By Jake, on July 2, 2010, at 11:04 pm |
When your team ERA is under 1 over a four game stretch, you are going to win some games and that’s what the Pirates have done – win games.
Despite poor fielding and ridiculous risky chances taken, many of which happened to have worked the last few days.
Despite poor fundamentals on the base paths.
Despite hitting 0.018 points above the Mendoza line during the run.
Despite averaging 2.05 runs per game.
And most importantly, despite the pitching staff throwing cases of watermelons over the plate during the period.
Thank the statistical mean for our last few wins. As they say, everything cycles.
Oh, I suppose you can also throw in some cold batters in Chicago, a stiff wind blowing in at Wrigley, a Phillies team that seems jinxed at PNC, and two days of Phillies batters chasing an obscene number of offspeed pitches out of the zone they have rarely done this year.
Honestly, we are a pathetic looking group of baseball players on the diamond. Our third baseman has very little lateral range and now can’t even throw the ball consistently, our shortstops have a bit more range and have a bit more glove, but aren’t even league average defenders over the last month of play, our second basemen are targets on pivot plays waiting to be punched out cold and their footwork reminds me of Craig Wilson’s two left-feet approach, and who knows what has happened to Jones lately.. can’t keep his eye on the ball, he refuses to extend to grab poor throws, and he hasn’t picked many out of the dirt in quite a while. Throw in Milledge leaving his feet every other play while throwing every ball over relay men, McCutchen flat-out dropping balls, and throwing to wrong bases, Doumit with pop times exceeding 2.2…
Even if all these problems get 50% better, over a 162 game schedule we’re going to lose 10 – 20 games just from poor defense.
We can’t afford that margin of error with the roster we have. And least us not forget that we had one of the league’s top defenses behind average to better than league average pitching while also cranking out 725 runs scored before we starting blowing up the roster, and we still lost 90+ games.
So why does our short-term plan include fringe to average defenders, a doubles oriented offense, and below average starting pitching? And, how many people out there believe that is the combination that will eventually lead to more wins than losses down the road?
I certainly don’t.
Even if we assume we regain some of the arms that are being surgically repaired, or guys like Morris perform as advertised, and the entire group performs at least at league average rates, they are still all pitch-to-contact guys who will rely on their defense to make plays behind them. I hope you aren’t in the camp that believes Andy LaRoche can be turning 125 double plays per year in 2012. Are you?
Houston, we have a significantly larger problem than anybody is even considering. And don’t look to the minor leagues for any short-term help because there isn’t any there worth talking about.
What we truly have is a mixed bag of nuts and some of those are already cracked and exposed. Without adding some professionals to this roster who can hit, catch, and throw the ball, this rebuild will end up just like all the others – one big screwed up mess.
Now, who out there believes Bob Nutting will cough up $30MM in additional player salary in an attempt to at least field a somewhat more competitive team? Hmm.. I don’t see one single hand — and I shouldn’t because not one fan believes in the man. Yet some of you believe in his management team as if they are separate from Nutting.
I don’t get it.
Our short-term plan is totally screwed up and has been ever since we started dealing. Neal Huntington took his office and clearly stated his intention – his risk taking would come in the accumulation of lower level talent he amassed during his rebuilding trades. That is exactly what he should have done..
But he didn’t.
Instead, he brought in major league ready talent to fill a roster so Bob Nutting didn’t have to spend money on the free agent market during the rebuild. Instead of taking back a Lastings Milledge, we should have taken back two or three “A” prospects in A-ball.. instead of Andy LaRoche we should have demanded two more “A” prospects in the lower levels, instead of taking on Ohlendorf et al from the Yankees, we should have demanded Grade A lower level talent.
And taken our risks in developing that talent.. not LaRoche, not Ohlendorf, not Milledge, and not Tabata.. no matter what their contributions are or ever will be. Simply put, the sum of the performance the 0-3 MLB talent we received back can never exceed the sum of the equivalent lower level youth we should have received because, all things being equal in scouting and development, our haul would have been significantly more talented.
At least it should have been given the nature of value.
This is where Neal Huntington and the new regime failed in this rebuild. It can’t possibly succeed because they turned over the talent they had for the wrong return. I don’t care how much any of you like or dislike the trades because that’s not the point.. the point is, if Nutting had spent free agent money to fill his roster during the rebuild, and had Huntington proceeded with his long-term plan as he initially stated of seeking higher quality lower level talent instead of the 0-3′s he took back, our system should be stocked with impact talent right now instead of a lot of average guys who may or may not make it (Morris being the exception to the rule). Throw in the last three drafts on top of that talent and our system would be one of the most stocked in the game.
But it’s not.
If you can’t rebuild with additional compensatory draft picks, you have to rebuild risking with lower level impact probable prospects. By taking back as many 0-3′s as we did, we saved Nutting a crap load of cash in the short-term but also dramatically lowered our chances of a successful rebuild. Sure, Nutting has spent $8MM per year in his draft allocation budget to help the rebuild, but that’s peanuts compared to the $30MM+ he should have been spending on player salaries to field a roster after dealing all his veterans for youth. Had he spent both the $30MM plus the $8MM, we would be well into a decent rebuild. On top of that, Alvarez and Lincoln wouldn’t have had to be rushed up and we could have saved at least one year of McCutchen’s clock.
Instead, we have no impact talent in our minor league system now that Alvarez is in Pittsburgh, albeit Morris is the next best thing.
Now here’s the thing – any owner in their right mind would probably have fired Frank Coonelly, John Russell and Neal Huntington by now. By all accounts they have failed significantly worse than many of those losing their jobs around the game have. But it’s more than that – the fans lost their faith in them too. Instead of saying ‘I believe in this group’ as they did in the beginning, the fans now say ‘I’m willing to give them more time’ but many of those fans are now even abandoning that position.
But the owner hasn’t pulled the plug because he has a stable of ‘yes men’ willing to work paycheck-to-paycheck to save Nutting every dollar they can. Nutting doesn’t want to let these guys go – my gosh, that would require him having to hire new people who will want Nutting to spend money because that is what it will take to turn this whole thing around.
And Nutting has NEVER shown a propensity to spend any money outside of major league acquisitions where he was taken to the cleaners, like with Matt Morris or Iwamura.
Nothing has changed folks – we need ownership who will spend to field a competitive product. All this rebuilding crap over the last three years has gotten us nowhere because it should have been going on year-after-year anyway since we are a smaller market club.
We’re going nowhere.. spinning our wheels.. all for the sake of Nutting’s bank account. It’s 2003/2006 all over again folks. Get back out your yellow t-shirts.
After you finally wake up, that is.
By Jake, on June 10, 2010, at 11:58 pm |
I was only able to see the last few innings of the game Thursday night so I didn’t see LaRoche’s one hop throw Doumit wasn’t able to glove, wasn’t able to see the home runs we gave up early in the game, and wasn’t able to see Doumit swing the bat to see if his right wrist looks to be ailing. What I did see was Doumit scoop up a Crosby throw that was in the dirt thrown off his wrong foot, Donnelly give up a home run late, and some pathetic swings in the box by our guys.
Oh, and I saw the stat that said this was the first Nats series sweep of the year. That was ugly to read. We’ve won just 3 of our last 14 for what has to be a record-low .214 winning percentage over 9% of the schedule this year under this regime.
We play 12 of the next 18 on the road to close out June. Now remember, we have a .227 winning percentage on the road over our last 75 road games so if we assume 3 wins out of the next 12 on the road, and we assume we play .500 ball in the remaining 6 at home for another 3 wins, that will give as 29 wins to close out the month of June and one win short of where I expected them to be. Big picture? We play 18 of our next 28 on the road and all of them either inter-league or division rivals.
It’s not a pretty picture.
And look closer at the second-half of our schedule – it gets easier and easier as time goes by so you would expect the Pirates front office to hold back Alvarez until after the All-Star break, if they bring him up at all before September. That may not happen since they already jumped started Lincoln in typical Bob Nutting sell-tickets-knee-jerk-fashion, so there you go.
Now we head to Detroit and have to face Verlander in game one. That’s going to seem like a piece of cake after facing Strasburg, huh? The good news is Verlander hasn’t exactly been on top of his game lately, the Tigers have been having a hard time seeing the ball from right-hand pitchers, and the biggest fault in this Tigers roster has been letting down in what appears to be an easy contest.
The line in Vegas in this game is off the charts but it might be a good game to take a little risk with the Pirates.. hint-hint. I better also tell you that as many meatballs Ohlendorf threw over the plate in his last few starts you could eat for an entire year, but somehow batters didn’t find them so who knows – he either gets absolutely hammered or he keeps us close. Flip-a-coin.. but before you flip know that the Bucs are 1-11 in Ohlendorf’s last 12 road starts despite many of them being close games. Ouch.
We face Bonderman Saturday night and we should hit him a little harder but the bad thing about it is, Maholm is his mound opponent and about the only thing the Tigers are doing consistently this year is crushing southpaws. And I mean crushing, especially lately. Then Karstens against Galarraga who, as you surely have heard, has been lights out recently. Funny thing, the Tigers will probably field a “B” lineup Sunday so if you were to take another risk in Vegas..
–
The Curve were no-hit by the Harrisburg Senators Friday night. Rudy Owens took the loss. The only batter to reach base was Chase d’Arnaud and he was immediately erased when Hernandez hit into a double play. Chuck James started that game off for the Senators.
The Curve send Bryan Morris to face off against Kyle Gibson Friday night. Now that should be a good game.
Alvarez continued his hitting way against the suspect Pawtucket pitching staff by going 2-3 Thursday. He should continue to wail the ball over the next nine games before he finally sees some better pitching.
–
I had an interesting e-mail from a reader who is probably related to Bryan Morris somehow but I really liked the aggressive thinking they suggested. They were wondering if Morris should be promoted to make Sunday’s start against the Tigers. Not because they believe he’s 100% ready, not because he matches up pretty good in that slot over the next few games before the break, but because the Pirates took the liberty of moving Lincoln when they did and Morris is arguably throwing better than Lincoln was. Besides, they went on to say, before the Pirates trade Maholm and/or Duke as speculated this July, why not give this rotation a chance before pulling the plug.
My initial reaction was – that’s insane.. I’m not an advocate of starting clocks for players who don’t have a support system around or behind them. Then I asked three scouts who have watched Morris throw this year – all of them previously affiliated – if he could survive and all three were quick to say his stuff is better than any of the starters in Pittsburgh. Bar none. He’s raw, but he’s a competitor they said. When I questioned his lack of a workload the last few years, one (good) scout suggested that the Pirates will probably take him to 150 innings this year anyway as long as he stays healthy.
I went back to thinking – how far off is Morris in the Pirates FO eyes? A June 2011 call up would probably be a good guess, as long as he continues to dominate at each level and remains healthy. So I asked the scouts to crosscheck the Eastern League Morris will likely face over the next few months and they all believe he’s going to dominate the talent he’ll see. His real challenge will come at triple-A and even then it’s not like there is a lot of talent.
Hmm.. unquestionably there is a lot more stress throwing at the major league level, and unquestionably Morris will have to be shut down later in the year, so if he’s really not going to be challenged in double-A and the Pirates main concern of starting his clock too early as a possible super-two candidate could be resolved by shutting him down in September and having him spend April in triple-A in 2011 (thereby getting the additional year as well), heck, why not bring him up?
I mean, the Pirates already went off the roadmap by adding Lincoln so surely Alvarez is days away in their mind,and since I can’t get my personal fan wish of a wave building in triple-A over the next year or more, bringing up Morris makes about as much sense as everything else they are doing right now.
So, bring up Morris. Let’s get him off the irregular mounds and busses in the minors and let him spend the next few months finishing his craft under the watchful eye of Joe Kerrigan. What the heck do we have to lose?
Tip of the hat to the writer for the thought. While the probability of Morris being brought out of double-A right now is about zilch, I have to admit you made some good points. In the scheme of things, I wouldn’t even consider it but neither would I have brought Lincoln out either.
–
“Our scouts have consistently projected Clement to be an everyday major league contributor with the power to hit 20-plus home runs,” Pirates GM Neal Huntington said.” — ESPN, August 2009
Clement, of course, was just optioned to triple-A.
I was 100% behind the dumping of Jack Wilson last year, I was 100% behind the dumping of Ian Snell as well, and I was 100% behind bringing in Clement as a catcher. As a fan I didn’t know the extent of Clement’s injuries, plus I never got to see him play on the other coast and was in the dark on his true skill set, so I had to trust Huntington’s decision just like you when Clement was brought in as the main piece of the Wilson/Snell trade.
It was clear to see that Jeff Clement had a lot more problems than was advertised and the remaining pieces we picked up in that deal are basically org fillers down the road, so Huntington and his scouts who projected Clement need new evaluator licenses. Now it’s not like there was a huge market for Wilson and Snell but looking back today it’s pretty obvious that deal was a 100% salary dump and nothing more. Wilson had to go – the clubhouse demanded it. But I’m not in the camp that believes we couldn’t have received one serviceable player in return for both Snell and Wilson. Nor am I in the camp that believes Clement has any future with this club other than as a 4A player – his problems are too significant.
We took a beating on that trade even with Snell and Wilson floundering in Seattle because we don’t know what they would have done if they stayed in Pittsburgh. I mean, Snell was pitching better than Morton and Wilson was playing about as good as Cedeno. Would Wilson have got hurt with us? I don’t know. And to be brutally honest, even with Wilson’s junk year he’s doing better than Aki and Crosby and Wilson has as many rbi’s and extra base hits as Walker does (75 AB to 59 for Walker). Pea size sample alert, but there you go all the same.
Were they worth keeping for $10MM? Obviously not – if anything, the Mariners took a bigger hit than we did since they had to pick up the money owed. But while Bob Nutting walked away with about $5MM in book savings, he very well might have lost more than $5MM in local trade considering all the Wilson fans, considering how poor Clement has done which has to have hurt his attendance figures a tick, and now with everyone questioning Coonelly’s ‘team’ and the evaluators we have, who knows what is in store down the road if this team doesn’t start winning some games.
Sometimes the obvious deals probably aren’t the ones that should be made. It’s a humbling game.
–
Who is this guy named Joel Hanrahan? Oh my.. where did he come from? Stay tuned.
–
You think there is any coincidence between Doumit starting at first one game before inter-league action? LOL.. talk about having a neon sign over him that says “I’m available – look me over!”
By Jake, on May 4, 2010, at 10:45 pm |
Game time 7:05, 69 degrees, and a very low 34% humidity. Thin air means long ball time and that’s exactly what both clubs shot for all night – home runs.
The difference in this game came down to two plays — one, a two-out booted light ground ball off the bat of Garrett Jones in the 6th by Ryan Theriot which allowed Ryan Church to get to the plate. Theriot was shifted close to the second base bag and Jones poked the ground ball to normal short but Theriot couldn’t handle the ball and Jones was safe. On the fourth pitch Church saw in a 1-2 count, he lined a Dempster fastball over the Clemente wall putting the Bucs up 3-2.
The second play was in the 9th when Dotel came out to close and Fontenot swung at ball four leading off the inning. Lee then walked which might have put two men on when Byrd hit a sharp grounder to LaRoche’s left side that he ranged a mile for, dove, and was able to throw Lee out at second. Had Fontenot walked, he would had been standing at third and, all things being equal, Soriano would have come to the plate.
The were other opportunities for scoring by both clubs but each one fell short. The Cubs loaded the bases in the second after two quick outs and then Baker popped up meekly to second to end the threat. The Cubs threatened again in the 6th after Soto hit a solo shot. With men at second and third and two outs, Baker again ended the inning by lining out to Cedeno. You can’t help wondering why the Cubs have Soriano batting sixth instead of second and to get more opportunities. Very strange stuff.
In the 7th, Cedeno and Young both singled after one out and then Aki struck out for an unproductive AB. LaRoche then lined one into center, Byrd was playing in and was quick to the ball and came up firing to home as Cedeno made a very wide turn at third heading home. Cedeno slid and Soto tried to block the plate and, by my eyes, it looked like Cedeno caught the back of home plate with his knee and Soto missed him with the tag. However, home plate umpire Dale Scott called him out and that ended the inning.
Dempster didn’t look sharp at all, but he was effective against our lineup. His velocity seemed down from the last time I saw him in 2009.. he was throwing 88 – 91 MPH tonight and I thought I remembered him in the 91 – 93 range in the past? Obviously he doesn’t read all the scouting reports because he came after Andy LaRoche with three straight fastballs and LaRoche deposited the third one in the left field bleachers in the first inning. Good stuff there.
Maholm was beaten to a pulp all night long by Dale Scott who refused to give him the paint on either side of the plate, although he did give both sides to Dempster more often. I’ve seen this same thing a little more this year with Doumit than I saw last year, but in 2008 Doumit couldn’t get calls for his pitchers an inch inside the paint it seemed. I’m assuming it had more to do with the movement on Maholm’s pitches than with Doumit since he was framing pitches well with a quiet glove, but it makes me wonder going into Wednesday’s game if we have an umpire crew destined to give the opposition a few more breaks? If so, Morton could be in trouble. We’ll see how this plays out.
Meek had his worst outing of the year unable to command his pitches. In the first 15 he threw, only 3 were strikes. He recovered by throwing high heat that batters chased unable to catch up to the pitch, but he looked like he had a dead arm to me. And Dotel was Dotel – throwing meatballs down the pike but nobody hurt him this night.
A few notes –
Ryan Church played a very solid center field. I tip my hat to him because I’ve chastised his ability to play center here. While it’s true the only routes he ran were forward and backwards most of the game and thus his weakness wasn’t exposed, he still did a good job. Rule 5 pick John Raynor was sent back to Florida after Mike Hill and Neal Huntington seemingly couldn’t come to an agreement on a trade (that was expected considering the two GM’s haven’t had the best of relationships so far) and that leaves Church as the best option for McCutchen’s days off.
Iwamura is totally lost in space. His game has diminished to the point of being almost worthless. His range at second is well below average, he can’t turn two much anymore because of slow footwork and average throws, his approach at the plate is horrid, and his body language lately has said ‘I really don’t want to be on the field playing baseball’ — all of which is concerning. John Russell needs to give him some extended time off to get his mind back into the game. Young can play second just as good as Aki is playing right now and probably hit the ball better.
What happened to the fire under Lastings Milledge’s butt? He opened the season as a ‘new man’ and was actually doing the right things – putting the ball in play the opposite way when he got a chance, going deeper in counts, and even hitting a bit clutch here and there. Now the fire is gone, he’s swinging at moths flying around the plate, and seems to have become a guess hitter. On defense he continues to hustle for the ball, and he’s still running out his outs like he means business, and both of those signs are encouraging, but he just doesn’t seem to have the intensity any more. Perhaps the all the losing has caught up to him? I suppose in young players that happens more frequently than veteran players.
Ronny Cedeno.. this guy has become a vacuum cleaner. Notice his footwork now, notice his throws, notice the outs he’s generating. All hail Perry Hill. Oh yeah, I’ve already said that. Many times. And how about LaRoche’s defense lately? He’s anticipating unlike I’ve ever seen from him, which is creating some unbelievable range. Yeah, yeah, look up Perry Hill again.
Cubs are now 1-10 when they score three runs or less.
–
Now this is filthy: No, not Shelby Ford going 3-3! Look down at the pitchers — Rudy Owens threw no-hitter through six at Richmond last night. His perfect game bid was negated by a walk he issued. Obviously he hit his pitch count and had to come out, but what a performance! And yes, Bucs Prospects had a scout at the game and his report will be up sometime Wednesday along with his coverage of Alderson’s start.
Somewhere in my mind over the last week I had thought Richmond was Greenville from the South Atlantic League which is a pretty decent hitting team. Richmond isn’t. Anyway, here’s a short blurb on Owens work from the Curve’s media department:
“Richmond, Va – Curve lefty Rudy Owens tossed six no-hit innings and struck out 11 batters and the Altoona Curve offense provided plenty of assistance early and often to aid in a 9-1 thumping of the Richmond Flying Squirrels (AA – San Francisco) on Tuesday night at The Diamond.
Owens bested his career-mark in strikeouts by two and only permitted one base runner. The southpaw tossed 97 pitches in the outing for his third win of the year with 64 of those pitches being strikes.”
Imagine that – one day after I called him out for being a #4 at best and he beats me to the ground with this performance. I tip my hat to him (but I won’t change my upside projection.. at least, not yet.)
–
All the talk about Charlie Morton tipping pitches is really amazing. Yes, I let the Bucs know what I heard but to be honest, I’m sure they were very aware of any possible tipping. I didn’t realize that this went back a few weeks to some MLB program where a guy said Morton was tipping. Now it all makes sense. Anyway, I don’t think for one minute Morton’s demise was due to his tipping off his fastball, but neither do I believe it helped him. If you can’t command more than one pitch, you’re going to get mauled at this level and that’s what happened to Morton.. not because he may have been tipping. BTW, I heard his tipping went all the way back to Atlanta days and he was told back then he was giving away his fastball.
–
 That’s a really sad picture.
I’m sure Gorzy is happy to be on a team that consistently wins more than 70 games, and I’m sure he loves playing so close to home.
But when I think back to all the conversations I had with the Pirates brass before and after this trade, all I remember is them saying he wasn’t the same guy I knew anymore. I kept arguing that his arm was toast.
The real reason why Gorzelanny was tossed aside will never be known but the fact is, he’s pitching better than anybody we have on our roster right now and you can’t help wondering what-if.
At the time the trade went down I said it amounted to another Aramis Ramirez giveaway, and it was. That was Neal Huntington’s worst deal by far.
–
I think I’m going to start jumping on the Chris Sale bandwagon for our #2 pick in the draft. I say that because we won’t be able to sign the best player available in Tallion, and I’d guess AJ Cole (the third best arm in this draft after Tallion and McGuire in my book) will want more than he’s worth to avoid college, so that leaves Sale for me. I’m not 100% yet so don’t start your hammering but I do like him better than Pomeranz.
I’m simply not in the Machado camp.. I’m leaning toward some of the reports which question his bat and makeup. James Paxton is intriguing, as is Zach Cox, and, man, it’s not easy passing up Yasmani Grandal who is an outstanding player, but I love the way Sale’s stuff projects in our park, I like the guy’s makeup and fortitude, he fits perfectly into our second wave, and I think he’ll fill out to around 200 pounds and probably gain a few more MPH.
In other words, I think he projects a lot better than he’s being given credit for.
By Jake, on April 30, 2010, at 10:48 pm |
I’m traveling and will only be able to catch the first few innings of the game before my flight so let’s talk about a few hanging chads instead.
You’ve heard the talk circling around the media that the Nuttings might be selling, and if you ask anyone around the game right now why Neal Huntington hasn’t been extended, you are likely to hear that they believe Huntington’s future is tied to a future sale. I’ve already stated I haven’t heard anything concrete about the Nuttings selling and to instead stay focused on the reality of the business side of the game. Let me put it another way..
The Bucs are in their third year of a full rebuild and opened the season with a tough early schedule with quite a few question marks and a lot of young players on the roster. It didn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out this team wasn’t going to contend so I’d guess their plan was to have an early year scapegoat and that was probably John Russell. You know, the manager is always the first to fall. So instead of extending Huntington which, in turn, would have allowed him to extend Russell absent ownership interference (which includes Coonelly in my book), the Pirates brain trust probably decided it was a better PR move to keep hope in the fans tanks in the form of a potential head or two to be bounced instead of extending them earlier in the year.
So, I’m not in the camp that believes Huntington didn’t get extended because of a potential sale. Fact is, Huntington and Russell make so little that, if Ogden did sell and the new owner wanted to go a different way, they could have just sent them all home for the 2011 season.
That being said I will tell you I continue to hear whispers of concern within the organization much like I did in 2006 before it was announced the Nuttings were taking out McClatchy. My gut feeling is that Ogden Nutting simply wanted a cash cow during the recession and just happened to be in the right place at the right time to make a few extra dollars with his Pirates holdings. It’s hard to blame the guy. With the new CBA quickly approaching which could alter the way money is distributed within the game and/or some finger-pointing at owners not spending like Nutting, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them run.
Joe Starkey recently called for the Pirates to extend Russell and Huntington. Starkey’s argument was less than persuasive. As a fan, I’m totally against Russell being extended and feel he should have been fired long ago. However, I doubt Frank Coonelly has the balls to make any controversial decisions that will affect this club while his name is being thrown around as a candidate to replace Selig, even as faint as they are.
–
The game just started and Aki doubled and Cutch picked him up with a very nice double into the left centerfield gap. Morton took the mound and his misery started on the second pitch which was hammered into left for a single and, seven pitches later, Ethier took him deep putting the Dodgers up 2-1 after one.
A couple of quick notes — Morton is looking into the dugout before every pitch with men on so it’s very possible Kerrigan is calling part of the game for Morton. I can’t think of any other reason why Morton would be looking in every pitch. Second note is that he remains up in the zone with his stuff and that only spells impending disaster.. it’s just a matter of time (but this is the 2010 Dodgers, huh?). He’s shown a plus curve early but he can’t get anyone to swing on it – batters are keying on his fastball.
–
Kevin Hart with a torn labrum. I expressed my shock and disgust for that trade a long time ago and this only solidifies my position. I wonder if the Bucs even took the time to give Hart an MRI before making the trade? I doubt it.
Don’t forget we traded for him knowing he was +121 innings from 2007 to 2008 and then we ran him +50 innings from 2008 to 2009. That’s incompetence at its finest. Side note — don’t be too surprised if you eventually see Morton heading for surgery too; Ohlendorf is a candidate as well. All these guys have huge inning swings over the last few years.
One final thought from spring training and Hart – March 6th against the Phillies he pitched and a friend of mine at the game who coached some in div 1 baseball told me Hart wasn’t able to finish his pitches and concerned that he was putting a lot of pressure on his shoulder. In that post that day I said:
“I received from someone at the game (not a pro) who said Hart didn’t look like he was finishing his pitches and Kerrigan went out one time to try to get him under control again. Media reports suggest Hart was just pumped up but when a guy throw that many balls.. You also have to wonder why Kerrigan didn’t send Jaramillo out more often to Hart with his messages.. why take a chance in the guy hurting himself if he’s opening up too early or landing hard?”
I’m guessing Hart was already hurt before that outing.
–
Opps.. Morton just gave up a blast to Loney on a hung slider in his breadbasket with two outs and two on. Clement and Crosby both had errors in the inning booting ground balls so Morton won’t take a bad hit.
McCutchen with a run saving dive in the 4th. Wow – nice play.
There’s my flight call.. gotta go.
By Jake, on April 22, 2010, at 12:10 am |
Tip your hat to the Brewers, they came in with a plan against Duke, stuck to it, and it eventually paid off.
As I mentioned the other day might happen with our outfield alignment, the Brewers started swinging early in fastball counts trying to beat the shift and it worked. Braun’s first inning yardball was to left on the second pitch he saw which was a fastball, he was given another fastball in the second pitch in the 4th he pushed to right and dropped at Jones’ feet, Escobar hit a first pitch ground ball down the third base line for a triple in the 5th, Weeks home run two batters later was on a first pitch hook he golfed to left, Gomez hit a second pitch fastball over Cutch’s head for a double, and Gerut hit a first pitch home run to right center on a fastball. One other hit came on a first pitch swing and that was a rbi swinging bunt by McGehee in the 5th.
That’s seven hits on the first two pitches.. Duke only recorded four outs, 36%, under the same circumstance of a ball in play in the first two pitches. It’s not unusual for Duke to see batters put the ball in play early in the count – 73% have this year in four pitches or less – but it was unusual to see so many hit so hard.
I’m guessing Duke will say he was up in the zone or had poor pitch location most of the night but that wasn’t the case – it was a combination of pitch selection and being too repetitive to the same hitters.
I also saw Duke lose his composure a couple of times.. his eighth pitch of the game was called a ball but was clearly a strike and his body langauge on the mound immediately changed. The next pitch he overthrew a hook that bounced well in front of the plate, the one after that was an overthrown fastball that Gomez ground back to him, then two pitches later Braun took him deep.
In the fourth his composure changed again. After retiring eight straight Gomez led off with a routine grounder to Iwamura’s left side that he booted and Gomez reached. I didn’t see Duke get too upset over that play but then two pitches later, Braun hit a fly ball to right that Jones probably could have caught if he recognized the spin off the bat but it fell in at his feet instead and Gomez was now at third. Duke seemed to harden a little and got Fielder to ground out to Aki but Gomez scored, and then the inning ended three batters later without any more damage.
Up to this point I hadn’t really seen the ‘Duke shoulder slump’ routine indicating to me he had taken himself out of the game mentally, but that finally happened in the 5th.
Escobar led off with an average hit ground ball into left with Milledge playing left center, and by the time Milledge got to the ball in the corner and threw a relay in, Escobar was standing at third base. Would LaRoche have fielded that ground ball if he had been playing instead of Young? Maybe. But there was no way Escobar should have been at third if he hadn’t.
Duke was obviously upset.. maybe blaming himself some for the pitch location, maybe some of it because Young was playing third and there might have been a missed out, but certainly some because a double just turned into a triple no fault of his own. Gallardo then popped up on the first pitch and then Duke threw a slider to Weeks and he golfed a rocket over the left field fence. At that point it didn’t matter what happened with Escobar because Weeks beat a good Duke offering.
Then everything fell apart.
Gomez hammered the line drive over Cutch’s head for a double, Braun walked on four pitches, while Fielder was up Gomez and Braun pulled a double-steal on Duke who wasn’t paying attention, Fielder then walked to load the bases, and McGehee hit a dribbler in front of home plate that Doumit could only get the out at first with. Hart then walked to load them again and Zaun ground out to end the inning. Three hits – all extra bases, three walks, and three runs.
John Russell sent Duke up to bat to lead off the bottom of the fifth and he doubled but I couldn’t help wondering why Russell kept him in the game after the beating he just took. And just as soon as I asked that question Cedeno hit a grounder to short and Duke started to take off for third with the play in front of him and was caught in a run down.
Duke went out to the mound to start the 6th and you could just tell he didn’t want to be out there.. Escobar hammered a line drive to right that Jones turned the wrong way going back for the ball and it ran to the wall. By the time the ball hit the infield, Escobar had another triple. The very next pitch Gerut hit a fastball up in the zone over the right center field wall like it came out of a cannon. Weeks came up and after three pitches Duke threw one at his chin that hit his upper body and Russell went out to get him.
Duke walked off the field with a tightly clenched mouth as if cussing Russell out the entire way.
Another question I asked the other day: was it possible Duke’s pissed off state about John Russell from his last start would carry over to this game? The answer seemed to be no, but it seemed as if Russell poured salt on Duke’s old wound by forcing him to bat in the bottom of the fifth and coming out again down 5-0 in the 6th. But that’s my take.
I thought Duke pitched pretty well for the most part. He caught too much plate on a few pitches, he took himself out mentally a few times too, but for the most part his stuff was crisp and down in the zone. The problem we have is that..
We have horrid outfield defense.. Jones bleeds so many runs with our southpaws it isn’t even funny and the last few games we’ve seen the outfield shift start to bleed quite a few runs in left. Dejan linked to some bloggers take on the alignment who used hit charts the last two years at PNC to try to determine if the shift was worth it or not and, by his charts, you would think so.
Unfortunately, the blogger wasn’t comparing apples to oranges.
Not only has the entire rotation and bullpen makeup changed, but we’ve had two different pitching coaches and we have different fielders not to mention so many catchers. But that’s just the start of the problem with that study.. the biggest problem is that major league hitters are pros at adjusting to how they are being pitched to and the way they are being defended. That’s why I said expect the opposition to be free swinging on early fastball counts to pull the ball more into the vacated corner in left, and it’s working for them. Expect to see it more and more as the season goes on.
My initial limited study suggested we were about neutral in wins based on the shift this year but I was cautious to state that my study included too few games to make it meaningful. As time goes by and more and more teams make their adjustments to our one-for-all, all-for-one positioning strategy, it’s easy to see how we’re going to lose a lot more than one or two games from it.
The question becomes, how many will it save?
My guess is very few since we have a rotation of pitch to contact arms… all batters can adjust too easily without fear of being in a two-strike count. We’ve already given up more triples to left field this year than we did all last year into the notch. Haven’t we? It sure seems that way. And how many times has Cedeno had to range far to his right into the hole to make unbelievable plays because batters are shooting for the LF corner? Quite a few and, to his credit, he’s eating them up. He and LaRoche are the two bright spots on defense, albeit Cutch’s routes are much more improved.
Back to Wednesday’s game.. tip your hat to Gallardo. I watched film on his last start before this game and didn’t think he could tighten his stuff up as well as he did. Boy, was I wrong. Not only was he throwing a tight breaking ball with deep depth, he was locating his fastball unlike he had been able to since spring training. His slider was average and he hung it a few times, but once in a while he would throw it well.
Perhaps that goes to show you how a lineup without fear can turn the confidence of a good young starter around overnight? When he was up in the zone we didn’t take advantage, and when we did get a hit, he simply dominated the next few batters he faced to get out of the problem or we ran ourselves out of the problem for him. True, we’re a poor offspeed pitch hitting club. Part of that is our youth but part of that is the instruction and development they are receiving too.
But don’t take anything away from Gallardo.. his stuff was good, he was on, and he deserved the win.
–
If you take anything away from this series, take away the professional demeanor of the entire Brewers roster. The difference between them and us is like night and day. They are men playing the game.. we are boys trying to figure out how the game is played. Part of our problem is that we have too many dysfunctions.. players out of their natural positions, starting pitching that shouldn’t even be on a 25-man, a catcher who has no business behind the plate, we’ve traded for players like Aki who have hurt us more than helped, and the list goes on and on. The Brewers are put together with toolsy pros and managed by pros. What a huge difference it is having Randolph and Macha leading the way compared to a bleeping John Russell.
As I said yesterday, we’re a freak show.
–
Speaking about needing pitching in Pittsburgh, how about this bizarre development in Chicago — Tom Gorzelanny will remain in the rotation when Ted Lilly comes off the DL and Carlos Zambrano will go to the pen.
Unbelievable.
–
Argenis Diaz up and Burres down. The reason we heard is that LaRoche’s back tightened up again and we needed another infielder since Crosby is also down. Good for Diaz.. let’s see what he can do under pressure.
By Jake, on April 20, 2010, at 11:04 pm |
Charlie Morton: 1 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 ER, 6 R
Few umpires rattle pitcher’s cages like Jerry Layne does. He was called out in the early 90′s as having too liberal a strike zone and then tightened it up so much that over the last five-plus years it’s become the size of a pea, especially on offspeed pitches middle of the plate and out.
Unfortunately, Layne’s zone didn’t have any affect on Charlie Morton Tuesday because Charlie Morton didn’t have any stuff to be affected by the zone. His fastball ran straight, he lacked command — once again — of his offspeed pitches, and he failed to attack hitters early in the count (tossed two balls in first three pitches in 6 of 9 batters who didn’t put the ball in play in the first three pitches). Perhaps there was one or two pitches close to the zone Layne didn’t give him a call on, but not a lot and certainly not enough to rattle Morton.
I had hoped to see Joe Kerrigan and Morton come out with a new game plan adjusting to the way batters were sitting on his fastball. That did not happen and even I bought into something that I shouldn’t have. Perhaps Kerrigan didn’t want to waste his time because Morton hasn’t shown any inclination whatsoever to command his curve and slider this year?
It’s clearly obvious Morton needs a trip down memory lane to 3A on his last option. He’s beat mentally, he doesn’t have a pitch to get major league hitters out, his fastball is running too true, and he’s lost the ability to throw his offspeed pitches for strikes in fastball counts. Now he can’t even command his fastball.
You might make an argument that he’s a sinkerball guy and was likely to get hit hard early in the season anyway, so why not just keep him in Pittsburgh? The answer to that is simple – he’s shell-shocked and his next two starts are on the road against Houston and the Dodgers.. both with mature lineups who will feast off his stuff. The next four after that would be the Cubs then Reds at PNC, then the Cubs at Wrigley and then the Brewers again at PNC. With the powder puff stuff he’s throwing, he won’t get through the first couple of innings in any of those games.
So who should take his place? I’ve said since spring training that Carrasco should have been stretched out to use as a starter early in the season. He’s going to give up some runs himself but he at least has some stuff to get major league hitters out. The problem is, Carrasco wasn’t stretched out so he’s not an option right now. That leaves Burres who came in this evening and shut the door albeit it looked more like Brewers batters simply started taking it easy with an 8-0 lead.
The key to me is that Neal Huntington needs to take it on the chin and declare the Morton experiment a dud for now and move him out to give him a chance to his mindset straightened out. Maybe Morton makes it back in July or August — maybe he doesn’t. I just don’t want to hear Huntington say later in the year that players didn’t perform to expectations because the only expectation any of us had with Morton was failure with his near 6 ERA and .310 winning percentage career numbers in the senior circuit. This year nearly 40% of the batters who have faced him ended up scoring so there’s no excuse for him to make another start in Pittsburgh.
Let’s move on.
In order to do that we have to take a second and question the ability of the Pirates pro scouts to evaluate pitching talent. They have done a below average job, as has Huntington. I’ve said for years guys like Vuckovich and Robertson are great to have around but either they aren’t getting the job done or their voices are being drown out by guys like Corrigan and Huntington. No way should Hart or Morton have been brought in.. we were hammered in those trades. Adding 7th inning junk like Ohlendorf or McCutchen to add some depth by taking on risk was one thing, adding Hart and Morton are clearly another matter entirely. And I don’t care how long you want to take to evaluate the trades – take another three years.. it won’t matter.. you’re just wasting your time. There’s too many problems under the hood with all these guys.
But it won’t matter in the end.. Neal Huntington is Frank Coonelly’s puppy and Frank’s going to keep patting him like the good owner’s puppet he is. That means the scouts get a free ride too.
OMG.
–
Believe it or not, that is only the third game this year that we were losing after the first inning.
–
Ryan Doumit needs to be dealt. He”s so far out of it every game now he looks like he’s on drugs half the time. His swings are pathetic, his approach is worse, his receiving skills are a stab in the dark, and his inability to focus on what is happening in the game is sad to see. He’s lost in space, especially in-game management.
There’s another grounder somewhere.. there’s another lazy fly ball somewhere.. you know the routine. Once in a while he lucks up and stings the ball, but rarely anymore. I don’t know if he’s hurt, doesn’t care, just playing indifferent, or what it is, but his value right now is about as low as it can get. I’d bet the morale of this team would be greatly enhanced if Doumit exited stage right.
Once again, why he wasn’t dealt last winter is beyond me. Nobody seems to want him around and he doesn’t want to be here. Take the loss and move on. Jaramillo can catch 130 games so move Clement back in as a backup catcher since it’s pretty obvious his pitch recognition skills are well below average.
–
And what the heck is going on with Garrett Jones this year in right field? He looks like a ten-year-old girl running down balls on the grass. Seriously.. he’s that slow and awkward looking. As a fan I expect to see him take questionable routes to get to the ball because he’s shown he’s not exactly a good cover guy, but what’s his excuse for the lack of hustle to the ball? Or all the bobbles once he does get to it?
And Tuesday night’s over the shoulder catch on McGehee’s fly ball in the second? Not only did he not have to catch the ball with such dramatics, it took him out of trying to halt advancing runners (not that he could have stopped them, but still). Absolutely bizarre fundamentals.
–
If I’ve said this once I’ve said it a million times since spring training – Akinori Iwamura is, perhaps, the stupidest base runner in the game of baseball. He’s not just stupid, he’s lazy as hell. He’s failed to take extra bases so many times I’ve run out of ink keeping track and it’s only the 20th of April. The fact he is our leadoff batter is mind-boggling to me.
Here’s a great example from Tuesday’s game. Aki doubles to start the Pirates off in the first and McCutchen hits a slow roller down the third base line that forces McGehee to run in full-bore and bare hand to throw Cutch out on.
Where’s Aki?
Sitting comfortably on the bag at second watching the play like a spectator in the stands.
WTF?
Had he crawled to third on his hands and knees from his initial lead on the pitch he would have made it. I’m not kidding. As you might expect, if he had been at third Milledge would have scored him with his grounder to deep first and the Brewers lead would have been cut to 3-1.
Or how about this one Tuesday night.. it’s the 5th inning, Aki at second, Cutch at first, there’s one out, and we’re down a ton of runs. Milledge steps up and hits a line drive falling fast to center field being covered by gold glover Jim Edmonds who makes the catch.
Where’s Aki?
Hell, he scored man. Opps.. oh wait, no… he was doubled off second because he never bothered to look and see if the ball hit the ground or not – he just ran. Double play, inning over. That’s happened a few times this year and at first I seriously thought I was watching a replay of an earlier game he did it in.
And here’s a personal favorite of mine.. Aki singles, Cutch singles to right on a seeing eye grounder, and Aki stops at second. Jones or Milledge comes up and hammers a long fly ball to right and Aki stands on the bag and watches the catch then scratches his nuts. The next batter singles through the middle of the diamond and Aki freezes as if there is less than two outs and a line drive, then realizes he has to run and makes it to third. The next two batters make outs and we strand three.
Don’t laugh.. that’s also happened twice so far in one form or another.
Iwamura is a moron on the base paths and has no business leading off without some major bats behind him that put the ball over the fence forcing him to properly move. I can see why he was so good as a leadoff hitter with the Rays.. they slugged him around the bases. We don’t have the sluggers – we have slap-happy singles hitters and he’s a lead ball gathering dust.
Drop him to the three hole.. get him out of the way of McCutchen. Oh wait.. maybe that’s exactly what our front office is trying to do – clog up the base paths on McCutchen so he doesn’t ring up too many runs scored, or stolen bases, or anything else? You know, devalue the player before asking him to sign a multi-year deal. That’s the Pittsburgh way, right? You know, the PLAN.
We’re a freak show.
–
Are we witnessing a new breed of cultural misfits in Pittsburgh? Let’s call them the brats..
“I don’t WANT to play right field. I WANT to play first!” (I’ll show them!)
“I don’t WANT to play first base, I WANT to catch!” (I’ll show them!)
“I don’t WANT to play with you, TRADE me!” (I’ll show them!)
“I WANT you to start me!” “Me TOO!” (Hell, it’s the fastest way out of this place – be a starter and fail big time.)
And so on, and so forth.
–
Packed house Tuesday:
–
Did someone say start watching those Astros?
hhmm..
–
Ten days ago Dwight Gill told us the Pirates were playing better than their record. See what he said Tuesday afternoon at Bucs Prospects. By the way, don’t forget to check out his updated Pirates XERA database. Good stuff there.
–
Edinson Volquez is given a 50-game suspension for testing positive for steroids and the suspension starts Wednesday while he’s on the DL recovering from TJ surgery.
What a joke.
–
An angry e-mail from someone who read my post yesterday suggesting the Brewers were likely to take us apart this series but he then clicked the ‘Jake’s Take’ link above and found I posted PIT as my projected winner in Tuesday’s game and made a bet on it:
“I’m confused. I’m angry.”
Talk to Morton my friend. Better yet, go talk to Huntington and ask him why Morton was allowed to even start if they hadn’t made any adjustments. Personally, I gave too much credit to Huntington thinking he would have jettisoned Morton if his side work showed the same-old, same-old.
Sorry.. my bad.
–
Ok, enough rants about the comedy show in Pittsburgh.. how about some good news?
I’m proud to announce that I have hired scouting correspondent Anup Sinha as the Executive Editor at Bucs Prospects and he’ll be in charge in taking the site to the next level. Sinha is going to standardize the reporting methodologies used by the scouts, increase the number of pro scouts used, insure AP style is followed in the posts, and begin a few other features with new material like adding draft content. It’s an exciting move as the concept continues to grow.
By Jake, on January 19, 2010, at 9:15 pm |
An ex-NL scout handed me his projection today for Andrew McCutchen in 2010: .285/.360/.465 .. 35 stolen bases, 110 runs scored, and 20 home runs – all from the #1 hole. I thought it interesting that he thought 2011 would be the earliest Huntington would consider moving him down the order.
Wow – so much for the sophomore year jinx, huh?
Let me tell you if McCutchen busts out with production like that, some of those optimist comments I’ve seen like “this team might surprise you next year” will be spot-on if our pitching holds together.
A couple of more observations from him –
– he likes Jones bat speed and ability to adjust and thinks he’ll maintain solid numbers in 2010. He agreed with me that Jones seemed to be vulnerable to getting busted in belt-high and above and said he’ll have to come out of spring training having to handle that pitch or he could flounder. If he does handle it, 30 home runs are not out of the question he said. Amazing.
– like me, he likes Clement but doesn’t think he’ll respond with the bat until late season, if at all in 2010. He suggested that if Clement gets 550 AB in 2010, he’ll be an offensive force to recon with in 2011 likely as the Pirates everyday catcher (that surprised me) – “not enough power, not enough defense, to stay at first.” He thinks Huntington will hold off dealing Doumit until July as he’ll be more valuable to a contender then since questions about his wrist injury linger. I’m still hearing Doumit’s name as a potential trade, however;
– said Maholm could blossom to a #2 type starter (another shocker) and several teams are high on him. I asked when he thought Huntington would deal him and he responded that he thought Huntington would hold him to the end of his contract unless handed a must-trade opportunity;
– unlike me, he likes Ohlendorf as a #3/#4 starter and thinks Kerrigan is the right guy to help him adjust to the league. If he isn’t able to, he thinks May and on could be rough for Ohlendorf;
– not high on Morton, not high on Cedeno, likes Hart over McCutchen to start the year in the rotation, questions if Aki is truly healthy, said Duke was a solid MLB #4 starter, and not high on Moss.
His “wild guess” is 75 wins.
–
Brandon Jones, huh? He’s a Braves draft-and-follow failure the scouts were always mixed on. Some thought his defense would be his saving grace, others thought his bat would come around. Now at 26, he’s a marginal prospect with a tick of upside and good makeup put on the wire with an option, so Huntington grabbed him. Obviously he’ll be assigned to 3A because he’s a notoriously slow starter and by the end of the year he’ll put up incredible numbers making Huntington’s 3A club — and Huntington – look good. If Jones ever finds more plate discipline and learns how to run better outfield routes, he might be a candidate for a 4th OF role in 2011, but don’t count on it.
–
A charge of family abuse was dropped against Tyler Yates who was arrested and later bonded out. A quick review of the statute linked above suggests that Yates’ victim must have had some obvious injury for him to be arrested in the first place, although that’s speculation on my part. Since I don’t know what happened, I won’t guesstimate on Yates’ makeup and why Huntington didn’t know better before dealing for him.
Congratulations are in order to the Garden Island newspaper for publishing the facts. Also, kudos are in order to Mary Junck of, get this, Ogden, Iowa, the CEO of Lee Enterprises who owns the Garden Island newspaper, for her belief in the public’s right to know. I can only assume the Pirates and/or Ogden Newspapers attempted to squash any release of the Yates arrest which tended to devalue one of Nutting’s commodities, but I don’t know that for sure.
For the record, I never liked the Yates trade. If Todd Redmond was still around, he would most likely be our (raw) 5th starter in 2010.
–
I had heard Neil Walker was out the door but tonight I’m hearing that there may be more than one club in on him now (personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up in San Diego). We’ll see since it will probably happen in the next 24 – 48 hours if it gets done.
–
John Perrotto’s new home away from BP?
By Jake, on January 18, 2010, at 11:33 pm |
One down, three or four to go. Michael Weiner, in his first venture as head of the players union, successfully wrestled the Florida Marlins to baseball’s financial mat and is prepared to take on similarly recalcitrant revenue-sharing rogues. …
Bob Nutting, the Pirates’ managing partner, has been especially criticized by other owners for not spending the money to improve his team, which is on a record 17-year streak of losing seasons. …
“The Pirates, Marlins and Rays are spending nothing on payroll and showing operating profits of $20, $25 million, which goes into the owners’ pockets,” one executive said. …
The combined pressure exerted by Henry, other owners and the union was too much for the commissioner’s office to ignore. When Selig and Manfred don’t let a dispute get to a grievance, a management person said, “you know it’s serious. They made the Marlins accept it.”
Now the Pirates are on deck. There’s no more deserving team to bat next.
That came from an article posted today by Hall of Fame writer Murray Chass. Obviously Chass believes, as we found out yesterday Bill Madden believes, that the Pirates are a future target by some owners and the union.
Indeed.
Unfortunately after digging deep into MLB’s ownership circles Sunday, I came away with the feeling Bob and Ogden Nutting are pretty safe. That’s not to say there isn’t trouble in paradise surrounding the Nutting empire, just that the Pirate Nation isn’t likely to see them cornered by other owners between now and the new CBA talks. If ever.
You can probably thank the Nuttings impeccable strategy timing the transition of power from McClatchy for that.
Remember how McClatchy went public in 2006 stating he wanted Nutting more involved in the organization but Nutting only took baby steps that year, then took the entire 2007 season to “evaluate” his system before implementing change? That one and one-half year stall/delay seems to have perfectly positioned the Nuttings outside the crosshairs of the owners and union.
The Commissioner’s office implemented a yearly recommended minimum payroll threshold several years ago which several teams have failed to meet (the Pirates are one of the clubs that have never met it, I’m told). Not meeting that minimum has drawn the ire of the player’s union especially since quality players have either been forced out of work or had to settle for significant reductions in pay the last couple of years because of the reduced market and demand.
On one hand we have the Commissioner with a recommended salary floor the Pirates didn’t meet, on the other we have the union screaming for more demand for their product, and on the side sit a few well-heeled owners who are fit to be tied that a few owners seem to be taking their ‘charity’ for a Sunday ride and thereby devaluing the MLB brand and their financial position along the way.
Simply put, its greed vs greed vs greed where the ultimate loser will always be fans like you and I who have to bet on the longshot to win.
Last thoughts — I think an important part to the “why aren’t the Pirates being told to spend more” equation is to remember that this organization has a debt load of over $100M which grew in 2009. I questioned that figure years ago as fictional accounting because I felt it was primarily funds they would have to reimburse the state for the building of PNC and accrued interest from two loans they took on, neither of which they would have to repay unless the franchise is relocated before 2030.
Ironically, the first $20M URA loan made in 1985, and the $11.5M subsequent loan handed to the organization when McClatchy begged the city to renegotiate the terms of the first note, were both taxpayer subsidies which are being slowly written off by the city for years now. See this post for more coverage on the subject. I assume the Pirates would have to write those off their debt load too but yet they get seemingly replaced by Nutting limited partner and McClatchy buyout stock purchases made the last few years along with a few other capital expenditures.
In other words, if the owners want to play hardball and come after the Nuttings for perceived creative accounting, then all they are doing is opening a can of worms because every club is probably doing the same thing. That will never happen. The books say the Pirates have $100M+ in debt and every owner will tell you that they want one of their own to have the ability to pay down that debt with the spread the wealth formula they have in place.
So put any “Nutting gets hammered by the union” fantasies aside because they are unrealistic at this point. If you want to blame someone for that, you can blame the Nuttings for refusing to infuse deep pocket partners or refusing to sell because neither has happened despite valid attempts.
Will the new CBA negotiations offer Pirates fans any hope? I’m certainly not counting on any.
–
“For us to compete in the market size we’re in, we have to do some things like this from time to time — a bold move.” — [Reds GM Walt] Jocketty on the Chapman signing
That quote is from Phil Rogers’ Sunday column in the Chicago Tribune. It was a brilliant risk in my book, one we should have taken, especially considering the deferred money payout. Unfortunately, another smaller market organization in the same division did.
–
We ended Brian Bixler’s misery today by tossing him over to Neal Huntington’s ex-boss so we could clear roster space. That’s not the trade I heard about so you might see another deal here shortly outside the rumor below.
One thing I need to tell you is that Neal Huntington has taken extreme measures to quiet circuit gossip about his moves. And I do mean extreme. Bluntly put, he has made it well-known he won’t tolerate leaks anymore and he’s gone to great lengths to surround himself with old school men who don’t talk about their organization to even their best friends. Period, end of story.
However, he still has some holes in his armour plus he can’t control what happens after he talks to other clubs, so things leak out. But the waterfall of rumors all media around this club enjoyed the last five-plus years is quickly drying up, so when a rumor comes our way we’ll have to be a bit more careful not to expose our source.
Now for a juicy rumor.. is Doumit close to being dealt? I ‘tink so and I also ‘tink we’re close to signing another catcher. Now let’s see if it gets done.
By Jake, on December 9, 2009, at 11:19 pm |
A couple of days ago one reader commented how well the Brewers and Twins were doing on low payrolls. Another reader stated he felt we should follow the A’s model while rebuilding with an emphasis on the draft and player development. Both were nice ideas until you stop and look at why those clubs have recently been succesful.
Take the draft, for instance:
For the record, compensatory picks come from losing quality players, Elias ranked ”A” or “B” status acquired from the draft or in trades, to free agency.
When one organization has more than twice the number of first round picks (including the supplemental round) than another organization has over a significant period of time, I think it’s fair to assume they should have twice the impact depth (assets) in their organization.
Now look at the chart above.. the A’s have had 25 first round picks in the last eleven years, the Twins 20, the Brewers 15. Now think about that a second – over the last eleven years, the A’s have had the equivalent of 1.2 additional picks per year before the Pirates even made their second board selection; the Twins 0.7; the Brewers 0.3.
Obviously each one of those organizations has a reinvestment strategy which is working. The Rays haven’t been around long enough to evaluate their reinvestment strategy yet but look at their average draft position in the first round over those eleven years – 5th! Wow. The A’s and Twins have higher overall pick numbers because of the higher number of supplemental picks weighing them down.
When you consider that the best pool of players to enter Major League Baseball comes primarily from the first year draft, and you realize that the cream of the crop typically goes in the first round or so, it’s pretty obvious what the resulting impact from the A’s strategy might be – impact players playing for their first six years then lost to free agency and replaced by another impact player plus another first round pick, and then the cycle begins anew. If a hole develops in the system since they always take best available on the board, they make a trade to get a player under contract short-term with high enough value so when they lose him, they also get the extra draft pick.
It’s brilliant, and it’s being done by quite a few of the smaller market clubs in one form or another.
Now we keep hearing how the Pirates should follow the A’s and Twins models and that sounds great in theory, but in reality we won’t be in that position for another decade or so because of the lack of “A” players on our roster that we might lose to free agency. Plus, we’ve already seen our ownership group refusing to spend for quality free agents to help jump-start that cycle.
But I think it is important to note that we were in such a position to start the cycle having had the ’best outfield’ in the game in 2007 with at least Bay, if not also with Nady and McLouth. But instead of ownership investing by taking on the financial commitment to Bay and then losing him, we saw him traded off for players who aren’t likely to ever qualify for an “A” rating (Morris being the longshot possible exception). The same was true of Marte, Grabow, and a few others under this new regime.
That is just one reason why some of the old timers around the Pirates are upset at current ownership – they had a chance to invest in the long-term product and they failed to do so. Their financial losses having kept players like Bay would have eventually been made up in gate proceeds during the last couple of years, two additional years of control with Andrew McCutchen, and the additional first round player picked in 2010 when Bay walked. All of those would have easily recaptured the Nuttings expense to Bay, not to mention the additional return from having had better results in the win/loss column.
Whether you agree with the Pirates strategy the last two years or not, we are watching Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington attempting to position this franchise to build a cycle which will allow them to keep their young players for the full six years and then be lost to free agency or traded for higher impact youth. Right now Huntington is attempting to figure out if Paul Maholm will take his game to the next level over the next two years in order to qualify as no less than a “B” rated player, or if Capps will remain there, or if Doumit ever makes it, as examples.
That being said, it sounds as if the Pirates strategy remains focused on continual salary dumping and not keeping their 3-6 players through contract. Instead, they are trading them for what many categorize as questionable assets.
At some point there has to be reinvestment and today’s post shows you briefly just one of those ways. Until the Nuttings take that first step, we’re destined to remain a losing organization because other organizations have either implemented reinvestment strategies that are in a continuum cycle, or they have a ton of cash to blow.
We obviously don’t have either.
But what we have gained are ownership bottom-line aiding ‘player control years’ instead.
That’s the type of mentality which begets poor culture and/or challenges to the organization within the organization’s ranks. See: Ian Snell, Perry Hill, and Rich Donnelly as three recent examples. Other examples of players who were on track to possibly help us begin a reinvestment cycle but fell off the cultural cliff before the Pirates might have a chance to recapture include Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez, which I believe necessitated their being traded.
We’re heading into the third year with this regime and we’re still not witnessing any investment outside of a couple capital improvements, and even the extent of some of those like the Latin academy were questionable based on what was available, some suggest. The high-risk high school arms we’ve taken in the draft are just about as worthless because of the attrition rate, although they might have a better chance of helping us than a brand spankin’ new academy that we refuse to spend money to place impact talent in.
Are we really making sound decisions? Are we really heading in the right direction? Or, is it possible we simply have new blinders on because of so many additions from the trades?
–
Bobby Crosby signed. Well, there you go.. see above. We had Crosby in the system with Bixler, albeit I agree Crosby has significantly more upside with the glove.
Well, if he’s healthy and can play, that is.
Yawn.
Who would have guessed that we would be opening the 2010 season with Andy LaRoche as – perhaps – the best infield defender? My-oh-my we have major problems.
–
Dejan at the Post-Gazette interviewed John Russell Wednesday and this exchange made the hair on the back of my neck stand up:
On placing on an expectation of winning on such an inexperienced roster:
“I think they’re going to have to handle it. It’s time. There’s always going to be teaching going on with our staff, but it’s time. I think they got a taste of the majors, and now is the time to start gelling that atmosphere into winning.” — emphasis by Bucco Blog
Yup.. when there is no other choice, I guess they will have to handle it.
–
There was a blurb I read somewhere about the Pirates thinking they may keep Doumit through next year hoping his value increases. Ok, I can understand that considering he’s averaged about +2 WAR the last three years while playing 50% of the time so a net yearly value of +1 to +1.5 WAR certainly seems like it could be beat.
But let me answer all that by saying this: I think the probability of Doumit being dealt this winter is significantly higher than the probability of Doumit exceeding the +1.5 WAR value as a member of the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates.
Git my drift?
–
Call[s] for Andy LaRoche? Yeppers, seems Mr. LaRoche has at least one team who inquired for his services, although I hear Huntington basically said he isn’t available right now. How about dem apples Mr. Hill?
–
Did you know that 5% of every ticket sold (since 2001) goes into a ballpark maintenance and improvement fund for the Pirates to use to offset those expenses? Let’s see, 15M tickets sold at an average cost of $20 the last nine years would mean somewhere around $15M has been put in that kitty.
|
Subscribe to e-mail updates
|
