By Jake, on December 8, 2009, at 11:37 pm | 20 comments
I broke down and bought my six-year-old a set of US Kids Clubs and took him out on a walkable nine-hole this evening and we had a blast. He’s just 45″ tall but amazed me with some serious swing speed from the light driver. While he routinely hit thirty or forty yard drives, one time he drove the ball about seventy-five and his eyes lit up like deer in headlights. Then a little smile came out and he said in an excited voice after I que’d my third tee shot of the day: dad, that’s almost as far as yours! He came home, ran to the playroom, pushed the Wii aside pronouncing it ‘baby stuff’ then grabbed his clubs and started cleaning them.
What an amazing transformation from one day of golf. Aren’t kids great?
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Doumit talk is heating up as we expected but don’t expect the return to be a reliever folks. Come on now.. I’m guessing even Selig would kill that one. And from what I’m hearing, I’m not so sure his landing spot will be Toronto anyway.
Maholm is getting some serious play in the circuit as I suggested he might. I’m starting to think Huntington just might have something close to a workable deal in place for him or he wouldn’t have pushed out the ‘we’d be better waiting until other pitchers are off the board before dealing him because his value would be higher’ type of BS. He’s priming someone knowing he has genuine interest across the game so I suspect he’s closer to being dealt than any of us realize.
All I can hope for is that any return for Doumit, Maholm, Duke, etc, ends up being solid lower level prospects instead of MLB ready type players. I’ve been totally against us feeding our senior club or the first wave from the beginning so I think it’s crucial we start focusing on wave two now (say, low to upper A ball).
Last thought.. trade and free agent value is at the bottom of the barrel, about half to two-thirds what it averaged over the last three years. Obviously clubs are still dealing but from a different stand – they are swapping book value for book value or not doing the deed in many cases. That makes me wonder if we should even be thinking about trading someone like Maholm right now? Trade Doumit now? Sure. Duke? Ok. But Maholm? No, not unless we obtain pre-2009 value for him. I’m guessing he’s one of the few guys left on our roster who very well might command more in July to a contender in need than he’ll fetch this winter. I could be wrong since about one-quarter of his contract value will have been used up, but that’s what I’m thinking.
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My Rule 5 guess, Will Inman, doesn’t seem to be getting much play around the game. There’s something about that kid I’d take a chance on if his medicals are decent. But then again, I would have signed Scheppers too.
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Didn’t I mention the other day that I was concerned about the exodus of national journalists to MLB? Now Peter Gammons is joining them.
How do you spell antitrust lawsuit?
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Not one, but two new Pittsburgh Pirates coverage paywalls going up? Don’t be shocked if you have to start paying for more coverage this season, except here that is.
By Jake, on December 3, 2009, at 10:22 pm | 15 comments
Bobby Crosby? OMG. Why not just let Bixler play and keep the money since his glove is about equal?
Say this with me: Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Cabrera. I’m guessing it would take $11M/2 to get the deal done and he’d be a solid #2 hitter behind McCutchen until one of our kids are ready to come up. I personally don’t buy his off-year with the glove – I think he’s still a +1 win defender and I think he’d kill NLCD pitching. Not only that but he’d sell tickets.
Ok, it won’t happen and we’ll end up with garbage backing up garbage at short this year.. I know, I know.
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We’re in on Nady? Huh?????????? That’s one of the ridiculous rumors. That writer had a brain fart or is trying to help Nady catch a ride somewhere else.
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Ron Villone? Now this one I believe. Nothing like adding 100% pure negative value to the pen to try and win baseball games, I always say.
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Rene Gayo’s replacement hired in Tyrone Brooks? Don’t be surprised.
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Baseball America’s John Manuel ranked the 30 farm systems and placed the Bucs in the 6th – 15th range which is a significant departure from where Jim Callis ranked us (20th or so) just a week ago. Credit goes to Callis who told me he hadn’t actually ranked them yet but he had been saying for a month or two he had the Cubs as middle of the pack in the game and the best in the NLCD. Now Manuel sees them 16th – 25th. Note how Manuel seems to put Sanchez in the same class as Alvarez:
Impressive depth behind top prospects Pedro Alvarez, Tony Sanchez.
Anybody else see the cows flying Manuel seems to see?
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Mike Basso brought in as a pro scout. I wonder who left? Brasso is better known as the “Spokane Handyman” from his days in short season ball. I don’t know much about him but I’ll ask around.
Toshi Nagahara brought in to be Aki’s translator. Well, we knew somebody had to be hired.
Promoted Kevan Graves to assistant director of baseball operations. That’s quite a promotion for Kevan – good for him.
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Maury Brown at the Biz of Baseball website questions the right of the Pirates to pay down debt with revenue sharing money and then Rob Neyer came right back and theorized that for a team like the Pirates to spend an extra $10M per year to add 5 wins isn’t worth the bother.
Both these parties miss the boat, imo.
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I hope to have my main article finished tonight and up before morning. If not, I’ll post it sometime tomorrow which might be better because I have several phone calls to make to finish the research. (Update 12:04 AM Friday – I’m rushing this article and want to wait a bit so I’m able to get more input from additional sources. Look for it Sunday night or Monday morning.)
By Jake, on December 1, 2009, at 11:54 pm | 18 comments
It’s that time of the year when baseball fans tend to give a bit more time to charities and I saw Pirateball.com had an article about the FO execs helping out at a local mission. That’s good stuff. The timing of their work was a bit ironic because for the last two days I’ve been helping a friend of mine film homelessness for a production company. Walking the streets with my Pirates garb on, I was approached by someone (not homeless) who asked if I was a fan and I responded that I was. After a 40 minute conversation he wrote a name and number down and told me to give the person a call.
The name didn’t ring a bell to me despite having consumed every historical artifact available on the Pirates organization I could ever find, so I dialed the number without having done any research not expecting much.
What a huge mistake.
I don’t want to give anything away just yet so I’ll just say I hope to post the article later this week and I think you’ll find it as shocking as the way it landed in my lap. BTW, buy some new socks and keep them in your car and the next time you see a homeless person begging for dinner money on the side of the road, give him a few bucks and a pair of socks and he’ll love you for it.
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Now don’t run away after you read a sentence or two on this next subject because I promise I’ll tie it together at the end and the message is one you’ll want to hear.
Dejan has taken a pissing match with a MLB.com reporter to the next level because his name wasn’t mentioned and/or his story not linked to as first-source when Tom Singer reported at MLB’s Hot Stove that the Pirates were interested in Justin Duchscherer the other day. Here’s a short clip from Prof Jay Rosen at NYU on the value of links in media for those who are curious:
I received one of those anonymous e-mails a couple of weeks ago that I tossed aside when my wife’s grandfather passed away which purported to explain why Dejan is basically useless as a beat reporter anymore. Some of the content I knew, some of it I could guess, and other suggestions surprised me. Still, it wasn’t newsworthy – it was just a state, if you get my drift.
Now before I go any further let me provide a disclaimer here: I have hammered Dejan since he took the job for numerous reasons which I won’t go into here and he’s painstakingly done all he could to avoid linking to my material or this site in his sidebar. Let’s just say we’re not exactly buddies by any means but we have cordially fed each other some information over the years.
That being said, it’s no secret anymore that some beat reporters aren’t exactly happy with MLB’s crop of free-wheeling writers if for no other reason than who employs them. One reason might be because there is a move afoot where sports clubs hire their own reporter which may likely all but kill the local beat down the road (Mark Cuban also mentioned this as a possibility a year or two ago) and thus one possible reason why quite a few beat writers have flocked to MLB.com. Bob Nutting seemed to be making that same move when he hired John Perrotto last year at piratereport.com until he was fired, albeit one so-so source recently said to me that he believed Perrotto hasn’t left despite what we have been told.
Now I won’t go as far to say that the guys covering the local beat even know about the way digital media is changing.. I’m guessing they keep up, but who can read everything? Yet they seem to be acutely aware with things like who links to them and who doesn’t, as you just saw in Dejan’s article above.
Perhaps the MLB reporters threaten the beat guys employment more than even they care to realize? I mean, some believe online game stories no longer work anyway because sites like ESPN and MLB.com already provide a game summary which the fans have access to free of charge so much of the beat reporter’s work becomes somewhat redundant at that point. And what does that really leave them with, fielding calls from agents, players, and the GM for an inside scoop to put behind a pay wall? Talk to players and coaches in the clubhouse who then explain why they sucked one more time on their way to a 90 loss season?
Worthless dribble.
Anyway, what concerns me is that it appears those who are left standing right now are starting to drag each other down as the industry crumbles under their feet. Dejan’s piss-off with MLB.com is one perfect example; there are quite a few other examples out there as well (ie: Perrotto and Nutting is another local one).
Jay Rosen explained in the video above that the value of the link is in the connection between content, ideas, and people but if all we have left are people in save-my-job-mode fighting others as they fight the misery of the industry, then the connection is dysfunctional, the ideas useless, and, as a result, the link is then worthless to the people.
Perhaps that is why Singer didn’t link to Dejan’s work? Probably not. But if I read the anonymous e-mail I received correctly, and knowing what I do from having spoken to Dejan and some folks around the Pirates, you have a right to know that I believe some of the trees in paradise have wilted and it may require new trees to be planted before our Pirates coverage will get to the next level. I hope I’m wrong but after seeing Dejan lash out yesterday ..
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Ken Rosenthal: Mariners are interested in Gregg Zaun. It is starting to appear that Neal Huntington has set the bar too high on Ryan Doumit’s value in the market. There’s still a few teams Doumit fits with but even those are starting to dry up. Don’t be shocked if it is said they wanted to raise his value but then he ends up on the DL next July.
By Jake, on May 18, 2009, at 6:06 pm | Comments are closed
Just thinking off the top of my head as I write about this –
I like Geoff Baker at the Seattle Times – he’s a solid beat reporter who doesn’t fill his column with self-serving BS like we see in Pittsburgh. Baker has evidently sniffed out some Jack Wilson-for-Yuniesky Betancourt talk in the circuit which has lit up my e-mail box today.
First the obvious, or not so obvious. The Pirates probably don’t make this move without a) believing we need him up the middle through 2012 and then b) expecting to pay out his entire contract – about $14.35MM/4 years (assuming his signing bonus has already been paid by the M’s, or will be). Wilson is due about $14MM/2 years if his option is picked up, so the money appears to be close with the only difference the contract time.
But that’s three-plus years of Betancourt at short. Do we need him there – would he be blocking anyone? Brian Friday at 2A is probably the closest non-marginal prospect we have and we can’t expect him to contrbute until late 2010 at the earliest which is when Wilson heads to free agency if we pick up his 2010 option. So on the surface, our next wave covers the gap and there is no reason for this trade.
By Jake, on January 25, 2009, at 12:02 am | Comments are closed
I’ve been enjoying all your emails about Piratefest and the caravans. That’s good stuff. Sure the team isn’t quite where we want them to be but you still have to stand behind the organization. I’m glad to see many of you are participating.
Get out and feel gushy about the Pirates!
While you can.
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Numerous emails about media reports in San Francisco and other places reporting there is a trade in the works – Adam LaRoche for Jonathan Sanchez. And some reports even have us getting another player with Sanchez.
How bizarre.
I don’t know any possible way my post about that trade idea could have been construed as something I heard whispered in the circuit, which it obviously wasn’t. As it all unraveled I found out how the rumor started becoming a fact.. it was being pushed by someone in the Pittsburgh area who is a master at rumors. Needless to say, I’m learning from the seat of my pants how some folks in the media fraternity like to play hardball with others outside that good old boy network.
Live and learn.
And no, I haven’t heard any whispers about Adam LaRoche being traded. Or Matt McSwain either (you can rest at ease Rev. McSwain).
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Jack Wilson dissed Piratefest and the fans. Hilarious. Gee, I guess we can count on his great attitude helping the club in 2009. Huntington needs to wake him up by letting Bixler break camp with the team.
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The new jerseys are pretty kewl. Sleeves are a must – the players have been complaining about the sleeveless jerseys for way too long. And thank gosh all of McClatchy’s red is finally gone.
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I’m pretty involved in a swing-and-miss study right now and thought I’d post the Pirates rates for the last seven years.
The chart below shows how many opposing batter’s plate appearances had either 0, 1, 2, or 3 swing-and-misses over each year. 2004 is highlighted because it stands out as the Pirates best in the seven year span.
What you need to focus on is the consistent reduction of three swing-and-miss plate appearances.. from 0.9% in 2004 to 0.5% (it was actually 0.49% but is rounded in the chart) in 2008. As you can plainly see, as that rate fell, so did K/PA while the team ERA also rose.
This is important because the new regime has preached about swing-and-miss rates since taking over and have continued that theme by trying to add “power” arms ever since.
Obviously it will be next to impossible for the 2009 staff to go any lower than 0.49%. Not only is that the worst performance by a Pirates staff since 2002, it was also second lowest in the game to the Orioles in 2008 who had a ridiculous 0.27% — the lowest of all 210 team staffs since 2002.
Now granted, the overall number difference between a 0.9% and a 0.5% rating isn’t very many batters.. about 20 fewer strikeouts on three swing-and-misses over the entire year. That doesn’t sound like much at all, does it? It’s not.. you’re right. But the significance is enormous, as I’ll show you when I post the study.
Also you should know that three swing-and-miss strikeouts are declining year-by-year anyway. I assume that has more to do with improved video, the push for moneyball’ish type of contact hitters, and probably the growing lack of experience in catchers. The Reds had the highest rate in 2008 with a 0.83% and they just broke the 85 percentile of all 210 staffs since 2002.
But interestingly, we’re not seeing more and more clubs at the bottom of the pile, although the 2008 Orioles were quite the exception to the rule. Instead, the game is seeing less fluctuation between staffs and more hovering around the median since 2002. It’s pretty fascinating stuff.
Lastly, I think it’s important to recognize the value of an experienced catcher. I can’t emphasis it enough – Ryan Doumit’s presence behind the plate has hurt our staff a lot more than any of you could ever imagine. And it’s getting worse instead of better, contrary to public opinion.
Look at the huge decline in our stats from 2004 to 2005. Jason Kendall was handling the staff in 2004 and Ryan Doumit caught about 50 games in 2005. Sure, we had a pretty rough pitching staff in 2005.. I agree. But so did we in 2006 with all the rookies but we still improved some. Right, Doumit only caught a hand full of games.
And no, it wasn’t all Ryan Doumit’s fault.. but when you see how much the stats tilted when he was in the game vs. when he wasn’t, you’ll get a better picture. This isn’t an anti-Doumit thing because I realize like you do we’re stuck with him back there no matter what now. But it is what it is.. some offensive catchers don’t hold much positive value when it’s all said and done.
As I narrow down the performances across numerous stats by catcher experience in the league like the percentage of called strikes, value of balls put in play, number of runs allowed by the battery, and the like, you’re going to be rather shocked how much a catcher actually plays into a team’s defense.
We’ll monitor stats like these to evaluate Neal Huntington and his field staff over time. Right now there isn’t any place to go but up so expect to see a rebound in pitching performances. If the bats come around and we see more Baseball God luck than not during the year, we might be able to make a run for the Astros and fifth place.
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Nate the Great a bit dissappointed the Bucs didn’t come running with a long term deal? I think he’ll get one but they will wait him out to see if he was a one-year wonder or not. That’s good for Nate and good business sense.
By Jake, on December 12, 2008, at 1:01 am | Comments are closed
December 30, 2006 – Bucco Blog was the first to report that there was an impending ownership change on the horizon two weeks before the Pittsburgh Pirates made the announcement that Bob Nutting was taking over. Obviously at the time we didn’t know who the new owner would be.
December 12, 2008 - Mounting evidence is suggestive that there may be another ownership change on the horizon.
In 2006 I had a credible ‘inside’ type source come send the rumor and, indeed, it turned out to be fact. I don’t have a source like that this time. Instead, I’m hearing whispers from credible people.
I can’t get anyone from the Pirates or anyone around the group I knew to be interested to either deny the rumor or admit to it. Nothing.. they have all become stone deaf all of a sudden. Obviously if there is a pending sale, that’s what I should expect – silence. I suspect if I’m 100% off the wall with all this I’d probably get the same treatment – silence.
So who knows?
But I’ve been following this club intensely for the last seven years and there are times gut instincts rule the roost and this is one of those times. Far too many obvious things are either not happening (salary dumps, trades, internal movement, and other signings) or are happening (recent liquidation of assets by the one group known to be interested and my hearing the Nuttings might entertain an offer a month or two ago).
It’s all circumstantial at best but it tends to support the whispers I’m hearing.
So there you go. I’m sure after some of the folks read this post I’ll get emails either telling me I’m nuts or there is nothing happening, and I’ll share what I can with you if I do.
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Donnie Veal picked up in Rule 5. I saw him in 2006 in the Florida State League and he was throwing gas. I didn’t have a gun on him but he was very impressive – good command of three pitches, throwing with confidence, acceptable mechanics, and a solid mound presence. Later that year I heard Buford blew the kid’s arm out but he came back and pitched again in 2007 and 2008, so I guess that was bad info.
There is no way Veal sticks all year without some tinkering so I’m going to assume the Bucs intend to put the young man under the MRI and find out his labrum has never fully healed from college days, and then shut him down putting him under the knife to keep him around. Otherwise, we just lost a ton of money because the kid makes Tyler Yates look like Nolan Ryan and we all know how wild Yates is.
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I can see Snell as an Angel.. I think he’d do very well there. I doubt he’d ever be traded there, but I could see him there.
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Long term deals to Maholm, McLouth, and Doumit. Wow.
I’m sorry but I don’t buy into giving big money deals to players who are undeserving. Doumit has yet to play one full season of baseball and McLouth is a one-year wonder right now. Those aren’t the kind of players you offer long-term deals to. You wait and make them prove their worth even though they are drawing attention. I’d wait until mid-2009 before I worked their deals.
Maholm is more than deserving and the Pirates are nuts if they don’t go after him for at least a five-year deal. They won’t do that of course, but they should in order to create the highest amount of surplus value down the road.
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Ramon Vazquez.. $4M/2. Wow.. for a guy who is so limited both offensively and defensively, talk about an over-pay. What possible reason would justify signing Vazquez, much less to a two-year deal?
Poor signing, especially when you consider all his offense was generated in Arlington.
By Jake, on December 9, 2008, at 11:02 pm | Comments are closed
It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas, everywhere I read… Ah, the winter meeting’s rumor mill, there’s nothing like it to keep our hope souls warm during the winter. Unfortunately, most of them are ill-coinceived, false, or just plain ridiculous.
Like the Braves wanting Paul Maholm.
Joseph said in yesterday’s comments:
“Jake, I hope you saw the McLouth and Maholm Braves rumors. I know there are all kinds of rumors flying around this time of year, but if DK reported it then I think it might have something ot it.”
Joseph let me just say this – if your newspaper was near bankruptcy and they spent an insane amount of money sending you to Vegas to cover an event that nothing was happening at, how could you justify not producing something for them? Enter stage left, Dejan’s rumor mill.
Look, the Braves have about as much interest in Paul Maholm as the man in the moon for one obvious reason – they aren’t about to give up what it would take to get him.. think Jason Heyward who I have as the 14th best prospect in the game right now (I have McCutchen at 12th).
And that’s where that ends.
Plus, let’s not forget the Braves have all the #3 – #5 guys they need already in their system in Jurrjens, Reyes, Morton, Campillo, and Hanson just to name a few.. they are stocked. What they lack is a top of the order guy which they aren’t likely to land.
Us dealing Nate McLouth? That’s a horse of a different color but will the Braves actually push out the door the prospects needed to get him? More importantly, does he really fit their need of a power corner? In NLED parks? Hmm..
Neither of those two rumors appear to have any realistic foundation. I’m not saying the Braves didn’t inquire, I’m just saying the validity of the Braves inquiry was probably no different than any of the other 28 clubs checking around to see who is available.. cheap.
Now if Neal Huntington was to announce that he’d take B/C type quanity again instead of quality, then several clubs might line up for any number of our players. For Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, and Ronny Paulino, that makes sense. And in my book, I can see the quanity game played out to include Ian Snell, Nate McLouth, John Grabow, Denny Bautista, or Tyler Yates.
But for Maholm, Gorzelanny, and Doumit, he better get significant impact back if he deals any of them in the next 12 – 18 months.
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Folks stay focused – this is a Nutting/McClatchy club. If we make any deal at all it’s going to be to shed salary, not deal youth who are playing cheap unless we are blown out of the saddle, and that’s not likely to happen.
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David Eckstein playing for the Pirates? Puh-lease. Bring up Bixler.
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Many of you keep asking about Pedro Martinez. Forget it.. I don’t see that happening.
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Do I understand this correctly – pitchers report February 13th and our first game is February 25th? That’s nuts.. I wonder how many arms we’re going to break this year? Kerrigan better be babysitting from mid-Janaury on.
By Jake, on November 21, 2008, at 11:39 pm | Comments are closed
First of all, let me show you a new feature I’ve added to the blog. If you look on the navigation bar under the logo of the site you’ll see a link for “Rumor Mill” where I will be posting the gossip I hear around the league. Check there often because I’ll post updates there and and not in a site post during the day. Also, if you haven’t already tried the “News” link right next to it you’re missing a lot of news around the game.
That said, the latest whispers in the circuit are that the Pirates are entertaining an offer for Jack Wilson from the Tigers in what has grown into a possible three-team deal. There’s no word how far along this is, no word who the players might be yet, and why the Marlins might be involved, but the whispers are growing so it’s obviously more than an inquiry. I’ll throw more on the Rumor Mill page as I get it.
Now you can start your wild imaginations flowing. Just think, Porcello for…
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Well traveled Matt Walbeck will be joining the Bucs development system this year. Considering the depth of his credentials – and no, not his above acting credentials, his musical credentials, or his munchies cooking credentials – he should be a plus addition into our lonely system. I believe he was in the Rays system with Richie Hebner at one point, but I might be wrong.
I asked an opinion on the hire from a NL cross-checker who knows Walbeck and he said:
“Great hire. Relentless worker, good coach.”
Too bad Walbeck wasn’t around last year when one of his previous charges, Jair Jurrjens, was being offered up for Wilson. Anyway, the odd thing about the hire is that the Pirates evidently don’t know where he fits in yet and he has to wait to know where he’ll be assigned. Perhaps we have additional plus-plus guys ahead of him that are having to make up their mind? That would be good stuff, if true.
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So JvB walked, eh? That’s ok, he’ll probably only make it to the corner before he turns around and comes back. What a great guy.
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Hey what do you know, I made Tango’s site. That’s a first. He had a great idea about looking at the “at” pitch counts instead of the “through” counts in Snell’s chart I posted yesterday. That’s good stuff and we’ll have to do some of that down the road. I’m still in the process of building my API’s, if anyone is really interested.
To those that wanted my MySQL trigger script, I emailed it to each of you so look in your spam box if you haven’t received it. Today I spend 70 minutes writing an SPSS pitch count syntax based on the PITCHf/x data that would do the same thing it took me hours to do in MySQL, so I’ve migrated there. Live and learn. If anyone needs that, let me know.
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A couple of reader’s questions:
“Here’s my question - we’ve heard about Byrd and Pedro why not bring both? If Maholm wins 10 plus games and Byrd and Pedro each won 10 games we in reality don’t have any other 10 game winners beating down the internal door. With Snell and the gang we have nothing but question marks. Three solid starters would certainly be an upgrade from 5 question marks.” — LM (Pittsburgh?)
I see your logic but I’m not sure I agree with it. Think about that guy in the tractor collecting balls at the golf range who is protected by a steel cage. One player last year told me he felt like he was in that tractor without the cage when he was on the field. Now if we add Byrd to that mix I would bet he would say he felt like he was naked collecting the golf balls.
As for Pedro, I just don’t know enough about his health to form an opinion other than to say, if he still has a live arm, some movement on his pitches, can find the plate, and is healthy, I can’t imagine why the Mets or another organization wouldn’t offer him a better deal than we probably could.
I think I like the idea of the question marks pitching this year – let’s see who can get to the next level and who can’t, who can stay healthy and who can’t. But that’s me.
“You can’t be serious about wanting to trade Ryan Doumit Jake. Tell me you were kidding.” — about 20 readers
Yeah, that suggestion didn’t go over to well with the readership, that’s for sure.
Heck yeah I deal him – he has yet to play a full season healthy, he’s proven he can sit behind the dish and receive the ball, he can certainly hit, and there are a few clubs with impressive youth looking for, or to upgrade, a catcher. It’s not easy getting teams to give up quality prospects so, sure, I’d deal him for the right package. Heck, I’d deal anyone not named McCutchen or Alvarez for the right return.
