huntington pull the trigger. So far Frank’s Plan has been to keep a light touch on the trigger, for better or for worse.
Conclusion
First and foremost don’t ever forget you are watching The Frank Coonelly Show here in Pittsburgh. Before Frank it was the Kevin McClatchy Show. From all the sources that I have reached, it appears the Nuttings are not, and never have been, involved in any micromanaging as I have suspected.
That being said, there are still a lot of holes in our processes as well as in the prospect waves building offshore, as noted above. While we have patched quite a few of the holes and this ship is back afloat, it’s only just treading water. As Keri noted, Frank’s Plan is risky in that he’s not selling a full rebuild like Branch Rickey did here in the 50′s, and if we’re at the same position in two years we were two years ago, it’s going to be a lot easier to see.
Plus, 2009 is a defining year for this franchise in many ways. If the Pirates draw 1.4 million fans or less and/or lose 100 games, ownership is going to be put in a precarious position as many needed revenue streams are all but sure to dry up until the next wave hits Pittsburgh.
Ownership knows that better than anyone and that’s why they handed the reins to Frank. It’s his baby, sink or swim, although this ownership is probably going to be very quick to pull the rug out if the ship starts to sink too much.
Stage three of Frank’s Plan? .500 baseball riding the surf year-in and year-out. I’m betting in his heart he wants it in 2011, will settle for 2012, but probably realizes his cycle begins in earnest in 2013.
Will that be too late? And will Frank’s Plan even work at all?
Good questions.. tough questions. On paper it all seems so simple.
I’ve spent a considerable amount of my offseason time researching our current player development system by talking to a significant number of people. 
