By Jake, on January 19, 2010, at 9:15 pm | 42 comments
An ex-NL scout handed me his projection today for Andrew McCutchen in 2010: .285/.360/.465 .. 35 stolen bases, 110 runs scored, and 20 home runs – all from the #1 hole. I thought it interesting that he thought 2011 would be the earliest Huntington would consider moving him down the order.
Wow – so much for the sophomore year jinx, huh?
Let me tell you if McCutchen busts out with production like that, some of those optimist comments I’ve seen like “this team might surprise you next year” will be spot-on if our pitching holds together.
A couple of more observations from him –
– he likes Jones bat speed and ability to adjust and thinks he’ll maintain solid numbers in 2010. He agreed with me that Jones seemed to be vulnerable to getting busted in belt-high and above and said he’ll have to come out of spring training having to handle that pitch or he could flounder. If he does handle it, 30 home runs are not out of the question he said. Amazing.
– like me, he likes Clement but doesn’t think he’ll respond with the bat until late season, if at all in 2010. He suggested that if Clement gets 550 AB in 2010, he’ll be an offensive force to recon with in 2011 likely as the Pirates everyday catcher (that surprised me) – “not enough power, not enough defense, to stay at first.” He thinks Huntington will hold off dealing Doumit until July as he’ll be more valuable to a contender then since questions about his wrist injury linger. I’m still hearing Doumit’s name as a potential trade, however;
– said Maholm could blossom to a #2 type starter (another shocker) and several teams are high on him. I asked when he thought Huntington would deal him and he responded that he thought Huntington would hold him to the end of his contract unless handed a must-trade opportunity;
– unlike me, he likes Ohlendorf as a #3/#4 starter and thinks Kerrigan is the right guy to help him adjust to the league. If he isn’t able to, he thinks May and on could be rough for Ohlendorf;
– not high on Morton, not high on Cedeno, likes Hart over McCutchen to start the year in the rotation, questions if Aki is truly healthy, said Duke was a solid MLB #4 starter, and not high on Moss.
His “wild guess” is 75 wins.
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Brandon Jones, huh? He’s a Braves draft-and-follow failure the scouts were always mixed on. Some thought his defense would be his saving grace, others thought his bat would come around. Now at 26, he’s a marginal prospect with a tick of upside and good makeup put on the wire with an option, so Huntington grabbed him. Obviously he’ll be assigned to 3A because he’s a notoriously slow starter and by the end of the year he’ll put up incredible numbers making Huntington’s 3A club — and Huntington – look good. If Jones ever finds more plate discipline and learns how to run better outfield routes, he might be a candidate for a 4th OF role in 2011, but don’t count on it.
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A charge of family abuse was dropped against Tyler Yates who was arrested and later bonded out. A quick review of the statute linked above suggests that Yates’ victim must have had some obvious injury for him to be arrested in the first place, although that’s speculation on my part. Since I don’t know what happened, I won’t guesstimate on Yates’ makeup and why Huntington didn’t know better before dealing for him.
Congratulations are in order to the Garden Island newspaper for publishing the facts. Also, kudos are in order to Mary Junck of, get this, Ogden, Iowa, the CEO of Lee Enterprises who owns the Garden Island newspaper, for her belief in the public’s right to know. I can only assume the Pirates and/or Ogden Newspapers attempted to squash any release of the Yates arrest which tended to devalue one of Nutting’s commodities, but I don’t know that for sure.
For the record, I never liked the Yates trade. If Todd Redmond was still around, he would most likely be our (raw) 5th starter in 2010.
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I had heard Neil Walker was out the door but tonight I’m hearing that there may be more than one club in on him now (personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up in San Diego). We’ll see since it will probably happen in the next 24 – 48 hours if it gets done.
By Jake, on January 18, 2010, at 11:33 pm | 26 comments
One down, three or four to go. Michael Weiner, in his first venture as head of the players union, successfully wrestled the Florida Marlins to baseball’s financial mat and is prepared to take on similarly recalcitrant revenue-sharing rogues. …
Bob Nutting, the Pirates’ managing partner, has been especially criticized by other owners for not spending the money to improve his team, which is on a record 17-year streak of losing seasons. …
“The Pirates, Marlins and Rays are spending nothing on payroll and showing operating profits of $20, $25 million, which goes into the owners’ pockets,” one executive said. …
The combined pressure exerted by Henry, other owners and the union was too much for the commissioner’s office to ignore. When Selig and Manfred don’t let a dispute get to a grievance, a management person said, “you know it’s serious. They made the Marlins accept it.”
Now the Pirates are on deck. There’s no more deserving team to bat next.
That came from an article posted today by Hall of Fame writer Murray Chass. Obviously Chass believes, as we found out yesterday Bill Madden believes, that the Pirates are a future target by some owners and the union.
Indeed.
Unfortunately after digging deep into MLB’s ownership circles Sunday, I came away with the feeling Bob and Ogden Nutting are pretty safe. That’s not to say there isn’t trouble in paradise surrounding the Nutting empire, just that the Pirate Nation isn’t likely to see them cornered by other owners between now and the new CBA talks. If ever.
You can probably thank the Nuttings impeccable strategy timing the transition of power from McClatchy for that.
Remember how McClatchy went public in 2006 stating he wanted Nutting more involved in the organization but Nutting only took baby steps that year, then took the entire 2007 season to “evaluate” his system before implementing change? That one and one-half year stall/delay seems to have perfectly positioned the Nuttings outside the crosshairs of the owners and union.
The Commissioner’s office implemented a yearly recommended minimum payroll threshold several years ago which several teams have failed to meet (the Pirates are one of the clubs that have never met it, I’m told). Not meeting that minimum has drawn the ire of the player’s union especially since quality players have either been forced out of work or had to settle for significant reductions in pay the last couple of years because of the reduced market and demand.
On one hand we have the Commissioner with a recommended salary floor the Pirates didn’t meet, on the other we have the union screaming for more demand for their product, and on the side sit a few well-heeled owners who are fit to be tied that a few owners seem to be taking their ‘charity’ for a Sunday ride and thereby devaluing the MLB brand and their financial position along the way.
Simply put, its greed vs greed vs greed where the ultimate loser will always be fans like you and I who have to bet on the longshot to win.
Last thoughts — I think an important part to the “why aren’t the Pirates being told to spend more” equation is to remember that this organization has a debt load of over $100M which grew in 2009. I questioned that figure years ago as fictional accounting because I felt it was primarily funds they would have to reimburse the state for the building of PNC and accrued interest from two loans they took on, neither of which they would have to repay unless the franchise is relocated before 2030.
Ironically, the first $20M URA loan made in 1985, and the $11.5M subsequent loan handed to the organization when McClatchy begged the city to renegotiate the terms of the first note, were both taxpayer subsidies which are being slowly written off by the city for years now. See this post for more coverage on the subject. I assume the Pirates would have to write those off their debt load too but yet they get seemingly replaced by Nutting limited partner and McClatchy buyout stock purchases made the last few years along with a few other capital expenditures.
In other words, if the owners want to play hardball and come after the Nuttings for perceived creative accounting, then all they are doing is opening a can of worms because every club is probably doing the same thing. That will never happen. The books say the Pirates have $100M+ in debt and every owner will tell you that they want one of their own to have the ability to pay down that debt with the spread the wealth formula they have in place.
So put any “Nutting gets hammered by the union” fantasies aside because they are unrealistic at this point. If you want to blame someone for that, you can blame the Nuttings for refusing to infuse deep pocket partners or refusing to sell because neither has happened despite valid attempts.
Will the new CBA negotiations offer Pirates fans any hope? I’m certainly not counting on any.
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“For us to compete in the market size we’re in, we have to do some things like this from time to time — a bold move.” — [Reds GM Walt] Jocketty on the Chapman signing
That quote is from Phil Rogers’ Sunday column in the Chicago Tribune. It was a brilliant risk in my book, one we should have taken, especially considering the deferred money payout. Unfortunately, another smaller market organization in the same division did.
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We ended Brian Bixler’s misery today by tossing him over to Neal Huntington’s ex-boss so we could clear roster space. That’s not the trade I heard about so you might see another deal here shortly outside the rumor below.
One thing I need to tell you is that Neal Huntington has taken extreme measures to quiet circuit gossip about his moves. And I do mean extreme. Bluntly put, he has made it well-known he won’t tolerate leaks anymore and he’s gone to great lengths to surround himself with old school men who don’t talk about their organization to even their best friends. Period, end of story.
However, he still has some holes in his armour plus he can’t control what happens after he talks to other clubs, so things leak out. But the waterfall of rumors all media around this club enjoyed the last five-plus years is quickly drying up, so when a rumor comes our way we’ll have to be a bit more careful not to expose our source.
Now for a juicy rumor.. is Doumit close to being dealt? I ‘tink so and I also ‘tink we’re close to signing another catcher. Now let’s see if it gets done.
By Jake, on December 9, 2009, at 11:19 pm | 37 comments
A couple of days ago one reader commented how well the Brewers and Twins were doing on low payrolls. Another reader stated he felt we should follow the A’s model while rebuilding with an emphasis on the draft and player development. Both were nice ideas until you stop and look at why those clubs have recently been succesful.
Take the draft, for instance:
For the record, compensatory picks come from losing quality players, Elias ranked ”A” or “B” status acquired from the draft or in trades, to free agency.
When one organization has more than twice the number of first round picks (including the supplemental round) than another organization has over a significant period of time, I think it’s fair to assume they should have twice the impact depth (assets) in their organization.
Now look at the chart above.. the A’s have had 25 first round picks in the last eleven years, the Twins 20, the Brewers 15. Now think about that a second – over the last eleven years, the A’s have had the equivalent of 1.2 additional picks per yearbefore the Pirates even made their second board selection; the Twins 0.7; the Brewers 0.3.
Obviously each one of those organizations has a reinvestment strategy which is working. The Rays haven’t been around long enough to evaluate their reinvestment strategy yet but look at their average draft position in the first round over those eleven years – 5th! Wow. The A’s and Twins have higher overall pick numbers because of the higher number of supplemental picks weighing them down.
When you consider that the best pool of players to enter Major League Baseball comes primarily from the first year draft, and you realize that the cream of the crop typically goes in the first round or so, it’s pretty obvious what the resulting impact from the A’s strategy might be – impact players playing for their first six years then lost to free agency and replaced by another impact player plus another first round pick, and then the cycle begins anew. If a hole develops in the system since they always take best available on the board, they make a trade to get a player under contract short-term with high enough value so when they lose him, they also get the extra draft pick.
It’s brilliant, and it’s being done by quite a few of the smaller market clubs in one form or another.
Now we keep hearing how the Pirates should follow the A’s and Twins models and that sounds great in theory, but in reality we won’t be in that position for another decade or so because of the lack of “A” players on our roster that we might lose to free agency. Plus, we’ve already seen our ownership group refusing to spend for quality free agents to help jump-start that cycle.
But I think it is important to note that we were in such a position to start the cycle having had the ’best outfield’ in the game in 2007 with at least Bay, if not also with Nady and McLouth. But instead of ownership investing by taking on the financial commitment to Bay and then losing him, we saw him traded off for players who aren’t likely to ever qualify for an “A” rating (Morris being the longshot possible exception). The same was true of Marte, Grabow, and a few others under this new regime.
That is just one reason why some of the old timers around the Pirates are upset at current ownership – they had a chance to invest in the long-term product and they failed to do so. Their financial losses having kept players like Bay would have eventually been made up in gate proceeds during the last couple of years, two additional years of control with Andrew McCutchen, and the additional first round player picked in 2010 when Bay walked. All of those would have easily recaptured the Nuttings expense to Bay, not to mention the additional return from having had better results in the win/loss column.
Whether you agree with the Pirates strategy the last two years or not, we are watching Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington attempting to position this franchise to build a cycle which will allow them to keep their young players for the full six years and then be lost to free agency or traded for higher impact youth. Right now Huntington is attempting to figure out if Paul Maholm will take his game to the next level over the next two years in order to qualify as no less than a “B” rated player, or if Capps will remain there, or if Doumit ever makes it, as examples.
That being said, it sounds as if the Pirates strategy remains focused on continual salary dumping and not keeping their 3-6 players through contract. Instead, they are trading them for what many categorize as questionable assets.
At some point there has to be reinvestment and today’s post shows you briefly just one of those ways. Until the Nuttings take that first step, we’re destined to remain a losing organization because other organizations have either implemented reinvestment strategies that are in a continuum cycle, or they have a ton of cash to blow.
We obviously don’t have either.
But what we have gained are ownership bottom-line aiding ‘player control years’ instead.
That’s the type of mentality which begets poor culture and/or challenges to the organization within the organization’s ranks. See: Ian Snell, Perry Hill, and Rich Donnelly as three recent examples. Other examples of players who were on track to possibly help us begin a reinvestment cycle but fell off the cultural cliff before the Pirates might have a chance to recapture include Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez, which I believe necessitated their being traded.
We’re heading into the third year with this regime and we’re still not witnessing any investment outside of a couple capital improvements, and even the extent of some of those like the Latin academy were questionable based on what was available, some suggest. The high-risk high school arms we’ve taken in the draft are just about as worthless because of the attrition rate, although they might have a better chance of helping us than a brand spankin’ new academy that we refuse to spend money to place impact talent in.
Are we really making sound decisions? Are we really heading in the right direction? Or, is it possible we simply have new blinders on because of so many additions from the trades?
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Bobby Crosby signed. Well, there you go.. see above. We had Crosby in the system with Bixler, albeit I agree Crosby has significantly more upside with the glove.
Well, if he’s healthy and can play, that is.
Yawn.
Who would have guessed that we would be opening the 2010 season with Andy LaRoche as – perhaps – the best infield defender? My-oh-my we have major problems.
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Dejan at the Post-Gazette interviewed John Russell Wednesday and this exchange made the hair on the back of my neck stand up:
On placing on an expectation of winning on such an inexperienced roster:
“I think they’re going to have to handle it. It’s time. There’s always going to be teaching going on with our staff, but it’s time. I think they got a taste of the majors, and now is the time to start gelling that atmosphere into winning.” — emphasis by Bucco Blog
Yup.. when there is no other choice, I guess they will have to handle it.
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There was a blurb I read somewhere about the Pirates thinking they may keep Doumit through next year hoping his value increases. Ok, I can understand that considering he’s averaged about +2 WAR the last three years while playing 50% of the time so a net yearly value of +1 to +1.5 WAR certainly seems like it could be beat.
But let me answer all that by saying this: I think the probability of Doumit being dealt this winter is significantly higher than the probability of Doumit exceeding the +1.5 WAR value as a member of the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates.
Git my drift?
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Call[s] for Andy LaRoche? Yeppers, seems Mr. LaRoche has at least one team who inquired for his services, although I hear Huntington basically said he isn’t available right now. How about dem apples Mr. Hill?
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Did you know that 5% of every ticket sold (since 2001) goes into a ballpark maintenance and improvement fund for the Pirates to use to offset those expenses? Let’s see, 15M tickets sold at an average cost of $20 the last nine years would mean somewhere around $15M has been put in that kitty.
By Jake, on December 3, 2009, at 10:22 pm | 15 comments
Bobby Crosby? OMG. Why not just let Bixler play and keep the money since his glove is about equal?
Say this with me: Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Cabrera. I’m guessing it would take $11M/2 to get the deal done and he’d be a solid #2 hitter behind McCutchen until one of our kids are ready to come up. I personally don’t buy his off-year with the glove – I think he’s still a +1 win defender and I think he’d kill NLCD pitching. Not only that but he’d sell tickets.
Ok, it won’t happen and we’ll end up with garbage backing up garbage at short this year.. I know, I know.
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We’re in on Nady? Huh?????????? That’s one of the ridiculous rumors. That writer had a brain fart or is trying to help Nady catch a ride somewhere else.
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Ron Villone? Now this one I believe. Nothing like adding 100% pure negative value to the pen to try and win baseball games, I always say.
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Rene Gayo’s replacement hired in Tyrone Brooks? Don’t be surprised.
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Baseball America’s John Manuel ranked the 30 farm systems and placed the Bucs in the 6th – 15th range which is a significant departure from where Jim Callis ranked us (20th or so) just a week ago. Credit goes to Callis who told me he hadn’t actually ranked them yet but he had been saying for a month or two he had the Cubs as middle of the pack in the game and the best in the NLCD. Now Manuel sees them 16th – 25th. Note how Manuel seems to put Sanchez in the same class as Alvarez:
Impressive depth behind top prospects Pedro Alvarez, Tony Sanchez.
Anybody else see the cows flying Manuel seems to see?
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Mike Basso brought in as a pro scout. I wonder who left? Brasso is better known as the “Spokane Handyman” from his days in short season ball. I don’t know much about him but I’ll ask around.
Toshi Nagahara brought in to be Aki’s translator. Well, we knew somebody had to be hired.
Promoted Kevan Graves to assistant director of baseball operations. That’s quite a promotion for Kevan – good for him.
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Maury Brown at the Biz of Baseball website questions the right of the Pirates to pay down debt with revenue sharing money and then Rob Neyer came right back and theorized that for a team like the Pirates to spend an extra $10M per year to add 5 wins isn’t worth the bother.
Both these parties miss the boat, imo.
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I hope to have my main article finished tonight and up before morning. If not, I’ll post it sometime tomorrow which might be better because I have several phone calls to make to finish the research. (Update 12:04 AM Friday – I’m rushing this article and want to wait a bit so I’m able to get more input from additional sources. Look for it Sunday night or Monday morning.)
What’s the difference between Dobrow’s annual ‘I hate the Bucs’ hammering, the 2008 award, and the one we just received this year?
Not much, you say? Think again.
Not only has Tom Jones been writing sports longer than the twenty-two years John Perrotto has covered the Pirates, that piece he just wrote is in one of the nation’s better newspapers which also happens to be in one of the other MLB markets.
Ouch.
Now consider some of his words:
Whenever they do draft and develop a star, they end up trading him. They’ve become almost a farm system for the big-market teams such as the Yankees and Red Sox. They’ve gone 17 seasons without a winning record, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them go at least another 17. (emphasis supplied by Bucco Blog)
Thank you Mr. Jones – that’s good stuff. He’s right .. it wouldn’t be surprising considering the way we’re headed.
After the 2007 season the Pittsburgh Pirates had the 26th best farm system in baseball, according to Baseball America. Now after two years of intense salary dumping, trades, and other giveaways under the new regime, Jim Callis told me where we are ranked:
I really haven’t tried to break the organizations down vs. each other, but 20th or so is probably fair. They’ve added some depth but lost McCutchen. Really hard to say — I haven’t been impressed with many of the NL systems I’ve edited so far.
The only player who has graduated to a full-time job from our 2007 system is Andrew McCutchen and he was replaced in the system by Pedro Alvarez after the 2008 draft. In other words, after Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly gutted more than half of our 25-man roster they inherited by trading 14 players for 26 and netting 131 years of control, and after spending the most money in the game in the first year draft the last two years mostly on risky high school arms and Alvarez, we’ve barely moved up the stocked talent ladder.
Barely moved.
I hear you starting to form an argument – Baseball America ranks organizations by established impact talent instead of trying to decipher potential upside of, say, high school pitchers just taken in the last draft who may or may not ever amount to anything. That’s fair – I think BA does a good job of intermixing the two myself, but let’s take your argument one step further.
I pressed Callis where the Pirates would rank today if they had taken Maztek, Wheeler, or Green over Sanchez last year, signed Scheppers in 2008, and inked Sano this year:
Maybe the top ten.
And that is the crux of my argument here – we can’t afford to be making these kind of mistakes. Argue all you want that Scheppers wasn’t healthy or was only throwing 80% in his bullpen in front of Huntington, argue all you want about Rob Plummer’s tough policy on Sano, Rene Gayo’s flagrant aggressiveness with the family, or whether or not we knew he was 16 or 21, and argue all you want about the merits of filling a position of need instead of taking the best available in the first year draft. Those might be valid points.
My point is that we didn’t get take the right risks – we failed to give Plummer upfront what Sano wanted, we spent $4 million on Ramon Vazquez instead of using Bixler and taking a $1.5 million risk on Scheppers, and I don’t even have to tell you how ludicrous it was to take Sanchez over impact players in last year’s draft simply to fill an organizational hole. Failing to take those risks has left us just as deep in the hole as we were two and one-half years ago, although you could also argue the Nuttings can now field cheaper rosters for several seasons with all the years of control we gained.
We’re not getting the job done.
Where we failed – instead of confronting the fan base and telling them that there would be a six-year rebuilding stage starting in late 2007 regardless of the fallout, we focused on supplementing our short-term major league roster in our acquisitions instead of acquiring significantly higher rated talent in the lower levels of the organization aiding the long-term plan.
We failed to take the right risks.
That was a colossal error which the results from are just starting to be seen, like in BA”s organizational rankings. And while BA’s work isn’t proof-positive of anything, it’s the best information the fans have available. Ask Frank Coonelly – he cites them to us as well. And down the road it will be seen in mediocre win rates like we saw across our system last year because every other club in our division has something we don’t have – a better stocked farm system or money to burn.
We can’t continue these misses or what Tom Jones said above will happen – we’ll still be here 17 years from now wondering where it all went wrong.
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I am stunned that some of the Pittsburgh Pirates fan base participated in a chat at the Post-Gazette partially designed to give the newspaper a fleeting edge on what to put behind a pay wall to force the fans to pay for.
Why would anyone provide the means for another person to take money out of their pocket? D’uh. Maybe I’m just starting to understand the real reason the Pirates sold 1.6 million tickets last year.
I understand the industry is dying but instead of adapting they are trying to force change. What did I say last night happens when change is forced? That’s right, it inevitably fails. Counting on the remaining Pittsburgh Pirates fan base to help a newspaper survive is about as shaky a plan as it comes because you know who is going to beat them to the punch?
Speaking of fluff that needs to go behind a pay wall so we don’t have to view it any more, what the hell was Smizik thinking in this piece? Maybe he should spend some of his time digging in Federal Street’s dumpsters instead since he’d probably get more information from that rat hole than he will from the Nuttings? Yeah baby, we need a pay wall up in Pittsburgh alright.
If it ‘aint fit to print, it ‘aint fit to read.
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Dejan reports we’re looking to add another Rule 5 pick.
Oh, happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So, Let’s sing a song of cheer again
Happy times
Happy nights
Happy days
Are here again!
PROFESSIONAL PITCHING LESSONS: Ex-Major League Baseball player with the Pittsburgh Pirates residing in Charleston [SC] available for pitching lessons. Contact Brian Rogers, ***-***-****.
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One happy dude. He loves the attention, obviously. But good for him, he’s earned the right to have it.
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Like the NEWS section above? Wish it had different links, more links, different stuff? It’s simply an RSS aggregator and many of the links are quiet right now like with our affiliates. But give me your ideas for a one-stop Pirates news hole.
How about the new comment rating system? I think it’s lame myself but several folks have asked for it and I’m willing to try it out. Let me know what you think.
By Jake, on November 28, 2009, at 10:29 pm | 15 comments
At Thanksgiving dinner I was laughed at for being a Pirates fan by dozens of family members who mostly belong to the Atlanta Braves family. After I explained why I remain a die-hard fan, one philosophical member of the family asked me: what right do I have to expect change? I immediately went off on the Jason Stark/Bill Madden angle that because ownership was doing better than the fans were, I indeed had such a right.
Then it hit me what he meant — I had no such right.
That revelation finally explained to me the continuing paradox why hardly anybody seemed to care whether the Pittsburgh Pirates endured seventeen consecutive losing seasons or thirty-seven, whether the Nutting’s pocket $14 million each year or $40 million, or whether the Pirates drew two million through the gate or two hundred. Instead, they laugh at us for continuing to attach ourselves to an inferior product.
And they are right.. as fans we can’t force change, we can only become the change.
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We’re being linked to lots of third-tier names right now in the rumor mill and I don’t expect us to sign any of them. Not only do they degrade an already degraded roster, guys like Ankiel just take at bats away from prospects who at least have more upside left in their career. Now I’m not saying we won’t sign any of these guys because Huntington has shown us he’ll do the unexpected, but there isn’t a name we’re linked to right now that makes any sense at all.
And no, I don’t think we’re in on Mike Gonzalez albeit he’s the one ‘cheaper/better’ guys ($14M/3??) we badly need the services of. I mean, we were leading after seven innings in 61 games last year and blew a NL high 10 of them (6 at PNC!!). Worth it all day long if we don’t have to give up our second round pick to boot.
Forget about the rest of the names popping up – we’re not going to add a downhill trending aging veteran to our roster to take at bats from Moss who has more potential upside. Stay focused – shortstop is priority one, then a defensive catcher, and lastly bullpen help are our most pressing needs.
With the winter meetings upon us expect to hear Doumit’s name all over the place because he’s already out there once again.
Matt McSwain just got back from his honeymoon. Congrats Matt!
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How odd, Selig announced that he’s retiring after the 2012 season and one insider I spoke to said he didn’t expect to see Frank Coonelly’s name even whispered by the owners. “Not a prayer.”
No wonder Coonelly took over the role of Mother Nutting.
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Are you sick and tired of being spammed with pop under ads every time you go to any of the MLB.com or minorleagebaseball.com’s websites? If you are, then hop over to Casale Media and OptMD and opt out at both to stop the ads from appearing. Hilariously they feed you a warning that says:
WARNING: by choosing to opt out you are taking an active position not to support the publishers whose websites you visit and whose content you consume free of charge. In doing so you threaten the long term viability of their operations.
Screw them.
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Speaking of money-making schemes, Barrons reports that more pay walls are going up this time around some of MediaNews Group’s content and they specifically mention York, PA.
Along the same lines, Dejan over at the Post-Gazette wants to know what it will take for you to pay for Pirates-related content over there.
Have you had a chance to check out the PG+ pay site yet? If so, what are ideas for what we can do Pirates-related there? And, if there were something there, what would it take to get you to sign up? (At the moment, the Pirates are the only major beat not covered at PG+.)
And a rumor on the street has KDKA considering hiring Perrotto to write behind a pay wall over there.
Screw all that.
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Along the same lines, if you have ever made a reservation through Orbitz then you were offered the opportunity to enter your e-mail address right before completing the transaction. If you entered it, then the credit card you used to make the purchase at Orbitz may have been used to bill you $9 to $12 per month every month until you finally caught it and yelled like hell at your bank. Cnet has a nice write-up on the scam via the Feds - it’s something you should read because quite a few major retailers are involved in the practice as you can see from the list below.
By Jake, on November 5, 2009, at 11:12 pm | 46 comments
After reading an immense amount of commentary around the web on the Akinori Iwamura trade, one article in particular written by Michael Street stuck out to earn my “You Are Absolutely Clueless” award. Oddly, the article was found at a site that used to be one of the best baseball reads on the net until it lost a few contributors and was then picked up by a national Internet publication who is trying to get it turned back around.
In that article the writer wrote his perceived reasons for the trade and I started to wince with this thought of his:
Some of their pieces are already in place for 2009: Andrew McCutchen, Nyjer Morgan, and Ryan Doumit (when healthy) are all solid offensive producers, while Garrett Jones, Delwyn Young and even Andy LaRoche remain intriguing prospects. Uberprospect Pedro Alvarez should arrive in 2010 or 2o11, at which point Aki could still be around.
Seriously folks, I wanted to just walk away from the article at that point but I kept reading out of past respect of the publication.
I’d argue that the Pirates don’t consider Iwamura as someone that will help them right away, but down the road, as they bring in new arms.In the short term, of course, they could swap him at the deadline to a contender and pick up a few more pitching prospects, of course, but that’s not what I mean.
Pittsburgh—particularly after the debacle with Alvarez (whom they bypassed Matt Wieters for, figuring they couldn’t afford the top-rated catcher)—is realizing they can’t afford to pursue domestic free agents.
The Pirates are, instead, looking east for arms. Far East.
I punished myself and kept reading..
But if I were in Japan and feeling lonely and isolated, I’d feel much happier if I made a friend with a fellow expatriate from Holland, Finland or Italy and not quibble that they’re from a different Western country. Aki would act as just such a friend.
Pittsburgh is also sending a message to its fans, that it’s trying unconventional ways to build a contending team. Though Iwamura is just an above-average offensive second-baseman, and really still learning the position, he’s a good clubhouse guy and a professional with twelve seasons under his belt. He’s been to a World Series in 2008, won a Japan Series in 2001, and been on both of Team Japan’s WBC-winning starting lineups—he knows how to win.
And so Iwamura’s signing may be a bit of a puzzle from a purely offensive standpoint. But I like how Pittsburgh is bringing on a proven winner and a strong clubhouse presence, as well as telling younger Eastern players that they should consider Pittsburgh as a destination.
There is so much wrong with that article I can’t begin to tell you how disappointed I was to read it at Baseball Daily Digest. But what really infuriated me was, here it is was almost two days after publication and neither the source, the writer of the article, nor Baseball Prospectus, which Baseball Daily Digest is a subsidiary of, has made any corrections.
I’m both stunned and disappointed.
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From the Seattle Times: “Tim Lincecum, star pitcher for the San Francisco Giants, is facing charges of misdemeanor possession of marijuana and drug paraphernalia use after being stopped for speeding on Interstate 5 last week.”
Well, no wonder he has such a funky delivery!
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So we’re now looking for arms in the Far East, huh? Obviously some don’t seem to be aware that our front office has been trading away our ‘baseball midgets’ in favor of bringing in Neanderthals the last two years.
And if you watched the World Series I’m guessing you came away with the same thought that we’d be better off opening a scouting office in places like Romania and the Ukraine than to be wasting our time in Taiwan or China.
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I had several e-mails asking me to lay out my opinion on the Akinori Iwamura. I thought I made it clear in the post but I guess I didn’t. I felt it was a waste of financial resources since we essentially paid for 1.25 wins with the money we’re putting out and no less than another win losing Chavez with four to five years of control. That’s conservatively 2.25 wins we paid for and that has to be over what Delwyn Young would have provided. I’m guessing not even Ogden Nutting’s accountant is going to be able to find that.
Honestly, the deal almost feels like an intentional Neal Huntington smack in the face to Perry Hill much like Huntington seemed to do to Tony LaCava and the Blue Jays by raiding their players after he became GM. You know the game .. ’so, you don’t want to be with me, huh? I’ll show you.’ Anyway, we needed to fill a hole and we overpaid to do that. End of story.
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Deal Lord, how did Neal Huntington miss this ‘elite talent’ chance: Jeremy Hermida traded to the Red Sox for a couple of pitching prospects. Wow. Too bad we spent our wad on Iwamura because I sure would have rather had Hermida sitting around for 2010 than Moss. I know, I know.. we’re saving so we can bring back Jack Wilson. OMG
Oh wait.. is it possible. No, can’t be. Or can it? Is it possible Doumit will be dealt to… No. Can’t happen. Or, can it? Maybe we WILL be seeing Hermida patrolling right field after all? Hmm… hold that thought and stay tuned.
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I keep hearing everyone talking about trading for starting pitching, or picking some up in free agent land. I don’t get it. Why? Do you want to move Ohlendorf to the pen? Duke? Morton? Maholm? Not bring up Lincoln next year? What do you do with Veal, Dumatrait (assuming he’s finally healthy), and Vasquez. Ok, I hear you.. I know what I’d do with some of those players too.
I agree the front office has made it pretty clear they feel they have a lot more talent on the roster than anybody else seems to believe so it wouldn’t shock me if they went looking for a starter thinking it would make a difference, but reality says the cost isn’t worth it. But then again, reality said the same thing about the Iwamura deal too. Who knows what these cats will do. Maybe they will go after Jon Garland and see if he can give up more hits than Duke?
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Speaking of starting pitching, did anyone else see the ZIPS projections for the Reds starters in 2010? Sure, ZIPS doesn’t handle pitching too well but still. Let’s hope they don’t add another piece.
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Since we’re talking about a Nutting ‘on the cheap’ team, Raul Chavez would be a target for me and I’d plan on starting him 120 games. Then I’d deal Doumit for as much booty as I could get. See two notes above.
Since Kerrigan let Chavez get away to begin with, I assume we’ll not see a return engagement. So how about spending for Torrealba? Or Mauer? LOL, ok.. I’ll stop. Jaramillo is fine for 40 or so games but we really need a catcher bad.
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The Pirates are looking for a programmer for their new Pirates360 player management and scouting system supporting player evaluation.
What a kick-ass opportunity. I have the four years of enterprise Visual C experience but lack the degree in computer science. MSSQL 2005, huh? Hmm..
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Here’s a nice article on the changing landscape of salary arbitration in baseball at the Sports Law Blog which followed Buster Olney’s nice piece at ESPN (requires an Insider subscription. If you don’t have one, you can sign up here via Bucco Blog’s advertising agreement with ESPN. Disclaimer: I receive a commission.)
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CURVE KIDS’ DAY AT THE LOGAN VALLEY MALL STORE ON SUNDAY
Kids Can Meet Steamer, Diesel Dawg and Participate in Several Activities
ALTOONA, Pa – The Altoona Curve are pleased to cap off the first full week at their new Logan Valley Mall location with Kids’ Day on Sunday, November 8 from 3:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.
Kids’ Day at the Curve Holiday Store (located on the lower level of the mall, next to Buckle) is free and open to the public. It will feature a variety of activities for kids of all ages. The opportunity to meet and spend time with official team mascots Steamer and Diesel Dawg will be offered. Kids can get autographs and have their picture taken with the Curve characters. There will be crafts, coloring, face painting, and the chance to win door prizes. Snacks will also be available.
All kids are urged to take advantage of a 20% merchandise discount on Sunday that will be offered to all families who sign their kids up for the Curve’s popular Kids’ Club program. For just $15, children age 14 and under will receive one free ticket to all 11 Sunday home games, private autograph sessions with Curve players, an invitation to an exclusive Kids’ Club Summer Kick Off Party, a Kids’ Club membership card, a Kids’ Club t-shirt and much more.
Fans can use the opportunity to check out the latest Curve merchandise and secure seats to 2010 Altoona Curve games with season tickets and mini-plan packages available at the same price or lower than 2009 tickets.
”We know Sunday afternoons in the fall are usually to be left open for our favorite football team to the west,” said Altoona Curve General Manager Rob Egan. “But, with the Black and Gold playing Monday night in Denver, we thought this was the perfect time to invite families out to our mall store to enjoy several activities.”
For more information on Curve Kids’ Day at Logan Valley Mall, fans can contact Elsie Zengel, Director of Community Relations at (814) 283-3130.
By Jake, on November 4, 2009, at 12:52 am | 18 comments
I found out about the Bucs getting close on Iwamura on Sunday night while writing my post. I had just finished writing about Perrotto’s tweet when I got the call so the next part of the post I wrote was a cryptic message about keeping LaRoche at third next year. To be quite blunt, neither the source nor I expected this to ever get done because the Rays had a couple of suitors for him but nobody was willing to take on the money AND give up a 25-man player because of his health issues.
Except Huntington, it now appears.
Iwamura has a sweet swing (hey, he’s said to compare to Ronny Paulino!) and good plate discipline and I’ve watched him play nearly every game since the Rays signed him. He was a bit awkward at second after the transition from third, but not so bad he embarrassed himself, then came along nicely. He has soft hands, has a lightning fast release, good range, and the ball typically goes where he throws it. You’ll like him on the diamond, he should hit reasonably well in our yard and division, and you’ll like him as a player because he’s a charmer.
The million dollar question becomes, can he play 130 or more games? I’m not in the camp that believes he will based on his knee and leg problems.
The fans will say we only gave up Chavez – what’s the big deal? In that regard, losing Chavez may not be such a big deal if you can name his replacement (Jake looks at our system and scratches his head wondering who you might come up with without dipping into free agent land.)
But what bothers me is that if you look at the big picture you see that our management team’s short-term plan had a gaping hole and we just horribly overpaid to fill one position, for one year, with what may end up being a part-time player. I mean, neither the Rays, Iwamura, nor Alan Nero his agent, are fools.. 2010 is a rehab year for Iwamura on a club like the Pirates because he becomes a free agent seeking a big payday after the season. Look for him to finish strong.
That does not mean he needs to start the season strong, much less at all. Perhaps I should emphasis that statement?
It’s amazing to me that we are so willing to spend stupid money to add a few runs to our game for one season but we weren’t willing to cough up $500k to add Sano to our stable and weren’t willing to add $400k to Perry Hill’s offer to keep him around for two more years.
I don’t get it and would really like to know if this was a Huntington deal or if Coonelly pushed it down his throat. The only significant benefit Iwamura brings to us over Young is on defense, which ends up being around +14 runs or so (a tick over one win) over 150 games. On offense he adds another +5 runs over 150 games. That’s +19 runs over 150 games or 1.2 runs every 10 games he actually plays. So if we see him 100 games, that’s around 12 runs or about one win, if he plays 150 or more than perhaps we see up to a two win swing.
For almost five million dollars PLUS four-to-five years of control with Chavez.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the Rays passed K-Y jelly with Iwamura to Huntington.
This is a two-thumbs down deal, not because of the players swaped but because of the position Huntington left us in where somebody upstairs on Federal Street felt we had to allocate ridiculous sums of money on a one-year stop-gap, not to mention too many people upstairs seem to be thinking we have more talent around than the rest of the world seems to believe.
Personally, I would have rather spent stupid money to get Sano and keep Hill than to bring in Iwamura. And, yeah sure, I’m glad Nutting is spending some money. It’s just not going where I personally think it should have gone considering the build up in the division and our rebuilding mode.
That being said, I welcome Aki to the club after initially being pursued out of Japan by Huntington and the Indians years ago, wish him a speedy recovery, and hope he’s on the field for 150+ games next year and racks up a Type A type year so we can at least have a chance at Type B compensation when he walks which would at least put a dent in this blow. As for Chavez and the Rays, if they let him rest his arm early in the year, I think they will have a nice innings eater for years to come. He may get hit hard year one figuring things out and working out his fatigue but will settle in nice by year two I believe.
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more thoughts and this edit after I posted this since so many are e-mailing – one scout type person just asked me if it was ‘prudent’ to compare Iwamura’s fielding statistic ratings at second with the Rays versus being with the Pirates. Expect half the value, he suggested, and if you get more be pleasantly surprised. But add some to his offense, he went on to say. Someone else e-mailed anonymously who clearly knows Iwamura’s game (I called him Nero but I’m guessing it wasn’t him) and said Iwamura will be a ‘difference maker’ who adds a lot more than +2 wins to the team. A third person who is a household name said the same thing the first person said – I shouldn’t compare apples to oranges, but didn’t leave me with an impression how Iwamura might do.
Then there is someone who touches the business side of the game who wondered aloud if the Pirates did this deal mainly to appease the other owners since they have come under fire for not spending enough of their revenue sharing directly on improving their on-field product and they received a rather healthy check this year while signficantly cutting payroll. From a business standpoint, he questioned why the Pirates would make such a deal.
Lastly, a person I respect a ton told me he was pleased to see the Pirates be so aggressive and is willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the front office. It’s not a deal he would have made considering how many are going to fall off rosters he said, but he understands why it was intriguing to the Pirates and why they targeted Iwamura. I pressed him for true value and he wouldn’t go there but he did say he felt ‘comfortable’ Iwamura would contribute more than two wins.
So even those I spoke to around the game seem to be divided on the projected value to the Pirates but everyone seemed to like it despite the one-year flavor. I guess I’m on the minority side then.
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Ok, so what happens to the short-term plan now that Iwamura is onboard? The way we’ve seen Huntington plan, I suspect he’ll go into spring training assuming Iwamura is healthy and plays everyday.
Not me.
First the ‘he’s still unhealthy’ theory — the MO of the Pirates the last several years has been to open the year as strong as possible to gather as much ticket sales steam as they can muster, and then start playing the bonehead game. That would mean Iwamura would start at second and LaRoche at third. Somewhere around the magical 61 day mark I’m guessing our luck will run out and Iwamura will end up on the DL forcing LaRoche to second and Alvarez being brought up.
Magically Iwamura will recover around August 1st and if Alvarez is hitting .096 or has a fielding percentage of .750, then he’ll play third while Alvarez is shipped to Indy and LaRoche is left at second. All the while I suspect we’ll be seeing some Ryan Doumit at first base too. Cedeno’s throwing can get a bit crossed but Iwamura and LaRoche have pretty strong and accurate arms which will help Doumit’s transition as well.
Now the ‘he’s healthy’ theory – if Huntington forces Doumit down Kerrigan’s throat as the full-time catcher, and since Iwamura prefers to play third base and probably isn’t going to get that opportunity anywhere except maybe in Pittsburgh, it could be we see LaRoche open the year at second, Iwamura at third especially with his bad leg, and Alvarez open at Indy at third. Then we wait to see how well LaRoche adapts, as well if Iwamura can stay healthy, before making the decision to try and extend Iwamura.
In the meantime and come June, Alvarez will play third, Iwamura or LaRoche at second, Cedeno at short, and take a wild guess who plays first but we’ll assume Pearce and Jones (maybe even Doumit some) platooning for right now until a decision is made about Doumit and/or Clement playing there. That leaves Jones in right with Moss (until Tabata comes up), McCutchen in center, and Milledge in left. Eventually (probably 2011) Tabata takes over in left and Milledge becomes the 4th outfielder.
All wild guesses for now.
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What’s the probability we extend Iwamura? If he’s really healthy, zero. If he’s not healthy, 60%.
By Jake, on October 28, 2009, at 10:28 pm | 11 comments
The big news of the day is the potential move of the Bucs high-1A affiliation from Lynchburg to Sarasota and, ultimately, to Bradenton that has been talked about for more than a year.
I personally love the move for numerous reasons, the most obvious being the consistently warmer climate which should help reduce pitching injuries over the long-term. Not all the facilities around the Florida State League are that great, playing baseball with temperatures at 90 degrees at 7 PM and a humidity level of 80% means field temps will feel well over 100 degrees in many games, and riding busses up the I-4 corridor leave a lot to be desired during the peak summer travel season in Florida, but I’m guessing the players will be happier and it sure will be easier to find good field staff down there.
A positive move in my book. Now I’ll have to sit back and figure out why Nutting allowed this – there has to be some positive cash flow out of the deal, huh?
There’s no reply from the Bucs before I posted this. I’ll update the post if they reply to my e-mails but I suspect it’s much too early for anyone to acknowledge it yet.
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Want to know how we can save 50+ runs on defense next year? I’m guessing you already know the answer … right, remove Ryan Doumit as the full-time catcher and replace him with a defensive oriented receiver, hopefully one that knows the league’s batters.
Sabermetric types will tell you there is no possible way replacing Doumit will reduce runs allowed by 50 or more runs – maybe 10. Maybe. Well, I’m not in that camp. I’ve long believed that a catcher influences the quality of balls in play more significantly than anyone realizes and in Doumit’s case it’s way easy to see. None of the defensive metrics can account for a noisy catcher, none of them can account for a catcher with a poor rapport with the men in blue, and none of them can account for pitchers who just don’t like throwing to a particular guy (and please don’t even attempt to throw CERA at me because I’m not a believer with limited time year-to-year that Doumit has been available).
Not only that but Ryan Doumit has a very strong personality which is likely to only be harnessed on club with a lot of veterans and leadership, some suggest. He’ll thrive in that environment and other clubs are sure to know that.
Now, does our front office have enough guts to move him? That’s another question entirely. Coonelly and Huntington would take a massive PR hit so the return would have to somewhat smooth over the fan base. But that’s just it – Doumit had a horrific year from numerous injuries and a poor offensive showing — can we even deal him for what he is really worth?
I say yes. He’s an injury risk behind the dish and a DH when he doesn’t catch so we’re not going to get a ton for him anyway, but he does have a very sweet contract.. one that makes it pretty easy to deal him.
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Search and Seizure in the Steroids Era: skip down to the latest gab on the United States v. Comprehensive Drug Testing case. A very remarkable decision.
