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Bucs building via draft? Tell me another one!

Eight days left in the Pledge Drive to keep the paywall down. You can read about it here and here.  So far $428 has been pledged toward our $1,000 goal.  Pledges can be made here.

Traveling tonight so short post. 

Q: I usually keep my hopes for the Pirates in check. I fully expect them to lose 100 games this year, if not their usual mid-90s. But I will be paying close attention to their minor- league clubs. .. Truthfully, I think its extremely difficult to build an entire team from within.

Bob Smizik:  I think you have the right approach, Nate. Low expectations for this season but increasingly higher ones in the years ahead. The Pirates have placed their bets on the amateur draft. It’s not a perfect way to build a team but it seems the only way they can do it. ..

The picture Smizik paints above shows, imo, one of the main problems the fans have in proper evaluation of the current regime.  Simply put, he’s content waiting for higher expectations in the years ahead as we build via the draft. No matter where you go to read about the Bucs and ‘the plan’ that’s the message you are hit with.

The problem with that mindset is that there is no accountability for the last two years.  For instance, the Nutting family has refused to infuse any of their own cash since 2007 to prop up our draft position during a full rebuild that Bob Nutting said he is the co-architect of. 

One way the Nuttings could have done that is by keeping Jason Bay through his contract years which would have resulted in two additional draft picks in 2010 from Bay walking out the door as a free agent. All things being equal, that would have provided us with the 36th and 57th picks in 2010 for an additional $10M or so paid to Bay.

Obviously that $10M infusion would have ultimately been reduced some from Bay’s market value (ie: suite sales, corporate sponsorships, ticket sales, etc, etc, etc) and then wiped out totally from future value received if just one of the two draft prospects contributed as expected – if the second one was a hit as well, then Nutting would have actually banked a considerable profit.  That assumes, of course, that Greg Smith and Neal Huntington properly identified, selected, and signed two solid players.

And perhaps that’s exactly the issue – maybe the Nuttings didn’t trust Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington and his staff enough to ultimately bring them that future profit? Instead of risking those personal funds (which we now know would have been at least been covered from the profit they stated the organization made in 2008 and 2009), they instead chose to dump Bay’s salary off the books. 

Now going back to Smizik’s assessment and fan perceptions.. are we really committed to rebuilding through the draft if we haven’t leveraged our draft position opportunities considering 12% of the 2009 Type A free agents (three in Gonzalez, Grabow, and Bay), and two of the Type B (Nady and LaRoche), had been under our control when the new regime took over?  By my count, that’s a potential for three additional first round picks or no less than three additional second round picks, plus no less than three first round sandwich picks but could be as high as five. 

Imagine that a second.. we could have had no less than eight selections before the 82cd pick overall this year and possibly as many as ten of the first 82.  Now THAT’s rebuilding through the draft folks.  And we could be supplementing that while rebuilding by bringing in ’better bets’ over the next few years in signing free agents with high Elias ranks and giving them stupid money one-year deals. We couldn’t lose because the value of free agent compensation far exceeds any stupid money paid out unless it’s $10M over true value received.

We’re not rebuilding by the draft – all we’re doing is spending as little as possible to get by.

Iwamura is evidently not 100% yet.  Not that we believe he ever will be during his stay with us, but that’s a story for another day.

Hilariously posted at Pirateball.com as if mocking Pirates ownership.

Joe Blanton will pitch against the Bucs in Bradenton when the Phillies come in March 6th. They aren’t wasting any time, although it will be interesting to see how many pitches Blanton actually throws. How ironic is it that Coonelly’s old buds send a right-handed soft tosser over to get lit up. Make sure you place your bets on that game.

“I feel like the most complete player I’ve ever been. I feel like I can be a threat on both sides of the ball. I’m excited to see what I can do.” — Lastings Milledge as said to MLB.com

I, I, I, I, I, I.. well, at least the I’s have it.

Nyjer Morgan, the good corporate guy – he learned fast in Pittsburgh.  Now he’ saying in Washington that there’s a “vibe” in the clubhouse that he didn’t feel in 2009.  You know, like we’re hearing about the Bucs in 2010, and we heard in 2009, and 2008, and 2007, and 2006, and..

You get the idea.

Now I wonder if that vibe he’s feeling is a good vibe, or a bad one because they only have three starters?

Ouch.

NYDN: MLBPA: Pirates “most blatant team” pocketing revenue sharing

(Edit 11:00 PM Sunday night:  No post Sunday eve as I’m working diligently on a followup to this post which I should have up Monday by dinner time.)

Bill Madden in Sunday’s New York Daily News:


“[T]he union is far from done pushing this revenue-sharing issue.  Next up: the Pirates, who have been the most blatant team of all when it comes to pocketing their revenue sharing, trading off all their highest-paid players and creating a mausoleum of their beautiful taxpayer-funded new park. ..

But have faith, Buc faithful. The players’ union is coming to your rescue.”

Madden’s article represents the first honest ray of sunshine I’ve seen as a Pirates fan since 2002.  I just hope he’s right. 

Dejan reported January 12th:  “I just communicated with a source outside the Pirates who confirmed that the Pirates are not a target for a similar push…”  Well, no matter which writer is correct, the fans win if for no other reason than we are getting press on the subject.  I tend to believe Coonelly and Nutting fought off their first challenge by releasing small amounts of their financial picture, but we’ll see.  We’ll see.  Plus I’m guessing Chuck Greenberg becoming an owner won’t hurt our cause either. 

Dang, I’m actually getting some goosebumps thinking about it all.  I mean, will the Nuttings run instead of fighting back or being forced to spend $65M?  I’m betting they would.  Maybe all these years of hammering these yo-yo’s here will finally pay off with a little prize? 

Never forget – We’re on a Mission From God.

Sounds like the bullpen has taken shape now that they inked Brendan Donnelly and Dotel is waiting in the wings for Huntington to clear a parking place.  Assuming they go with 13 in the pen, I suspect we’ll see:

Dotel closing
Hanrahan and Donnelly as bridge workers
Meek (bridge trainee), Lopez, Carrasco, and Jackson or Hart (either one have an option?) as middle relievers
Kartsens long

Rotation of:

Ohlendorf
Maholm
Morton
Duke
McCutchen

Not exactly the depth or talent that the Reds, Cubs, or Brewers have, or even the Astros for that matter, but the Cards are in trouble if they don’t find some pitching or money.

As for Donnelly’s deal at $1.5M with an extra $1.5M in incentives, unquestionably it’s nice to have a guy with his experience in the pen. That being said, his stuff hasn’t exactly returned to being crisp offerings. With the Marlins last year he had a nice ERA but when you look at video you see quite a few floaters.

Simply put: we paid too much for him if he gets anything near the $3M.  Actually, we paid way too much for him.. stupid money high.  Maybe we did that because Huntington and Kerrigan believe his split-finger will play better in the division? Or maybe there is a lot more concern about the health of both Hanrahan and Meek that we aren’t hearing about?  I don’t know, but I do know he doesn’t have $3M stuff – never had.. even to a team who couldn’t get anybody else to sign.

I’ll wait and see if Dotel signs before doing some model runs.

To my untrained eye, it looks like the coaching staff and Clement has plenty of work to do to turn him into an average first baseman by April 5, but the Pirates sound optimistic.

That’s Dejan talking

If Clement is dead set in his mind to remain a catcher, you would think he’d resist efforts to convert him to a first baseman. If Clement does resist, then it’s up to Russell and Huntington to “correct” that thinking which only leads us down the path to more of that counterculture stuff I was talking about the other day.  Along those lines, Huntington told Pirateball.com recently:

We want him to come into camp as a first baseman,” Huntington said. “If that doesn’t happen, then maybe we consider the possibility of him as a catcher, but that is not our priority right now.”  — emphasis New Bucs

I liked the fact Neal Huntington publicly gave the young man the benefit of the doubt.  He’s saying “Jeff, we respect you want to catch but we need you here for now and we trust you are going to work hard to help us meet that need.”  Considering the high number of head cases we’ve had on our roster dragging down morale the last few years, I think Huntington’s quote speaks volumes to Clement’s character.

Now it’s up to him — will he join the “dark side” or stand up and be a leader?  This is classical old/current Pirates culture vs new/desired Pirates culture.  Which one will win out?  It better be leadership or we might be destined for a lot longer period of culture problems in Pittsburgh.

Pirates tickets in high-demand!!?!  Imagine that.

Oh wait, both packages include tickets to either the Yankees or Red Sox games.  It only makes sense that our fans want to see some real baseball players.  Ok, ok.. I’ll stop.

It’s getting close to that special time of the year when we generally see extensions handed to the brass.  Don’t be too surprised if you see another two years handed to Huntington, but I’d feel better it’s only one.

Biertempfel: Pirates continue to borrow money

I think I’ve been fairly patient as a fan with the Pittsburgh Pirates ownership group the last few years.  I rallied behind the organization during the yellow t-shirt protests in 2006 because I felt the timing of the protest was wrong, I rallied behind the organization again in 2007 when yellow t-shirts gave way to key lime pie colored shirts in protest because they were unorganized and going to do more harm than good, and this winter I shot holes in another fan protest that was gathering steam.. again in the name of the organization.

Lately as I look across the Pirate Nation I see a mostly unhappy group who seem to be content that the ‘new regime’ are ‘doing the right things’.. ‘making decisions and sticking with them’.. ‘on the right track’.. ‘rebuilding the core foundation’.. etc, etc, etc.. and so I have purposely kept my whimpering low-key praying things were going to be different.  After all, Frank Coonelly was saying all the right things even though in my heart I felt we weren’t accomplishing much (see my blog posts the last two years).

Then today I pick up the Tribune-Review and read Rob Biertempfel’s article on the Pirates spending and found this buried nugget:

“According to data provided by the team, the Pirates since 2007 have spent more than $11 million on long-term capital improvements. The club also boosted scouting, the draft and international player signings by more than $10 million.

According to Coonelly, the Pirates have poured their operating profits back into the club and also “had to borrow very modestly,” which added to the team’s $100 million debt.”  (emphasis New Bucs)

Remember all those years ownership fed us “financial flexibility” stories while turning a “modest” annual profit by fielding a near worthless product?  Are we now supposed to believe that those funds vanished into thin air since ownership has made it clear for the last decade they don’t take dividends?  

So where did the money go? 

And according to Biertempfel, they just added even more debt to the $100M they already had.  How could that possibly be?  If the franchise is worth around $275M, thats a preposterous 36% debt load fifteen years after purchasing the franchise for $61M ($90M price tag minus the $29M owed to the URA they didn’t have to pay). 

And the Pirate Nation believes we’re headed in the right direction!?!  I’m sorry but it’s inconceivable to me that ownership will ever be in a financial position to be able to field a competitive club, and that’s putting it nicely.

I was so desperate to believe in a rebuilding process that I put blinders on the last few years hoping upon hope things would get better, but I have just taken them off since the Nuttings seem hell-bent on their own mission.  Bob Nutting, you win the Con Man of the Decade award in my book for allowing the fans to be fleeced as COB.

Robert Nutting, Con Man Award Winner

It looks like we need to start a nerdy mission of our own.

Update Monday January 4, 2010:

Andrew Zimbalist, Robert A. Woods Professor of Economics at Smith College who was recently hired by Major League Baseball as a consultant, just passed this note to me:

Jake, I am not sure how they could be adding to debt in last couple of years.  It doesn’t compute for me either, unless they are making substantial new investments in the ballpark.

As Erik first noted in the comments below and Dr. Zimbalist suggests, the added debt was most likely from long-term capital investments like the Latin academy.  Dejan actually broke the story first on December 7th when he said this in his article:

Coonelly.. [said] last week that the Pirates put all their profit in that span toward $11 million in baseball-related capital investments and, even then, needed to incur additional debt to cover the rest of the amount.

Those capital investments included a $5.4 million baseball academy in the Dominican Republic, $2 million toward the renovation of the Pirate City complex in Bradenton, Fla., and the recent purchase of a new Class A affiliate to play in Bradenton.  (Note by Jake – we later learned from Dejan that the price to purchase the Bradenton club was $3M).

Now follow along.. they had $10.4M in capital investments and less than $11M in profits.  Seems to me they pretty much wipe each other out.

So why borrow?

This isn’t making one bit of sense to anybody I ask and I finally see why Dejan was so excited over his December 7th article.

Finding hope from crumbs

In one of my recent posts I told you that I spent part of two days talking with ex-US Steel CEO David Roderick who had been associated with the Pirates in one form or another for decades through three ownership groups beginning in the seventies on John Galbreath’s board.

The man is a true legend in recent Pittsburgh Pirates history, and even a bigger legend in the city of Pittsburgh.  Bluntly put, if there is a more powerful person in Pittsburgh over the last half-century, or a more knowledgeable person about the Pirates over the last thirty years, I don’t know who it could possibly be. 

When Mr. Roderick spoke about the Galbreath family I could feel the love pouring out of his heart as he spoke. When Mr. Roderick spoke about the Pittsburgh Associates who bought out the Galbreath family, again I could feel the genuine care he had for the group and their mission. The same was even true when he spoke about Kevin McClatchy and his goals which he supported.

Then he stunned me when he said:

“The current group shouldn’t be owners.”

I swear it took me a minute or two to regroup after he said that.. my mouth went dry, my heart started racing wildly, and my brain instantly froze.  When I became capacitated again I listened intently to him recite his reasons why and nearly went into cardiac arrest by the time he finished.  All I wanted to do was to reach through the phone and hug the man for every fan who had felt the same pain I had felt watching this team recently.

As I held back my tears of joy, I rambled question after question at him and he gallantly answered each and every one of them.  Toward the end of our conversation it dawned on my inexperienced journalistic mind that his intentions were for the city he cherished with all his heart, and to the organization he loved so dearly.  The Nuttings weren’t the target of his discontent — their business model was.  A model he was none to happy with.

I told you this simple story because I personally walked away with newfound hope knowing a person with his credentials was as concerned as I was as a fan.  No, it won’t equate to more wins in 2010, I’ll grant you that.  But his passion is so profound and his connections so deep, others are sure to listen to him and that’s all I can ask for as a fan in things I can’t control.  I pray you walk away with that same sliver of hope I did.

ESPN 1050 is reporting the Mets have signed Bengie Molina and that, ladies and gentlemen, starts the clock on a possible Ryan Doumit trade.  I assume it’s going to take either a young major league ready power corner outfielder with a glove to get the job done, or a package of prospects and a free agent corner outfielder signing.  Just wild guesses.  I still don’t buy into the ‘we’ll hold him until July hoping to raise his value’ because Huntington has been burned too much with that game.  Stay focused – if Huntington gets a package even close to reasonable, I believe Doumit is history.

I’m also starting to hear Paul Maholm’s name for the third time this winter.  I don’t have any information other than his name is floating in so far unsubstantiated circuit rumors, but the fact his name is out there again tells me we must be getting some inquiries on at least a couple of our young starters.. Maholm being one of them. 

I keep saying things like ‘if Huntington gets’ but we all know the real deal.  This is, and will remain, the Frank Coonelly Show.

Nutting Pressure Cooker? Let the games begin

Will Ogden and Robert Nutting be controlling owners of the Pirates one year from now? The start of the Winter Meetings brings news that the Nuttings are about to go under the microscope, according to two sources. 

The first look will come from a local media report Monday morning which is all but certain to set off fireworks around the game; the second look may come from one of the most powerful men in Pittsburgh over the last three decades which will stun anyone who hears it; and the third may come from a report on revenue sharing released by Major League Baseball.  I said ‘may’ in two of those because I haven’t confirmed those events will happen just yet, only that I’m aware of them from sources.

I have a big picture view of what is contained in the first two of the three reports above and all I can say is that our patience may be starting to pay off.  Not only will it be a long year watching this club on the field, it’s going to be a long year of immense debate with the Pirates squarely in the middle. 

So buckle your seat belts because you’re in for a bumpy ride starting in less than three hours and the first wave will only be a ripple that will seem almost unbelievable to your ears.  It’s the volumes of waves that follow that initial ripple that – perhaps – will make or break the Nuttings in Pittsburgh.

Bill Madden calls out Ogden and Bob Nutting

If you happen to have an RSS Cloud aggregator on your desktop, then you’ll benefit from some new software I added to the blog today which will allow you real-time updates.  The change was necessary for syndication. 

New York Daily News columnist Bill Madden sent a second shot across the bow of the USS MLB that Admiral Selig seems to be limping toward dry dock.  Fortunately for Selig the shot was wide of the MLB but ended up striking Captain Nutting square between the eyes on the USS Pittsburgh Pirates.  Madden said in part (I’m putting all this in the blog because links dry up):

“Now on to Manfred, the Pirates and Boras. It seems this past week, Boras and Manfred got into a little hissing match over a column I wrote back in August which reported that the Pirates received a total of $75 million in revenue sharing and central fund monies (shared national TV, marketing, licensing, MLB Network and WEB site revenue) before they sold their first ticket.

Unbeknownst to me, Boras, with whom I have not exactly enjoyed a warm and fuzzy relationship through the years, threw those figures out last week, only to have Manfred, baseball’s VP of Labor Relations, fire back, saying: “He completely made those figures up,” adding that the Avenging Agent was living “in a fantasy land.” Manford also told Foxsports.com’s Ken Rosenthal that “no one club is getting $80 or $90 million in combined revenue sharing and Central Baseball funds,” even though the Florida Marlins, in fact, got $40 million from each, to top all teams with $80 million., according to my sources.  This prompted Boras to counter: “There is factual merit to the facts Madden reported and that is why Rob didn’t address it in August. Why did it take him three months to comment on it?”

In the meantime, Pirates President Frank Coonelly insisted that the $35 million Central Fund figure Boras is using is “inaccurate” – and to that I must confess Coonelly is right. When I first reported the $75 million booty the Pirates received, I broke it down to $35 million in central fund monies and $40 revenue sharing. In fact, it was just the opposite, but the bottom line is, it still adds up to $75 million.“  (Also see:  Madden’s August 1, 2009 warning shot article and his first true cannon shot August 15, 2009)

But according to Ken Rosenthal:

Coonelly, however, said the Pirates’ income from Major League Baseball was “well below” that $75 million figure. He said his club received substantially less than $40 million in revenue sharing last year, but declined to say what the specific numbers were.

Madden continued in his latest article:

And here is another figure Coonelly will probably want to refute:  According to my sources, the Pirates were one of the teams to make a profit this year – approximately $14 million, which is not bad for a team with 99 losses and 17 straight losing seasons.
 
What we do know is Pirates chairman Bob Nutting is not re-investing his revenue sharing in payroll, although there are disturbing rumors in Pittsburgh that he’s using the Pirates’ money to subsidize the hemorrhaging at his Seven Springs Ski Resort in Champion, Pa.
I mentioned here back in early October that perceptions in the area were that Seven Springs was having problems, so Madden’s news on that subject isn’t new to me.  Nor is it new news that the organization took home a sizeable profit because it has been doing so for several years based on all the written reports (about $60 million by my guess last five years) without any real backlash from the local media or fans (except my constant hounding, that is).
 
But what is new is that Philly lawyer Frank Coonelly has been blatantly called out as a liar by Rosenthal and Madden’s insinuations.  That is the last thing in the world the Nutting clan want to see happen right now because it also calls their credibility to the mat at a time they appear headed for a ‘one year grab as much profit as possible in 2010′ run. 
 
This is far from over as even my phone is ringing from investigative research types now so sit back and wait for the next round to be fired.  In the meantime, don’t expect any changes in the way the Pirates go about their business.  But I am very pleased to see national media types and some inside the game start to openly question the financial motives of Ogden and Robert Nutting.  It’s long overdue since local media has become too soft on the subject.
 
 
I’ve brought all this up before and I think it is worth mentioning again now, how do you think the players in our system (from Pittsburgh to Bradenton) feel after reading these types of reports in the national media?  Think hard about it.
 

If you look at the chart on the left you can see that, since Ryan Doumit joined the Pirates in June 2005, when he started the game as a catcher the team has a .390 winning percentage over 259 games.  When Doumit wasn’t the starting catcher, the team winning percentage was .413.  That’s a 0.023 percentage difference and if you multiply that times a 150 game season that we would expect Doumit to start as a catcher, having him start cost us 3.5 wins per year. 

No, that’s not perfect science by any means considering the magnitude of other variables, but it does hint at value.  Now look what happened when he started at first or in right – we played almost .500 baseball over 78 games and his ‘value’ jumped 15.5 wins the other way.  Wow.  Again, splitting 78 games up over several years is hardly providing us with credible results, but still, there you go. If you are Huntington, how do you pass the chance to test the theory further? 

Now look at our starters.. when Duke took the mound to start a game the team winning percentage has been .392 since he joined the club. That is a negative 1/2 win per year off the team’s actual winning percentage since he joined the club while also assuming he makes 35 starts. 

Maholm?  Over 127 games his starts have resulted in a .465 team winning percentage on a club that has gone .405 since he’s been in Pittsburgh.  Ohlendorf had a good year but only started 29 games so it will take another year of starts to get a better handle on his ‘value’ to the club. But for right now, he’s the highest of the four pitchers listed at +3.4 wins last year.  Realize the +/- wins are based against the overall team winning percentage during the time that player has been with the club and assumes 35 starts. 

I think it’s clear Maholm is our best starter by far based on his consistent results and I think it’s equally fair to say he would provide an average or better than average MLB team with middle of the order expected results. 

None of this proves a thing of course but it does point us in a direction.. if Doumit is going to be dealt then Huntington needs to consider more value than what he has produced as a catcher while hampered with numerous injuries. 

And Huntington also needs to consider moving Duke. in fact, I’d move Duke to AZ for Snyder in a heartbeat and pick up some change along the way (too late now that they got Heilman?). Then I’d keep Doumit and stick him in right knowing he’d be a minus defender out there but also expecting him to be better than the ‘-3.5 win’ guy he was behind the dish. 

We can’t lose because if we get 150 games from Doumit playing right, we’ll go past his run production over 75 games that we are used to seeing from him thereby reducing his poor defensive contribution.  Sure, it would be ugly but I have to believe somebody on our field staff can kick his butt into gear so he hustles in right. Or maybe it would be better to work him in an effective platoon with Jones at first and in right based on who is on the mound to minimize his exposure on defense?   

Just ideas.

rducig2spwwc

Road to Respect takes another hit as Perry Hill walks

Perry Hill isn’t returning.  What a blow.  One blogger thinks it’s because of money, many others speculated it was about trades made during the year, some fans think it might be because of Hill’s family, and one respected Pirates fan incredibly called out Hill as a flake and then proceeded to defend the Pirates front office.

Covering this team as I do I’ve had the chance to talk to Hill during the year, I’ve talked with Huntington too, I even talked to friends of both men; I’ve talked with longtime season ticket holders who were very dialed-in to this, I’ve had discussions with people around the players, I’ve talked to two of the local writers who follow the Pirates beat, talked to others in the game, and talked to well known national media writers.

Hill’s decision wasn’t about money, it wasn’t about the trades, his family is fine thank you, and Hill is far from being a flake. 

Hill left the Marlins before the 2007 season began because his wife was ill and he rightfully put his family before the game.  He had signed a contract that gave the Marlins control through the 2008 season so when Neal Huntington asked and received permission to speak with him over the winter of 2007/2008, Huntington was under the impression Hill would be his first base coach.  In the end, the price the Marlins wanted in compensation proved to be too steep for the Pirates and, combined with Hill’s continuing desire to care for his family, the timing just wasn’t right.

But it did come together for 2009.  Hill signed a one-year contract with a one-year option as did Joe Kerrigan and both men came aboard with the understanding that John Russell would remain as manager and there wouldn’t be wholesale changes made to the roster. 

In late June/early July when Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez’s names started surfacing in potential trades, Hill let it be known that he preferred the Pirates try to retain his middle infield combo, but that wasn’t the option the Pirates had in mind at the time.  In fact, it wasn’t until after media inquiries started flowing in to the Pirates front office that they hastily jumped to try and extend both players, but they were rebuffed and the players ultimately traded.

That pissed off Hill.  Not the trades, mind you, but that he felt the assurances given to him that he wasn’t being brought in for a rebuilding project when he was hired had been broken.  It was all about integrity.  After all, two of the chief reasons he even came to Pittsburgh instead of taking huge sums of money with the Yankees or playing close to home with the Rangers was because of his connection with John Russell and the seasoned professionals he was to be placed in charge of. 

After the trades were made and the Pirates front office became increasingly aware of Hill’s displeasure of their actions, they began negotiations to bring Hill back for 2010 which he rejected.  Kerrigan rejected the Pirates as well and while I wasn’t dialed-in to Kerrigan’s position, many I have spoken to said Kerriagn was just as pissed off at the Pirates moves as Hill was and at one point it appeared he wouldn’t be coming back either. 

As time went by and the season drew to a close, Hill continued to rebuff the Pirates attempt to bring him back until he informed the club Friday he had decided not to return.  The Pirates media release quoted Neal Huntington as saying “Perry has decided that he does not want to coach .. [and we] remain open to Perry returning to the organization if and when he desires to coach again” which was a childish jab at Hill. 

The Pirates appear to have a legal right to refuse Hill the opportunity to move on with another club but the fact they are exercising that right is more demoralizing to me than this entire episode has been since one of their primary stated organizational goals has been to rid themselves of cultural differences within their ranks (ie: see Jack Wilson, Salomon Torres, Wilson Alvarez, Gary Ruby, Troy Buckley, Trent Jewett, Adam LaRoche, et al).  This inaction actually lends credibility to Hill’s position because if they won’t do what they preach, what good are they?

In my humble opinion they should have torn up the option contract and not started to cry over spilled milk because it makes everyone upstairs look weak.  They have known Hill’s position since July and they have known since August Hill was telling the world he wasn’t planning on returning and why. Now they turn around and mock the man for holding to his convictions which, right or wrong, he feels are justified.  Plus here we go again, the nation is looking at a continuing storyline of how unstable this organization is.  Frank Coonelly should have been a bit smarter and avoided all this.

No matter, the real ‘legend’ of the 2009 Pirates is now gone and he’s certain not to be returning during the Huntington era.  He’ll be missed as will the +40 or more runs we saved defensively by having him here.  Hill can easily be replaced with another body because the Pirates pay pretty good money for their field staff and there sure are a lot of people in this game who work for only the money, but Hill’s talent level can’t be replaced. 

I can’t blame Huntington because I don’t know exactly what he told Hill plus the entire world knew the Pirates needed to rebuild, which I personally supported.  And I can’t blame Hill because he’s doing what he believes is right for him based on conversations only he knows about.  But if you have to blame someone for these kind of weekly events, blame Bob and Ogden Nutting because, when it comes right down to it, Bob’s the Chairman of the Board for his pop and the Pirates are only as strong as the two of them allow them to be. 

Right now that isn’t saying much.

 

Ah shucks, we lost; Perrotto canned? Naw.?!

The probability of us winning the 10k challenge now that the Phils lost is almost nil, but we gave it a good shot.  The winner each year usually has 13 or 14 straight wins.  So, thanks for everyone that played. 

We may have lost out on the 10k challenge but all Pirates fans won a small battle against the Nuttings today when piratereport[dot]com was virtually shut down.  Word on the street is that John Perrotto was fired.

Yeah!

I called for a boycott of that website back in February because the Nuttings – and Perrotto – failed to disclose the fact the Nuttings were paying Perrotto’s keep.  All I ever wanted to see was the Nuttings own up on the “about” page that the majority owner of the Pirates was indirectly paying the bills… the readers there had a right to know other than a brief statement in an article here or there.  This was never about Perrotto for me but he didn’t take any steps to correct the wrongs either so, in my book, he was just as much at fault. 

We’re hearing Perrotto was fired but I’m not in the camp that believes for one second he was really fired.  My take?  I’ve been warning for the last eighteen months or so that pay walls were going to go up around the Pirates coverage and I think you are about to see that happen this winter.  Still, I don’t understand how a man could be fired from a domain that he appears to own.  Or, did Perrotto’s contract with the Nuttings require him to register the domain with his address to try and hide from the public the Nuttings’ involvement?  The entire venture had very poor short-term planning, much like we see with the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Too bizarre.

Look for Perrotto to magically show up intact and writing behind one of the pay walls in Pittsburgh.  Get your wallets ready to pay for coverage in 2010. 

This might explain why Colla gave up the ship his last two months out.  A bit tired Mike?  I’m all for our guys helping youth but when they are being rented out …

New baseball statistic:  “the squander®.”  This is the offensive team’s statistical equivalent of a pitcher’s “blown save.”  Read more about it from Roger Abrams at the Huffington Post.

Pretty kewl idea, actually.

 

Bucs plucked as Nate rakes

Yesterday’s post where I called for the fans to boycott piratesreport.com was picked up by numerous blogshere giants like Deadspin.  Kudos to all of them for following us in our plight.  But obviously the Pirates didn’t like it too much because they didn’t waste any time cutting off Bucco Blog’s three-day old right to receive media distributions.  Updated at noon EST 2/18:  the Pirates emailed to let me know they made a decision to not allow bloggers on the media release list at this time and removing Bucco Blog had nothing to do with yesterday’s post.  I respect that decision.

C’est la vie.. the fans have a right to know and that’s more important.

In my opinion, Pittsburgh Pirates majority owner Robert Nutting has an ethical responsibility to disclose to the public at piratesreport.com that he is indirectly paying the writer at that blog and that his newspaper business stands to gain financially from visits to the site.  From that point on it would be up to the readers to determine if John Perrotto has editorial freedom or not. 

But hiding the fact at the site Perrotto is on Nutting payroll while covering the Pirates isn’t kosher and, as you are going to read in the coming days across the blogshere, there aren’t many that believe it’s appropriate. 

One thing I will do is apologize to Nutting for not editing my comments quick enough yesterday.  Some idiot from North Carolina posted a trashy wish about Nutting that was completely inappropriate and I didn’t catch it until late today. 

Nate McLouth settled as I suspected he would.  He’s receiving no less than $15.75 million over three years with a salary of $2MM in 2009, $4.5MM in 2010, $6.5MM in 2011, a $1.25MM club option buyout in 2011 or $10.65MM, and a signing bonus of $1.5MM.  I assume the bonus will be split over two years because I don’t believe for one second the Pirates are handing McLouth $3.5MM in 2009.  But that’s a guess.

That means the Pirates are paying for +2.2 wins and a value of $8.75 million (using $4MM/win) per year broken down like this:

$8.75MM * .4 = $3.50MM
$8.75MM * .6 = $5.25MM
$8.75MM * .8 = $7.00MM

$15.75MM total guaranteed money

The multipliers (.4. .6, and .8) are for first, second, and third year arbitration years and represent a percentage of true value that teams use during arbitration eligible years.  I used the same multipliers with Snell, Sanchez, Wilson, and Doumit, as well as the same $4MM/win value in 2008 and now in 2009.

Now, you tell me if Nate McLouth is worth +2.2 wins per year each year for the next three.

If you answered with either a yes or a no then you must have a firm conviction on whether or not McLouth is a one year wonder, whether his value is important to the Pirates or if there is enough value to move him in a trade, and whether or not his 2008 breakout year is sustainable.

I certainly don’t have any of the answers to those questions, but what I do know is that McLouth isn’t worth +2.2 wins to the Pirates, and the reasons why are obvious.  In center field McLouth gives up too many runs in almost every park, he doesn’t have the arm to play right field, and that leaves him playing left where his cover ability is less than desired, certainly at PNC and Miller, and probably at Busch.  Simply put, he’s a defensive loser.

If we assume he plays at least 93% of the time or 150 games per year and plays center in 2009 and left in 2010 and 2011, that means he’ll be playing 62% (300) of the games the next three years as a defensive liability.  And that’s before we talk about whether his bat continues to play in the league or the fact we have other players in the system that could be shortly taking over at center and left.

Simply put, the Pirates overpaid.  Not only horribly overpaid but they took on way too much risk not knowing if he is a one year wonder or not. 

It’s an unusally bad contract they need to get rid of asap.  Perhaps Frank Coonelly was sweating losing his first arb case in Pittsburgh?  God only knows.

We only hope.

Chop!  Chop! 

No, not a fan at a Braves game.  That’s Ogden Nutting’s United Bankshares stock taking a nose dive Tuesday.  Like everything else the Nutting’s seem to own, that holding is likely to be junk real soon too.

And hey, did I see the market close at 7552 today?  Hold your pennies, I’m guessing there’s another 500 it will shed before it’s time to buy.