(編輯於三月 8, 2009, 以展示 荒謬的 the Maholm contract really is.)
我開始認真地想知道海盜新政權有一個長遠的計劃進行。短期一個很容易看到-簽署任何第一年仲裁資格的球員的價值，3年合同。除此之外, 其他一切都模糊。讓我告訴你我的意思.
下面的圖表是一個粗提取數據企圖從我的項目的軟件向您展示在海盜在長期週期。這是根據我自己的球員價值的假設最終的 2008 季節，這就是為什麼你看不到Karstens, Ohlendorf, 和其他幾名球員，我個人不相信持有長期價值。加, 我用我的假設，以填補在某些時段給你一些感覺在何時何球員來來去去。你可以在同一個圖表在家中，插上的球員和你喜歡的時限,只是一定要發揚已知的合同。
無論哪個名字您插上, 或者在你堵塞, 當你扔在海盜目前的短期模型，您會獲得一個雜亂的長期混亂 (四年多了)。
Consider this.. 的概率是多少桑切斯和威爾遜仍然會在這裡 2011?右邊, 非常接近於零。因此堵塞兩個中間的內場新人開始，至少在2011年。而且在某些時候McCutchen, 阿爾瓦雷斯, 田和將要拿出這樣的新秀插件太.
開始得到它的感覺?這肯定是一個赫克了很多新人奔波於我們的 “老將” 投手在未來幾年時間裡, 並在重要位置了。所以，如果海盜們將獲得更多的競爭力一路, 他們要么必須這樣做之前，整個防禦成為rookie'ville, 或之前，我們所有的首發與任何經驗休假.
以一分鐘，圖表出來使用自己的球員, 然後再回來閱讀其餘本.
右邊,長期的計劃正變得越來越分散，每3年的合同簽訂。海盜重點似乎並不在建立長期計劃, 重點是簽署仲裁資格的球員在其最低成本價值的第一年ARB的。換言之, 我們看到所有的短期計劃是海盜利用他們的地位，保持工資盡可能低每年.
不建立一個長期的競爭力俱樂部.
海盜經常提到釀酒作為一個模型，他們喜歡，但他們很少提供多種交易，直至今年第二年ARB的，而且幾乎總是鎖定為廣大青年的關鍵年，包括兩名自由球員，兩年多如瑞安布勞恩 (8 年, 4500萬美元) 和比爾館 (4 年, 2400萬美元，另加一年一家具樂部的選擇), 而其他青年等待處理至少在今年第一次套利像哈, 布什, 科菲,和麥凱倫。菲爾德是明顯的例外.
Look around the game.. 這不僅是釀酒, 幾乎所有的球隊鎖定了關鍵角色長期購買多歲的自由球員。隨著地位的球員這一點容易得多投手誰更經常破裂, 但俱樂部沒有俱樂部提供多種選擇年投手，讓他們在公司內部, 而且很少，他們提供了一個多一年的合同，直到第二年ARB的。
這只是聰明的長期商業意識.
不是海盜。也是唯一一個我們沒有提供給 (或者如果我們推出, 只有接受) 瑞安Doumit是誰agreeed兩個俱樂部的選擇，只要兩年海盜行使他們都在一年。如何奇怪的是，?
我們的長遠模式正在採取打擊與這些3年, 今年第一套利交易. 我知道我們的球員可以要求額外年後在路上，但是這是一個風險，我們不應該承擔。投入阿爾瓦雷斯的奇特6年，和- I -計劃到運行所謂快它，使得，你的頭旋MLB交易, 而且我們沒有任何結果。
直到該組織開始考慮長遠, 代理人和球員將繼續拒絕購買導致第一年選秀了6年, 關鍵球員簽字放棄不超過1年的自由球員 (這是在我們處理他們無論如何使無用), 和球員的年生產重挫後，得到他們的大筆交易。這是一個正常的週期已經太久了，要突破.
這是我作為一個球迷，預計從弗蘭克Coonelly被僱用。到目前為止它不是任何人工作的家庭，但納丁.
傑克, shouldn’t Alvarez be w/ the club through the 2014 賽季? 也, no faith in Walker or Laroche to contribute to the club in any way eh?
When the Pirates get players of Braun’s caliber on it’s roster, things may change. Right now they’re wrapping up lesser talent for a satisfactory period. In a way, it’s business as usual, but the players are getting fatter contracts upfront. Good business? I’m not sure. It may become different if Alvarez, 兒茶, 田端, etc pan out. From what I understand Maholm is getting an option year for his first year of F.A. So it’s actually a 4 year deal for him. To me, it’s a good deal for mgmt and the player.
On another front: you’ve expressed a desire to sign Veritek. What do you think about Pudge instead? Cheaper, same offensive numbers, reasonable leadership, still calls a good game.
謝謝.
Isn’t ‘09 AdamLa’s last arb year?
I think we also need to keep in mind that every year we will add players thru the draft and free agency. This deal makes sense for all parties because this helps to set the budget for this year and beyond. Good chart.
帳單
It is SP however there’s no quality replacement inside or out so it might be wise to offer him arb. If he declines we could get a sand. pick out of it.
傑克
As usual great post. Just a thought… do you think the timing of the collective bargaining agreement expiring after the 2011 season has any play in the decisions that Coonelly makes now? Maybe all those years in the mlb office he may know something.
I agree with you that we HAVE to buy out free agency years, unless the rules of the game are about to change.
thoughts?
I don’t see any young players that warrant being signed for any extended time. You do that to players who you can build a team around and I just don’t see it.
Maholm? At best, he is a 3rd starter. No reason to drop the bank on him.
McClouth – Average outfielder at best.
Doumit – Average
The list goes on. This team is so depleted of good, young talent, let’s not reach for players who you can’t really build a team around.
阿爾瓦雷斯, McCutchen, or Tabata might be our first hope of locking down a player long term, a player that is worthy.
Signing Maholm for 5 years will not make this team any better.
Good job nailing another contract Jake, you’re getting pretty good at those. Put me down for wishing Maholm had given the Pirates five years too because I’m not as comfortable with our pitching depth.
Well Jake, i found ya. Good Model for the future of the Buccos. So many parts missing for the future hopefully Huntington can keep drafting well like he did in year 1 Alvarez was the pick for the first round not the Pirates fault he’s been lazy in his working out and keeping in shape. Pirates need more guys in the 20-22 range like they have in A-Cutch, 布萊恩莫里斯, 何田, and so on and so on. Maybe they should go the route of drafting more high schoolers with mulitple tools sure it takes longer to get them up to the bigs 3/4 years our college drafting of late has been garbage except for this year. I would like to see the Pirates grabbing some of the unsigned talent out of the venezulan and dominican winter leagues there was a few pitchers i saw that had better numbers then a lot of AA-AAA talent we had.
傑克, what is your take on platooning? With the Hinske signing they now have some interesting platoon opportunities. Hinske/AnLaroche, Pearce/AdLaroche, and Monroe/Morgan are obvious matches. I’m not sure how Russell feels about platooning, but I think it should be considered. Given AdLaroche’s struggles to start the seasons, what would hurt sitting him periodically (more than in the past)against lefties. Many players got adjusted to the ML by platooning in the past. Today players are rushed, exposed, and judged too quickly. A platoon would push the players, give them a better chance of success, and help the bench with pitching changes late in the game. It would also keep your bench players fresher. Hopefully AnLaroche would force Russell to play him everyday with his play and AdLaroche would improve his stats and do the same thus increasing his trade value. Just some ideas.
Surprised they cut Beam lose. He seemed better than Sanchez and Hanson. More moves coming??
帳單
傑克, do you think if either Laroche struggles that Hinske sees more time at either 3rd/1b in the early going.
Okay let be honest, no matter how you look at it the Pirates future is bleak. They have some decent young talent, but they either aren’t good enough to make significant contributions, will leave through free agency once they do, or will be too old to contribute long term once the team does become competitive. But that is not the worst of it for the Pirates. They don’t sign ANYONE! And even if they wanted to, no good free agent wants to play for the Pirates. Let’s look at this off season. Rocco Baldelli (he was destined to sing with the Red Sox from the start, but he still counts) Ty Wigington, Daniel Caberra, and Pedro Martinez all either signed somewhere else, or will. And No player wants to come be a Pirate because they know they won’t win. And as for the youth movement, remember when the Pirates got Freddy Sanchez? I do, he was a stud prospect with the Red Sox. Know he is an injured ageing 3B who won’t be with the team much longer (I think he will rebound this year btw, so the Pirates would be stupid to rid themselves of him). Here’s how the Pirates get better. Continue the youth movement, and sign a few good players (I like the Hinske signing). They obviously won’t be competitive right away, but a sign of improvement plus a veteran presence will help the rebuilding/youth movement, and make them look better in the eyes of free agents. The next few drafts will be of extreme importance for the Pirates. Draft a few guys who could have an impact in the next few years and suddenly the future is bright (speaking of which, how come is it that the Red Sox were able to hire Bill James, one of the best stats guys in baseball history, and have pumped out stud prospects over the last 6 年: John Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, and now Jed Lowire. THE PIRATES ALWAYS DRAFT BEFORE THE RED SOX. OH and I forgot the biggest prospect to come from the Sox farm system, Hanley Ramirez). 在 5 年 (maybe sooner) the Pirates should be a playoff contender. I will admit I am a Red Sox, but this offseason I have taken an interest in the Pirate because they are always so bad, and I hoped them might improve this year. 但是, I don’t see it happening. SO until the Pirates start rewarding you for you loyalty, pick another team and root for them. Red Sox Nation is always looking for fans! My condolences (I honestly hope the Pirates get better.)
I think outside of McLouth Arbitration case the Buccos budget is pretty much done for the offseason they wont bring in a GCL (gas can looper) or pedro they will go with the semi youth pitching staff of maholm, 斯內爾, gorzo, Karstens, and zach duke probably.
Thanks Jake, glad to be here.
Here’s an idea. WHy don’t the Pirates trade for someone like Delmon Young from the twins? Don’t get me wrong, he’s not a superstar, but he is a solid OF who hit .290 last year. 也, 他的 10 HR and 69 RIB aren’t bad considering it was only his 3erd year, and at 24 there is no way he has reached his cealing. He is an established young player who makes less the 2M, and the Twins are, and have been trying to trade him.
Edwin Jackson would also have been a good target. Sure he didn’t have the best season last year, but he was goog enough 14-11 recored, and still 26.
Another guy I like, and no one will probably agree with this, Lastings Miledge. Much like Young he wasn’t great last year, but he’s cheap, a five tool player, and at 24 could be a very good player in a couple of years, at the very least I believe a solid bench player who can hit for power and steal bases.
I don’t think the Pirates should sign Looper, and I am not sure about Pedro either, he’s just toooooo OLD. 儘管, if Pedro does sign with the Pirates, I will still view it as a step in the right direction, by adding a veteran presence.
但是, the best move the Pirates made all offseason was adding Joe Kerrigan as their pitching coach. I had a bad expirence with him when he was with the Red Sox (and he was a TERRIBLE manager, so if they wind up looking for one, don’t pull for Kerrigan) but he can wok wonders with pitchers. He made David Cone a 9 game winner in Boston after that 4-14 season he had in NY. Point is the Pirates have a good pitching coach who can really help YOUNG pitchers.
That is why I think letting Danial Caberra sign somewhere else was the biggest mistake both the Pirates and Caberra this offseason. He might not pitch well somewhere else, but I think is would have with the Pirates.
I agree it is time to get rid of Snell, and Wilson. 但是, I wouldn’t rule out signing pitching. Infact I woulden’t rule anything out. Because the Pirates are in the situation they are in now, they really just need to improve. Before the Pirates can be a liget contender they are going to need to seriously fix their image. Unfortunately no one takes them seriously, and why should they. They lose every year. But I agree, having someone who can hit for power in the OF is important. So why not trade for Carl Crawford? I am pretty sure the Rays were trying to deal him at the deadline last year, and though he only hit 8 HR last year, he was banged up and I think will play better next year. He is also someone who’s going to hit lost to 90 打點, steal a TON of bases and hit at or close to .300, and did I mention he’s still only 27. The Mariners are looking to trade Adrian Beltra, he hits for power and if Seattle is willing to eat some of his salary then he might be worth looking into. and he’s only 30. I also really like Jeremy Hermida of the Marlins. I know Hermida would be expensive to get through trade, but if I were a Pirates fan, it would make me feel better just to know my team considered it. Another guy I think they should at the very least keep an eye on is Andrew Jones. Yea he was more then terrible last year, but signing him to a low cost high incentive deal would work for two reasons. 一個, it gives the Pirates a low cost power hitter who can bring fans into the stadium, and he can be cut at any point if he doesn’t produce. Two, if he does meet all of his incentives and becomes to expensive for the Pirates he can be traded at midseason to a team looking for someone to put them over the top, and the pirates will get more prospects then he is worth. I also think they should have signed John Garland, he’s not the greatest pitcher ever, but he has been consistent and is good for 12-15 獲勝. He was expensive at 6 mill, but at some point this franchise is going to have to spend some money. 在 29, Garland should still be pitching well in 4 years when the Pirates (I would hope) start contending for the playoffs.
yes Brian.. 2014. I did the post in the middle of the night so I got middle of the night results trying to read the export from my project software.
Andy LaRoche or Neil Walker? 在, I’m not in the camp that believes they will be contributing enough to warrant a starting position. But that’s me.
Pudge? Not for me. 是的, Adam’s out of here after 2009 but I have him inked for one additional year in my personal short-term plan.
backfin – 在, I think the agreement will remain much like we know it today for one reason – the game is too flush with cash. I’m hearing the two sides aren’t agreeing on second year FA year values so that’s why it isn’t getting done.
And I agree, you HAVE to buy out FA years at discounted pricing. That’s how you move forward whether you keep the player at that reduced cost or have more tradable equity.
billy, if Maholm is a #3 as you suggest, then why would you not attempt to lock him up for two of his FA years at an overall reduced cost? That’s just smart biz of baseball.
As for for statement “I don’t see any young players that warrant being signed for any extended time” – that’s subjective of course and I respect your opinion.
I happen to believe Maholm is one of the few that warrant that look.. his arm action is clean, mechanics smooth, he’s taken the heat off our staff for three solid years by matching up against opposing team aces more than any other pitcher we have, and his numbers continue to improve. 在, he’s not an ace and, 是, he doesn’t miss enough bats to be sexy, but as long as he keeps the ball on the ground he’s always going to hold value. But that’s me. 好東西.
hey Mike.. long time no see. High school arms are intriguing to me but few clubs like to go that route, for obvious reasons. But I’d take a few from the 20th round on. HS bats, 是啊。. all day if they have ‘da toolz.
I’m not a big believer in Latin arms. The good ones we can’t afford so the few eyes we have over there will have to dig them out before they hatch, if you get my drift.
Good to see you again.
I don’t think you platoon Hinske in the NLCD natky.. he plays where needed without that consideration unless there is crafty oldtimer southpaw on the mound and then he probably sits. As for LaRoche, he plays. Period. 結束的故事. His salary is the reason.
Another thing about platooning.. you take ABs from youth or devalue veteran players by doing that. As for Morgan’s AB, I don’t think the brass is too worried about losing his but I think there’s still a chance they are after an OF. 耐心等待.
Thanks Charles.. I had him at $16M/3 and he signed at $13.75M/3. That’s not close, but thanks the same
T.J Beam was cut wow?, He’s better then the Big Chief Romulo Sanchez, and Craig Hansen he served a legit purpose last year long relief for those horrid starting performances, i think the only reason he was cut he will be turning 29, they want to go i guess with wild things of the pen instead. The only hope is that Daniel McCutchen wins a bully spot so we dont see either one in the pen.
I’m not surprised.. he’ll probably float thru the wire and end up back in Indy. No loss if he doesn’t.
Mike – my opinion only but they both have to play in my book. Hinske isn’t signed to take AB from Andy’s development in the league and we can’t afford to devalue Adam. I think Hinske gets his AB in LF.
> will admit I am a Red Sox, but this offseason I have taken an interest in the Pirate because they are always so bad, and I hoped them might improve this year..
Misery loves company! Welcome to the ship Adam.
agreed, other than a LF possibility.
I haven’t followed Young since his Rays days but his youthful ways wouldn’t seem to fit the Pirates new “Christian culture” we have brewing. I always liked the guy myself.. scrappy, intense, but immature at times. Jackson’s heater runs too straight – he’d get mauled in the NLCD with the short parks.
Milledge and McCutchen in the OF together is intriguing but I’d like to see more power from my RH corner OF myself.
I don’t think we sign a pitcher unless we have designs to finally get rid of Snell which is what we should have done years ago. And yeah, Kerrigan is a great teacher by example, as is Perry Hill. Both are quality field instructors and good guys.
We upgraded at least one area coaching staff with Hill and Kerrigan. Huntington did his best to put a bench together for about what 7 mil didn’t do as bad of a job as last year.