By Jake, on August 6, 2010, at 10:49 pm | 19 comments
Ok, I admit it.. I stood up screaming my brains out when Alvarez hit the bomb in the 6th. It was the first time this season I came out of my seat and for a second there I was transported back to Willie Stargell days.
I’m serious.
What a blast! Alvarez was sitting in the box with a 2-0 count looking soft for some reason, got a hanging changeup and rocketed it out of the park. Funny thing, Alvarez almost never got to hit in the inning.
Down three runs and with one out with Tabata at first and Walker at the plate, Tabata stole second aggressively and was safe by a hair. He didn’t exactly get a good jump and Ianetta’s 1.82 pop throw was right on the bag. I understand taking risk but why John Russell would have Tabata steal there down three knowing the young man has been hampered with a leg problem this week combined with the fact his first few steps are very slow, just amazes me. As if to prove me right, Walker was then hit by a pitch which would have moved Tabata anyway and then Jones then struckout. So if Tabata had been caught stealing, the inning would have been over.
Call it the John Russell factor, much like what happened in the 9th.
Still down three in the bottom of the ninth, Alvarez struckout and then Milledge hustled down the line to beat out a grounder Helton wasn’t able to field cleanly. So who does John Russell send to the plate?
Chris “groundball double play” Snyder and he promptly delivered another of his specialties. Why Russell didn’t let Clement hit against Street there is puzzling because he had Kratz still on the bench and Snyder is about as slow as molasses.
Just plain poor managing like we see most games from Russell.
Snyder should also be given an assist for the Rockies win because, with the game tied 3-3 with two outs in the top of the 7th after Alvarez’s blast, Gonzalez ground one just out of the reach of Cedeno (should have been gloved but I’m not sure he gets him even if he did) and then Snyder didn’t block (he stabbed ala Doumit, if you can believe that) a Park slider which ran to the backstop allowing Gonzalez second. Tulowitzki then hit a shallow line drive to Tabata and dang if he didn’t just stand there and let the ball come to him instead of charging the ball and then coming up throwing to the plate. Instead, he had little momentum on his throw and it was late allowing Gonzalez to score. A good throw gets Gonzalez easily.
Like Snyder, Tabata also had a couple of humble pie plays and his third one came in the 8th when the Pirates were down one run, there was one out, and he was standing on first having beat out an infield groundball off Belisle’s glove. With Walker at the plate, the ball bounced a little ways from Iannetta and Tabata took a couple of steps toward second, then stopped, took another step toward second, then stopped, and then tried to dive back to first and Iannetta threw him out. I mean, he was standing there 30′ from the bag looking right at Iannetta as he scooped the ball up instead of hustling back to the bag, so that eliminated yet another chance we had.
In Snyder’s case I can understand him being a bit worn out catching a complete day/night series after joining the club and then catching this game. I mentioned yesterday that he looked tired and like he needed a day off. Obviously he stabs for the ball much like Doumit.. not as frequently perhaps, but seems to do it more often in higher leverage times of the game for some reason. Maybe he’s just not a guy who handles pressure well?
But Tabata has no excuses for his miscues/screwups.. he’s just a very immature player who is playing at a level over his head right now. He’s learning but it’s costing us a lot of games and in the end, I’m not sure we end up with a player down the road that is worth giving 150 games per year to. He doesn’t have any power, nor does he project any with his filled out body type, he’s a below average fielder with a below average arm, the running mistakes he’s been making might clear up with more seasoning, but he’ll also be slowing down in the next year or two.
Are we not wasting our time with him? I just don’t see any future value there even with a .302 BA which becomes a net .175 BA considering the number of times he runs into outs. I mean, he’s somewhat like a Milledge Jr. who should probably be developing in 3A instead or traded to a club that needs a centerfielder in a smaller park.
But what do I know?
Hanrahan was hit hard in the 9th.. he threw a ridiculous 31 pitches until John Russell finally went and got him. He was hit hard — missing his locations and throwing too predictable pitches. It was almost like he and Snyder weren’t on the same page although I never saw any evidence of that.
One play in the 9th that stood out was Tulowitzki’s slide around Pedro Alvarez’s tag. Giambi hit a ground ball up the middle and McCutchen came in fairly quick to get it while Tulowitzki headed first to third. McCutchen made a good throw right to Alvarez but Pedro was timid applying the tag and Tulowitzki slid around him. One thing about LaRoche, he would have put his mitt in his mouth to tag him out if needed.
The game was pretty much out of reach by that time anyway but it was a lazy tag by Alvarez, much like Tabata’s lazy route running, or Snyder’s lazy blocking, or Tabata not thinking on the bases with Carlos Garcia not even screaming at him to get back, or Jones cross-firing a throw to second on a pickoff/caught stealing play that went past two defenders and into left, or Duke throwing 3-1 get ahead fastballs to Fowler in the third that he lined off the right field wall, or Alvarez trying a drop step and missing Barmes grounder in the third, and so on, and so forth, etc, etc..
Funny how we seem to show up and play on the days the opposition either throws a finesse pitcher or puts in their “B” lineup, but the rest of the week we look like a 2A club learning the ropes …
… with extremely poor instructors.
McCutchen and Milledge both made nice diving catches in this game, Cedeno missed a couple on a few rangy plays but gloved a couple of hard ones as well, and while Snyder gave up a run with his glove, he also had a few nice blocks and has somewhat slowed down the running game. Somewhat.
Chan Ho Park? He looked like Chan Ho Park and was hit like Chan Ho Park. ‘Nuff said.
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What’s with Tabata sacrifice bunting in the first inning with McCutchen at first? Talk about a John Russell implosion. I don’t get that one bit.
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Hanrahan allowed to throw 31 pitches. Wow, wow, wow. Now that’s a major screw up by Russell.
Unless Park can close, that is.
Ok.. ok.. just kidding.
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How about these performances in our minor league system. The top three lines represent about 1/4 of the starters in the next two waves. Ouch. And how about Dodson dealing a no-no until pulled? Good stuff.
By Jake, on August 4, 2010, at 10:29 pm | 39 comments
Wednesday was player tool showcase day in Pittsburgh showing thousands of local children in the stands how best to try out for Pitt’s platform diving team.
First up was Pedro Alvarez who made numerous armstand back double somersault’s in the tuck position all day. Unfortunately, they all ended up being belly flops. Later he showcased his javelin throwing skills too but that resulted in a fan being hit in the face losing several teeth.
Next up in the tool showcase was Lastings Milledge who is said to be Alvarez’s diving coach. On Wednesday he showed why doing a reverse three-and-a-half somersault in the tuck position. Unfortunately for him, he needed to be in a pike position to catch the ball, but that didn’t matter.. he still scored a 9.2 from the fans for the dive.
Lastly, Andrew McCutchen’s front dive with a half twist in the straight knee position (how elegant) was the day’s best getting a 9.8 from the fans. But not the ball. But the kids understood – after all, he was beaned yesterday and was back in the lineup today while Jose Tabata – who isn’t a diver, he just runs – was resting comfortably on the bench.
Part II of the player tool display was demonstrated by Pirates pitchers who were performing for a soon to be released movie called ‘How to pitch to contact and remain alive’ which will also become an instructional video for the Pirates development system. I saw we did an excellent job.
Part III of the player showcase was demonstrated by newly acquired catcher Chris Snyder.. ‘how to block more efficiently than Ryan Doumit’. It took several takes before the director was able to get a wrap but was pleased in Snyder’s work effort. Snyder responded to that praise by hitting the ball squarely in the 9th resulting in double play thanks in part to his 9.2 second trot to first stopping to sign autographs along the way.
Part IV of the player tool showcase came after the game when a couple of the pitchers were told they didn’t work hard enough for the video and were sent out. Pirates management immediately brought up some depth from the minor league system called every GM in the game begging for some help to save face, and a couple of trading partners who have screwed are favorites of Neal Huntington responded by allowing him to get Chris ‘I love my straight fastball’ Resop from John Schuerholz’s Braves off the wire, and Chan Hoe Ho Park from Brian Cashman and the Yankees.
As for the baseball game, oh, we lost that puppy. But management said they were impressed that we didn’t commit an error all day, we only struck out twice as many times as we hit home runs which suggests that our slugging percentage is turning the corner, and our #6 starter actually held the mighty Reds to just three runs over five innings which shows our incredible starting pitching depth.
Management also wanted to thank Dusty Baker for the two cookies thrown.. one in McCutchen’s first at bat as sort of ”We’re sorry Cutch” type of apology for yesterday’s beaning, and the 9th inning cookie given to the Pirates ‘core hopeful organizational big shot player’ in Pedro Alvarez. The fans enjoyed watching these cookies sail, thank you. Oh, and we’re sorry Clement took liberties and went yard.. we told him to play nice.
As for the official scorer in Pittsburgh? I heard he lost his glasses a week ago and has decided to just list everything close as a H (hit) regardless of the credibility hit the game is taking.
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Yes it’s true, one of New Bucs readers actually sent a video in to ABC’s Extreme Makeover show asking them to come rebuild our ship. I’ve asked him to send me a copy of the video so we can display it.
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I mentioned yesterday Tabata looked rough legging things out and today he was on the pine. I’m guessing he’s having a hammy problem of some kind.
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Old McDonald goes to the mound Thursday and, if we’re lucky, we’ll be able to see a little Resop and Park action to boot (Bucs later announced Park will take the maximum two days to report so he can cry his brains out won’t show up until Friday). Just think.. that’s going to produce a better in-park display than any fireworks night ever could thanks to their ability to pitch to contact, a 10+ MPH wind blowing out, and the drier air mass moving in behind the morning storms. I’d guess this is a potential sellout opportunity for the Nuttings – no doubt about it.
Be sure to bring your sleeping bags to the park because the game might still be going at two 4 AM.
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Yeah, we added Resop and Park instead of letting Kratz throw more innings. What a bummer. Is anybody besides me wondering why we didn’t just bring up Brad Lincoln and put him in the pen so he’d get his feet wet? Yeah I know, that’s too logical for the group of bean counters we have.
I also thought I saw Kiko Calero’s name flash across my transaction list the other day when he was dropped from the Dodgers system. Gee.. a broken down Calero or Chan Ho Park. I think I’d rather give Calero a chance but he’d probably cost more than the $25k waiver wire fee plus salary we’d have to pay Park or Resop.
There sure are a lot of available relievers around – it’s pretty strange the only way Huntington can get a deal done is to pull junk off the wire. Or, maybe that’s all ownership will let him do since they haven’t dumped Doumit’s salary yet traded Doumit.
BTW, why the hell don’t the Pirates turn Doumit into a starter? Heck, just his presence on the mound will get him more strikeouts per nine than any pitcher we have.
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Here’s another evaluation missed by the Pirates new regime. I was talking with a scout who told me that Miguel Montero - the D’Backs catching phenom – was made available in 2008 and Huntington was one of the front offices that didn’t inquire evidently believing they had the equivalent in Doumit.
Ouch.
Heard today that Snyder has already had a run-in in the clubhouse. Evidently Snyder opened his mouth to Joe Kerrigan who put the young man quickly in his place. Ok, just kidding.. but just imagine Kerrigan, Doumit, and Snyder all wired up together in the clubhouse. Wow..
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Fun times are headed to Pittsburgh – Ryan Doumit returns to play right field Friday night. Or some night soon. I can’t wait to see him leg out a few misplayed fly balls into the corner, throw a few lasers twenty feet over his relay man, backup relay man, infield corner, and a few rows up in the seats. Should be exciting stuff. Gee, if we put Doumit in right, Tabata in center, Milledge in left, Alvarez at third, Jones at first, Snyder behind the plate, and Walker and Cedeno up the middle, I wonder if that defensive alignment would officially rank as the most range limited group in 100 years?
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Rockies back in town for four games. I think they are about to die a slow death here in Pittsburgh as Jim Tracy can’t seem to get his boys up for the task of competing down the stretch. Look for them to continue to fall flat on their butts on the road. That said, now watch them sweep us.
The Bucs slotted McDonald to face the Rockies in game one probably because they have been ice-cold with the bat on the road (lowest road BA in the game in July) plus they have been having a hard time against right-hand pitching lately (3-13 last 16 RH road starters). By all accounts, if McDonald lasts through three innings, we should win this game knowing we have stoppers like Resop and Gallagher available. Unfortunately Park won’t be available because if McDonald doesn’t make it out of the first inning, I really don’t know who the Bucs will throw in as their long man to take one for the team. Maybe Thomas? Certainly McCutchen.
Francis has been pitching extremely well lately (2.00 ERA last 3) so they key for us to be patient in the box and make him throw as many pitches as possible to get to their bullpen which has been as bad as the Pirates pen lately. Francis is typically good for 80 pitches and then blows up but since we have been mauling finesse pitchers of late, he might have an earlier than expected shower.
I wouldn’t bet a plug nickel on any of these games because both clubs are mentally and physically beat and anything could happen. Don’t be surprised if you see a shootout at the PNC Corral all four games.
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It’s heartbreaking that Neal Huntington didn’t reach down into his system and give a couple of youngsters a shot to take the relief roles that were available. Lincoln clearly should have been one, Crotta might have been an acceptable choice (would require a roster move), or Bryan Morris could have gotten his feet wet a bit instead of going into shut down mode. Imagine our pen with Lincoln and Morris around? I’d take those odds for the rest of the season.
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Did someone say Chris Sale was promoted to the White Sox Wednesday? Oh my.. he’ll have a hard time first few out but I think he’ll settle in nicely.
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And now we find out why Russell Martin was rumored to the Bucs as a possible trade chip recently.
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Walk away Chuck – you lost when you signed the waiver. Pack up Nolan and head back home – we still love you even though you walked out on us.
By Jake, on July 8, 2010, at 12:40 am | 7 comments
6-3 Astros, top of the ninth, two outs, Walker at third, Jones at first, and up comes the Pirates hope of the future – Pedro Alvarez. He looks at a hanging slider for strike one, swings through a slider away for strike two, and then embarrassed himself with an off-balanced, open-shoulder swing at a slider well off the plate for strike three and the Pirates lost yet another game.
The Pirates media department quickly fired up the spin machine and spit out a press release indicating the Bucs middle of the order went a robust 6 for 11 with 2 walks and 3 runs scored, Daniel McCutchen pitched a four-hitter over 5 innings, and gonna’ be All-Star Evan Meek was hitting 98 on the stadium gun. In the morning the casual fans will read that crap and start thinking – hey, maybe we are getting better while completely ignorant to the facts that over the last 28 games the Bucs:
– have averaged just 3.07 runs per game – by far the fewest of any club;
– offense has the fewest total bases and second fewest hits in the game;
– defense has committed the most errors during that period (24 in 28 games but in reality is probably more like 54 in 28);
– pitching staff have the fewest strikeouts in the game and batters have the third highest.
Now you can argue that events like Alvarez whiffing with two on and two outs in the 9th is related to his youth and that down the road that may not happen so much.. ok, fair enough. But tell me why we are getting completely dominated from one end of the spectrum to the other. I hear you – you are saying it’s because we are so young and we’re developing at the major league level. I see.. so then, answer this question..
Then why is our total 2010 production just 25% better than what we expect from a 25-man roster made up of replacement level players? And to be more blunt, how is it that, in the last 30 days, the team’s production is barely sniffing that 25-man replacement level status?
If you thought we had problems after the trades last year while scoring just 3.6 runs per game over our last 73, well, you are now witnessing a 15% decrease in run production since that time and each thirty days that ticks off the clock we’re losing more and more production. Over the last 156 games we’ve scored just 531 runs for a 3.40 per game average, over the last 61 games 3.11 runs, and over the last 28 games 3.07.
If we assume the league average is 4.32 runs per game (700 runs scored per year), and we’re at 3.07, how much better can each of these player produce over the next three years as they develop? 2% per year? 4%? 6%?? And while these players continue to get better, should we also assume the league pitching will remain neutral during that period? By that I mean, should we assume none of the clubs will be improving their pitching over the next three years? If they will be, how much will that potentially retard our youth’s growth?
All things being even, the probability the current Pittsburgh Pirates general 13-man position player roster improves their yearly run production 20% over the next three years is probably close to one-billion to one. That’s especially true the way the roster, and short-term replacements, are constructed – we’re a doubles oriented system from Pittsburgh to the GCL. Everywhere you look we have speed and below average power, to save a few. In fact, we’re a doubles oriented system with mostly poor defensive skill sets and no impact pitching anywhere in the system to speak of. Morris might be an exception but he’ll have to prove to me he can pitch at this level before I believe it. Maybe one day Taillon will too, if he’s ever signed. And perhaps one or two come forward to meet expectations as middle of the order guys one day. Perhaps.
But there is no way Bob Nutting will ever go out on the free agent market and buy top shelf pitching. Forget it. Nor is he ever likely to spend for the big bop free agent bats. So the Pirates are taking as many pitchers as they can grab hoping to one day be able to trade arms for bats (think Rays plan that never worked). Problem is, they passed up a lot of impact pitching to this point. And impact bats. And impact development staff. And impact scouts. And, and, and…
I don’t care how much of an optimist you might be, you still have to look at reality. Reality says our run production is falling off the shelf, our error rate in the system is increasing at an alarming rate, our system wide injury rate is skyrocketing, and we don’t have any impact players left in our system save, perhaps, Morris.
And here’s another simple point to ponder outside of the poor evaluations and assignments (like Walker) this front office has made in the last 18 months. Let’s talk about basic organizational philosophy a second. John Russell recently said:
“I know a lot of fans criticize me for not yelling and screaming, but I can’t do that,” Russell said. “We’ve got a lot of young kids who are just getting their feet wet in the major leagues. The last thing they need is me yelling and screaming at them.” — my emphasis
WTF?
The entire minor league system is run like a Marine basic training camp preparing boys to go to war. They are yelled at, screamed at, every second they are under intense supervision, they have to put t-shirts in certain places in their locker, they have bulletin boards humiliating players who don’t meet standards, and they are forced to hear and do things they never thought possible. Then there is Russell’s philosophy in Pittsburgh where he babies his troops and look what happens – they do what they want to do. It’s gotten so bad in Pittsburgh that Varsho has become so frustrated he’s gone out of his way to let it be known he won’t tolerate the fluff any more.
Yet it continues on a nightly basis.
There is so much wrong with this organization right now it makes Dave Littlefield days look like Jimmy Leyland world series days. I agree we’re in a rebuilding stage, but not the kind you thing we’re in. No, the only thing we’re rebuilding is the Nutting’s bank account after they bought out partners.
Who. Is. Kidding. Who?
How the Player’s Association could ever give their stamp of approval to this rebuild is a disturbing revelation and bad for the game. Perhaps they did it knowing Nutting was finally spending every penny he could get a hold of to buy out all the partners leaving him in total control and debt free and ready to take on the world? Fat chance he ever spends it on this organization outside of Dana Eveland and Sean Gallagher types (Billy Beane rejects). And there is even a fatter chance guys like Alvarez and McCutchen will ever allow them to spend it on any more than one free agent year, if they get lucky enough to get even one.
Ok.. enough of the rant. The big picture? Our stats are tanking like a lead ball in water and even if everyone picks it up some, we’re only likely to just get back to July 2009 levels. We need talent, we don’t need any more talk out of the side of front office mouths. The only way to get talent it to go pay for it.. take a chance, go spend $20MM to a club needing cash and wrestle one of their big corner OF contracts away. There are opportunities.
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On the Sean Gallagher acquisition, it’s just another move by the Pirates who are desperately trying to find back of the order starters to fill in so they can deal the few chips they have left. It’s not a deal that will make any difference at all and you can expect to be just as frustrated when he pitches as with Ohlendorf, Morton, McCutchen, etc, etc, etc, etc,..
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We’ve now allowed 10 home runs in the last 6 games. Ouch.
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What’s wrong with this picture?
What you don’t see is Ronny Cedeno who just flew out of the picture to the right trying to grab an errand Doumit throw while Bourn was stealing second. What you do see is that Doumit threw the ball to the wrong player who shouldn’t even be anywhere around the bag.
That’s about as confusing as this play:
What the…
That’s Doumit trying to save his life on a Meek slider that he expected to be a fastball. These two were so out of whack during the entire time Meek was on the mound, Meek stepped off like three or four times and Doumit make at least one trip out to talk to him — right before Meek threw this pitch with the bases loaded.
We just rock on defense baby.
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So what’s up with Moskos getting stretched out again? I assume this means the Pirates front office feels he can be the next Lopez for us? What a disaster. Why remove him from closing out games if he was excelling at it? I’m not sure I see Moskos having value as a 7th inning pitcher, and I’m not a big believer in having a left specialist on an NL staff. Hanrahan has been filthy lately but he’s injury prone and I still say Meek looks rough around the edges.
But what do I know?
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Here’s yet another national media publication telling their readership the Pirates are a joke. What’s funny about this one is that it is written by a guy who covers tennis, so even national publications seem to be assigning the “PIrates suck’ stories to lower level reporters now.
And how about this FanGraphs post on the Gorzelanny giveaway? Ok, it’s written by a kid who doesn’t really seemed very dialed-in to everything Pittsburgh, but still he made a couple of good points.. Huntington did give up on him.
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Maybe Oswalt will blow a gasket and we’ll find a win behind Ohlendorf?
By Jake, on June 15, 2010, at 11:12 pm | 7 comments
Brad Lincoln.. the Dave Littlefield draftee that Neal Huntington has set up to fall hard, is doing just that – falling hard. Rushed out of AAA throwing just two legitimate pitches, Lincoln is getting hit hard. Despite allowing 13 hits in 12 innings, even the outs he is generating are mostly well-struck balls. In his second start Tuesday you could see he has backed off challenging hitters as much as he did the first time out and that resulted in him walking more than he struck out.
I think I was the only Pirates fan on the planet that didn’t want Lincoln brought up. My personal quick scouting report goes something like this:
– unable to vary speeds on his breaking ball and fast ball enough to offset the fact he only has two pitches
– his fast ball velocity at the start of each game is in the 92 – 94 MPH range, falls off to 90 – 92 MPH around the 40 pitch mark, and 88 – 90 by the 70 pitch mark
– below average fast ball movement
– he hangs 20% of his breaking balls and is wild on 5% of them
– he started throwing a few change ups in his second outing but primarily to batters who were bunting. One of the few times he tried to throw the pitch for a strike to a batter not bunting, he hit him. The offering is so poor it can’t even be called fringe.
Simply put, Brad Lincoln has no business being on the major league roster. The Pirates front office said he was brought up to take his development to the next level but that’s a farce and a major knock on their player development system. We’ve already read professional scouting opinions that the Pirates are not emphasizing learning how to throw a change up until later in the development cycle but Huntington’s pitching coordinators and minor league field staff have had at least two-plus years to teach Lincoln how to master a change. They never did – Lincoln acknowledged he had to learn it from a fellow player in AAA this year after the season began.
What bothered me the most about his start Tuesday is that as the game went on his body language and pitch locations (missing the mitt) suggested all the rocket shots off him were starting to get to his head. He managed just one 1-2-3 inning this game and only two the previous game, but in all three of those there were well-hit outs.
And here’s the most troubling part about Lincoln’s immediate future – within a couple of games video will be around on him and batters will simply lay off the plus breaking ball and sit dead red and crush him. It’s the exact same thing that happened to Charlie Morton.
The Pirates front office is making strategic mistake after strategic mistake much like Dave Littlefield did in ’save-my-job’ mode.
Lincoln needs to be sent down to 3A to learn how to throw a change up, to learn how to vary the speeds on his pitches, and to build arm strength. If the Pirates don’t have anyone in the organization who can help him accomplish those goals outside of Joe Kerrigan, then they need to go outside and hire some help immediately.
The fans deserve better than players having their clocks started before they are ready. If Bob Nutting really wants to put a competitive major league baseball club together, then he either better start listening to the consulting voices he is paying, or if he doesn’t trust them, he better get new people.
This is a joke.
While I understand this front office has an upcoming July deadline problem probably wanting to push some pitching out the door and need to see if Lincoln can hold his own, that’s the front office’s knee-jerk problem for poor short-term planning – not the fans. Lincoln’s only here to throw three out of five games in front of the home crowd for Nutting cash flow.. who is kidding who? He wasn’t even put into the easier slot, for some bizarre reason.
Hat tip to the scouts at Bucs Prospects who projected Lincoln one year off and questioned the Pirates lack of development for an out-pitch against left-hand batters. Spot on.
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Walker and McCutchen.. 5-9 with four runs scored. Wow. It’s the two spark plugs we thought we were going to see with McCutchen and Milledge which never came about. They are feeding off each other right now and it’s fun to watch. Unfortunately, McCutchen’s head hasn’t exactly been attached on defense lately as he’s allowed too many runners to advance on poor relay throws. He’s either throwing to the wrong base or he’s airmailing throws over his relay man. Often. Too often. So often its cost us quite a few runs lately, like Tuesday night.
I hate seeing Church’s empty bat in the lineup but I have to be honest, his defense has been impressive in right and he’s saved a couple of runs as a result. Sometimes an 0-4 at the plate isn’t so bad if you are also contributing in other ways.
And what’s with this no-play by Garrett Jones:
Ninth inning, down a run with the top of the Pirates lineup coming to bat in the bottom of the ninth, no outs and a man at first – Dotel throws wide of the bag and Jones refuses to give ground and catch the ball and the runner ends up at third then eventually scores.
My-oh-my.
But that wasn’t as scary as this — McCutchen singled in the 9th and then…
seemed to develop a cramp in his left leg.
Whew!
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The big news circulating late Tuesday was Ken Rosenthal’s article at Fox Sports suggesting the Pirates are currently debating John Russell’s future:
“The Pirates are holding internal discussions about the immediate future of manager John Russell, multiple major-league sources say.”
While other media guys are suggesting Russell is on firm ground, I’m here to tell you Russell is not on firm ground and hasn’t been on firm ground since last September. The ground has just started to break up a little bit more lately.
There’s no question he’s lost his team – and some others around him - based on the things I’ve heard, and there’s no question Russell’s decision-making lately has been less than stellar, but what isn’t known is how much Neal Huntington has infected Russell’s decisions. I suspect its more than most people believe.
Regardless, Russell is not the man to take this roster to the next level so it only makes sense he departs asap. It won’t happen while they are trying to sign their upper level draft picks because it will make them look even more unstable than they already are, but it should happen. Gary Varsho has done all the right things over his career as a soldier to get the chance to be the interim manager, but before we start searching for a replacement, Huntington and his band of wonderlust paycheck gypsies need to be pushed out the door too and men who know the game brought in to get the job done.
Kindergarten is over.
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We’ve lost HOW many games in a row? Now we’ll probably see Alvarez come up and he too will fail on the diamond but be a number one hit at the box office. At least Alvarez will hit a few mistake pitches out of the yard along the way.
By Jake, on June 11, 2010, at 10:43 pm | 5 comments
Pirates’ fans saw the true value of Ross Ohlendorf in the third inning of the Tigers game. With men at second and third and no outs, Ohlendorf struck out Santiago, Jackson, and Damon to end the threat.
Pirates’ fans also saw the true value of Ross Ohlendorf as a starter in the fourth inning of the Tigers game. With the Pirates leading 1-0, the Tigers made an in-game adjustment to Ohlendorf the second time through the lineup and became aggressive early in the count. While Ohlendorf was able to record two quick outs, he wasn’t as lucky with the third batter as Boesch cranked a 92 MPH first-pitch fastball, thrown knee-high, over the right field wall to tie the game.
Then Guillen came up and Ohlendorf was wild with his first two pitches showing his frustration. The third pitch was hammered into right field for a double. Joe Kerrigan came out to settle Ohlendorf down but it didn’t help much. Inge then ground a hung slider sharply just inside the third base bag for another double scoring Guillen, Avila hit a soft liner back through the middle scoring Inge, and Santiago hammered a grounder to Iwamura that was gloved for the third out.
I’ve said since Ohlendorf was acquired that I felt he was a 7th inning guy who could give you an inning or two of shut out baseball consistently and Pirates fans got a glimpse of that potential Friday night. Now with that said, I also told you Ohlendorf had been throwing meatballs up to the plate his last few outings but that he had been getting away with it. He threw meatballs Friday night and good hitters took him apart. He has no business in the middle of the plate with his pitches.. he just doesn’t have plus stuff. But that’s where he has been throwing.
Ohlendorf’s velocity has been down all year, his command of his offspeed pitches has been poor most of the time, and his tempo has become a distraction. My guess is that he’s battling a shoulder problem, although he could still be having back problems. He doesn’t look healthy, his arm isn’t throwing like it’s healthy, and he really has no business being in the rotation. But being on the Pirates, he’s getting away with it and actually done well in many of his starts but not because he’s throwing the ball well, that’s for sure.
Take a look at what happened to Ohlendorf Friday night by left hand batters (charts courtesy of Inside Edge Scouting Service):
They saw him pitching inside aggressively the first time through the order and then looked inner-third the next time through and crushed him. Look how much plate he was catching. My-oh-my – and that’s routine for Ohlendorf. When you hang change ups thigh high on the outer third for left hand batters to extend on (red dots on right side of chart), your likely to hit the showers early.
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Doumit had two ground balls his way that I saw and both went past him into the outfield. The one that hurt the most was Avila’s sharp ground ball his way in the 6th which Doumit was so late recognizing off the bat that, not only did he get just one step toward the ball, but he was never able to turn his glove toward the ball. Take a look at this disaster:
There was two outs at the time so if Doumit had even below-average recognition on the play, he would at least had his glove on the ball. This was an easy out (our at least knocked down) by 95% of the first basemen in the game, it was that simple despite being hit sharply. But Doumit seemed to never see it, his glove never turned, his eyes never followed the ball, and his footwork so awkward you almost have to question Huntington having him play there. That was a costly no-play because one run scored on the play and then the next batter went yard. Instead of the inning being over, a 3-1 game turned into a 6-1 game that fast.
I understand he hasn’t played much at first since 2007 but we talked about this all winter – Huntington made a poor decision to open the year with Doumit behind the plate and he cost us games as a result. Now that Doumit has become injury prone again, they moved him out to let teams see he can’t play first because the Pirates never took any time to develop him there and, thus, his value is going to tank even more come July.
Here’s the first one that shot under Doumit’s glove:
The Pirates front office has made so many poor short-term roster decisions over the three years it isn’t even funny and it’s cost us a ton of winnable games. Wins are money to Bob Nutting and how Nutting can continue to accept these poor decisions just amazes me as a fan. I respect that Nutting is a bit clueless in baseball operations but he isn’t stupid – he understands future value being flushed down the toilet. Why he is allowing it… ???
The solution was simple – Doumit should have been dealt last winter. Now it’s too late.
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Anup Sinha breaks down the Pirates draft and tries to answer if the Pirates strategy of selecting so many high school pitchers will work over at Bucs Prospects. Sinha will be at the FSL All-Star Game Saturday and have a report by Sunday.
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Did I tell you Iwamura (Huntington’s guy) would win over at second with Walker (Littlefield’s guy) being the loser? How can Huntington possibly justify moving Walker out? He needs to release Aki.. end of story. Walker has proven he’s not a fluke, he’s not utility, and he doesn’t deserve to be run around the diamond like some gopher boy. Settle him in and let’s see what he can do over 300 AB.
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I want to go back to Lincoln’s start and talk about my reasoning for feeling Lincoln was brought up too early since so many of you have asked. In the lower system Lincoln was able to use his fastball command to get outs and the more he faced better hitters, the more it was evident he wasn’t going to survive as a two-pitch pitcher. His velocity on his fastball had come back since surgery, but the harder he threw the more he missed his locations in the minors. That was even more evident in Indy this year.
For you semi-sabermetric types, in over 300 innings of minor league work Lincoln’s MLE FIP was well over 5 (expected ERA adjusting for park , luck, and removing the defense at the ML level) and his MLE FIP against left hand batters this year alone was near 6 with 35 hits in 31 innings and more than half of those hits for extra bases. Now when you adjust his numbers to the league talent this year he actually faced, and compare it to the rosters he will face, his MLE FIP jumps to near 7 and his MLE FIP against left hand batters jumps to almost 9!
That’s insane.
While he’s going to have trouble with left hand batters, there’s no question about Lincoln’s ability to get a few outs against right hand batters. But at this level it’s not going to come as easy for him as it did in Indy because the talent level is significantly deeper. To give you an idea, in his game Wednesday, he didn’t throw one slider out of the 35 pitches he did throw to right hand batters. The reason for that is simple – is a below-average offering that he needs to work on.
I mentioned in my post about what to expect from Lincoln that he was probably going to get hammered because he’s trying to compete with only two pitches. Sure enough, Nats batters simply sat back and waited for his fastball and then wailed the offering because he doesn’t have the velocity he once had. In the 18 batters that did put wood on his fastball, 8 of them were well-struck resulting in a .444 batting average which is nearly twice the league average. That’s worse than Charlie Morton was getting hammered. It’s too easy to sit back and wait for Lincoln’s fastball — he needs more work on his secondary pitches and that’s why I felt he was being rushed up. John Russell suggested Lincoln was just tight being it was his debut, and I’m sure that added to his problems, but that’s not his main problem.
Anyway, here are three post-game charts for you to look at from Lincoln’s first start courtesy of Inside Edge Scouting Service (click on the image to see the chart full size):
By Jake, on June 8, 2010, at 11:39 pm | 14 comments
0.031
That’s the Pirates percentage of games won more than the Rays and Nats from 2006 – 2009 which essentially cost us Price, Strasburg, and Harper. Three percent – that’s 20 games over 648 played. So tell me, what possible good came from winning those additional 20 games?
And that, ladies and gentleman, defines one of the major problems with the Pittsburgh Pirates long-term philosophy under Nutting control. Sometimes it’s better to admit rebuilding is necessary and mail it in. Had the Pirates done that between 2006 and 2008, our system could have had at least Strasburg, Price, and Alvarez. More importantly, and all things being equal from 2009 on, they would have been on top of the talent that currently fills the system minus Sanchez and Moskos.
Now that would have been a stocked system.
As far as evaluating the 2010 draft, I’ll leave that to the writers at Bucs Prospects who will be posting their conclusions later in the week, but one thing jumped out at me during this draft – newly acquired Florida area scout Rolando Pino didn’t see one pick taken from his region out of the 52 that were selected in the top part of the draft.
I haven’t been able to sit down and analyze the impact over the last few years, but considering the Pirates made changes in more than 40% of their area scouts over the winter (new hires, shifting locations, or adding areas), it sure seems to me that our selections came from a very concentrated area involving just a few area scouts: four selections from Ohio, five from Texas, and four from Georgia out of the first sixteen taken. No offense meant to Brian Tracy but, when I think baseball prospects I don’t think of Ohio having the same level of talent that California, Florida, or North Carolina does. The 2010 draft is certainly no different.
This problem plagued the Pirates drafts for years and years – not being able to identify top talent in the larger prospect areas like California, or else their philosophy was to purposely avoid that talent because of the potential cost factor. Whatever the reason, it hurt us horribly for many years after Scott Littlefield left the organization in the early 2000′s. And the fact we keep having to hire newbie area scouts, we keep shifting guys coverage areas, or adding new territory for them to cover year-after-year can’t be helping. Much like the rest of player development, we have little to no continuity.
I’ll sound off on the Stetson Allie pick by simply saying there was significantly better talent on the board when we took Allie who projects as a closer down the road — IF – he ever develops enough command to find the plate. But more importantly to me, taking Mel Rojas over AJ Cole was equivalent to taking Craig Wilson over Pedro Alvarez. Cole wants somewhere around $4MM to not attend Miami and that’s why teams ran from him — he’s not worth that much which I agree with. But you tell me what you would rather do – spend $4MM on one year of Aki, or $4MM on the potential upside with Cole?
No-brainer.
Cole had lots of faults not the least of were questions on his makeup (competitiveness) and potential for breaking down, and as diverse as the scouts in Florida were on his potential upside, I just don’t see how the Pirates could leave a strike throwing flamethrower on the board because he was $3.5MM more than the org filler they took in Rojas.
If it wasn’t Cole it would be someone else – we just keep missing out on talent and it’s not hard to wonder why considering the Nutting family is isn’t writing the checks.
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A few of you e-mailed asking about my thoughts on us grabbing prep pitchers 1-2. I loved it, regardless of who they were. We can’t win without pitching and I’ve been hammering this org for five years to stockpile arms to no avail. I have been impressed with the intent of the last two drafts, albeit concerned that we have taken too many ‘average’ arms and not enough ‘impact’ arms that were available.
Now it’s up to our development staff and that’s where I start sweating profusely considering who we have down there. But I feel comfortable that we will see wholesale changes once again this winter to make it even more interesting.
Other than that, there just wasn’t very much talent in this draft to get excited over after the first couple of rounds.
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What an electric debut for Strasburg. To be sure, the kid has some filthy stuff. The more I watched him the more I thought of him as Charlie Morton with a GPS and a little bit more of Nolan Ryan’s arm.
Now we’re hearing the Pirates are bringing up Brad Lincoln and Jose Tabata. I assume that means Tabata goes to right, Jones to first, and Lincoln will start Thursday slotted in between Duke and Maholm. But who knows what our knee-jerk front office plans to do – Lincoln might be on the plane tonight to start Wednesday.
I’m not so concerned about Tabata coming up because I don’t see him entrenched in our long-term plan like I see Lincoln and Alvarez. I know the fans do, and I know the Pirates FO hopes he is, but too many question marks revolve around this young man’s head (lack of power, personal problems, just to name a few) for me to believe he’s going to last very long. As for Lincoln, it’s a tough start against the Nationals but since we gave them Karstens for Strasburg’s debut, they might bend over for Lincoln’s. Let’s hope they do.
I wish them both well – obviously – but I’d be remiss if I didn’t express my personal desire as a fan that I wish we weren’t starting clocks with how unstable this organization is right now. I would rather they bite the bullet and remained in Indy while Morris and a few others caught up. I mean, are potential wins this important right now?
Just keep in mind Lincoln’s workload numbers and the fact he’s a Littlefield guy Huntington is bringing him up (watch for 100+ pitch count days or 30+ pitch count innings, high stress environments, Russell leaving him in too long, etc, etc, etc).
Looks like Wednesday’s game might have a chance of being rained out.
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Doumit out with concussion symptoms which makes sense – he’s taken major shots off his head and body the last week or two. I was more concerned with all the right-wrist shots he’s been taking (three at least I know of) than the couple of foul balls off his mask lately, but there’s no doubt he’s been under attack.
Word is that Tony Sanchez is still recovering from his blow to the head on the 3rd and is expected back shortly.
Jeff Clement to Indy. Poor guy – Huntington obviously missed the boat with that acquisition and then missed the boat again on his ability to cut mustard out of camp. That’s a double evaluation whammy. It’s just unbelievable Huntington is still around.
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Speaking of Bradenton, Anup Sinha spent Tuesday at the Marauders doubleheader and will have a report up Wednesday over at Bucs Prospects. This Saturday is the FSL mid-season All-Star Game and Sinha will also be covering that too.
The Curve’s Jose de los Santos was placed on the Disabled List retroactive to June 3 with a left oblique strain and the Marauders placed Brock Holt on DL with a left hamstring problem.
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Chris Duffy, Yasmani Grandal, Bryce Harper, Drew Pomeranz, and Chris Sale are finalists for the Golden Spikes Award presented to the nation’s premier amateur baseball player.
With 19% of the season completed, the Bucs have gone 7-5 last 12 and are currently in 4th place in the NLCD. Our starting pitching appears to be getting on track, our pen has been very good, our bats stale but somewhat clutchy, and our defense suspect. Over the next 13 games, the Bucs play 8 at home which should also help a little.
I don’t think anyone will deny Lady Luck has carried us on fumes to the 14-17 record we enjoy, but there’s also been some very solid play along the way.
Take sophomore Andrew McCutchen for instance. If I took a poll at the start of their season asking you who would be leading the club in home runs by May 10th, would you have picked Jones or McCutchen? Jones, I’d bet. Yet Cutch is hitting the equivalent of 1.2 home runs per nine innings pitched against him. Jones and McCutchen are tied for the number hit but I would have never guessed that possible.
And check this out – the opposing pitcher’s ERA against McCutchen is 5.81. That’s not only the highest on the club, but more than .60 points higher than the next player in Jones, .80 points higher than third highest players in Jaramillo and Doumit, 1.20 higher than Church and LaRoche, and more than 2.00 points higher than Young and the rest of the team.
Let me put his run production into context for you — at his current pace, Andrew McCutchen will surpass Roberto Clemente’s fabulous 1971 season. Think about that a second. No, we don’t have a Willie Stargell in the lineup right now and that’s hurting us. Unquestionably. But what’s hurting us more is our pitching.
Our entire starting pitching expected ERA’s (XERA) are so poor — outside of Jeff Karstens and his couple of starts, they would all qualify well below the worst of the worst (Veale at 4.83) on the ’71 Pirates. Not only at the bottom, but some .30 points higher than Veale’s!
Sure, the season is young and these guys are sinkerball pitchers and have to toast their arms before they get a bit better. Ok.. I’ll hand you that. But they aren’t going to get too much better and that begs the next question –
Should we be the first team to unload starting pitching?
There’s usually quite an advantage for any team willing to give up premium pitching early in the year, and that advantage is paid in impact talent. Zach Duke won’t exactly bring us a Pedro Alvarez, but he will fetch us some exciting young talent and Maholm should fetch us some exciting impact talent.
Two months from now we’ll be lucky to get cans of corn for these guys. Maybe less over the winter.
This is where the Pirates front office is probably in a quandary.. should they keep Maholm and Duke and build around them over the next few years hoping the little impact depth they have in Tabata and Alvarez will make the difference in a run? Or, do they keep on the rebuilding track even though the fan base will go off?
In my opinion, the Pirates have done everything they can possibly do since mid-2009 to devalue Zach Duke as much as possible probably hoping they can sign him to a longer deal at reasonable money. You know how it works – numbers talk and if you don’t have the numbers, you can’t plead for the money. Duke doesn’t have the numbers but some of that is because he’s been handed an empty platter along the way. He’s pitched significantly better than his numbers show. And the Pirates know that.. but when you talk contract extensions, you talk numbers.
So if the Pirates FO is doing everything it can to try to get Duke to sign a long-term extension, that tells me they are sitting on the side of the coin that says they believe they have enough talent to make a run with the pitching they have. If, instead, I’m reading the FO’s motives wrong and they aren’t interested in resigning Duke, or if they know Duke won’t have any part of an extension (unlikely but possible), then trying to sell high on a guy the FO beat down to try to resign on the cheap is going to hurt us in the return column.
Duke isn’t the only one – look at Maholm out there Sunday with Clement and Iwamura back in the lineup, Milledge dropping fly balls at his feet, and Doumit for the first time this year waving his glove behind the dish like it was the American flag. In Maholm’s six starts so far he’s watched so many errors on the field behind him with very few of them recorded as errors, it isn’t funny. Yet he hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs despite the run of bad luck. I’ll be the first one to tell you he hasn’t pitched good, but neither had he pitched bad.
It would seem Hart going down would throw a wrench into whatever plans the Pirates might have had to sell early, but I suggest that Hart being down shouldn’t matter. Burres and Karstens have shown the ability to get ML batters out, Ohlendorf - if his arm and body hold up – has also done the same, and we’ve got Veal in the hole pitching well in Indy. Lincoln has a 5.24 XERA right now which isn’t very good, but he’s been hurt by the long ball which isn’t going to be as easy at PNC.
Throw in other potential variables like a possible healthy Iwamura signing an extension, or the refusal of Duke and/or Maholm to sign one, Doumit’s contract coming to an end with his replacement still a long way off in A-ball, Clement never being able to put his bat on an offspeed pitch, Bryan Morris surprising everyone and showing the world he should be in Pittsburgh in 2011, and so on, and it becomes pretty cloudy. Cloudy because there just isn’t enough depth yet and so that answers the question..
I suggest we continue our rebuilding plan by making Maholm and Duke available right now. The reason I say now are outlined above but even more important is that the club picking these guys up will be thinking that the best these two pitchers have to offer is during the rest of the season and what’s happened to this point really doesn’t matter. In other words, we still have full value (from winter) in these two guys right now.
Last I heard the Pirates wouldn’t even listen to offers on these two players but I think that needs to change.. we need to open our minds and at least listen for a can’t refuse deal that probably will come our way this early.
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Anup Sinha’s latest article at Bucs Prospects explores what we should expect from the 52cd draft pick, which is the Pirates second pick in this year’s draft. And speaking of XERA, Dwight Gill has posted his weekly update to his XERA database which includes XERA scouting grades for the Pirates and Indy teams over at Bucs Prospects. Here’s a sneak preview showing the Indy team (if you aren’t familiar with XERA, think of it as expected ERA):
Looks like we need to give Kratz more innings on the mound!
It’s still early for any grading system to be locked-in yet, but it is nice to see how the players are doing as a whole. I was a little surprised to see how little Alvarez is actually producing so far. Walker is on a mission but he’s probably living off a feast of fastballs like Pearce was doing.
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I’m hesitant to throw this next part up because part of the problem with social networks is that there is no possible way to understand context within the 100 word messages put online. However since it happened, let’s talk about it.
First, click on the image below and read the series of Tweets Perrotto left on his page:
Perrotto claims that the Nuttings have become paranoid and have placed “spies” in the press box at PNC, that the spies are talking “smack” in front of the other beat reporters, that these “spies” are going to management as tattle tales when they hear negative comments in the press box, and that conditions are “ripe” for a “throwdown” in the box.
I e-mailed Perrotto to allow him to respond since so many of you seem to be concerned with the quality of reporting around the Pirates, and he hasn’t replied.
First of all, I’m stunned by how many of you attacked Perrotto’s credibility in your e-mails to me just because he worked for the Nuttings and was fired. I mean, I agree he’s been vocal about his termination much like he has an ax to grind, but that doesn’t mean he’s automatically lying. I just don’t believe he’s going to throw his entire life work down the toilet over a few Twitter remarks unless they had some merit.
As I said, context in instant messaging is about useless so we are left to assume that Perrotto believes ‘the Nutting’s’ (I assume he means Ogden and Robert Nutting) have created a hostile work environment for the beat reporters covering Major League Baseball games at PNC. There’s no question – at least in my mind - Perrotto is crying out for some help.
I don’t know what to make of it, to be quite honest. On the surface it looks like a pissing contest between Perrotto and — I assume — Paul Ladewski who replaced Perrotto at the Nutting’s Pirate Report. I’ve already told you that I heard Ladewski wasn’t very well liked by the fans in Chicago circles so this doesn’t surprise me one bit.
But maybe it’s deeper than that?
As a fan when I hear things like this, the hair on the back of my neck stands up because it smacks of a form of censorship and control. But I can’t figure out why anyone in the press box would give a dang about some nitwit telling others what was said publicly. That is hard to understand. If I were up there, I’d feed the snitch so much BS he would piss in his pants while running to ownership and, when later questioned about the comments – if I ever was, have all my buddies up there say we were simply playing rookie jokes on the guy since Ladewski is in his first year up there.
If I were to guess, I’d guess this isn’t Perrotto’s problem – that he is only the messenger. I’d venture to guess it is Dejan who is being hammered by this guy and Perrotto is being his daddy standing up for him. Don’t forget I told you last year that I’m well aware Dejan isn’t exactly loved by some in the Bucs FO and I started wondering if his ability to cover the team would be hampered by it. I’d say this is probably an extension of that, but that’s just my guess.
Kudos to Perrotto for standing up and shouting. Again.
I personally think he needs to let Dejan (or whoever it is being hammered by the problem child) fight his own battles because a battle like this he can only lose. Why should both of them go down the drain?
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Reds in for three. They are playing very good baseball lately having won 9 of their last 13. Since it’s going to be a cold weather series, we’ll probably not see the amount of runs on the board we could see with these two teams later in the year. Ohlendorf against Arroyo Monday figures to sway the Reds way since Ohlendorf will be trying to put things together more than trying to mow anyone down. Tuesday it’s Cueto against Morton and you have to like the Bucs chances in this game if Morton keeps the ball out of the middle of the plate. Wednesday features Duke vs unknown so we’ll have to wait on that game but I expect to see another very fine performance by Duke.
Think sweep baby. Expect two of three.
If we show up.
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Neal Huntington finally admitted Iwamura’s knee might be limiting his defensive ability. Thanks for updating him, Mr. Fox! Hey, BTW, I wonder if we’ll see a three-man right-side infield shift against the Reds with Duke???
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What a week in fanstasy baseball! Whoa .. all three of my teams won. Not just won but smoked my opponents. Feels good to be able to talk smack knowing dang well I’m about to get hammered this week across the board!
By Jake, on April 26, 2010, at 11:13 pm | 15 comments
It’s pretty easy to see the lack of pitch clustering in Duke’s last start against the Brewers on the 21st. Not only was he up in the zone all that night, he wasn’t commanding his off speed pitches either. Yet notice the number of mistake pitches up in the zone in both games in the two charts below. The outcome difference was that Reds batters did very little with the mistakes where Brewers hitters punished him.
So while Duke seemed to pitch well against the Reds, I suppose you could say he was also pretty lucky. He had pretty much the same movement on his pitches in both games but when he gets his two-seamer up, batters see the ball better and get better swings on it resulting in some very hard hit balls in play. Last night’s game against the Brewers was a repeat of his last start – too many pitches up and the zone and was consequently hammered as a result.
(Professional pitching post-game scouting reports courtesy of Inside Edge).
One of the more obvious tendencies I’ve noticed by batters against Duke over the last year is for them to sit waiting for any pitch thigh high and up. If they get it, they are swinging. Because of that, Duke’s game is to stay in the bottom-third of the plate working both sides staying out of the middle and, when he does that, pitches turn into outs at a high clip. When he misses his spots, he has to pray his defense handles the balls in play.
Unfortunately for Duke, he hasn’t been able to command the bottom-third of the plate as consistently as he did when he first came into the league and he’s paid a price because of it — especially early in the year. And in years when his defense is sub-par like in 2010, more balls in play turn into hits, fewer balls in play turn into double plays, and more runs cross the plate against him.
I’m no scout but it seems to me that Zach Duke attempted a different game plan last night than the one he had in his last start against the Brewers when he seemed to be up in the zone from lack of command. This time out I believe he purposely wanted to pitch up in the zone in batter’s counts hoping for more fly balls outs but, unfortunately, his lack of command hurt him again while his defense also crumbled behind him. That’s two deadly sins for any pitcher.
And the end result was another loss for Duke.
Update 9:30 AM Tuesday morning: here is Duke’s scouting report from last night’s game:
Sure enough, significantly more pitches up in the zone as well as more inside above the knees. Duke has to stay in the bottom half of the bottom-third — look how few chases he had in the two games vs the Brewers. Some teams own some pitchers and Duke is owned by the Brewers. No big deal. You just can’t live up in the zone to good hitting clubs, especially when you refuse to stand some of the hitters up with inside chin music when they are leaning over the plate.
I could go into all the fundamental mistakes made in this game like throwing to the wrong bases, lollipop throws by our outfielders, pitchers not holding runners, Doumit standing on the backside of the plate refusing to block Zaun from scoring (scared??), Iwamura’s very poor range, and the like, but I won’t go into all that. Instead I’ll just say that Iwamura was seen limping around the field and not pushing off hard attempting to range for ground balls, and say that maybe everybody else was just pressing too hard including Doumit who might have thought he was in front of the plate waiting for Zaun?
Ok, well, I tried to get you to smile.
If you have missed all the Brewers games then you have missed some outstanding defense being played by the Brewers. You can’t do anything but tip your hat to them – they are making unbelievable plays line-to-line. There’s a lot of athleticism on that team and it’s all starting to come together.
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A big thank you to John Russell for shaking up the lineup and getting McCutchen back at the top. I’m guessing the only reason Russell finally relented making this change is because Iwamura is playing hurt. But this was way overdue. Russell is too dogmatic with his lineup card.
Funny thing, Cutch drove in two this evening from the one hole which represents 17% of all runs plated in the last 7 games.
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72-12.. that’s how much we’re been outscored in the last 7 games. Am I worried about it?
No, I’m still not worried by what I’m seeing. We’ve got a bunch of sinkerballers all up in the zone and I told you last night that our pen would get tagged, and they did. I suspect we’ll be seeing a lot of late inning runs until we get some stabilization in our rotation. We’re a lot better than what you are witnessing right now. Go to the bank on it.
As a fan what I don’t like seeing all the fundamental mistakes but at the same time, this roster is going through a twice-a-decade ordeal with the full rebuild (for us it seems it’s every four years, but you get the idea). They don’t like it any more than you or I do and, because they are so young, they tend to press a lot more which leads to even more mistakes. Throw in some clubhouse problems and, well, you end up with a mess. It’s not a fun time.
But it will change. Give it a week or so and the air will clear I’m hearing. No sense buying into media’s ‘the sky is falling’ BS just yet. Hang in there with ole’ Jake.
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So Morton has been given a vote of confidence by Huntington and will remain in the rotation. Did I not tell you that would be the case? We just don’t have a choice right now. But a few more stinkers by a soft Morton and he very well might write his name right out of the game.
It is nice to see better decisions coming along like getting rid of Raynor. That didn’t make sense from the git go.
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Bucs Prospects had a scout ready to watch Alderson’s start in Altoona but they were rained out. We’ll be there Tuesday when he throws and there’s a chance we’ll catch Owens game Wednesday too.
Since we’re seeing some good pitching in West Virginia, we’re sending out a scout to pick up Irwin and Baker’s starts Thursday and Saturday too.
I’ve been hesitant to send out too many scouts yet because it’s still early in the season and the guys are just starting to come into form. So stay tuned – the coverage is going to start picking up big time over there.
By Jake, on April 25, 2010, at 8:16 pm | 28 comments
Let’s start this off talking about Morton. A few days ago I mentioned that he had no business making another start as a Pirate and I meant it. Then the other day after hearing that Joe Kerrigan took away his two-seamer in order to try to force him to command his four-seamer better, I agreed with the idea in principle since Morton has a big arm. But Ian Snell had a big arm too with a wipeout slider and he didn’t get very far either.
It’s all in the mindset.
Morton was facing one of the weakest fastball hitting lineups in the NL Sunday and did challenge batters at times, so that was a baby step forward. Unfortunately since he continued to throw up in the zone as well as live off the paint on the sides of the plate, there’s not much positive to find from this outing. His curve remains a plus pitch when he gets on top of it but even that’s become inconsistent, his slider has been average at best with a tighter one here and there but rarely does he have command of the pitch, and his change is non-existent.
That leaves his fastball and the only thing I saw him do differently Sunday than in his recent outings was to take a little off which gave him a little more boring action in on right hand batters. But the movement was so early batters were picking it up too well, albeit he did get a few jam shots and broken bats using it on dead pull hitters.
I don’t know.. I think management will say he took a step forward and will let him make his next start in Los Angeles but I think he gets mauled by Ethier and the Dodgers and that could set him back. What’s worse – a trip to 3A to work on mental and pitching issues, or continued domination by major league hitters?
When I raced greyhounds we used to ‘school’ a ‘stale’ dog by removing him from competition and placing him in a couple of races against inferior competition for him to get on track, and it generally always worked. I wonder what a year in 3A would do for Morton? Maybe he just can’t/won’t relate to Kerrigan? Maybe Doumit will be gone by then? I mean, the dynamics of this club could be significantly different by the time he hits camp in 2011.
Considering we’re really short on pitching, I suppose we won’t see Morton sent to 3A. I know we’re working hard to add an innings eater right now so if we get someone signed or brought in from a trade, maybe then we can afford to send him down.
Back to the game a minute – after Berkman led off the second with a home run, Morton got Pence to ground out and Feliz hit a line drive single to right. With Towels at the plate, Morton threw outside paint at the letters for strike one, came back with inside paint at the letters for strike two, he threw a fastball down the middle of the dish letter high that was fouled off, tossed a ball, and another ball and on that pitch Feliz took off for second. Doumit’s throw (2.16 pop) was a one-hopper that skipped into Iwamura’s mitt well before Feliz reached second but Iwamura never applied the tag until Feliz was safely on the bag. Then on a 3-2 count Morton challenged Towles and he softly lined one into left that would have been a single against any team in the game except the Pirates with their shift. Instead it was a double and Feliz scored. Morton then struck out Manzella and Myers to end the inning.
The third was a bit rougher. Bourn walked on five pitches, Kepplinger popped up to short (Bourn stole second with Doumit airmailing his throw into center but Kepplinger had tipped the ball and had to return to first), then Lee ground one softly that was just out of Crosby’s range (Cedeno gets to it easy) with Bourn off on the pitch and now runners were at first and third with one out.
Berkman came up and on a 2-2 pitch, Lee stole second after Morton failed to make him stop taking a lead, the pitch to Berkman was a ball and he eventually walked to load the bases. Up came Pence and he hit a grounder to short (maybe 15′ from the bag?) that Crosby sat back on then pitched slow to Iwamura to start a double play and by the time Aki’s relay hit Clement’s mitt, Pence was safe at first and a run had scored. I saw Dejan’s account at his blog that suggested it was Aki’s fault that double play wasn’t turned but I saw something entirely different – Crosby simply dragged ass on the play both fielding the ball and making his slow toss to Aki and that killed any chance of catching the swift Pence. Aki’s throw was solid with plenty of arm strength.
Feliz then came up with runners at first and third and two outs now and, after Pence stole second without a throw during the at bat, Morton’s 3-1 hook was lined into center for a single which scored two runs. Morton then hit Towles who had hurt him in the second (intentional?) and Manzella flied out to end the inning.
So I suppose management will suggest Morton did a lot better than his line suggests but that’s a misnomer. Crosby hurt him a couple of times defensively – no doubt about it. But truth be told, Morton didn’t look sharp at all and the score could have been 12-1 just as easily as 5-1 with his work.
One thing I want to bring up is that I keep reading questions about Morton’s pitch selection across media and blogs and I don’t agree that his selection is poor. Or ever has been poor – at least not consistently. He’s trying to live on two pitches – one that runs pretty straight to boot – and he’s attempting to keep batters off balanced the best he can by mixing up those pitches and locations. I don’t have any problem with any of that as a fan – what bothers me is that he’s throwing too many pitches up in the zone and living in the middle of the plate when he needs a strike. Throw in his lack of off speed command and he’s simply too hittable by sitting on his fastball. If he would finish off his pitches on a plane better, if he would get more command of his slider, and if he would think a little more on the mound, maybe things would change for him. But right now he looks lazy and indifferent.. maybe pressing too much, I don’t know.
On offense we started with an Iwamura single in the first and then he was doubled off when McCutchen lined sharply to Bourn in short center. By my eye Aki was safe but he was called out all the same.
In the second Jones ground one back through the box for a single, Doumit lined one into short right for another single with Jones stopping at second, Clement struck out on a nasty hook, and then LaRoche plated Jones with a line drive to center off a hanging Meyers slider. Doumit stopped at second on the play. Morton then struck out missing three bunt attempts (he looks soft in the box like he does on the mound) and then Crosby lined a shot into left for a single but Lee was quick to the ball and Doumit was held at third. Aki then came up and swung at the first pitch (sound familiar? it’s becoming a broken record) grounding meekly to Meyers to end the threat.
The third was a bit more exciting. Cutch led off with a fastball he took the opposite way (yeah!) that found a hole on the right side and, on the first pitch to Milledge, he swiped second. Unfortunately, he was called out despite being on the bag a full second or more before Kepplinger made a swipe tag on him. A reader e-mailed me and said it looked like McCutchen was tagged on his dreadlocks (can you imagine that) while sliding into the bag so I went back and looked at the video in slo-mo and, sure enough based on the one replay I have, he very well might have been. Hat tip to Charles in PA, but I seriously doubt the ump even saw that. I think he was going to ring up McCutchen no matter what. Anyway, Milledge struck out and Jones hit a little grounder to first and that ended that.
Doumit walked in the fourth, Clement struck out, LaRoche ground through the left side with Doumit stopping at second, and then Young hit a bullet back to the mound that bounced once and landed in Meyers glove who had jumped in the air to avoid being hit, if you can believe all that. Meyers then threw to third and the throw bounced once and went perfectly into Feliz’s mitt while he jumped up as Doumit was sliding into him and tagged him out. At that point it was pretty obvious to me that any baseball gods that existed were obviously watching over the other team’s players. Then Crosby capped off his great day off by striking out looking with two on and when I heard Bass’ name being called as the new pitcher, I tuned out and started working on this post (he threw only 5 of his first 15 pitches as strikes).
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Pitching last 6 starts: 7.62 ERA (29th worst) allowing 71 hits including 11 home runs (!) in 52 innings of work and giving up a stunning .387 on base average and .984 OPS. Wow.
Offense last 6 games: batting average below the Mendoza line at .179 (by far the worst in MLB) with an incredible .520 OPS. In 190 at bats we’ve managed just ten extra base hits along the way.
Defense last 6 games: as you might expect with the high ERA, we’re only converting 66% of all balls in play to outs which is the second worst in the game and our .974 fielding percentage is 24th worst.
Is there anybody else who believes it’s time to shake things up a bit? Do the fans not warrant a small chance to input toward org decisions when things are going this poor? If so, then let’s see McCutchen back at the top of the lineup against the Brewers and Aki back down the order (3rd? 5th?). Let’s also see Millege playing about five steps toward the line in left from his shift position with Duke on the mound.
That’s not much to ask, is it?
But hang in there – it seems like the world is caving in but things aren’t as bad as they appear.
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Remember when I told you that the Brewers would ‘get theirs’ in the end after they rung up the score against us the other day? They were just swept by the Cubs. At home. By a 25-4 margin.
What goes around, comes around.
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Speaking of the Brewers series, I should take bets on the under/over on number of hit batsmen over all three games. 3? 5? 0?
We’re starting to hit the ball better which is a good sign and I think we’re close to busting out again. Gallardo is a tough pitcher, especially at home in a packed park, and Duke isn’t exactly the best guy to bet on in an away game. But since our pen has been abused over the last week, I think it’s safe to say that Duke *might* keep the game close since the Brewers are showing some rust, but after he exits it’s going to be a free-for-all.
I don’t think this is going to be a pretty series but I like our chances Wednesday.
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And don’t even ask about my fantasy teams – I was rocked this week as bad as the Bucs were. But hey, I’ll be back next week!
