By Jake, on July 25, 2010, at 11:48 pm |
It’s plays like the one you see above where Pedro Alvarez tried in vain to corral Yorvit Torrealba’s average-hit ground ball in Sunday’s game which is causing internal grief inside the Pirates organization. You see, internally the Pirates are debating whether or not to move Alvarez to first base sooner than later because his footwork leads many to believe he’s never going to be an adequate third baseman.
And that’s where the grief starts.
What’s making the Alvarez debate interesting is that there are some who argue that because Alvarez is pigeon-toed it’s likely he’ll never be able to make the corresponding first moves necessary to even get to the next level. Call it ‘the internal belief’ factor, if you will. Then there are others who point to his thickness and still others who point at his instincts.. all trying to justify why Alvarez isn’t a fit at third defensively. In other words, it’s Alvarez that is the problem.
While those I spoke to around the game wouldn’t point fingers, one thing has become crystal clear – the Pittsburgh Pirates are not showing they have a desire to see Alvarez get to the next development level. And it’s not just Alvarez.. it’s Milledge, and Tabata, and Cedeno, and Jones.. it’s the entire core group. They are floundering, and floundering for a reason.
Last year two-a-days three times a week were automatic.. this year PNC Park is a ghost town when our young Bucs are in town. The net result of the decreased emphasis in development is showing up in poor fundamentals as well as the extremely high error rate.. the Pirates have already accumulated 73 errors in 98 games which is the highest rate since 2003. Last year the Pirates had only 73 errors over the entire year.. one of the lowest rates in quite a few years.
While you can argue the 2009 season began with Wilson/Sanchez/Adam LaRoche while also forgetting Wilson and Sanchez both hit the DL, you have to also consider that 60-80 games were played with the likes of Young/Vazquez/Andy LaRoche/Pearce/and Cedeno. And don’t forget for one second that those players were raw when they came to us.. Cedeno’s footwork was horrid, LaRoche was an error-machine, and Young at second was perhaps the worst defender at the position for us in decades. Yet those young pups finished the year strong.. so strong the Pirates remained at the top of the league in fielding.
Doumit is still catching and McCutchen is still in center, yet look at our defensive runs saved chart between 2009 and 2010:
We’re already -60 runs and every single position has declined. Not one position, not four, not six.. all nine. Now consider this.. that’s an average of -0.61 defensive runs per game which means we’re on course to end the year with an insane -100 defensive run swing from 2009. That’s crazy high.
Throw in the 86 stolen bases we’ve allowed on top of the 73 errors we’ve made, and then subtract the 18 we caught stealing, the Pirates now lead the major leagues in giveaway bases at 141 over 98 games which is 30% higher than the major league average.
When you look at the Pirates fundamental play on the field today versus where they were at just six weeks ago, you see a declining defensive core. What we are witnessing are the fundamental flaws in our development system, not fundamental flaws in player productivity. These players need better instructors, they need better motivators, and they need more commitment from the Pirates front office, all of which are failing them.
Going back to the internal grief, the Pirates seem to want to take the path of least resistence to accomplish their development goals instead of making good short-term decisions. Moving Alvarez to first might indeed be the right answer, I don’t know. But there’s no way to tell without an increased emphasis on development. Based on numerous reports I’ve received, Carlos Garcia isn’t the answer as an infield instructor – it’s over his head for numerous reasons. It’s a shame Perry Hill isn’t around but maybe the Pirates can bring him back, I don’t know. But something has to give as our direction is totally unacceptable.
This is also another perfect example why John Russell is failing as a manager. He is charged with managing the core operations of development with his staff and, while he might not be able to entirely help who is on his staff, he has failed to account for the growing dysfuncation in fundamental baseball play. He’s accountable.. not Neal Huntington, and not Frank Coonelly. It’s John Russell.
The current fielding chart is at the end of this post for you to play with but, no matter which column you sort, you’ll get the same answer – the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates, as assembled, are one of the worst fielding teams we’ve had in this decade. We’re never going to turn a -60 defensive run squad into a positive figure the way we’re going about our business – forget that.
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Brad Lincoln was mercifully demoted to 3A after his Sunday start. Lincoln’s promotion is just another example of the poor developmental system we have in place all across this organization. Pirates management didn’t even bother to consult with some of their better evaluators before making the decision to promote Lincoln.. they just did it, and that pissed off some people in the organization.
Lincoln was clearly unprepared to compete at the major league level.. he never had a chance. You can point the finger anywhere you want but at the end of the day it was Neal Huntington who made the move.
Hopefully he’ll rebound.
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More scathing news over the next few days because there’s just too much to put in one post.
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Nothing new on the trade front other than we’re working to deal for a pitcher. I can’t tell you much about it because I don’t know that much, but it might be part of a bigger trade. We’ll probably start hearing more the next couple of days. Stay tuned.
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Anup Sinha has a nice article up at Bucs Prospects on prospect Alex Presley.
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In fantasy action, I went 3-0 this week and the two teams I drafted are now 11-5 and 13-3 (unbelievable), and the other team is 8-8.
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Here’s the current defensive stats:
| Team | LG | G | INN | TC | TC/INN | PO | A | E | DP | PB | SB | CS | E+SB-CS | E/G | DER | FPCT |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | 98 | 855.7 | 3647 | 4.26 | 2567 | 1007 | 73 | 76 | 7 | 86 | 18 | 141 | 0.74 | 0.698 | 0.980 |
| Boston Red Sox | AL | 99 | 894.0 | 3720 | 4.16 | 2682 | 977 | 61 | 81 | 10 | 104 | 25 | 140 | 0.62 | 0.714 | 0.984 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | 99 | 880.0 | 3665 | 4.16 | 2640 | 958 | 67 | 87 | 10 | 89 | 24 | 132 | 0.68 | 0.692 | 0.982 |
| Chicago Cubs | NL | 98 | 870.0 | 3607 | 4.15 | 2610 | 921 | 76 | 79 | 3 | 75 | 21 | 130 | 0.78 | 0.707 | 0.979 |
| Florida Marlins | NL | 98 | 872.0 | 3593 | 4.12 | 2616 | 899 | 78 | 83 | 6 | 79 | 29 | 128 | 0.80 | 0.699 | 0.978 |
| Kansas City Royals | AL | 98 | 865.3 | 3628 | 4.19 | 2596 | 963 | 69 | 87 | 4 | 84 | 29 | 124 | 0.70 | 0.700 | 0.981 |
| Los Angeles Angels | AL | 100 | 883.7 | 3680 | 4.16 | 2651 | 964 | 65 | 74 | 11 | 79 | 25 | 119 | 0.65 | 0.701 | 0.982 |
| Cleveland Indians | AL | 98 | 860.3 | 3805 | 4.42 | 2581 | 1152 | 72 | 119 | 7 | 76 | 31 | 117 | 0.73 | 0.699 | 0.981 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | NL | 100 | 888.3 | 3686 | 4.15 | 2665 | 955 | 66 | 91 | 3 | 70 | 20 | 116 | 0.66 | 0.683 | 0.982 |
| Texas Rangers | AL | 98 | 886.7 | 3647 | 4.11 | 2660 | 922 | 65 | 86 | 4 | 69 | 25 | 109 | 0.66 | 0.725 | 0.982 |
| Baltimore Orioles | AL | 98 | 865.3 | 3631 | 4.20 | 2596 | 968 | 67 | 84 | 2 | 55 | 17 | 105 | 0.68 | 0.692 | 0.982 |
| New York Yankees | AL | 97 | 862.3 | 3536 | 4.10 | 2587 | 908 | 41 | 95 | 8 | 79 | 16 | 104 | 0.42 | 0.719 | 0.988 |
| Washington Nationals | NL | 99 | 869.3 | 3710 | 4.27 | 2608 | 1022 | 80 | 80 | 2 | 40 | 19 | 101 | 0.81 | 0.701 | 0.978 |
| Detroit Tigers | AL | 96 | 851.3 | 3614 | 4.25 | 2554 | 991 | 69 | 103 | 5 | 57 | 30 | 96 | 0.72 | 0.703 | 0.981 |
| Atlanta Braves | NL | 98 | 871.3 | 3761 | 4.32 | 2614 | 1080 | 67 | 109 | 4 | 57 | 28 | 96 | 0.68 | 0.711 | 0.982 |
| Houston Astros | NL | 98 | 864.0 | 3673 | 4.25 | 2592 | 1014 | 67 | 89 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 92 | 0.68 | 0.678 | 0.982 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | NL | 98 | 872.0 | 3701 | 4.24 | 2616 | 1028 | 57 | 95 | 5 | 54 | 19 | 92 | 0.58 | 0.716 | 0.985 |
| Seattle Mariners | AL | 99 | 885.3 | 3709 | 4.19 | 2656 | 982 | 71 | 88 | 12 | 34 | 15 | 90 | 0.72 | 0.716 | 0.981 |
| San Francisco Giants | NL | 99 | 893.7 | 3608 | 4.04 | 2681 | 888 | 39 | 72 | 5 | 82 | 33 | 88 | 0.39 | 0.714 | 0.989 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | 99 | 889.0 | 3760 | 4.23 | 2667 | 1025 | 68 | 84 | 6 | 49 | 30 | 87 | 0.69 | 0.705 | 0.982 |
| Oakland Athletics | AL | 98 | 872.7 | 3700 | 4.24 | 2618 | 1023 | 59 | 74 | 5 | 51 | 23 | 87 | 0.60 | 0.723 | 0.984 |
| Colorado Rockies | NL | 98 | 874.7 | 3733 | 4.27 | 2624 | 1051 | 58 | 109 | 10 | 53 | 25 | 86 | 0.59 | 0.704 | 0.984 |
| Chicago White Sox | AL | 97 | 861.3 | 3663 | 4.25 | 2584 | 1025 | 54 | 96 | 2 | 57 | 28 | 83 | 0.56 | 0.700 | 0.985 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | AL | 97 | 872.7 | 3616 | 4.14 | 2618 | 946 | 52 | 83 | 5 | 51 | 21 | 82 | 0.54 | 0.724 | 0.986 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | NL | 98 | 878.7 | 3810 | 4.34 | 2636 | 1108 | 66 | 108 | 5 | 28 | 24 | 70 | 0.67 | 0.711 | 0.983 |
| New York Mets | NL | 99 | 890.0 | 3699 | 4.16 | 2670 | 983 | 46 | 100 | 5 | 34 | 15 | 65 | 0.46 | 0.698 | 0.988 |
| Cincinnati Reds | NL | 100 | 899.3 | 3762 | 4.18 | 2698 | 1024 | 40 | 94 | 2 | 47 | 22 | 65 | 0.40 | 0.713 | 0.989 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | AL | 98 | 871.7 | 3713 | 4.26 | 2615 | 1049 | 49 | 105 | 3 | 40 | 25 | 64 | 0.50 | 0.703 | 0.987 |
| San Diego Padres | NL | 97 | 882.3 | 3694 | 4.19 | 2647 | 1009 | 38 | 81 | 9 | 51 | 27 | 62 | 0.39 | 0.718 | 0.990 |
| Minnesota Twins | AL | 99 | 882.3 | 3704 | 4.20 | 2647 | 1023 | 34 | 94 | 5 | 45 | 19 | 60 | 0.34 | 0.697 | 0.991 |
By Jake, on July 11, 2010, at 9:44 pm |
First things first, I’m planning on upgrading this site’s software over the All-Star break and will be back posting after Friday’s game against the Astros. So if you see things looking weird here and there over the next few days, you’ll know what is going on. For all you betting fools out there, I’ll post Jake’s Take selections Thursday night. If anything breaks, I’ll try to post an analysis but I’m not sure much will be happening until after the break.
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Lincoln threw 48% hooks to right handers and survived.. some. His line was fairly impressive (81 pitches, 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 HR) considering the position he was put in, but right-hand batters continue to have their way with him. His outs were 50/50 well-struck and benefited some from a very large ‘get away day’ strike zone, as did his opposing pitcher. But he kept his team in the game and that’s all that matters.
One thing I did notice happened in the first inning.. after he struckout Hart he glared into the Pirates dugout as if he was saying – wow, I did it. It was the first sign of life I’ve seen from Lincoln since his days in the lower system when he was rolling over everyone until he was hurt. I’ve been waiting to see that fire-in-his-eye look.
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What is there to say about how pathetic we are playing other than there is a lot more than youthful problems around this club right now. As I said earlier, there aren’t any signs suggesting Russell or Huntington will be given the boot but I certainly don’t know how either can be employed at this point.
The big operations move was to option Jaramillo down and I assume they will call up Kratz to catch since we have a front office of bean counters and Kratz’s sabermetric numbers suggest he’s in his breakout year. Little good that will do sitting on the pine. But since they want to push Doumit out the door, they have to give Kratz a chance with Kerrigan and his troops to see if they feel comfortable with him.
Along those lines, take a quick look at the last 29 game snapshot in our system (doesn’t include all the affiliates games on Sunday.. just the last 29 on record before I published this):
-58 runs, -27 wins.. even the minor league boys are starting to fall on their butts. Bradenton is doing well but as I’ve said all season, the FSL is unusually lacking in talent this year. Altoona is the one club that is rolling along consistently but even they are starting to bend lately considering they haven’t exactly been playing strong opposing teams over the last 30 days.
One thing that sticks out across our entire baseball operations landscape is how poor we are as a system on defense as almost every affiliate and the Pirates rank in the lower third of their league. That’s a sure sign of a drafting ideology to me.. or lack of emphasis on defense, if you will. Perhaps it also speaks volumes about the lack of emphasis on the subject in player development as well?
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Colton Cain was promoted to State College today. Bucs Prospects had laid out a plan to go take in several Bradenton/GCL games next week so that Cain could be seen since word around him was that he was settling in well, so this isn’t too much of a surprise to me. Locke was also promoted to Altoona and I’m not as confident he’ll do well like I am with Cain. We’ll see.
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Out of the blue, Mark Cuban has become interested in buying the Rangers. I think everyone wondered who was sitting on the sideline wanting to get a bid in because it was pretty obvious from the creditors they had wind of someone else’s potential involvement.
I mentioned last week I was stunned that Chuck Greenberg signed the waiver, and now this. I still believe Ryan/Greenberg have the inside track but you have to wonder how much more they will have to cough up to get the prize at this point. Is it really worth it? Hmm.. I’d rather overpay for underutilized Pirates myself.
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Talk about some pissed off fans.. evidently Neal Huntington mentioned to Dejan that he had control of Ryan Church for another year and there was a possibility we could see a Church/Milledge platoon through 2011.
That’s crazy but I covered yesterday why it might happen – Huntington is a bean counter whose evaluation skills have never been thought of as better than average by those I know around the game. He likes Church because the analytics suggest he should bounce back whereas the dope on Milledge is that he’s a cultural problem. Which poison do you want?
What Huntington said without saying, however, is that ownership must have already approved his short-term plan through at least 2011 and probably 2012, and that means we won’t be seeing any free agent bop bats patrolling in right field next year. That could change, but I doubt it will.
It also means there will be no commitment to improve the product.. what you see this year is what you will get next year save a cheap pickup here and there of some washed out vet looking for a ride, or what they obtain in any trades.
That’s what is sad about what wasn’t said.
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Have a great break! As Pirates fans, we all need some time away.
By Jake, on June 21, 2010, at 11:25 pm |
A few fun stats to look at this evening.
The Pirates Baserunning:
Pirates base states productivity:
With and without McCutchen leading off:
Pitching scouting reports grades in various areas:
Offense scouting reports in various areas:
By Jake, on June 13, 2010, at 11:24 pm |
“I’m going to risk upsetting a few people by letting you in on a few things I’m hearing. There are some people around the club (not affiliated with the Pirates) telling me that there are some problems in the clubhouse.” Jake on May 11th.
I heard that on May 8th, heard it again on the 9th, and held it back until the 11th. Since that period of time we have won just nine. We had chances to win additional games along the way but invariably player error caused a collapse. That means we’ve gone 9-24 last 33 for a .273 winning percentage and scored just 94 runs in that stretch which amounts to one-fifth of a season.
I called for John Russell to be fired on May 13th which is all I’m going to say on the subject. It’s deeper than Russell but that would be a damn good start.
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In the last 33 games only five losses were by one run.. the rest were by two or more.
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We’ve been very fortunate this year that opposing teams are resting players and/or throwing their weakest starters at us in the middle game of our series because we’ve been able to pull out 15 wins out of 28 played on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday games. When we play on opening or closing series days of Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, or Sunday, we’re just 8-27 (.229).
We could easily be a .280 team this year.
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The Bucs have never been a good hitting team on the road but this year we’ve faced 25 right-hand road starters and won just five for a .208 winning percentage. Last year we won 29% of those contests.
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The Pirates are the only team in baseball that has yet to score 100 runs at home. We’ve scored 95 in just 29 home games with a 3.3 run per game average which is the worst in the game. We’re currently allowing 6.1 runs per game on the road which is the highest in MLB but thankfully most of that happened early in the year.
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Pro scout Anup Sinha was at the FSL mid-season All-Star Game which very few Pirates actually showed up for, much less got in the game. Sinha not only evaluated the talent he saw for Bucs Prospects readers, but also put together a top ten prospect list from the game.
Tony Sanchez… shoulder…??.. oh my.
Good stuff.
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Speaking of prospects, those screaming for Pedro Alvarez better wake up because his MLE (Major League Equivalency - park adjusted) is a rough .746 OPS right now with a healthy 33% strike out rate. That’s hitting like Delwyn Young with a little more pop and, instead of all Young’s balls in play that go for outs, including a few productive outs, Alvarez projects to strike out more than Adam Dunn.
Someone explain to me how that’s going to help us win games right now?
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Neil Walker has not only taken Iwamura’s job at second from him, but he’s now starting to be recognized within the game as a potential Gold Glove candidate at the position. That surprised me considering Walker’s footwork. But there’s no question his athleticism has taken a few runs off the board and if his bat keeps thumping, who knows?
Imagine that – the last guy in the world Huntington seemingly wanted to shine might end up having a shot at such a prestigious award. If that doesn’t tell you all you need to know about the direction of this team under Huntington control, I don’t know what else could.
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Quick – Ryan Church or Lastings Milledge in right field against the White Sox?
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The Sox are throwing (sit down for this) Garcia, Danks, and Peavy at us. Lincoln, Duke, and Ohlendorf are going for the Bucs.
Garcia has been lights out and the Sox have been mauling right hand pitching, so there you go in game one. Duke at home is always a good bet and Ohlendorf figures to get lit up and Peavy isn’t exactly throwing the ball all that well.
These guys are coming in on a roll after all the PR about breaking the team up fired them up. These aren’t the White Sox you saw earlier in the year. That said, maybe we can crank up some Philly tricks to gain an advantage and win a couple of these games???
I think we’ll see a more motivated team playing in front of their home crowd, sparse as it may be. They are glad to be home.
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Church or Milledge? If you said Church, I think you might win the prize.
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In our fantasy baseball leagues, my Pit1 team took out the 7-2 west leading KoolaidSippin2010 this week which surprised the dickens out of me - I rolled up 248 points to his 181. Screaming demons is sticking right with me winning week after week too in the east.
My team that I didn’t make the draft in lost again, this week to the 3-6 The Burgh Bombers who mauled me thanks to him having Carlos Pena who went nuts last week.
And my 8-1 Pit3 team came back and won against PeterGammonsGrandson who had me beat early in the week. My thanks go out to Tony Glaus who had a heck of a day Sunday.
By Jake, on June 11, 2010, at 10:43 pm |
Pirates’ fans saw the true value of Ross Ohlendorf in the third inning of the Tigers game. With men at second and third and no outs, Ohlendorf struck out Santiago, Jackson, and Damon to end the threat.
Pirates’ fans also saw the true value of Ross Ohlendorf as a starter in the fourth inning of the Tigers game. With the Pirates leading 1-0, the Tigers made an in-game adjustment to Ohlendorf the second time through the lineup and became aggressive early in the count. While Ohlendorf was able to record two quick outs, he wasn’t as lucky with the third batter as Boesch cranked a 92 MPH first-pitch fastball, thrown knee-high, over the right field wall to tie the game.
Then Guillen came up and Ohlendorf was wild with his first two pitches showing his frustration. The third pitch was hammered into right field for a double. Joe Kerrigan came out to settle Ohlendorf down but it didn’t help much. Inge then ground a hung slider sharply just inside the third base bag for another double scoring Guillen, Avila hit a soft liner back through the middle scoring Inge, and Santiago hammered a grounder to Iwamura that was gloved for the third out.
I’ve said since Ohlendorf was acquired that I felt he was a 7th inning guy who could give you an inning or two of shut out baseball consistently and Pirates fans got a glimpse of that potential Friday night. Now with that said, I also told you Ohlendorf had been throwing meatballs up to the plate his last few outings but that he had been getting away with it. He threw meatballs Friday night and good hitters took him apart. He has no business in the middle of the plate with his pitches.. he just doesn’t have plus stuff. But that’s where he has been throwing.
Ohlendorf’s velocity has been down all year, his command of his offspeed pitches has been poor most of the time, and his tempo has become a distraction. My guess is that he’s battling a shoulder problem, although he could still be having back problems. He doesn’t look healthy, his arm isn’t throwing like it’s healthy, and he really has no business being in the rotation. But being on the Pirates, he’s getting away with it and actually done well in many of his starts but not because he’s throwing the ball well, that’s for sure.
Take a look at what happened to Ohlendorf Friday night by left hand batters (charts courtesy of Inside Edge Scouting Service):
They saw him pitching inside aggressively the first time through the order and then looked inner-third the next time through and crushed him. Look how much plate he was catching. My-oh-my – and that’s routine for Ohlendorf. When you hang change ups thigh high on the outer third for left hand batters to extend on (red dots on right side of chart), your likely to hit the showers early.
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Doumit had two ground balls his way that I saw and both went past him into the outfield. The one that hurt the most was Avila’s sharp ground ball his way in the 6th which Doumit was so late recognizing off the bat that, not only did he get just one step toward the ball, but he was never able to turn his glove toward the ball. Take a look at this disaster:
There was two outs at the time so if Doumit had even below-average recognition on the play, he would at least had his glove on the ball. This was an easy out (our at least knocked down) by 95% of the first basemen in the game, it was that simple despite being hit sharply. But Doumit seemed to never see it, his glove never turned, his eyes never followed the ball, and his footwork so awkward you almost have to question Huntington having him play there. That was a costly no-play because one run scored on the play and then the next batter went yard. Instead of the inning being over, a 3-1 game turned into a 6-1 game that fast.
I understand he hasn’t played much at first since 2007 but we talked about this all winter – Huntington made a poor decision to open the year with Doumit behind the plate and he cost us games as a result. Now that Doumit has become injury prone again, they moved him out to let teams see he can’t play first because the Pirates never took any time to develop him there and, thus, his value is going to tank even more come July.
Here’s the first one that shot under Doumit’s glove:
The Pirates front office has made so many poor short-term roster decisions over the three years it isn’t even funny and it’s cost us a ton of winnable games. Wins are money to Bob Nutting and how Nutting can continue to accept these poor decisions just amazes me as a fan. I respect that Nutting is a bit clueless in baseball operations but he isn’t stupid – he understands future value being flushed down the toilet. Why he is allowing it… ???
The solution was simple – Doumit should have been dealt last winter. Now it’s too late.
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Anup Sinha breaks down the Pirates draft and tries to answer if the Pirates strategy of selecting so many high school pitchers will work over at Bucs Prospects. Sinha will be at the FSL All-Star Game Saturday and have a report by Sunday.
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Did I tell you Iwamura (Huntington’s guy) would win over at second with Walker (Littlefield’s guy) being the loser? How can Huntington possibly justify moving Walker out? He needs to release Aki.. end of story. Walker has proven he’s not a fluke, he’s not utility, and he doesn’t deserve to be run around the diamond like some gopher boy. Settle him in and let’s see what he can do over 300 AB.
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I want to go back to Lincoln’s start and talk about my reasoning for feeling Lincoln was brought up too early since so many of you have asked. In the lower system Lincoln was able to use his fastball command to get outs and the more he faced better hitters, the more it was evident he wasn’t going to survive as a two-pitch pitcher. His velocity on his fastball had come back since surgery, but the harder he threw the more he missed his locations in the minors. That was even more evident in Indy this year.
For you semi-sabermetric types, in over 300 innings of minor league work Lincoln’s MLE FIP was well over 5 (expected ERA adjusting for park , luck, and removing the defense at the ML level) and his MLE FIP against left hand batters this year alone was near 6 with 35 hits in 31 innings and more than half of those hits for extra bases. Now when you adjust his numbers to the league talent this year he actually faced, and compare it to the rosters he will face, his MLE FIP jumps to near 7 and his MLE FIP against left hand batters jumps to almost 9!
That’s insane.
While he’s going to have trouble with left hand batters, there’s no question about Lincoln’s ability to get a few outs against right hand batters. But at this level it’s not going to come as easy for him as it did in Indy because the talent level is significantly deeper. To give you an idea, in his game Wednesday, he didn’t throw one slider out of the 35 pitches he did throw to right hand batters. The reason for that is simple – is a below-average offering that he needs to work on.
I mentioned in my post about what to expect from Lincoln that he was probably going to get hammered because he’s trying to compete with only two pitches. Sure enough, Nats batters simply sat back and waited for his fastball and then wailed the offering because he doesn’t have the velocity he once had. In the 18 batters that did put wood on his fastball, 8 of them were well-struck resulting in a .444 batting average which is nearly twice the league average. That’s worse than Charlie Morton was getting hammered. It’s too easy to sit back and wait for Lincoln’s fastball — he needs more work on his secondary pitches and that’s why I felt he was being rushed up. John Russell suggested Lincoln was just tight being it was his debut, and I’m sure that added to his problems, but that’s not his main problem.
Anyway, here are three post-game charts for you to look at from Lincoln’s first start courtesy of Inside Edge Scouting Service (click on the image to see the chart full size):
By Jake, on May 23, 2010, at 11:21 pm |
After a week of giving away games with his glove, hitting little swinging bunts, and swinging at air, Doumit finally remembered how to square the ball up one day after John Russell was ejected and won a game with his bat. The game was tied in the 10th when he hit a shot to right. In the 6th he had hit a clutch two-out line drive to right to score Jones and wailed that ball too.. what was more amazing was that the pitch was well off the plate but he was able to get the bat on the ball and still hook it into right. An amazing feat considering Doumit’s weak swings lately, to say the least.
Maybe batting 7th for the first time in years had something to do with it?
Also in the 6th, McCutchen lined a shot into right center that Melky Cabrera took a horrible route to and the ball scooted past him to the wall. Once Cutch saw the ball hit the turf as he headed to first, he hit his afterburners thinking three all the way and made it, although the relay throw was close to beating him. That was the fastest I’ve ever seen Cutch run.
Duke pitched a good game.. he kept hitters off balanced, came in on them regularly, and was the beneficiary of a large strike zone by Tim Timmons – as was the Braves starter – which was a bit odd on a get away day for the umps. He gave up seven hits in the box but his defense was shoddy on a couple of those hits that should have been outs. One error was called – a high throw by Cedeno to Pearce which eventually came around to score.
But the bottom line remains that we have a putrid offense sputtering to press the clutch pedal down. We’ll get a few guys on here and there but inevitably strand them. That’s been the storyline for the last week or so. When we win, we typically win in groups of two or three and then quite a few games pass and we take a couple more. In our last ten games we’re 5-5 and half of those were on the road. Pretty impressive for a young club. But the sad part is, we could have been 7-3 had John Russell managed by the book.
Take a look at our offensive productivity by position so far this year (not including Sunday’s game):
That’s truly sad. Think about that a minute.. including the pitcher, five of nine guys we send to the box nearly every game have a one-in-five shot at getting a hit. If you are a starting pitcher in this league and can’t dominate this lineup, you don’t deserve to be in the majors. It’s that simple.
One of the funniest statistics I’ve heard thrown around the last week is that the Pirates are .500 or better when Morton doesn’t start. I haven’t looked to see if the claim is even true because it’s a totally useless correlation for this very reason:
When your team’s pythagorean win/loss record is 12-32 because your pitching has allowed 257 runs scored in just 44 games, while your team might be 19-25 on the books right now, you can bet your bank account that more losses than wins are headed your way over the remaining 118 games if you don’t find better pitching somewhere.
And don’t think for one minute it’s been better lately.. it hasn’t. Over the last 21 games we’ve been out scored by 30 runs and while we’re currently enjoying a 9-12 record in those games, mathematics tells us we’re going to win just one-third of our games down the road.. maybe less. We’ve been very, very lucky.
One area that has disseminated us has been defense. Look at the Pirates defensive runs saved by position:
That’s uglier than our offense. The only position with positive runs saved is shortstop. Now look at the top and you’ll see one reason why the Reds are winning ballgames.. they have positive numbers up the middle; look at the bottom and you’ll get an idea why the Cubs and Brewers are reeling. And if you think Ryan Doumit is only -2 defensive runs saved on the year, I have a bridge to sell you.
I love the fact we’re at where we’re at, but I have to look at reality too and reality says we’re really a crappy team and holding on by duct tape. There is no front office magic to the wins.. it doesn’t have anything to do with starting pitching.. we’ve simply run up against ice-cold teams or teams that turn ice-cold when they hit town while taking a breather. Trust me on this one – we have nothing in the dugout that can turn any team cold. Nothing.
Let’s look again at the numbers a month from now and see where we are then.
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We’re off to play the Reds and I don’t really know what to expect. My gut says long games, high scores, and a lot of Jeff Karstens, but something is itching in my belly. Harang isn’t exactly throwing the ball well against good hitting teams (which doesn’t include us) and he isn’t exactly fond of throwing in his home park. On the flip side, the Reds aren’t crushing southpaws either but don’t let that fool you – their downside against southpaws is stronger than our per game average. They have been that strong with the bats.
We need to beat Harang because it’s all downhill for us from there. Leake, Arroyo, and Cueto have all figured things out their last few times out so all we can hope for is a let down because they are facing ‘the Pirates’ — will we see it? I’m not sure we will.. I have them taking three of four with our win coming Tuesday night.
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Let’s see how the studs of our organization are doing lately:
Pedro Alvarez last ten games: 7 for 32 which is a .219 BA. Alvarez against southpaws: heading for the Mendoza line at .209.
Neil Walker last 9 games: 8 for 31 which is a .256 BA. Walker against southpaws: below the Mendoza line at .156 and sinking.
Tabata last 5 games: 4 for 16 which is a .250 BA. Tabata against southpaws: .237 and sinking fast too.
Gorkys Hernandez last 10 games: 6 for 35 which is a .171 BA. Hernandez against southpaws this year: a startling .430 OPS.
Robbie Grossman last ten games: 2 for 35 for an incredible .057 BA.
Tony Sanchez last 10 games: 8 for 35 for a .229 BA. Sanchez against southpaws: .216 and tanking like crazy. All this in A-ball, mind you. Think about that a second when you consider your first round draft choice for 2010.
Then there are some non-prospects making some noise and carrying the minor league system lately like Alex Presley and his .400 BA last ten, Eric Fryer at .324 BA last ten, and Jeremy Farrell with his .341 BA last ten. And then there is the (now) borderline prospect Shelby Ford who has gone .323 his last ten in what amounts to a platoon role.
Seems to me our hitting coordinator has taken the last couple of weeks off while the entire upper tier tanked. Pitching seems to be doing ok in the levels lately but not because they are studs by any means. BTW, has anyone even seen Benny (Jim Benedict – pitching coordinator) around lately?
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You can listen to the Neal Huntington Show by clicking this link (Windows media). Nothing earth shattering was said.. in fact, the first three-quarters was very boring dribble which I’ll go into a little below. Toward the end I got the feeling he was sending a message to Lastings Milledge that his job isn’t threatened by Jose Tabata when he said Tabata needed to put consistent months together instead of weeks, much like he talked about with Neil Walker. He also mentioned what I told you a few days ago that Lincoln’s change is still work-in-progress and he’s not likely to succeed at the major league level as a two-pitch pitcher without it being at least an average offering.
Of everything he said, what I did like hearing was that he seems to be starting to take some responsibility for a poor evaluation of Iwamura last September. The recent hammy problem is one thing, the continued knee problem affecting his range and pivots and hitting is something entirely. I don’t get the feeling he’s going to give up on Aki anytime soon because he kept using his low batting average on balls in play as an example of why he should turn around, but that’s just nuts when the guy is in such poor health. It was a poor acquisition and the money could have been spent more wisely.
In the first part of the show he talked a bit excessively about development but I’m here to tell you he has significant development issues in his system. From field staff that seem they couldn’t care less, to players attitudes going south on him, to his entire development core failing to teach consistent fundamentals of the game. Those are my opinions from what I’ve seen, heard, and watched.
Huntington raged on and on about development staff coming aboard and taking roles below the major league level as if he was trying to talk someone into something they didn’t want to do. I go back to the fact he had a chance to hire quality old-school baseball instructors in the lower levels of his system but he decided to go another direction and I think it’s hurt him overall.
But what do I know.
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It was announced today that Chris Sale will be throwing Wednesday in Nashville so Bucs Prospects have a pro scout who worked with the Dodgers there to give us one last evaluation.
Anup Sinha’s latest article: What Will the Bucs’ Strategy be for the 2010 Draft? is also up. The second round of coverage across our affiliates begins in a week and runs for most the month of June, and draft coverage is picking up as well, so you might want to keep checking in over there.
Lastly, I started Bucs Prospects with the simple goal of providing the fans with quality professional opinions on the talent and performance in our minor league system. The site just turned two months old a couple of days ago and I can’t tell you how well the concept has been received in the game, although some within the Pirates haven’t exactly been happy campers.
That said, we’ve already had one deep look at each of the affiliates below 3A this year and we’ll be doing our second deep look in June while also taking a peek at the short-season team during the month. Later in June or early July, the plan is to spend a little time in Bradenton looking over the GCL club and new draft picks that happen to be in camp as well. We haven’t spent much time in 3A because the future of the Pirates, to be quite blunt, doesn’t depend on Alvarez, Lincoln, and Tabata.. it depends on the growth and development of their supporting staff. So, 2010 is all about getting baseline readings on the players below 3A for that purpose.
There are numerous changes in the wings for Bucs Prospects. For one, currently under development is a unified player database which will allow you to immediately drill down to the scouting reports of any player scouted in our system. While the articles you read at Bucs Prospects contain some information on the players, the database contains all the scouting reports filed internally you haven’t seen which hold evaluations on tools, projectability, and many other factors.. not only on our players, but players from other teams scouted too.
Another major change currently in the works is that I will be stepping down as the driving force behind the site and handing the concept to an editorial staff and an executive general manager (a rabid Pirates fan, by the way). You will find numerous new scouts being added to the site over the next couple of months – all of them have either played or scouted professionally, another editor to assist Anup Sinha, and the executive general manager who will help guide the editorial staff to the next level. More on those announcements over the next couple of weeks.
It had been my practice to post advance knowledge of our next stop in coverage but I’m no longer going to be alerting anyone. In fact, in a couple of weeks I may not even know myself until an article hits the site.
So stay tuned!
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Whoa.. I got smoked in one of my fantasy leagues last week (now 4-3.. the one I wasn’t around to draft in.. live and learn) and won in the other two. I’m now 7-0 in B&G3 which is simply amazing considering how stacked some of the other teams are, and in the other league I’m 5-2.
By Jake, on April 25, 2010, at 8:16 pm |
Let’s start this off talking about Morton. A few days ago I mentioned that he had no business making another start as a Pirate and I meant it. Then the other day after hearing that Joe Kerrigan took away his two-seamer in order to try to force him to command his four-seamer better, I agreed with the idea in principle since Morton has a big arm. But Ian Snell had a big arm too with a wipeout slider and he didn’t get very far either.
It’s all in the mindset.
Morton was facing one of the weakest fastball hitting lineups in the NL Sunday and did challenge batters at times, so that was a baby step forward. Unfortunately since he continued to throw up in the zone as well as live off the paint on the sides of the plate, there’s not much positive to find from this outing. His curve remains a plus pitch when he gets on top of it but even that’s become inconsistent, his slider has been average at best with a tighter one here and there but rarely does he have command of the pitch, and his change is non-existent.
That leaves his fastball and the only thing I saw him do differently Sunday than in his recent outings was to take a little off which gave him a little more boring action in on right hand batters. But the movement was so early batters were picking it up too well, albeit he did get a few jam shots and broken bats using it on dead pull hitters.
I don’t know.. I think management will say he took a step forward and will let him make his next start in Los Angeles but I think he gets mauled by Ethier and the Dodgers and that could set him back. What’s worse – a trip to 3A to work on mental and pitching issues, or continued domination by major league hitters?
When I raced greyhounds we used to ‘school’ a ‘stale’ dog by removing him from competition and placing him in a couple of races against inferior competition for him to get on track, and it generally always worked. I wonder what a year in 3A would do for Morton? Maybe he just can’t/won’t relate to Kerrigan? Maybe Doumit will be gone by then? I mean, the dynamics of this club could be significantly different by the time he hits camp in 2011.
Considering we’re really short on pitching, I suppose we won’t see Morton sent to 3A. I know we’re working hard to add an innings eater right now so if we get someone signed or brought in from a trade, maybe then we can afford to send him down.
Back to the game a minute – after Berkman led off the second with a home run, Morton got Pence to ground out and Feliz hit a line drive single to right. With Towels at the plate, Morton threw outside paint at the letters for strike one, came back with inside paint at the letters for strike two, he threw a fastball down the middle of the dish letter high that was fouled off, tossed a ball, and another ball and on that pitch Feliz took off for second. Doumit’s throw (2.16 pop) was a one-hopper that skipped into Iwamura’s mitt well before Feliz reached second but Iwamura never applied the tag until Feliz was safely on the bag. Then on a 3-2 count Morton challenged Towles and he softly lined one into left that would have been a single against any team in the game except the Pirates with their shift. Instead it was a double and Feliz scored. Morton then struck out Manzella and Myers to end the inning.
The third was a bit rougher. Bourn walked on five pitches, Kepplinger popped up to short (Bourn stole second with Doumit airmailing his throw into center but Kepplinger had tipped the ball and had to return to first), then Lee ground one softly that was just out of Crosby’s range (Cedeno gets to it easy) with Bourn off on the pitch and now runners were at first and third with one out.
Berkman came up and on a 2-2 pitch, Lee stole second after Morton failed to make him stop taking a lead, the pitch to Berkman was a ball and he eventually walked to load the bases. Up came Pence and he hit a grounder to short (maybe 15′ from the bag?) that Crosby sat back on then pitched slow to Iwamura to start a double play and by the time Aki’s relay hit Clement’s mitt, Pence was safe at first and a run had scored. I saw Dejan’s account at his blog that suggested it was Aki’s fault that double play wasn’t turned but I saw something entirely different – Crosby simply dragged ass on the play both fielding the ball and making his slow toss to Aki and that killed any chance of catching the swift Pence. Aki’s throw was solid with plenty of arm strength.
Feliz then came up with runners at first and third and two outs now and, after Pence stole second without a throw during the at bat, Morton’s 3-1 hook was lined into center for a single which scored two runs. Morton then hit Towles who had hurt him in the second (intentional?) and Manzella flied out to end the inning.
So I suppose management will suggest Morton did a lot better than his line suggests but that’s a misnomer. Crosby hurt him a couple of times defensively – no doubt about it. But truth be told, Morton didn’t look sharp at all and the score could have been 12-1 just as easily as 5-1 with his work.
One thing I want to bring up is that I keep reading questions about Morton’s pitch selection across media and blogs and I don’t agree that his selection is poor. Or ever has been poor – at least not consistently. He’s trying to live on two pitches – one that runs pretty straight to boot – and he’s attempting to keep batters off balanced the best he can by mixing up those pitches and locations. I don’t have any problem with any of that as a fan – what bothers me is that he’s throwing too many pitches up in the zone and living in the middle of the plate when he needs a strike. Throw in his lack of off speed command and he’s simply too hittable by sitting on his fastball. If he would finish off his pitches on a plane better, if he would get more command of his slider, and if he would think a little more on the mound, maybe things would change for him. But right now he looks lazy and indifferent.. maybe pressing too much, I don’t know.
On offense we started with an Iwamura single in the first and then he was doubled off when McCutchen lined sharply to Bourn in short center. By my eye Aki was safe but he was called out all the same.
In the second Jones ground one back through the box for a single, Doumit lined one into short right for another single with Jones stopping at second, Clement struck out on a nasty hook, and then LaRoche plated Jones with a line drive to center off a hanging Meyers slider. Doumit stopped at second on the play. Morton then struck out missing three bunt attempts (he looks soft in the box like he does on the mound) and then Crosby lined a shot into left for a single but Lee was quick to the ball and Doumit was held at third. Aki then came up and swung at the first pitch (sound familiar? it’s becoming a broken record) grounding meekly to Meyers to end the threat.
The third was a bit more exciting. Cutch led off with a fastball he took the opposite way (yeah!) that found a hole on the right side and, on the first pitch to Milledge, he swiped second. Unfortunately, he was called out despite being on the bag a full second or more before Kepplinger made a swipe tag on him. A reader e-mailed me and said it looked like McCutchen was tagged on his dreadlocks (can you imagine that) while sliding into the bag so I went back and looked at the video in slo-mo and, sure enough based on the one replay I have, he very well might have been. Hat tip to Charles in PA, but I seriously doubt the ump even saw that. I think he was going to ring up McCutchen no matter what. Anyway, Milledge struck out and Jones hit a little grounder to first and that ended that.
Doumit walked in the fourth, Clement struck out, LaRoche ground through the left side with Doumit stopping at second, and then Young hit a bullet back to the mound that bounced once and landed in Meyers glove who had jumped in the air to avoid being hit, if you can believe all that. Meyers then threw to third and the throw bounced once and went perfectly into Feliz’s mitt while he jumped up as Doumit was sliding into him and tagged him out. At that point it was pretty obvious to me that any baseball gods that existed were obviously watching over the other team’s players. Then Crosby capped off his great day off by striking out looking with two on and when I heard Bass’ name being called as the new pitcher, I tuned out and started working on this post (he threw only 5 of his first 15 pitches as strikes).
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Pitching last 6 starts: 7.62 ERA (29th worst) allowing 71 hits including 11 home runs (!) in 52 innings of work and giving up a stunning .387 on base average and .984 OPS. Wow.
Offense last 6 games: batting average below the Mendoza line at .179 (by far the worst in MLB) with an incredible .520 OPS. In 190 at bats we’ve managed just ten extra base hits along the way.
Defense last 6 games: as you might expect with the high ERA, we’re only converting 66% of all balls in play to outs which is the second worst in the game and our .974 fielding percentage is 24th worst.
Is there anybody else who believes it’s time to shake things up a bit? Do the fans not warrant a small chance to input toward org decisions when things are going this poor? If so, then let’s see McCutchen back at the top of the lineup against the Brewers and Aki back down the order (3rd? 5th?). Let’s also see Millege playing about five steps toward the line in left from his shift position with Duke on the mound.
That’s not much to ask, is it?
But hang in there – it seems like the world is caving in but things aren’t as bad as they appear.
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Remember when I told you that the Brewers would ‘get theirs’ in the end after they rung up the score against us the other day? They were just swept by the Cubs. At home. By a 25-4 margin.
What goes around, comes around.
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Speaking of the Brewers series, I should take bets on the under/over on number of hit batsmen over all three games. 3? 5? 0?
We’re starting to hit the ball better which is a good sign and I think we’re close to busting out again. Gallardo is a tough pitcher, especially at home in a packed park, and Duke isn’t exactly the best guy to bet on in an away game. But since our pen has been abused over the last week, I think it’s safe to say that Duke *might* keep the game close since the Brewers are showing some rust, but after he exits it’s going to be a free-for-all.
I don’t think this is going to be a pretty series but I like our chances Wednesday.
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And don’t even ask about my fantasy teams – I was rocked this week as bad as the Bucs were. But hey, I’ll be back next week!
By Jake, on April 24, 2010, at 11:07 pm |
It’s been a very emotional week for the Pirates and it got worse Saturday night when Lance Berkman crushed a line drive off Chris Jakubauskas’ skull. Thankfully he had time to turn away. You didn’t have to be in the park to feel the awe in the air. You didn’t have to be on the field to hear the player’s concern for their fallen brother. And you didn’t even have to see the hit to understand its impact.
It wasn’t a pretty sight.
But someone higher up was watching over Jakubauskas and a few minutes later he was on his feet with Lance Berkman at his side while being lead to an awaiting medical cart to be taken to the hospital for observation.
Some of you e-mailed asking how to send Jakubauskas a card or letter. It’s a great idea.. maybe get the kids to color something special like a Sponge Bob line drawing for him with “Get Well’ to hang on the wall. Anything. Here’s the address:
Chris Jakubauskas
c/o Pittsburgh Pirates
115 Federal Street
Pittsburgh, PA 15212
While the game did resume, somehow winning or losing didn’t seem to matter anymore. In the end we added another “L” to the paper stats but the real loss was in the way Jakubauskas fell out.
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Anup Sinha was over watching Brian Leach’s start for the Marauders and should have his scouting report of the game up for you to read on Sunday at Bucs Prospects. It will also be interesting to see what he has to say about Sanchez, Holt, and Krol.
Monday we’re picking up with the Altoona Curve beginning with Tim Alderson’s start.
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We’re absolutely being destroyed down the left field line as I suspected would start happening. Now Milledge is even getting gun-shy allowing catchable balls to fall in as if possibly making a statement. When I saw a fairly routine fly ball hit into the left center field gap and both Milledge and McCutchen camped waiting for it to come down, it became obvious to me we are giving up too much ground in left.
I’d guess the shift leader is the Pirates statistical wizard Dan Fox since he’s a very smart cookie on defensive metrics, but I’d argue he didn’t give Milledge and McCutchen enough time playing straightaway for proper measurement. Milledge was too raw when he hit the club last year for his work to be relied on. Throw in Doumit receiving and the lack of command and control arms coming out of the bullpen and I’d say the decision to do this shift was a bit premature. My quick analysis as a fan suggests it has some merit, but not without a lot more stability, and certainly not in every park, or against every team, or with every pitcher.
We need to go back to standing where they don’t hit them so we can run to where they do hit them. We can’t give away half the field like we are.
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Did we really bat Bobby Crosby #2?????
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And what’s up with moving McCutchen down the order to try to jump-start Jones? Why does it seem we want Andrew McCutchen to fail so bad in 2010? The new regime wasn’t around when Cutch was asked to start swinging long in the minors and he openly stated he was against it and tanked like the dickens. Then he developed some right hand laziness trying to swing for the fence every at bat. It wasn’t until his pop came up and saw him and told him to go back being the player he was that turned him around and he’s been swinging a strong bat ever since.
Until this year when he was removed from the role he was comfortable with.
Why don’t we just put him back in the one hole and let him play his natural game? He’s only 23.. why do we want him to be 26? Give the kid a break. And puh-lease, drop Iwamura down to #3 where he belongs with this roster. Maybe Cutch, Milledge, Aki, Jones, Doumit, LaRoche..
Now that I said, that, expect Aki to have a big day Sunday. LOL
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You have to like Jason Jaramillo’s approach at the plate this year – he’s been stinging the ball. I almost want to wonder aloud if he might possibly be in a breakout year the way he’s seeing the ball?
A little birdie told me this evening that Doumit might have been given a wake up call Friday. Evidently there has been some talk about a Doumit trade floating around — whether the rumor is true or not I haven’t been able to confirm — but one source said that Doumit was told (by agent? Pirates? friends?) that he needs to pick his game up a couple of levels if he wants to move on.
Now sit back and watch and see if he doesn’t come out screaming.
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It was nice to see Daniel McCutchen come out and pitch in a 7th inning role. That’s where he needs to remain. Kudos to him for getting right back in the game battling back.
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Charlie Morton takes to the mound Sunday and I honestly don’t know what to expect from him except a ton of straight fastballs somewhere near the plate. Now that the reasoning for Morton throwing so many four-seamers has come to light, I applaud Kerrigan and the Bucs for forcing Morton to live or die on the pitch. He has to get his fastball command back in order to be able to take the next step even if he gets rocked by 30 runs in the process. He can’t be trying to live on the paint.. he can’t be scared to go inside on guys leaning over, and he can’t be scared to throw his fastball in fastball counts. Until those things change, they shouldn’t let him throw his two-seamer again.
Now the question becomes, will the Pirates back away from their plan because of the recent media release about Morton’s two-seamer fate? I hope they don’t.
On paper it looks like his four-seamer matches up better against the Astros and I’d guess that will play into his head some. But he’s likely to get hit hard all the same. That’s ok with me as a fan since this is a development year and at least we’re trying to salvage a big arm. Don’t be surprised if Minute Maid’s roof is closed Sunday.
Oh, and he’s got a favorable ump working the plate this time around. Unfortunately, Bret Myers owns the Pirates.
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Quick – not including Jakubauskas, how many Pirate pitchers have an ERA over 5? How many over 9?
7 over 5
5 over 9
Almost makes you want to see them stretch out Meek and his 0.82 ERA, huh? And, btw, is that a wrinkle I see developing on Meek’s 97 mph four-seamer? If I didn’t know better I’d say it’s moving like a cutter. Wow.
Quick – which team has the worst ERA last seven games?
Bucs? Nope.. Reds.
But guess what? In the last 50+ innings we have given up more home runs than the Cardinals, Brewers, Indians, and Cubs.
Combined!
Wow.
By Jake, on February 12, 2010, at 7:11 pm |
Another headline from the Pirates PR channel at pirateball.com:
“Bucs’ bullpen much improved from ’09″
Much Improved? In which way? Let’s see:
“So, is this bullpen built to be less of a liability in 2010? Statistics, even though they can be misleading when it comes to projecting reliever performance, would suggest that yes, the ‘pen will be better.
Replacing Capps at the back end will be Dotel, who hasn’t closed for a full season since 2004..
The 38-year-old Brendan Donnelly.. brings eight seasons of experience with him.. though the fact that he is less than three years removed from Tommy John surgery remains a slight concern..
Lopez represents the left-handed option that the Pirates lacked and is looking to emulate the success that he had with the Red Sox from 2006-08..”
Better statistically even though the author sees huge red flags. Ok, now we have something to go on. Let’s see if the ‘better statistically’ premise is even close to accurate.
Let’s take all the relief pitchers from the NLCD in 2009 who appeared in at least 30 games and throw them together. Then let’s add the three new additions and rank them by OPS allowed just for fun:
Donnelly and Carrasco look to be a nice addition based on that one stat (if you don’t also peek at Carrasco’s leverage index of .62) while Dotel and Lopez finish well out of the money.
How about if we rank by percentage of inherited runners who scored? Once again, Donnelly ranked well as only 3 of 15 scored for a 20% ranking while Lopez wasn’t trusted enough to be put in a position to find out what he could do. Dotel choked with 52% scoring which, granted, was a tick better than Capps, but significantly higher than league average as well as Chavez we lost. Carasco choked there too.
Where our new additions look really good is in the one stat our GM tells us is worthless with relievers – ERA. When I look closer at Dotel and Donnelly’s ERA using xERA as a comparative tool, Dotel’s ERA looks legitimate despite a ridiculous number of walks, but Donnelly’s was somewhat lucky (mainly from lots of walks) although still very good.
Considering Donnelly barely made our cutoff since he only appeared in 30 games, I’m not so sure we’re looking at a true representative sample for him. Also, the NLED isn’t exactly known for having the best advance scouting departments. That being said, this is a young club which is more likely to need his services at home so I suspect we’ll see him rack up considerably more innings at the friendly confines of PNC Park where he should shine — as long as he stays healthy.
As for Dotel and Lopez? Dotel pitched in some pretty big parks except at home but his position is now somewhat reversed where his home park is larger and his road parks are going to give him fits. I think that’s problematic for Dotel because he’s going to have to rely heavily on Kerrigan for batters to walk to get to batters he can handle (his MO) because he doesn’t know NL batters. Throw in small away parks and I think we’re looking at a road implosion candidate who very well might put up nasty numbers at home.
And are we supposed to think D.J Carrasco hasn’t forgotten that he was forced to throw +26 innings in 1999 from 1998 and then never given a chance in Pittsburgh which resulted in a somewhat dysfunctional career including pitching in Japan? And what about the fact that Neal Huntington was director of player development with the Indians in 1998 when Carrasco was handed his release papers? Am I the only one who thinks there is a huge cultural red flag there?
Anyway, was the premise accurate? A couple of statistics are better, most statistics are worse, and some statistics are questionable and/or unreliable. I happen to be a big believer in the percentage of inherited runners which score stat when combined with opportunity leverage and in that regard we’re worse off as a whole with the new additions I used above.
There might be some merit to the argument that Dotel and Carrasco pitched in the AL, in a short-perch park no less, which on the surface seems like they should have a tick better advantage. But I don’t buy into that argument because the batting average and OPS difference between the NLCD and ALCD is statistically insignificant plus they are now having to pitch more often in less pitching friendly parks. Add in the age of all these additions, but add some love because of their experience level, then subtract for their health risks and I think we’re looking at a weaker pen, not an improved pen.
“I think the bullpen this year is really going to surprise a lot of people,” Meek said. “I don’t think [manager John Russell] is going to hesitate to use us.”
Aside from Meek issuing the standard 2010 corporate-love player PR statement, let’s hope he’s wrong and that our starters are able to go deeper into the game than ever because I’m not personally comfortable that we have any better tools in the pen to hold leads than last year.
Not that we’ll have many, that is.
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