One of the most bizarre statements of the winter that I heard came from one Pirates exec when he said something to the effect of:

Our young players tasted success in the second half that we believe will serve to be their catalyst in 2010.

The ‘taste’ the exec was talking about was the August 17th – 27th homestand where we ran off a 7-2 spurt by pounding out 5 runs per game while holding the Reds, Phillies, and Brewers to under 3 runs per game.  Unquestionably, it was the roster’s finest hour over a very poor season. 

I’ve talked numerous times this winter about the internal debate on Federal Street regarding this very issue – some believe they have enough pitching to compete even with below average offense.  But how realistic is that thinking?

No matter what side of that argument you stand on, the fact remains that our roster limped down the stretch in their last 2300 at bats.  Simply put, it’s hard to win games when you can’t crack .700 OPS over an extended period of time. I think the last 36 games is a good example of how this roster will play in 2010 before Alvarez comes up.. they went 9-27 (.300) and were outscored by 2.1 runs per game on average.

Remarkably, they went 3-3 in their last road trip despite being outscored by almost a 1/2 run per game.  The Pirates execs might argue they generated luck because of good pitching (sub 4 ERA) and that’s what they hope to accomplish in 2010.  I’d argue that we won the doubleheader in Chicago playing in low 50’s, high 40’s weather with wind blowing off the lake, and then got our butts kicked two of three by a mentally defeated Reds squad. It wasn’t a pretty end of the season by any stretch of the imagination and, if anything, we had the wind knocked out of our sails when we couldn’t muster but 2 runs per game against the Dodgers and Astros September 11th – 16th while our pitching posted a sub 4 ERA. 

Look closely at those batting averages from July 23rd on — that’s about as ugly as it gets folks with four of the nine groups (24 games) at .225 or less and ERA’s above 5 in five of the nine groups.

How realistic is it to think we have enough pitching to contend with the less-than-impact bats we have?  Should we expect 5 runs per game in offense?  I think that’s possible, but certainly unsustainable. So let’s assume 4 runs per game is more probable with 3.5 runs average per game most likely.  What will be required of our pitching to keep us close every game at 3.5 runs produced on offense? For every 100 games (810 innings pitched) where we allow only 3.5 runs per game on average would require a collective ERA of 3.78 ERA just to keep the opposition at 3.5. 

Do you know how improbable it is for a pitching staff to throw a collective 3.78 ERA across 160 games anymore?  It’s happened just 12 times since the 2005 season led by such incredible staffs like the Padres with Young and Peavy, the Red Sox in Beckett and Schilling, the Blue Jays with Halladay and Burnett, the Dodgers in Lowe, Kershaw, Wolf, and Billingsley, and the Giants with Lincecum and Cain.  I’m sorry to say we don’t have one pitcher – in Pittsburgh or in our minor league system – who resembles any of those men.  Not even close.

So something has to give.. either we have to score more than 3.5 runs per game on average or we’re going to lose an obscene number of games again in 2010.  Which will it be?

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I’m very, very bummed out about the upcoming year. I realize it’s yet another development year in Pittsburgh, and I realize the fans think they have a possibility of seeing 70+ wins, but I’m here to tell you I can’t get any model run to come out with more than 62 wins.  Where PECOTA is finding the other 8 wins is beyond me because this is a 100 loss team no matter how aggressive you get with Alvarez, Clement, and Morton.  (Update at 11:08 PM Monday.. PECOTA projection remains at 70 wins despite the fact they just shaved 83 runs scored off from the initial projection. Oh, and they also shaved 80 runs off runs allowed for some reason plus the Cards score the most runs in the division at only 724!  Unbelievable stuff.)

We have too little power, a significantly unbalanced defense, and rookies waiting in the wings to add more unstableness.  Hammer me all you want but it’s just not going to be a pretty year.

Except for laying down a few bucks on our Bucs, that is.  I think Vegas and the rest of the world are going to be fooled by our roster this year leaving a wide open door for some outrageous opportunities for fans like us to make a small fortune from side bets.

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Preliminary Sleepers and Foolers for 2010

Sleepers

Dotel – think Mike Gonzalez on steriods and that’s how much fun Dotel is going to have.

Crosby — someone is going to have to step up and take charge in the Bucs inexperienced infield and Crosby is just the guy to handle the job.  Look for a breakout type year from him as a utility man who plays too much.

Veal — the guy nobody believed in goes to 3A and uncoils a ridiculous sub 2 ERA in his first 10 starts and then comes up to Pittsburgh to replace Duke and ends up winning more games than any starter.

Doumit – he smells his exit from Pittsburgh and runs off a .320/.385/.490 line in his first 50 games and is then dealt to the Rangers. If he isn’t dealt, he’ll be on the DL the rest of the year.

McCutchen - April and early May won’t be his best months but by mid-August will be causing a ticket selling frenzy everywhere he plays.  It’s the year of the Cutch.

Foolers

LaRoche - he knows if he tanks early he’s going to be dealt away from the land of suits and misery.

Duke – how do you spell ERA above 9?

Jones – he just can’t get around high and tight heat and the league finally adjusts.

Milledge - will he last 40 games before going on the DL?  I don’t think so.

Ohlendorf – his head is still in Washington dreaming about all the heifers he met.

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A very special interview with a very special person, he says.  Almost has a Pee Wee Herman ring to it, huh?  Man I miss Joe Rutter.  If you want to skip the interview I’ll give you a quick transcript of what was said that was meaningful: 

nothing

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The Reds signed Orlando Cabrera for $4M.  Wow.  That’s a deal that will come back to haunt the Bucs.  Mark it down.

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I forgot to mention that the other day I saw where Huntington was talking about competing and mentioned the 2012 – 2013 seasons.  That’s typical for a GM to talk one year further out than he is inked for so I suspect we’re about to see him get a two-year extension.